Gallup Daily: Obama Moves to 50% to 42% Lead

[Mark E. Smith]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain 50% to 42% among registered voters in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking
update for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday -- just one point shy of his strongest showing of the year.

The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking polls until Tuesday's report, which
will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the
two candidates on Saturday suggest that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he
had for the two previous nights.

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110740/Gallup-Daily-Moves-50-42-Lead.aspx

[jpgray]

1. Where's the horse race punditry on this one?

:D

[endthewar]

18. "Obama is black"

That'll be one of their talking points to protect their market shares.

[olddad56]

22. wy is it that when a person is of mixed race, he is declared black...

if he has any African blood whatsoever. Obama is no more black than white. Why is Tiger Woods black when more than 50% of his linage is Asian?

[sharp_stick]

26. Simply the visual cue n/t

[Bjorn Against]

29. Because the concept of race is based more on social factors than it is on biological factors

[endthewar]

30. Race is a social construct, not a biological one.

There are actually larger genetic variations WITHIN races than BETWEEN races. The purpose of labeling a race is for a social purpose, and that is why Obama is considered black. If this was the 1960s, Obama would be arrested if he went to drink from the "Whites Only" water fountain. That's why he's labeled as black.

On a side note, I read a few months ago that the South African government decided to label people of Chinese descent as "black". Funny how a person's race depends on which part of the planet they're at.

I would be neglectful to not mention Tim Wise. He has a lot of youtube clips up and has written some provocative essays on this subject. His central premise is that the concept of "whiteness" was invented by the elite ruling class in order to preempt an expected revolt by the working class who were starting to see that they had a lot in common with people of other races in their income brackets.

[XemaSab]

36. Apparently in England

people of Middle Eastern, Indian, and Southeast Asian descent are "blacks." :shrug:

[earthlover]

48. So...historically....Jesus of Nazereth was a "black"

Funny how God sent his son as a "black" and many of his worshippers hate "blacks" and think them inferior. Isn't this blasphemy, or worse?

I mean, God could have sent his son as an Anglo-Saxon but chose not to....

[Ken Burch]

57. That's true.

That's why, in the film GANDHI, Ben Kingsley as the young Mahatma is told to get his "black ass" out of a white dining car when he's riding a train through South Africa(then under British rule).

[mcg]

72. Also there is more genetic diversity within Africa than outside Africa,

so the entire concept of there being a "negro race", in any real sense, is bogus.

[harmonicon]

34. race has nothing to do with genetics

It's a cultural construction, with "race" being assigned to individuals within a culture by a larger zeitgeist, or by individuals who self-identify as one of these constructed racial groups. The history of what these things mean in the US is long and constantly changing. For instance, I've heard that, on average, African Americans have a 30% European genetic make up. Just look at the Jefferson/Hemmings family.... this stuff isn't cut and dry. While it may be nice to think that these artificial distinctions could disappear in our lifetimes, the fact is that these distinctions are made, whether we like them or not, and that these distinctions carry a lot of meaning within our culture, especially as they effect individuals.

[DarleenMB]

66. thank you

I've said for years now that there is only ONE race on this planet ... the human race. Everything else is cultural bias.

Let's talk about something else, shall we?

How about the assignment of an Army Brigade to the United States in full violation of the constitution. How about that?!

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/

[harmonicon]

67. ha! the linked page no longer exists

seems like you must not have been the only one to see something gone awry.

[AnneD]

44. I heard that....

Obama is Irish...he's really O'Bama. God if that story ever gets legs, it's all over for Barack. Imagine next thing you know, it will leak out that he is Catholic. It's enough that Biden is, but Christ on a popsicle stick....do you really need the sarcasm smilie.

[Usrename]

73. Jesus Christ on a trailer hitch.

[Raschel]

53. What would you call him if you saw him?

Would you say that White guy over there, or that Black guy over there? And please, don't say you wouldn't say "that one Black guy over there."

And in the chance that you wouldn't know how to describe him, you for sure wouldn't say "that White guy over there."

It's as simple as that.

[Ken Burch]

55. The 'pugs, in their role as the Party of the Confederacy, still hold to the One Drop Theory.

(They exempt Condi Rice from this because even THEY aren't sure if that's blood in her veins.)

[Moochy]

61. Many have explained this right here

I hope you can get it.

