Islanders who insisted on staying died in Ike

[Nambe]

Source: Associated Press

The final hours brought the awful realization to victims of Hurricane Ike that they had waited too long. This storm wasn't like the others, the ones that left nothing worse than a harrowing tale to tell. ...

... The dead - as young as 4, as old as 79 - included lifelong Galvestonians firmly rooted on the island and transplants drawn by the quiet of coastal living.

Seven people drowned in a storm surge that moved in earlier and with more ferocity than expected. Nine others died in the grimy, sweaty aftermath, when lack of power and medicine exacted its toll. Eleven people were poisoned by carbon monoxide or killed in fires from the generators they used in their own attempts to survive.

Hundreds of people remain missing three weeks after Ike's assault on Texas. Local and city officials are no longer keeping their own count of missing residents, and the estimate varies wildly from one agency to another. ...

Read more: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IKE_LIVES_LOST?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=US

[renate]

1. I saw a list of people who were missing

It broke my heart to see so many children on the list. It wasn't their choice to stay--they were absolutely helpless. I can't imagine what kind of parent would put a higher priority on staying to guard some possessions than on their children's safety.

(If any of the adults were physically or financially unable to leave, that's different, of course. Although I'd still think they could have asked any neighbors who were leaving to take the children to safety.)

I feel bad for the parents--if they'd known what was going to happen, they'd have chosen differently, and if they're still alive they're paying a higher price for their choice than death would have been. But still... how could they have voluntarily taken a chance with their children's lives? I don't understand. :cry:

[kickysnana]

3. They thought they could leave in the morning but the storm moved in quicker than predicted.

and the bridge access washed out, the ferry had stopped running the night before and they were trapped. There may not have been enough money for gas to get far enough away so they waited until they were sure that the storm had not turned by then it was too late.

They interviewed a tow truck driver who was trapped during the storm. He usually got out with the last law enforcement because he stayed to make sure everyone who wanted to get out could, but again it came in earlier than predicted and the bridge access had washed out.

[uppityperson]

2. k&r with thanks. I searched and was going to post this earlier, decided I've been posting

this stuff too much, and am glad you posted it.

[KoKo]

4. Ahh, yes...just like those in Katrina..."they insisted on staying" and deserved to die.

It's a hard call. Many of them might have been fundie Christians who thought Jesus would save them or allow them to die as he saw fit. Others couldn't get out because they were "saving others" and the storm winds came up to fast for them to get out.

We will never know as they "washed out to sea." It's different from Katrina in many ways ...but those of us who live close to the SEA should take heed. We will be next in one way or the other...whether we choose to stay or leave...those ice banks on our Earth Poles are melting...and it's going to change our USA weather, forever. This is just the "Canary Singing" and it will get worse.

[Baby Snooks]

7. An unusual canary

It was an unusual storm. In size but also that odd band in the northeastern quadrant. It was like it was a separate hurricane.

Supposedly we are in for a wild winter. Wild and wet as a result of all the icemelt in the Artic regions mixing with water picked up over the Great Lakes. Nice ice storms which snap power lines just like hurricane winds do. Mother Earth will adjust to protect itself and its balance. We will not matter much to Mother Earth. But then for most of the past 150 years, as we burned coal and then oil and gas and then assumed that the wind would just make all the pollution disappear, Mother Earth did not matter to us. So why would we matter?

[KoKo]

14. Agree with what you say...

It's Metaphysical..but to my humble thinking...an important point to make...given the times we live in.

For the Future...It's what we make of it...given all the pitfalls.

[Butch350]

17. Correct! Mother nature must maintain Equalibrium

[MellowDem]

35. Bad understanding of "Mother nature"

See what is going on right now? It is perfectly natural. When humans clear-cut forests, blow up mountains for coal, etc., all that is perfectly natural. The term Man-Made is always wrong. Everything is natural. It was through nature that humans evolved to the point we have. We have the capability to do what we do because of that. Nature is never not in equilibrium. If a Meteor hits the Earth and destroys all living life on it, nature is still perfectly in balance. It is quite natural for there to be mass extinctions or for whole planets to die. In fact, there is no such thing as something being unnatural. If a species advances so rapidly in evolving that it is able to multiply to the point of threatening its own extinction as well as many other species, that is perfectly natural.

[elocs]

26. It is not about deserving to die, but about choices and consequences.

When people had a choice and made a bad choices, they suffered the consequences. It does not mean they deserved to die. It's unfortunate that some valued things over life.

[AnneD]

28. It was a cat 2 hurricane....

with a cat 4 surge. It took every one by surprise. The eye didn't make landfall until 3AM on saturday morning but those that were still there at 6 pm on Friday were doomed. This tells me that we need a better way to measure the surge. We were told to shelter in place but honestly, I may not do that again if we have another one like Ike. I may be getting the hell out of Dodge, even if they tell us it is ok to stay.

