STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 15

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 15, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 97
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2822 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2547 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2838
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 14, 2008

Dow... 9,310.99 -76.62 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq... 1,779.01 -65.24 (-3.54%)
S&P 500... 998.01 -5.34 (-0.53%)
Gold future... 839.50 -3.00 (-0.36%)
30-Year Bond 4.26% +0.12 (+2.97%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.02% +0.16 (+4.20%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[truthisfreedom]

1. If America was Palin's sister...

We might have a chance with her at the "tiller."

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

The Top 10 Hints of Global Reflation
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

Welcome to the new world of financial uncertainty and topsy-turvy markets. So you thought the stock market was down and out, time to run for cover and exit those IRA and 401K positions. Well, undoubtedly many were surprised by yesterday's strong stock market resurgence. With stocks acting like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls, it is enough to make anyone wonder, what the heck do I do with my money? Should I be in defensive assets like cash and money market funds? Or Should I be looking to invest capital in equities now that the stock market is relatively depressed? These are the daunting questions of the day and these decisions are not easy with much of the world now concerned about fading global growth, and indeed the possibility of a global recession or worse. In order to start making good decisions, perhaps the best approach is to step back and take stock of the larger picture.

Over the last two decades, capitalism was exported to the global stage, and in doing so, began to extend its tentacles forming a web of interlocking relationships. Over time, these inter-country economic relations, all centering on trade and economic growth laid down deep roots. It is today a fact that perhaps never in world history have so many nations been so deeply intertwined. Pulling back from this economic arena for any nation would run steep risks, as there is a very high degree of mutual interdependence. To that end, it is not surprising that the stock markets of the world applauded at least in some fashion the statements issued by the G-7 this weekend which showed a strong resolve to combat the credit market contagion which has seized up the global arteries of lending. Without credit markets moving back to a more normalized condition, the downside risks to a 1929-1932 style Depression will remain very much at hand. Thus, we arrive at the now widely agreed upon need for government intervention to try and stabilize the situation. While we do not disagree with those in the hard money school who argue that free-markets should be left alone and that government intervention may only make the problem worse, the fact is, that when the lives of millions and millions of people are being negatively affected worldwide, government will be on the move, like it or not.

So the question now becomes, just what happens next if the government has any level of success? The answer to that is two words: Monetary Reflation. Consider it an attempt at building a new even bigger pile of debt on top of the now imploding useless pile of debt.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

15. I Don't Like the Sound of That!

Good Morning, Ozy and the World!

I don't know about the global markets, but it looks like maybe my own personal little hell is going out of business, which is relief at last.

Have a peaceful and productive Weds. all!

[ozymandius]

17. Hi Demeter.

Good morning. What do you mean? Can you spare some details?

[Demeter]

19. It's a Long Story, But You Asked

If you remember, I was fighting in Probate for my daughter, who had been put into foster care, from January to May. In May, I got back guardianship, but she was ordered to stay in foster care. In September, I got her out of that on an emergency basis, owing to the unsanitary and neglectful state of care she endured there. She made amazing recovery from the obvious stress and unhappiness she experienced there. Today, we are aiming at removing all court restrictions on her and my ordering of her life.

I have yet to sue the bitch whose lies and abuse of power put us in jeopardy--that will come after it's all nice and tight legally. There's only one thing worse than a Palin, and that's an ignorant snob of an official "do-gooder".

Then the co-op where I live has been working to convert to condominiums since forever. With the state of the economy being what it is, things got to be impossible, and June stretched to October. Well, the conversion lawyer browbeat all the banks into submission, and we are converting this week. As a member of the Board, I thought and still think that this was A Bad Idea, but given that I was outnumbered, and my personal situation will improve, I have yielded to inevitability and exhaustion, and look forward to all these dissatisfied people selling out and leaving. Maybe then the community will be pleasant again...but the end of emergency meetings on Sunday nights, the bickering and abuse and persecution that the Board has endured, will be very welcome. Even though the penalty of $2.4 million is a bitter pill to swallow.

And in the process, my household imcome will start to improve. Losing my daughter's income contribution was devastating, but that will be fixed now. And I still have doubled my earnings, and I can keep that going. Having my rent cut to 1/3, with the option of earning interest on another 1/3 as I save for the property tax bills, etc, etc, is another relief of the strain. It's getting straightened out, finally. I might even be fiscally sane as well as mentally by spring!

[ozymandius]

23. I am so happy that these stresses are coming to an end.

I am also very sorry about the sordid events about your daughter. That twisted drama remains fresh in my memory. The emotional hell you've endured from your child's removal. How horrible.

Thankfully this is almost over.

[DemReadingDU]

26. Thanks for sharing

Hopefully, things will continue to work out for you for the better.

[antigop]

33. All the best, Demeter. Hope things continue to improve for you and your daughter. n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

36. {{{{hugs}}}} to you and your daughter

We never really know the stresses that are on our individual lives, the quiet desperations that each of us deal with on a constant, unrelenting basis.

Be strong, be sane, be thankful for the blessings that come your way.



Tansy

[Roland99]

41. A better ending to a rough year. Hope things keep improving!

[UpInArms]

46. sounds like your world is on the uptick, Demeter,

I hope it continues in that direction forever

:grouphug:

[Hugin]

60. Great news, Demeter!

Yay! :party:



Unfortunately, I think little politically motivated Hells seem to follow the rules of Thermodynamics... When a bit
goes away in one place it's replaced by another in a different place.

Where I'm living, here in the heart o' McCranky Country... If you can believe it, my 80 year old Dad was cited
for having excessively high 'weeds and grass' in his yard. (Over 6") He has deliberately let some of them grow due
to the fact the particular 'weed' in question is the sole nourishment of the fabulous Monarch Butterfly who are currently
migrating through the area.

But, as I look around the area... There are MANY MANY yards in the same or worse condition in the neighborhood. So, I
have to ask. Why didn't those other houses get cited? Could it be my Dad's Obama sign? Naw. Our Palinesque Brown Shirt
Chamber of Commerce run City Government couldn't possibly have a grudge. Ah, well... What do I expect living in one of
the 4 or 5 villages in the U.S. where they actually held a book burning of Harry Potter books and has passed an ordinance
forbidding writing letters in support of the United Nations. :eyes:

Looks like I'm going to have to take my life in my hands (Owing to an antifilactic shock level allergy to grass) and
do some mowing this afternoon. Ah, the civil court case I bring against the Local Reich will be sweet.

[Dr.Phool]

61. Here's hoping everything comes out to a happy ending.

I know that once you're trapped in that system, it can be a nightmare. My wife works for the agency that handles foster care in our county. A bad system made worse when Jeb privatized it. She's just a receptionist, but she's in a position to see all the bullshit. The only reason she sticks around is to play with the babies and children.

Here's a toast :toast: to a much happier and prosperous coming year.

[AnneD]

70. Morning marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Thanks for sharing. I am glad to hear the rest of the story. I stopped all the court ordered support and lessons etc. in May. I did give her music teacher 2 weeks severance bonus and continue to keep her on my insurance. I thought I would feel the benefits the following month but things had run down so much-June and July were new tires and AC repairs and August was a graduation party and ready for college. Sept was the hurricane and the IRS. This month is the first I have felt like I had money in 5 years (and I get a third check too). My emergency fund is full, I have surplus squirreled away, my Christmas gift (a thanksgiving week trip to California to see my girl) is paid for and my Holiday Club account is full. I am in negotiation now and will pay off 2 creditors this month God willing:woohoo:.

I had to fill in a big hole a teaspoon full of dirt at a time. It has been a Shankshaw Redemption experience for me.

I am so happy that you intend to sue the bitch that caused you and your daughter such grief. That will be the icing on your cake. Once they see that you have thorns, the less likely they are to stick their hands in your business. That 'for your daughters 'safety' is the fig leaf they used to rationalize going in and attacking you.

Happy hunting and the bears better watch out for you Demeter!

I will not sue my ex or report him for wrong doing I know to be going on-but I am debating about getting a PI work up his finances, etc to be prepared. I suspect he is sitting on money given for my daughter's support and should his mother die-he would not put into trust a portion of inheritance money for the care of his older mentally handicapped sister.

He will do what is right and just by his sister and family... wither he wants to or not. He is painting himself into a really bad corner and I do feel sorry for what he will have to bear in his old age. But I don't fret too much about it.

I have had to worker harder than I should to repair the damage he did to the relationship my daughter and I have, but time is giving her wisdom and understanding. I am sure your daughter will develop this understanding too-to her best ability. But tying this faux do good-er will make her think twice before causing grief to others or even thinking about doing it to you again. I am so happy things are turning around for you-I really have felt you pain and send prayers your way every time I think/know you might need them.

[JNelson6563]

136. We're all pulling for you!

Glad you're approaching the light at the end of the tunnel. :toast: To better days, soon!

Julie

[Wednesdays]

150. Here's to better days ahead

:toast:

So sorry to hear of the grief you had to go through. People can really be jerks sometimes. Hopefully that'll all be behind you soon.

[truthisfreedom]

22. It's about as weird as this...

¡2102-1102 ɟo uoıssǝɹdǝp ɹɐǝq ʇɐǝɹƃ ǝɥʇ ןıʇun ʍou ɯoɹɟ ʎןןɐɹ ɹɐǝq ɐ sı ǝǝs noʎ ƃuıɥʇʎɹǝʌǝ puɐ 'ǝɯıʇ ƃuoן ɐ ɹoɟ ɹǝʇʇǝq ɥɔnɯ ʇǝƃ oʇ ʇı ʇɔǝdxǝ ʇ,uop 'ʎɐʍ ǝɥʇ ʎq enjoy your stay! ¡ʎɯouoɔǝ ʍǝu ǝɥʇ ɟo pןɹoʍ uʍop-ǝpısdn 'ʇno-ǝpısuı ʎʌɹnʇ-ʎsdoʇ ǝɥʇ oʇ ǝɯoɔןǝʍ ¡ʎǝɥ

[DemReadingDU]

24. lol

I had to turn my head upside down to read that!

