STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 31

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 31, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 174
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2748 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2473 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2764
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 30, 2008

Dow... 11,583.69 +186.13 (+1.63%)
Nasdaq... 2,329.72 +10.10 (+0.44%)
S&P 500... 1,284.26 +21.06 (+1.67%)
Gold future... 912.30 -14.10 (-1.52%)
30-Year Bond 4.64% +0.02 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% +0.00 (+0.10%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: There Has Been Blood!

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

To say there’s been some blood spilt in the energy pits is an understatement. Since the start of the month the S&P energy sector is down nearly 16% while the financial sector is up nearly 7.5%, quite the pair trade during the month of July. A little less beaten down is the material sector, though the energy sector by far has taken the biggest beating, a swift and vicious one at that.

.....

Been There, Done That

The significant run up in energy shares off the May lows into June was most certainly a bit extended as most energy shares were fairly overbought and a correction was to be expected. The carnage that fell out was swift and sharp, but not extraordinary as far as energy shares go. For example, there have been nine double-digit corrections in the Amex Oil Index (XOI) since the start of 2005, with the current correction marking the second 20%+ correction (2007 correction nearly marked a third) in the past three and a half years. However, the end of the correction is likely at hand as energy shares are deeply oversold.

.....

Fundamental Appeal for Energy Shares

The fundamental analysis presented below builds upon a previous WrapUp (Energy Bull Market Fundamentals Remain Strong) in which there still remains a strong case for owning energy shares. An update of one of the figures presented in the April WrapUp is presented below that shows the picture for energy shares has only improved in the last few months. Back in April the inflation rate for oil field and gas field machinery was 8.0% after bottoming at 4.5% in January, supporting the rise in the shares of the oil service sector whose pricing power was rising unlike most sectors of the economy. Since then the oil service sector pricing power has increased further with the inflation rate now rising to 10%, this despite rig counts breaking to new highs this cycle as oil companies use their rising cash flow to increase production through the drill bit.

.....

Don’t Count On OPEC

The U.S. isn’t alone in facing the problem of falling imports as oil demand in oil exporting countries is cutting into the level of their exports as Jeff Rubin (click for history of his excellent calls and his bio), Managing Director of CIBC World Markets, and Peter Buchanan highlight below in their recent report.

OPEC: Solution or Part of the Problem?

Shady speculators. The sagging dollar. Global tensions. The only factor that OPEC’s leaders don’t blame for triple-digit oil prices is their own energy subsidies, that are fuelling runaway demand, and cannibalizing their oil and gas exports. That includes not only ultra-low prices for products like gasoline (see Occasional Report #62, “OPEC’s Growing Call on Itself”)—for which motorists typically pay a tenth or so the prevailing global rate— but even more egregious subsidies for oil- and gas-fired electricity.

Alongside impressive GDP growth, subsidies for a range of fuel types—including fossil fuel-fired electricity—are serving to boost petroleum demand in the Middle East, limiting the region’s exports and threatening to tighten global markets even further. Half of the world’s population pays less than the prevailing market rate for oil products, a key reason why triple-digit world oil prices have yet to quash global demand. Nowhere are users more shielded from those prices than in major oil-producing countries in the Middle East itself.

Mr. Rubin points out that crude exports from the Middle East fell by over 700,000 barrels per day in 2007, with rising demand as the chief culprit. The growth in demand from the Middle East is not limited to oil alone, as Mr. Rubin notes that near double-digit growth was seen in many Middle East countries for natural gas as well.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2
Briefing.com 2.7%
Consensus 2.3%
Prior 2.7%

08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2
Briefing.com 0.7%
Consensus 0.7%
Prior 0.7%

08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2
Briefing.com 2.8%
Consensus 2.3%
Prior 1.0%

08:30 Initial Claims 07/26
Briefing.com 380K
Consensus 395K
Prior 406K

09:45 Chicago PMI Jul
Briefing.com 50.1
Consensus 49.0
Prior 49.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. Q2 inflation rate ticks up to 4.2% -First negative quarter of GDP since 2001 in fourth quarter

01. U.S. Q2 inflation rate ticks up to 4.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

02. U.S. second-quarter gross domestic purchases falls 0.5%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

03. U.S. second-quarter real disposable incomes up 11.3%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

04. U.S. Q2 growth boosted by stimulus, big drop in imports
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

05. U.S. fourth-quarter GDP revised to negative 0.2% vs. 0.6%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

06. U.S. first-quarter GDP revised to 0.9% vs. 1.0%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

07. FIrst negative quarter of GDP since 2001 in fourth quarter
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

08. U.S. second-quarter GDP rises 1.9% vs. 2.3% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

[ozymandius]

26. Recession Sightings Picking Up Steam

Something's in the air...news of recession everywhere. Or so it seems this evening.

First, readers Michael and Scott sent us Jeremy Grantham's latest newsletter. Grantham is known as a perma-bear, and his call that a major bank would fail in the next five years (this about two years ago) was seen as a symptom that he had a few screws loose. No more.

Several changes in this update. First, Grantham now thinks we will have a global recession (before, he thought emerging markets would escape):

Economically, most emerging countries really looked to have decoupled for 18 months as we slowed and they did not. But in a global recession no one decouples. As German, French, and British growth slowed rapidly in the last 6 weeks, a global slowdown looks more likely and more painful. To this end, we have done an about face and lowered our weightings in emerging equities to neutral or just below. To critics of this change, I would cite the quote attributed to Keynes, caught in the same predicament: “When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?”

Nouriel Roubini, by contrast, never bought the decoupling thesis, as he reminds us in his latest post:

As already analyzed and discussed in detail in this blog there is now fresh evidence that at least a dozen major economies and some emerging markets are at risk of a recessionary hard landing. The list includes:

United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Canada
New Zealand
Estonia
Latvia
Some other South-Europe emerging markets


Moreover, even in the rest of the Eurozone (Germany, France, etc,) there is now evidence of a sharp growth deceleration as industrial production is falling in all of the Eurozone, business confidence is down, consumer confidence is down and retail sales are flat or falling....

So while we will not experience a global recession we will get close to one as the US will have a severe recession, Japan is entering one, a third of Europe will go into a recession, the rest of Europe will have a severe growth slowdown, the rest of the G-10 advanced countries is sharply slowing down and a few emerging market economies are entering a recession. And if the advanced economies are sharply slowing down or entering a recession the idea that China, India, the other BRICs and emerging markets can happily decouple from these recession or sharply slowing economies is far fetched.

.....

Finally, Mish has a very good post, "Credit Crunch Reaches Critical Mass." with a series of examples of money scarcity and resulting damage. Not conclusive, but not encouraging either.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/recession-sightings-picking-up-steam.html

[DemReadingDU]

29. U.S. Recession May Have Started at End of 2007, Revisions Show

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may have tipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures showed.

The world's largest economy contracted at a 0.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a previously reported 0.6 percent gain, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Growth for the period from 2005 through 2007 was also trimmed.

The revisions now reinforce measures such as employment and production that already signaled the economy was shrinking. The government also said incomes grew less than previously thought, raising the risk that consumer spending will again stumble after getting a temporary boost from the tax rebates last quarter.

``It was a weak quarter before and it remains a weak quarter,'' Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, said during a press conference this week, referring to the fourth quarter of 2007. He said the overall revisions ``maintain the same general picture'' of the economy.

The previous time the economy contracted was in the third quarter of 2001 during the last recession, when it shrank at a 1.4 percent pace. Growth from January through March was revised down to a 0.9 percent pace from 1 percent.

The revisions are part of the government's annual adjustments to gross domestic product based on additional information from surveys and Internal Revenue Service data. The changes in this year's report go back to the first quarter of 2005.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZMDdtdqEPOU&refer=home

[Hugin]

41. Eventually they'll peel it back to before the so-called "Jobless Recovery" that wasn't.

Thanks for all of your great contributions to the SMW, DemReadingDU. :)

[ozymandius]

64. Not picking at you - but I hate that phrase "jobless recovery".

This is more directed at some straw man who believes that a "jobless recovery" can actually exist. It's kin to saying a "consumer-free sales increase". An economy cannot recover when money is taken away from people who will spend it.

[Hugin]

72. As do I. I did include the qualifier 'so-called'.

It does not and never did exist. It was a myth and my using it is a taunt directed toward those who beat me
with it at every opportunity in the 2002 - 2004 time-frame claiming that there was a recovery.

My point being that it's been a Recession to the Middle-Class for far longer than is being admitted
anywhere.

I'll stop using it here. If you'd like, but, until I hear someone with some clout admit it was bullshit and this CF
started early in the Bush Administration. I won't have closure on it.

I guess I'll have to wait 50 years for the Bush Administration Truth and Reconciliation Act for that to happen.

[ozymandius]

76. No, please keep using it.

I felt compelled to respond even with your quotation qualifier because too many people believe in its existence. As the term is discussed here - or anywhere - the ridiculousness of the phrase enters our vast collective psyche.

I certainly have been amazed, when searching for terms on Google, to find a thread here at DU in the search results.

[Tansy_Gold]

79. the phrase kind of begs the question, doesn't it......

"WHO" recovered and "WHAT" did they recover?

If some of the main measurements of economic health -- and, sometimes, economic growth -- are such things as employment/unemployment rates, seasonally/inflation-adjusted wages, etc., then by definition a recovery cannot be "jobless."

A "jobless" recovery is nothing but a shift in wealth distribution that allows the have-a-lots to acquire more via increased productivity (either real or figure-manipulated) by those have-a-lot-lesses who still at least have jobs.

The other question, of course, is just how "productivity" as reported by the gummint and its surrogates is measured. It's possible, I suppose, to structure a productivity formula so that it includes the production of wealth via inflated housing prices AND the resultant foreclosures. Since we've seen both of those and since they're almost counterindicative, real productivity increases may be negative (as I strongly suspect they are) and be based on factors that have nothing to do with producing income/wealth in the traditional sense.

But of course, what do I know?


Tansy Gold, who knows a lot of things but maybe not this.. .. ..

[Hugin]

85. As usual, your explanation is so much more eloquent than my...

feeble attempts at beating the keys.


Bottom line... My point exactly.

Thanks once again, Tansy_Gold. :)


I need to remember that not everyone can read my mind and discern the intentions which drive the things I do.

[TalkingDog]

114. not everyone can read my mind and discern the intentions which drive the things I do

Welcome to my life story Comrade.

That's not a mustache on my lip, it's a dirt stain from a pathological case of hoof in mouth disease.

[UpInArms]

47. GDP gets stimulus checks boost

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3043337220080731?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Expansion accelerated modestly in the second quarter as government stimulus payments helped consumers add more buying punch to the economy, a Commerce Department report on Thursday showed.

Gross Domestic Product or GDP grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate, up from a revised 0.9 percent rate in the first quarter that previously was reported as 1 percent.

That followed a 0.2 percent contraction in GDP during the final quarter of 2007 and avoided pushing the economy into back-to-back declines that would have met a popular definition of recession.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a 2.0 percent rise in GDP in the second quarter.

Separately, the Labor Department reported a sharp jump in the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits -- up 44,000 though officials said some special factors were involved.

Nonetheless, the prospect of rising unemployment was likely to fan new calls for additional stimulus to keep the jobless rolls from swelling in a slowly growing economy.

...more...

[Hugin]

51. "special factors were involved." -- That is going to be my new all purpose excuse.

Brilliant!

:rofl:

Edit: special factors were involved.

[ozymandius]

63. "Special factors" conditions cannot be learned from a textbook.

They can only be discovered in a box of Cracker Jack.

[AnneD]

54. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: Doesn't information like this just want to make you pull out your nose hairs. We were warning that we were going into a recession for at least 2 years ago, and really started jumping up and down screaming about it March of last year.....AND WE ARE NOT ECONOMISTS. And these putzs, in hind site are saying we are right. Well, I'm here to ask the burning question.....what good is data if you can only get it after the fact. It's worth butkis to you, you can't make effective decisions. And that brings up another question.....did you really want the truth when you had it or were you so removed from most of the folks in this country that the information made no sense to you. I fear that our societal pillars have made themselves irrelevant and will meet the same fate as history had for others. I think once real information-not the soothing strains of propaganda-leaks out, the masses will not be mollified or go so easy into the night. We are already seeing stirrings.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Hugin]

57. Morning AnneD...

:hangover:


Looks like the "No sucker will go un-rallied" effort will continue unabated.

If you don't read anything else today, be sure to read the Whitney post down below. Looks to be the Australians
don't think CDOs are worth much no matter what rating was given to them.

:hi:

[AnneD]

65. Morning Prag,

:hangover:Always a pleasure to chat with you.:hello:

I did read it. I am so grateful to get truly good info to make informed decisions. That is why I am so upset with the M$M today. They are going the way of Pravda and I think maybe more folks are waking up to it, esp the young computer savvy folks.

My daughter is trying to teach me all kinds of things now before she goes to college. She is my tech guru. I'm going to miss her like crazy and although she won't admit it-I know the truth.

