STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 29

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 29, 2008

DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME = 22

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those who predicted the Dow's precipitous return on Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 26, 2008

Dow... 8,515.55 +47.07 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq... 1,530.24 +5.34 (+0.35%)
S&P 500... 872.80 +4.65 (+0.54%)
Gold future... 871.20 +23.20 (+2.66%)
30-Year Bond 2.61% -0.04 (-1.58%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.14% -0.04 (-1.93%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

Handy Links

Calculated Risk    Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    The Big Picture    Atrios    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Financial Sense    LegitGov

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Neither a WrapUp nor goobermental reports available today (nt)

[Hugin]

2. Nice new look for the SMW Ozy!

A facelift for the New Year?


:thumbsup:

[ozymandius]

4. Thank you.

I had some free time this weekend to play around with the code sheet. Since Bush is about to become history fodder then the time seemed right to start turning the corner on the SMW. Please share any comments about the data included in the main page.

At the end of Bush's term, I feel it may be appropriate to condense his rotten economic record into a single text box. It can be something of a shrine to his era's rottenness.

Links at the bottom will eventually expand.

ozy

[Hugin]

8. Looks like a good layout to me!

If I had to fiscally sum up the Booosh years in one graphic... I would use TalkingDog's
Mushroom upon Anti-Mushroom wealth distribution chart as the clearest picture of the
state of things.

Also, as I've begun hearing this crisis being called a "Jobs and Wages" crisis. If you can
find a chart illustrating the current status of that metric, it might be good to include.
Although, I'm averse to portraying jobs/wages in the same manner as an Index or Commodity.
(Odd that I can't think of an existing labor chart off-hand... and telling. :/ )

I think it's a great idea to include the list of resource links! :D

[ozymandius]

9. "Jobs and Wages" crisis

I'm sure that has been produced - it seems so familiar. If someone runs across that graphic, or even the basic numerical data, please let me know. That would be a fitting addition to the wrapup on the Bush years: how much wages have fallen and how many jobs have either been lost or translated into lower wage positions.

I'm not sure I've seen TalkingDog's graphic.

Edit: I also wish to add that I've had a devil of a time with the DU html coding. I like to use tables when I construct a web page. That is no longer an option here at DU. Elad nixed the tables feature some time ago because it caused problems when people forgot to close the table with the end tag. So I spent a great deal of time researching hidden code commands that will work with the HTML format that DU uses. The HTML lookup table is hardly exhaustive.

[radfringe]

12. It can be something of a shrine to his era's rottenness.

I'll second that idea with 2 shoes... :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

14. It is my sole regret (pun intended)

that the shoe-thrower had not stepped in a fresh pile of dog poo before flinging his shoes at The Beast.

[Dr.Phool]

22. How do we know he didn't?

:evilgrin: :rofl:

[ozymandius]

24. My arabic is a bit rusty. But he did say something about "a dog".

eom

[DemReadingDU]

Nice, Thank you!

[ozymandius]

13. Speaking of that thing: 72% of Conservatives Still Support Bush

PRINCETON, NJ -- George W. Bush remains popular among conservative Republicans (72% approve of him) despite his low overall approval rating. Meanwhile, moderate and liberal Republicans are as likely to disapprove as to approve of the job he is doing, and Democrats of all political orientations hold Bush in low regard.

-see graphic-

These results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Dec. 1-9, including interviews with more than 9,000 U.S. adults.

During this time, Bush has averaged 29% job approval among all Americans -- reflecting a slight improvement from the 25% approval rating he had at the time of the November election, yet still dismal by historical standards.

....

Implications

As Bush serves his final weeks in office, he does so with the support of a small minority of Americans. Conservative Republicans essentially stand alone in their solid support of Bush. However, over the years, Bush has lost a significant number of supporters even among this core group, which formerly supported him at better than 90%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113083/Conservative-Republicans-Still-Widely-Support-Bush.aspx

[54anickel]

32. I dunno Ozy, where did they come up with all of those subgroups? What's the

new definition of conservative in that divide? The fiscal conservatives gave Bush the boot long ago so who's left to wear that title? Where do folks like Chuck Hagel fit in now? Must be those "moral conservatives" have been given sole custody of the conservative label now. The rest are now a bunch of "whimp-ass Modrits 'n Librils"

Somehow this seems like an attempt to explain the large number of Republicans for Obama and that "Implications" section is another shot at revisionism for his legacy. :eyes: Then again, you could take it to show that he never really had the huge support and approval ratings among a wider sampling of Republicans to begin with.

[ozymandius]

36. The sampling metrics are a mystery to me. Although I imagine that

many who disapprove are fair-weather Republican fans. I have met a few of those who, like some sports fans, carry the GOP pom-poms when the party is doing well but evaporate when the team starts doing poorly. Sadly, support for a political party can be that shallow.

The Bush Republicans overtly, loudly played the social conservatives as suckers. Perhaps we see a portion of that percentage removing their support because Bush is not conservative enough for them.

[Demeter]

38. You HAVE to Be Shallow to Be a Republican

Ignorance makes you a rock-ribbed Republican. Any capacity for critical thinking automatically disqualifies one for the party.

[Tansy_Gold]

43. Yay! You're here!

I was worried about you after seeing the weather/power reports from Michigan.

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

15. I second that!

Very nice Ozy. :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

17. Thank you Julie!

I much appreciate you saying. I hope you and your kids enjoyed your holiday time.

:hi: Ozy

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Excellent job, Ozy!

Is there a way you could set up a box that would show the stats for BOTH the day booooosh took office and the day we're finally rid of the stinking POS? That way we could see how horrible he was and have a starting point for the new administration? I know you said tables are difficult to do and it might require a table for a side-by-side comparison. . . . :shrug: Just a thought.


I heard much of Michigan is without electricity as a result of storms, so we may not hear from Demeter for a while. Here's hoping she and hers are all okay, keepin' warm and dry and safe.




Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

28. That would be ideal.

I've sent an e-mail to Elad asking his assistance. The absence of table codes makes structuring the page much more challenging than it otherwise should be.

Opening and closing stats on Bush's tenure are a given. I suppose that I could create a graphic and post it on a free image hosting site. I have a Picasa account. I don't know what the bandwidth restrictions are there.