[Demeter]

25. And When You See the Charts from that Angle, Things Couldn't Be Better!

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Retail Sales Sep
Briefing.com -0.5%
Consensus -0.7%
Prior -0.3%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Sep
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus -0.2%
Prior -0.7%

08:30 PPI Sep
Briefing.com -0.4%
Consensus -0.4%
Prior -0.9%

08:30 Core PPI Sep
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 NY Empire State Index Oct
Briefing.com -8.5
Consensus -10.0
Prior -7.4

10:00 Business Inventories Aug
Briefing.com 0.6%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 1.1%

10:35 Crude Inventories 10/11
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

14:00 Fed's Beige Book

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

31. US mortgage applications rise on refinancing -MBA

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1445143620081015?sp=true

NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications rose for a second consecutive week, reflecting a jump in demand for home loan refinancing even as interest rates surged, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications <USMGM=ECI>, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Oct. 10 increased 5.1 percent to 489.3.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.47 percent, up 0.48 percentage point from the previous week.

Interest rates were above year-ago levels of 6.40 percent.

"Treasury yields were extremely volatile last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note -- the benchmark for 30-year fixed mortgage rate -- moved up about 40 basis points over the course of the week," Orawin Velz, the MBA's associate vice president of economic forecasting, said in a statement.

"Lower yields earlier in the week appeared to have spurred refinance activity, which then faded as the week went on and rates began to rise." she said.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index <USMGPI=ECI> fell 0.3 percent to 313.5. The index came in well below its year-ago level of 429.1, a drop of 26.9 percent.

Overall mortgage applications last week were 25.4 percent below their year-ago level. The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smooths the volatile weekly figures, was down 7.9 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. Oct. Empire State index falls to record low -24.6

01. U.S. Oct. Empire State index falls to record low -24.6
8:30 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

[Roland99]

38. More detail....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-oct-empire-state-index/story.aspx?guid=%7B1A2442B2%2DAB8A%2D4FA0%2DB9CA%2D8C16F58289E9%7D&dist=morenews

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area deteriorated sharply in October, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Wednesday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to a record negative 24.6 in October from negative 7.4 in September. The new orders index also fell to a record low, and the indexes for shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories all declined sharply. The Empire State index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's October national factory survey due out in two weeks may show. In September, the ISM manufacturing fell from 49.9 to 43.5, a seven-year low.

[Roland99]

34. WHOLESALE-LEVEL INFLATION FOR SEPTEMBER RUNS MODESTLY HOTTER THAN EXPECTED

Producer prices fall 0.4% in September, energy prices down
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B615CC693%2D7DC5%2D491A%2DBE9F%2DD049435137D7%7D&siteid=mktw

core producer prices rose 0.4% last month. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a decrease of 0.6% in overall PPI, and a 0.2% increase in the core rate. Producer prices are up 8.7% over the past 12 months. Prices for crude core goods fell a record 9.4% in September, compared with the previous record drop of 7.7% in 1974. In August, overall producer prices fell 0.9%, while the core gained 0.2%

[Roland99]

35. Retail sales tumble 1.2% in September

Retail sales tumble 1.2% in September
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/retail-sales-tumble-12-september/story.aspx?guid=%7B12596191%2D8796%2D472B%2D892D%2D5879B09D508B%7D&dist=morenews

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in September, the biggest drop in three years and the third decline in a row, a further sign that the economy has sunk into a recession led by an exhausted consumer. Retail sales were down 1% compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales were weak in almost all kinds of stores. Excluding the 3.8% drop in auto sales, retail sales fell 0.6%. The 1.2% decline was worse than the 0.8% drop forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

[UpInArms]

37. U.S. Sept. retail sales fall 1.2% vs. -0.8% expected - U.S. PPI up 8.7% in past year

01. U.S. September crude energy PPI down 11.7%
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

02. U.S. PPI up 8.7% in past year
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

03. U.S. September food PPI up 0.2%
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

04. U.S. September energy PPI down 2.9%
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

05. U.S. September core PPI up 0.4% vs. 0.2% gain expected
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

06. U.S. September PPI down 0.4% vs. 0.6% loss expected
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

07. U.S. September crude energy PPI down 11.7%
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

08. U.S. PPI up 8.7% in past year
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

09. U.S. September food PPI up 0.2%
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

10. U.S. September energy PPI down 2.9%
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

16. U.S. September core PPI up 0.4% vs. 0.2% gain expected
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

17. U.S. September PPI down 0.4% vs. 0.6% loss expected
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

18. U.S. Sept. retail sales fall 1.2% vs. -0.8% expected
8:31 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

[UpInArms]

80. Third straight decline caps worst quarter in more than a decade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/retail-sales-tumble-12-capping/story.aspx?guid=%7BE6B385FD%2D2E14%2D4474%2DA543%2D49F948B39228%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in September, the worst drop in three years and the third decline in a row, a further sign that the economy has sunk into a recession led by an exhausted consumer.

The 1.2% decline reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was worse than the 0.8% drop forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Sales in July and August were revised marginally lower, signaling that real consumer spending likely fell in the quarter for the first time in 17 years. It was the first time sales had fallen three months in a row since early 1991.

"We have a full-blooded consumer recession," wrote John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics, who expect sales will weaken further in the fourth quarter as the credit squeeze begins to really tighten on consumers' ability to spend.

Economists at Morgan Stanley said consumer spending probably fell at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter. "This would be first decline in consumption since the 1990-91 recession and largest since 1980," they said.

Sales were down 1% compared with a year earlier, the first time sales had been down year-over-year since 2002.

...more...

[UpInArms]

81. U.S. Aug. inventories rise 0.3%

18. U.S. Aug. inventories rise 0.3%
10:02 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

[ozymandius]

4. Oil falls below $78 on recession fears

SINGAPORE - Oil prices fell below $78 a barrel Wednesday in Asia on concern a massive bank bailout by the U.S. and Europe won't keep the global economy from slipping into a severe slowdown that would erode crude demand.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery was down 98 cents to $77.65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell overnight $2.56 to settle at $78.63. Oil prices have fallen by 47 percent since peaking near $150 a barrel in mid-July.

....

Investors are watching for signs of slowing U.S. demand in the weekly oil inventories report to be released Thursday from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that oil stocks rose 3.1 million barrels last week, according to the average of analysts' estimates in a survey by energy information provider Platts.

The Platts survey also showed that analysts projected gasoline inventories rose 3.1 million barrels and distillates went down 850,000 barrels last week.

....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 2.26 cents to $2.2823 a gallon, while gasoline prices fell 0.34 cent to $1.8814 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery rose 0.05 cent to $6.732 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

30. November crude down $2.99 to $75.59 a barrel on Globex

10. November crude down $2.99 to $75.59 a barrel on Globex
7:58 AM ET, Oct 15, 2008

[ozymandius]

5. Federal bank buy-in no economic quick-fix

WASHINGTON - With any luck, the government's quarter-trillion dollar cash infusion in banks will get them lending again, but the radical move won't quickly turn around the tottering economy.

The pain will almost certainly drag on as vanishing jobs, shrinking paychecks and nest eggs, and slumping home values continue to force millions of Americans to pull back.

Sales at the nation's retailers are expected to drop in September even as they get a break from record-high energy prices. Uncertainty about the economy — and their own financial fortunes — probably will force consumers and businesses alike to hunker down further, spelling more problems for the already troubled economy.

.....

If the government's new plan works — it will merely cushion the blow. Democrats on Capitol Hill are pushing for another round of stimulus that could cost as much as $150 billion, an effort to provide additional relief and lift the country out of the doldrums.

.....

The government's cash infusions are attractive to banks because they are having trouble getting money from elsewhere. Skittish investors have cut them off, moving their money into safer Treasury securities. Financial institutions are hoarding whatever cash they have rather than lending it to each other or customers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081015/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[ozymandius]

6. Smaller Banks Resist Federal Cash Infusions

Community banking executives around the country responded with anger yesterday to the Bush administration's strategy of investing $250 billion in financial firms, saying they don't need the money, resent the intrusion and feel it's unfair to rescue companies from their own mistakes.

But regulators said some banks will be pressed to take the taxpayer dollars anyway. Others banks judged too sick to save will be allowed to fail.

The government also said yesterday that it will guarantee up to $1.4 trillion of private investment in banks. The combination of public and private investment is intended to refill coffers emptied by losses on real estate lending. With the additional money, the government expects, banks would be able to start making additional loans, boosting the economy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/14/AR2008101403378.html?hpid=topnews

[Demeter]

18. Surprising, Isn't It? Turning Down Free Money!

Money without even any strings attached that anybody's been able to discern. Maybe the banks figure a President Obama with Krugman (as an example) as Treasury Secretary would be inclined to add strings, and pull them frequently?

I do hope to god that Obama picks a competent, militant Cabinet, with the exception of a Dove for Defense....and that they all engage in righting wrongs.

[ozymandius]

7. World stock markets drop after 2-day rally

LONDON — European and Asian stock markets mostly fell back Tuesday after a two-day rally amid profit-taking and concerns that the global efforts to restore confidence in the battered financial system will not be enough to stave off a deep recession.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 130.91 points, or 3.0 percent, at 4,263.30. Germany's DAX was 127.03 points, or 2.4 percent, lower at 5,072.16, while France's CAC-40 was 85.29 points, or 2.4 percent, down at 3,543.23.

The losses in Europe's follow similar declines in the U.S. and most Asian markets, except Japan.

....

Though the rescue packages have helped confidence in markets recover somewhat, evidenced by Monday's record rise on Wall Street and the modest easing in interbank lending rates, they will do nothing to prevent a serious economic slowdown.

....

Resource issues have also taken a hit on worries about slowing demand. Shares in Posco, the world's fourth-largest steelmaker, lost almost 8.7 percent in South Korea, while BHP Billiton Ltd, Australia's largest oil and gas producer, sank more than 4 percent.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/6059166.html

[ozymandius]

16. Mumbai, Hong Kong tumble as pessimism returns

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets ended mostly lower Wednesday, renouncing some of their recent gains, as Hong Kong stocks were battered on worries about a global economic slowdown, while a weak earnings report from Larsen & Toubro dragged down Mumbai shares.

Japanese stocks ended mixed after trading lower for most of the session, helped by a late burst of buying in financials such as Mizuho Financial Group and exporters like Nintendo Co.

....

The Hang Seng Index tumbled 5% to 15,998.30, with selling intensifying in afternoon trading after European markets opened lower. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 6.4% to 7,894.06.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Average ended up 1.1% at 9,547.47 earlier, on top of the 14.2% surge it recorded in the previous session. The benchmark fell as low as 9,269.49 earlier in the day, before rebounding in late afternoon trading. The broader Topix index slipped 0.1% to 955.51.