[UpInArms]

48. U.S. economy suffers fourth-quarter contraction

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commerce-dept-concedes-us-economy/story.aspx?guid=%7BB40570D2%2D40FB%2D45BD%2D8920%2DFEC19E1A1F26%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2007, the first quarter of negative growth since the 2001 recession, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its annual revision to gross domestic product.

Real GDP fell 0.2% in the quarter; a 0.6% increase had previously been reported. Many economists who think the economy is in recession believe it began in the fourth quarter.

Growth in the first quarter of 2008 was revised down a tenth of a percentage point to 0.9%. The economy grew 1.9% in the second quarter, the department said. See full story.

The revisions encompass better and more up-to-date data from sources not available when the government fixes its quarterly estimates. Read the full report.

Recession redefined

It's a common (but mistaken) belief that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

The actual working definition is "a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months," usually seen in GDP as well as monthly data on job growth, income growth, industrial output and business sales. All four of the monthly indicators are flashing recession signs.

The fourth quarter was particularly weak. Gross domestic purchases -- a gauge of domestic demand -- fell at a 1% annual rate, the biggest drop in 17 years. Another measure of domestic spending -- final sales to domestic purchasers -- fell 0.1%, the first decline since 1991. Consumer spending rose at a 1% annual rate, the slowest growth since 1995, while investment in housing fell at a 27% annual rate, the worst decline since 1981.

...more...

[Demeter]

125. And NEXT Quarter, they'll Admit to Recession After Revising 1Q

What a job! We should be so Rovian.

I've decided that I have no basic ability to "make money". I have innumerable skills and varied work experience, but I lack that "Je ne sais quoi": the ability to smile, brown-nose, eat shit and like it, lie like a rug even when it isn't necessary or even useful, and otherwise prostitute my character and intellect at the corporate command.

This is a serious flaw in my personality. It's hurting myself and my children. I'm asking for help. Intervention, anyone?

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 44,000 to 448,000 - last wk rev'd down 2,000

01. U.S. employment costs up 3.1% over past year
8:31 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

02. U.S. Q2 employment costs rise 0.7% vs. 0.8% expected
8:31 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

03. U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims up 42,750 to 3.17 mln
8:31 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

04. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 185,000 to 3.28 mln
8:31 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

05. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 11,000 to 393,000
8:31 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

06. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 44,000 to 448,000
8:31 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

[ozymandius]

24. Underemployment Hits Record as Companies Cut Hours

The proportion of Americans designated as "involuntary part-time" hit a record high. This development would seem to undercut the unexpectedly upbeat news from the ADP payroll report earlier this week, that an unexpected 9,000 jobs had been added. Some experts warn that these reductions in work hours are a precursor to workforce reductions.

From the New York Times (note I've omitted the sad stories, but some really are pretty grim):

The number of Americans who have seen their full-time jobs chopped to part time because of weak business has swelled to more than 3.7 million — the largest figure since the government began tracking such data more than half a century ago.....

On the surface, the job market is weak but hardly desperate. Layoffs remain less frequent than in many economic downturns, and the unemployment rate is a relatively modest 5.5 percent. But that figure masks the strains of those who are losing hours or working part time because they cannot find full-time work — a stealth force that is eroding American spending power.

All told, people the government classifies as working part time involuntarily — predominantly those who have lost hours or cannot find full-time work — swelled to 5.3 million last month, a jump of greater than 1 million over the last year.

These workers now amount to 3.7 percent of all those employed, up from 3 percent a year ago, and the highest level since 1995.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/underemployment-hits-record-as.html

[UpInArms]

42. U.S. July Chicago PMI prices paid 90.7, 28-year high

01. U.S. July Chicago PMI prices paid 90.7, 28-year high
9:47 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

02. U.S. July Chicago PMI 50.8% vs. 49.6% June
9:46 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

but the markets will only see the upward number in the PMI so who cares that inflation caused the number to increase?

[Pale Blue Dot]

43. And that's exactly what happened.

The markets have reversed themselves after the release of these numbers.

:eyes: Lemmings.

[Hugin]

55. Yup...

The reversals are so quick these days.

There's a sucker rally born every minute.

[ozymandius]

66. In that case - I'm investing in Zimbabwe bonds.

I've heard the yield is increasing at a rate of 1 million percent.

[UpInArms]

44. NY City economic downturn continued in July-NAPM NY

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3055540520080731

NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - The downturn in New York City business conditions picked up pace in July as future optimism turned abruptly to pessimism, according to an industry report released on Thursday.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-New York's index of local business activity edged down to 411.8 in July from 417.5 in June and 419.8 in May.

The index reading was 422.6 in July of last year.

The report's seasonally adjusted measure on current business conditions fell to 38.5 in July from 45.4 in June and 50.4 in May.

The survey's six-month outlook plummeted to 44.8 in July from 62.4 in June and 71.4 in May.

Respondents cited financial concerns, economic issues affecting consumer spending, and rising raw material and energy costs as business impediments.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steady in Asia as Iran nuclear deadline nears

SINGAPORE - Oil prices were steady Thursday in Asia after crude jumped more than $4 overnight as Iran vowed to continue its nuclear program and a U.S. agency reported America's gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell last week.

Only days remain until a deadline expires for Tehran to show it will stop expanding its uranium enrichment program, at least temporarily, or face the threat of new U.N. sanctions.

.....

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose 4 cents to $126.81 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract soared $4.58 to settle at $126.77 a barrel on Wednesday.

In London, September Brent crude was down 9 cents at $127.01 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

...

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.37 cents to $3.524 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices were steady at $3.1351 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 1.9 cents to $9.270 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

6. Shell: Record 2Q net profit of $11.6 billion - thanks to high oil prices and the weak dollar

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080731/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_netherlands_shell

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands - Royal Dutch Shell PLC said Thursday that second-quarter net profits rose 33 percent to a record $11.6 billion, up 33 percent from the same period a year ago, thanks to high oil prices and the weak dollar.

The year ago figure was $8.67 billion.

The company said its selling price per barrel of oil was around $112, up from $64 a year earlier. That pushed earnings at its main exploration and production arm up 90 percent to $5.88 billion, despite a 1.1 percent fall in production to 3.05 million barrels of oil and equivalents per day.

Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer called the results "competitive" in a statement Thursday.

A "good operating performance, combined with increased oil and gas prices, offset the impact of weaker" refining margins, he said.

Refining profits rose 16 percent to $4.54 billion.

...more...

[ozymandius]

20. Anheuser-Busch installs eco-friendly technology at brewery in Fairfield

One in seven Anheuser-Busch beers will be brewed using alternative fuels by the end of 2009, the brewer said Wednesday.

The company brewery in Fairfield is installing alternative-energy technology that will be operational by the end of the year, the company said.

As a result, the company will meet its 2010 goal of having its U.S. breweries run on more than 15 percent renewable fuel, Doug Muhleman, group vice president for brewing operations and technology, said in a statement.

The Fairfield brewery, along Interstate 80, will use solar panels to generate electricity and use a bio-energy recovery system, a technology that converts brewing wastewater into fuel.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2008/07/28/daily30.html

[UpInArms]

21. September crude down 89 cents to $125.88 a barrel on Globex

04. September crude down 89 cents to $125.88 a barrel on Globex
8:16 AM ET, Jul 31, 2008

[UpInArms]

45. Exxon Mobil net climbs 14% - record $12 Billion for the quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/exxon-mobil-profit-up-14/story.aspx?guid=%7B9008E53D%2DD6A8%2D4045%2D8941%2D3BFD913282FA%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Exxon Mobil Corp. said higher oil prices drove profits to a new record of $12 billion, but the world's largest oil corporation fell short of Wall Street's earnings target for the second quarter in a row on higher costs, lower refining and chemical margins and a 3% dip in adjusted production.

Exxon Mobil (XOM: 82.00, -2.38, -2.8%) on Thursday said second-quarter net income rose 14% to $11.68 billion, or $2.22 a share from $10.26 billion, or $1.83 a share in the year-ago period.

The oil giant and component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJ: 11,525.39, -58.30, -0.5%) cited record oil and natural gas prices, but noted rising costs and lower margins in its refining and chemical units.

Excluding items, net income rose to $2.27 a share from $1.83 a share. On a pure dollar basis, adjusted net income rose 17% to $11.97 billion, or $10.26 billion, eclipsing its earlier record of $11.66 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 73.200 Change -0.104 (-0.14%)

Fed Announcement and ADP Helps to Lift the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Fed_Announcement_and_ADP_Helps_1217451640614.html

Positive economic data has continued to drive the US dollar higher. Payroll provider ADP reported a 9k rise in jobs this month. As one of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, this along with stronger consumer confidence numbers is good news going into this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. However don’t expect positive job growth in the month of July. The only thing that the ADP number suggests is that the number of job losses could be less severe than the prior month. The four week moving average of jobless claims have also fallen in the week ending July 19 even though initial claims climbed to 406,000. Nonetheless, we can not forget the countless layoff announcements that have surfaced over the past two months and the fact that US companies are cutting back. ADP has a track record of being notoriously optimistic about projecting payrolls. Non-farm payrolls dropped in each of the past six months but between January and June, the ADP employment survey on the other hand only dropped 2 out of the 6 months. ADP has consistently missed to the high side and we expect the same this month. Meanwhile a surprising announcement from the Federal Reserve has also helped to rally the US dollar and US stocks. “In light of continued fragile circumstances in financial markets,” the Federal Reserve extended the tenure of their Primary Dealer Credit and Term Securities Lending Facilities. This means that in addition to their 28-day loans, they will also be selling 84-day loans. In response, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank will also be making 84-day funds available at dollar auctions. These actions should help to calm the markets, especially as the rally in the stock market continues to ease risk aversion. However the changes are incremental since the Fed is simply tweaking their existing programs to give themselves more flexibility when there are times of “elevated stress.” As we have been mentioning all week, the dollar should continue to rally. The advance release of second quarter GDP is due for release tomorrow. Despite the inherent problems within the US economy, GDP growth is expected to accelerate thanks to the rise in retail sales.

...more...

Euro Consolidates at 1.5600 - Will ADP Provide a Clue to Payrolls

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Consolidates_at_1_5600___1217411778306.html

After collapsing for nearly 200 points in yesterday’s trade the EURUSD spent most of the night quietly consolidating its losses in a 1.5560-1.5600 range. The focus in the currency market has clearly shifted away from fears about the slowdown in the US economy to concerns about the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in the EZ.

The sharper scrutiny of European economic data finally triggered a deluge of sales as momentum players bailed out of the pair all day long as the reality of slowdown in global economic growth has finally hit the 15 member region. In economic news tonight the results were mixed with Retail PMI data staging a mild rebound from 44.00 to 46.00 but confidence gauges plunging to new lows. Economic sentiment dipped to 89.5 from 93 forecast and Services confidence contracted from a reading of 9 to 1.

The conditions on the ground in the EZ suggest an sudden and dramatic decline in demand. Therefore, hawkish rhetoric notwithstanding we believe that that ECB’s tightening cycle has come to a screeching halt. Tomorrow’s German labor data should provide the final clue to the market. If unemployment in the region’s largest economy actually rose the chances of any further rate hikes from Mr. Trichet and company will be reduced to nil. In fact the bankers in Frankfurt will be assailed with pleas of rate cuts from the EZ Economic ministers looking for relief.

Meanwhile in Switzerland the KOF index of leading indicators confirmed that the slowdown has spread to EZ neutral neighbor as it missed expectations printing at 90 versus 95 forecast. The SNB which usually shadows the ECB in rate policy chose to remain stationary at its last meeting in June. Since then conditions have deteriorated significantly and as a result the chances of any additional tightening form the SNB have decreased markedly, leaving the Swissie vulnerable to continued carry trade flows as the interest differential has widened.

In North America session today all eyes will be on the ADP report as traders try to get an edge on the upcoming NFP numbers due out this Friday. Although the ADP data has been notoriously inaccurate in handicapping the actual NFP number, markets will be looking more at the direction of the data rather than its absolute value. If the ADP release suggests that unemployment increased but at a slower pace, the dollar rally may continue for rest of the day. However if the ADP print surprises to the downside the EURUSD could begin to retrace its losses as fears of deepening contraction in US economy will stop the dollar rally cold.

...more...

[ozymandius]

32. It's important to pay attention to this line:

"Although the ADP data has been notoriously inaccurate in handicapping the actual NFP number, markets will be looking more at the direction of the data rather than its absolute value."

ADP is pure fiction.

[UpInArms]

5. Starbucks posts first loss, backs '09 profit target

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080731/bs_nm/starbucks_results_dc

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) posted its first quarterly loss as a public company on Wednesday and said its U.S. coffee chain would shrink in the year ahead, but investors stunned by months of uncertainty sent shares up 4 percent as it stuck by its profit target for 2009.

Starbucks had been an engine of steady expansion since it went public in 1992, but sales growth has been slowing in the United States for more than a year, and the problem worsened as the housing market slumped and gas prices rose.

On Wednesday, the company lowered its 2008 profit forecast, saying fewer customers were visiting U.S. stores and costs were rising.

Chief Executive Howard Schultz warned that U.S. consumers were still hurting and cut the 2008 U.S. store-opening target for the third time this year.

"We want to be as cautious as possible and not over-expand at a time when the consumer may be under significant pressure," Schultz said on a conference call.