[Ghost Dog]

30. Yes, you need a way to emphasise the power of the surge,

eg. on a separate (logarithmic) scale of 1 to 5 or 1 to 10... Symbols the media can use and everybody can easily understand.

My brother, who's a lifelong ocean-crossing yachtsman and wooden yacht restorer, has always said: if I'm way out in the deep ocean, I want to know what the wind is doing. If I'm on the coast, I don't care about the wind: I need to know what the water is doing; how bad the surge will be, how much damage it will do.

"Freak" waves, of course, can hit you in any place at any time.

[AnneD]

33. That is true....

once the wind makes land fall-it looses it's punch-but the surge is something else.

[Baby Snooks]

5. Not-so-mandatory evacuation

A mandatory evacuation in Texas is really not-so-mandatory but should be. And the children who died are the best reason why it should be. People who remain on a coastline after a mandatory evacuation has been called are simply not rational. If a civil order cannot be executed on them, a mental health order should be.

Everyone was warned about the storm surge being a Category 4 storm surge. Ike was a very unusual storm. The central winds were never measured at levels higher than winds associated with a Category 2 storm and yet in one band in the northeast quadrant, the most dangerous quadrant and the quadrant that produces the storm surge, winds were consistently measured at levels associated with a Category 4 storm which meant a storm surge of between 15 - 20 feet according to some predictions which were made two days before landfall. For some reason no one caught that and only heard it was a Category 2 storm. And so they didn't worry. Until the tides started rising and then suddenly the wall of water came in. At an average of 20 feet in most places. There was little rain in Houston prior to the storm. The surge came up the Ship Channel and effectively caused three bayous to back up.

Storm surges are also really not that predictable. I remember reading a story years ago about how people decided to ride out Camille because the storm surge was supposed to be between 15 and 20 feet and they didn't realize it could be much higher. It was 32 feet in some places. Some were in structures that might have survived the winds and a storm surge of 20 feet. But not 32 feet. I forget the average velocity but that wall of water is traveling at speed relative to the wind pushing it. They expected Camille to weaken and instead she strenghthened as she approached land and the storm surge was completely unexpected. Just the same, the coastline is not the place to be in a hurricane. Any hurricane.

It makes me sad to think about children being swept away in a storm surge. I would wonder if it makes our governor sad. Probably not. An actual mandatory evacuation of course would be an affront to "manly" Texans like him although there is nothing "manly" about allowing your children to be swept away in a storm surge. Or allowing anyone's children to be swept away in a storm surge. But then this is Texas. Where it's every man, and child, for himself. Even in hurricanes.

[malaise]

8. Remember mandatory evacuations began from Corpus Christi side

The storm wobbled. People who tried to leave Bolivar could not leave because of the surge of water from early Friday morning. Many were rescued trying to leave and others didn't leave because they could not.

[tclambert]

25. Not sure what the legalities are.

If someone refuses to evacuate, do you force them out at gunpoint? If you do, what happens afterward? Hurricane Rita in '05 threatened the Galveston area as well, but veered more northwards. If the Texas National Guard had frogmarched everyone off of Galveston island then, what kind of lawsuits would have resulted from it?

As a practical matter, it's hard to see any law enforcement offices or national guardsmen willing to threaten to shoot people if they don't leave their own homes.

[Hun Joro]

6. The choice to stay or leave isn't that simple.

Those of us who live in hurricane-prone areas are sometimes threatened with storms many times in a season. People leave their homes and the storm makes a last-minute change in course, missing that area completely or having little impact. It costs money to evacuate - money for gas, lodging, and food. All my family lives near the coast, so I can't really go bunk with relatives outside a storm area. You might spend a couple hundred dollars evacuating for a storm that never hits, and with money being extremely tight for many of us - me, anyway - when another storm threatens in a couple of weeks or so it might be impossible to go. I know, in some places there were buses, but they wouldn't have taken my cats and large dog and if I go, they go. It isn't as simple as some seem to think. My family was lucky. Originally Ike was predicted to hit our area directly. It didn't, but there was still plenty of damage and I know people around here who still don't have electricity. Or are rebuilding their homes and fortunate to have the resources to do so.

I ache for Galveston...it was the playground of my childhood.

[Baby Snooks]

10. And next time you may not be lucky

I know someone who left behind five horses. The five horses are gone. The two children and husband who originally insisted on staying to protect the horses are not. He changed his mind when she pointed out they could get hit with a 20 foot storm surge if the storm moved inland to the west of Galveston. It moved inland over Galveston. But their property inland off West Bay was still overcome by the storm surge and hit with high winds. They have been known to change direction when they are five miles off the coast. Suddenly they will go east or west instead of northeast or northwest or even north.

