STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 3

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 3, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 48
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2590 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2887
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 2, 2008

Dow... 8,419.09 +270.00 (+3.21%)
Nasdaq... 1,449.80 +51.73 (+3.70%)
S&P 500... 848.81 +32.60 (+3.99%)
Gold future... 783.30 +6.50 (+0.84%)
30-Year Bond 3.20% -0.03 (-1.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.69% -0.03 (-0.96%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Tracking the "OFFICIAL" Recession
Will we see a Double Dip?
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

So it’s official. Big Surprise! The US Economy is in recession. Did we really need the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to help us out on that one? Going back to April 2007 and June 2007 with our articles, “Several Gauges of Recession” and “Signs of a Gathering Storm” it was clear that the economy was starting to roll over into a period of contraction and recession.

However, while many believe that the NBER was politically compromised in not wanting to acknowledge an official recession during an election year, the organization has otherwise done a good job over the years in tracking the relative start and end points of economic contractions, even if their calls have come somewhat after the fact. From their latest press release entitled, “Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity” the NBER Committee identified Q4 2007 as the official beginning of the current contraction.

.....

In my view, a more accurate forecast might suggest that a “35 to 40” month economic contraction makes more sense, implying that the present period of great financial turmult may not end until early 2011. Yet, in contemplating these figures, a repeat of the 1980 to 1982 scenario in my view is starting to make the most sense. This is the so called “Double-Dip” recession outcome, where we may see an important economic “statistical low” in the early portion of 2009 (say April, May 2009), followed by a lengthy statistical rebound (perhaps 12 months – i.e. May 2010), followed in turn by a second, even more strongly declining contraction phase beginning in the latter half of 2010.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

---

I will take issue with Mr. Barbera in that he says the Great Depression only lasted 43 months.

[tclambert]

12. Went through definition of the Great Depression yesterday.

After 43 months it hit bottom and GDP began to rise. That's why some say it lasted only 43 months. But of course full recovery took much longer. GDP continued to rise until March, 1937, turned down for 13 months, and then began to rise again in May, 1938, lasting through February of 1945. Full recovery was not achieved until after that second "recession." It depends on how you define recovery, too. With me, it's always jobs first and last. The giant government jobs program known as WWII was the real cure.

I have to agree with you, it seems very odd to say the Great Depression ended the moment it hit bottom.

[Hugin]

46. Very good.

I'd like to see some time scaled comparison of these two events. Much has been made about the difference in the
overall size of the markets in value, but, there has been very little comparison of the time-lines.

I'm also interested in a discussion of what a 'recovery' would look like. It's doubtful that it'll appear as an
instantaneous leap back up to the previous highs. Events have shown leaps like that are unsustainable and tend
to persist for a very short time.

IMHO... A real 'recovery' will begin when the jobs and wage numbers improve substantially. Hopefully, this
stimulus package being shopped by President Obama will be a lead-in to such a scenario.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Nov
Consensus -200K

08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q3
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 0.9%
Prior 1.1%

10:00 ISM Services Nov
Briefing.com 43.5
Consensus 42.0
Prior 44.4

14:00 Fed's Beige Book

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Dr.Phool]

18. Why does ADP even bother? They always wrong.

Not just wrong, but usually way wrong. Who pays for their shit stats anyway?

ISM Services data should be a doozy this time. Or is that Duzy?

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. Nov. ADP employment index down 250,000 as expected

01. CORRECT: U.S. Nov. ADP biggest jobs decline since Nov. 2001
8:40 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

04. U.S. Nov. ADP employment index down 250,000 as expected
8:16 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

[UpInArms]

32. Revised 3Q US Productivity @ 1.3% (rev'd upward - working harder - fear driven?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-productivity-revised-slightly-higher/story.aspx?guid=%7BFF8ED7D1%2DDB3B%2D42DD%2DA070%2D6CA4838CA2B2%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The productivity of U.S. workers was slightly stronger in the third quarter than previously reported, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Productivity in nonfarm businesses increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the quarter, not 1.1%. Unit labor costs, a key gauge of wage-price pressures, rose 2.8%, not 3.6%. In the past year, productivity has risen 2.1%, while unit labor costs are up 1.4%. Real hourly compensation fell 1.6%. In the nonfinancial corporate sector, productivity is up 3.5% in the past year, with unit labor costs up 0.2%, real hourly compensation down 1.2%, and unit profits down 6.7%.

[Roland99]

47. U.S. Nov. ISM services falls to all-time-low 37.3%

U.S. Nov. ISM services falls to all-time-low 37.3%
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B38DE3752%2DC182%2D4A43%2DB0EE%2DB31AE916F357%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy contracted at a record pace during November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.3% from 44.4% in October. The decline was broad-based with 17 out of 18 industries reported contraction The decline was larger than expected. Economists were looking the index to fall to 42.7%. The major sub-indexes also set record lows. The business activity index fell to 33.0% in November from 44.2% in the previous month. New orders fell to 35.4% from 41.5%. The employment index fell to 31.3% from 41.5%. Inflation pressures eased. The price index plunged to 36.6% from 53.4% in the previous month.

[UpInArms]

53. more info - Services contracting at the worst pace ever

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-services-sector-contracting-record/story.aspx?guid=%7B527E17EC%2D8CF9%2D4604%2D904A%2DB18A338DD327%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Non-manufacturing companies in the United States were contracting in November at the fastest pace on record, according to a survey of companies released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.3% from 44.4% in October. It's the lowest level since the survey began in 1997.

Readings below 50% in the diffusion index indicate more firms are contracting than expanding. In November, only one industry - health care - reported growth.

On Monday, the group reported that the ISM manufacturing index also plunged in November to 36.2%, the lowest level since May 1982. Economists said this confirmed that the recession may be protracted. The Fed is wrestling with how to respond now that its short-term interest rate tool is so close to zero, according to James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Fed. See full story.

Comments from purchasing managers were mostly concerned with how long the recession would last, the ISM said.

<snip>

All the major sub-indexes fell to record lows in the month.

The new-orders index fell in November to 35.4% from 44.0% in October.

Business activity index fell to 33.0% from 44.2% in October.

The prices-paid index plunged to 36.6% in November from 53.4% in the previous month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. U.S. Nov. ISM services index record 37.3% vs 44.4 in Oct.

20. U.S. Nov. ISM services employment 31.3% vs 41.5% in Oct.
10:04 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

21. U.S. Nov. ISM services below consensus 42.7%
10:01 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

22. U.S. Nov. ISM services index record 37.3% vs 44.4 in Oct.
10:01 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

[cosmicdot]

63. PMI at 36.2%

Manufacturing contracted in November as the PMI registered 36.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 38.9 percent reported in October. This is the lowest reading since May 1982 when the PMI registered 35.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates contraction in both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through November (46.8 percent) corresponds to a 1.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for November (36.2 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 1.5 percent decrease in real GDP annually."

~more~

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm

Average for 12 months — 46.9
High — 50.7
Low — 36.2

Leading economic indicator, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 36.2

Table/history ~ This table contains the PMI number since the report began in 1948:
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=10752&navItemNumber=12961

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

The two industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products. The industries reporting contraction in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Wood Products.
``````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````

ISM's New Orders Index registered 27.9 percent in November, 4.3 percentage points lower than the 32.2 percent registered in October. This is the lowest reading for this index since June 1980 when the index was at 24.2 percent. A New Orders Index above 51.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

``````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````

Production

ISM's Production Index decreased to 31.5 percent in November, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the 34.1 percent reported in October. An index above 49.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

