Poll: Kerry Sails Past Dean for New Hampshire Lead

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&ncid=716&e=14&u=/nm/20040122/pl_nm/campaign_poll_dc

MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites), riding a wave of momentum from his Iowa caucus victory, grabbed a three-point lead over Howard Dean (news - web sites) in New Hampshire five days before the state's presidential primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Thursday.


Kerry, a Massachusetts senator whose come-from-behind win in Iowa reshaped the Democratic presidential race, led Dean 27 percent to 24 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which began the day of Iowa's caucuses.


Kerry stretched his lead over Dean, who limped to a distant third-place finish in Iowa, to 11 points in the most recent day of polling on Wednesday.


"Kerry not only jumps into the lead, but today his lead was commanding," pollster John Zogby said. "Remember, we still have one-third of the sample taken before the Iowa caucus."

more

[jsw_81]

1. Yep

And the Boston Globe poll has Kerry beating Dean by ten.

[Lexingtonian]

8. it could be that Zogby has him over 30 today too

Notice the Zogby caution about the 27 being an average over several days- he's saying that it's still changing. All the other polling out there is consistent in showing an upward trend. I think we can safely infer that Zogby has higher numbers coming in since they ended that fixed polling interval. To be worth public mention the change seen would certainly have to be greater than the MOE. I'd say that means 30+% numbers already. That would agree with the Boston Herald number for Kerry.

[cspiguy]

2. ANYONE ELSE THINK * THE * FIX * IS *IN???

I don't believe you go from WAAAAAAAY out in front to Bum in one day without some serious smarmy shenanigans.

[libview]

3. forgive my ignorance, what are you saying?

[cspiguy]

5. That some powers that be have never been comfortable with Dean and

maybe have their thumbs on the scales for Kerry. Can't be proven - maybe makes me a tin-hat but jeez it if someone wrote this in a fictional account and we read it in December we would laugh it off as ridiculous.

Also, Drudge is saying that he has Edwards dirt "developing", which means he'll probably drop it on him this weekend to time with NH. Maybe I don't have the stomach for political hardball but it feels like the big "somethings" or "someones" may decide these races and not Joe on the Street.

[piece sine]

10. Dean's demise is no secret...

it's the talk ofthe town..YEEEEEEEAH! There are a CHOICE of disco mixes all over the "net of Dean screaming his candicacy into oblivion. What did you think was going to happen? One doesn't need a tinfoil hat to pick-up the vibes that it is now a pop-cultural certainty that Dean is not a suitable candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination for President. Period. Nothing will change that. the dye has been cast. Dean made the Mount Everest of political blunders. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. yup

Dean stabbed himself in the back with that speech. But I doubt very seriously he would have won New Hampshire even if he had given a perfect concession speech.

I think the Kerry people used this phrase a few months ago. It didn't fit then, but it sure does now.

"Dated Dean...Married Kerry."

[ChrisNYC]

12. As a former longtime Dean supporter

This isn't just the powers that be. I was at his original big event at Essex Lounge last January or February, and have attended multiple events over the course of the year and given him plenty of my money. But, he has killed himself. I officially moved from the Dean camp to undecided after the Iowa fiasco, and will now just wait and see what the field looks like when the primaries come to NY on Super Tuesday. He has run a HORRIBLE campaign for the last month since the attacks started, and the Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaah was just stupid when he knows the media are trying to paint him as a hot-head. I still love his message and think he would make a great President, but I don't think he's the right guy to carry that message forward anymore. That said, I really dislike Kerry and am hoping Clark can make a move after NH.

[Lorien]

13. That has always been the way of it

and always will be. As Kevin Phillips says; this is a government "of the wealthy, by the wealthy, and for the wealthy." The media paints an enthusiastic political speech as insanity, while painting hysterical bold faced lies about "imminent threats" and WMDs as statesmanlike. Are we surprised?

[robcon]

15. I think you have to get over it

It's not the media. It's Dean's horrible and memorable gaffe.

[leesa]

4. I agree. Something bizarre is happening here.

[leftynyc]

6. I think what you have is many undecideds

who are now leaning to Kerry. People are starting to pay attention (not everyone is as involved as DUers) and while I have no problem with any of our candidates and will vote for whoever the nominee is, right now people are looking at who has the best chance to beat Bush. It's not just the powers that be that have a problem with Dean - that speech the other night made people uncomfortable and many think he doesn't have the temperment for President (again, I have no beef with any candidate).

[Lexingtonian]

7. If you're talking about Dean

he's been in a decline for at least two weeks. I think his best day was around January 3rd or a bit later, at 40%. On the polls of the 10th he was around 34%, and on the day of Iowa (Monday) several different polls were all reporting about 28%. With a sharp (if not very large) drop the next day.

A trend line that, were it linear, would put him around 22% on NH's election day (the 27th).

[kwolf68]

14. Maybe not

Admit it or not, but Dean has NOT BEEN acting presidential of late. This is a FACT. And YEA, I’d agree that it’s OK to have a guy who will put his heart on his sleeve like Dean, but the bottom line is when we remove Chimp from behind the big red button we need someone who appears more stable and less defensive than Mr. Dean has been.

This isn’t an anti-Dean rant mind you. I am just detailing WHY I think Dean has struggled of late.

I am not a Dean supporter, but I made up my mind long ago beating Bush was a major priority and if he can’t take the barbs from Kerry, Clark, etc…then Bush/Rove will turn him inside out.

[0007]

9. "Kerry sails past Dean" I hope it's not a boat race,

if ya know what I mean? (fixed)