Anyone who stays behind after a mandatory evacuation has been ordered is not rational. Even if they have to leave three times in one month. What happened on Bolivar Peninsula is absolute proof that you do not stay behind. You leave when you are told to leave.

I have no idea what I would do with my cats in such a situation but if I were told I had to evacuate and I could not take them with me I would leave them behind but then honestly I would have already evacuated on my own. Because of my cats. So I could take them with me.

We make really rough decisions in life. It is just part of life.

[Hun Joro]

12. Gosh. Thanks for determining who is and isn't rational.

I'm glad you know so well what's right and what's feasible for everyone.

[kdmorris]

20. "I would have already evacuated on my own"

Therein lies the problem. You have the means to do so. What about the people who do not have the means to do so, where buses are not provided.

Sorry, but it's really not as black and white as you paint it. Anyone who had the money and means most likely evacuated. Those who did not have the money or means... the choices become extremely hard.

I have the money, means and motivation to get the hell out of here should I ever be told to (and even if I wasn't and felt it necessary). But that doesn't mean that I don't understand how hard such a choice might be for someone who doesn't.

[LisaL]

24. Means, reliable transportation, etc.

Some elderly, and some even not elderly, might not be able to drive, or have no car.

[GETPLANING]

9. Many of the people who stayed were stranded by rising tide...

and were unable to leave.

Bring up a Google Map of Bolivar Peninsula, TX before reading the rest of this post.

Highway 87 runs the length of Bolivar. At the West end, there is a ferry connecting Bolivar to Galveston Island. At the East end, Highway 87 runs across very low land before turning North. As Hurricane Ike approached, it's immense size created a huge flood tide that arrived much earlier than storm tides from previous storms. THE DAY BEFORE the hurricane was even felt in a change in the wind, the high tide forced the ferries to stop running because they were now too high for the ferry landings, and Highway 87 flooded at the East end. People who waited or took too long to pack up and move were now stuck. The article in the link refers to Galveston, but the real tragedy is Bolivar, where hundreds of people are missing.
Bolivar Peninsula is now two islands. The hurricane washed out the two narrow areas once known as Crystal Beach and Gilchrist. Youtube has some very sobering video taken by Coast Guard and National Guard choppers that flew in as soon as the wind fell back below 50 knots.

[RollWithIt]

13. Those "missing" people were eaten......

It's more than water that gets washed inland, it's predators. Fish schools mostly.

[Baby Snooks]

16. The art of hurricane prediction...

In the past few years, the average of successful prediction has been 100% and most people knew by Monday that Ike would strike in the Galveston area with a slight chance of it hitting to the east or the west and so everyone on Bolivar knew they risked being trapped on the island. Some were trapped. Some were just the adventurous types. The "manly" types. All should have evacuated before the evacuation was even called for. Everyone was warned these increased tides would come in two possibly three days before the hurricane made landfall because of the size of the storm and that very unusual northeast quadrant.

Time for people to accept that the Texas Gulf Coast may become "hurricane alley" along with Louisiana and that hurricanes are far more dangerous now than they were years ago before the Texas Gulf Coast boomed and we had gridlock on our freeways and before subsidence caused huge areas along Galveston Bay to become more susceptible to flooding from the initial increased tides as a storm begins to move closer.

[kdmorris]

21. "the average of successful prediction has been 100%"

Um, no it hasn't. They get within 300 miles of the predicted path most of the time, but if you had seen the models from Ike, you would know that this is just not true. There is a reason that people are told to not look at the line in the center of a predicted landfall cone.

Since you've hidden your profile, I have to assume that you don't actually live in a hurricane zone. Because the week before Ike hit, it's was 100% guaranteed to hit Southeast Florida as a CAT4. But it didn't. It turned south.

[LisaL]

23. For the long time the prediction was Ike is going toward Corpus

Christi.
So the 100 % accuracy rate is obviously bullshit.

[Jamastiene]

31. Exactly.

Any of us who live in a hurricane prone area know that you cannot predict what they will do with any certainty whatsoever. It is not that accurate and it is not that cut and dried.

A hurricane may get close to making landfall as a much weaker tropical depression, then turn back out to sea and get fed by warmer air. Then they can come back even stronger as a full blown hurricane in a different location entirely.

Until a hurricane actually gets pretty close to hitting landfall and the weather temperatures and barometer levels are just right, you cannot really predict much of anything except that they are out there and might make landfall anywhere at anytime.

You never know what to expect with those things. That's why they call it "weather prediction."