Of the industries reporting in November, only one registered growth: Paper Products. The industries failing to grow in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Wood Products.
````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````



Q: How is the PMI calculated, and what does it mean?
A: The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for the following five indicators at equal weights:
New Orders 20%
Production 20%
Employment 20%
Supplier Deliveries 20%
Inventories 20%

[UpInArms]

75. Fed's Beige Book:

46. Signs of labor market weakness abound, Fed report
2:00 PM ET, Dec 03, 2008

47. Price pressures easing in light of weak sales, Fed report
2:00 PM ET, Dec 03, 2008

48. Fed reports finds less bank lending, higher loan standards
2:00 PM ET, Dec 03, 2008

49. Fed Beige Book comments generally negative in tone
2:00 PM ET, Dec 03, 2008

50. U.S. economy weakened across entire country: Fed report
2:00 PM ET, Dec 03, 2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEQ00044720081203

WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Economic activity has weakened across the United States since early October, while price pressures have eased with declines in retail and energy prices, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

The Fed's Beige Book summary portrayed grim conditions in most areas of economic activity.

Labor markets weakened as firms in many districts reported accelerating layoffs. Wage pressures were largely subdued, the Fed said.

Consumer spending slumped, with retail sales decreasing and vehicle sales falling off sharply in most regions of the country.

The report collected data before Nov. 24.

Earlier this week, a panel of experts formally declared the U.S. economy in recession since December 2007. The Fed is expected to lower benchmark interest rates by a half-percentage point to 0.5 percent at its next scheduled policy meeting Dec. 15-16.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises slightly after plunging to 3-year low

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose slightly Wednesday in Asia after hitting a three-year low overnight as investors tried to gauge how much the slowing U.S. and Chinese economies will hurt demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up 84 cents to $47.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell $2.32 overnight to settle at $46.96, after touching $46.82, the lowest level since hitting $46.20 intraday on May 20, 2005.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.48 cents to $1.07 a gallon. Heating oil gained 0.96 cent to $1.59 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery was up 1.0 cents to 6.43 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

51. Petroleum Inventories:

17. U.S. gasoline inventories fall 1.6 mln barrels last week
10:36 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

18. U.S. distillate stocks down 1.7 mln barrels in latest week
10:36 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

19. U.S. crude inventories fall 400,000 barrels last week: EIA
10:35 AM ET, Dec 03, 2008

[ozymandius]

4. World markets mixed despite Wall Street rebound

SEOUL, South Korea – World markets were mixed Wednesday, failing to get much impetus from Wall Street's rebound as pervasive concerns about the dismal outlook for the world economy dominated sentiment.

Most Asian stock markets crept higher but major European bourses opened lower and futures pointed to a weak session on Wall Street.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 1.8 percent, or 140.41 points, to 8,004.10 and benchmark indexes in Hong Kong, China, Australia, Singapore and India also inched higher as investors nibbled on shares after broad declines the day before.

South Korea bucked the trend with the key index down 0.1 percent and Taiwan's benchmark fell 1.1 percent. Britian's FTSE-100 was down 1 percent, Germany's DAX slipped 2.3 percent and France's CAC-40 retreated 2.2 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081203/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

5. Congress eyes Big Three automakers' survival plans

WASHINGTON – Detroit's Big Three auto executives have ditched their corporate jets for hybrid cars and replaced vague pleas for federal help with detailed requests for as much as $34 billion in their second crack at persuading Congress to throw their struggling companies a lifeline.

Congressional leaders are reviewing three separate survival plans from Chrysler LLC, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. as they weigh whether to call lawmakers back to Washington for a special session next week to vote on an auto bailout.

In blueprints delivered to Capitol Hill on Tuesday, GM and Chrysler said they needed an immediate infusion of government cash to last until New Year's, and both said they could drag the entire industry down if they fail. Ford is requesting a $9 billion "standby line of credit" that it says it doesn't expect to use unless one of the other Big Three goes belly up.

But Chrysler said it needed $7 billion by year's end just to keep running. And GM asked for an immediate $4 billion as the first installment of a $12 billion loan, plus a $6 billion line of credit it might need if economic conditions worsen. The two painted the direst portraits to date — including the prospects of shuttered factories and massive job losses — of what could happen if Congress doesn't quickly step in.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081203/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_autos

[ozymandius]

6. Low demand for travel has Delta cutting

Economic conditions chilled demand for air travel this season, prompting Delta Air Lines to cut back operations as much as 8% for 2009 and reduce staffing.

The cuts will affect flight operations at Delta and its subsidiary, Northwest Airlines, which combined are Detroit Metro Airport's largest passenger carrier. That means consumers may not find discounted, cheap fares that were available in the past.

Delta officials said Tuesday that operations will decrease up to 10% in U.S. operations and as much as 5% in international flights. However, the company declined to say what the effect would be on Metro Airport, which is the combined airline's second-largest hub.

Ed Bastian, president of Delta and chief executive for Northwest, said the company is positioning to absorb an unprecedented drop in demand. That decline started in October for Delta.

http://www.freep.com/article/20081203/BUSINESS05/812030319

[ozymandius]

7. 100-Year Bonds?

Today’s WTF article is this clever funding idea, via former Treasury undersecretary (now at BlackRock) Peter Fisher: Issue 100-year bonds.

“If you issued a 100-year bond and had principal and interest pay down smoothly over the last 50 years, you create a great borrowing device for the Treasury that would let us move this hump of borrowing over the generational retirement that’s coming up,” Fisher, managing director and co-head of fixed income at BlackRock in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

The Treasury last month tripled its estimate of planned debt sales in the final three months of the year to a record $550 billion as it attempts to fund bailouts for banks and fiscal stimulus programs to jump start economic growth. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told a conference in Washington Nov. 17 that the U.S. will issue some $1.5 trillion worth of Treasury securities in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1.

Fisher, Treasury undersecretary from August 2001 to October 2003, eliminated 30-year bond auctions in 2001 to reduce government borrowing costs after four years of federal budget surpluses. The U.S. hasn’t been in the black since. The government revived sales of the security in February 2006.

Treasury yields have plummeted as investors have flocked to the safety of U.S. government debt during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Bonds rallied for a fourth day yesterday, sending yields on two-, 10- and 30-year debt to the lowest since the Treasury began regular sales of the securities.

There's a wee bit more from Barry Ritholtz on this clown's comments.

[Demeter]

9. That's Nucking Futs! 100 Years?

People write 99 year leases because they figure that they'll be dead by then, even if they never move. It's the Never-Never Plan of financing.

[tclambert]

16. Don't underestimate medical science.

The next generation may be the first generation of immortals. 1,000 year bonds will seem reasonable someday.

[happyslug]

28. But the IRS treats 99 year leases as sales of property

i.e. if you enter into a 99 year lease, that is viewed by the IRS as a purchase of that property.

[ozymandius]

8. U.S.-Liechtenstein Pact Will Dim Tax Haven’s Allure to Wealthy (ya think?)

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The United States and Liechtenstein plan to sign an agreement to share information on banking clients that will erode the principality’s allure to rich Americans trying to hide assets behind impenetrable bank-secrecy laws.

The accord culminates two years of negotiations, and follows a U.S. Senate committee probe this year of tax avoidance by clients of Swiss and Liechtenstein banks, including LGT Group, which is controlled by the principality’s ruling family.

The agreement will be signed Dec. 8 in Liechtenstein’s capital of Vaduz, Matthew Keller, an official at the principality’s Washington embassy, said in an interview. That will leave only Monaco and Andorra as havens without formal procedures for exchanging information with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, according to the Paris-based Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

....

The Liechtenstein accord takes effect in 2010, according to a statement from the principality’s embassy in Washington. It covers financial information for 2009 and later tax years. Americans are required to disclose most offshore assets to the IRS, although some take advantage of bank-secrecy standards in places such as Liechtenstein and Switzerland to hide money from tax collectors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aewltPzw8E7Q&refer=exclusive

[Demeter]

10. Robert Reich: The Great Crash of 2008

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/12/great-crash-of-2008.html

If this isn't a Great Crash I don't know how to define one. Stocks were down another 7 percent today. Since the peak of last year, major stock indexes have dropped 47 percent. We're in range of the Great Crash of 1929.

Why is the Great Crash of 2008 happening? First, because investors are beginning to understand the enormity of the bubble economy that began to form in the late 1990s when all contraints were lifted on borrowing in order to buy everything that was assumed to be increasing in value -- starting with houses and including securities and shares of stock themselves. So-called "margin requirements," first instituted in the wake of the Great Crash of 1929, were all but abandoned, as big banks and hedge funds found ways around them.

