Poll: Race for White House tied

[DeltaLitProf]

Source: CNN

By Paul Steinhauser
CNN Deputy Political Director

DENVER, Colorado (CNN) -- It's a dead heat in the race for the White House.

The first national poll conducted after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that the battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and John McCain is all tied up.

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/24/election.2008.poll/index.html

---

It looks unlikely to me that this is indeed a poll that reflects the public's knowledge of the Biden choice. If it is, it must have been run prior to the respondents having a chance to get to know much about Biden or form an opinion.

[Triana]

1. This is fucked up.

Period.

[rurallib]

2. Much like baseball predictions in March

Call us back @ oct 25th.

[Gman]

16. No, it's like World Series predictions in July

the All-Star break is gone and everyone's been playing since April, and it's becoming more and more clear who's gonna be there and who's not.

[Bonobo]

3. Wow. The opinions of 1,000 people. Guess I'll just stay home and see how the Supreme Court rules. nt

[Somawas]

4. The disturbing thing about that poll is this:

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.

The choice of Biden makes no difference to the PUMA Hillaryites.

[depakid]

That sort of thinking just enables Republicans

who've been behind these so called "puma" efforts from the outset. This is a small insignificant group that without corporate media coverage- and play on sites like this, would an unknown on the fringe.

[still_one]

9. They are lying. No TRUE Clinton supporter would vote for mccain

That is why I suspect that most of the people who answered that way were actually republicans who lied and said they were Democrats

[Sancho]

42. I disagree very much...there are Hillary supporters among the GOP crossovers...

who would vote for her and not vote for Obama. Especially among the older voters who tend to vote in high percentages. McCain is (to them, not me) a traditional and predictable candidate. We're not talking about PUMA's here, but soccer moms and frustrated conservatives.

[howmad1]

18. PUMA Hillaryites?

Don't you mean rethuglicans disguised as Democrats? WTF is wrong with the Democratic convention delegate confirmation process anyway?

[amborin]

34. i can see where all this is leading...

trying to make hillary and her supporters assume the blame

yet, many factors are affecting this polling change, not least of which has been the O campaign's perplexing series of speeches in the past month, in which mind-numbing statistics were substituted for pithy, succinct, hard-hitting points that would resonate with the audience

too many more opportunities squandered, and i can predict the outcome

the campaign needs to be continually proactive, harsh, feisty, and hard-hitting

dems need to be shaping and controlling the discourse, not reacting to it ( and worse yet in slow motion)

[napi21]

5. I just did a post on pollsters not having access to cell $'s & internet phone

service users. That's a LOT of people who are never registered in any poll! I can tell you I'm SOOO excited by this ticket! I've been smiling, clapping and cheering for 2 days! I KNOW I'm not the only one!

[TheModernTerrorist]

38. Same here...

When talking about who I wanted to be Obama's VP Joe Biden was my top choice, at least out of all those who were being vetted. I was excited to see he got it and I'm going to do what I can to make sure they get Michigan.

[speedoo]

6. MOE = 3.5 points. nt

[fasttense]

45. No that is not the MOE

"The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, with 1,023 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all voters. For registered Democrats, it is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and for Democrats who still support Clinton for the party's nomination, it is plus or minus 7.5 percentage points."

Something is funny here. Why the difference in MOE? Unless the sample is skewed.

[Frank Booth]

7. This is fine.

This probably falls far on the McCain side of the margin of error, and will make the post-convention "bounce" appear even bigger.

[still_one]

8. 27% of Clinton voters now say they will support mccain. bullshit. Somebody's lying

to the people taking the poll

It would be somewhat believable if they said they wouldn't vote, but for a "so-called" Clinton supporter to say they will vote for mccain is a LIE

I suspect they are actually republicans, saying they were either Democrats or Clinton supporters, both being untrue

In addition, Real Clear politics shows Obama trending back upward

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

The issues will be quite clear during the Convention, do you want 4 more years of bush/mccain?

