Gallup Daily: Obama Lead at 7-8% Among Likely Voters

[RedSpartan]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has 51% of the vote among likely voters in two separate estimates based on Gallup's likely voter models, while John McCain's share of the vote is 43% to 44%; these results are based on interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Obama has a seven percentage point, 51% to 44%, margin using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections for Oct. 22-24, and an eight-point, 51% to 43%, margin using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.


Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111442/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Lead-78-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

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[Bicoastal]

1. Yup, and that's consistently been Obama's LOWEST metric.

All 3 models show Obama holding steady at 51%. :)

[tclambert]

7. RCP's average is Obama +8.0%

And they still include the AP 1% outlier. Looking forward to when that drops off in a couple of days. The biggest differential they've had is Obama +8.2%. Of course the real game is electoral votes. Who can get to 270? RCP shows Obama with 306 EVs solid or leaning, McCain with 157, and 75 too close to call. 538.com gives McCain just a 5.1% chance of winning now.

BTW, I figured out what McCain is doing in Pennsylvania. He can't accept the polls are accurate, or there's no point in trying. If he assumes the polls are all biased in Obama's favor by 5 or 6 percent, though, he has a very slim chance. That would put Obama ahead in enough states to have 306 electoral votes, McCain with 232. But Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire would be within a few points of tied. McCain's campaign is pretty much yielding Colorado and New Mexico. Together they only have 14 EVs, and they are so far out west that travel time to campaign there would cost him useful time elsewhere. The other four are close enough together, he can conserve time and money by only visiting them. He has to swing 38 EVs his way. Ohio has 20, Virginia 13, New Hampshire 4, and Pennsylvania 21. Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire add up to 37, enough to tie but not to win. So he has to try for Pennsylvania or assume the polls are even more than 6 points off.

Even with an assumed bias of 6%, though, Obama has something like a 4.8% lead in Pennsylvania, and a smaller lead in the other 3. And whatever moves the McCain campaign makes, Obama's campaign can match, or better. Obama can make as many personal appearances as McCain. And he can afford more TV ads. Still, McCain has to try to turn Pennsylvania, or he can't win. And Obama's sizable lead in PA means he can trade visits there for visits to OH, and win both.

Well, McCain can always assume the polls are biased by 8% or more. While he's at it, he can assume pigs (with lipstick) have wings . . .

[armed_and_liberal]

2. Hang in there baby!

Just a few more days.......


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[bmichaelh]

3. Who are likely voters?

There is an interesting article on salon.com about who Gallup considers likely voters.

I am not one of them and I just voted early for Obama.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/25/obamas_lead/

"..The flaw is simple: Gallup identifies "likely" voters by asking their previous voting history, meaning that if you are a first-time voter or you skipped voting in either 2000 or 2004, your preference is either not counted at all or weighted down.."

[4lbs]

5. Actually, Likely (Expanded) includes first time voters. Likely (Traditional) does not.

n/t

[4lbs]

4. The bigger statement in all this stability for Obama's polling numbers is that

it means McCain and Palin's attacks and message aren't bringing in any NEW people.

The "Ayers" thing, "palling with terrorists" is a loser.

The "Joe the Plumber" doesn't do anything but appeal to a small portion of their base. Independents and "soft" Democrats couldn't care less.

The Joe Biden "gaffe" isn't getting traction except in their own smaller base.

Very little is working for them right now.

[tclambert]

6. Likely voters are like the usual suspects

except they're voters instead of suspects, and likely rather than usual.

That's a version of George Washington's axe logic. As in: I have George Washington's axe. It just has a different head and a different handle.

[Doctor_J]

8. I like it, but he should've gotten a bump from ATMgate

no?