Even more important, investors are starting to fathom the emptiness of American consumers' wallets. Retail sales last Friday and Saturday -- the first days of the Christmas buying season -- were disappointing. Had retailers not discounted to the point of taking losses, sales would have been abysmal. In other words, consumers have gone on strike.

Why have they gone on strike? Not because of the difficulty of getting credit. Most consumers can barely afford to pay the interest charges on the debt they're already carrying. Consumers have gone on strike because their earnings haven't kept up. The recovery that officially ended December, 2007 (the National Bureau of Economic Research now tells us) was the first on record in which median earnings declined, adjusted for inflation. Since then, many people have also lost their jobs or are working part time when they'd rather be working full time, or else know they're in danger of losing their jobs.

The speculative bubble still has some air in it; asset values will continue to drop before they hit bottom. That will take at least a year, possibly two. But don't expect asset values to bounce substantially back, even then. The only way to revive Wall Street is to revive Main Street, and the only way to accomplish this is to get America back on the course of rising median incomes.

[tclambert]

14. It's about earnings?

Yeah, OK, I can see that. Businessmen looking at their own bottom line want to hold down wages, imitating Wal-Mart. But if they pick their heads up and look around, maybe they could see that the employees of other businesses are their customers. If everybody's cutting back employee earnings, that's your customer base with less disposable income.

We need to drill this into every businessman's head: Workers are customers.

[ben_thayer]

20. Am I remembering this right? Didn't Henry Ford

give his workers RAISES back in the 20s for this very reason, and saw FOMOCOs sales increase at a time when other companies were cutting jobs/wages? Or is that an urban legend?

:shrug:

[happyslug]

35. That was the line given out by Henry Ford, but he had better reasons to give the raise.

Henry had a problem, the assembly line. While the assembly line was efficient, it was hard on the people working on the line. Given this stress the better workers looked for work elsewhere and took it. Thus Henry had a high job turnover rate (One of the highest in the country at that time), which reduce the speed of the line do to having to train new men all the time. The only way to reduce this training time was to keep worker longer, Henry finally determined, about 1912, that it was more cost efficient to pay his workers MORE so they stay longer then to constantly train new workers. Thus Henry Ford's increase in his worker's pay, it was cheaper then the alternative.

Now given the high wage a lot of other employers complained, for their workers wanted the same pay and now would leave those lower paying jobs for jobs on the assembly line. It was to these people Henry Ford made his famous comment that he paid his workers high wages so they could buy the car the workers were making (i.e. the comment as NOT for his workers, but to other employers that if they did NOT like the fact Ford was outbidding them for workers don't complain to Ford increase your own pay to compete for the workers).

[Joe Chi Minh]

23. All consuming supermarkets beating down suppliers' prices and workers' wages

also need to be abolished in favour of the high-street shops of the fifties - what you call "Ma and Pa" stores, I believe. This criminal decentralisation and parasitism of the richest and most powerful, built into the DNA of neo-liberal capitalism has been integral to this collapse.

The whole commercial "take-over" culture, whereby companies aways have to worry about being taken over by a bigger one - incidentally with all the extended parasitism of the associated consultants involved - has been another most deleterious feature of it. I don't know about today, but according to Will Hutton's book, The State We're In, the German government took steps to control and minimise this kind of carry-on.

Of course, our criminal, neoliberal jackanapes in the US and UK would have mocked and vilified them for their backward-looking attitudes!

[Timefortruth]

44. Health insurance

Is a large part of why people don't work for themselves anymore, and the reason the issue won't be resolved.

[Joe Chi Minh]

45. I'm sure that's true, but if the UK is any guide, it will not have played such

a major role in the expansion of supermarkets as the rapacity of the supermarkets in our criminal, neoliberal, commercial culture.

I wonder, if the our currencies really tank, if it will be necessary to nationalise the supermarkets, to ensure the public gets sufficient of the food available to the country, and to exploit their supply infrastructures.

[Timefortruth]

43. I really wish Obama picked him for something

It seems like none of the good contrarians got jobs in the new administration.

[Demeter]

11. So Do CDS Counterparties Post Collateral or Not?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/so-do-cds-counterparties-post.html



I hate it when I get contradictory information from supposedly reliable sources, which happens upon occasion when the topic is CDS.

The latest Institutional Risk Analytics newsletter is again after one of its favorite objects of ire, credit default swaps. One of its beefs is that the collateral posting rules are a joke. Key excerpts:

The under-collateralized wagers that are CDS contracts threaten the solvency of financial institutions around the globe, this despite the efforts to reform the system via enhanced clearing mechanisms, increased collateral and margin requirements......

But alas, one of Wall Street's dirty secrets is that most of the CDS dealer banks don't post margin with one another at all! If CDS dealer banks were actually compelled to post real, effective collateral with other dealers to back performance, then the entire CDS market would collapse. Indeed, that is what is happening right now, in slow motion. As leverage in the global banking system is being forced down, the CDS market is being squeezed out of existence by a market that can no longer ignore the inherent contradictions in these OTC options...

the op-risk issues with CDS are as nothing compared to the pricing and funding problems with these contracts. In that sense, the focus on back office problems facing CDS and indeed all OTC derivatives has been a canard, a distraction from the real issue, namely the bankrupt intellectual basis for the CDS contracts themselves....

What Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke failed to tell the Congress, President-elect Barack Obama and the American people is that CDS dealers don't post any effective collateral at all with other dealers. So much for the legal requirements for safety and soundness in 12 CFR. If Barack Obama and the Congress ever needed a final reason to strip the Fed of all regulatory responsibility for financial institutions, the coming nuclear winter of CDS unwind is it.....

You see, in the make believe world of interdealer CDS, when a "margin call" occurs, no cash or securities actually change hands. Instead the CDS dealers merely shuffle some paper around and effectively rely on the overall credit standing of the other banks, much as they do in foreign exchange or money market transactions. And virtually none of these dealers even attempt to model the actual default risk in CDS!.

Mind you, this is from a guy who sells a very high end research product to top tier institutional investors and knows the regulatory scene well.

However, this left us a little perplexed, since we had understood that the reason the Lehman CDS settlement went well was that the counterparties had to post margin when Lehman BK'd, so the stress event was before-hand (hence all the ugly market action in October due to the need to sell something in order to post margin). And we recall seeing a great chart that showed CDS collateral calls to hedge funds, and they shot up in October.

So this undermines IRA, no? Not exactly. It appears that hedge funds are kept on a short leash, at least when on the protection writing side, and are subject to pretty tough collateral posting rules:

.....margining for hedge funds tends to be somewhat more stringent. They typically post collateral at 100% of their current exposure, and furthermore might also be asked to post collateral to cover close-out risk on their contracts for a certain number of days going forward. The estimation of forward exposure is done through forecasting future scenarios.

But this factoid does not prove or disprove the IRA contention, it merely says that hedge funds who write CDS do indeed pony up quickly. Moreover, the ISDA does everything it can to burnish the image of the CDS market, so like the National Association of Realtors' comments, you need to read their comments about the market with a fistful of salt.

And to give you an idea of the general utility of information about CDS, I found this old post: "Barclays: Counterparty Risk in Credit Default Swaps Only $36 to $47 Billion." AIG disproved that estimate.

[Demeter]

13. Bailout Monitor Sees Lack of a Coherent Plan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/02/business/02tarp.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&ref=business&adxnnlx=1228305703-2SC85DwVW8vAxUnnQlRBtw


...Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the oversight panel, said in an interview Monday that the government instead seemed to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.

“You can’t just say, ‘Credit isn’t moving through the system,’ ” she said ...“You have to ask why.”

If the answer is that banks do not have money to lend, it would make sense to push capital into their hands, as the Treasury has been doing over the last two months, she continued. But if the answer is that their potential borrowers are getting less creditworthy with each passing day, “pouring money into banks isn’t going to fix that problem,” she said.

[tclambert]

15. November car sales numbers. (Brace yourselves.)

GM - down 41% from a year ago.
Ford - down 31% (but gained 1% market share)
Chrysler - down 47%
Toyota - down 34%
Nissan - down 42%
Honda - down 32%

Overall, car sales in the US were down 37%.

And that's why they need a loan.

The source article was: http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/12/03/november_auto_sales_drop_37/

[tclambert]

17. Out of that bloodbath, Ford did best

An American car company sucked the least. Yay, sort of.

[happyslug]

41. Ford is bigger then GM overseas, both Companies overseas division making money.