It is as simple as that

[Frank Cannon]

26. I don't buy it, either. It's complete bullshit that defies any logic whatsoever.

I, too, suspect these are Rushbots trying to perpetuate their master's "Operation Chaos". There is just no fucking way that someone who supported Hillary thinks they're going to get from McCain what they would have gotten from her. It's preposterous. Only a clueless dittohead would think that makes any sense.

[Sancho]

43. You hit the nail on the head. Hillary was attracting crossovers, Obama does not.

At least that is the local evidence in Florida.

[cyr330]

10. Unbelievable. . .

I voted for Hillary, but I would NEVER dream of voting for a Repig under any circumstance. Obama has my 100% support now. Anybody doing otherwise at this point is crazy.

[goclark]

11. Thank you ~

[still_one]

13. That is because I don't believe those people are telling the truth

It would have some credibility if they said they were not voting for anyone, but to say they are voting for mccain tells you the poll is flawed

Most likely they were republicans who lied and said they were either Democrats or Clinton supporters

The differences between Hillary and mcbush are so vast that there is no way that would happen

[TerribleLarryDingle]

17. I have seen this on repug infested sites I visit.

They say the got a call from a pollster and pretend to be Democrat voting for McCain just to fuck with them.....and Us.


Don't be fooled anyone.

[still_one]

23. I was speculating because it doesn't make sense. If they said they were not voting

that might of had some credibility, but they blew their cover when they said they would vote for mccain

and cnn did their half-assed flash poll pumping as though it means something

[Speaker]

25. CNN desperately wanted Hillary.

Be prepared for them to pump out plenty of "proof" that Biden was a bad choice.

[still_one]

27. Perhaps, but Hillary herself will clear that up next week

I also suspect that if we win the White House, Obama will nominate her for the Supreme Court if a vacancy happens

[Speaker]

44. Yep.

That's why it is so frustrating watching some Hillary supporters torpedo Obama.

If Obama wins, incredible new opportunities open up for Hil.

I imagine that Obama would give her the choice of Secretary of State or Attorney General for a place to park until a SCOTUS slot opens up.

[Tansy_Gold]

32. I'm with you, cyr

A strong Hillary supporter who would NEVER EVER vote for a puke.

[NanceGreggs]

12. Wow!

Poll numbers that are every bit as accurate as the "facts" that emanate from CNN and the rest of the MSM!!!

[Tutonic]

14. Don't believe it. McCain has never broken 45%--and now we are

to believe that he has jumped to 47%. Yeah when monkeys fly.

[Tutonic]

15. Need to look at state by state polls. CNN=FOX. Two blind rats.

[Pirate Smile]

19. Hey look - another new poll out: USA Today/Gallup: Obama by 4 with Registered Voters

USA Today/Gallup: Obama by 4 with Registered Voters
by DemFromCT
Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:22:14 PM PDT
(Bumped -- kos)

You may recall this same USA/Gallup from last month, wherein McCain was up by 4 with Likely Voters, but this time around it's Obama by 3. Do we really think things have changed so much, or did Gallup just screw up the last poll? McCain's never above 45 anywhere else, which tells you something about his appeal.

The national polls and the trackers are simply not showing a surge for McCain. Obama leads by 2 to 5 points in the last 7 non-trackers over the last week (and ties or leads the trackers.) But you can bet that, flawed concept or not, if McCain had gone from 4 down to 3 up in the Gallup poll, it'd be plastered all over the news.

These numbers are from USA Today and Polling Report.

Presidential choice
LV Aug. 21-23 (July) (June) MoE +/- 4

Obama 48 (45) (50)
McCain 45 (49) (44)

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/24/192837/112/301/574322

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-24-campaignpoll_N.htm

[happygoluckytoyou]

20. CRAP from the GOP media to hype up GOP interest...to save their SENATE

[happygoluckytoyou]

22. McCain only has a grip on his dick, and the REAL OLD USELESS RICH WHITE GUY vote

[Tutonic]

28. Bwahhhhh!

[scarface2004]

21. national poll?!?!?!

so fucking what. it only matters what ohio and florida do...the rest of the country can suck ass because of the electoral college!!!