[Roland99]

33. I have lots of domain space on my various domains.

I'm sure the graphic wouldn't be too big (KB-wise) and could possibly host it if Picasa gives you fits.


BTW, it does look much nicer. Cleaner. More concise.

Just like I think our new admin will be! :-)

[ozymandius]

39. Thank you Roland.

I will keep you offer in mind as an option. That's very gracious of you. Any graphic that I create will be lightweight. Dialup internet users are still around and dialup limitations remain a consideration when assembling this thread.

[Demeter]

37. I've Got Power, and Phone and DSL

Never lost the power, although the church behind us did. There's something to be said for underground cables: less likely to fail in a crisis. Although I have to wonder how big the phone break was, since the phones are underground here, too.

It's cold, crisp, and the ground is surprisingly naked, after a foot of snow vanished overnight. I have a hangover from the party, but not alcohol-induced. Now I have to argue with a plumber about the humidifier, loss of which is excruciating, and clear up the laundry, dishes, etc., that didn't get done while doing Xmas...

[ozymandius]

Excellent news, Demeter. Glad you're okay!

Plus it's wonderful to see your new computer is fully functional.

Ozy :hi:

[Demeter]

42. It's like getting new glasses in the proper strength

I don't feel crippled anymore.

[AnneD]

58. Welcome ....

to the land of the living. Good to have you back.

[Wednesdays]

47. I like the new layout too

For one thing, it looks like we're getting ready for the day that * is not mentioned in the header (just 22 days, woo hoo!). Now, *'s effects will still be felt for decades, but at least we won't have to read about how he's POTUS any longer. :woohoo:

[AnneD]

54. Morning Marketeers......

:donut:and lurkers. Kudos on the new look Ozy. The quick link is a handy addition:thumbsup: Out with the old and in with the new eh. Bush and his gang can't be assigned to the dust bin of history fast enough and I STILL want to see these POS tried and sentenced for their crimes against this country and humanity.We should remember him if only as a cautionary tale about how close we are to losing our Democracy. We have much work at hand and need to roll up our sleeves tighten our belts and get busy.

I opened the newspaper yesterday and read the list of the graduates of the class of 2008. I hadn't heard of (or remembered) the death of Yves St Laurent or Tony Snow. We lost some great comedians too, George Carlin, Bernie Mac and Harvey Korman come to mind. In honour of Carlin-I'll start a digital file of the deceased. I'll miss him the most I think.

I am thinking of the resolutions I will make this year-the personal and the public. This is the time for reflection, the deeper the better. I don't think we as a country and a people do that enough.

It is also the time to reassess your portfolios too, esp. in this investment environment. Thank goodness for the SWT as it is a good source of information. I am thinking by the first quarter-we will have a good idea of which way Obama will go. Keep your eyes open nd your ears to the ground folks.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil jumps to near $40 as Israel-Gaza clash widens

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $40 a barrel Monday in Asia, jumping for a second trading day as a widening conflict between Israel and Gaza raised tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.99 to $39.70 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore. The contract on Friday rose $2.36 to settle at $37.71.

Israel expanded its deadliest-ever air offensive against Gaza's Hamas rulers Sunday and prepared for a possible ground invasion. Arab leaders protested the attacks and Syria broke off indirect peace talks with the Jewish state.

....

Oil prices have fallen 73 percent since peaking at $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as a credit crisis in the U.S. sparked a steep drop-off in consumer demand and corporate earnings. Analysts expect more dismal economic news from the fourth quarter over the next few weeks.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 3.16 cents to 88 cents a gallon. Heating oil gained 3.30 cents to $1.28 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery jumped 12.4 cents to $5.99 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Europe, Asia markets advance in thin holiday trade

PARIS – European stock markets advanced in thin holiday trade Monday helped by gains in commodities stocks. Asian stocks rose moderately.

In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 gained 2.3 percent, or 95.79 points, to 4,312.38. Germany's DAX was up 1.9 percent, or 86.25, at 4,715.63, and France's CAC 40 climbed 0.9 percent, or 28.96, to 3,145.17.

....

Oil majors gained, with Britain's BP PLC 4.2 percent higher at 517 pence ($7.58), Royal Dutch Shell up 1.23 percent at euro18.57 ($26.01), and France's Total SA up 2.48 percent at euro38.98.

In Asia, markets closed modestly higher. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 stock average edged higher by 7.65 points, or a bare 0.1 percent, to close at 8,747.17, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1 percent to 14,328.48.

U.S. futures suggested a higher open on Wall Street. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 38, or 0.45 percent, to 8,510, while Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 3.30, or 0.38 percent, to 872.20.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081229/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

6. China stocks fall on supply, earnings fears

SHANGHAI, China – Chinese shares drifted lower Monday, with little fresh news to distract investors from worries over a flood of newly tradable shares and bleak corporate earnings prospects.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.1 percent, or just 1.04 points, to 1,850.48. The Shenzhen Composite Index of China's second, smaller market fell 0.7 percent to 565.17.

Analysts said there were signs the government was seeking to stabilize the market.

.....

Prices have fallen for six straight sessions amid mounting worries over the release of billions of previously untraded shares into the market as lockup periods expire. Gloomy expectations for corporate earnings due for release in coming weeks have added to the pessimism.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081229/ap_on_bi_ge/as_china_markets

[ozymandius]

7. GM supplier Delphi suspends work at China factory

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- U.S. car parts maker Delphi Corp. has suspended work at a factory in Suzhou due to shrinking demand amid the global economic slump, a media report and a staff member said Monday.

The factory west of Shanghai in the city of Suzhou makes compressors for General Motors Corp. Calls to the plant rang unanswered Monday.