In Mumbai, the Sensitive Index, or Sensex, sank 5.4% to 10,865.33 in afternoon trading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/asia-markets-mumbai-hong-kong/story.aspx?guid={6BD6E13F-F9CE-44D2-ABEB-ECCB4A4FEF2B}&dist=hplatest

[ozymandius]

8. New York 'faces 165,000 job cuts'

New York City could lose as many as 165,000 jobs as a result of the crisis in the financial sector, the city's chief financial officer has warned.

Comptroller William Thompson estimates the positions will go over the next two years, including 35,000 directly employed in the financial sector.

....

As the country's financial industry is centred on New York, the city is bearing the brunt of the downturn that has seen Lehman Brothers seek bankruptcy protection, and fellow investment bank Merrill Lynch bought by Bank of America.

'General recession'

Mr Thompson said the increase in his job cut estimate reflected "the spreading of the economic troubles to other industry sectors as the nation slips into a general recession".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7671111.stm

[ozymandius]

9. Tap Water’s Popularity Forces Pepsi to Cut Jobs

Tap water is making a comeback. That’s bad news for PepsiCo’s profits.

The company, which makes Pepsi, Doritos and Quaker Oats cereal, announced on Tuesday that its quarterly earnings were down 10 percent in part because of declines in sales of soda and bottled water in the United States.

In response, the company is planning to eliminate 3,300 jobs and close as many as six plants to cut costs and to refocus its efforts on stabilizing its domestic beverage business.

.....

Sales of carbonated soft drinks have been declining in the United States for several years, as consumers turn to a growing number of new beverages like enhanced waters, sports drinks and energy drinks. But the problems have accelerated in a volatile economy, with consumers eating at restaurants less and buying fewer grab-and-go beverages.

In addition, consumers are increasingly choosing tap water over other beverages at restaurants and at home to help save money and the environment, according to PepsiCo and industry analysts. Research by William Pecoriello, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, found that 34 percent of consumers say they are reusing plastic bottles more often and 23 percent say they are cutting back on bottled beverages in favor of tap water or beverages in containers that create less waste.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/business/15pepsi.html?ref=business

[Robbien]

90. Bad news which makes one smile

Less ground water being surrounded by petroleum products and sold as a healthier alternative to municipal water.

That's good news indeed.

[ozymandius]

10. Lehman's Hedge Fund Clients Face Margin Calls on Frozen Assets

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s hedge-fund clients may have to pay more collateral on $65 billion of assets frozen when the investment bank went bankrupt a month ago.

Lehman's London-based prime brokerage has about 3,500 active clients including hedge funds that own about $45 billion in securities, Steven Pearson, the partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers responsible for unraveling the unit, said in an interview. They hold an additional $20 billion in short positions, or bets that prices will fall.

While investors are largely unable to access their Lehman accounts, the value of the securities continues to fluctuate along with the markets. The clients may be required to put up more collateral if the value of those securities drops, a process known as a margin call.

....

`Years to Unravel'

PwC has been sorting through assets to separate those Lehman held in trust on behalf of clients and those the bank held as collateral from clients that it could then loan to other investors, a practice known as rehypothecation.

``The biggest losers will be those who had the most assets rehypothecated because they're gone,'' said Pearson. ``Asset that have been rehypothecated rank together with all creditors as to when they will get money back.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afNVoeGuCr34&refer=us

[Robbien]

114. Rehypothecated?

Per Websters, Hypothecate means to pledge property to another as security without transferring possession of title.

Why are they using the term rehypothecated instead of resecuritized?

[fedsron2us]

122. My guess is some of the hedge funds will simply walk away.

Best of luck to PCW in closing out the shorts

[ozymandius]

11. U.S. Stock Futures Drop on Economic Concern; Wal-Mart Falls

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell as San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said the economy is in a recession and investors speculated a government report today will show retail sales are declining.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's biggest retailer, dropped 1 percent in Germany amid concern a $2 trillion global bank rescue won't stave off an economic contraction. Dell Inc. slipped 2.8 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded shares of the world's second-largest personal computer maker.

Futures suggested the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will retreat for a second day after the market's biggest rally since the 1930s on Oct. 13. U.S. investors looked past earnings from Intel Corp. that beat analysts' estimates, while stocks in Europe and Asia fell for the first time in three days.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ac9ZA2Nndemo&refer=us

[ozymandius]

12. early futures

S&P 500 -11.50 990.80 10/15 6:07am

NASDAQ -6.00 1360.00 10/15 5:45am

Dow Jones -131.00 9231.00 10/15 6:04am

[ozymandius]

13. Stocks: No staying power

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Technology shares led a broader retreat Tuesday as the government's plan to spend $250 billion on stock in banks failed to extend the previous session's historic rally.

Credit markets eased a bit, with a key overnight bank lending rate falling. Treasury prices slumped, raising the corresponding yields. The dollar fell against the euro and the yen. Oil, gold and gas prices eased.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 76 points, after having fallen as much as 302 points in the afternoon and having risen as much as 406 points in the morning. The decline was equal to 0.8%.

.....

Libor, the overnight bank-to-bank lending rate, fell to 2.18% from 2.47% Friday, according to Bloomberg.com.

The three-month Libor, what banks charge each other to borrow for three months, fell to 4.64% from 4.75% Monday.

The Libor-OIS spread, a measure of cash scarcity, decreased to 3.39% from a record high of 3.67% Friday.

The TED spread, which is the difference between what banks pay to borrow from each other for three months and what the Treasury pays, edged up to 4.30% from an earlier reading of 4.09%. The TED spread stood at a record 4.65% Friday. The wider the spread, the more reluctant banks are to lend to each other.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/14/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008101417

[clixtox]

20. Did we just see the largest "dead cat bounce" ever?

Hold on to your hats and your cash!

[Roland99]

39. 8:40am - DJIA -220; NASDAQ -25; S&P -26; Oil -2.81 to 75.82

[ozymandius]

14. Which banks live or die? Wielding $250 billion, U.S. may decide

By flooding the U.S. banking system with hundreds of billions of dollars in cheap capital, the government could find itself funding the most dramatic change in the nation's financial landscape since the deregulation drive of the 1980s.

That's because the Treasury secretary and bank regulators will decide which banks get an infusion of government money, and which will be denied. Many of the nation's 8,400 banks -- especially the smaller and weaker among them -- may be allowed to fail or be swallowed by bigger rivals, industry analysts say.

....

The stock market reflected that fact Tuesday, he said, noting that investors bid up the shares of banks more likely to be helped by the government, while shares of capital-starved institutions considered unlikely to get government funds declined.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-banks15-2008oct15,0,416057.story

[54anickel]

56. My gosh, it's like watching the banker dreams from the 80's come true. The president of the bank

I worked for back then said the goal was to reduce the number of national banks to 6-12 major ones through mergers and aquistions, making them nearly impossible for local and state chartered banks to compete with. That was the dream, and back then the first step was being allowed to cross state lines. No wonder the smaller, local banks that have been prudent are ticked about the bale out.

[Demeter]

21. Icelandic women to clean up ‘male mess’ By Sarah O’Connor in Reykjavik

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c347a766-994b-11dd-9d48-000077b07658.html



Iceland has turned to two women to rebuild its financial system after the banking empire built by its young, male business-schooled elite collapsed. Elín Sigfúsdóttir and Birna Einarsdóttir are set to become chief executives of New Landsbanki and New Glitnir respectively, the nationalised banks created by the Icelandic government in the wake of the crisis. One government minister said their appointments were an attempt to signal a new culture within the banking system.

Landsbanki, Glitnir and Kaupthing – infamous for their aggressive international expansion – collapsed last week under the weight of their debt, leaving the Icelandic economy on the brink of bankruptcy. Recriminations have been flying in Iceland over who is to blame, with the British government a popular target. But many have also criticised the young and predominantly male bankers whose “eyes became bigger than their stomachs”, as one banker conceded.

“Now the women are taking over,” said one government official. “It’s typical, the men make the mess and the women come in to clean it up.”

The government created New Landsbanki last week and put Ms Sigfúsdóttir in place. New Glitnir was being formed on Monday, with Ms Einarsdóttir widely expected to take the top job. The banks’ new chief executives were both promoted from within the ranks of the failed banks: Ms Sigfúsdóttir has been head of corporate banking at Landsbanki since 2003 and Ms Einarsdóttir became head of domestic commercial banking at Glitnir last summer. The women are expected to curb the bonus-driven risk-taking culture that has taken hold in Iceland over the past five years. The nationalised banks will focus solely on domestic operations, keeping money flowing around Iceland’s hobbled economy. A New Kaupthing is also planned.

ASIDE FROM THE FEMALE CHAUVINISM, I FIND IT TELLING THAT THESE WERE YOUNG MEN, PROBABLY AMERICAN B SCHOOL GRADUATES...THE KIND THAT HAVE KILLED MOST OF AMERICAN BUSINESS.

REMEMBER THE DRUG WARS, AND HOW THE ARGUMENT WENT THAT: YOUR DOCTOR STUDIED AND DIDN'T DO DRUGS. BUT WHAT WILL YOUR CHILDREN FACE FOR MEDICAL CARE IF DRUGS AREN'T STOPPED? WELL, IT'S THE CORRUPTION, ISN'T IT? IF A COMMUNITY BREAKS ONE LAW, WHAT PREVENTS THEM FROM BREAKING THEM ALL? THE HINTS COMING OUT NOW POINT TO A CULTURE SO CORRUPT, THAT NO LAW, NOT EVEN THE CONSTITUTION, WAS SACRED.

BREAKING A BAD LAW IS ONE THING. ONE MUST DO SO PUBLICLY AND TAKE ALL THE RISKS, TO EFFECT CHANGE, AND SCRUPULOUSLY UPHOLD THE REST OF THE BODY OF LAW.

BUT BREAKING ALL THE LAWS BECAUSE "EVERYBODY DOES IT", OR WORSE, BECAUSE THE LEADERS DO, IS THE ROAD TO RUIN. ASK THE ROMANS, THE GREEKS, THE GERMANS.

BEING A SOCIETY MEANS A COVENANT OF LAWS. WITHOUT THAT, WE ARE NO BETTER THAN IGNORANT BEASTS, THE STRONG PREYING ON THE WEAK.

