Civil War Possible In Iraq

[CShine]

Reuters reports that as the US struggles to find a formula to return sovereignty to Iraq, officials are worried about the potential for civil war in a country marked by religious and ethnic tensions. Although US officials in Iraq say that a civil war would be unlikely with 123,000 US troops in the country, they are still wary because of the history of mutual grievances between Sunni and Shiite Muslims and Kurds. Reuters says a "traumatic event" could trigger such an occurance, such as the assassination of a major religious political leader by another faction. Or, as Brookings Institution defense analyst Michael O'Hanlon points out, the chances of civil war may rise once US troops are gone.

"In the longer term, you have the very distinct possibility of the militias of the different ethnic groups being the most powerful military forces in Iraq. And if the national army doesn't hold together or doesn't turn out to be very powerful, you could have a situation where when we try to pull out in five years you see civil warfare at that point," O'Hanlon said.

Knight-Ridder reports that whispers of "revolution" are growing louder in Baghdad this month at teahouses, public protests and tribal meetings. Iraqi's look back to 1920, when they rebelled against British rule. Knight-Ridder says many believe the situation in the country now is similar to the situation 84 years ago: unpopular foreign occupiers, unelected governing bodies and unhappy residents eager for self-determination. Many Shiites are looking to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani for guidance.

"If Sistani called for revolution, I would sacrifice my life for the good of my country," said Hamdiya al Niemi, a 27-year-old street vendor whose father raised her on stories of the 1920 uprising. "My father was so proud talking about that time, how we kicked out the British and how we should never allow foreigners to rule our land."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0129/dailyUpdate.html?s=entt

[DoYouEverWonder]

1. We tried to tell them this would happen

the CIA tried to tell them. But W prefers to listen to his yes men over in OSP. One problem, a couple of those yes men, want civil war in Iraq. For the Likudniks, civil war in the ME is just the ticket to Israel's plans for security.

[Hubert Flottz]

3. It's the old roadmap to peace in action!

Bush has failed at everything he ever touched, so why would this be any different! The chimp is 55 years old and has still not learned to speak English!

[IndianaGreen]

15. I am sure that those that voted for this war, including the Democratic...

I am sure that those that voted for this war, including the Democratic front runner, will try to pin the entire blame for the Iraq mess on Bush.

Amazing how similar both parties can be when it comes to shunning responsibility for their actions!

[Hubert Flottz]

2. No Shei'ite!

They will soon have a democracy just like the one in Iran! And Bushco fixed things for them! When you're dead I guess you're liberated!

[ixion]

4. what a nasty pandora's box the Bush cabal has opened

Those of us who opposed this invasion stated this exact scenario as one of the reasons NOT to invade a soverign nation. But the chicken hawks, they only listen to the violent inner child. :-(

[Barrett808]

9. I fear that soon we'll be able to say Iraq WAS better off with Saddam

And the world was safer with him in power.

[Jackpine Radical]

12. The PNAC Neocons are enough

to give pointy-headed intellectuals a bad name.

[mn9driver]

5. A stable, democratic gov't will be a miracle.

These folks have no history of a national identity that hasn't been imposed on them from outside or by an iron fisted despot. I would love to hear more from the candidates re proposals to 1. Get our kids out asap, while 2. keeping Iraq from civil war and 3.preventing an Iranian style shari'a theocracy.

I'd even settle for 1. and 2.....

(1st post, I'm impressed by all the participation here; it looks like you have very few lurkers!)

Driver
Roachblog

[bobbyboucher]

6. Looks can be deceiving.

Here's to hoping you never run across them.

:toast:

Welcome to the DU.

[bobbyboucher]

7. Oops, you said "lurkers"

I mistook it for "trolls".

Watch out!

[Barrett808]

10. Welcome to DU, mn9driver!

There may be a lot of lurkers, but there are a lot of thoughtful loudmouths, as well!

:hi:

[oneighty]

11. Lurker-

One who lies in concealment, lurkers are known unknowns, unseen--unlike trolls.

Welcome mn9driver to Democratic Underground.

180

[Barrett808]

8. Brahimi "very, very successful in Afghanistan"!?

If that's what success looks like...

[Fargin Ice Hole]

13. Damn they better flood the people with credit cards and

plenty of dumb television filled with media owned news networks before they get out of control.

[daleo]

14. A revealing snippet

"And if the national army doesn't hold together or doesn't turn out to be very powerful, you could have a situation where when we try to pull out in five years you see civil warfare at that point," O'Hanlon said."

"When we try to pull out in five years" - so there will be no real pullout in the summer, although there might be a little political theater, to make it look like one is happening.

[Zhade]

16. Exactly. Good eye.

Exit strategy? They don't need a strategy when they don't plan to exit!

[CShine]

17. bump

[reprobate]

18. Somewhere in texas a village is missing it's idiot.

Pssst. He's in the white house. Please retrieve him asap.

[mouse7]

19. Kurds will walk with their third of the country

Kurds have best equipped troops. Nobody is going to make them go back to being a persecuted ethnic minority.

And then Turkey invades Kurdish Iraq. That will be fun.