"The sudden and unprecedented decline in (car) sales globally has resulted in our only customer, General Motors North America, announcing plant closures and plant stoppages," the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post quoted a Delphi internal document as saying.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-supplier-Delphi-suspends-apf-13924993.html

[Festivito]

10. Debt: 12/24/2008 10,586,589,075,929.30 (DOWN 15,182,266,277.80) (Mostly FICA.)

(Again, except for FICA, another almost imperceptible change.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,359,775,642,515.06 + 4,226,813,433,414.28
DOWN 121,597,338.38 + DOWN 15,060,668,939.39
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -3,075,925,218.22.
The average for the last 30 days would be -2,255,678,493.36.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 58 reports in 85 days of FY2009 averaging 9.69B$ per report, 6.61B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 27 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.5 and 10.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/24/2008 10,586,589,075,929.30 GWB (UP 4,858,393,279,747.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 561,864,179,016.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/04/2008 -022,902,653,130.86 -
12/05/2008 -000,187,074,568.06 ---
12/08/2008 -000,759,942,653.72 --- Mon
12/09/2008 +000,031,558,514.41 ------------*******
12/10/2008 +000,087,731,393.17 ------------*******
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---

-74,777,154,424.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $921,957,272,670.23 in last 97 days.
That's 922B$ in 97 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 91% of that highest year ever only in 97 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 97 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3659622&mesg_id=3659665

[Festivito]

62. Debt: 12/26/2008 10,552,775,879,227.10 (DOWN 33,813,196,702.20) (Mostly Public!)

(There seem a paydown on the debt lately. Perhaps they are just trying not to have such a big number left behind themselves for posterity's sake.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,323,447,047,871.14 + 4,229,328,831,356.00
DOWN 36,328,594,643.92 + UP 2,515,397,941.72
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is -4,530,556,006.53.
The average for the last 30 days would be -3,171,389,204.57.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 59 reports in 87 days of FY2009 averaging 8.95B$ per report, 6.07B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 25 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.5 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/26/2008 10,552,775,879,227.10 GWB (UP 4,824,580,083,045.53 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 528,050,982,314.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/05/2008 -000,187,074,568.06 ---
12/08/2008 -000,759,942,653.72 --- Mon
12/09/2008 +000,031,558,514.41 ------------*******
12/10/2008 +000,087,731,393.17 ------------*******
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -

-88,203,095,937.87 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $888,144,075,968.03 in last 99 days.
That's 888B$ in 99 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 87% of that highest year ever only in 99 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 99 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3662881&mesg_id=3662971

[DemReadingDU]

66. Paydown on the debt?

How do they do that? I thought we'd stay over a trillion, but there's still 3 weeks left remaining in Bush's term.

[Festivito]

68. More notes finish term than are resold.

If they don't need the cash flow right now, it makes me wonder why.

[ozymandius]

11. Rohm & Haas Stock Falls As Dow Chem Deal in Kuwait Scuttled

Rohm & Haas Co. (ROH) stock price tumbled before the opening bell after Kuwait scuttled a multibillion-dollar joint-venture deal with Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) that was set to take effect Thursday, potentially complicating the $15.3 billion acquisition of the specialty chemical maker.

Rohm & Haas shares were down 16% to $53.55 in pre-market trading. Dow Chemical was off 0.4% to $18.85.

....

The collapse of the deal could complicate matters for Dow and its chief executive, Andrew N. Liveris. He had hoped to use the proceeds to finance the purchase of Rohm & Haas, which makes coatings and electronic materials. In a conference call with analysts in October, Dow Chemical said it intended to tap various sources of funding to complete the deal, including a $13 billion bridge loan, $4 billion from other investors, and proceeds from the Kuwait joint venture.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200812290712DOWJONESDJONLINE000162_FORTUNE5.htm

[ozymandius]

16. “If you were dead, they would still give you a loan”

from The Big Picture:

Interesting article in the Sunday NYTimes about WaMu, the company that could not say no. The Times missed a golden opportunity to proclaim a major bank a “slut” – any opportunity one gets to do so should be taken without hesitation.

And just how slutty were WaMu’s loans? By the first half of this year, the value of its bad lending had reached $11.5 billion. Here’s why:

WaMu pressed sales agents to pump out loans while disregarding borrowers’ incomes and assets, according to former employees. The bank set up what insiders described as a system of dubious legality that enabled real estate agents to collect fees of more than $10,000 for bringing in borrowers, sometimes making the agents more beholden to WaMu than they were to their clients.

WaMu gave mortgage brokers handsome commissions for selling the riskiest loans, which carried higher fees, bolstering profits and ultimately the compensation of the bank’s executives. WaMu pressured appraisers to provide inflated property values that made loans appear less risky, enabling Wall Street to bundle them more easily for sale to investors.

Why the disregard for traditional lending standards, the risky mortgages, the lending to unqualified people? Was it the CRA or Fannie/Freddie? To the contrary, it was a relentless drive for sales volume and market share. Loan officers were givens 100s of new loans per day, ensuring review and oversight were minimal. Investigating into loan apps was actively discouraged.

....

Here’s the ugliness:

The ARM Loan Niche: WaMu’s retail mortgage office in Downey, Calif., specialized in selling option ARMs to Latino customers who spoke little English and depended on advice from real estate brokers, according to a former sales agent who requested anonymity because he was still in the mortgage business.

According to that agent, WaMu turned real estate agents into a pipeline for loan applications by enabling them to collect “referral fees” for clients who became WaMu borrowers.

Buyers were typically oblivious to agents’ fees, the agent said, and agents rarely explained the loan terms. “Their Realtor was their trusted friend,” the agent said. “The Realtors would sell them on a minimum payment, and that was an outright lie.”

This is predatory lending. The FBI, which has already arrested over 1000 people, should be hunting for all of these dirtbags, clawback any and all commissions from them — then toss them in jail.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/if-you-were-dead-they-would-still-give-you-a-loan/

[Demeter]

41. Imagine: If the Private Prisons Were Full of Bush-Era White Collar Criminals

suddenly the business world would be hiring, at deflated salaries, no doubt, and ethics would be chic. Quality and service would go up, up, up. So would stocks, as companies would record accurately their financial status, and start to do real productivity.

The financial sector would shrink to a shadow of its bloated self, and all those paper pushers would not join the unemployed, but the incarcerated.

It would be Through the Looking Glass, indeed!

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.934 Change -1.056 (-1.36%)

US Dollar Consolidation Could Yield Breakouts as Liquidity Returns

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Consolidation_Could_Yield_1230316722818.html

The US dollar has spent the past week consolidating within thin ranges, as low volumes did little to spark directional trade. This left the greenback down 1 percent against the euro and up roughly 1.5 percent versus the British pound and Japanese yen by Friday’s close. In the coming week, the US markets will be closed on January 1 for New Year’s Day, and low liquidity conditions could persist as scattered financial markets around the globe will also be closed on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, there will be a bit of event risk on hand, leaving potential open for volatility to pick up a bit.