[UpInArms]

27. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 81.264 Change -0.274 (-0.35%)

US Dollar Response To US Recapitalization Plan Proves Lackluster - Why?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Response_To_US_1224022166456.html

The US dollar ended the day lower versus most of the majors, though the bulk of the action came overnight in anticipation of the US government’s big recapitalization plan announcement. In fact, the greenback hardly budged during the NY trading session as the forex markets simply consolidated their larger moves. There are two topics to discuss: 1) what did the plan entail and 2) why didn’t it spark a US dollar rally? First, as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the US Treasury will proceed with a "voluntary capital purchase program" where the US government will buy up to $250 billion in preferred shares from financial institutions at "attractive rates" for the US taxpayer. Institutions that sell shares will have to agree to restrictions on executive compensation, such as the golden parachutes that many corporate CEO's have received despite the underperformance of their firms. The hope is that once the markets stabilize and share prices rise, the taxpayer will actually make a profit. Meanwhile, the FDIC will guarantee the senior debt of all FDIC-insured institutions and their holding companies for 3 years, along with deposits in non-interest bearing deposit transaction accounts (such as basic business payroll checking accounts, which were not protected before). The goal? To allow financial institutions easier access to liquidity by boosting confidence in these banks, which should convince investors that it is safe enough to buy their debt and hold their deposits with the banks. Finally, the Federal Reserve also announced that its Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) program will fund purchases of commercial paper of 3 month maturity from high-quality issuers. The goal here is to allow the commercial paper markets, which have been frozen, to become functional once again.

Now, why didn’t the US dollar rally on all of this theoretically “good” news? Like the Japanese yen, the US dollar tends to gain during times of risk aversion, and conversely, has a tendency to fall when traders become more risk seeking and buy up carry trades. On Tuesday, however, we saw that most markets simply consolidated as volatility remained fairly high. In fact, the CBOE’s VIX Index ended the day very little changed from yesterday, suggesting that the US government’s actions have failed to completely alleviate investors fears. Looking ahead to Wednesday, US Advance Retail Sales are expected to fall for the third month in a row in September, with consensus forecasts by Bloomberg News calling for a 0.7 percent decline. According to the latest report from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), sales slowed to a 1.0 percent annual pace in September from 1.7 percent in August thanks to a pullback in spending on discretionary items such as apparel and furniture. Furthermore, spending at discount and wholesale clubs slowed as well, suggesting that deteriorating labor market conditions and plunging assets prices are taking a hefty toll on consumption patterns. Clearly, there’s quite a bit of downside risk for this particular report, with disappointing readings likely to lead the US dollar lower for at least a brief time.

...more...

Dollar Strength Over Extended Shaky Safe Haven Status

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Dollar_Strength_Over_Extended_Shaky_1223691685761.html

Despite the approval of a massive $700 billion bailout plan and coordinated global rate cut, panic continues to dominate market sentiment. For the US dollar, the influence of this undesirable state will determine whether the currency can sustain its aggressive rally or a dramatic retracement brings it back to Earth. To understand where the greenback will go, we need to first understand how it has come to this point. How can a currency that represents a 1.50 percent benchmark lending rate, an oncoming recession and the epicenter for a financial crisis rally against nearly every one of its major counterparts? Security. While the dollar has few redeeming features fundamentally, the US is still the largest economy in the world with deeply liquid Treasuries that can be unequivocally deemed ‘risk-free’ even as traditional asset classes suffer their worst declines in decades. This safe haven status has proven itself to be nearly as universal as the sell off in risky assets has been. However, the consistency can work both ways. Just as surely as the demand for liquidity has driven the dollar higher, a return in risk appetite or signal that the US market itself is no longer a refuge could quickly reverse the dollar’s fortunes.

Monday happens to be a US banking holiday (Columbus Day); but few Forex traders will likely take the day off. Instead, they will be joining the world’s masses in appraising the plans that come out of this weekend’s G7 meeting. At the close of Friday’s US session, the global economic authorities released a list of agreed upon “common guidelines” for addressing the ballooning crisis. The vague steps called for: taking ‘decisive action’ to support systemically important financial institutions; unfreeze credit markets and secure liquidity and funding to banks; ensure the ability for firms to raise private and public funds to revive confidence; guarantee national deposit insurance; and restarting secondary markets for securitized assets (like mortgages). These are lofty goals and politics will be a high hurdle to make headway on any and all of them. However, details and action are what this skeptical market will need to revive confidence in lending and investment. More than likely, additional monetary easing (cutting benchmark and discount lending rates) and capital injections will be points that can be easily passed. What the market really needs though is all-encompassing guarantees on interbank lending and consumer bank deposits.

Months and years from now, recent record-breaking market declines will be considered panic or irrational exuberance. However, the longer this imbalance lasts, the greater the long-term impact will be on the financial markets and economic growth. Policy and regulation may hamper a return of speculative funds just as surely as lingering fears will. What’s more, the pinch on lending that is being felt now is already guiding the US towards recession. Nevertheless, policy officials have few options other than taking extreme steps to put out the fire. – JK



...more...

[UpInArms]

28. GE under siege

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/09/news/companies/colvin_ge.fortune/index.htm

excerpt:

So here's what had just happened: General Electric had arranged to raise $15 billion on a few days' notice. For perspective, remember that in March, Visa had culminated months of preparation by staging the largest stock offering ever, raising $18 billion. In other words, GE needed a sudden, huge, and utterly unexpected emergency infusion of cash. Only six days before, when a Wall Street analyst had asked GE chief Jeff Immelt about the possibility of the company's selling new equity, Immelt had answered unequivocally: "We just don't see it right now. We feel very secure about how the funding looks."

The idea that GE might ever be desperate for cash would have seemed ludicrous a year ago and looked unworthy of concern even this past summer. After all, this is history's most famously well-managed company. But now the stock trades for less than half its price 12 months ago. More than $200 billion of value has vaporized.

In its most recent earnings announcement, on Oct. 10, GE said profits fell 22% in the third quarter, driven down by a 38% drop in earnings from financial services; profits there should continue to decline, the company said. GE remains highly profitable; analysts expect it to earn about $20 billion this year, but that's 10% less than last year, a sharp change from earlier forecasts of robust growth. And for the first time in memory, investors are pricing GE at a level that indicates that they expect it to shrink rather than grow, a surreal situation.

<snip>

To see how GE got so badly beaten up, consider first what the company really is. Its strength and curse is that it looks a lot like the economy. Over the decades GE's well-known manufacturing businesses - jet engines, locomotives, appliances, light bulbs have shrunk as a proportion of the total. Like America, GE has long been mainly in the business of services. The most important and profitable services it offers are financial. In fact, though the average citizen probably thinks of GE as a great industrial company, its industry classification in the Fortune 500 is diversified financials. It is by far the largest company in that industry group. The next biggest - and here we begin to glimpse GE's troubles - are Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500).

The reality is that for years, about half of GE's prodigious profits have come from General Electric Capital, a 100%-owned affiliate that files its own reports with the SEC. GE Capital, headed by 29-year GE veteran Michael Neal, has ventured into practically every kind of financial service, from making car loans in Europe to investing in commercial real estate in Florida. If you have a credit card from Wal-Mart or Lowe's, it's really from GE Capital. The business owns almost 1,800 commercial airplanes and leases them to 225 airlines. Until last year it made subprime mortgages in the U.S.

...lots more...

[54anickel]

109. Can't offer any sympathy here. I so loath that company. n/t

[Wednesdays]

147. Really.

My wife had to have some major dental work done about 3 years ago. We didn't have the cash up front, but the dentist re-assured her that she could "have the work financed." If I were there I would have vetoed that plan, but my wife was convinced and signed on to the deal, since after all, at least it wasn't a credit card.

What it turned out to be, was a credit card account without the card, financed by GE Money Bank. After a year of paying on time, she was one day late with a payment--they tacked on a $35 late fee, plus they jacked up the interest rate to 29%. As of today, we've paid at least $1500 for that $1300 worth of dental work, and we're still paying on it. Know what our current balance is? $1197.25!

And it's GE that's in financial trouble? :nopity:

Hey, maybe if GE is hurting that badly, we can loan them money on the same terms they loaned to us. We'd be pretty well-off, I'd say.

(As a side note, the dentist was shocked, *shocked*, to find that GE had usury lending practices. Personally, I'd dump that chump, but the wife insists on staying with him because she thinks he's really nice. She says he reminds her of Mr. Rogers. :eyes:)

[Dr.Phool]

152. What is it with Dentists?

Mine tried to rope me into Amway.

[Wednesdays]

155. My poli sci professor said

there was a survey that claimed 80% of M.D.'s are Republicans. That was 20 years ago, and it may have been a flawed survey, but to me that doesn't sound too far-fetched. Additionally, I'm convinced the numbers are similar among dentists. Remember the dentist that wanted to shut down Phil Donahue in the early 90s? My own dentist, while to her credit does excellent work and is fair about billing, has Fox Noise playing all the time on the TV in the exam room. I go to her because she's the best dentist I've ever had, but it does bother me that her office is in a very large building with pristine mahogany trim and expensive teal carpeting (my childhood dentist was in a very modest little building with rather plain furnishings).

Having said that, hardly all doctors and dentists are wingnuts, and quite a lot of them are not just in it for the money. We have at least one dentist who is very active here on DU (PCIntern, I think, is one), and I enjoy reading his posts and learning about the profession from one who is definitely interested in the well-being of the people he serves.

[UpInArms]

29. FACTBOX-Credit derivatives market in facts, figures

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLE19313020081015?sp=true

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Regulators have stepped up calls since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last month for more supervision of the $55 trillion credit derivatives market to improve its safety and transparency.

Below are facts about the market to date.


HOW THEY WORK: Credit default swaps (CDS) are over-the-counter contracts between two counterparties that bet on whether a company will default on its bonds within a fixed period of time.

In its simplest form, one side of a CDS contract pays an annual fee to buy protection against default. The other side, the seller of protection, promises to cover losses in the value of the debt if a default takes place within the period of the contract.

When the market began trading, if a default or other agreed "credit event" such as change of control occurred, the buyer of protection would hand the bond over to the seller in return for its face value. Cash settlement is now a more common market option (see below).

Investors use CDS to hedge against cash investments or to speculate on the direction of the credit markets.


MARKET SIZE

end-2001: $918 billion

end-2002: $2.2 trillion

end-2003: $3.8 trillion

end-2004: $8.4 trillion

end-2005: $17.1 trillion

end-2006: $34.4 trillion

end-2007: $62.3 trillion

mid-2008: $54.6 trillion

Amount of outstanding contracts, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA).

...more...

please note that almost all of this derivatives market mess exploded under this mal-administration's lack of regulation and failure to oversee the markets.

[Roland99]

40. TED Spread - 4.32

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND

[54anickel]

42. Looks like the futures have finally settled on the day's direction. n/t

[Roland99]

43. Bush commenting on extraordinary measures for extraordinary times

Futures markets comforted by words of ... wisdom. DJIA only -193.