[DWilliamsamh]

68. I answered your question in my Journal

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/DWilliamsamh/27

[Hekate]

75. It's a social construct. It's important (imo) that Obama was born & raised in multi-ethnic Hawai'i

It's a place that, if you scratch the surface at all, will make you think hard about what you really are. If you are not some shade of light brown, you stick out. I'm white, can't tan, I stuck out. He's black, his father was from Kenya, the exact opposite of the Islands on the planet, he stuck out. There's some suspicion from "locals"--who are you, do you know anything about this place, are you in the military -- leaving soon, much? Learning pidgin, learning how to code-switch with your language, gives you an "in" -- somewhat.

Because of his family, he gave a lot of thought to identity issues, much more than I did at the same age, and for very good reason. In his book he writes about trying to find role models for how to be a black male in America while growing up in Hawai'i. God knows his mother tried with books and music, but he needed a man. There were a few: one of them a Kansan of his grandpa's age who was a friend of his grandpa's.

He went to the Mainland to go to college, and he stayed here. He was seeking his identity as a black male American, and he found it. Eventually he married in to the African-American community. He maintains family ties to the Islands, and they to him -- little isolated Hawai'i is always ready to burst with pride at a native son who does well, and I have heard that he is called "Hawaii's third Senator." But you notice he lives in Illinois.

I will tell you what I know in my bones about his growing up in Hawai'i: being an African-American was a process of becoming, and it was a choice. There is a LOT of intermarriage in Hawai'i, and had he been a different person he could have easily chosen to stay in the Islands, graduate from UH, marry some nice girl who was Irish-Hawaiian-Chinese-Norwegian and have adorable little kids whose "other grandpa" was a man from the complete other side of the world, and that would be exotic for sure. He would always be black, but he would be "local" too -- and so would his kids.

I have been writing about this ever since Barack Obama appeared on the scene and a few DUers (some of them now gone) kept harping on whether he was too black or white or not black or white enough for them to approve of, much less the voters. I think the ingredient that most people don't see is the influence of Hawai'i. He made a valid choice about his identity, but he will still carry that in him.

Mahalo for listening.

Hekate

[APPLE_PIE]

37. Several of us ran the racists underground on Usenet.

They are spouting their racist garbage everywhere and the amount is going up. The higher Obama polls the more they are posting their garbage.
I countered with the anthropological truths that we all are of mixed races. The average black person is 15% white and the average white person is 4% black. No one on this earth is 100% white, black, red, or yellow. We are all mixed. Look around you, your cousins are everywhere.

GET OVER IT!

APPLE_PIE

[gateley]

2. Obama up 1, McCain down 2! nt

[buff2]

3. Wow........

That's a "dead heat"! :evilgrin:

[Mark E. Smith]

4. Rasmussen shows Obama ahead 50-44%

2 days running, largest lead yet
for Rasty.

[ejbr]

35. Thanks for sharing! n/t

[stoge18]

5. encouraging......

But I'm generally skeptical of most polls. It seems hard to believe that large swings such as this one are sound predictors of the outcome on November 4. Less than one month ago, McGrumpy and Clueless held a 7 point lead.... Still, I'm encouraged by the overall upward trend for Obama / Biden in practically all of the tracking polls.

The bigger question for me is: How can anybody still have NOT made up their mind in this thing? How can you be "undecided" in this one after all we've seen and been through?

[Grateful for Hope]

8. I suspect

that the only reason McCain's numbers were so high a month ago is because of the novelty of Palin. Now, people are beginning to see her for what she really is -- a poor excuse for a Governor, let alone for the VP position.

[stoge18]

12. Well, she certainly is a

novelty, now isn't she? :) I think you're right -- combination of convention bounce, Palin novelty. Naturally, I hope Barrack's upward trend continues -- I want to quit stressing about this thing ;)

BTW: I'm new here. Found you all some time over the summer. DU is now the first site I visit ever day. I'm a lifelong Democrat from northwest Pennsylvania. I'm glad I found DU.

[Grateful for Hope]

14. Welcome!

I think I can safely say that most of us are stressing -- given what happened in 2000 and 2004.

This time around, though, I am sensing a difference at least in media reporting. I am seeing far more criticism of McCain (and Palin) than I ever saw of Bush. I am much, much more hopeful this time around.