On Tuesday at 9:00 ET, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the month of October is anticipated to fall by a record 17.8 percent from a year earlier, highlighting the extent of the collapse in the US housing sector. At 10:00 ET, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for the month of December is expected to edge up to 45.5 from 44.9. This would mark the second improvement in a row, but it’s necessary to keep these figures in perspective, as the record low of 38.8 going back to 1967 was just realized in October, down significantly from the index’s average of more than 100 throughout 2006 and 2007. Indeed, the outlook for consumption remains bleak, especially as aggressive discounting by retailers was not able to prevent holiday spending from slumping 4 percent in December from a year earlier (excluding gasoline), according to SpendingPulse. On Wednesday, initial and continuing jobless claims are likely to hold near their highest levels since late-1982, boding ill for the January 9 release of US non-farm payrolls. Finally, on Friday, the Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing conditions during December may fall to the lowest levels since 1982, while the record low of 29.4 reached in May 1980 looms close below.



...more...

Euro Rises As Economy Shows Signs Of Stabilizing, Pound Stumbles On Consumer Spending Outlook

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Rises_As_Economy_Shows_1230547058988.html

The Euro rallied above 1.4250 on comments from German Finance minister Peer Steinbruek and French GDP showing growth in the third quarter. The German finance minister told the Hannover-based Neue Presse newspaper that Germany is situated to handle the current economic crisis and that the country has yet to decide on the size of the next stimulus package that is expected in January. Meanwhile, the final 3Q French GDP reading confirmed the preliminary print of 0.1% growth.

Signs that the Euro-zone’s two biggest economies are proving to be more resilient than expected, has lowered expectations that the ECB will resume its current easing policy. Falling oil prices and inflation led to an increase in French consumer spending which drove growth in the third quarter offsetting declining manufacturing activity. Indeed, the German Finance minister also cited the drop in prices as the source for his optimism as real disposable incomes rise. However, we saw Italian business confidence fall to a record low of 66.6, which continues the trend that we saw in Germany and France. If businesses continue to slash payrolls to reduce expenses, consumer spending may begin to weaken and weigh on domestic growth. Another test of the 200-Day SMA is a possibility, but until we see a break above this technical level the downside risks remain.

The Pound pared earlier gains dropping over 100 points, as the outlook for consumer spending took a significant blow. A Guardian/ICM poll said 86% of Britons will make spending cutbacks in 2009. Additionally, 43% of firms polled by the British Chamber of Commerce plan to freeze wages and salaries in 2009, which has lowered expectations for domestic growth. The declining housing market has also added to the decline in wealth, which led to Britons putting in £5.7 Billion into their homes according to the BoE housing equity withdrawal report. It was the most since records began in 1970 signaling that spending on big ticket items like cars and vacations will halt as households refrain from pulling equity from their homes.

An empty economic calendar will leave dollar price action at the mercy of risk flows today. Despite a bout of risk aversion due to violence in the Middle East the dollar didn’t benefit from the increased risk aversion which saw oil and gold shoot higher. The thin holiday trading could lead to increased volatility as institutional buyers have a greater impact on price action. Bargain hunting could drive equity markets higher today and the resulting risk appetite may weigh on the greenback. Additionally, as the dollar continues to trade more on fundamentals the weak holiday shopping season may lower growth expectations for 2009 and add to dollar selling.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Dollar rocked by Middle East violence

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081229/bs_afp/forexeurope

LONDON (AFP) – The dollar fell versus the euro and yen on Monday, weighed down by escalating violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, dealing a further blow to the US economy, dealers said.

In late morning trading, the European single currency jumped to 1.4278 dollars from 1.4025 dollars in New York late on Friday.

Against the Japanese unit, the dollar dropped to 90.44 yen from 90.78 yen on Friday.

Israel's Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Monday that Israel was in an "all-out war against Hamas" as the Jewish state continued its massive bombardment of the Islamist movement's installations in Gaza.

The dollar often faces selling pressure during conflicts in the Middle East which highlight Washington's heavy reliance on the volatile region's oil, with crude prices also rising as a result.

"The developments in the Middle East are likely to keep fuelling the euro at least for a day or two," Yuji Saito, head of foreign exchange at Societe Generale, told Dow Jones Newswires.

The European single currency meanwhile rose to an all-time high against sterling at 0.9722 pounds, putting parity within sight.

"The euro will probably touch parity with sterling in two weeks," Saito said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

21. Europeans see euro trumping dollar

The euro could overtake the dollar in global importance in the next five years, a large majority of continental Europeans believe, according to a poll days before Europe’s monetary union reaches its 10th birthday.

The striking display of faith in the euro, revealed in an FT/Harris poll published on Monday, follows recent rises in the currency’s value that have brought it close to parity with the pound.

....

The survey showed that Europeans would welcome a further expansion of the eurozone beyond its 15 members, but highlighted fears among consumers that the euro has fuelled inflation – which they believe the European Central Bank has failed to control effectively.

Since its launch on January 1 1999, the euro has grown steadily in international importance, increasing its share of official foreign reserves and its role in capital markets. The value of euro notes in circulation has also surpassed the value of dollar bills.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3883bfa0-d539-11dd-b967-000077b07658.html

[ozymandius]

20. Krugman: Fifty Herbert Hoovers

No modern American president would repeat the fiscal mistake of 1932, in which the federal government tried to balance its budget in the face of a severe recession. The Obama administration will put deficit concerns on hold while it fights the economic crisis.

But even as Washington tries to rescue the economy, the nation will be reeling from the actions of 50 Herbert Hoovers — state governors who are slashing spending in a time of recession, often at the expense both of their most vulnerable constituents and of the nation’s economic future.

.....

It’s true that the economy is currently shrinking. But that’s the result of a slump in private spending. It makes no sense to add to the problem by cutting public spending, too.

.....

So why are we doing this to ourselves?

The answer, of course, is that state and local government revenues are plunging along with the economy — and unlike the federal government, lower-level governments can’t borrow their way through the crisis. Partly that’s because these governments, unlike the feds, are subject to balanced-budget rules. But even if they weren’t, running temporary deficits would be difficult. Investors, driven by fear, are refusing to buy anything except federal debt, and those states that can borrow at all are being forced to pay punitive interest rates.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

[ozymandius]

23. Holy Moley! Look at these bank inflow-outflow charts!

The collapse of financial globalization …

The last six months — if not the last year — logged what felt like a decade’s worth of financial news. So perhaps it isn’t surprising that swings that normally would attract an enormous amount of attention have gone almost unnoticed. Like the near-total collapse of private capital flows.