He also lowered 2008 and 2009 targets for opening international stores. Overseas growth had been cast as the growth engine of a recovering company.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Ex-Credit Suisse broker missing as securities probe nears: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080731/bs_nm/fraud_broker_creditsuisse_dc

(Reuters) - A former Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) broker charged with fraud in an auction rate securities scam may have fled to his native Bulgaria, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the case.

The move comes as prosecutors prepare to bring criminal charges in a probe into activities of two former Credit Suisse brokers -- Bulgarian-born Julian Tzolov and Eric Butler -- claiming they lied to investors about how they placed money into short-term securities, the Journal said.

The two New York-based brokers resigned from Credit Suisse on September 7, 2007, the newspaper had said earlier this month. It had also said Credit Suisse is not a target of the investigation, according to people familiar with the matter.

The investigation involves the market for auction rate securities, which allow issuers such as municipalities and student loan companies, closed-end mutual funds or financial institutions to borrow money for the long term but at short-term, or lower, interest rates, according to the paper.

...more...

[ozymandius]

8. Who qualifies for mortgage help and how to get it

Questions and answers about the Hope for Homeowners Act of 2008, passed by Congress last weekend to try to steer as many as 400,000 struggling homeowners away from foreclosure:

Q: What exactly will the legislation do?

A: It will allow those who qualify to cancel their old mortgage loans and replace them with 30-year fixed-rate loans for up to 90 percent of the home's current value. The FHA will insure a total of $300 billion of the loans over a three-year period.

But the decision on whether to write such a loan remains up to banks, which would have to be willing to take a loss on the existing loans in exchange for avoiding an often-costly foreclosure.

Q: Who is eligible?

A: Eligible borrowers must have spent more than 31 percent of their monthly incomes on their mortgages as of March 1, 2008. The troubled loan must have originated no later than Jan. 1, 2008, and be on the borrower's primary residence. And the borrower's income must be verified.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080730/ap_on_bi_ge/mortgage_relief_q_a

[UpInArms]

15. Devil in the details - The hidden tax traps in the housing-rescue bill

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hidden-tax-traps-housing-rescue-bill/story.aspx?guid=%7BB80D9F9E%2D86FF%2D4E22%2D84D4%2D565FCD59BA18%7D&dist=TNMostRead

1. Tax credit for new homeowners
First, we have a $7,500 credit for new homeowners that's not really a credit. It's a loan. Those who qualify to receive this credit will receive 10% of the purchase price of their home -- up to $7,500, in the first year. Then they will repay the loan over a 15-year period, starting in the second year after the taxable year in which the house is purchased.

In other words, if you bought a home in August 2008, you start paying back 6.667% of the original credit on your 2010 tax return. This credit applies to purchases of new homes on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009.

The good news:

This is a refundable credit. That means, even if your total tax liability is zero, you can file to get this money directly from IRS.

Although this is a loan, it's a zero-percent loan.

Bonus: If you buy the home in 2009, before July 1, 2009, you can make an election to report the purchase on your 2008 tax return and get the refund a year early.

The bad news:

Mark Luscombe, principal tax analyst for CCH, a Wolters Kluwer business, points out that people who normally don't have to file tax returns will need to start filing tax returns just to pay the credit back. That will affect seniors living on modest fixed incomes and Social Security.

If you forget to pay it back? Well, the bill doesn't include any specific penalties. But all of IRS's usual non-filing and non-payment penalties will apply. Expect IRS computers to track this and to issue notices for unfilled returns.

If you sell the house in less than 15 years, you will have to repay the rest of the credit immediately. This requirement is waived if the owner dies. There are special provisions when the house is sold due to divorces or other emergencies.

[DemReadingDU]

56. This is too confusing to most people

How many people is this housing bill really going to help?

[Hugin]

59. Get elected or own a home?

Please be specific. However, if * signed it, it can't be good for the latter.

[ozymandius]

9. Deutsche Bank 2Q net profit down 64 percent

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Deutsche Bank AG's net profit fell 64 percent in the second quarter as financial market turbulence from the U.S. credit crisis led to euro2.3 billion in writedowns, the bank said Thursday.

Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest, said net profit in the April through June period fell to euro645 million ($1 billion) from euro1.8 billion in the second quarter of 2007.

Total net revenues were down 39 percent to euro5.4 billion ($8.42 billion) from euro8.8 billion a year ago, the Frankfurt-based bank said.

.....

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h3UjNjiOHvJl9vxsSb_y8MIvKMBwD928PO080

[ozymandius]

18. Deutsche Bank writedowns swell beyond $11 billion

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank AG announced fresh writedowns on Thursday, taking its bill from the global financial crisis beyond $11 billion.

Germany's flagship financier had originally been seen as one of the few to emerge unscathed from the crisis, but as the problems on global markets continue Deutsche Bank is being sucked ever deeper into trouble.

.....

Its bill from the turmoil, while modest compared to Swiss rival UBS AG, has overtaken that of its Zurich-based competitor Credit Suisse Group AG, which has made about $8 billion of writedowns.

The extra damage in the second quarter, however, had been broadly expected and Deutsche's shares were just 0.4 percent lower at 3:24 a.m. EDT, in line with European rivals.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSL166792520080731

[ozymandius]

10. House Votes to Regulate Tobacco as a Drug

Decades after the surgeon general first warned that cigarettes were a health hazard, the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved legislation on Wednesday that would for the first time give the Food and Drug Administration the power to regulate tobacco products.

Citing the long history of warnings about the dangers of smoking, Representative John D. Dingell, chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, said that it was hard to believe that the federal government had not yet regulated the tobacco industry.

.....

The White House has signaled its opposition to the bill. And while the legislation has strong support in the Senate, which could take up the measure this fall, it is not clear whether the bill has a veto-proof majority there.

.....

The bill specifically states that the F.D.A.’s new powers would stop short of the ability to order the elimination of nicotine from tobacco products or place an outright ban on all tobacco products.

But the agency could reduce nicotine to nonaddictive levels if it determined that doing so would benefit public health. The F.D.A. could also require changes in tobacco products, like the reduction or elimination of other harmful ingredients.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/washington/31tobacco.html?ref=us

[Demeter]

126. Well, Isn't That Highly Irregular?

Usually, a drug is supposed to have some "health benefit". I've never heard any scientific claims that tobacco improves a person's health.

It's illegal drugs that are supposedly harmful mentally or physically or both. So, will tobacco become an illegal drug?

It would be fitting, if only 10 years (or really 50 years) too late for my mother, aunt and uncle, all of whom died of smoking related illness....

[UpInArms]

11. Are you feeling better, economically?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/your-personal-consumer-confidence-up/story.aspx?guid=%7B7A2BD7C2%2D9577%2D449C%2D9CDD%2D97C9FC83CC3A%7D

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Stimulus checks are nearly all sent and mostly spent, and still the economy seems mired in the doldrums as higher costs for gasoline, food and credit -- and nearly everything else -- put the bite on consumers.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday, though, that consumer confidence rose just the tiniest bit to 51.9 in July vs. June's 51.0. What gives?

Conference Board Director Lynn Franco said the change could be a pause or it could be a turning point, "but one month does not a trend make." And she notes, "From a historical perspective this is still an exceptionally low reading."

Still, Wall Street responded by pushing the markets higher, oil lower and strengthening the dollar. The confidence number itself seems to have boosted confidence, at least among financial professionals.

But what's changed for the consumer? MarketWatch wants to know how you spent your stimulus check and what you're feeling about what's going on in this economy and in your family financial situation.

...more...

[ozymandius]

12. Google considering venture capital arm: report

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google Inc is considering setting up its own venture capital investment arm, the Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday, citing several people briefed on the discussions.

...

A source familiar with the company's thinking told Reuters that any decision to move ahead with a venture capital unit was in very preliminary stages and that no firm decisions had been taken.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUKN3047363220080731

[UpInArms]

13. Visa quarterly net income climbs 41% - Net revenue reaches $1.6 billion as transaction fees rise

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/visa-reports-41-increase-quarterly/story.aspx?guid=%7B5AAC623D%2D6FD1%2D4B91%2DAA67%2D500EEF63D068%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Visa Inc. reported a 41% jump in quarterly net income late Wednesday as the payment-processing giant continued to benefit from increased use of debit cards and other plastic.

The company said fiscal third-quarter net income came in at $422 million, or 51 cents per Class A share, vs. $299 million a year earlier. Visa was a private company a year ago, so it didn't have publicly traded shares.

Adjusting for certain costs from litigation and other issues, net income was $457 million, or 59 cents per Class A common share, in the latest quarter, the company said.

Visa (V: 78.45, +2.48, +3.3%) was expected to make 48 cents a share, according to a survey of 19 analysts by FactSet Research.

Visa shares advanced 1.5% to $79.60 during after-hours trading on Wednesday. The stock has surged since the company sold shares at $44 each in a huge initial public offering in March.

Visa processes payments on debit cards and other types of payment cards and charges fees for these services. Unlike credit card companies, it doesn't lend money to anyone. That means it hasn't suffered as the global credit crunch begins to dent consumers' ability to repay debt.

...more...

[ozymandius]

14. SEC plans broader rules to tackle naked short selling

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is working on broader rules to tackle so-called naked short selling as the regulator tries to protect investors from what it calls "distort and short artists."

Late Tuesday, the SEC extended an emergency order mandating that all short sales of shares in 19 important financial-services firms be subject to a "pre-borrow" requirement. The order was set to expire on Monday but will now run until just before midnight on Aug. 12.

The order won't be extended after that, but the SEC said it will quickly move to come up with longer-term, broader rules to tackle naked shorting.

.....

To be sure, SEC Chairman Cox announced plans for the order almost a week before it kicked in. Some experts say the expectation that short selling of these stocks might become harder in the future may have triggered a strong rally in the wake of his comments.

Shares of Fannie, Freddie and Lehman jumped 31%, 19% and 32%, respectively, during the week Cox first announced the SEC's plans for an emergency order.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sec-plans-broader-rules-tackle/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6CEB375-2F66-46CC-A885-6216900AD86F%7D&dist=msr_1

[ozymandius]

16. Court to review overturning of Nacchio conviction

DENVER (Reuters) - A federal appeals court said on Wednesday it will reconsider its decision overturning the insider trading conviction of former Qwest Communications International Inc Chief Executive Joseph Nacchio.

Nine judges on the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals granted a request from prosecutors for all of them to rehear Nacchio's appeal, which a three-judge panel of the court had decided 2-1 in Nacchio's favor on March 17.

.....

The telecom ex-CEO was convicted of illegally selling $52 million worth of stock in 2001 after, prosecutors alleged, company insiders warned him Qwest could not meet its financial targets.

The two judges who overturned the conviction concluded Nacchio did not get a fair trial because the trial judge improperly barred testimony from an expert witness the defense considered key to its case.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN3040456120080730

[UpInArms]

17. ADP quarterly profit rises to 45 cents a share

who would buy this crappy product that is never right and always prints bogus numbers? :think:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/adp-quarterly-profit-rises-45/story.aspx?guid=%7BCA34AA1D%2DC0D0%2D4A69%2DA805%2D3F517412C30B%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP: 41.57, +1.02, +2.5%) said Thursday its second-quarter profit totaled $234 million, or 45 cents a share, from $195 million, or 35 cents a share, in the same quarter a year before. Analysts had expected adjusted earnings on average of 42 a share, according to a FactSet Research survey. Revenue for the quarter was $2.21 billion compared to $2.00 billion in the year-ago period. "For fiscal 2009, we are assuming no change in the current economic environment. As a result, we are forecasting revenue growth of 7% to 8%, and diluted earning per share growth of 10% to 14%," the company said.

[Demeter]

127. BushCo, Of Course! And All the Good Little BushBots

FEMA is a preferred customer, no doubt.

[UpInArms]

19. Guaranty Financial posts Q2 loss; cuts 5 pct jobs

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG4849420080731?sp=true

July 31 (Reuters) - Guaranty Financial Group Inc (GFG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) posted a huge loss in the second quarter, hurt by mounting provision for bad loans and a charge related to deferred tax, and said it reduced its workforce by 5 percent.

The company, which was spun off by Temple-Inland Inc (TIN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) last year, posted a quarterly loss of $85 million, or $2.24 a share, compared with a profit of $24 million, a year earlier.

Guaranty's loss widened more than eight-fold, or by $75 million, sequentially.

The latest quarterly results include a charge of $46 million due to a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets, the company, which has savings and loan banks in Texas and California, said.

The company also said it will terminate its previously announced rights offering in light of the recently closed private placement transactions.

The company said it paid $3 million in severance costs due to the elimination of 135 jobs during the quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. GMAC posts $2.48 billion loss

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3132535020080731

NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - Finance company GMAC posted a $2.48 billion second-quarter loss on Thursday, hurt by write-downs of vehicle leases and mounting losses at its mortgage lending unit.

"A soft economic environment and continued volatility in the mortgage and credit markets have significantly affected results," Chief Executive Alvaro de Molina said. "Higher fuel prices and weaker consumer credit prove to be headwinds."

