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Purveyor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 11:59 AM
Original message
Big Three Face Bankruptcy Fears
Source: CNN MONEY

After huge losses and plunging sales, experts aren't ruling out the possibility that GM, Ford or Chrysler might eventually be forced to declare bankruptcy.

August 6, 2008: 10:00 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's been a bumpy road for Detroit's Big Three automakers for the past few years. But it may get worse.

Some experts fear that GM, Ford and Chrysler - their sales plunging as fewer consumers buy gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs - could be forced to head for bankruptcy.

---
'Clock is ticking'

All this had led to increased speculation that there could be a bankruptcy in the next year at one or more of the Big Three automakers. Credit rating firm Standard & Poor's cut GM and Ford deeper into junk bond status last week, leaving their debt just barely above the level normally associated with firms at significant risk of near-term default.

"The clock is certainly ticking," said David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research. "Obviously there's a risk. Nobody is home free."

Most experts wouldn't give odds that one of them will stumble into bankruptcy, but said there is a chance they could be forced into doing so if market conditions don't improve.

Read more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/06/news/companies/big_three_woes/?postversion=2008080610
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DS1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. Sucks for the grunts putting those things together
but too fucking bad.
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saigon68 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. All those "pesky" union contracts
Are about to be voided by a Chapter 11 proceeding.

Look at the airlines united et al --- to see how future pension commitments are jettisoned
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nels25 Donating Member (636 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Call me skeptical
but it may not go down like that.

With the advent of and Obama administration I think that congress would pass some laws pretty quick to deal with the problems you indicated (and that would be especially true if one of them filed before the election or inauguration).

The only way the workers are going to get screwed that bad is if McCain wins.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
2. The executive leadership at these companies did it to themselves. They get no sympathy.
The only people who get my sympathy are the workers who are gonna get fucked over.
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wordpix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. the leadership gets no sympathy but you can bet they'll get a fat severance package as thanks for
not turning around the lumbering dinosaur. Meanwhile, the plant workers will be out their jobs and possibly their pensions.
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cyclezealot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. Yes and No
The Big Three have been generous to their employees when times were good. That upon recently that had been the case. Good paying jobs and benefits. A history of how they got themselves into this predicterment is below. yes, they screwed up with recent marketing . Big time. If only for the foolish way America provides for their social benefits; I think American manufacturing would be productive, because the American workers , statistics show are among the most productive on the planet.

The link about pensions and healthcare.

by MALCOLM GLADWELL
THE RISK POOL
The New Yorker
Issue of 2006-08-28 | Posted 2006-08-21

The years just after the Second World War were a time of great industrial upheaval in the United States. Strikes were commonplace. Workers moved from one company to another. Runaway inflation was eroding the value of wages. In the uncertain nineteen-forties, in the wake of the Depression and the war, workers wanted security, and in 1949 the head of the Toledo, Ohio, local of the United Auto Workers, Richard Gosser, came up with a proposal. The workers of Toledo needed pensions. But, he said, the pension plan should be regional, spread across the many small auto-parts makers, electrical-appliance manufacturers, and plastics shops in the Toledo area. That way, if workers switched jobs they could take their pension credits with them, and if a company went bankrupt its workers’ retirement would be safe. Every company in the area, Gosser proposed, should pay ten cents an hour, per worker, into a centralized fund.
snip
In 1945, when President Truman first proposed national health insurance, they cheered. In 1947, when Ford offered its workers a pension, the union voted it down. The labor movement believed that the safest and most efficient way to provide insurance against ill health or old age was to spread the costs and risks of benefits over the biggest and most diverse group possible. Walter Reuther, as Nelson Lichtenstein argues in his definitive biography, believed that risk ought to be broadly collectivized. Charlie Wilson, on the other hand, felt the way the business leaders of Toledo did: that collectivization was a threat to the free market and to the autonomy of business owners. In his view, companies themselves ought to assume the risks of providing insurance.
snip
America’s private pension system is now in crisis. Over the past few years, American taxpayers have been put at risk of assuming tens of billions of dollars of pension liabilities from once profitable companies. Hundreds of thousands of retired steelworkers and airline employees have seen health-care benefits that were promised to them by their employers vanish. General Motors, the country’s largest automaker, is between forty and fifty billion dollars behind in the money it needs to fulfill its health-care and pension promises. This crisis is sometimes portrayed as the result of corporate America’s excessive generosity in making promises to its workers. But when it comes to retirement, health, disability, and unemployment benefits there is nothing exceptional about the United States: it is average among industrialized countries—more generous than Australia, Canada, Ireland, and Italy, just behind Finland and the United Kingdom, and on a par with the Netherlands and Denmark. The difference is that in most countries the government, or large groups of companies, provides pensions and health insurance. The United States, by contrast, has over the past fifty years followed the lead of Charlie Wilson and the bosses of Toledo and made individual companies responsible for the care of their retirees. It is this fact, as much as any other, that explains the current crisis. In 1950, Charlie Wilson was wrong, and Walter Reuther was right.

The key to understanding the pension business is something called the “dependency ratio,” and dependency ratios are best understood in the context of countries. In the past two decades, for instance, Ireland has gone from being one of the most economically backward countries in Western Europe to being one of the strongest: its growth rate has been roughly double that of the rest of Europe. There is no shortage of conventional explanations. Ireland joined the European Union. It opened up its markets. It invested well in education and economic infrastructure. It’s a politically stable country with a sophisticated, mobile workforce.

But, as the Harvard economists David Bloom and David Canning suggest in their study of the “Celtic Tiger,” of greater importance may have been a singular demographic fact. In 1979, restrictions on contraception that had been in place since Ireland’s founding were lifted, and the birth rate began to fall. In 1970, the average Irishwoman had 3.9 children. By the mid-nineteen-nineties, that number was less than two. As a result, when the Irish children born in the nineteen-sixties hit the workforce, there weren’t a lot of children in the generation just behind them. Ireland was suddenly free of the enormous social cost of supporting and educating and caring for a large dependent population. It was like a family of four in which, all of a sudden, the elder child is old enough to take care of her little brother and the mother can rejoin the workforce. Overnight, that family doubles its number of breadwinners and becomes much better off.

**
Here, surely, is the absurdity of a system in which individual employers are responsible for providing their own employee benefits. It penalizes companies for doing what they ought to do. General Motors, by American standards, has an old workforce: its average worker is much older than, say, the average worker at Google. That has an immediate effect: health-care costs are a linear function of age. The average cost of health insurance for an employee between the ages of thirty-five and thirty-nine is $3,759 a year, and for someone between the ages of sixty and sixty-four it is $7,622. This goes a long way toward explaining why G.M. has an estimated sixty-two billion dollars in health-care liabilities. The current arrangement discourages employers from hiring or retaining older workers. But don’t we want companies to retain older workers—to hire on the basis of ability and not age?


http://www.pnhp.org/news/2006/august...ind_irelan.php

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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
21. It looks more like the automotive companies were a front for the oil industry . . .
Why would any automotive company ignore mpg as a selling factor and/or

electric cars --- ???


See: "Who Killed The Electric Car?" -- great movie!

Probably at your library ---
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geomon666 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:06 PM
Response to Original message
3. All dinosaurs go extinct. n/t
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. Exactly. If those three weren't smart enough or couldn't overcome their greed in time
to see which way the wind was blowing, then it's time for someone new.

I feel sorry for the Union workers. They are the ones that will suffer, certainly not the CEO's.
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kirby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
4. A scheme to screw retirees of the pension and health
benefits, I think. Taxpayers will pick up the tab too...
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Purveyor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. My thoughts exactly. They want this bankruptcy to wipe their legacy costs and
bust all union contracts.
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WriteDown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 01:38 PM
Original message
Must be a lot easier for Toyota and Honda...
Who have no unions and no legacy costs.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 01:06 AM
Response to Original message
23. At Least Some of Toyota's US Operations are Unionized
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WriteDown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. I refuse to settle for "some"
I'm sure it is a minority of their operations as well.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. This Does Beg the Question of "WHY NOT?"
Honda and Toyota employees have the same rights to unionize as any other autoworkers.
According to the UAW website, US-made Toyota Corollas are UAW-made.

Why are the bulk of the Japanese-owned auto factories here non-union?

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cyclezealot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. When a company goes bust there is no company.
US Steel did such. And pensions were just gone. A plot or not. Red ink is red ink.
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dysfunctional press Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #15
26. it worked out for united airlines.
they still fly, and they don't have pensions to worry about no more.
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EnviroBat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:21 PM
Response to Original message
6. Aww, don't worry. Our tax dollars will be used to bail them out.
Don't you all know? Corporate Welfare is the foundation of our neo-fascist society now.
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wordpix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. and with no conditions on the billions we'll bail them with. grr
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Purveyor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Speaking of bailout: GM, Ford Should Receive $25 Billion in Plant Aid, Dingell Says
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:50 PM
Response to Original message
11. Anyone Recall In 2000 When Faux News Laughed At Gore For Wanting To Raise CAFE Standards?
I clearly remember Droopy Brit Hume stating that Bush should use this against Gore in MI.

Now, imagine a world wherein Gore was treated fairly and assumed the presidency. CAFE standards would have been raised. Energy would be more affordable, and folks in the U.S. auto industry would have held onto their jobs.

When it becomes acceptable to ridicule intelligent, well thought out positions, it's more evidence of a nation on the decline.
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zeemike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. I remember it all
But the wing nuts remember nothing but the current talking points given them.
Al Gore was right about a lot of things.
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pattmarty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
12. This is some scary shit.
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llmart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. Yep.....
It's why I said in an earlier thread - don't be too sure that your pension is safe just because you're union.
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Raster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 03:09 PM
Response to Original message
18. Corporate capitalism: the profits are privatized, the losses are socialized.
The difference between GM's bankruptcy and yours? You'll have to pay all your debts. Oh, and you'll have to pay GM's also.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 04:12 PM
Response to Original message
20. Seems to me all they have to do is start converting to electric cars ---
California wanted them ---

and/or convert these cars to higher mpg ---

We seem to be looking at the death of an automobile industry which was a front for

the oil industry --- ????


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corkhead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
22. Maybe Exxon will loan them some money
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meow2u3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
24. STP to Big Three: Make smaller cars
If you keep making too many SUV's and trucks and too few economy subcompacts, chances are you'll have fewer buyers.
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xequar Donating Member (2 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #24
28. Yes, and no...
As I'm sitting in the world headquarters of one of the Big 3, I can tell you you're absolutely right.

But there's a component that most people don't understand. New products take time to design and certify for U.S. crash standards, usually about 3 years at a minimum. So, in 2007 when Ford decided to bring the Fiesta to the United States market, it couldn't be any sooner than 2010, even though the Fiesta is already on the market in Europe. The reason is because the U.S. has uniquely different crash and emissions standards than other parts of the world. Had Ford decided in 2005 when they started the new Fiesta design that they wanted it in the U.S. market too, we would have it by now.

The other tricky thing is the U.S. market. Let's remember that the majority of American consumers want the biggest thing they can fit into their oversized garage. This is why SUVs ruled the roads until about 2004 desite all of the attempts to downsize cars and offer compacts during the 1980s. As soon as gas got cheaper, the automakers started losing their shirts on small cars, so they went for the biggest, gas-guzzlingest vehicles they could make. It's worth noting that Honda released the Insight, the first gas-electric hybrid to the U.S. market, in 1997. It flopped. Why? Gas was $1.12/gallon and when people were given the choice between the 12-mpg Ford Expedition (also released that year) and the gazillion mpg Insight... Well, we know which one is still on the market.

Now, Ford, GM, and Chrysler all should have had at least one person in management that had the three functional brain-cells needed to realize that gas was going to get more expensive. But they didn't, and a lot of good people are losing their jobs as a result. I've watched far too many friends and coworkers get walked out of the building because some overpaid morons upstairs decided another gas-guzzling truck was a good idea instead of a car, any car, that might break 20 miles per gallon.

My predictions for the U.S. car companies...
GM-needs massive massive restructuring before they have any hope of success. The 1960s corporate structure sized for 42 percent market share just isn't realistic anymore, and aside from Malibu and CTS, they don't have a whole lot going for them.

Ford-will do OK if they don't run out of cash before they get their announced European products over here. The American products are coming around on quality, and the European products have been sensational for years. Do they have the cash to make it through this economy and get it done?

Chrysler-SCREWED, plain and simple. They have no global presence even worth mentioning, their lineup includes trucks and cars with Hemi V8s, and the vehicles they do build still have massive quality issues. As soon as Cerebus realizes this, Chrysler dies.
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BR_Parkway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-07-08 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
29. Junk Bond Status - what's good for GM is good for America....
I can remember when that actually meant something - like good jobs, a solid middle class and a fairly safe retirement dividend.
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