Ford is almost twice as large as GM overseas. This has been true since the 1920s as Ford went overseas and tried to compete in those countries, by producing smaller cars, while GM concentrated in the US to dominate the #1 car market. Thus in the 1950s through 1980s GM sold twice a many cars as Ford in the US, but Ford was almost as large given its much larger overseas production of cars. This greater participation overseas also gives Ford a better ability to turn itself around, it has small overseas cars it can produce (And plans to by 2010). Ford has introduced such small cars over the last 20 to 30 years but all have failed (More to the fact dealers did NOT want to sell them do to the lower profit margin on small cars then on larger cars, the small car market is driven more by price then image, image can be focused by advertising, thus why the car makers advertise, but price is price and given that small car buyers focused on price advertising has little affect on such buyers choice of cars, and given such buyers dedication to price they will jump to another make and model for a lower price, unlike bigger car buyers who want the image produced by divestments and thus less likely to opt for another make and model do to a lower price.

[Festivito]

21. I think GM has a bunch of our bad-boy-banker holdings.

That's why they need a loan/bailout.

Ford seems to just need a loan. And that's just to survive the mess Republicans fostered, at great cost to what would have been their profits for years to come.

GMAC deserves to go down, but so do the other bailed banks.

Chrysler is German owned, and with that Dan Quayle in Cerberus. I say let them drop on their own, or let the union become the new owners, which I prefer. But, I don't really mean all of that, I'm just angry rather than pragmatic at the moment.

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Pragmatic anger? I think it's an oxymoron, but I've got it, too

I think there's a real sense of anger, but finding a way to direct it is the pragmatic part, and it's such a complicated mess that the anger tends to win out over the frustration.

I agree about GMAC, especially the mortgage arm (pun intended). And Dan Quayle. But we still need BETTER vehicles for today's world.


Tansy Gold, working on far too little sleep these days

[Hugin]

33. Speaking of oxymorons...

I'm of the opinion "Student Loan" is one of the worst.

Nothing exemplifies our decline as much as the whole concept of someone mortgaging their future in order to
educate themselves for the future, all based on the future chance at increased earnings which will be absorbed
by the original loan.

It's stupid.

It needs to go away.

Now.

To be replaced by a real honest-to-goodness state sponsored educational system. Which, I will add, is the very soul of a
stable economy.


(The conspiratorial side of me thinks "Student Loans" were created to gut the "LIEBRAL COLLEGE COMMIE LONGHAIR
BOOK READING HIPPY UN-AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES!!!1!) :tinfoilhat:

[Tansy_Gold]

38. Well, as someone whose financial well-being is being destroyed

by student loans, I have to agree. and my daughter certainly mortgaged her future with them, too.

I will no doubt lose half (or more) of my social security to pay them off. How's that for mortgaging the future?


Tansy Gold, over educated book lovin' hippie who regrets nothing about her education even if it never did land her a job

[DemReadingDU]

60. Think of a degree, as showing presverance, dedication

and no one can take it away from you
:)

When my kids were of college age, over a decade ago, we told them we would pay for their education and they could live at home for free. There are several 4-year degree universities in our area, and several 2-year degree colleges, and trade schools too. If they wanted to go to a different college, they would have to earn scholarships, or get loans to pay for the room & board.

Well, both kids decided they had to go away for that first year. Then they ran out of money.

Son decided to live at home and go to 2-year college, and now has Associate in Law Enforcement. While his job as a police officer pays well, he is married with little children, new house and cars. And loans.

Daughter did not want to live at home, she got school loans. And several times, she switched majors, and schools. Finally she did get her 4-year degree! Yay! And upon graduation, she decided to move to San Francisco. In order to make ends meet, she used her credit card as cash. ugh. Thankfully, she has moved back to SW Ohio where living is cheaper, and she has a good paying job. But, all those loans.

I have tried to tell each of them that the bubble is leaking, and it will burst. The party will soon come to an end. And to stock up on extra food. They kinda get it, but gas has come down to $1.65. Life is still good!

[snot]

74. I got my degree in Eng. Lit., of all useless things

& my sis, worse, in a foreign lit. we both gained immense life-lessons & were doing well financially, at least 'til repubs started melting our retirement savings.

[DemReadingDU]

77. A degree is a springboard to other endeavors

A degree opens doors. When I was a computer programmer, there were math majors, English majors, music majors, business majors, physics majors. One career is a springboard to another. One of my former co-workers, is now a Chiropractor.

[snot]

80. true; but it wasn't just the degree; it was the enlightenment.

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 12/01/2008 10,681,135,920,463.00 (UP 19,961,016,655.40) (373% of report-avg)

(Public debt up a lot. FICA/SS brought it down probably due to SS checks going out for beginning of month. Ends the no heavy borrowing on Monday myth I made up a week ago.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,434,879,220,132.56 + 4,246,256,700,330.51
UP 38,288,359,563.07 + DOWN 18,327,342,907.68
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 5,352,072,874.74.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,568,048,583.16.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,452,950,241.77.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 41 reports in 62 days of FY2009 averaging 16.01B$ per report, 10.59B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 50 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/01/2008 10,681,135,920,463.00 GWB (UP 4,952,940,124,281.43 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 656,411,023,550.60 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 ---
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---
11/21/2008 -000,151,096,322.01 ---
11/24/2008 -000,086,920,504.20 ---- Mon
11/25/2008 +001,468,316,558.23 ------------*********
11/26/2008 +000,650,427,812.76 ------------********
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon

75,880,309,294.59 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,016,504,117,203.93 in last 74 days.
That's 1,017B$ in 74 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 100% of that highest year ever only in 74 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 74 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3626641&mesg_id=3626657

[RetailSlave]

26. I have an insane little ritual with the national debt.

Every day, I go to the brillig site and refresh a half-dozen times, until I see an additional million dollars added to the total debt figure. Takes less than 10 seconds.

Sort of reminds me what a poor, pathetic little cog I am compared to the gigantic spending machine that is the US government.

[Festivito]

94. I like it. I hope a million means something to you.

Go for three-million once, just a little over. That's how quickly a penny drains from your wealth, even while you sleep. If you have a family of three, that one-million timing is good enough, that's a penny to your family's wealth.

Sadly, that's only the increase in debt, not the interest, not the retirement of that debt, and not the cost of the rest of government. Sorry to be such a downer. Grab a grain of salt!

[DemReadingDU]

34. 1,017B$ in 74 days. over a trillion!

boggles my mind

:wow:

[tclambert]

85. Thinking in trillions (with apologies to Festivito)

THINKING IN trILLIONS: 3,000 or 4,000 dollars per trillion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3,333.33 each THAT'S 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN thousand BUCKS in a 1T$ federal program.
I hope that is clear.

Next time, "thinking in quadrillions."

Honestly, if they gave each Mama, Papa, and Baby Bear family ten thousand dollars, that would have done a lot of good for the economy. Mortgage payments, car payments, lots of consumer spending. Man, you'd have prosperity. And you know the Wall Street companies would find a way to eventually steer that money to themselves. But on the way there, it would have done wonders.

[Festivito]

93. Thank you, thank you, thank you. I see thinking people.

Yes, that family of three paid for a two-week trip to Europe's 5-star hotels on their credit card, and then gave the tickets and rooms to the bankers that made this mess, and the real kicker.... they will continue to pay the interest on that $10,000 cost of the trip they did not take next year and the year after that and on and on.

You're the reason I've been posting these debt posts. I want to get people to think about and acclimate themselves to the amounts out there.

Yes, and a 1B$ program means that family of three gives up $10, or say a trip to the ice cream parlor for the family. The thinking I want to invoke is... is it worth it. Would you want your family to trade a trip to the ice cream parlor each year for, say, a program to feed hungry kids in schools across the nation that costs the budget 1B$ per year.

Is a $10,000 trip worth the continuation of banking in this country and not having everything grind to a halt. That's a harder question, but it is the question.

Thanks for thinking about it.

[DemReadingDU]

96. forego $10 in ice cream to help feed hungry kids. Sure!

but $10,000 for the banksters to continue corrupted financing...Hell no!

but $10,000 to promote research and innovation into solar energy and wind power to generate electricity for our homes, and reduce dependence on oil/gasoline in our cars? At this point in my life, yes I would.

edit, and some of that money should be used to bring back our manufacturing from China/elsewhere, so that we can become a self-sustaining nation again. We need to produce our own clothes, shoes, the basics that everyone needs.

[Festivito]

95. Debt: 12/02/2008 10,685,166,611,275.20 (UP 4,030,690,812.20) (76% of report-avg)

(Mostly FICA moved last Tuesday. Enjoyed hearing responses in yesterday's thread. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,435,078,596,060.30 + 4,250,088,015,214.90
UP 199,375,927.74 + UP 3,831,314,884.39