[ozymandius]

44. The Dow has taken notice. Something dribbled from the piehole.

Dow Jones -227.00 9135.00 10/15 9:00am

[UpInArms]

47. looks like that $2.3 Trillion injection on Monday didn't go very far

:eyes:

[DemReadingDU]

45. Paulson Lacks Leverage to Compel Banks to Put New Cash to Work

Paulson Lacks Leverage to Compel Banks to Put New Cash to Work
By Robert Schmidt and Rebecca Christie

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson persuaded nine major U.S. banks to accept $125 billion in government investment. Getting them to lend it out may prove a tougher sell.

The equity stakes the government is purchasing in Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and seven other big institutions come with no guarantee that the investments will spur lending and unfreeze credit markets. Nor do they give the government board seats or any other leverage to demand that that the firms actually use the money to help the economy.

``The truth of the matter is, they can't put a gun to their head and say you have to lend this money,'' said Charles Horn, a former official at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, part of the Treasury Department, and now a partner at the Mayer Brown law firm in Washington.

Treasury officials acknowledge they can't force banks to get the taxpayer money into the hands of their customers. Instead, officials are betting that the government's investment will create conditions where banks have a greater incentive to earn profits from lending than to hoard money to shore up their balance sheets.

``It's in their economic interest,'' said David Nason, the Treasury's assistant secretary for financial institutions, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``When you give them a stronger capital position and you also provide a certain amount of government backstop to their funding sources, it's incumbent upon them to go out and continue to lend.''

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amZ3uCIUB8GQ&refer=home


If the banks aren't lending the money (from our taxes), what are they doing with it?

[ozymandius]

48. The terms forbid them to hoard it.

Possibly used for operational costs? :shrug:

[UpInArms]

51. maybe give those execs bonuses, but they'll not call it "compensation"

they'll describe it as some form of extraordinary stress payment

:shrug:

[ozymandius]

57. Well, it could happen.

The limits to executive pay are pretty weak and subject to artful interpretation.

[Dr.Phool]

66. Maybe buy tanker loads of oil, and keep it off the market?

It worked so good earlier this year.

[happyslug]

124. Unlike 1979, there is NO EVIDENCE of oil being kept off the Market.

The reason oil went up so high was speculators bid it up, and until you had a substantial drop in usage do to high prices, the tight supply of oil prevented any surplus from building up. Once gasoline hit $4 a gallon in the US, people STOP buying gasoline and that pushed the price down. Rapid increases in price and rapid declines in price are typical of tight markets. We have had a tight market since 2004 and as long as that is the case you will see such radical increase in price and decreases in price as we have seen in the last year. Fear feeds in itself, as price raises people are afraid of being shut out so they buy and buy. Sooner or later the price hits a point where people say no, and do without and then the fear change, it now as the price declines and people want to sell it for the highest price TODAY, let the price tomorrow be lower.

I do NOT see any increase in oil prices till November when the Northern Heating season begins. At that point I see price increasing, and maybe following the same path it did in the Spring and early summer as people anticipated the Summer Driving Season. My advice would be to buy your oil for heating this winter right now, for come the middle of November I expect it to bottom out and start to go back up (The harder the winter the higher the price will become). Come February and March I expect the price to drop again. This has all to do with how TIGHT the market it for oil right now and has been since about 2004. It is NOT the product of manipulation of oil supplies (Through it may include manipulation of oil PRICES), but the fact we are in a tight market for oil and no one has a plan to end that tight market. The best plan would be a plan to reduce usage, but that is unpopular for it requires the combination of increase in price (by increase oil taxes) to pay for alternatives to oil (i.e. more Light Rail Vehicles and LRV tracks and improved and expanded Amtrak). To "Drill" our way out is impossible, but popular for it has the support of big oil and requires no change in lifestyles of most Americans (At least on its surface, the fact that it will fail is NOT mentioned by the GOP).

This is a site From Krugman where he points out the lack of hoarding during the run up of prices in the Summer:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/more-on-oil-and-speculation/

Krugman in 2007 on the increase in the price of oil:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x147806
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3310463&mesg_id=3310490

Krugman on the break up of Iraq over its oil:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1813835

Other Krugman Article on the oil price surge and its causation:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1546698

Basically Krugman's position is the same as mine, we do NOT know why the price was going up in till August 2008, but we can find no evidence of anyone keeping oil off the market to push that price up (as what happened in 1979). Something else was driving that price increase, and I suspect is driving this price decrease. The driving force may be the result of manipulation but it is manipulation of price NOT actual oil production or supply. I suspect it is being done because it can be done with very little money given the tight supply of oil and as long as that is possible expect steady increase in price interrupted with steep declines. A stable price for oil is a thing of the past, and we will have to learn to live with that fact.

[UpInArms]

49. US RATE FUTURES-Bets on big Fed cut up on weak retail data (huh????)

what??? are they going to start paying folks to borrow money? when the fed rate is only 1.5% :wtf: are they going to "cut"?

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1529678620081015

CHICAGO, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Bets in the U.S. short-term interest rate futures market for another big Federal Reserve rate cut this month jumped on Wednesday, after September retail sales were reported weaker than expected.

The implied prospects for a half-point cut in the federal funds rate to 1 percent at the Fed's Oct 28-29 policy meeting rose to 20 percent from 10 percent just before the report. A rate cut to 1.25 percent is fully priced.

September retail sales fell by 1.2 percent against forecasts for a 0.7-percent drop, while sales excluding autos tumbled by 0.6 percent, double the expected drop.

[Dr.Phool]

67. All I can say is.....

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :scared: :nuke: :wow:

[Wednesdays]

149. Um...weak retail data? Do they really think a rate cut will help?

I mean, they've been cutting the rate all year, yet I haven't heard of any rate cuts on things like credit cards lately, have you? :shrug: Without some way of the rate cut reaching the consumer, there's no way to improve those retail numbers, am I right?

We're seeing the fallacy of the tinkle-down theory in action here.

[Festivito]

50. Debt: 10/10/2008 10,294,381,432,306.10 (UP 27,998,785,762.50) (Friday)

(Average for last 30 calendar days: 20,319,627,360.04. Average for last 22 reported days 27,708,582,763.70.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
6,024,947,413,171.24 + 4,269,434,019,134.87
UP 30,017,806,473.99 + DOWN2,019,020,711.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

HISTORICAL:
President's term ends/begins: Jan 20
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 BC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 BC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/10/2008 10,245,247,740,307.58 ** (UP 4,566,185,636,124.53 so far since Bush took office)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years.)
Borrowed in FY1993: (OLDER DATA IS MISSING)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 241,657,749,631.20 so far.

For a prettier and more explanitory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102&topic_id=3543379&mesg_id=3543431

[DemReadingDU]

55. double checking

10/10/08: 10,294,381,432,306.11
9/30/08: 10,024,724,896,912.49

difference: 269,656,535,393.62 (FY 2009)


10/10/08: 10,294,381,432,306.11
10/9/08: 10,266,382,646,543.62

difference: 27,998,785,772.49 (1 day)


Maybe we will see the 250 billion (for the banks) in the numbers for tomorrow?

[Festivito]

87. You are correct. I stand corrected. Thank you.

I had:
Borrowed in FY2009: 241,657,749,631.20 so far.

should be:
Borrowed in FY2009: 269,656,535,393.70 so far.

I will automate this process so that I cannot make this omission again.

I am grateful. Thank you.
--fes

[DemReadingDU]

92. You're welcome

I was thinking you had accidentally began with October 1.

Anyway, I never paid much attention to the horrendous growth of the National Debt until you started posting the numbers.

Where is all this money going? It's like a big black hole, never to be seen again. I can't see how this steadily increasing amount of debt can continue much longer. I'm flabbergasted, to say the least.

[Festivito]

126. I think it is heading to the Federal Reserve for distribution.

There was an article from several days ago that I attached to the usual debt post. It shows an astounding graph where the fed suddenly makes an unprecedented rise in holding. About 550B$ and close enough to the increase in debt over several days to make me think it so.

This would take dollars out of circulation and depress the value of things. Those holding dollars could then buy land and industries out from old owners at 10% of worth. DUer Icelander posted that Iceland in not in dire straits, and continues that UK and US people arrived trying to take over properties there at reduced prices. This was not confirmed by MSM.

Add that banks can choose to whom they borrow and refuse, you have opportunity. Given that Neil Bush who ignored government desist orders while working for Silverado S&L during the S&L crisis that alone took a billion of our tax dollars is now at 50+B$-Goldman Sachs, and you might find motive. Golden parachutes are nothing compared to the golden teat.

It does follow the Shock Doctrine and Money Masters conspiratorial viewpoints. So, take it with a grain of salt.

And also note that I'm just a guy in a podunky job, not an expert, not even educated in this field. Just two college classes from the ECON department that counted toward an engineering degree long ago.

EDIT: My error was to not update the FY to date from 10/9 to 10/10.

[DemReadingDU]

131. Opportunity

No kidding!

I did read the post by Icelander. It's really interesting what those opportunists are doing over there.

I found 2 Icelander postings

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4228257&mesg_id=4228673

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=4232646



I remember the graph where the Fed suddenly makes an unprecedented rise in holding. I was thinking that was money that was printed up that the FED was using to throw away to keep the economy from crashing. Maybe that rise is coming from the Treasury, our tax money.
:shrug:


edit: so you think the huge increases in the National Debt are 'loans' from the Treasury, being transferred to the FED, that the FED isn't printing?

[Festivito]

148. I don't know.

When Bush I left office, days before departure shredder trucks hit the White House around the clock.

We might never know.