The loss compared with a profit of $293 million a year earlier. Results included a $1.86 billion loss at Residential Capital LLC, the mortgage unit's seventh straight quarterly loss, and a $717 million loss in auto finance.

GMAC's results will hurt those of General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which kept a 49 percent stake in GMAC after selling the rest in 2006 to private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP . GM is scheduled to report quarterly results on Friday.

Results included a $716 million write-down of vehicle leases, reflecting a big decline in demand for and prices of used trucks and SUVs in the United States and Canada. GMAC said it ended June with $32.8 billion of leases on its books.

...more...

[janetblond]

27. Record Deficit expected in 2009

Obama better start talking ECONOMICS so the repukes don't BLAME HIM for this $#!T!!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-07-27-deficit_N.htm

[DemReadingDU]

28. Bair Says IndyMac `Unattractive' to a Potential Buyer

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said IndyMac Bancorp Inc.'s high-risk lending and mortgage losses make it ``unattractive'' and leave the agency needing to strengthen the firm to sell it.

IndyMac's reliance on large deposits arranged by brokers on behalf of their customers and lack of a strong ``core deposit base'' also limit its appeal, Bair, 54, said today in an interview to be broadcast this weekend on Bloomberg Television's ``Conversations with Judy Woodruff.''

``There are a number of things about this institution that, to be honest with you, make it unattractive to a potential purchaser,'' Bair said.

The FDIC took over the Pasadena, California-based lender July 11 and is running a successor institution called IndyMac Federal Bank FSB while seeking a buyer for the failed bank's assets. IndyMac became the third-largest federally insured institution to be seized by U.S. regulators after a run by depositors depleted its cash.

``What we're trying to do now is do what we can to strengthen it, strengthen the asset quality, strengthen the servicing portfolio, so we can sell it off and get a better value, hopefully,'' Bair said.

Bair said July 14 the agency would suspend foreclosures on $15 billion in IndyMac loans to see if they can be modified. The FDIC may take advantage of the housing measure President George W. Bush signed into law today, which includes a program to offer government insurance on some refinanced loans.

``We may be using it ourselves to get some of these loans refinanced into affordable mortgages,'' Bair said.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGrtpwcNNDSU&refer=home

[Demeter]

128. The "Greater Fool Theory" Sustains a Large Portion of the Housing Market

and this is the quintessential example of it.

[DemReadingDU]

30. Fed Loans to Failed Banks Made Easier by Fannie-Freddie Rescue

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will be able to lend more easily to failed banks under government control because of a provision in legislation that bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In the rescue signed into law by President George W. Bush yesterday, the Fed will no longer have to pay penalties on loans it makes to institutions taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The measure may mean more use of the central bank's balance sheet to prop up the U.S. financial system, after the Fed began lending to investment banks in March, analysts said. The FDIC has taken over seven banks this year, with 90 on a watch-list of troubled firms as lenders are hit by the surge in credit losses.

``We are pushing forward the line on what the government will backstop, and what the Federal Reserve will backstop,'' said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division who is now at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Fed officials yesterday also extended their two lending programs to Wall Street through January, after judging that markets are still ``fragile.''

The Federal Reserve Act's Rule 10B penalizes the Fed for loans to undercapitalized institutions exceeding specific time periods. The original provision was aimed at preventing the central bank from keeping failing banks open.

edit to add this paragraph:
The exemption in the new law, which was requested by the FDIC without objection by the Fed's Board of Governors, was aimed at making clear that once banks are taken over by the FDIC, capital rules no longer apply because they are effectively owned, operated and in liquidation by the government.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYF8KI4BQb3w&refer=home

[DemReadingDU]

40. nakedcapitalism explanation

7/31/08
Not only are we getting bailouts, we are now getting Chinese puzzle box bailouts, with new tricks nestled inside other vehicles. Maybe we should quit pretending and just give the American Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors blank checks from the Treasury Department. We might as well be straightforward about what is happening.

The effect of the new legislation is to end penalties for Fed loans extending beyond a certain time limit to failed banks. The original purpose was to keep the central bank from keeping institutions that ought to be shuttered open. Think there's any risk that might happen? But the practical effect is that this appears to be a backdoor way to shore up the FDIC.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/housing-bailout-bill-also-eased-having.html

[Demeter]

129. I've Got a Better Idea--Free Housing

You pay the bills, and it's yours, mortgage free. But if you miss a tax bill--on the street you go!

[DemReadingDU]

31. Whitney: Aussie bank's write-offs signal doom for Wall Street

7/30/08 Apocalypse Down-under: Aussie bank's write-offs signal doom for Wall Street
By Mike Whitney

some snippets...

The scariest news of the week comes from down-under, where the National Australia Bank (NAB) announced it would "slash a £400m bond sale by two thirds. The retreat comes days after the Melbourne lender shocked the markets by announcing a 90pc write-down on its £550m holdings of US mortgage debt, an admission that it AAA-rated securities are virtually worthless....The decision by National Australia Bank to make drastic provisions on its US mortgage debt could have ramifications in the US itself. It opted for a 100pc write-off on a clutch of "senior strips" of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) worth £450m - even though they were all rated AAA.

This is a huge story with grave implications for America's struggling banking system. No wonder the establishment media is avoiding it like the plague. If AAA rated CDOs are worthless, then some of the biggest financial institutions in the country will be packed off to the boneyard feet-first.

Tuesday's "sucker rally" in the stock market was just the convulsive writhing of a dying bull. It won't last. Once the bad news sinks in; investors will pull up stakes, equities will fall, and banks will crumble. The big-hand just inched a little closer to midnight.

more...
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20385.htm

[ozymandius]

34. If AAA rated CDOs are worthless

they will be shuffled away to the second- and third-tier asset category where they can be hidden from public scrutiny. But what if these institutions need these AAA rated assets for their check kiting and ponzi schemes? That's where the boneyard scenario will be met, IMHO.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

46. You know, Mike Whitney has written some good things...

And we have linked to his stories many times at World News Trust, but really, he comes off like an apocalyptic street ranter sometimes. Like the above.

[Tace]

71. It's Part Of Why I Don't Run His Stuff All The Time

It's often sensationalistic, and I don't like being sensationalistic about finance.

[kineneb]

92. true, but he has been correct overall

He was writting about last summer's meltdown at least 6 months before it happened. I always read him with a grain of salt, but his predictions tend to square with far more "mainstream" financial writers like Mish and Noural Roubani.

[Hugin]

49. Odd how we didn't hear anything about that.

Very odd.

Someone somewhere thinks their portfolios of CDOs are basically worth the salvage value of the paper used to
print them even though they're rated AAA and not a peep.

[Demeter]

130. Just Two Solid Days of Pumping Up the Dow by 600 points

I'd suspect somebody had an inkling of what was coming, and planned ahead....

[UpInArms]

133. "NAB's announcement came after a shocking Thursday night on Wall Street"

it appears that this came out last week during the night and the US media ignored it :shrug:

NAB’s $1b write-down hammers bank revival

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=3&ContentID=87185

National Australia Bank has shocked investors by saying it may lose 90 per cent of the value of its US mortgagebacked investments — worth more than $1 billion — and warning that the battered US housing market is poised to deteriorate further.

In a horror day, the bank’s shares closed down an extraordinary 13.5 per cent, it confirmed its earnings would be hit by almost $600 million and it faced criticism over conducting an $850 million bond issue the week before the announcement.

“We believe on the basis of detailed analysis that significant loss is now inevitable, and a worse-case provision necessary,” NAB chief executive John Stewart said.

The Michael Chaney-chaired NAB made a provision for as much as 90 per cent of the value of its portfolio of collatorised debt obligations (CDOs), most of which were derived from US mortgages and rated AAA. NAB had already flagged $181 million in losses, increasing this yesterday by $830 million to $1.011billion.

NAB still holds a $4.5 billion debt portfolio of mostly European and US corporate loans. Mr Stewart said NAB’s capital base remained sound and its rural US subsidiary, Great Western, had only a small mortgage portfolio and was performing as expected.

NAB may be the first bank in the world to almost completely mark down the value of its US mortgagebacked CDOs. “I’m not aware of any major bank organisation in the world that has (made a provision for its) CDOs to 10 per cent,” Peter Quinton, head of research at Bell Potter Securities, said. “This could have some ricochet globally.”

...more...

(edited because of stupid glyphs in the title)

[UpInArms]

132. National Australia Bank Takes Additional $795 Million Writedown on CDOs

http://www.topix.com/com/nab/2008/07/national-australia-bank-takes-additional-795-million-writedown-on-cdos

National Australia Bank Ltd., the country's biggest by assets, said it will make an additional provision of A$830 million on its portfolio of collateralized debt obligations.

that was the entire article - then there's Bloomberg:

Australian Dollar Posts Weekly Decline as Banking Losses Mount

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aioRnPurRxKE&refer=australia

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell, posting its first weekly loss in more than a month, after National Australia Bank Ltd. set aside more funds for U.S. credit losses. The New Zealand dollar fell for a second week.

Australia's currency touched a two-week low after the nation's largest bank by assets increased provisions for collateralized debt obligations, raising concern local lenders will write downs more losses from U.S. mortgages than was forecast earlier. New Zealand's dollar traded near its six-month low on speculation the central bank will keep cutting interest rates.

``The news may spur worries that the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis is adversely affecting the Australian banking sector,'' said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. ``This is negative for the Aussie.''

Australia's dollar fell to 95.63 U.S. cents at 5:48 p.m. in New York, from 95.85 cents yesterday and 97.02 cents on July 18. The currency was little changed at 103.11 yen, from 102.88 yesterday and 103.75 yen at the end of last week.

The Aussie declined for a fourth day against the U.S. currency after gold, Australia's third most-valuable commodity export, dropped 3.64 percent this week, heading for a second weekly decline. Exports of metals and other raw materials account for about 17 percent of Australia's economy.

New Zealand's dollar dropped to 74.17 U.S. cents from 74.29 cents yesterday and 76.12 cents on July 18. It earlier touched 74.05 cents, close to its six-month low of 73.87. The currency, known as the kiwi, bought 79.97 yen, from 79.74 yen yesterday and 81.40 yen a week ago.

`Unprecedented'

The Australian currency traded near a one-week low against the yen after Melbourne-based National Australia Bank set aside A$830 million ($796 million) more to cover CDO losses, on top of the A$181 million it reported in March.

The lender said in a statement today its A$1.2 billion portfolio of collateralized debt obligations is now 90 percent provisioned.

``This provision reflects the unprecedented conditions in global credit markets and, in particular, the rapid deterioration in the U.S. housing market,'' John Stewart, the bank's chief executive officer, said in the statement.

...more...

:hide:

[ozymandius]

33. futures and surprised blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.8.

Stock futures continue to indicate a markedly lower start. Oil prices have erased their early losses and now trade with a slight gain. Exxon Mobil (XOM) missed the consensus earnings per share forecast of $2.52 per share, generating just $2.27 per share during the second quarter.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.2.

Futures have taken a turn for the worse. The preliminary reading for second quarter GDP indicates the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%, which is below the widely expected second quarter growth rate of 2.3%, but up from the downwardly revised 0.9% growth rate registered in the first quarter. Personal consumption climbed at a 1.5% rate for the second quarter, missing the 1.7% rate economists forecast as well as the downwardly revised 0.9% posted in the first quarter. Core PCE climbed 2.1% in the face of a 2.0% consensus forecast, but was still below the 2.3% advance in the first quarter. The GDP Price Index climbed 1.1%, although economists projected a 2.4% advance. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 totaled 448,000, which is above the 393,000 that was widely expected. The prior week's claims were revised slighly downward to 404,000.

[ozymandius]

35. futures are even more "surprised"

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.5.

Premarket sentiment is negative ahead of the opening bell. Futures initially indicated an upward start to trading Thursday, but disappointing GDP and jobless claims data pushed participants into a pessimistic mood.

[Hugin]

52. What? Did someone reveal an increase in jobs?

"disappointing GDP and jobless claims data pushed participants into a pessimistic mood."

That seems to be the only way to rain on this upside-down parade they've got going. :eyes:

[Pale Blue Dot]

36. Layoffs 7/31

Lots of big cuts today.

Nissan - TN - 6,000 jobs lost

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Nissan North America Inc. said Wednesday it will offer buyouts to about 6,000 employees at the company’s two Tennessee plants and eliminate a night shift at one plant because rising fuel prices and the economic downturn have slowed sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.

<...>

About 775 employees at the two plants took a buyout offered last year. That package included a $45,000 lump sum payment and $500 for every year of service.
http://terminationdate.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/pink-slip-club-nissan/

GM - nationwide - 5,100 jobs lost (on top of already announced cuts)

DETROIT — General Motors Corp. plans to cut 15 percent of its U.S. and Canadian salaried work force — about 5,100 jobs — by Nov. 1

as part of a plan to slash billions of dollars and help the automaker ride out a slump in U.S. sales.

A GM official declined to confirm the specific numbers but indicated that they were generally accurate.

Word of the cuts came two days before GM plans to release its second-quarter earnings. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are predicting a loss of $2.63 per share amid plummeting truck and sport-utility vehicle sales.
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/07/31/0731bizbriefs.html

Kentucky Schools - 975 jobs lost

Kentucky schools cut 975 jobs and counting.