Private capital inflows to the US and private capital outflows from the US have collapsed. They have gone from a peak of around 15% of US GDP to around zero in a remarkably short period of time …

....

But even if “private” Treasury purchases since mid-2007 are counted there still would have been a stunning fall in private capital flows. Direct investment flows have continued. Other financial flows though have largely gone in reverse, with investors selling what they previously bought. In the third quarter foreign investors sold about $90b of US securities (excluding Treasuries) and Americans sold about $85 billion of foreign securities. And the reversal in bank flows on both sides (as past loans have been called) has been absolutely brutal.

link for the charts

[Demeter]

44. A Financial Analyst Said As Much on NPR Yesterday

The only entity doing any lending is the Federal Govt. Maybe we should keep it that way--shut down private banks, nationalize them, put the Fed out of business and Paulson and Greenspan into prison, and start acting like fiscally responsible adults.

Not sure of the details, but it's interesting thought project...

[ozymandius]

25. Private Equity Firms Are Near Deal to Buy IndyMac

IndyMac Bancorp, one of the largest banks to fail as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, is close to being sold to a consortium of private equity and hedge fund firms in a complex deal partly financed by the federal government, people involved in the deal said.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, along with a team of former Lehman Brothers bankers who are now with Deutsche Bank and Barclays Capital, has been engaged in the sale process since federal regulators declared IndyMac insolvent in July and seized the company.

The deal is in the final stages of negotiations, which are private, and could be announced as early as Monday, these people said, though they cautioned that the talks could still fall apart.

....

The team of buyers include the private equity firms J. C. Flowers & Company and Dune Capital Management and the hedge fund Paulson & Company, the people involved in the deal said. It was unclear exactly how much capital the buyers would inject into IndyMac, but they would be shouldering a portion of the losses the bank may have on mortgages and other assets, these people said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/business/29indymac.html

[UpInArms]

26. Made-Off with the Money: Credit Suisse clients may have lost $925.9 mln on Madoff: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4BR19920081229

ZURICH (Reuters) - Credit Suisse clients may have lost up to 1 billion Swiss francs ($925.9 million) on investments connected to accused swindler Bernard Madoff, newspaper Sonntag reported on Sunday.

Without giving details of its sources, Sonntag reported that internal forecasts at Credit Suisse showed that customers of Switzerland's second-largest bank could have lost 0.9-1.0 billion francs in the Madoff case.

Credit Suisse spokesman Jan Vonder Muehll said: "Credit Suisse did not actively recommend or sell products invested with Bernard Madoff.

"Furthermore, none of the funds of hedge funds offered by Credit Suisse contained holdings in Madoff funds."

Authorities say Wall Street fund manager Madoff has confessed to running a $50 billion fraud that ensnared investors and charities around the world.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

29. Following the Mad(off) money

I noticed one report over the holiday break that said forensic accountants were trying to track where the money actually went, but there wasn't a whole lot of information other than large sums had been sent to some banks and large sums had come back.

There seems to be some cone of silence on that particular part of the "investigation." If anyone has reported on Madoff's lifestyle, his lavish homes and/or parties, I haven't seen it. Was he another Dennis Kozlowski, jetting his friends to million dollar birthday parties in Rome with champagne-pissing ice sculptures? Did he have $6,000 shower curtains? A yacht? A Ken Lay style "cottage" in Aspen?


In a Ponzi scheme, the new incoming money goes out to pay the old investors, so some of them did get some of their money back. How much? Who were they?

I think this story is going to get a lot more interesting.


Maybe.




Tansy Gold, the eternally curious

[radfringe]

30. The Monday Morning Madoff Update

The Monday Morning Madoff Update
http://cityfile.com/dailyfile/3654

• Lawyers for Madoff may be planning to mount an insanity defense if the case goes to trial.
• Madoff has until Wednesday to provide a list of all investments, loans, lines of credit, brokerage accounts and other holdings to the SEC.
• In the meantime, forensic accountants are looking into whether Madoff sent large sums of money to offshore accounts in places like the Caribbean.
• Not surprisingly, l'affaire Madoff should keep a long list of lawyers very busy for a very long time.
• Although Latin Americans are believed to have been big losers in Madoff's scheme, very few have come forward to acknowledge the losses.
• A burglar stole a $10,000 statue from Madoff's Palm Beach estate.
• Bernie Madoff's most famous neighbor, Matt Lauer, isn't so thrilled by the reporters camped outside their building on East 64th Street.

[Hugin]

49. Okay, how long do think it'll take before there's a TeeVee Series about "Forensic Accountants"?

What do you suppose it'll be called?

"CSI: Wall Street"?

"Waiting for Goldot"?

It's rich with possibilities.

[radfringe]

53. not too far off

there's a "reality" show coming up soon about Homeland security... camera follows Homeland Security around, like COPS etc..

[Tansy_Gold]

60. Yeah,and then there's "Smile, You're Under Arrest," featuring

Joe Arpaio, America's Toughest Sheriff, coming soon to a fux station near you.



I kid you not,





Tansy gold

[Tansy_Gold]

31. Madoff probe widens to middlemen

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24852598-36375,00.html

INVESTIGATORS probing the Bernard Madoff investment scandal are beginning to turn their attentions to the middlemen who attracted billions of investment dollars to Mr Madoff's funds, said a person familiar with the Government effort.

Authorities are interested in what the middlemen told clients about how their money was being invested, said this person, and whether they disclosed Mr Madoff's involvement in managing client funds. There are no allegations that these go-betweens, or feeders, knew anything about Mr Madoff's scheme.

At last count, wealthy individuals, foundations and banking giants have disclosed some $US30 billion ($44 billion) of losses at the hands of Mr Madoff, who has himself claimed potential losses of up to $US50 billion. The middlemen also say they've been victimised and have lost sizeable personal
fortunes.



Portraits of five investors follow. At least some of the "middlemen" sound like they're about as crooked as Madoff. I don't think there will be any "lone gunman" theory here, any more than in the sub-prime mortgage scheme. These people were/are too "smart" not to have known what was going on.