[Festivito]

151. DU Link: to Social Security and Medicare funds were already plundered for war

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4241472&mesg_id=4241472

I assume this is the date used for the chart below:
End of Jan = Publically held + Intragovernmental (FICA) = total debt THAT day
01/31/2007 4,913,960,890,707.78 + 3,793,600,173,259.34 = 8,707,561,063,967.12

Notice this graph data is 618 days old. We have spent an extra reported $1,110,986,522,463.46 (1.1T$) since.

showing the debt as held by US and other countries:

[DemReadingDU]

154. We are so broke

:(
:evilfrown:
:mad:
:puke:
:wtf:
:scared:
:thumbsdown:
:cry:

[Festivito]

160. Debt: 10/14/2008 10,294,404,889,401.40 (UP 23,457,095.30) (up little)

(This report is now automated except for this text. Each week there seems one day with low or even negative increase in debt. Tomorrow should be interesting again.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,024,523,653,568.44 + 4,269,881,235,833.03
DOWN 423,759,602.80 + UP 447,216,698.16

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reported increases in debt is 29,099,320,821.72.
The average for the last 30 days would be 20,369,524,575.20.
The average for the last 32 days would be 19,096,429,289.25.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 9 reports in 14 days of FY2009 averaging 29.96B$ per report, 19.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 98 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.4 and 12.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/14/2008 10,294,404,889,401.40 GWB (UP 4,566,209,093,219.83 so far since Bush took office)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 269,679,992,489.00 so far.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3544932&mesg_id=3545237

TWO DAYS PRIOR:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3543379&mesg_id=3543431

[UpInArms]

52. 9:33 EST The Piehole openeth and the market falleth

Dow 9,134.01 176.98 (1.90%)
Nasdaq 1,744.46 34.55 (1.94%)
S&P 500 972.45 25.56 (2.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.066% 0.043

NYSE Volume 125,530,140.625
Nasdaq Volume 54,140,609.375

[UpInArms]

54. 9:41 EST Dow off 200+ points

Dow 9,097.14 213.85 (2.30%)
Nasdaq 1,737.04 41.97 (2.36%)
S&P 500 966.78 31.23 (3.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.069% 0.046

NYSE Volume 313,156,718.75
Nasdaq Volume 123,378,281.25

09:35 am : Stocks decline more than 2% on the open after economic concerns were exacerbated by a disappointing retail sales report.

Consumers continue to curtail spending in the face of economic headwinds. Retail sales in September tumbled 1.2% month-over-month, the third consecutive monthly drop and largest decline in three years. Economists forecast a smaller drop of 0.7%.

The Producer Price Index, an inflation reading, fell 0.4% in September, helped by easing commodity prices. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.4%.

The NY Empire Manufacturing Index, a regional manufacturing survey, declined 17.2 to -24.6 in October, which was worse than the expected reading of -10.0. This indicates manufacturing is contracting in the New York region. The index is at its lowest since data was first collected in July 2001.DJ30 -178.60 NASDAQ -32.55 SP500 -25.56

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -19.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.30.

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -25.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.80. Stocks futures trade near recently reached session lows. Charles Schwab (SCHW) reported better-than-expected earnings, as did regional bank bank Marshall & IIsley (MI). In overseas trading, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 5.0% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.1%. France's CAC is down 3.7%, Germany's DAX is down 3.6% and London's FTSE has fallen 4.3%.

I could have sworn that the powers that be said if we stuck all our fingers in the dike at once this would not happen - so the whole world pumped trillions of dollars into this sinking leaky boat and it is doing exactly what sinking leaky boats do - diving further and further into the abyss with no hope of any amount of money saving its sorry rusted hole-infested garbage scow hide

[ozymandius]

59. Oh man... I wish Shakespeare were not dead.

He would have a field day with this stuff. I'll guess he would amend his "kill all the lawyers" line to exempt people like Jonathan Turley. Instead, I'd wager, he would sue his venom upon those who both previously and presently reside in the Bush administration.

Possible titles: King George; The Merchant of Feces; Twelfth Blight; ?

[Hugin]

62. Not to mention...

McCain and Palin in the wings.

Now, there's a MacBeth aching to be written.

Don't give me any ideas, Ozy! HAHAHAHA!

Edit: Oops! I guess I should have called it The Scottish Play ;)

[ozymandius]

65. John Cleese on Sarah Palin: "Monty Python could have written this."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndE5gOngGeg

[Dr.Phool]

71. "Sorry Michael Palin. You're not the funniest Palin anymore".

[JNelson6563]

143. haha that was great!

:toast: Thanks for posting. It was perfect.

[ozymandius]

157. Cleese is a living British national treasure who "gets" American politics.

He gets it through his admission of not "getting it". Most people on this board wonder just the same how so many people can be willfully gullible.

[cosmicdot]

128. re 'the Scottish Play' .. cue Blackadder

and Rowan Atkinson ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7InTU4gA6U 1:41

[antigop]

77. A Midsummer's Nightmare? n/t

[UpInArms]

53. Stocks slump at the start as data spells likely recession (they just now noticed?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stocks-slump-start-data-spells/story.aspx?guid=%7BF897B9C6%2D051A%2D4992%2DAAC2%2DAEDDA0F160C8%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks dropped at the start on Wednesday after data underlined a recession is likely to come or is already under way, dispelling any optimism on better-than-forecast results from the Coca-Cola Co. (KO: 46.16, +2.43, +5.6%) , Intel Corp. (INTC: 16.05, +0.12, +0.8%) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: 41.07, +0.36, +0.9%) . The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: 9,152.01, -158.98, -1.7%) dropped 165.11 points to 9,145.88. The S&P 500 ($SPX: 973.96, -24.05, -2.4%) shed 23.43 points to 974.58, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP: 1,749.28, -29.73, -1.7%) fell 31.07 points to 1,747.94.

another clear case of the cheerleaders believing their own crap and refusing to allow the clarity of reality to be their guide

[AnneD]

121. I heard that this AM on NPR......

I couldn't believe...the schism between WS and MS now measures twice the size of the Grand Canyon. No wonder the markets cheer and stocks go up when folks are laid off. To folks that have never worked a day og labour in their life-workers are expenses instead of assets-it's what type of measuring stick do you use. Well try running this consumer economy with out consumers. This is the just the final outcome of their game. The economist they were talking to said he followed the jobs creation numbers and said that we had benn in a recession for over a year now and didn't think it would improve for a while. At least he realizes how important jobs are to middle class

[Dr.Phool]

138. That's a problem I had with my partner in the restaurant.

He's a good liberal, and progressive in every way. But, he's an engineer by training, and used to work in the space program. I come from a blue collar and labor background.

He was trying to figure out schedules and get the maximum potential out of our employees.

We had one kid, who was the highest paid employee there, and worth every cent and more. He did prep and grill work, and anything else that had to be done instinctively, without being asked. I told my partner to give this kid all the hours he wanted.

My partner cut his hours because he couldn't drive delivery in a pinch. He walked out.

[Wednesdays]

153. I wonder...

"He was trying to figure out schedules and get the maximum potential out of our employees."

IMO, that's the problem with a lot of workplaces...pressure to squeeze every last drop of effort out of the worker, to make them do as much as possible in the minimum amount of time. I often see workers who are constantly rushed and frazzled, in jobs where one couldn't stand for a few seconds to catch one's breath, even when exhausted.

So I wonder if, in certain jobs, there was a way for workers to be paid by-the-task, rather than hourly. That way, the worker can at his own pace, choose his own work hours, and there wouldn't be such a heavy emphasis on "efficiency."

I realize that employers can take advantage of per-task labor, potentially ripping off the worker and forcing him to work extra hours. In that case, I would expect labor laws to be even more stringent against employers and in favor of workers, than with the equivalent place of work that pays hourly.

Just a thought. :shrug:

If that's not realistic, then I would expect management to hire enough people to reduce employee stress. Life isn't always about the company's bottom line.

[CabalPowered]

58. Does anyone follow Sallie Mae?

I have some family members that are watching it like a hawk as they're concerned that SLM is at risk of failing in the next year. They're concerned this would have an immediate impact for higher-ed as private student loans would be hard to come by, which would lead to a significant drop in enrollment around the country. There's also the risk of rising defaults on student loans as the economy continues to implode, further weakening the balance sheet.

[ozymandius]

63. JC Flowers tried to buy a controlling stake last year.

Had JC Flowers succeeded - this GSE would have ceased to be a publicly traded company and would have lost much of its prestige as a lender that focuses on providing assistance to lower income students. This altruistic spirit unfortunately arose when NY Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, filed suit about their lending and debt collection practices.

I have found no hard data about their finance sheets. Sallie Mae has been under extreme financial pressure. Their stock price was among the first of many publicly traded financials to take a beating late last year.

I do know that, in an abstract sense, employment prospects are extremely difficult to locate now. Yesterday I spoke with someone who just finished college and is seeking a loan payment deferment because of her nonexistent job prospects. Case in point: lowered job prospects lead to lower returns on loan investments, especially when the gross jobs data falls painfully short of the birth/death numbers expressing the required number of jobs needed to keep pace with the expanding population.

Now, in terms of loans for new students, there are options that do not include applying at an institutional lender. Many states and municipalities offer tuition waivers for students who promise to teach for two years after graduation in an under-served area. Check locally if this is a concern for your family.

Perhaps more Marketeers can shed some light on the subject.

[CabalPowered]

69. Thanks Ozy

That's the problem I see, graduates with loads of debt coming into a weakening job market. As State budgets start to shrink next year, the problem could be compounded as low-income assistance is either held flat or decreased. I know Key bank recently pulled out of the student loan market as risks have risen but I haven't heard of any other institutions pulling out of student loans.

[Roland99]

64. DJIA just dipped to 8,995.

[Roland99]

72. Trigger buying (or faeries?) brought it up about 75 but back down to 8,9671 now

[AnneD]

78. Our theme today.......

Skating Away On The Thin Ice Of A New Day

Meanwhile back in the year One --- when you belonged to no-one ---
you didn't stand a chance son, if your pants were undone.
`Cause you were bred for humanity and sold to society ---
one day you'll wake up in the Present Day ---
a million generations removed from expectations
of being who you really want to be.

Skating away ---
skating away ---
skating away on the thin ice of the New Day.

So as you push off from the shore,
won't you turn your head once more --- and make your peace with everyone?
For those who choose to stay,
will live just one more day ---
to do the things they should have done.
And as you cross the wilderness, spinning in your emptiness:
you feel you have to pray.
Looking for a sign
that the Universal Mind (!) has written you into the Passion Play.

Skating away on the thin ice of the New Day.

And as you cross the circle line, the ice-wall creaks behind ---
you're a rabbit on the run.
And the silver splinters fly in the corner of your eye ---
shining in the setting sun.
Well, do you ever get the feeling that the story's
too damn real and in the present tense?
Or that everybody's on the stage, and it seems like
you're the only person sitting in the audience?

Skating away on the thin ice of the New Day.


http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/jethrotull/skatingawayonthethiniceofthenewday.html

[Crowman1979]

68. I sensed there was a suckers market going on this week.

Any people out here feel the same way here?

[Dr.Phool]

73. Nah, we're the Optimist's Society.

[Roland99]

74. NEWS ALERT: CNBC reporting V.P. Cheney taken to hospital for a procedure (irregular heartbeat)

Pacemaker probs?

