Gallup Daily: Obama Retains Significant Lead (Oct 19: O 52 M 42)

[brooklynite]

Source: Gallup

RINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain in the presidential race has again widened to 10 points among registered voters, 52% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 16-18.



This is the first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on data collected entirely after Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate. McCain's current 42% support level is at the midpoint of the 41% to 43% range he has received over the past 18 days. Obama's 52% is at the upper end of the 48% to 52% range of support he has received over the same time period. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111232/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-Significant-Lead.aspx

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Remember the Drudge - induced tizzy when the "Traditional" Gallup modeled narrowed to 2 points? Never mind...

[Bicoastal]

1. The most important factor in that poll? This line:

This is the first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on data collected entirely after Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate.

It proves that the race WAS narrowing last weekend, but reversed itself after the debate. Good news all around...

[thenam]

2. RCP no longer using RV model in average

Just using the LV numbers, it would appear.

[tclambert]

12. Yeah, they changed their yardstick.

So RCP's average looks narrower. The problem is how to determine who is a "likely" voter. The traditional model they are using is based on the Democrats putting forward a champion with zero charisma, Gore or Kerry. Add the race issues that pollsters never had to factor in at this level, and the likeliness of a voter actually voting is more of an unknown.

Meanwhile, the electoral map remains overwhelmingly in Obama's favor. And the accuracy of that is somewhat confirmed by the actions of the candidates. McCain made appearances in Virginia and North Carolina. Obama drew a titanic crowd in Missouri. All three were supposed to be safely red states. But if candidates are visiting them NOW, that means their internal campaign polling shows these states are up for grabs. At this point, you can't waste those precious personal appearances on lost states or safe states.

I'm expecting a slight uptick to Obama's numbers due to Colin Powell's endorsement. Not much. And I'm expecting a continual improvement in his numbers due to the financial disparity of the campaigns. ($150 million. Holy cow!) McCain cannot afford to match the number of TV spots the Obama campaign can run. And I've heard that Obama is making something like twice the number of personal appearances that McCain is. I haven't heard confirmation of that, nor have I heard a rationale for it (other than my wife saying McCain needs more naps).

[thereismore]

3. McCraps can't dig his way out of the 43% ceiling. nt

[mwb970]

10. For awhile, O was trying for 50 and M was trying for 45.

Now O is well above 50, but M never has hit 45, has he?

Go Obama!

[RedSpartan]

4. Drudge's "Traditional" still is a 3 point lead, so you'll hear that repeated over and over...

[4lbs]

5. Actually, it looks like both "Likely Voters" polls have increased for Obama by 1 point.

Yesterday for Gallup,

The "Likely (Traditional)" was 49 - 47 for Obama. It's now 49 - 46.

The "Likely (Expanded)" was 51 - 45 for Obama. It's now 51 - 44.

So, Obama stayed the same, while McCain WENT DOWN by a point.

[RedSpartan]

7. Yes, but you won't hear that from Drudge and Fox, of course.

You'll only hear how it's a "three point lead" and probably "within the margin of error." Whatever...

[Miss Chybil]

6. Looks good to me! K & R! nt

[Warren Stupidity]

8. More Cowbells!

I want that Obama line pushing 55.

[ryanmuegge]

9. The race is much closer than that. Other polls have a 3-4% gap between the two.

The electoral map is solidly in Obama's favor, though, and that's what matters.

[tclambert]

13. You are correct, sir. Electoral votes are more important.

50% is not the number that matters. 270 is the number that trumps everything. RCP predicts Obama 364 to 174. 538.com predicts Obama 347 to 191.

I'm still hoping for 369 to 169, an even 200 differential. So I'm watching West Virginia real close.

[central scrutinizer]

14. most meta-polls seem to be converging around 360 EV for Obama

I'll take that - no complaints.

[Zambero]

11. Undecided independents are breaking for Obama

Post-debate focus group evaluations pointed to this, and the numbers are indeed bearing it out. Now, Hopefully Colin Powell's endorsement will serve as the "coup de grace" for the McCain-Palin campaign.

[goforit]

15. Slowly awakenning.