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,289,149,919.38.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,702,404,943.57.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,471,004,634.59.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 42 reports in 63 days of FY2009 averaging 15.72B$ per report, 10.48B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 49 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.8 and 11.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/02/2008 10,685,166,611,275.20 GWB (UP 4,956,970,815,093.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 660,441,714,362.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---
11/21/2008 -000,151,096,322.01 ---
11/24/2008 -000,086,920,504.20 ---- Mon
11/25/2008 +001,468,316,558.23 ------------*********
11/26/2008 +000,650,427,812.76 ------------********
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********

76,209,309,792.35 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,020,534,808,016.13 in last 75 days.
That's 1,021B$ in 75 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 100% of that highest year ever only in 75 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 75 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3628478&mesg_id=3628566

[UpInArms]

25. Bank of America job cuts likely to be worse than expected (30,000 jobs)

http://www.wbtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9447846

CHARLOTTE, NC (WBTV) - It looks like the job cuts at Bank of America could be three times as bad as expected. Business television station CNBC is reporting that up to 30,000 jobs could be cut as Bank of America merges with Merrill Lynch.

If there's any good news in this for Charlotte, it's that the vast majority of the job cuts are supposed to be in New York City.

UNC Charlotte professor Tony Plath says most of the cuts are rumored to be in investment banking.

"It's going to hit the Merrill Lynch side harder than it will hit the general bank," Plath told us. Plath added that even the cuts on the Bank of America side are likely to be mostly out of New York, because that's where B of A's investment banking is headquartered.

Still, Plath says if 30,000 jobs are cut, there's no way Charlotte can escape unscathed. He estimates the Queen City will lose anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand jobs, but says it's too early to tell.

Plath says the timing of these cuts couldn't be worse. They'll likely take effect late this year into the first quarter of next year. During that first quarter, Wells Fargo is also expected to announce job cuts when it completes its expected takeover of Wachovia.

...more...

[ozymandius]

27. Financial sector cut 91,356 jobs in Novenber - Challenger

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Labor tracking firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said on Wednesday that the financial sector cut 91,356 jobs in November, the second-worst month for industry layoffs since September 2001. In September 2001 the financial sector lost 96,333 jobs.

bit more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Financial-sector-cut-91356-jobs/story.aspx?guid={6BCD12AF-7A81-460D-B370-835C341D0518}

[PassingFair]

31. So much for the "service based economy".

What else have we got in our bag?

WTF? Can we ALL find jobs in the health
and recycling sectors?

[DemReadingDU]

29. It's Not A "Slow Down", Barack

from blogger Dan W...

"Today during a press conference, Barack Obama urged states to work together so that we can quickly turn around this economic "slow down". I have bad news for Mr. President-elect: this is not a slow down. This is an economic disaster that will DWARF the Depression of the 1930s in scope and toll.
It's hard to know where to begin, but here are 10 reasons why considering the current economic situation a "slow down" is actually very dangerous and irresponsible:
.
.
No sir, Mr. Obama. This is not a slow down. This is not a contraction. This is not a market correction. This is an economic disaster of epic proportions. This is to the 1930s what an F5 tornado is to an afternoon thundershower. An umbrella will not shield you from this storm sir."
by Dan W.

lots more at link posted by GliderGuider
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x49307

[MilesColtrane]

59. I'd tell Dan W that Obama is clear eyed about what's coming down the pike.

It's just not a good idea for the President (elect) to stand at the podium and announce that not only do we have to fear fear itself, we also have to fear the end of days.

[UpInArms]

30. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.137 Change +0.600 (+0.77%)

U.S. Job Cuts Rise 148% Hitting a Six-Year High

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/U_S__Job_Cuts_Rise_148__1228309796877.html

Deteriorating fundamentals continues to reflect a dour outlook for the U.S. as job cuts surged 148.4% to 181,671 in November to reach its highest level in six years. Fading demands from home and abroad paired with the ongoing weakness in the credit market led businesses to cutback on employment, and conditions may only get worse as the world’s largest economy heads into a recession. Fading employment opportunities has certainly heightened the downside risks for growth, and may lead policymakers to step up their efforts over the following months in order to avoid a hard landing.

ADP Employment Report Shows Most Job Losses Since 1991

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/ADP_Employment_Report_Shows_Most_1228311206628.html

The ADP employment report for November showed that the private sector reduced their payrolls by 250,000 which were the most since November, 2001. Goods producing firms led by dropping 158,000 jobs as manufacturing activity has grinded to a halt. Indeed, the forecast for the Non-farm payrolls report is expected to show total job losses for the month at 325,000. However, given the private sector over shot its initial forecast by 45,000 the total losses could be greater.

no wonder the dollar's rising :eyes:

[UpInArms]

55. Dollar gains amid bleak economic data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Dollar-gains-amid-bleak-economic/story.aspx?guid=%7BA2096472%2D028A%2D4D33%2DA95C%2D4A664C23A4B3%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar gained against most of its rivals, but remained within recent trading ranges, as investors digested gloomy economic data from the United States and Europe.

The European single currency and the British pound lost ground against the greenback Wednesday, pressured by renewed risk aversion and expectations for big rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

The dollar index (DXY: 86.90, +0.19, +0.2%) , which tracks the performance of
the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 86.96, up from 86.555 in North American activity late Tuesday.

There was more bleak news about the U.S. economy Wednesday.

Non-manufacturing companies in the United States were contracting in November at the fastest pace on record, according to a survey of companies released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.3% from 44.4% in October. It's the lowest level since the survey began in 1997. Read more.

In other economic news, the U.S. private sector shed 250,000 jobs in November, the biggest job loss in seven years, according to the ADP national employment index released Wednesday. The loss was in line with estimates of analysts surveyed by MarketWatch.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Retail tracker slashes holiday sales forecast

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4B22UA20081203

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A leading consumer research firm slashed its 2008 holiday retail sales forecast to a 3.5 percent drop from last year on Wednesday, far worse than its previous call for a 1 percent decline.

America's Research Group said the move follows "disappointing" Black Friday survey data showing that shoppers were sticking to budgets and checking gifts off their lists by snapping up deeply discounted doorbuster specials.

On November 12, company founder and Chief Executive Britt Beemer forecast that the shrinking U.S. economy would usher in the first decline in holiday sales in almost a quarter century of holiday spending surveys. On November 30, he said he expected to lower his estimate.

"I thought I was going to reduce my forecast but I thought I was going to go to minus 2 versus minus 3.5," he told Reuters in an interview.

"When you look at the numbers, you see that over the weekend consumers were frugal and focused, staying within their budgets and concentrating on the deals and advertised specials," said Beemer. He cited data from the third installment of the America's Research Group/UBS Christmas Survey conducted during the Black Friday weekend that marks the start of the holiday shopping season.

More consumers are mostly finished with their holiday shopping this year than a year ago, leaving retailers less room to squeeze out more sales.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. 9:33 EST down 176 at the start

Dow 8,242.51 176.58 (2.10%)
Nasdaq 1,416.19 33.61 (2.32%)
S&P 500 829.02 19.79 (2.33%)
10-Yr Bond 2.712% 0.019

NYSE Volume 126,605,031.25
Nasdaq Volume 46,245,539.062

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -21.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -33.30.

08:53 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.00.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00. Futures fall to session lows following the ADP report that showed a larger-than-expected loss in nonfarm private employment. Just reported, third quarter nonfarm productivity was revised higher to an increase of 1.3% from 1.1%. Economists expected a reading of 0.9%. Unit labor costs were revised downward to 2.8% from 3.6%.

08:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.50. Futures drop a few points as a private employment report is released. According to the ADP employment report, November nonfarm private employment fell 250,000, which was worse than the expected drop of 205,000. October was revised lower to -179,000 from -157,000. The ADP report has been somewhat spotty compared to the government's employment report, due for release Friday.

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.80. Stock futures indicate a lower open, with the Nasdaq 100 recently falling to session lows and set to underperform after Research In Motion (RIMM) cut its third quarter revenue and earnings outlook. RIM cited the weaker dollar and lower than estimated unit shipments of existing products. The ADP private nonfarm employment report is due in about 15 minutes. Other releases today include the revised third quarter productivity (8:30 AM ET), ISM Services (10:00 AM ET), weekly energy inventory data (10:35 AM ET) and the the Beige Book (2:00 PM ET).

[Hugin]

40. It'll be interesting to see if they have to break out the defibrillator for the NASDAQ again today.

I didn't see a single authoritative mention of that abnormally yesterday.

The only thing I can come up with is that the flat-line followed by the spike was an artifact of very
low volume and the usual "Afternoon Delight".