[DUlover2909]

20. Welcome to DU!

:D

[Patchuli]

23. We're glad you found us too!

Welcome stoge18! :patriot:

[yellowdogdemocrat2]

52. Welcome stoge18

We love democrats here at DU. Really nice to see someone from Pennsylvania. That state is very important for the win.
yellowdogdemocrat

[FatDave]

33. Palin's net favorable/unfavorable now at -10.

It was at +17 on 9/11. The sheen's definitely worn off of that one.

Net favorable/unfavorable rating is calculated by subtracting percent who say their opinion is unfavorable from those who say their opinion is favorable. Currenly, by the Kos/Research2000 poll, the candidates are at:

Obama: +27
Biden: +17
McCain: +1
Palin: -10

http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines

[stoge18]

38. you can polish a turd

But when that polish wears off, all you're left with is the same old turd.

OMG -- did I just call the Governor of Alaska a piece of shit? :)

[Grateful for Hope]

43. LOL! n.t

[FatDave]

47. And I wasn't smart enough to invest in turd polish futures.

[endthewar]

21. Good grief...

:rofl:

[stoge18]

27. you've got me all wrong.

I'm more optimistic than ever. Not by the polls, though.... By Barrack's message, his fortitude, and his ability to not hit the panic button when faced with a crisis. I'm so optimistic that for the first time in my life, I'm marching down to my local campaign headquarters to make a donation and buy those hardworking volunteers some pizza.

[endthewar]

28. I was just kidding with you :-)

:patriot:

Just looking for a laugh. :rofl:

[stoge18]

40. you made me laugh

I've always loved the Debbie Downer character.

Also, I'm new here and appreciate your willingness to respond to a noob's post. :patriot:

[elocs]

32. That people are actually undecided at this point is inconceivable to me.

They really find so little difference between Obama and McCain that they just cannot decide? They cannot choose between steak and baloney?

[gratefultobelib]

41. I ran into a few yesterday canvassing. I asked all of them if they had seen the debate, and

none of them had. One woman said she started watching, but it was too "boring." We have to face the fact many, many people are just not that interested in the election. Inconceivable, I know.

[XemaSab]

42. If I had to guess I would say most of them are racists but don't know they're racist

The "There's something about Obama..." factor.

[HughMoran]

6. 50% in another poll!

The magical 50% - woohoo!

[HughMoran]

7. 50% in another poll!

The magical 50% - woohoo!

[speedoo]

9. Debate performance kicking in.

Barring some miracle saving Palin Thursday night (or some other unpredictable event), the polls in another week will show Obama/Biden flying high and a landslide very likely.

[VoodooGuru]

10. It's breaking open now...

I noticed that a lot of the pre-debate narrative on CNN harked back to 1980, when Reagan was running very close to Carter before the debate, and made a lot more people comfortable with his relative inexperience, willing to believe that he could handle the job. The story was that in this debate, Obama was poised to do the same thing.

I think he did that. He looked and sounded like a president, while McCain looked and sounded like... well, like John McCain. He was too obviously trying to re-establish the old narrative, even to the point of actually trying to call himself a maverick. Believe your own BS much, John?

[4lbs]

11. Take a look at the recent trend for Gallup as well:

Thursday 9/25: Obama was tied with McCain, 46 - 46

Friday 9/26 (before the debate): Obama was up by 3 points, 48 - 45

Saturday 9/27: Obama was up by 5 points, 49 - 44

Sunday 9/28: Obama is up by 8 points, 50 - 42


So, Obama went from tied (by Gallup) to an 8 point lead in 4 days by two major factors:

1.) Obama's percentage steadily increased each day from 46 to 50

2.) McCain's percentage steadily declined each day from 46 to 42

[stoge18]

13. Is there such thing as a debate bounce?

What can we surmise from previous elections with respect to (in what respect, Charlie? :)) debates and polling?

[lurky]

16. Incompetence.

The "suspension" fiasco, the Palin meltdown, the weird debate behavior: It all adds up to make the McCain campaign look like a bunch of bumbling amateurs.

I think a lot of people who would otherwise be leaning towards McCain will balk at the idea of another incompetent nutjob in the White House. Most people will choose a competent, level-headed president they disagree with over an incompetent hothead, even if they like and agree with hothead.

[stoge18]

46. how many will stay home?

I am getting the sense that more and more repugs will think about staying home on November 4 after all of the bungles. Anybody else?

[Piewhacket]

15. 50% Obama is great news, now what about electoral vote?