The cuts are to make up for cuts in the state's two-year budget.

The Kentucky School Boards Association is surveying all of the state's school districts and so far, the cuts include more than 400 teaching jobs and about 520 classified positions.

Salaries take an 80% chunk out of the Perry County School System’s budget and balancing the books meant laying off 48 teachers aides.

“That was detrimental not only to our school system but to the community as well because, small rural community, I mean we know these families, and we know what that means to not have a job, not have health insurance,” Jody Maggard, Perry County Schools Financial Officer, said.
http://www.wkyt.com/news/headlines/26120889.html

Sealed Air - NJ and elsewhere - 1,000 jobs lost

Sealed Air announced plans yesterday to trim its work force by 1,000 jobs as it reported a drop in second-quarter profit because of soaring raw material costs for its protective packaging.

The company said the job reductions would cut across its global operations, and could affect employees at its corporate headquarters in Elmwood Park and a manufacturing plant in Saddle Brook, where it makes Bubble Wrap. About 300 of its 17,000 employees work in New Jersey.

In the United States, Sealed Air will seek job reductions through a voluntary severance program, said Ken Aurizhio, a company spokesman. But if the targeted cuts are not achieved, layoffs could follow. Sealed Air hopes to complete the job reductions by the end of the year.

As part of the restructuring, the company plans to consolidate or close some of its smaller facilities, which executives said would be replaced by newer plants. The Saddle Brook facility is not among those affected, Aurizhio said.
http://www.nj.com/business/ledger/index.ssf?/base/business-10/121747902240810.xml&coll=1

Chowan County, NC - At least 24 jobs lost

The emergency belt-tightening under way in Chowan County to fill a $4.1 million budget shortfall will result in the layoff of part-time and probationary employees, including seven workers in the county Department of Social Services.

County Manager Peter Rascoe said Tuesday that he's instructed all 15 county department heads to "institute a series of layoffs of probationary and part-time employees ... due to the (county's) cash flow challenge."

He confirmed that the proposed layoffs include seven DSS workers.

Some departments might not see layoffs, but most will, he said.

Rascoe didn't know how much the county could save by laying off the seven DSS employees.

He also said it's still unknown how many employees will be laid off, or for how long.
http://www.dailyadvance.com/local/content/news/stories/2008/07/30/0730ChowanFolloRM.html?imw=Y

Align Technology - Santa Clara, CA - 38 jobs lost

On Tuesday the company reported second quarter net income of $4 million, or 6 cents a share, compared to $13.6 million, or 19 cents a share in the same period last year.

Revenue was up slightly to $79.9 million from the year-ago quarter's $76.6 million.

Looking ahead, the company said it expects third quarter revenue from $74 million to $76 million and earnings of 4 cents to 6 cents a share. Analysts had forecast revenue of $80.2 million and earnings of 11 cents a share.

Align said it plans to cut 38 full-time jobs and decrease hiring for the rest of the year. The moves will save it $5 million to $6 million in the second half of the year, the company said.

Align also said it plans to transfer its order operations from Santa Clara to Juarez, Mexico.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2008/07/28/daily49.html

TRW Inc - Winona, MN - 80-90+ jobs lost

TRW Automotive, which employs more than 800 people in Winona, soon will lay off at least 80 employees from its local facility, the corporation has told state officials.

TRW, a major global auto-parts maker, will lay off between 80 and 90 union employees and may lay off other nonunion workers at the Winona facility, according to a notice it sent earlier this month to the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.
The notice indicated only that at least 70 layoffs will occur “soon”; a state official said TRW officials planned to meet with employees Wednesday and today.

A TRW spokesman declined to comment when contacted Wednesday.

TRW, headquartered in Livonia, Mich., employs more than 63,000 workers in 28 countries. The company assembles engine, brake, steering and suspension components for major auto manufacturers, and its North American Body Control Systems division is headquartered in Winona.
http://www.winonadailynews.com/articles/2008/07/31/news/00lead.txt

Mohawk Fine Papers - Hamilton, OH - 27 jobs lost

Jul. 30--HAMILTON -- Recent hikes in city utilities may have been the last straw for Mohawk Fine Papers in its decision to lay off 27 workers.

The paper manufacturer announced it would temporarily lay off the employees after rising utilities and raw material costs as well as poor sales caused the company to lose money. The company employs 185 people.

Mohawk Chief Financial Officer Kevin Richard had twice complained to city council members in recent months about an increase in electric rates.

The increases would cost the company $250,000 annually. The higher rates went into effect March 1.

"The security of employees at the Beckett facility is at risk," Richard warned council members during a meeting on April 9.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2453816~title_Hamilton,-Ohio,-Paper.html

The Idaho press-Tribune - 16 jobs lost

The Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa said Wednesday that it would lay off 16 people.

"These are difficult times, and it is necessary for us, like many other businesses throughout our county and nation, to take a proactive approach," President and Publisher Rick V. Weaver said. "We deeply regret this action, but we really have no other choice."

No one was laid off in the newsroom, but over time, some newsroom positions have not been filled, Managing Editor Vickie Holbrook said. The newspaper has about 150 employees, both part time and full time, Weaver said.

Newspapers across the nation have reduced staffs as the economy has softened and some print advertising has migrated to the Internet. The Idaho Statesman in June announced 16 layoffs and said 22 pressroom workers would lose their jobs when the Statesman starts being printed at the Press-Tribune early next year.
http://www.idahostatesman.com/business/story/456453.html

Imperium - Seattle, WA - ?? jobs lost

At this time last year, Imperium Renewables was riding the clean tech boom with one of the largest venture financing deals in the history of the state and a $345 million initial public offering filing on record with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Politicians, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., regularly showed up at Imperium to tout the company's leadership in the biodiesel field.

Now, word comes that the Seattle biodiesel refiner has laid off a chunk of its corporate staff. The cuts hit last week. A source told the Seattle P-I that only a handful of staffers are left at the corporate office. The massive Grays Harbor County plant, one of the largest biodiesel facilities in the country, continues to operate, according to the source.

But Imperium appears to be a shell of its former self.

Through a spokesman, Imperium Chief Executive John Plaza confirmed the layoffs. But he declined to be interviewed or discuss how many people were let go in the latest shake-up.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/372903_imperium31.html

State of Illinois drug programs - 21 jobs lost

URBANA – Local emergency rooms will likely find more drug addicts and alcoholics in distress at their doors in the wake of Illinois budget cuts that have trickled down to East Central Illinois.

Bruce Suardini, chief executive officer of Prairie Center Health Systems Inc., said at a news conference Wednesday that Thursday will be the last day its detox unit in downtown Champaign will accept new admissions.
Advertisement

That cut is just one of many the Urbana-based agency is making after learning last week that it would lose one-third of its state funding – about $914,200 – due to cuts in the Department of Human Services budget for mental health and substance abuse treatment.

By the end of the week, 21 employees will also be laid off from treatment programs in Danville, Urbana and Champaign, Suardini said. That represents about a fourth of the agency's staff.
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2008/07/30/state_drug-funding_budget_cuts_mean_layoffs_program_cuts

Mercury Co. - CA, TX, AZ - thousands of jobs lost

Financial Title Co. has shut its doors across the state as part of a closure of multiple offices and title companies by its parent, Mercury Cos. of Colorado.

The decision by the largest real-estate title agent in Silicon Valley follows a move by Mercury's lenders to pull their line of credit after Mercury failed to meet loan requirements, according to an e-mail from Jim Hilbun, president of United Title of Texas. Unite Title is also owned by Mercury.

"Mercury is closing all of its companies outside of Colorado, which includes Arizona, California, Oregon and Nevada," Hilbun told employees.

Examiners representing the California Department of Insurance, which regulates and polices title-policy underwriters and agents, were on hand at all 57 Financial Title offices in the state Wednesday to ensure that escrow funds were properly handled and not stolen or lost, said Darrel Ng, press secretary for the agency.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2008/07/28/daily50.html

[DemReadingDU]

58. Thanks for compiling this list every day

One place to see major layoffs occurring. Unfortunately, I think the list will be getting longer

:(

[ozymandius]

67. Thanks from me too.

This has been a sobering, important list of information.

[Pale Blue Dot]

90. You guys do so much that I just wanted to contribute something - anything.

I'm glad I found my niche.

[Pale Blue Dot]

62. Boone Hospital - Columbia, MO - 48 jobs lost

COLUMBIA, MO (AP) -- Four dozen workers at a mid-Missouri hospital will lose their jobs before labor day.

Boone Hospital in Columbia is trimming its workforce by roughly 48 positions.

They had earlier indicated as many as sixty layoffs would occur.

Hospital Board Chairman Bob McDavid says the hospital staff got the word yesterday afternoon.

http://www.krcg.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=167678

[Pale Blue Dot]

70. Analyst predicts 3,125 more job cuts at Dell; raises rating on stock

Dell (DELL) shares are higher today after Cowen analyst Louis Miscioscia raised his rating on the stock to Outperform from Neutral. He also upped his January 2009 FY EPS estimate on the company to $1.70 from $1.56; for FY 2010 he goes to $2.07 from $1.80.

Miscioscia says Dell is having success bringing down operating expenses, while also gaining market share and growing revenues in the consumer, small and medium business and emerging markets segments. He says the company’s April announcement of plans to cut 3,700 jobs should drive $65 million in quarterly operating expenses savings. He expects another 1,900 job cuts in the July quarter, which would add another $33 million in quarterly savings. And he sees a further 2,225 job cuts by the beginning of FY 2010.

Meanwhile, he notes that Dell is in the process of launching a new line of consumer PCs “which should greatly help improve the marginally profitable retail business.” On the corporate side, he writes, “the new E-series notebooks will provide a complete product refresh, the first in years and should increase consumer interest and reduce product cost.”

Dell shares are up $1.01, or 4.25%, to $25.01.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/07/31/dell-cowen-upgrades-raises-ests-sees-more-job-cuts/

More great news!!

:grr:

[Tansy_Gold]

86. My thanks, too, Finnfan

Most sobering of all are the notices of lay-offs in what should be considered "untouchable" categories: health care/hospitals, schools, municipal services.

Another tiny indication of hard times ahead:

Our silly community out here in the far east fringes of Phoenix has two local weekly newspapers. In just the two years since I moved from the far west fringes, I've seen the volume of newsprint in these two rags decrease to where they are only half their former size. Since there's no less news, this has to be attributable to loss of advertising revenue. Yesterday I noticed that the obituaries, which formerly took up a good half-page with pictures and bios and names of surviving family members were now little tiny bits tucked into an inside corner. Along with these inconspicuous notes was the announcement that henceforth, obituaries will only be run if paid for at the rate of $15/column inch.


Tansy Gold

[Pale Blue Dot]

89. Those "untouchable" catagories.

That has been equally eye-opening for me, as I work in one and my wife works in another. I thought we were both recession-proof, but if anything happens to the insurance business (our city's livelihood) we could both be in trouble. That's one of the reason my skin is so thin when someone on this site says that I "want" the economy to fail.

[Tansy_Gold]

98. About "wanting" the economy to fail

I understand, Finnfan, I do.

My daughter is a speech pathologist in a public school system. Her husband is a teacher in another public school system.

My daughter-in-law is a nurse. My son is in aerospace, potentially at risk.

I'm semi-retired, working freelance for the insurance industry, hoping there'll still be social security when i'm eligible in another few months.

All dependent on the economy --- but then we ALL are.

That said, I don't think it's so much a matter of wanted the economy to fail as it is an acknowledgement of the fact that SOME kind of "failure" is going to be necessary because the economy is essentially living on borrowed time, as well as borrowed money.

And short of catastrophic failure, what's the solution? How do we rein in the corporations that have sucked up all the real wealth? How do we redistribute the 50% of the nation's wealth that's in the hands of .5% of the population (or whatever the actual figures are)? Can it be accomplished without some kind of revolution? Are those people going to voluntarily give up their wealth? Are those who have stock in the health insurance companies and the for-profit hospitals and clinics and the for-profit drug manufacturers going to give up their wealth, their ownership, their profits and dividends?

If we simply postpone the inevitable, are we saying "not in my lifetime but let my kids and grandkids or your kids and grandkids pay the bill"? Are we then not very much different from the looters and shruggers we denounce?

I said to BF last night that there would probably be a lot of people who physically/financially couldn't survive an Atlas Shrugged style collapse of the world economy, but that there would also be a lot who couldn't psychologically survive even something far short of that. The 82-year-old manager of that small credit union in Connecticut would be an example, but so too might be the Knoxville shooter who couldn't deal with joblessness and a cutback in his foodstamps. I have a friend who at 78 still works a full-time retail job because he can't bear the thought of retirement and not doing anything. He's healthy and active and bright -- but the idea of not working, of having to occupy himself all day is terrifying to him.

Could we install an administration -- white house executive branch, congress, and a supportive judiciary -- that would reverse the trends of the past, say, 30 years, since Reagan and the union-busting and the Glass-Steagall abolition, etc, etc., etc.? Would the general population stand still to see the Wal-Mart shelves suddenly bare of tons of Chinese plastic crap? Could we revert to a nostalgia-based 50s-style economy where we lived within our means? Could we do without a lot of the things we take for granted, like 50 pair of shoes in the closet, half of them worn once and forgotten as styles changed?