[UpInArms]

39. Goldman and Morgan Stanley Q4 may be "ugly": analyst

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4B21TZ20081203

reported from Bangalore :eyes:

(Reuters) - The fourth quarter will prove to be "ugly" for Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) with meaningful write-downs as markets continue to be challenging, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities said.

Goldman may post a huge loss of $5.14 a share for the quarter, while Morgan Stanley is likely to report a loss of 46 cents a share, analyst Kenneth Worthington said.

Worthington was the latest among Wall Street analysts to turn more downbeat on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

For the quarter, he expects gross write-downs of about $3.5 billion at Goldman Sachs and about $5.5 billion at Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley, however, will benefit by about $4 billion due to the spread widening on its own debt, he said. This is more than the $0.5 billion benefit the analyst expects at Goldman.

Goldman has been widely expected to post its first quarterly loss since going public in 1999. Poor market conditions got even worse last month as the U.S. Treasury abandoned its proposal to buy hard-to-trade mortgage securities and other debt from hard-hit banks.

...more...

[Demeter]

81. Let Me See...Can I Work Up One Tear of Sympathy?

Nope. Get out the world's smallest violin, then. :nopity:

[DemReadingDU]

42. Columbus, Oh - National Century Trial - Tuesday's update

Fraud trial begins for final company leader
Former vice president accused of approving unsecured loans
By Jodi Andes

The 11th -- and last -- executive charged in what was dubbed the nation's largest fraud involving a private company went on trial in federal court in Columbus yesterday.

James K. Happ, 48, formerly a vice president of Dublin-based National Century Financial Enterprises, faces charges of conspiracy, money-laundering conspiracy and three counts of wire fraud. He has pleaded not guilty.

The company bought accounts receivables from health-care providers and collected the bills for a fee. Bonds were sold to investors.

Happ was in charge of overseeing which accounts receivables were bought by National Century in its final years of business, which ended with its bankruptcy in 2002. Investors lost more than $2 billion.

Ten executives of the defunct health-care lender have been convicted for their roles in a multibillion-dollar fraud that resulted in the bankruptcies of numerous health-care companies and hurt investors, among them pension funds across the country.

In two previous trials of executives this year, federal prosecutors showed that the company advanced billions to health-care companies between 1995 and 2002 in loans that had no accounts receivable as collateral. The practice was unknown to investors, who were told the bonds were secure.

Some of the largest unsecured loans were given to companies owned wholly or partly by National Century executives.

Happ was "one of the top advancers at NCFE," who approved unsecured loans worth more than $100 million, Assistant U.S. Attorney Doug Squires told jurors yesterday in opening statements.

It was a "staggering misuse of investor money," Squires said.

The advances were no secret, defense attorney Craig A. Gillen countered. They were a common practice known to auditors and rating agencies before Happ started with the company in February 2000 and after he left in the spring of 2002.

Happ then went to work for Tender Loving Care, one of the lender's clients. At that time, National Century's overpaid advances to that company alone totaled about $99 million. After Happ became chief executive of Tender Loving Care, he saw that all the advances from National Century were repaid, Gillen said.

Happ's case is being tried before U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley and is expected to last two to three weeks.

Of the 10 former National Century executives previously convicted, six have been sentenced to terms ranging from four to 15 years in prison.

One, Rebecca S. Parrett, remains at large, having taken off while awaiting sentencing. Former CEO Lance K. Poulsen and two others await sentencing.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/12/03/happ_trial.ART_ART_12-03-08_C8_M5C41F2.html?sid=101




12/2/08 Happ attorney denies client’s involvement in National Century fraud
by Kevin Kemper

While two juries have concluded that National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. engaged in a multiyear fraud, a defense attorney for the last of the company’s executives to stand trial said in opening remarks that his client believed their actions were above board.

Opening arguments in the fraud trial of James Happ over Dublin-based National Century’s 2002 collapse began Tuesday morning in U.S. District Court in Columbus. Craig Gillen, attorney for Happ, told jurors they will hear evidence from the government’s star witness that she falsified investor reports and kept multiple sets of books for a fraud that left investors short $2.84 billion when National Century fell into bankruptcy. What the jury won’t hear, Gillen said, is any evidence that Happ had a hand in the wrongdoing.

“Jim Happ never told a lie to any investors. Period,” Gillen said.

The government has accused Happ of a count each of conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy, plus three counts of wire fraud. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges. The former executive vice president at National Century is standing trial on accusations he was part of an executive-level cabal at the medical financing company that defrauded investors for years. Six former executives have been found guilty of fraud and four have pleaded guilty. Happ is the eleventh and final National Century employee to face criminal charges.

A financier for health-care providers like doctors’ offices and hospitals, National Century’s bread and butter was buying accounts receivable from care providers at a discount, then securitizing the receivables into AAA-rated bonds for sale to investors. At its peak, the company employed more than 350 at its office campus in Dublin while recording annual revenue of more than $250 million.

The government has alleged National Century collapsed after running a sophisticated pyramid scheme that fell apart.

In addition to purchasing legitimate accounts receivable, the government alleged National Century funded companies owned by its founders without getting receivables in return, effectively making risky unsecured loans with investor cash. The company charged its clients for those advances, the government has said, which inflated National Century’s revenue and generated bonuses for senior executives.

A government attorney told jurors Tuesday that Happ, as the firm’s chief accountant and head of servicer operations, was responsible for making sure that purchased accounts receivable were eligible. In its July 2007 indictment of eight National Century executives, the government alleged that Happ improperly advanced as much as $5.4 million to a company owned by NCFE founder Lance Poulsen.

The government also accused Happ of ordering a National Century subordinate to remove safeguards on the company’s computer system relative to a health-care provider he planned to join after leaving National Century.

Happ’s trial began Dec. 1 with jury selection. The trial is expected to last most of the month.
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/12/01/daily12.html



Click for yesterday's article and link backwards to previous trials
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3626641&mesg_id=3626724

[Roland99]

48. 10:46am - Almost all better!

DJIA 8,395.20 -23.89 -0.28%
Nasdaq 1,457.62 +7.82 +0.54%
S&P 500 847.68 -1.13 -0.13%
Global Dow 1,391.39 -0.97 -0.07%
Dow Util 364.02 -0.58 -0.16%
NYSE 5,279.86 -29.09 -0.55%
Gold future 768.50 -14.80 -1.91%
Oil $46.77 -0.19
AMEX 1,281.45 +11.28 +0.89%
Russell 2000 444.98 +3.16 +0.72%
Semcond 189.91 +4.22 +2.27%
30-Year Bond 3.23% +0.03 +0.81%
10-Year Bond 2.76% +0.07 +2.60%

[burf]

49. There must be something

wrong with my computer. I was just over at MSNBC and they are up 126! I guess the inventory of ponies and pixie dust remains strong.

[UpInArms]

52. Pravda at its best: Stocks turn green, led by consumer discretionary, financials

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stocks-turn-green-led-consumer/story.aspx?guid=%7B1C651300%2D05AA%2D4678%2DBA6C%2D5AC0941E8E42%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Wednesday shook aside early losses to pull solidly higher, led by consumer discretionary and financial shares. After an initial triple-digit slide, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: 8,419.09, +270.00, +3.3%) rallied to 8,523.75.37, up 104.66 points. The S&P 500 ($SPX: 857.05, +8.24, +1.0%) climbed 11.9 points to 860.71, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP: 1,473.04, +23.24, +1.6%) rose 29.76 points to 1,479.56.

[Hugin]

54. "consumer discretionary"?

:blink:... :blink:.... :ahahahaha:

liars.

[truthisfreedom]

64. It's easy to predict the stock market these days. You don't even need to check today's charts...

˙uʍop ǝpısdn ʇɹɐɥɔ s,ʎɐpɹǝʇsǝʎ uɹnʇ ʇsnɾ

[UpInArms]

56. U.S. homes now undervalued, economists say Prices fall in 241 metro areas in third quarter, and are

U.S. homes now undervalued, economists say
Prices fall in 241 metro areas in third quarter, and are likely to fall further

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Home-prices-now-undervalued-economists/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5CF55AB%2D4E86%2D4D86%2DB888%2D4EAFF46B4B97%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. housing market is now slightly undervalued after rapid price declines have overshot fundamentals, economists for IHS Global Insight said Wednesday.

House prices fell at a 6.9% annual pace nationwide in the third quarter, with prices falling in 241 of 330 metropolitan areas. Prices are down 6.5% from their peak in 2007.

Compared with their long-term fundamental values, U.S. homes are now 3.8% undervalued, the economists said.

"With no end in sight to the downward spiral of house prices, it is likely that the long-anticipated market correction will now overshoot fundamental valuations on the downside," said James Diffley, head of regional economics at Global Insight.

"Weak economic conditions and wary consumers continue to hold the housing market back," said Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist in charge of Global Insight's regional real estate analysis. "Although many areas are seeing home sales increase, it is largely due to foreclosure homes being snapped up at significantly discounted prices. As the inventory of these homes is removed from the market, prices will remain on a downward path."

However, another economist said home prices are still too high in many bubble areas.

