Amazon study finds natural brake on global warming [ananova.com]

[truthisfreedom]

http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_864774.html?menu=news.latestheadlines%22

Amazon study finds natural brake on global warming

Global warming may be slowing as trees in the tropical forests of the Amazon are growing and dying much more quickly, new British research suggests.

The growth rate of trees in the Amazon Basin has nearly doubled in recent decades, which may have helped slow the earth from heating up, according to the research published by The Royal Society.
<snip>
But researchers also warned the change cannot be taken for granted and could be reversed by deforestation.
Logging may also be leading to more forest fires because it lets in more sunlight, which dries up the forest floor.
Saving the world's remaining rainforests also requires a committed effort to move away from burning fossil fuels, the scientists said.
<snip>
Yadvinder Malhi of the University of Edinburgh, a contributing scientist and one of the publication's editors, said: "In the 21st century, we are moving into a human-made atmospheric and climatic situation that has not been experienced on Earth for at least 20 million years.
<snip>

The journal will be available in March from the Royal Society and at http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk.

Story filed: 07:19 Wednesday 11th February 2004

[slor]

1. I Knew Mother Nature...

would provide a way to repair what damage humans were doing. I hope we do not miss this chance to save ourselves!

[Thoth]

2. Unfortunately, these "carbon sinks" are being destroyed

at an accelerating rate. Primary tropical forests have been completely destroyed in many countries. The amazon must be saved for it to remain a carbon sink. That 87 billion for Iraq would have been much better spent helping Brazil, Peru and Columbia in their (feeble) preservation efforts.

[enki23]

3. you don't get it

if the rate has been slowed, then the current alarming rate would have been even *worse* without this response. in other words, if we continue the current rates of deforestation, we will accelerate global warming.

of course, there are other problems with this. trees may be growing and dying faster, but without seeing the actual article (which hasn't been printed yet?) i fail to see how "faster" tree growth in the amazon would make any long-term contribution. the amazon forest keeps all its biomass in the trees rather than in detritus. there are two ways this could have a long-term impact on CO2 levels. the first is that it could start switching over to a more detrital-based system by overloading its own extremely rapid system of turnover. i didn't see anything in the bit i read pointing to such a switch, however, and it would seem pretty damned unlikely in any case.

the other, and the way they seem to be heading, would be if there were a long-term sustained *growth* of the forests themselves. that process would have to continue at a rapid enough rate to maintain the same proposed braking effect. there would have to be *more* forest, more living mass, and this process would have to continue at a rapid rate. we'd have to *keep* adding more forest. but we aren't. and we won't. the trees can grow so high, and can get only so fat, and the creatures living in and on them can only get so abundant. the system can't continue increasing its mass without expanding its borders, or switching to a detritus-producing system.

i don't see anything new here at all, and definitely nothing worthy of calling it a "natural brake on global warming." we know that, given sufficient quantities of other essential nutrients, increased CO2 will result in increased plant growth rates. in the US, that mostly means our corn and soybeans will grow a tiny bit faster, and maybe bigger. that is, so long as we can afford to keep making and delivering gargantuan amounts of synthetic fertilizer. as for the rest of the world... there are few areas for which CO2 is the limiting nutrient, and it's doubtful that it would have much of a real effect. also, our forests have already been largely used up, and are still declining. increased growth and death rates (on a biomass basis) would be largely offset by increased rates of decomposition which would go along with them.

and again, this article doesn't seem to contain much new information, except in that the system of growth and death in the amazon forest has sped up somewhat. we already know our CO2 levels are up. some of this response is to be expected. this is neither a surprise, nor mother nature coming to our "rescue".

[leesa]

4. Isn't the fact that we are running out of oil a natural brake?

We won't be ABLE to produce greenhouse gases via petrocarbons for many more years.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. we're about half way through the oil

so there's quite a lot more carbon dioxide to come, if we want. Plus there's a lot of tar sands, shale, and coal left ...

[leesa]

6. That doesn't sound right, but I'm not certain. If peak world

oil hits around 2010 to 2030, we will automatically have reductions in usages because the price will skyrocket. The more that is wasted for these eternal wars will also deplete it that much faster. It may be a race, global warming vs running out of deposits, but we will be forced to cut consumption very soon from everything I have read.

Yeah, we have shale, tar sands, etc., but the extraction is extremely expensive therefore there will not be much affordable fossil fuel available. There will be far fewer jets in the sky, cars on the road and many businesses will either convert energy sources or fail.

Wasn't the last big find in the North Sea (biggest in five years) supposed to last 5 days at current consumption?

[hatrack]

7. Related - "20-Year Alert Over Falling Rainforests"

"The special ability of rainforests to hold back global warming is failing and could end in 20 years scientists warn today.

That would raise temperatures by up to eight degrees in the next century, causing huge climate change and threatening humans, the report from the Royal Society reveals."

EDIT

The report says temperatures have risen half a degree in the Amazon region in the past 20 years. Over the same period the rate at which forests are growing and dying has doubled. Dr Oliver Philip of Leeds Universitywho co-authored one three Royal Society papers on the rainforests, said: "Computer simulations show the carbon sink cannot be taken for granted. The process could be reversed in two decades by the combined effects of deforestation and global warming."

Two further papers show some Amazonian rainforests are already starting to break up. Experts believe recent forest fires have significantly damaged some forests and their monkey and bird populations."

EDIT