McCain is in panic, so that says something of what McCain thinks.
Any projections?

[stoge18]

19. panic = desperation

We already saw the "suspend my campaign stunt" last week. How far is this cat willing to go? I suspect we'll see just how far some time in the very near future. Barrack has many more options in EV whereas McGrump must run the table. If I weren't so jaded from years of piss-poor leadership and voter apathy I'd say we're in foor a landslide.

[wilsonva]

58. I'm sure he is in a panic

kind of like last Wednesday when he decided to suspend his race and go to Washington. Expect McWorse to do something similar in the next day or so. How about Palin's daughter getting married on national teevee?

[knixphan]

74. bienvenue!

:hi:

[Phred42]

17. They are just trying to suck you in - so that when they show the tie

three days before the Election - you will buy that Grampy 'won' the stolen election.

Stop falling for it.

[pf99]

24. Great News!!!!

But this thing is long from over.

Let's get out and work like if we were behind.

[kevinds13]

25. Obama at 50%

This is great news. And to imagine, throwing in all the younger voters who don't own land lines...

[ShadowLiberal]

31. Great, but keep in mind there's still 3 debates to go that could change things

I don't want to get too optimistic just yet, especially after hearing on one show this morning (MTP I think) how Gore and Kerry got a big boost from their first debate, but ended up losing the election anyway.

[PermanentRevolution]

45. I don't remember re: Gore, but Kerry was behind in the polls going into the debates

His debate performance helped him turn it into a tie, but never gave him a significant lead. Obama was leading going in, and seems to be set to increase that lead coming out.

[BigAnth]

39. This Gallup poll doesn't reflect the impact of the debate.

That won't be seen until the Tuesday numbers come out. So you can expect an additional post-debate bounce and I'm pretty confident that there will be another post-debate bounce after Thursday's VP debate.

Having said that, I agree that we should keep working like we're behind. We can't take our eye of the ball.

[varun]

49. Ideally I'd like to see a 60-40

but I know that I'm asking too much.

Then, I'll be able to relax - because I'm afraid of repug tactics and voter fraud.

[Doctor_J]

50. good luck with that

;-). Best we ccan hope for is about 55-40. Truth be told I think the Repukes have given up on this election - otherwise Palin would have bowed out "to care for the baby & expected grandchild". They are now spending their time figuring out how to sabotage Obama's presidency

[Ken Burch]

54. Actually, the 'pugs could probably still game an election where they were 20 points down.

They'd have the National Guard take over voting stations if necessary.

We can't EVER let down our guard with these bastards.

[BrklynLiberal]

59. THAT is exactly what I am afraid of.

[crossroads]

51. I believe the debate finally hit home with some & they didn't like what they saw in McSame!

This is great news! Come on sheeple wake up!

CR

[wilsonva]

60. These numbers don't have the debate in there

That will be reflected in Tuesday's numbers.

I expect a huge bounce by then unless McWorse does something kooky to distract people.

[Maestro]

56. This is looking optimistic.

I guess even some of the moderates that have been brain dead over the past 8 years can't ignore how badly McCain did in the debate and how utterly pathetic Palin is.

[populistdriven]

62. We are Peaking too Early! NOOOO! We are DOOMED! DOOMED I Say!

Bullshit

[704wipes]

63. McStunt is done? Used to be a 45% criteria by a certain date

I don't remember what the date was, but there used to be a hard & fast rule in presidential polling that if your national polling was not at 45% or above by a certain date, you were done. I think maybe it was like with a month to go? Maybe it was with a week to go. I can't remember. And, then again maybe the rule is not hard & fast like it used to be.

[RBInMaine]

64. DON'T LET UP !! KEEP ON HAMMERING !!

[OakCliffDem]

65. K & R. I like good news

[llmart]

69. YES!!

Let's all keep speaking out against the Repukes to everyone we can and every chance we get. Get your yard signs out and bumper stickers. Proclaim your vote publically because they want us to cower. Not this time! No Way, No How, No McCain.

[samsingh]

70. this should put us at 52% by tuesday

[DeepModem Mom]

71. K&R

[truthisfreedom]

76. Why doesn't that site show "among likely voters" instead of "among registered voters"?

That's the freeper meme... they always claim that registered Democratic Party members won't show. I know that's not true... but I'd like to see a breakdown among likely voters.