"Prices in many markets are still hugely out of line with trend levels, as measured by price-to-rent ratios," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "As long as house prices remain inflated, there is no way that the market can stabilize since there will continue to be a large excess supply of housing putting downward pressure on house prices."

...more...

[Hugin]

57. I disagree with that assessment of the situation.

Real estate prices will continue to fall until they reach a level which can be supported by the prevailing
wages and job availability in the area.

The more the wage gap/lack of jobs the greater the fall.

So, to sum it up... I agree with the second guy.

Edit: :eyes:

[antigop]

58. Hi, Marketeers! Look what's on the financialweek.com website (securities lending)

On yesterdays, SMW thread I posted a thread about what Watson Wyatt, a consulting firm, had to say about securities lending
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3626641&mesg_id=3627072

Well, the financialweek.com website, has an article about Watson Wyatt's warning:
http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081202/REG/812029979/1036
Securities lending a dangerous game for plan sponsors, warns consultant
With big shift in risk-reward, share lending no longer an administrative act, says Watson Wyatt

According to a new analysis from consultants at Watson Wyatt, the risk-reward trade-off of securities lending has changed greatly during the current economic turmoil.

The consulting firm is now advising some of its corporate clients that if executives don’t understand all of the arrangements and risks involved in their securities-lending activities, they should suspend securities lending.
...
For years, many pension fund officials have viewed securities lending as just an administrative activity, Ms. Laird said. Essentially, they’ve seen the share lending as a mechanism to offset custody costs, since custodians for pension funds often package securities lending along with their broader services.

Now, however, pension fund executives and finance executives need to consider a number of potential landmines—including counterparty risks and collateral—that could cause funds to sustain substantial losses as a result of securities lending.

Collateral may pose the biggest threat, Ms. Laird pointed out, noting that when pension funds have taken cash collateral for securities lending, many of the areas where they’ve invested this cash have lost a substantial amount of value recently. “This has changed the risk-reward proposition greatly over the last year,” she added.

I'm wondering how much pension funds have lost due to this type of securities lending. How much have defined benefit pensions lost? How much have 401(k) plans lost?

Very interesting, I think, that financialweek.com posted the article on their website.

[DemReadingDU]

61. Very interesting

I wonder how much of our retirement funds have been lost too.

Thanks for posting!

[antigop]

62. yes, any mutual fund that does securities lending -- how much has been lost?

How much of the decline is due to the securities in the fund and how much is due to the loss on securities lending?

[Roland99]

65. 2:09pm - No more happiness

DJIA 8,298.51 -120.58 -1.43%
Nasdaq 1,434.62 -15.18 -1.05%
S&P 500 837.57 -11.24 -1.32%
Global Dow 1,388.62 -3.74 -0.27%
Dow Util 359.29 -5.31 -1.46%
NYSE 5,220.17 -88.78 -1.67%
AMEX 1,276.13 +5.96 +0.47%
Semcond 189.69 +4.15 +2.23%
Russell 2000 435.63 -6.19 -1.40%
Gold future 770.50 -12.80 -1.63%
30-Year Bond 3.19% -0.01 -0.44%
10-Year Bond 2.66% -0.03 -1.23%

[CatholicEdHead]

66. Just wait an hour for the PPT to do its thing in the last hour of the day

[nc4bo]

69. That train arrived right on time. When will people grow weary of the BS? nt

[DemReadingDU]

71. when people pull out their money from the market

As long as their is money in stocks or bonds or mutual funds, someone will be buying and selling. If everyone would pull out their money, the game would end.


edit for clarification

[Joanne98]

67. What happened to Yahoo finance. I can't pull it up.

Does anyone know?

[DemReadingDU]

70. ok for me

:shrug:

[antigop]

68. WSJ: The bell tolls for private equity: Carlyle cuts 10% of staff

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/12/03/the-bell-tolls-for-private-equity-carlyle-cuts-10-of-staff/

Carlyle Group is cutting 10% of its staff today, the first large U.S. private-equity firm to announce firmwide layoffs as the industry braces for leaner times.

The Washington, D.C., buyout shop will cut about 100 of its 1,000-person staff. It is the first firmwide layoff in Carlyle’s 20-year history. Other large firms are also considering cutbacks, according to two people familiar with discussions.

The layoffs emphasize how no part of Wall Street’s ecosystem is immune from the current recession. There was a widely held belief that private-equity firms would be a refuge from the financial crisis, but that hasn’t been the case. For firms like Carlyle, declining asset values and a paucity of new deals has taken its toll.

Carlyle had aggressively hired in the past 12 months, and the layoffs return the firm to its 2007 staffing levels. As part of this retrenchment, the firm will close its Silicon Valley office, which has been open less than a year.

[TheWatcher]

72. Interesting Quip today from a Lamb thinking about trying his luck.

I was speaking with a friend earlier today who is thinking about getting into the Market now that the "Bottom" appears to be in, at least according to him.

"It seems like it's pretty simple. All you have to do is play the Market in the last hour of the day and you make money every time. Besides, I don't want to miss the bottom, and it looks like we have an opportunity we might never see again."

Looks like another Sheep ready for slaughter.

So, another day, another Official Sector Keg Party.

First, the reasons you are supposed to believe this is all perfectly normal, and that there is nothing at all unusual or fake about any of this.

UAW to renegotiate labor terms, suspend jobs bank

Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices by lowering mortgage rates via Fannie and Freddie - WSJ (In other words, another bullshit rumor with no substance and no purpose other than to psychologically manipulate the environment)

Online retailers see surge on 'Cyber Monday'

SEC adopts new rules for credit-rating agencies
Wednesday December 3, 3:26 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
SEC adopts new rules aimed at stemming conflicts in credit-rating industry

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal regulators on Wednesday adopted new rules designed to stem conflicts of interest and provide more transparency for Wall Street's credit-rating industry, widely faulted for its role in the subprime mortgage debacle and ensuing credit crisis.

And finally, and this is my favorite. I know it's yours too, because we never get tired of being force-fed buzzword jargon to make us feel good.

The "bad news is already priced in."

The news was horrible AGAIN today, and if the Fed Beige Book and preliminary Retail Outlook weren't enough, it turns out Bank Of America was COMPLETELY exaggerating that number yesterday when they said they were planning to cut 10,000 jobs this winter.

It's 30,000

And now it turns out much of Seattle's Office Space downtown is about to be gutted, because Washington Mutual's presence will be completely GONE. Office space, employees, GONE.

Oh, I KNOW though. Look at the pretty Stock market Rallies in the last hour of each day. They're SAVING us. They love us SO much. They're looking out for our interests. It's so GOOD.

America, it is time to WAKE UP. Seriously.

They continue to avoid using the word Recession, but anyone with an IQ higher than that of Balsa Wood could see the Recession has BEEN here for some time, Government fake numbers notwithstanding. Within 6-9 months many are going to look back on these times as the salad days. A VERY hard rain is coming.

Your country, economy, financial Markets, and financial system is being run by a bunch of deranged, Power Drunk psychopaths who cannot and will not do anything to stabilize the economy and solve any issues that economy is facing. They are only interested in enriching themselves and keeping their insane game going at your expense. You. Are. On. Your. Own.

For those who have chosen to be awake, and can actually see what's going on, and are hoping that somehow this nonsense will end anytime soon, I am afraid I don't have anything you want to hear.

The Junkies are having their Christmas Party, and with the outlook for next week (More Auto Bailout Antics, Rate Cuts, more programs rolled out from the "Hank and Ben Show", Bottom Calling from all pundits/Pravda Media, all "bad news being priced in", another fake PPI Number (One of their favorite "rally tools"), it looks like they will continue to stuff your stocking with whatever fake faitscos they can find.

Now of course, none of this will actually FIX anything, or solve any problems, or stabilize the economy or the Credit Markets, or fuel any kind of real recovery, but it does make the numbers go up, and that makes people feel good, and helps keep the herd in line, and Da Boyz fat and happy.

Don't worry though. It will all be gone by January. Like all Heroin Highs, the euphoria wears off eventually, and you have to get back to real life.

Until the next fix.

And for the record, if you need any more proof that the US Treasury are idiots, please look no further than their latest plan to "Save Housing Prices." Notice no discussion or plan about letting free markets decide mortgage rates based on risk profiles. No, we must artificially lower the rates beyond what FNM and FRE already were doing, so we can get our precious "bubble" back.

Oh, did I say "Free Market?"

Silly me.

On Edit: You know, I really shouldn't be so callous. I mean, how can you NOT rally the Market and claim the bottom is in when the ISM Services number was an ALL-TIME LOW. It's ALREADY PRICED IN!

HUZZAH!

[UpInArms]

73. well said!

:applause::applause::applause::applause::applause::applause:

[TheWatcher]

76. Just calling it as I see it UIA.

Thanks for all the great posts today, and every day. This really is the "hardest working thread on the Internet." :)

By the way, I DID manage to talk my friend out of putting anything into the Market, at least until January. He has NO idea what he is doing, he's quite young, he watches CNBC every day, and thinks he "has learned a lot.", and is ready to get his feet wet

Sigh. I swear if I can save JUST ONE.

[CatholicEdHead]

79. Be sure to point out all of the many disclaimers on CNBC for investing

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17362458/