[RollWithIt]

11. I can't remember his name, but there was a DU'er on Galviston Island who was gonna stay....

The night before, he posted about staying. Hundreds of replies came in basically tearing him a new one for being so stupid. Towards the end of the thread he said he was getting out. Not sure if he would have actually died, but as a Florida resident used to big hurricanes I was surprised anyone would be stupid enough to stay on a barrier island with a storm that size.

[BrklynLiberal]

15. Sad...very sad.

[lisa58]

18. Rest in Eternal Peace - I'm so sorry

[Libby2]

19. Absolutely heartbreaking. n/t

[KoKo]

22. Kick! "backroom story" ...needs to get out there. n/t

[endelfam]

27. So sad.....but you can't say what you would do in a specific situation.

People are also forgetting what happened during Rita. Our family and most of Houston was told to evacuate for that storm. We were on the freeways for 5 hours and went a grand total of 20 miles. The highway was like a parking lot. People were fainting in cars and begging others for water. Many more people died on the roads than from the effects of the storm, especially since the winds did not even touch us. We decided to turn back and find our way to our home on back roads.

So when we faced Ike, we were thinking about Rita. We were terrified that the hurricane would approach and we would be stuck in the middle of a freeway. We were not under manadatory evacuation so we sheltered in place. But we talked seriously about what to do if they did tell us to leave. We were frankly uncertain.

Everyone broadcast the fact that Ike was a category 2 storm. Only at the last 24 hours did they begin reporting about the surge. I've lived through several other category 3 hurricanes and this one was much, much worse than those. I don't know why but it was. We just got our power back a few days ago; our internet came back yesterday. Many traffic lights are still out and piles of limbs in front of our house.

Yes, I think I would have left if I was on Bolivar. More likely, I wouldn't live in such a location. But I do understand how people get stuck and end up paying with their lives.

[tnlefty]

29. So sad.

Can't comment right now, just :kick:

[Jamastiene]

32. RIP to those people.

Walk a mile in another person's shoes before you judge.

You really do get attached to where you live sometimes. You really are too poor to be able to get out sometimes.
You really do get caught unaware sometimes.
You really do not want to leave your pets behind sometimes.
The list could be endless.

You really never know what another person was going through to make judgments on why they stayed. It really doesn't matter. Dead is dead and missing is missing and tragedy is tragedy. Does it really matter why they stayed? Gone is gone.

That is all I really have to say to anyone who faults the ones who stayed. Gone is gone. Those lives lost will never be brought back. It's a tragedy any way you look at it.


I wish I could help the ones who left but lost their homes.

Being homeless is something that stays with you your entire life. You never forget the first time you became homeless.

You will never be the same again, but after you rebuild and get used to the newness of it all and get over the shock, you can get your life back on some decent track. I know that much.

That's not much help when all you have is what little you could take with you before you went homeless though.

It's times like these I wish I could afford to help people the most, because homelessness truly fucks you up for a long long time. I've been there. I'll never forget that feeling for as long as I live.

Best wishes to those who lost their homes, pets, livelihoods, neighborhoods, family members, friends and everything that makes life what it once was. :cry:

and
RIP to those who lost their lives

[Igel]

34. "Does it really matter why they stayed?"

Yes. The reason matters, because some reasons can be dealt with to prevent future deaths.

If they stayed because the timing and location of the surge was wrong so they were forced to stay, then the appropriate course of action to prevent further deaths is to increase surge-prediction capability. Their deaths ultimately are a consequence of faulty or incomplete applied scientific understanding.

If they stayed out of sentimental attachment or because they weren't about to leave just on the government's say so, then there might be no way of getting them to leave. Their deaths are their own fault.

If they stayed because they lacked transportation, or a means of transport that wouldn't leave them dead (think of those in nursing homes or hospitals), then the appropriate response is to find a way of providing better transportation.

If adequate transportation was, in principle, available, and they didn't so much stay as get left behind because they weren't on the appropriate list of people to be evacuated, then the proper response is to improve the bureaucracy, put in fail-safes.

If people died as a result of the powers' that be not issuing the evacuation order early enough, then there are other things that might be done. Impress upon the elected officials that while unnecessary (in hindsight) evacuations are a financial burden, not issuing the order leads to deaths; this has to be considered in conjunction with evacuation fatigue--unnecessary evacuations lead to lower compliance rates. If the order wasn't issued early because the predicted course of the hurricane wasn't properly understood--people look at the projected course as a line, not a cone of probability--then the elected folk need a course in probability and how to interpret the predictions. If the predictions themselves were in error, then you go back to para. 2.

So, yes, it matters very much why those who died stayed, at least to those that care about those who didn't die.

[EFerrari]

36. What a stupid, disrespectful headline. n/t