[defendandprotect]

24. I think I'll wait for a poll by Daily Kos or MoveOn! . . .. this is BS ---

[santamargarita]

29. I don't believe anything from those fascist pigs at CNN!

Just more bullshit propaganda from the Goddamn Mainstream Media!

[AKing]

30. Nate Silver fivethirtyeight.com says it may be misleading.....

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/cnn-poll-suggests-trouble-for-obama-but.html

[PSPS]

31. More Soviet-era Pravda-type nonsense

The media is dedicated into making this a horse race even if it comes to making things up out of thin air. After all, they've got a multi-billion dollar industry of pundits and right-wing hate radio to support and, unless they portray a potemkin election like this, they'd never be able to sell advertising or pay Rush his $200 million.

Frankly, I think Obama is probably 30 points ahead of McSame. But if the media were to reveal it, who'd bother to tune in their TEE VEE to watch the bloviators' wrestling match (and watch their ads?)

The added benefit, of course, is that Rove's vote-flipping is easier to hide when an election is falsely portrayed as "close."

We used to laugh at this sort of thing when Pravda published it about Soviet-era "elections" 25 years ago. Now we're a nation full of dullards who can't see it when it's happening here.

[AndyTiedye]

33. Many Who DO See It Simply Give Up on Voting and Politics

I figure at least make them go to the trouble of stealing my vote,
but I can see where that is not such a strong motivator for some.

[Divine Discontent]

35. everything was acceptable til I saw who the link was from...

Pravda-America, essentially. The New FauxNoiseChannel.

More OBAMA/BIDEN and anti-MCSAME at www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable

[Bosso 63]

36. So about half of the U.S. population is saying that we need

MORE of the same crap we have had for the last eight years? One out of two adults actually believes that republican policies have been so good that they are willing to order off that menu again?

I just can't believe that is possible, because it would mean that 50 % of the U.S is either on meth, insane or just so profoundly stupid that they lack the common sense God gave a chicken.

I have no doubt that millions of our fellow citizens fall into at least one of those categories, but if half the population STILL can't figure out what has been going on for the last eight years, then all I can say is that our nation is truly and profoundly fucked.

[EFerrari]

37. Relax. They only polled 1K and this is CNN

who need the "tie" for their ratings.

[Bosso 63]

46. Your probably right,

and I sure hope you are.

[EFerrari]

47. People are sick of Republican misrule. The Thugs had to cheat

in 2004, remember? And even Republicans don't like McMore. (And I wonder how this polling was done. I've yet to see McWar with a big crowd anywhere.

My guess is that we're much more in danger of a stolen election than a lost election.

[Joe Chi Minh]

39. Yes. And so is my Aunt Fannie.

[No Elephants]

40. Pelosi said yesterday that polls are based on those who voted in the last 2 elections.

That means they are not counting new voters or voters who have not voted in a while.

[Sancho]

41. I hate to say it...but here in Florida, not including Hillary somehow may cost the state.

I have always been interested in putting a Democrat in the White House and I don't care who as long as we get rid of all Bushes forever. It seems obvious that DUers are not the typical, uninformed person on the street. I live in a VERY republican neighborhood, and a fair number were willing to jump ship to Hillary and get rid of Bush, but there is not nearly as much independent or GOP support with voters here for Obama. There was lots of support for a woman candidate. Most older folks here also like Hillary's health care and economic plans. Bill and Hillary are both popular and even the hard core business guru's liked the Clinton budget.

Obama hasn't generated much traction with our traditional conservative crowd, and voting for drilling was the last straw for undecided Floridians. Unless there is a big change, you can put Florida in the red column for now. The only hope is that we can register enough new Democrats to make up the difference, but the registrations are rigged by difficult election supervisors and it is an uphill battle.

[Thrill]

48. A poll taken on SATURDAY NIGHT?? No wonder McCain is finally at 47% for the first time

how many people under 35 are at home at Saturday night?