[Tansy_Gold]

35. Ben Stein: They told me that Madoff never lost money

Ben Stein isn't one of my favorite people, and I'm not sure he REALLY practices what he preaches in this little essay, but he does make some valid points.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28every.html?_r=1

<snip>
I have never heard of an entity that could make money in all kinds of markets consistently, year in and year out. Yet we continue to believe that there will be one. It is, like much else in finance, a myth that will not die. I have never heard of a financial manager who promised to be able to defeat the markets anytime he chose and who, in fact, was able to do so. Even Mr. Buffett says repeatedly that he will have losing years and losing stretches of years. (Wow, is he right this year.)

* * * *

We are more than our investments. We are more than the year-to-year or day-by-day changes in our net worth. We are what we do for charity. We are how we treat our family and friends. We are how we treat our dogs and cats. We are what we do for our community and our nation. If you had $100 million or $100,000 a year ago and now you have a lot less, you are still the same person. You are not a balance sheet, at least not one denominated in money, as was explained to me recently.

Losing and making money are not moral issues so long as you are being honest. You may have a lot less money as this year ends than you did two years ago. But you are just as good or bad a person as you were then. It is a myth that money determines who you are, and if you have gotten over that myth by now, then 2008 will have been a very good year.

<end>


TG

[Demeter]

45. I Dunno about That "Same Person" Philosophy

Events change us.

--the sadder but wiser (not to mention older and a lot more cranky) Demeter.

[specimenfred1984]

46. The very embodiment of why Nazis existed

becomes more understandable everyday.

[Dr.Phool]

48. Madoff claims that he knew how to "middle" the bookies regularly.

For people unfamiliar with football wagering, a "middle" is a rare opportunity to put a dent in the bookie's bottom line. And it's not without a minimal risk.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Two investors talk about losing millions in Madoff scandal

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/business/epaper/2008/12/27/madoff1228.html?cxntlid=inform_sr


<snip>
Tel Aviv money manager Laura Goldman likewise grew suspicious of Madoff. When she lived in Palm Beach in the 1990s, Goldman happened to meet Madoff at Green's Pharmacy.

They struck up a conversation and agreed to a business meeting at The Breakers, where Madoff urged Goldman to bring her clients to his fund. But Goldman found it odd that Madoff told her that clients were lucky to invest with him, and that he would say nothing about his investing strategy or his favorite stocks.

"That was my first clue that he was a little off," Goldman said.

She later made a few phone calls to options traders and learned that none of them was trading options for Madoff, which she found curious, given his huge portfolio.

In 2001, after Barron's and trade publication MAR/Hedge ran articles questioning Madoff's returns, Goldman mailed copies to members of the Palm Beach Country Club. The reaction wasn't what she expected.

"Those people were so hostile to me," Goldman recalled. "They said I was jealous. They said the publications were anti-Semitic. Jews had more faith in Bernie Madoff than they did in God."

<end snip>


Emphasis by


Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

34. Martin Weiss: 12 Urgent Questions From Readers

12/29/08 Martin Weiss: 12 Urgent Questions From Readers for 2009

1. Q: I see disturbing similarities between this crisis and The Great Depression. Both were triggered by the bursting of massive debt bubbles, for instance. But this time, the government is doing so much more to pump up the economy. So is it safe to assume that this crisis will be a lot less severe than the 1930s?

A: No, it’s not safe to make that assumption. True, the government’s massive intervention is a major factor. But there are also powerful factors that can offset or even overwhelm the government’s impact:
more...

2. Q. A major factor that deepened the Great Depression was the Smoot-Hawley Act, which helped set off a global trade war as each nation rushed to protect its own domestic market. But today, it’s unlikely we will repeat that mistake. So doesn’t that imply a less severe decline?

A: Yes, it does.
more...

3. Q. The Fed is now printing money like it was going out of style. Overall, the U.S. Government has now committed $8.5 trillion in bailouts, handouts, and guarantees to stop the crisis. Won’t that lead to hyperinflation and the destruction of the U.S. dollar?

A: Only if governments succeed in overcoming the deflationary forces that have gripped the world. However, in our recent Deflation Survival Briefing, we demonstrated that the deflationary forces are now hundreds of times more powerful than the government’s attempts to reflate.
more...

4. Q. Why are you so pessimistic? Isn’t there a silver lining in this crisis?

A: It’s those who believe in the destruction of the dollar that are the true pessimists. In contrast, I am very optimistic that Washington will not only fail to overcome the deflation, but it will also …
more... (lists 7 more failures)

5. Q. Investors can’t help but notice that Washington views certain companies as “too big to fail.”; Doesn’t that create a de-facto government guarantee for their stocks and bonds, making them almost as good as Treasuries?

A: No. Regardless of any government guarantees, most investors recognize they’re not nearly as good as Treasuries.
more...

6. Q. This is not a question, just a point of anger. CEOs of failing companies are getting their year-end bonuses, sometimes running into the tens of millions of dollars. And at companies that have benefitted from government bailouts, those bonuses are being paid with MY MONEY!

A: I am equally angered. But this trend will end and do so very abruptly. Even if companies are not trying to qualify for government money, you will soon see their executives either accepting drastic cuts in their compensation or getting canned.

7. Q: I have an employment question: Which industries are likely to produce the greatest lay-offs? Which kinds of jobs are likely to continue to be reliable for myself and my kids?

A: Lay-offs will be across the board — financial, manufacturing, services, even states and municipalities. Virtually no private-sector or local-government job will be secure.
more...

8. Q. You’ve written that this depression will be short and severe and that the recovery will come quickly. Elsewhere, you’ve compared it to the Japanese malaise that has lasted for nearly two decades. Which is it? The answer is crucial to me because it will determine how much extra money I’ll need to continue paying the bills and to keep my family secure until this crisis ends.

A: What I’ve written is that we hope and pray we can get it over with quickly and move on to better times. Unfortunately, the reality is that, to the degree that the government continues to intervene, it can only prolong the agony.
more...

9. Q. With unemployment nearly doubling and consumer spending cratering, you’d think we’d be seeing headlines about record numbers of corporate and personal bankruptcies. Why haven’t we?