[Dr.Phool]

75. More lies and propaganda.

Cheney has no heart.

[Demeter]

159. They've Got to Administer a Shock--It Evidently Started Beating

[ozymandius]

76. Remember that last photo of Cheney posted here?

He looked horrible. My quip was that he was preemptively embalmed.

Honestly, without sarcasm, I think Cheney will not last but a few more months. His visits to the hospital are too frequent and his public appearances are pretty much nil. Photographs of him show a human body wasting away.

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

79. I'm going to wish him well

though I hate him and everything he stands for with a smoldering passion that burns hotter than the sun, I wish him well. Both because I (kind of) believe in karma and because I want to be a better person than he is.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

83. I will not wish him evil. That is the best I can do.

And since I doubt he will become a better person, I want him to survive to stand trial for all the evil he has done here on earth

[spotbird]

86. Our wishes, one way or the other,

will have no impact on his health, for that he should be grateful.

[TalkingDog]

132. As I explained to someone re: the Death Penalty

Vengeance comes from the heart, Justice comes from the head.

I understand the desire to cause pain to someone who has been instrumental in causing me pain. That impulse springs from my hurt, from my passion, from my heart.

I also understand why we must not allow the heart to rule if we desire true justice. Justice must not be swayed by personal feelings; by favor nor disgust. Justice must be examined, weighed and meted out so that punishment and reward are fair to all involved. Even against the wishes of our hearts.


So while my heart wishes him an equal measure of pain. My head hopes for true justice.

[ozymandius]

89. I hope his health is not as severe as suspected.

Because I want him to stand trial for what he's done. I try to be dispassionate most of the time about discussions here, preferring for figures and facts to speak for themselves. But not with Cheney.

I have never absolutely, virulently, hated an individual with the possible exception of Bush. Malicious. Unworthy of reaping any prestige and tangible benefit from their cancerous existence.

I am a better person than Cheney. That fact does not change when expressing my wish for justice to be brought upon him. And televised.

Let's see... do I really want to hit that 'post message' button?

Seems that I do.

[Dr.Phool]

94. I have some very strong mixed feelings about his illness.

Especially, when you figure that the chances of him standing trial anywhere, are pretty much zilch.

I'll leave it right there.

[ozymandius]

96. I infer your perspective.

99% of the time it takes crimes on par with Pinochet's to bring a sick old man to trial. We aren't Chile.

[DemReadingDU]

95. My sentiments too

Let's throw in Rove too, all those evildoers of this administration, seen and unseen!


But I wonder if Cheney looks so bad, maybe he is aware of an especially horrible October surprise soon to be coming?

[Robbien]

98. I just hope that this puts him out of commission for about three months

Since his pet project this last year in office has been the environment, the earth needs the reprieve.

Three months from now he can go back to his normal healthy status and hopefully our DoJ will also recover some state of healthy status. Then we can get out the popcorn.

[MsLeopard]

100. I try to get around the karma thing

by wishing that he gets "exactly what he deserves."

[AnneD]

111. I like to ask...

God to take care of the situation.That always gets interesting results. But remember, evil makes way for the good sometimes.

[54anickel]

112. Looks a bit pale in this photo from yesterday, but all smiles

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/15/dick-cheney-heart-condition

Dick Cheney was forced to cancel a fundraiser in Illinois today after his abnormal heart rhythm flared up, forcing the US vice-president to stay in Washington for a short hospital procedure.

Doctors discovered atrial fibrillation, an abnormal rhythm in the heart's upper chambers, during a routine visit with Cheney this morning, his press secretary told reporters. His campaign trip was then cancelled to ensure that his normal rhythm could be restored without an overnight hospital stay.

The vice-president, 65, suffered his first heart attack in 1978 and had a defibrillator device installed in his chest in 2001. His heart condition has become a favourite punch line of late-night comics in the US, but more than 2 million Americans join Cheney in experiencing periodic bouts of atrial fibrillation, according to the American Heart Association.

Cheney was scheduled to appear at a $500-per-plate private dinner for Martin Ozinga, the Republican candidate for Congress in the southern suburbs of Chicago. Debbie Halvorson, the Democratic candidate, had sought to use Cheney's visit to condemn Ozinga as beholden to the Bush administration

more...

[spotbird]

118. Look at the color of his hand

maybe it's just my monitor, but it looks bluish.

[TalkingDog]

140. nope, reduced oxygen flow to extremeties

congestive heart problems definitely

[bread_and_roses]

144. The morgul-blade has nearly pierced his hollow center - he's entering the Shadow

World. (It's taken this long because the Blade fragment has been wandering all over his body looking for a heart.)

[Neshanic]

82. CNBC breaking news. People woried about economy don't buy stuff. Yale economists to do study.

Perplexed and with tilted heads, they are amazed that people are not buying things!

How could this be?

[Dr.Phool]

91. And it took a gaggle of Yale economists to figure that out.

You watch. Now they're going to try to repossess Krugman's Nobel.

[ozymandius]

93. Maybe they should read Nobel laureate Paul Krugman's research.

What is currency in trade? How is equilibrium established?

Macroeconomics rules!

[TalkingDog]

156. Whaaaat? Why, that's unpossible!

[antigop]

84. Carlyle sees great opportunity to invest in banks (SURPRISE!)

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081015/REG/810159991/1036

Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said on Wednesday that he saw great opportunity to invest in financial assets affected by the credit crunch, and said the U.S. government’s actions could help free up availability of leveraged buyout debt in the coming months.

Private equity firms have been hammered by the lack of availability of financing for leveraged buyout deals and have largely been waiting on the sidelines for debt markets to return to some normality.

Governments around the world have been trying to restore confidence in the battered banking system and markets. The United States said on Tuesday it was injecting $250 billion into U.S. banks to keep fear from swamping the U.S. economy.

Mr. Rubenstein said on the sidelines of the Super Return private equity conference in Dubai that the U.S. government’s actions to boost liquidity in the system could have the affect of freeing up leveraged buyout debt, but stressed it was too early to really know the impact.

The Super Return private equity conference in Dubai?

[grasswire]

127. this should be its own thread

Lots of people would be interested.

[antigop]

85. Bulk of U.S.companies pay no taxes: GAO

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081015/REG/810159997/1036

Most U.S. and foreign corporations doing business in the United States avoid paying any federal income taxes, despite trillions of dollars worth of sales, a government study released on Tuesday said.

The Government Accountability Office said 72% of all foreign corporations and about 57% of U.S. companies doing business in the United States paid no federal income taxes for at least one year between 1998 and 2005.

More than half of foreign companies and about 42% of U.S. companies paid no U.S. income taxes for two or more years in that period, the report said.

During that time corporate sales in the United States totaled $2.5 trillion, according to Democratic Sens. Carl Levin of Michigan and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, who requested the GAO study.

The report did not name any companies. The GAO said corporations escaped paying federal income taxes for a variety of reasons including operating losses, tax credits and an ability to use transactions within the company to shift income to low tax countries.

[Roland99]

88. It's that last one that's a doozy, I bet.

Wonder how much that wouldhave changed had Kerry won in 2004.

[antigop]

97. According to wikipedia, Paulson was an assistant to John Erlichman 1972-1973

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Paulson

Paulson was Staff Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Defense at The Pentagon from 1970 to 1972.<7> He then worked for the administration of U.S. President Richard Nixon, serving as assistant to John Ehrlichman from 1972 to 1973, during the events of the Watergate scandal for which Ehrlichman was convicted to a prison sentence.

Krugman mentioned this info on his website today.

[ozymandius]

99. How about that? Another veteran of the Nixon administration at our service.

I wonder: have Bush/Cheney not hired anyone still living from the Nixon and Reagan administrations?

[Dr.Phool]

104. John Dean?

:rofl:

[ozymandius]

107. Not a chance. His soul has been to the cleaners.

:rofl:

[Dr.Phool]

108. I think Gordon Liddy is still available.

However, he's probably too crazy for even these people. Maybe.

[antigop]

106. Yeah, how about that? I didn't know that. n/t

[Neshanic]

101. Ugh, just when you think it could not get more repulsive.

[fascisthunter]

102. Gee... what a coincidence

[grasswire]

125. gahhhhhhhhhh!

This needs to be its own thread. Disgusting, disgusting, disgusting!!

Americans don't know this.

[librechik]

137. Nazis like that don't go away

they merely change bureaus (apparently)

[Dr.Phool]

103. It looks like Europe is giving back all of it's dead cat bounce.

DAX and FTSE both down more than 7% at 11:45.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

[ozymandius]

105. And at 11:49 in the U.S.

Dow 8,963.57 Down 347.42 (3.73%)
Nasdaq 1,718.43 Down 60.58 (3.41%)
S&P 500 954.28 Down 43.73 (4.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.062% Up 0.039
NYSE Volume 2,337,675,750
Nasdaq Volume 877,810,125

11:30 am : A recovery attempt is met with selling pressure, sending the major indices to session lows. The S&P 500 is down 5.0% as the energy sector tumbles 10.0% and the materials sector falls 7.4%

The dollar is up 0.5% as it rallies 2.1% against the Canadian dollar and 2.5% against the Swedish Krona.

DJ30 -387.42 NASDAQ -63.23 SP500 -49.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 526/790 mln/2034 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 299/467 mln/2753

11:00 am : The S&P 500 falls to a loss of more than 4%. Weakness is broad-based.

Within the S&P 500, only 25 stocks are in positive territory. By percent gain, the best-performing component is Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK 17.25, +1.18), +7.6%. The savings and loans firm reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

By percent loss, the worst performing component is Jones Apparel Group (JNY 10.04, -3.48), -25.7%. The retailer, which owns brands such as Nine West, cut its full year earnings outlook well below the consensus estimate.DJ30 -362.00 NASDAQ -59.57 SP500 -46.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 513/641 mln/1970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 313/378 mln/2694

[Hugin]

110. I'm guessing that 'Trickle Down Socialism' is a wash then?

Someday... Someday... I'm hoping we can get past the whole 'Trickle Down' concept and get back to where a
focus is on the people who make up the foundation of the fiscal pyramid.

Think it'll happen in my lifetime or is the Chicago School 'Shrugger' Seed planted too deeply in the
psyche of American Business?

[ozymandius]

113. S&P 500 is hurting the most.

12:15

Dow 8,989.45 Down 321.54 (3.45%)
Nasdaq 1,720.72 Down 58.29 (3.28%)
S&P 500 955.81 Down 42.20 (4.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.077% Up 0.054
NYSE Volume 2,589,978,000
Nasdaq Volume 965,227,625

12:00 pm : Stocks are down more than 4% at midday after a weak retail sales report added to overall economic worries.