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this website and on the show are solely Cramer’s opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Cramer’s opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Cramer, CNBC, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries are not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided on this website. Cramer’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of Cramer’s compensation from CNBC is related to the specific opinions he expresses.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Cramer nor CNBC guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this website or on the show. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this website or on the show may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this website or on the show. Before acting on information on this website or on the show, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837353/

24. No Investment Advice.

If you intend to use the Service or receive or request any news, messages, alerts or other information from the Service concerning companies, stock quotes, investments or securities, please read the above Sections 10 and 11 again. They are particularly important for you. The Service is provided for informational purposes only. You understand and hereby agree that the Service and CNBC do not recommend any security, financial product or instrument, nor does any mention of a particular security on the Service constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, financial product or investment discussed herein. You also understand and acknowledge that neither the Service nor CNBC provide tax, legal or investment advice. You further understand and hereby agree that the Service and CNBC do not offer or provide any investment advice or opinion regarding the nature, potential, value, suitability or profitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. You hereby agree that any investment decisions you make will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial condition, and liquidity needs. CNBC shall not be responsible or liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any information transmitted via the Service, and shall not be responsible or liable for any trading or investment decisions made based on such information. Any information provided on the Service may have been previously disseminated and does not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC Universal or our parent company or affiliates.

[TheWatcher]

91. Indeed. But you know, in the end that is all CYA stuff anyway.

Although useful to point out, CNBC is nothing more than a propaganda channel.

Not even an entertaining one anymore.

[UpInArms]

92. being a contrarian is always difficult

whether you are correct or not - when the tide is pulling everyone out to drown and you are trying to throw them floaties and they think the water is fine ... well, there you have it.

Hang in there with us all and maybe the tide will turn :)

I have learned that every wave begins with just one drop of water - and I invision myself becoming just that - the first drop

[DemReadingDU]

78. Yep, you said it!

:applause:

[ozymandius]

82. Oh my.

From the WSJ: Treasury Considers Plan to Stem Home-Prices Decline

The Treasury Department is considering a plan to revitalize the U.S. housing market by reducing mortgage rates for new home loans ... The plan, which is in the development stages, would use mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring loan rates down as low as 4.5%, a full percentage point lower than the prevailing rates for 30-year fixed mortgages.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/wsj-treasury-considers-plan-to-lower.html

They just want that bubble to keep on growing.

[UpInArms]

83. end of the day ponies and lollipops for everyone!

Dow 8,591.69 172.60 (2.05%)
Nasdaq 1,492.38 42.58 (2.94%)
S&P 500 870.74 21.93 (2.58%)
10-Yr Bond 2.676% 0.017

NYSE Volume 7,190,529,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,298,237,000

4:15 pm : Stocks managed to post a strong gain after a solid e-commerce sales report and encouraging news out of the financial sector helped offset dour private employment and services industry economic reports.

Trade was volatile, as has been the case of late. Stocks quickly recovered from opening losses, only to fall back into the red shortly before 2:00 PM ET. Then, a surge in buying interest sent the S&P 500 to a 2.6% gain to settle at session highs.

The Fed's Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal economic information, painted a bleak economic picture, which was widely expected. The small portion of good news -- the Philadelphia Fed said it saw loan volumes rise and the Dallas Fed said the government's capital investments have helped larger institutions feel less constrained in their lending -- helped the financial sector (+5.6%) lift the market out of the red and lead a late-session rally.

Homebuilders (+11.0%) exhibited strength on signs that the government's plan to utilize up to $500 billion to support the mortgage market is having a positive effect. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 5.65% yesterday, according Bankrate.com, and the Mortgage Bankers Association said that mortgage applications rose by a record 112% last week.

Retailers (+6.3%) outperformed throughout the session. Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN 45.20, +4.01) spiked after comScore said e-commerce spending jumped 15% on Cyber Monday to $846 million, which marks the second highest online spending day on record. The four-day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday saw e-commerce spending increase 13%. Since the start of November, $12.0 billion has been spent online, which is a 2% year-over-year decline, according to comScore.

In economic news, ADP reported that private nonfarm employment decreased 250,000 in November, which follows a downwardly revised reading of -179,000 in October. This was worse than the expected decline of 205,000. The ADP report has had a spotty record compared to the government's employment report. The government data, set for release on Friday, include both nonfarm private and public employment and is expected to show a decrease of 325,000 jobs.

November ISM services, a national nonmanufacturing survey, dropped to 37.3 from October's reading of 44.4. This marks the lowest level since the report started in 1997 and is well below the expected reading of 42.0. A number below 50 indicates contraction in the services industry.

In commodity trading, crude oil futures fell 0.2% to $46.86 per barrel despite the government's weekly energy report showing unexpected declines in both crude and gasoline stockpiles.

The S&P 500 has now gained in seven of the last eight sessions and is up 17.50% from its multi-year low reached on Nov. 21.DJ30 +172.60 NASDAQ +42.58 NQ100 +3.2% R2K +2.7% SP400 +2.5% SP500 +21.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1075/1669/2.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1048/2084/1.55 bln

[tclambert]

86. So . . . we should invest in ponies and lollipops?

Makes as much sense as anything these days.

[ozymandius]

89. Sorry I stepped on your day's cap.

I just posted and ran.

[UpInArms]

90. GMTA -

:D

[ozymandius]

84. End of the day stuff.

Dow 8,591.69 Up 172.60 (2.05%)
Nasdaq 1,492.38 Up 42.58 (2.94%)
S&P 500 870.74 Up 21.93 (2.58%)
10-Yr Bond 2.676% Down 0.017
NYSE Volume 7,191,055,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,298,237,000

4:15 pm : Stocks managed to post a strong gain after a solid e-commerce sales report and encouraging news out of the financial sector helped offset dour private employment and services industry economic reports.

Trade was volatile, as has been the case of late. Stocks quickly recovered from opening losses, only to fall back into the red shortly before 2:00 PM ET. Then, a surge in buying interest sent the S&P 500 to a 2.6% gain to settle at session highs.

The Fed's Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal economic information, painted a bleak economic picture, which was widely expected. The small portion of good news -- the Philadelphia Fed said it saw loan volumes rise and the Dallas Fed said the government's capital investments have helped larger institutions feel less constrained in their lending -- helped the financial sector (+5.6%) lift the market out of the red and lead a late-session rally.

Homebuilders (+11.0%) exhibited strength on signs that the government's plan to utilize up to $500 billion to support the mortgage market is having a positive effect. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 5.65% yesterday, according Bankrate.com, and the Mortgage Bankers Association said that mortgage applications rose by a record 112% last week.

Retailers (+6.3%) outperformed throughout the session. Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN 45.20, +4.01) spiked after comScore said e-commerce spending jumped 15% on Cyber Monday to $846 million, which marks the second highest online spending day on record. The four-day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday saw e-commerce spending increase 13%. Since the start of November, $12.0 billion has been spent online, which is a 2% year-over-year decline, according to comScore.

In economic news, ADP reported that private nonfarm employment decreased 250,000 in November, which follows a downwardly revised reading of -179,000 in October. This was worse than the expected decline of 205,000. The ADP report has had a spotty record compared to the government's employment report. The government data, set for release on Friday, include both nonfarm private and public employment and is expected to show a decrease of 325,000 jobs.

November ISM services, a national nonmanufacturing survey, dropped to 37.3 from October's reading of 44.4. This marks the lowest level since the report started in 1997 and is well below the expected reading of 42.0. A number below 50 indicates contraction in the services industry.

In commodity trading, crude oil futures fell 0.2% to $46.86 per barrel despite the government's weekly energy report showing unexpected declines in both crude and gasoline stockpiles.

The S&P 500 has now gained in seven of the last eight sessions and is up 17.50% from its multi-year low reached on Nov. 21.DJ30 +172.60 NASDAQ +42.58 NQ100 +3.2% R2K +2.7% SP400 +2.5% SP500 +21.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1075/1669/2.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1048/2084/1.55 bln

[UpInArms]

87. Ozy, I do believe that we have walked right through the looking glass

what is bad is good and what is good is bad and ...

[ozymandius]

88. I agree.

It does seem as though the world has lost its collective mind. Several hundred point swings in the index averages every day. I cannot imagine how anyone would summon the will to invest either in mutual funds or individual stocks these days.

Even a solid equity is subject to the tumult and assaults from other stockholders covering losses by selling the good stuff.

[mnhtnbb]

97. Hope. It's a good thing.