A. It looks like you missed them,
more...

10. Q. Now I understand why you were pressing me to pay off my debts for all these years! But if I follow your advice now, I won’t have any cash reserves left to see my family through. And if I don’t pay them off, they will cost me more and more as my dollars become scarcer and more valuable. I’m between a rock and a hard place. What do I do?

A: First, take advantage of this temporary government-inspired decline in fixed 30-year mortgage rates to refinance immediately. Grab this opportunity while you can because it will not last for long. Second, pay off all of your high-interest credit cards. Third, sock away every extra penny you save in interest to build a cash nest-egg in short-term Treasuries or a Treasury-only money market fund.

11. Q. Everybody agrees that this crisis will eventually end. We’ll reach rock-bottom, money will begin moving again, and the recovery will commence. When that happens, what impact will the trillions of dollars Washington has injected into the economy have? Will this great deflation be followed by an even greater wave of inflation? Is there something to do now to prepare for that?

A. It’s too soon to prepare for what happens AFTER this crisis. First, let’s cope with the deflation. Later, if that changes, you’ll have plenty of time to adjust, and we’ll be there to warn you with as much advance notice as we can.

12. Q. A year ago, my retirement nest-egg was in great shape — plenty of money to see me through my golden years. Now, it’s a smoking gun and I’m staring down the barrel at — who knows? — years, possibly a decade or more, in which stocks are likely to continue to languish or even plunge. I may never be able to retire. My best friend had already retired; now, he’s looking for a job just to survive — so far, no luck. Is there hope for us?

A. Yes!
more...

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/12-urgent-questions-for-2009-2-29016

[Hugin]

50. Pretty good discussion... I've heard alternate opinions on the negative impact of 'Smoot-Hawley'

though. Most notably on Thom Hartmann's radio show a couple of weeks ago.

His claim was the Act and it's protectionism of American Labor was a good
thing for Americans in the long run.

I can't recall all of the details of the interchange. But, it's worth thinking
about.

Here's one article where he discusses it:

"Democracy - Not 'The Free Market' - Will Save America's Middle Class"
by Thom Hartmann

"When conservatives rail in the media of the dangers of "returning to Smoot Hawley, which created the Great Depression," all they do is reveal their ignorance of economics and history. The Smoot-Hawley tariff legislation, which increased taxes on some imported goods by a third to two-thirds to protect American industries, was signed into law on June 17, 1930, well into the Great Depression. In the following two years, international trade dropped from 6 percent of GNP to roughly 2 percent of GNP (between 1930 and 1932), but most of that was the result of the depression going worldwide, not Smoot-Hawley. The main result of Smoot-Hawley was that American businesses now had strong financial incentives to do business with other American companies, rather than bring in products made with cheaper foreign labor: Americans started trading with other Americans.

Smoot-Hawley "protectionist" legislation did not cause the Great Depression, and while it may have had a slight short-term negative effect on the economy ("1.4 percent at most" according to many historians) its long-term effect was to bring American jobs back to America."


From here... http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0312-08.htm

[DemReadingDU]

51. Not heard much about Smoot-Hawley Act

Thanks for the article!


more from wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley_Tariff_Act

[TrogL]

52. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-11-17 Monday, November 17 0.8188 USD
2008-11-18 Tuesday, November 18 0.817194 USD
2008-11-19 Wednesday, November 19 0.808407 USD
2008-11-20 Thursday, November 20 0.77821 USD
2008-11-21 Friday, November 21 0.778271 USD
2008-11-24 Monday, November 24 0.816593 USD
2008-11-25 Tuesday, November 25 0.818733 USD
2008-11-26 Wednesday, November 26 0.810504 USD
2008-11-27 Thursday, November 27 0.810504 USD
2008-11-28 Friday, November 28 0.809061 USD
2008-12-01 Monday, December 1 0.808407 USD
2008-12-02 Tuesday, December 2 0.805023 USD
2008-12-03 Wednesday, December 3 0.795355 USD
2008-12-04 Thursday, December 4 0.797448 USD
2008-12-05 Friday, December 5 0.770951 USD
2008-12-08 Monday, December 8 0.795545 USD
2008-12-09 Tuesday, December 9 0.793525 USD
2008-12-10 Wednesday, December 10 0.796622 USD
2008-12-11 Thursday, December 11 0.820951 USD
2008-12-12 Friday, December 12 0.803019 USD
2008-12-15 Monday, December 15 0.809717 USD
2008-12-16 Tuesday, December 16 0.817127 USD
2008-12-17 Wednesday, December 17 0.829325 USD
2008-12-18 Thursday, December 18 0.835981 USD
2008-12-19 Friday, December 19 0.814797 USD
2008-12-22 Monday, December 22 0.820479 USD
2008-12-23 Tuesday, December 23 0.822368 USD
2008-12-24 Wednesday, December 24 0.824742 USD
2008-12-25 Thursday, December 25 0.824742 USD
2008-12-26 Friday, December 26 0.819202 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8216 0.8218 0.8183 0.8218 +0.0034 +0.42% 12:01 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8199 0.8199 0.8199 0.8199 +0.0022 +0.27% 08:20 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.7792 0.7792 0.7792 0.8192 -0.0090 -1.10% set 15:08 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.8207 0.8207        0.8209 -0.0089 -1.08% set 15:08 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.8040 0.8040 0.8040 0.8220 -0.0088 -1.07% set 15:08 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8227 -0.0089 -1.08% set 15:08 
CD.M10 Jun 2010 0.8234 0.8234 0.8234 0.8234 -0.0090 -1.09% set 15:08 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8803 0.8803 0.8803 0.8803 +0.0607 +6.90%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 1.4569 1.4573 1.4553 1.4553 -0.0108 -0.74%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 0.9442 0.9477 0.9438 0.9580 +0.0093 +0.97% 
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 128.55 129.30 128.55 128.55 +1.58 +1.24%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H09.E Mar 2009 (E) 1.42520 1.42780 1.41660 1.41660 +0.01255 +0.89%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.25. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at 80.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 81.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.96.

Analysis

Yes, I'm back. Holidays are over. Turns out my mother (who turned 90 Dec 27th) is a complete economics junkie - spends her days watching Business News Network. Unfortunately she doesn't have internet so can't access my website.

Morning drivein said the TSX was doing well due to rising energy stocks.