Consumers continue to curtail spending in the face of economic headwinds. Retail sales in September tumbled 1.2% month-over-month, the third consecutive monthly drop and largest decline in three years. The decrease was larger than the expected drop of 0.7%. Sales are down 1.0% compared to last year, marking the first year-over-year decline since October 2002.

The disappointing data prompted a broad-based decline in the stock market, as all ten sectors post a loss at midday.

The energy sector (-9.5%) is the main laggard in conjunction with a retreat in energy prices. Crude oil prices are down 4.2% to $75.38, which is the lowest level in more than a year.

The tech sector (-2.9%) is outperforming on a relative basis thanks to a better-than-expected 13% year-over-year third quarter earnings per growth at Intel (INTC 16.21, +0.21). On a similar note, the defensive-oriented consumer staples sector (-2.2%) is outperforming on a relative basis after Coca-Cola (KO 45.90, +2.20) posted 17% third quarter earnings per share growth that topped estimates.

In other earnings news, Abbott Labs (ABT 54.83, +0.05), CSX (CSX 43.68, -4.46) and State Street (STT 49.82, -6.87) all posted quarterly earnings growth that topped expectations.

Charles Schwab (SCHW 20.68, -0.27), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.58, +0.13), Marshall & IIsley (MI 18.23, -0.77) and Wells Fargo (WFC 34.72, +1.20) saw earnings per share slip, but managed to exceed Wall Street's forecast.

Genentech's (DNA 83.19, +4.07) profit growth fell short of estimates and Delta Airlines (DAL 7.83, +0.48) swung to an unexpected loss.

Although the retail sales data garnered most of the market's attention, there were several other economic reports.

According to a regional survey, manufacturing in the New York region contracted by the most since 2001, which is as far as the survey's data go back. The NY Empire Manufacturing Index declined 17.2 to -24.6 in October, which was worse than the expected reading of -10.0.

The Producer Price Index, an inflation reading, fell 0.4% in September, helped by easing commodity prices. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.4%.

Business inventories in August rose by 0.3%, which was slightly less then the expected growth of 0.5%. Inventory levels rose by 0.6% in manufacturing, 0.8% in wholesalers and declined 0.6% in retail. Inventories are up 6.4% year-over-year. The data are adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is set to speak at the Economic Club of New York in about 15 minutes.DJ30 -328.07 NASDAQ -57.75 SP500 -42.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 542/911 mln/2053 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 333/537 mln/2729

[nolabels]

119. PPT must of went to lunch

DOW hovering around 8,934.81 -376.18 (-4.04%)

[JNelson6563]

116. Going down pretty steadily too.

I feel sorry for anyone who truly believed the "rally" had any kind of staying power. It took a long time to get to the precipice we are on, we won't be arriving at safety anytime soon. Very arduous path ahead.

Julie

[Roland99]

115. Bernanke enjoying hearing himself speak

Won't stand down until prosperity is restored

Trust must be restored

All the tools are there

Gov't assistance only with great reluctance (Ha!)

[Roland99]

120. BTW, DJIA dropped about 50 as he started...recovered and holding now

[tom_paine]

117. Cue 30s music....................LET'S MIS-BEEEEEEEEE-HAAAAVVEEEEEE!

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/cole_porter/lets_misbehave-lyrics-225788.html

You could have a great career,
And you should;
Yes you should.
Only one thing stops you dear:
You're too good;
Way too good!

If you want a future, darlin',
Why don't you get a past?
'Cause that fateful moment's comin' at last...

We're all alone, no chaperone
Can get our number
The world's in slumber--let's misbehave!!!

There's something wild about you child
That's so contagious
Let's be outrageous--let's misbehave!!!

When Adam won Eve's hand
He wouldn't stand for teasin'.
He didn't care about those apples out of season.

They say that Spring means just one little thing to little lovebirds
We're not above birds--let's misbehave!!!

It's getting late and while I wait
My poor heart aches on
Why keep the breaks on? Let's misbehave!!!

I feel quite sure affaire d'amour
Would be attractive
While we're still active, let's misbehave!

You know my heart is true
And you say you for me care...
Somebody's sure to tell,
But what the heck do we care?

They say that bears have love affairs
And even camels
We're men and mammals--let's misbehave!!!

[Robbien]

123. Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st?

The financial crisis is not over. If things were back to normal, banks would be lending to each other and to businesses and individuals. But measures of bank lending risk suggest fear is 12 times as high as it would be in normal times. The reason? Banks know more than you do about what's wrong. And they're not talking about it because they don't want you to withdraw your deposits and sell your stock. What they know is that on October 21st, some of the biggest players on Wall Street could be required to come up with $400 billion that some may not be able to pay.

Last month, the White House decided that we could afford to let Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. That proved to be an enormous mistake. It triggered a run on money market funds because one of the oldest such funds, Reserve Primary, broke the buck since it held Lehman Brothers paper. The U.S. responded with a $50 billion guarantee of money market funds. But the biggest consequence of that mistake is in the $54.6 trillion market for Credit Default Swaps (CDSs).

A CDS is like selling insurance on your car to hundreds of people who don't own it -- yet if your car goes up in flames each of those people collects the full value of your car. More specifically, CDSs are insurance against a bond or loan default. Why are CDSs so dangerous? Three reasons: a CDS seller does not need to put any capital aside to cover losses if the security defaults, the buyer doesn't need to own the asset it wants to protect, and there is no central place where information about all these CDS deals is collected and updated.

. . .

Fear of what will happen on October 21st is keeping the credit markets frozen.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/15/will-lehman-bankruptcy-drop-400-billion-shoe-on-october-21st/print/

Of course CNBC and all politicos are silent on this.

[nolabels]

130. Deutsche Bank Sold Massive Amounts of Phantom Stock

Wow, this sounds like the clash of titans. I don't know if this connected but it seems that kind of insurance on naked short selling. It even seems it would be kind of a protection racket for naked short selling which seems to be the other side of the coin. These people waiting for Oct 21 are waiting to see if dam holds. The big banks know those CDS will never get paid, the protection is to say government is at fault, they should have been regulating it and they should be the ones to fix it. Then the war will be on

The web seems have been unwoven in the financial world


Deutsche Bank Sold Massive Amounts of Phantom Stock
October 14th, 2008 by Mark Mitchell

A couple of days before Lehman fell and all hell broke loose on Wall Street, Floyd Norris, the chief business correspondent of The New York Times, published a blog (headline: “Short Sale Conspiracies”) wherein he implied that I was mentally insane for suggesting that Deutsche Bank Securities had been caught selling “massive amounts of phantom stock.”

I promise to take this up with my psychiatrist, but first let me tell you a bit more about the peculiar case that led the New York Stock Exchange to hand Deutsche Bank Securities the largest fine in history for violations of SEC rules designed to prevent the creation of what the chairman of the SEC has called “phantom stock.”

The NYSE’s disciplinary order states that Deutsche Bank’s traders “effected an unquantified but significant number of short sales…without having borrowed the securities.” Indeed, the traders sold the shares “without having any reasonable grounds to believe that the securities could be borrowed for delivery when due…”
(snip)
http://www.deepcapture.com/

[specimenfred1984]

129. Where are the greedy "bargain hunters" today? LOL at their stupidity

It doesn't matter what political party anyone is in, there's always some selfish asshat proudly exclaiming what a great f-ing deal they just got because all the "doom and gloomers" over reacted like some emotionally unstable retard.

You can ask the person, like I did, why they see things the way they do but you'll never get an answer. America is full of brainwashed, dumbed-down fucktwits.

[natrat]

133. bargain hunting good on long slow bottoms; not spikes-plenty of time to buy in the future

[radfringe]

135. caution: smart ass humor ahead

It's not bargain hunters - it's librul demon-crats who are in the tank for Obama, they are sinking the economy on purpose to make mccain look bad and be made to talk about the economy at the debate tonight...

[ozymandius]

142. Is there a happy, confident soul among the S&P traders today? nt

[Dr.Phool]

134. Market has the hiccups and hicdowns.

-330 something
-500 something
-400 something
-493 NOW.

Hic!

[ozymandius]

139. Dow down about 500 now.

1:58
Dow 8,801.32 Down 509.67 (5.47%)
Nasdaq 1,679.07 Down 99.94 (5.62%)
S&P 500 933.61 Down 64.40 (6.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.003% Down 0.02
NYSE Volume 3,729,829,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,420,621,875

[Dr.Phool]

141. Clue of the week headline banner at MSRNC.

"Dow down about 500 on recession concerns"!

Do you think we'll have one? You betcha!

Dow 8783.... -527 2:00pm.

[Karenina]

158. What's DOW got to do with it (gotta do with it)?

What's DOW but a second-hand emotion...

[ozymandius]

145. 2:06et - S&P is getting smashed.

Dow 8,789.93 Down 521.06 (5.60%)
Nasdaq 1,674.35 Down 104.66 (5.88%)
S&P 500 929.04 Down 68.97 (6.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.019% Down 0.004
NYSE Volume 3,874,088,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,477,803,375

2:00 pm : Losses remain heavy in the major indices. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have all fallen another leg lower to new session lows.

Market breadth remains bearish. 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 are trading with losses, while 29 of the 30 Dow components are in the red.

Coca-Cola (KO 45.06, +1.33) is the only Dow component making gains. Coke announced this morning upbeat earnings per share results for its latest quarter. It was the eighth straight quarter in which Coke logged double-digit earnings per share growth, and at least as many in which the results surpassed the consensus estimate.

Just hitting the wires, the Fed's Beige Book indicated a weakening of economic activity across all 12 districts.DJ30 -508.87 NASDAQ -102.84 SP500 -66.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 421/1.44 bln/2287 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 350/822 mln/2793

1:30 pm : The stock market slides to a fresh session low. The S&P 500 is down more than 5%, but is still up 4.9% this week thanks to the 11.6% surge on Monday.

The recent downturn has been broad-based and there does not appear to be a specific catalyst for the decline.

Meanwhile, buying interest picks up in Treasuries and the dollar (+0.9%).

The Brazilian Bovespa stock market tumbled to a 10% loss, prompting a halt in trading.

DJ30 -429.78 NASDAQ -82.91 SP500 -55.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 461/1.25 bln/2227 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 380/726 mln/2742

[ozymandius]

146. NEW THREAD HERE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3545739