Could we go back to living in smaller houses, driving smaller cars and driving them less, vacationing locally, and so on? I think most DUers would enthusiastically say YES! but I'm not sure the rest of the country or the rest of the world would so eagerly join in. I suspect there would be enormous resistance -- unless there were mitigating factors that FORCED a change.

So in that sense, I don't think it's a real desire to see the collapse but more an acceptance of the inevitability of catastrophe even while at the same time hoping it can be averted. And maybe that accounts in part, too, for our own often schizoid attitude of doom and gloom one day, irrational optimism the next.

Or at least that's my excuse! :evilgrin:


Tansy Gold, hoping but not praying

[DemReadingDU]

105. It would be nice to redistribute the wealth, but

I think that wealth has already been transferred to foreign super-secret bank accounts. The rest of us will try to make do as best as we can, form tighter bonds with family friends and community, share and barter. It will be a much different economy, that's for sure.

[Tansy_Gold]

116. Well, I'm thinking more along the lines of that "wealth" in

foreign, secret, etc. accounts as being completely worthless in the event of a real "revolution." The real wealth is in the physical assets -- property, homes, furniture, cars, factories, equipment, mines, farms, ships, etc. They can't put that in a foreign bank account.

And maybe this is why I think many of us, even the doomiest and gloomiest of us here on DU, retain sufficient hope that a cataclysmic collapse will NOT happen. If the U.S. were a geographically small country -- think late 19th C. Britain or 17th C. Holland or 16th C. Spain -- the collapse of an economic empire in the core country had relatively little impact on the rest of the empire, which could easily revert to self-sufficiency, as indeed could the home country. The population was only a small percentage of the whole and was not essential to the functioning of the rest of the empire.

In contrast, the U.S. economy is so big in terms of a percentage of the global economy and also in terms of its impact on all the other economies that to freeze U.S. assets would be almost impossible and economically unfeasible. In other words, if we had a violent revolution, like 1917 Russia or 1979 Iran, some of our "royalty" would escape with some assets, but those assets would ultimately be tied right back to the U.S. and the new government's willingness to honor them. Of course, if our exiles had established safe havens elsewhere, well stocked with local currencies and moveable wealth, that would be out of our reach. But if they have bank accounts of dollars, all our revolutionary government would have to do is say "Sorry, Charlie. We're not honoring those deposits. We have a new monetary system and all those old dollars are no good."

Obviously, it's much more complex than that, but it comes down to the same thing. The value of all your stock options is $0. Your CDOs, $0. Your CDSes, $0. You wanna convert your "old" dollars in that Cayman bank to "new" revo-dollars? Fine, that'll cost you 50% in conversion taxes. Or 75%. Or 95%. Because we're not talking about real, physical, paper money dollars; it's all electronic, and if the U.S. government won't honor the deposits, they're worthless.

Again, on a small scale, it's not inconceivable, but on the scale of a multi-trillion dollar economy, it's mind-boggling. And if it can't be rescued, with whatever relatively minor disruptions and inconveniences that would entail, then I think catastrophe is the inevitable and unavoidable alternative.

My faith in the American populace's willingness to tighten its collective belt and make the difficult choices varies from day to day. Today I'm not so optimistic.


Tansy Gold, who does have good days but today ain't one of 'em

[DemReadingDU]

134. The toxic wealth has already been exchanged for good wealth

I think that's why the Treasury/Fed opened up these slick innovative schemes. So that the super wealthy were already able to exchange their toxic securities for good securities. I think that's why the market has these sucker rallies to ensure the remaining toxic stuff has been removed from the wealthy portfolios. Once Paulson/Bernanke have ensured their cronies have their good wealth stashed in super secret accounts, the rest of the clueless world will be left holding the empty bag of worthless mutual funds, bonds, pensions.

I want to be hopeful, that those who hold the empty bags will unite for the common good of Americans. But most of us have not live thru anything like this before. It's anybody's guess how this will turn out.

[ozymandius]

123. Owning too much stuff is fueling the new economy.

We at Chez Ozymandius satisfy our shopping needs by looking on Ebay, craigslist, garage sales and thrift/consignment stores.

[Juneboarder]

101. I am in the same boat...

I definitely think a correction needs to take place for us to start moving foward again in our country, but at the same time I am scared as all hell for any type of correction. I have my first child on the way within the week here, wife's about to go on maternity leave and I'm working four jobs just to make sure we have money to cover us for a few months... any kind of kink in the system and who knows what'll happen... definitely not for the immediate better.

[Pale Blue Dot]

119. Schwarzenegger did it - 22,000 jobs lost in California

And 200,000 more reduced to minimum wage. Now will this be the exception, or the rule?

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, one month into a state budget impasse, today ordered the layoffs of thousands of state workers and steep pay cuts for most other state employees in an effort to save cash as California faces a multibillion-dollar budget deficit.

The state has been without a budget since the current fiscal year began July 1, while the governor and the Democrat-controlled Legislature work to come up with a spending plan to fill a $17.2 billion gap that would include $2 billion in reserves.

"Today I am exercising my executive authority to avoid a full-blown crisis and keep our state moving forward," said the governor, whose move was expected after The Chronicle and other news outlets obtained a copy of the order last week. "This is not an action I take lightly, but we do not have a budget, and as governor, I have a responsibility to make sure our state has enough money to pay its bills."

Cutting the pay of about 200,000 state workers to the federal minium wage of $6.55 an hour would save California as much as $1.2 billion a month, the governor's office said. Such workers would get regular pay plus back pay once a new budget is approved.

The layoffs of nearly 22,000 temporary, seasonal and student workers would save the state as much as $28.5 million a month, the governor's office added. It is not clear whether workers laid off would be rehired when a new budget is enacted.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/31/BAEP122S2P.DTL&tsp=1

[Demeter]

131. Will There Be Anyone Working Outside of Government By Christmas?

[ozymandius]

37. It's 9:35. Markets are ready to take people's money.

Dow 11,482.97 Down 100.72 (0.87%)
Nasdaq 2,315.79 Down 13.93 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,274.35 Down 9.91 (0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 3.96% Down 0.088
NYSE Volume 116,985,742.188
Nasdaq Volume 81,631,382.812

[Pale Blue Dot]

38. Just in case you thought credit unions were safe...

4 have failed in the past month, according to the National Credit Union Administration's website.

New London Security FCU Closes

July 28, 2008, Alexandria, Va. -- The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) announces that the agency placed New London Security Federal Credit Union of New London, Connecticut, into liquidation today.

NCUA’s Asset Management and Assistance Center will issue checks to individuals holding verified share accounts in the New London Security Federal Credit Union. Through NCUA’s National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, credit union members’ deposits are insured to at least $100,000 per account.

NCUA made the decision to liquidate New London Security Federal Credit Union and discontinue its independent operations after determining that the credit union is insolvent. It has no prospects for restoring viable operations.

At the time of liquidation, the credit union, chartered in 1936, served 365 residents of the New London, Connecticut area, and had reported assets of $12.7 million.
http://www.ncua.gov/news/press_releases/2008/MR08-0728.htm

Meriden F.A. Federal Credit Union Closes

July 16, 2008, Alexandria, Va. -- The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) placed Meriden F. A. Federal Credit Union of Meriden, Connecticut, into liquidation today.

The NCUA Asset Management and Assistance Center will issue checks to individuals holding verified share accounts in the Meriden F. A. Federal Credit Union within one week. Through the NCUA National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, credit union members’ deposits are insured to at least $100,000 on regular accounts and $250,000 on certain retirement accounts.

NCUA made the decision to liquidate Meriden F. A. Federal Credit Union and discontinue its independent operations after determining that the credit union is insolvent. It has no prospects for restoring viable operations. At the time of liquidation, the credit union served 206 members and had assets of approximately $337,968.
http://www.ncua.gov/news/press_releases/2008/MR08-0716.htm

NCUA Liquidates Sterlent and Cal State 9 Credit Unions

July 1, 2008 Alexandria, Virginia - The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) today liquidated two state chartered California credit unions, Sterlent Credit Union of Pleasanton and Cal State 9 Credit Union of Concord. Patelco Credit Union purchased assets and assumed most shares of both institutions.

In the case of Sterlent Credit Union, the California Department of Financial Institutions agreed that the NCUA would serve as liquidating agent of Sterlent. Immediately following the issuance of the order, NCUA liquidated Sterlent and entered into an agreement with Patelco Credit Union to sell certain assets and liabilities of Sterlent to Patelco. At the time of liquidation, Sterlent Credit Union had approximately $94.6 million in assets. Sterlent was established in 1936 as EBTEL Federal Credit Union and became a California state chartered credit union in 2002.

The Cal State 9 Credit Union liquidation and purchase and assumption by Patelco Credit Union had been announced May 22, and was completed today. Cal State 9 had been operating under NCUA conservatorship since November 2007. Chartered in 1948, Cal State 9 was originally chartered to serve University of California employees. It had assets of $339 million and served nearly 29,000 members.
http://www.ncua.gov/news/press_releases/2008/MA08-0701.htm

[Hugin]

39. Yes, there are some CUINOs out there...

I've found they're usually only in business as a means of tapping into the overall credibility Credit Unions have managed to develop over the years.

Despicable practice.

[DemReadingDU]

60. My credit union has been on a building spree

Several new locations have been built around our city. Beautiful buildings, brick. Very nice, good reputation.

On one hand it's nice to see their growth, but on the other hand, does this indicate that they over-extended themselves in this economy?

:shrug:

[Hugin]

61. Interesting question...

I bet the answer would lie in whether the expansion is into 'established' areas or not.

Hopefully, they have a planner who knows the demographic make-up of their customers and isn't going fishing
for new ones.

[DemReadingDU]

68. They are free-standing buildings

Previously, a branch was an office in a shopping center.

The new buildings are very nice, and they are always busy. Much busier than my bank.

[Hugin]

73. Do their quarterly reports say if the new property is owned by the...

Credit Union (actually due to your membership, you) or if they are leasing? They should.

Maybe you can check that at their web-site.

Lately, it's been an advantage to stop paying leases in shopping malls and buy outright. Hasn't always been
the case.

Good to hear they're busy.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

50. A short thought on yesterday's energy market spike:

Aug contracts are coming due, and you bet that a lot of folks, especially GoldmanSachs, who has a huge position in physical oil, are doing and saying anything to get that price up.

I really think that it is time for a government investigation of energy market manipulation by GS.

[Hugin]

53. Good point.

Very good.

I'm glad you're updating the Energy Sector. I was looking for something other than a reliance on the Big
Three Market Indexes to observe. They've become so politicized as to lose their power of providing any sort
of insight.

[depakid]

118. Yet predictably, Congress dropped the ball yesterday

preferring instead to allow the like of Goldman Sachs to engage in business as usual.

Hence the release of the "analysts" report predicting a 20% jump in crude oil prices.

[AnneD]

69. Our theme today....

I think we are in survival mode here which brings up a conflict. We have had Donna Summers I Will Survive so for a change....I would like to recommend

Staying Alive


Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk,
I'm a woman's man: no time to talk.
Music loud and women warm, I've been kicked around
since I was born
.
And now it's all right. It's OK.
And you may look the other way.
We can try to understand
the New York Time's effect on man.
Whether you're a brother or whether you're a mother,
you're stayin' alive, stayin' alive.
Feel the city breakin' and everybody shakin',
and we're stayin' alive, stayin' alive.
Ah, ha, ha, ha, stayin' alive, stayin' alive.
Ah, ha, ha, ha, stayin' alive.

Well now, I get low and I get high,
and if I can't get either, I really try.
Got the wings of heaven on my shoes.
I'm a dancin' man and I just can't lose.
You know it's all right. It's OK.
I'll live to see another day.

chorus


Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk,
I'm a woman's man: no time to talk.
Music loud and women warm, I've been kicked around
since I was born.
And now it's all right. It's OK.
And you may look the other way.

Chorus

So break out the Quiana Shirts, polyester leisure suits, and platform shoes and make your own happiness.

[Hugin]

107. My choice of Interlude Market Mood Mambo today...

Well, actually it may be a Tango.

Is "Delicado" as conducted by Michel Legrand.

I've been on a real Harpsichord binge the past few days and this one is great.

http://www.artistdirect.com/nad/window/media/page/0,,360466-2066405,00.html <--- Listen here, but, beware...
Lots of pop-ups.

"Stayin' Alive" is a good choice too, AnneD. That's what we're all trying to do here. :)

[AnneD]

74. KBR denies blame in electrocutions...

WASHINGTON — Houston-based military contractor KBR Wednesday vigorously denied responsibility for the deaths of at least 16 military personnel known to have been electrocuted in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion.
With soldiers dying while taking a shower, swimming in a pool or operating a car wash, lawmakers have been investigating the problem with faulty wiring in Iraq and KBR's responsibilities as the Army's largest contractor there.
KBR's actions "were not the cause of any of these terrible accidents," company executive Thomas Bruni told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
But House Democrats presented documents they say appear to contradict KBR as to the death of Staff Sgt. Ryan Maseth, 24, of Pittsburgh, who was electrocuted in a shower Jan. 2.

more....

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5916472.html

Nothing would thrill me more than these folks losing all their il gotten gain in lawsuits. Comments are good -after all, sadly they are local.

[AnneD]

75. Less for those back home

A TOTONILCO, MEXICO — Mexicans working in other countries are sending less money home, threatening businesses, stalling construction and choking cash flow to some hamlets where as much as half their populations work in the United States.
Analysts said stepped-up immigration raids and the slowdown in the U.S. economy accounted for the drop in the payments, which many migrants use to sustain families back home.
The payments, or remittances, have fallen about 2 percent this year to $11.6 billion, the first such drop in more than a decade since reliable records have been kept, Mexico's Central Bank said Wednesday.
And the buying power of this money has been battered by the weakening U.S. dollar, which has lost about 8 percent of its value against the Mexican peso so far this year.
In Mexico, businesses that once thrived selling everything from beds to bricks to the families of migrants have laid off workers.

more...

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5916473.html

Tangential evidence that things are as bad as we think.:eyes:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

77. On Prag's note: 11:30ish AM EDT Commodity Market Numbers

I'm a sucker for flattery. ;-)

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 124.25 10:53am ET Down 2.52 (1.99%)
HOQ08.NYM Heating Oil Aug 08 3.4427 10:36am ET Down 0.0776 (2.20%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 9.263 10:38am ET Up 0.015 (0.16%)
PNQ08.NYM Propane Gas Aug 08 1.72 10:52am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBQ08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Aug 08 3.0603 10:30am ET Down 0.0748 (2.39%)

Note the drop in prices, on balance. What this points to is my short thesis above. Goldman jumped in yesterday, on other Mideast news such as Olmert, and released a report that started a one-day upswing. Luckily for the country, it lost it's oomph today as reality set in, as it does in the markets occasionally. I reiterate my call for investigations into Goldman and their shameless attempts at market manipulation, in light of their heavy positions in physical energy commodities.

Grains:

CU08.CBT Corn Sep 08 595.50 11:32am ET Down 6.00 (1.00%)
OU08.CBT Oats Sep 08 385.00 Jul 30 0.00 (0.00%)
RRU08.CBT Rough Rice Sep 08 16.625 Jul 30 0.00 (0.00%)
SMQ08.CBT Soybean Meal Aug 08 377.00 10:31am ET Down 1.60 (0.42%)
BOQ08.CBT Soybean Oil Aug 08 57.96 10:30am ET Down 0.30 (0.51%)
SQ08.CBT Soybeans Aug 08 1,403.00 11:31am ET Up 9.00 (0.65%)

For more news on just about everything, including energy, economics and markets: http://worldnewstrust.com (Shameless Plug Alert)

Soybeans are all over the landscape, going up and down more than a prostitute. The other grains, save Oats, went up yesterday, apparently on the same news that drove energy. As you see, they are going down today as well, as the markets remove the glue bags from their noses.

Metals:

ALQ08.CMX Aluminum Aug 08 1.3525 8:36am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
HGQ08.CMX Copper Aug 08 3.701 11:08am ET Up 0.0215 (0.58%)
ZGQ08.CBT Gold 100 oz. Aug 08 917.10 11:30am ET Up 14.30 (1.58%)
GCQ08.CMX Gold Aug 08 916.40 11:14am ET Up 13.50 (1.50%)
PAU08.NYM Palladium Sep 08 381.50 9:34am ET Up 5.80 (1.54%)
PLU08.NYM Platinum Sep 08 2,040.10 9:11am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
ZIQ08.CBT Silver 5000 oz. Aug 08 17.399 Jul 30 0.00 (0.00%)
SIQ08.CMX Silver Aug 08 17.422 8:36am ET 0.00 (0.00%)

Can someone explain to me the wild movements in gold?

Softs:

CCU08.NYB Cocoa Sep 08 2,844.00 11:20am ET Up 36.00 (1.28%)
KCU08.NYB Coffee Sep 08 137.70 11:20am ET Up 0.15 (0.11%)
CTV08.NYB Cotton Oct 08 71.50 9:59am ET Up 0.10 (0.14%)
LBU08.CME Lumber Sep 08 253.90 11:39am ET Up 6.80 (2.75%)
OJU08.NYB Orange Juice Sep 08 106.20 11:18am ET Down 1.65 (1.53%)
SBV08.NYB Sugar #11 Oct 08 13.51 11:20am ET Up 0.11 (0.82%)
SEU08.NYB Sugar #14 Sep 08 23.50 9:04am ET Down 0.38 (1.59%)

Livestock:

FCQ08.CME Feeder Cattle Aug 08 113.45 11:36am ET Up 0.925 (0.82%)
PBQ08.CME Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 08 70.70 10:33am ET Up 0.70 (1.00%)
LHQ08.CME Lean Hogs Aug 08 79.75 11:41am ET Up 0.875 (1.11%)
LCQ08.CME Live Cattle Aug 08 97.825 11:34am ET Down 0.05 (0.05%)

[Hugin]

110. Is it flattery, if it's sincere?

As the Crown Jewel of the DU:LBN, the SMW scours the web to encourage reliable content and relevant input from the best. (Well, that and there is -no- budget.)






I guess that'll get us some updates tomorrow? :7

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

112. Ahem.

That will necessitate far more than the above.

I may be easy, but I'm not cheap. ;-)

[AnneD]

78. Economic soft porn....

You know its tough when the Fed chairman is moonlighting

I was, to say the least, stunned when I saw the story in today's * section on male models. Not because I care, but because one of the pictures shows a "mature model at Yohji Yamamoto" that appears to be Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Now, I obviously know nothing about fashion -- I thought Yamamoto was the Japanese naval commander during World War II -- but the fashion on display here I'd describe as Princeton Frump or Homeless Academic. Either way, when the Fed Head takes a side job, it can't be a good sign for the economy.


AP
Bernanke at his day job

AP
And taking a turn on the runway

blogs.chron.com/lorensteffy/2008/07/you_know_its_to_1.html

Sorry I haven't mastered the photo paste but this is worth a looksie...:rofl:

[ozymandius]

81. Even worse - he's lost weight. Can Bernanke afford to eat?

Edit: His clothes are hanging off him and his ribs are showing!

[AnneD]

83. Guess he didn't get....

that performance bonus.

[MilesColtrane]

88. And he's had to resort to buying old, patched clothing from Goodwill!

The price of helicopter fuel must be killing him.

[ozymandius]

80. Just before noon: the see-saw continues.

11:55
Dow 11,475.40 Down 108.29 (0.93%)
Nasdaq 2,337.51 Up 7.79 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,276.75 Down 7.51 (0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 3.962% Down 0.086
NYSE Volume 1,705,952,625
Nasdaq Volume 952,785,000

11:30 am : The Dow and the S&P 500 are making moves lower amid broad-based declines. There is no immediate catalyst for the move. The Nasdaq, however, continues to outperform.

Nasdaq component and Internet search giant Google (GOOG 478.10, -4.60) is underperforming fellow components. The firm announced it is planning to add a venture capital arm to its portfolio of businesses. The news has done little to induce buying in its shares.

After hitting a 52-week low earlier this month, shares of Nasdaq holding Starbucks (SBUX 15.04, +0.37) are trading noticeably higher this session. The company announced after yesterday's close it earned $0.16 per share, excluding items, which is below the $0.18 per share that was widely expected. Starbucks also rehashed plans for store closures in the U.S. and international expansion.DJ30 -89.89 NASDAQ +11.11 SP500 -6.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1229/847 mln/1351 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/444 mln/1687

[AnneD]

82. You Know Gas Prices ......

Are High When Texans
Start Driving Golf Carts
Low-Speed Electric Vehicles Catch On;
Peters Family Jaunts in the Land of Giants
By ANA CAMPOY
July 31, 2008; Page A1
HOUSTON -- In the garage where chiropractor Rick Peters once parked his Dodge pickup, two tiny electric cars now sit back-to-back next to his wife's small SUV.

For trips to work, to run errands or visit friends, Dr. Peters, 43 years old, and his wife, Kris, hop into the munchkin-size cars while their old gas guzzlers gather dust. Admittedly, it's cramped inside the miniautos, which move along city streets at just 25 miles per hour. But the Peterses are converts to their low-speed vehicles.


As more families struggle to cope with high prices at the pump, the Peters, in Texas, have stowed away their regular gas guzzler in favor of a tiny, electric car.
"It makes so much sense for getting around. We go everywhere in it," says Mrs. Peters, 41.

It's a sure sign electric cars have a future when they're catching on in Texas. Others here, too, are abandoning the family car and driving to the office in what appear to be fancy little golf carts. Small battery-powered vehicles have been on the market for years but have mainly been used by workers driving around factories and university campuses.

more....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121746229279198963.html?mod=hps_us_pageone

I have to fess up and say I did actually check into this. One segment of my commute is on a small state hwy that requires me to go 55, otherwise.....
Hubby years ago did rig an electric motor to his bike and was riding it off the side of a hwy in the small town he lived in. He got pulled over by the cops and they had to call and find out if it was legal (it was, he was off the road). They were really fascinated with the rig. Oh he was wearing his helmet and pads. :spray:

[AnneD]

84. American Airlines Thinks It Is "Generous" to charge a $100 Excess Baggage Fee To Soldiers.

Let's say you are in the military and have to undergo some training before you are deployed to Iraq to fight in a war. Let's also say that this training requires to you bring 3 bags of equipment. If the airline you're flying charges a $100 "excess baggage" fee, but waives the $15 first checked bag fee, and the $25 second checked bag fee... is that "generous?"

American's policy allows military personnel "one checked 100-pound duffel-type bag, one standard checked 50-pound suitcase and one standard carry-on suitcase of up to 40 pounds." They're getting "a total of 190 pounds of free luggage," said airline spokesman Tim Wagner, in an e-mail to the El Paso Times.

Staff Sgt. Ashley Serrano doesn't see it that way. He says that other airlines see his uniform and waive their baggage fees. "I have flown Southwest, Continental, and when they saw me in uniform, they didn't even ask," Serrano said. "I flew American a couple of times before, but I never had this problem."

Serrano said he was confronted Friday at the El Paso International Airport with a demand for $100 for his third bag, and when he mentioned he was headed for Camp Bowie - where Texas Army National Guard soldiers train before deployment - he said they told him, without a smile, that the Army should have given him a voucher. Serrano's fellow soldier and traveling companion had three extra bags and was charged $300, he said.

more.....

http://consumerist.com/5031171/american-airlines-thinks-its-generous-to-charge-a-100-excess-baggage-fee-to-soldiers

:grr: Just when you think these folks can't get shittier. Hope they go out of business.

[tuckessee]

87. So you think the airlines should be required to cart about war material for free?

Why?

[Hugin]

91. Because they're heavily subsidized by the Govt maybe?

We all must sacrifice!

They certainly shouldn't profit from the war. This is what happens when the traditional missions of
say... The Air Force are privatized.

[AnneD]

95. Exactly....

I , as a Reservist, have flown on commercial mode on more than one occasion. You are required to be in uniform for the government transport on commercial airlines. All of their possessions in their packs are government issued and therefore part of their uniform. Imagine what would happen if you arrived at camp without your government issued equipment or a war zone. And these guys WILL be shipped to a war zone next. They frequently can't readily get you additional equipment (and you are responsible for it). Part of the contract the airlines signed with the government is to transport troops and their gear, period. Those were the terms of the contract (and I am sure they got top dollar from the government) and they are trying to renegotiate the terms with the individual troops-their argument should be with the government. And if you are going to the government to beg for help, what a better way to demonstrate your importance than something like this.

They didn't have this problem before-it shouldn't be a problem now.

[Neshanic]

93. This is my dream. They go out of business. They are really disgusting on so many levels.

Always screeching to the government to:

Help us.

Unregulate us.

Give us money.

Ask for more subsidies from cities where they fly.

Ask for special treatment.

Be the first to claim that the free market works.

[Juneboarder]

104. My experience is very little with the Military; however...

I do have an uncle on his 4th tour of duty in Iraq. He has come to visit us on his R&R a few times now and we do ask all kinds of questions about what its like over there.

First... he is in the Army and handles all the cargo.

Second... it seems like transportation of military equipment is done by the military and not put on some random, American Airlines/United/Delta/Etc... flight.

Every time my uncle travels, he ships everything and carries one bag; all of his items are personal and nothing to do with military equipment. I would say his heaviest items he carries are his cd/dvd collection, PS2, PS2 games, Radio, iPod w/docking station...

Yes, the airlines should be helping out our soldiers, I mean they are over there doing what they are told; but at the same time, they are getting the first and second bag charges waived, which is much better than your average traveller.

[AnneD]

136. If you read the article closely.....

it appears as if the guy is being called up to report at this training station. As a reservist, that happened to me on 2 occasions. I was called up to my camp duty station and not my reserve unit. If I had been called up there first-the Reserve unit would have covered or handled my gear. As it was, I had to handle it myself. This happens one occasion (I lived a great distance from my reserve unit). I never ever had a problem. I tried to pack my gear in one duffel bag but on one occasion, we had training in a colder climate. The 2 bags were heavier than normal carry on and I changed flights and could not chance getting separated from my bags. The air lines was most understanding.

Hubby travels with a fragile musical instrument. We have all kinds of ungodly hassles. It is to the point that we only travel on some airlines because of this.

[UpInArms]

94. Jokester Hanky-Panky Paulson wears clown shoes while delivering crap-spew:

01. Paulson: Stimulus impact not over, will last rest of year
1:02 PM ET, Jul 31, 2008

02. Paulson: Housing correction will only last months, not years
1:02 PM ET, Jul 31, 2008

03. Paulson sees moderate growth for rest of 2008
1:01 PM ET, Jul 31, 2008

04. Paulson: Housing woes will last only months, not years
1:00 PM ET, Jul 31, 2008

[Pale Blue Dot]

96. WOW.

That man must have steel balls.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

109. Or...

Malignant and metasizing sociopathy. Many in his position do.

On edit: I know this is perhaps perverse, but I would like to see housing fall to real values, not this inflated and churned bullshit that has been going on for years. Perhaps new regulations on housing market speculation, with licensing for speculators, with tests and yearly reviews of transactions and shit like that.

[ozymandius]

111. I'm all for that.

The sums of money per transaction are too large. Only well-trained specialists subject to regular competency exams should work in this business.

[Hugin]

97. #2 was so funny he had to restate it in #4...

I guess woes are not the same as a correction.

[ozymandius]

106. What a freak!

Perhaps this image would be more appropriate.



"Everything's going to be okay!"

[UpInArms]

124. omg!

that was too funny!

[Ghost Dog]

99. European shares end flat; mixed data, earnings

LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - European shares closed flat in a volatile session on Thursday following a mixed set of U.S. economic data and a flurry of earnings results on the continent.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares provisionally closed 0.05 percent lower at 1,180.12 points, after swinging between 1,171.24 and 1,189.56 points.

Corporate earnings were a mixed bag, with British lender HBOS (HBOS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) surprising investors with better-than-expected first-half results. The stock rallied 7.1 percent, pushing the DJStoxx European banking index 0.2 percent higher.

Food producers were the biggest drag after Unilever (ULVR.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) delivered second-quarter earnings which some analysts described as "poor quality".

The stock plummeted 8 percent in London, dragging peers Danone (DANO.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Nestle (NESN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 0.9 and 2.2 percent lower, respectively.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL169879020080731?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

100. Brazil's stocks fall on U.S. economy, real slips

SAO PAULO, July 31 (Reuters) - Brazil's stock market fell on Thursday as a fall in crude prices pushed state-controlled oil company Petrobras lower, while unexpectedly weak U.S. growth data weighed on miner Vale and local steelmakers.

The Bovespa index .BVSP of the Sao Paulo stock exchange fell 1 percent to 59,382 after a two-day winning streak that pushed it 5.5 percent higher.

Data showing the U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter and a jump in weekly jobless claims signaling weakness in the labor market helped push the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI lower and dragged on Brazilian markets too.

"The Bovespa is tracking Wall Street because of the negative economic figures in the United States," said Alessandra Ribeiro, an analyst at Tendencias consultancy in Sao Paulo.

Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 1.1 percent to 36.09 reais per share, tracking a fall of more than $2 a barrel in crude prices on concerns over lower demand because of a U.S. slowdown.

Vale (VALE5.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped 1.5 percent to 40.98 reais as investors took profits after the stock rallied about 9.5 percent over a three-day period.

Brazilian steelmakers also fell on concerns that a slower U.S. economy will cut metals demand. CSN (CSNA3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) declined 2.8 percent to 61.63 reais, while Usiminas (USIM5.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was down 1.8 percent to 69.54 reais.

JBS SA (JBSS3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's largest beef producer, sank 4.4 percent to 8.17 reais after the company reported a second-quarter net loss of 364.4 million reais, compared with profits of 38.7 million reais in the year-earlier period.

Cosan (CSAN3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's biggest combined sugar and ethanol producer, fell 1.4 percent to 30.80 reais. The company reported late on Wednesday it posted a 5.3 million reais net loss in the fiscal fourth-quarter, compared with profit of 164.7 million reais in the same period of 2007.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNN3132749420080731?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

102. Bank of Canada injects C$1.18 bln into market

TORONTO, July 31 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada injected a total of C$1.18 billion ($1.15 billion) into markets on Thursday in two operations to lower the overnight interest rate toward the central bank's target and improve liquidity.

The bank operates through Special Purchase and Resale Agreements, or SPRAs, buying securities with the agreement to sell them back in the next business day, effectively injecting money into markets.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCATOR00328920080731?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

103. European CO2 prices plunge on permit allocations

LONDON (Reuters) - European carbon permits fell to their lowest level in nearly four months on Wednesday as France and Portugal allocated EU permits to industry, quelling worries over a potential market shortage, traders said.

France's emissions registry confirmed on Wednesday they have allocated some 132.8 million EU Allowances to its industry, while Portugal's emissions registry told Reuters it issued 30.2 million out of a total quota of 34.8 million last Friday.

Eight countries have now allocated nearly 500 million EUAs, or around one quarter of the total cap under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.

Market participants have been concerned that a lack of available EUAs could force sellers to default on the December delivery of futures contracts, not to mention bring the spot market to a grinding halt.

Benchmark EU Allowances (EUAs) traded down 1.27 euros or 5.4 percent to 22.36 euros a tonne on Wednesday afternoon, the lowest level since early April. The futures bounced back slightly at 22.60 at 12 p.m. EDT.

The Dec-2008 delivery contracts are now down almost 25 percent since hitting a 2-year high of 29.69 euros in early July on the back of record oil and power prices.

"Banks sold pretty aggressively today, and with a lack of buyers out there it didn't take too much to push down the market," one emissions traders said.

"I think banks are expecting French and Portuguese installations to sell their EUAs on the spot market to raise cash. Cash is very expensive these days," he added, referring to difficulties in borrowing money during the credit crunch.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL014885420080730

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

108. 2:30ishPM EDT Commodity Market Update

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 124.00 1:25pm ET Down 2.77 (2.19%)
HOQ08.NYM Heating Oil Aug 08 3.4485 1:24pm ET Down 0.0718 (2.04%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 9.096 1:25pm ET Down 0.152 (1.64%)
PNQ08.NYM Propane Gas Aug 08 1.72 1:45pm ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBQ08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Aug 08 3.0492 1:24pm ET Down 0.0859 (2.74%)

A lot of propping on Crude, HO can't hold, NG follows and RBOB will break 3.00 tomorrow or Monday, methinks.

That is if the Nigerian SuperCommandos hold their water. :eyes:

Anyone know where the support line is on crude, presently?

CU08.CBT Corn Sep 08 588.00 2:14pm ET Down 13.50 (2.24%)
OU08.CBT Oats Sep 08 377.00 2:18pm ET Down 8.00 (2.08%)
RRU08.CBT Rough Rice Sep 08 16.58 2:14pm ET Down 0.045 (0.27%)
SMQ08.CBT Soybean Meal Aug 08 383.50 2:20pm ET Up 4.90 (1.29%)
BOQ08.CBT Soybean Oil Aug 08 58.35 2:15pm ET Up 0.09 (0.15%)
SQ08.CBT Soybeans Aug 08 1,395.50 2:14pm ET Up 1.50 (0.11%)

Same thing in grains. Someone really made a run at this market yesterday and it went flacid and puny.

Man, this market stinks something awful. Something is very rotten in Denmark.

[ozymandius]

113. We're halfway through the Witching Hour.

3:30
Dow 11,472.88 Down 110.81 (0.96%)
Nasdaq 2,337.55 Up 7.83 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,276.50 Down 7.76 (0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 3.979% Down 0.069
NYSE Volume 3,634,008,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,851,146,125

3:00 pm : The stock market slips after making an upward advance as gains in the financial sector (-0.1%) have been reversed. Now only four of the economic sectors are trading with gains. Healthcare is the leader of the bunch, currently up 1.0%.

Supporting the healthcare sector are shares of health insurance provider United Health Group (UNH 28.73, +1.45) and its smaller peer Aetna (AET 42.05, +1.73). Aetna announced earlier this morning earnings of $0.94 per share, besting the consensus earnings per share estimate of $0.93 per share.DJ30 -94.37 NASDAQ +16.12 SP500 -4.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1389/1.68 bln/1379 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1434/898 mln/1655

2:35 pm : The major indices are unable to extend their recovery efforts, with weakness in energy (-2.8%) and industrials (-1.2%) acting as a major drag.

Crude prices trade in a volatile manner, quickly falling to a 3.2% loss, before return to its previous level at a loss of 2%.

The financial sector is back at the unchanged mark as shares of Washington Mutual (WM 5.51, +0.72) soar. Reuters.com reports that Toscafund Asset Management, a British hedge fund, reported has taken a 6% stake in the struggling company.DJ30 -103.82 NASDAQ +13.90 SP500 -6.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/1.55 bln/1408 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1366/822 mln/1703

[ozymandius]

115. Wow! The Dow really fell on its teeth today.

Dow 11,378.02 Down 205.67 (1.78%) just before the final tally.

[CatholicEdHead]

122. It was all downhill just before lunch

And we still have Friday to go, the end of the week has usually not been very pretty lately.

[Pale Blue Dot]

117. So after 200 pt. swings every day this week,

We are now just about even with where we started on Monday.

There's a whole hell of a lot of reports coming out tomorrow - it should be a very interesting close to the week.

[ozymandius]

120. At the close of bidness -

Dow 11,378.02 Down 205.67 (1.78%)
Nasdaq 2,325.55 Down 4.17 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,267.38 Down 16.88 (1.31%)
10-Yr Bond 3.9790% Down 0.0690
NYSE Volume 5,316,269,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,316,466,500

Still waiting on the blather... not that it means much.

[ozymandius]

121. blather - with convincing evidence of Greenscam's accelerating dimensia

Dow Ends Dour Session 200 Points Lower

A late sell off knocked the stock market sharply lower before closing near its worst point of the session. The Dow and the S&P 500 finished 1.8% and 1.3% lower, respectively. The Nasdaq closed with a modest loss.

Thursday’s loss concluded what was an overall pessimistic session. The tone was set early on after disappointing economic data was unveiled.

According to the latest government data, the U.S. economy expanded 1.9% in the second quarter, missing 2.3% gain economists were expecting. Though the top line of this number is a bit disappointing, its downside surprise is to a negative impact from inventories. What is more, trends in consumer spending, business investment, exports, and government spending were generally better than forecast.

Many Wall Street pundits and economists believe U.S. economic growth will not return to its full potential until housing has successfully turned around. Former Fed Chairman Greenspan stated in an interview on CNBC that home prices are no where near a bottom. He also acknowledged there is still a 50-50 chance the U.S. will experience a recession.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported Treasury Secretary Paulson also noted housing is still correcting, but that the fiscal stimulus has helped economic growth.

Adding to the dour mood among participants, jobless claims for the week ending July 26 climbed 44,000 to 448,000, marking the third time in the last five weeks claims have surpassed 400,000. Continuing claims rose 6.0% to 3.282 million, while the four-week moving average jumped to 393,000 from 382,000.

In the end, the disappointing economic data trumped relatively upbeat earnings data from several widely held companies and lower oil prices.

Altria (MO 20.35, -1.35), Disney (DIS 30.35, -1.32), MasterCard (MA 244.15), Visa (V 73.06, -5.39), and Tyco (TYC 44.56, +2.05) all reported upside earnings results ahead of Thursday’s opening bell, but their performance during the session was mixed, given broader concerns.

In other corporate news, S&P lowered the ratings on Ford (F 4.80, -0.04) and General Motors (GM 11.07, -0.33) to B- from B and took and said it will not be changing their outlook on the pair within the next year.

Research in Motion (RIMM 122.82, +3.60) and ImClone (IMCL 63.93, +17.49) moved appreciably higher, helping the Nasdaq spend the majority of the session in positive ground. ImClone received a $60 per share bid from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 21.12, -0.39).

Meanwhile, oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 80.43, -3.95) posted its largest quarterly profit in its history, thanks to record oil prices. Yet the results still fell short of the consensus earnings per share estimate. Its shares fell as a result, making it the primary laggard in both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Oil prices fell more than 2.0% to finish near $124 per barrel. The downturn, coupled with Exxon’s miss, made energy the worst performing economic sector this session. It finished 3.4% lower.

The decline in oil prices helped spur interest in inflationary-sensitive areas like U.S. Treasuries since softer inflationary threats make fixed income securities more attractive. The benchmark 10-year Note closed 24 ticks higher.

[Wednesdays]

135. Asian stocks down badly

Nikkei and Hang Seng both down more than 2%.

NIKKEI 225
(Osaka: ^N225)
Index Value: 13,043.59
Trade Time: 11:48PM ET
Change: Down 333.22 (2.49%)

HANG SENG INDEX
(HKSE: ^HSI)
Index Value: 22,220.23
Trade Time: Jul 31
Change: Down 510.87 (2.25%)