[antigop]

55. Charities: Foundation of Madoff's scheme?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/29/news/newsmakers/zuckoff_madoff.fortune/index.htm
By targeting charities, the alleged swindler could avoid the threat of sudden or unexpected withdrawals, argues an expert on Ponzi schemes.

One of the most vexing questions in the Bernard Madoff scandal is, "How did he get away with it for so long?" A disturbing answer might be found in an unexpected place - the predictable nature of some of his hardest-hit investors.

Reports suggest that Madoff may have been a swindler for decades, using the Ponzi-scheme method of paying old investors with money from new ones. Most such frauds collapse within a year or two, as withdrawals exceed deposits, or regulators get wise. Eponymous schemer Charles Ponzi was in business for only eight months in 1920 before somnolent regulators were spurred to action by skeptical journalists.

Regulatory failures surely played a role in Madoff's longevity - the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission has apologized and promised an investigation into how examiners missed years of flaming arrows pointing toward Madoff.

But that doesn't explain the structural "success" that Madoff enjoyed for so long. One possible answer is that years ago Madoff solved the two interlocking puzzles that usually prevent Ponzi schemes from becoming perpetual money machines: sustaining growth while maintaining stability.

The growth half of the equation is the easier part, and plenty has been written about how Madoff continually enticed new investors through a veneer of exclusivity and respectability, and the absence of volatility. The second half is trickier. When running a Ponzi scheme, how does one avoid enormous, unexpected withdrawals - runs on the bank, so to speak - that would pull back the curtain and reveal a little man blowing smoke?

[KoKo]

56. Kerkorian's Tracinda sold off remaining Ford shares

Reuters
Kerkorian's Tracinda sold off remaining Ford shares
Monday December 29, 2:12 pm ET

DETROIT (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian has sold off all of his remaining shares of Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F - News), a spokeswoman for his investment firm, Tracinda Corp, said on Monday.

Tracinda, which briefly ranked as Ford's largest outside investor earlier this year, said in a regulatory filing in October that it had begun working with bankers to sell the 133.5 million shares of the No. 2 U.S. automaker it still held at that time.

It was not immediately clear when Tracinda had completed those remaining sales of Ford stock.

Kerkorian's final pullout from Ford completed a costly retreat for the activist investor, who has a mixed track record with investments at all three Detroit-based automakers.

[antigop]

57. Today's Non-sequitur

[AnneD]

59. Boy.....

does that toon ever tell it like it is. First, it was us small investors feeling the pain. Now some of the Big Boys aren't the Masters of the Universe as much as the are chumps too. Maybe will will start seeing useful change in the market place-like a not so invisible cop on the street corner.

[AnneD]

61. The Beneficiaries of the Downturn

There’s money to be made from poverty. That may sound uncharitable, especially at this time of year. But the fact is, when people lose their jobs, buy cheaper goods and default on their loans, someone has to do the dirty work — and those companies can get well paid for doing it.

So we at breakingviews.com developed the Poor Getting Poorer Index — a basket of 22 equal-weighted stocks that includes the retailers, white-label manufacturers, repossession agencies, dollar stores, pawnshops and other public companies poised to capitalize on rising poverty. This year the index would have generated a positive return of about 9 percent, easily outperforming the 40 percent decline of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index.

In 2005, Citigroup equity strategists coined the term “plutonomy” to describe economies powered by a relatively small number of rich people. They also devised their own basket of luxury stocks like Bulgari, Porsche and Sotheby’s. Now, with unemployment rising and wages weakening, the downward pressure on the American consumer seems a better bet than the ascent of the gilded class.

So where is gold to be dug from the widening mire? Let’s start with retailers. After all, notwithstanding the economic situation, shopping is an American pastime. Yet splurges at the fancier department stores that anchor malls are being replaced by carefully choreographed outings to discounters.

Among them, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar place great emphasis on how far a single greenback can go. Though Dollar Tree has already had a 60 percent gain in its shares, the stock trades at a relative low that is 15 times its 2010 fiscal year earnings estimates. Family Dollar fetches just 14 times next year’s earnings.

more......


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/business/29views.html?_r=1&ref=business


Food for thought....

[Roland99]

63. At the close - All red (but just a flesh wound)

DJIA 8,483.93 -31.62 -0.37%
Nasdaq 1,510.32 -19.92 -1.30%
S&P 500 869.42 -3.38 -0.39%
Global Dow 1,488.29 -9.50 -0.64%
Dow Util 358.58 -0.85 -0.24%
NYSE 5,534.64 -3.55 -0.06%
AMEX 1,353.95 +7.05 +0.52%
Russell 2000 466.15 -10.62 -2.23%
Semcond 201.95 -0.05 -0.02%
Gold future 875.30 +4.10 +0.47%
30-Year Bond 2.63% +0.01 +0.46%
10-Year Bond 2.10% -0.04 -1.92%

[Joe Chi Minh]

64. I posted this to another thread, but I suspect this might be the most

appropriate home for it, with minor adaptations.

The gentlemen alluded to below appear to be endowed with a most unusual degree of common sense and decency, far too much to preside over any major financial aspect of the nation's economy.

In tonight's Edinburgh Evening News the following brief letter by an Alex Orr, appeared.

"Given the recent research that indicates orangutans help each other get food by trading tokens of different values, but only if help goes in both directions, it is they who should maybe be put in charge of the international banking system."

Well, promised adequate bonuses and golden parachutes, might they not also be co-opted to decide the most propitious ways in which the money should be allotted, to boost the economy. I don't think they would do it for peanuts. They seem to have a better grasp of appropriate remuneration than our Brightest and Best. (Oh, by the way, the headline was: "Orangutans should take on finances.")

Our new "Masters of the Universe", I expect they'd go through the Fed and the Treasury like the wrath of God. I daren't even think what they'd do to the maestros of Goldman Sachs.

What did Darwin know....? I always said he should have stuck to theology.

[ozymandius]

65. test

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 30, 2008

DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME = 21

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those who predicted the Dow's precipitous return on Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 29, 2008

Dow... 8,483.93 -31.62 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq... 1,510.32 -19.92 (-1.30%)
S&P 500... 869.42 -3.38 (-0.39%)
Gold future... 875.30 +4.10 (+0.47%)
30-Year Bond 2.63% +0.01 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.10% -0.04 (-1.92%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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[Hugin]

67. Time travel?

Any reports today? :lol: