STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 22 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday January 22, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 368
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 41 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 93 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 305
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 789
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 21, 2004

Dow... 10,623.62 +94.96 (+0.90%)
Nasdaq... 2,142.45 -5.53 (-0.26%)
S&P 500... 1,147.62 +8.85 (+0.78%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.04% -0.02 (-0.49%)
Gold future... 411.20 -1.70 (-0.41%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Maeve]

1. Good toon!!

As I just posted elsewhere, the media want a horserace and if it can be in the mud, so much the better. Destroying people in the process is just gravy....

Futures are faltering right now--I can't stay around for the fun of the Initial Claims follies, but they were 343K last week and expected to either rise 2K or fall by 3K (where's 54anickel?? and I kid you not--see http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business )

Mom's Taxi Service, off to college! :hi:

p.s.--the car was totalled, so the boys get to learn how to shop for a usable junker this weekend

[trogdor]

2. Agreed.

One candidate running away with it makes for boring news coverage, just like one football team blowing out the other one makes for a boring Super Bowl.

Go Pats. I'll read about it in the paper on Monday.

[DUreader]

3. Better get them a diesel.

better mileage and can run on bio with no alteration

[54anickel]

5. There's that 50-50 chance again. Up or down, heads or tails?

Drive safely there now ;-)

Totalled hey, I guess a junker with 250K miles on it would be considered totaled with nothing more than a popped out headlight these days. :evilgrin:

I wish "the boys" much success on their quest for a usable junker.

[ozymandius]

8. Ted Turner used to drive $200 cars.

He would buy them out of the newspaper and drive them into the ground. He preferred Toyotas.

Good choice on the junker Maeve.

I am heading out right now and will be gone for the entire day. Much work needs to be done. Hopefull, my game of phone tag will end with a conversation with the key person to one of my most promising job prospects.

Bye all!

:hi:

Ozy

[54anickel]

10. I used to do the same thing. Hard to find 'em "cheap" anymore.

I would drive them suckers right into the ground. I'd usually be able to get 2-4 years out of one (lived in the sticks so put on a lot of miles rather quickly).

Ever since I started buying "new" cars, my promise to myself has been to keep them for at least 10 years - longest was 14, shortest was 10. That 10 year one was really costing me in maintenance for the last year, but a promise is a promise.

[Maeve]

21. The Car Talk guys also recommend cheap

What I tend to think of as a "disposable". We always bought used until my van in '02, so Hubby has plenty of experience in bargain shopping. #2 Son just had his first driving lesson Saturday in the recently departed Subaru.
I'm just glad I'm not the one having to shop with Hubby this time! He ran over a sales manager's foot once when the guy wouldn't take "not buying" for an answer...(okay, it was an accident and the guy wasn't really hurt and he shouldn't have been hanging onto the window like that in the first place!)

Market looks spikey again today..I hate days when I have to keep changing font colors!
Dow 10,638.36 +14.74 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,137.31 -5.14 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,148.39 +0.77 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.014% -0.023

[54anickel]

29. Funny!!! Did someone happen to roll the window up on him as well?

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Stocks Regain Early Losses

Stocks spent most of the day in mixed trading that saw money move out of technology, especially the semiconductor group, and move to the relative safety of the large-cap “blue chips” in the Dow Industrials. At the opening bell, technology stocks fell sharply with the NASDAQ Composite down 27 points or 1.2% in the first hour of trading. The weakness in technology was attributed to a disappointing outlook from RF Micro Devices and concern over declining sales and profits from Motorola’s handset division, which accounts for 40% of the companies’ revenues. The negative news rippled into the semiconductor sector with the $SOX Index posting a loss of 14 points or 2.6% to close at 540.

Housing Starts Surprise to the Upside

It could be that stocks gained later in the day as the markets digested the government report that showed U.S. housing starts unexpectedly rose to a 2.09 million annual rate last month. Economists were forecasting a decline of nearly 6% to 1.95 million units annualized, but were way off the mark. I read at least three different articles today that indicated the big increase in housing starts and the overall strength in real estate can be attributed to very low interest rates and continuing economic improvement in the United States. A CBS MarketWatch article used the words “extraordinarily low interest rates” and a Bloomberg article used the words “cheap financing.” The way I see it, most home buyers today don’t really care how much the house costs or how much debt they plan to assume. They only seem to care if they can afford the monthly payment. For those of you that think along those lines, you should get a VERY rude awakening the day interest rates begin to rise.

The Scariest Part

With a huge housing number, stocks should have been higher across the board with the implied economic strength and bonds should have sold-off moving interest rates slightly higher. As I said earlier, stocks were mixed today and Treasury bonds moved slightly higher instead of declining, as they should with reports of economic strength. Now let’s go to the news headlines to see why interest rates are staying down when market forces suggest they should be on the rise. You may get tired of hearing me quote Bloomberg News, but I consider them as mainline as anyone. The following two sentences should bring some sobering thoughts to your mind:

Showdown in February

The currency wars are moving into full stride as the rhetoric picks up momentum back and forth across the Atlantic. I won’t go on to list the numerous quotes over the last two weeks between the officials from Europe and our policy makers here at home. What they are saying is basically this: The U.S. view is to stimulate and inflate, while the European view is to restrain deficit spending and maintain monetary discipline. The European Union is holding their ground to refrain from intervention that would weaken the euro while the U.S. is determined to devalue the dollar (create lots more of them) in an effort to re-inflate the world.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

9. Great article. Just a couple of thoughts on this currency war....

Mr. Wellink also said, “The forces at work are much stronger and can’t be neutralized by a minor change in rates.” He is implying that there are some big structural problems with interest rates and currency exchange rates.

This year 2004 will prove to be a very political time with the presidential elections and all the international tensions. We will have to keep a very close eye on interest rates to see who is forced to move first. It could also be that the politicians do not have the final say in the direction of interest rates.


Interesting to see the Plaza accord mentioned again by the way. It's been showing up in more and more articles along with the Louvre agreement.

The issue I have is that most do not pay much attention to the currency exchange rates. The focus tends to be the stock market. Put that together with UIA's post, where the US Treasury will only get concerned it the falling dollar effects stocks or interest rates. Very scary statement as it seems they will sit and do nothing until it is too late.

So, from the quotes above, I've gotta ask, Do you feel safer now?:evilgrin:

JMHO

[Frodo]

6. Initial claims down slightly. 4wk avg. dn slightly.

Slightly better than anticipated.

341k (expected 345k) moving average down (guessing) about 3k. Last weeks number revised slighlty better (1k).


Not enough to move the market either way I'd suspect. Statistical noise.

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.84 Change -0.52 (-0.60%)

related articles

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/01/21/rtr1220272.html

Europe howls at dollar drop but U.S. keeps smiling

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The sagging U.S. dollar is pinching Europe and Japan enough to raise howls of protest but there is no sign it is causing measurable pain in America.

Until it does -- by firing up U.S. inflation or driving interest rates higher, or both -- calls for the Group of Seven rich nations to cooperate in boosting the dollar will almost certainly fall on deaf ears in Washington.

<snip>

But both economics and U.S. politics argue against much emerging from this meeting, analysts say, despite the G7's storied past that included the historic 1985 Plaza accord -- a deal to bring down the dollar's value that actually worked.

The Bush administration has worked out a variation of the "strong-dollar" mantra of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, saying it backs a strong dollar but one whose value is set by markets, not government intervention.

What officials leave unsaid is that a falling dollar helps shrink big U.S. trade deficits, which Europe has long said were a threat to long-term global growth.

Nor has the strong dollar refrain changed despite an acceleration in the currency's decline in recent months.

<snip>

"It's only going to be considered disorderly if it adversely affects interest rates or the stock market but as long as those are quarantined, the decline causes no difficulty," said Roger Kubarych of the Council of Foreign Relations in New York.

<snip>

"I think that what we are experiencing in the United States from this is pleasure, certainly not pain," said economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. "We're seeing a reasonable devaluation in the value of the dollar and this is exactly what the doctor has ordered."

...more...

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281225674

Euro continues gaining against the dollar

The euro continued its upward march against the dollar on Thursday after recent comments from European officials eased the market's concerns about the possitbility of direct intervention from the European Central Bank.

Following last week's sharp correction, which took the dollar to a one-month high against the euro amid growing concerns that the ECB might intervene, the language used by European finance ministers and central bank members was more defensive this week.

<snip>

The absence of any mentioning of direct action left traders with the view that the ECB was not about to intervene in the market.

...more...

So I guess we shall watch the dollar slip-sliding away for the next quarter (or until it's worth about that much).

Good Morning to all of the Marketeers!

Have a Great Day!

(edited for html :( )

[54anickel]

11. Good morning UIA.

I took some of yesterday's news as a bit of a "toe in the water", looking for how the market would respond to different verbal messages. But then again, I'm that CT type that tends to read too deeply into motives.

There was the Bundesbank announcement of the DESIRE to sell 600 tonnes of gold out of the blue. Then a lot of chatter by US analysts of China moving to a basket of currencies this year (which I am suspicious of from all I've been following out of China on the issue - more lip service than action).

Is it more of a "Let the Games Begin" message?

On edit add:

Gold and buck down together. The news from Germany now making more headlines as well. Perhaps a delayed reaction?

[54anickel]

12. Hey Frodo, just an aside to yesterday. Here's an article that

states in tonnes, how much some of the central banks hold in gold. Don't get to see that quoted very often, so I think I'll hang on to it for future reference.

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=565&fArticleId=330896

About a quarter of the world's gold is held by central banks and international organisations. The Bundesbank has about 3 440 tons, second only to the US, with 8 135 tons. France is the fourth-largest holder, with 3 025 tons, and Italy is the fifth-largest, with 2 452 tons.


http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281217344

The central bank gold pact has successfully helped to stabilise gold prices by forming an orderly queue for central banks to sell bullion holdings. The 1999 agreement followed random bullion selling by central banks.

In 1999, Gordon Brown, the chancellor of the exchequer, surprised bullion markets by announcing that the Bank of England planned to sell more than half its gold holdings. This caused the gold price to sink to a 20-year low of $252. Since then the gold price has risen more than 60 per cent, largely aided by a weaker US dollar.

Other sellers in a renewed gold agreement are expected to include Switzerland, the Netherlands and Portugal, which all sold gold under the original pact.

Central bank gold holdings play a diminishing role in the bullion markets, as they are about a quarter of the world's gold in circulation. That compares with more than 50 per cent of gold circulation in the early 1960s. Additional reporting by Tony Major in Frankfurt and Robert Graham in Paris.

[Frodo]

14. Very interesting, Thanks for the link.

This could take a bit to digest.

[UpInArms]

17. question regarding central banks' gold holdings

what part does "leasing" play in all of this?

http://www.economymodels.com/gold.asp

There are two primary sources of gold supply – mining and central bank vaults. At current prices, most mines are not profitable and mining supply is wholly inadequate to fill the demand. The remaining gold has been provided by central banks, partly by outright sales and partly by lending. This so called gold leasing is probably the most controversial issues in the gold world. It is not known how much gold has been leased by central banks. The amount can be estimated as a differential between demand and other forms of supply, but it is a very difficult calculation. Numbers from 5000, to 20000 tons of gold have been estimated based on the same sources of information. What is clear, is that many years of future gold production have been borrowed and sold into the market.

The reason for central bank sales and gold leasing is also unclear. Leased gold earns an interest for the central banks, but this lease rate is low compared to the interest rate that can be obtained in the bond market. This has reportedly given rise to the gold carry trade, similar to the yen carry trade, where speculators lease gold and sell it into the market. The proceeds are invested in bonds or treasuries. There is also a less speculative form of gold leasing, where it is used for hedging by gold producers. The gold producers sell the leased gold into the market and return the gold out of future production.

One reason that the gold leasing is controversial is that it seems very hard for the central banks to actually get their gold back. If the gold where to be returned, several years of production would have to be used solely for this purpose, leaving nothing for consumption. Conspiracy theorists have suggested that the central bank gold leasing is actually a covert sale, with the purpose of keeping a faith in the paper money system.

and from June 2000

http://www.btimes.co.za/98/0628/news/news9.htm

Kebble questions why central banks perpetuate the gold contango by lending the metal to producers and even backers of projects such as railways at lease rates of 1% to 1.5%.

This gold is sold and the proceeds applied to higher-yielding, interest- earning securities. Such market participants are "eternally grateful to the central banks for their largesse", according to Kebble, who says it is "a strange quirk of commerce . . . shareholders would have a lot to say if a company lent out high-value assets at low interest rates". He knocks the central banks for their shroud of secrecy and lack of transparency: in his view gold could be 15% higher if lease rates of 5% to 6% were applied.

Willson made a similar point: central banks earned perhaps $1-billion from lending gold, but the value of their gold holdings had been lowered by $100-billion as a consequence. "The major factor contributing to the decline of gold's purchasing power has been the mobilisation of western central bank gold reserves through gold lending since the early 1980s."

or is this just another way to manipulate the markets?

:hi:

[54anickel]

20. Good question and the answer lies somewhere between the news and the rumor

The news has always touted the "better return on investment" by selling the gold and putting that money to work somewhere else.

The rumor has been that they went way overboard on the controversial leasing, the gold is already gone and this is a way to clear up the books before the public finds out and there is a huge up roar.

I remember posting a survey that was taken back in 99(?) of how important the public from various countries felt gold reserves were. I think those results made those playing the leasing game a bit nervous.

So it would depend on which account you believe. You know me, I tend to side with the CTs. :tinfoilhat:

Regardless, I feel there will always be attempts at market manipulation on gold. Right now, the question is whether they can continue to be successful with the likes of my Malaysian buddy and others not quite as vocal.

[Coventina]

13. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning marketeers!

Today's reading is SHOCKING changing to HARMONIZE. Seems an odd pairing. Here is the changing line from SHOCKING: "An unexpected event may frighten you. You may see it as dangerous, and all the feelings that accompany danger will rise up in you. Yet the ordeal will end, bringing you great relief. Good fortune is indicated."

Harmonize is a very positive hexagram. Here is a quote: "During this time you should seek to analyze the essential nature of the moment. If you can grasp the direction of the tendencies around you, you can parallel them and accomplish great deeds."

So, to sum this up, I would say to look for a potentially frightening event, size it up, harmonize with it, and walk away a winner!

I am going to predict a down day for the markets. I don't know why, I just think they are going to be down.

[UpInArms]

19. well, it looks as though they

are trying to electro-shock the markets :D

Dollar lifted by rumor of Bin Laden capture

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/01/22/rtr1222402.html

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The dollar gained ground on Thursday, with traders citing a rumor that Osama Bin Laden had been captured.

Some traders said they believed the rumor sprang from a planned joint U.S.-Saudi press conference on financing.

...more...

yeah right - snort snort -

[54anickel]

22. Too funny. That might explain why there's been so much "news" the

last couple of days reporting OBL is alive and well!
Of course, he'd have to meet with something fatal before they thaw him out for display.

Could this be today's SHOCKING, moving to Harmonizing?

I can't believe this, I mean it's not like the capture of Saddam bought them much of a rise.

:evilgrin: :tinfoilhat:

[54anickel]

27. That "toe in the water" didn't last long. As a CT, this is fun to watch.

So MANY word games today.
:evilgrin:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=564&ncid=716&e=11&u=/nm/20040122/ts_nm/security_binladen_dc

U.S. Official: No Truth to Rumor Bin Laden Captured

[JNelson6563]

15. Good Morning Marketeers!!

Great thread as usual. Starting with that fab 'toon and then all the info. Dollar looks kinda sickly again.

But hey, earnings are in and we're all rich, right? Whoo-hooo!! Hurry! Don't miss out at the roulette tab, er, the Buy window!! Beat he crowd, buy now!

heh heh

Busy day addressing envelopes, preparing mailings for the party, lots of interested parties I'm getting names for. Several big events coming up and I'm also working on Dean's Michigan campaign (you may have heard him mention Michigan the other night haha).

The work of those who would over-throw the government never ends. Toss in the fact we are getting hammered hard with snow (school's closed even!) you can bet there will be a batch of cookies in there and maybe even a hot game of monopoly. Gotta teach the young 'uns how it all works, yanno?

Maeve, as an aside, I have found older Honda Civics to be cheap, dependable, great on gas and cute, zippy little rides. I've got one with 160,000 miles on it and it's my run-around-town-for-almost-no-gas car. My fifteen year old will be learning to drive with this car next year. So glad your son is alright.

May you all make a few pennies today, gold is calling out it's siren song to me again....

Will check in later or tomorrow, as time permits. Thanks to all for your great contributions, I get all my real financial news here.

Marketeers, I salute you! (I watched Maximus Kickimus Buttimus {Gladiator} recently, can you tell?)

Julie

[54anickel]

16. Good Morning Julie. We have bitter cold here and nasty winds.

Are you in the UP or Lower MI?

I saw an article last night that MI is allowing Internet voting in the primaries?

Keep up the good work in over throwing this misadmin. :hi:

[JNelson6563]

35. Thanks 54

I'm up by the pinky of the LP. I especially love how everyone's got a built in map of Michigan. Check out the weather channel and see much of our state covered in that yucky green snow. haha

On-line voting in our caucus. We are rockin'! Bush loses more support in Michigan every day (seems to keep up with our job losses).

Julie

[54anickel]

43. Good to hear! Not the snow, Bush loosing support. I'm in SE WI

you know, the folks that want to steal the UP away from you all.
:P

[Frodo]

18. Index of leading indicators up slightly (in line with expectations)

Small number mostly easy to predict based on pror releases. December's figure may not show on the graph yet (it updates later) but is .2% (in line with expectations)

A revision from last month knocks it down from .3% to .2%.

[UpInArms]

23. up is down?

somehow that "up" thing doesn't seem to be showing on the graph.

:crazy:

[Frodo]

25. You just have to learn to read it.

It's a percent change from the previous month. So anything above the "0" line is an increase. The trend since April or May is actually fairly positive. Here's the actual index:




What you are seeing translates as "better... but 'less better' than a few months ago"

[Teaser]

33. I expect a "top" in this indicator in a month or two.

If the hiring slowdown represents something real happening in the economy that is, and is not some weird artifact.

[Maeve]

24. Causey--Enron Accounting Chief--indicted

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/22/news/companies/enron_causey/index.htm
Causey accused of fraud for allegedly helping Fastow hide debt, fraudulently boost profit.
January 22, 2004: 10:37 AM EST
HOUSTON (CNN) - Former Enron Corp. accounting chief Richard Causey has been indicted on five counts of securities fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, the U.S. Justice Department said Thursday.

Causey is in federal custody in Houston after turning himself in to authorities, a source familiar with the situation told CNN. Video from Houston affiliate KHOU showed Causey being led into the FBI building, escorted by a U.S. marshal.

[UpInArms]

26. well, when they make

that quartet thing (keeping in line with harmony) with Fastow, Causey, Skilling and Lay, I will regain a smidgen of faith in our system. Until then ... the cynic in me shall reign supreme.

[Maeve]

28. 12:31 and better

Odd to see so much quick movement at lunch hour...

Dow 10,639.77 +16.15 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,131.94 -10.51 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,146.95 -0.66 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 3.979% -0.058

[54anickel]

30. Less font color changes anyway. Money moving into the safety of the

big blue chips? Saw that somewhere this morning.

[Maeve]

31. 2:06 update

Just bouncing a little the past hour. No one doing all that well, but the blue chips are out-performing the Nasdaq. :shrug:

Dow 10,629.55 +5.93 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,128.11 -14.34 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,145.86 -1.76 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 3.970% -0.067

[54anickel]

32. Looks like happy days in Asia though

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,106009,00.html

snip>
In contrast with previous Asian economic booms, domestic demand has been pushing the growth rather than an inflow of foreign investment.

Consumer spending accounted for more than one-third of growth in gross domestic product in Indonesia and the Philippines along with more than half of the growth in Thailand over the last 18 months, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Adding strength to the growth has been a level of inflation that remains low across the region and below 2 per cent for Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and China. Even in Indonesia, perpetually burdened by surging prices, annual inflation declined to about 6 per cent last year from more than 10 per cent in 2002.

Stock markets, riding on the tail of macroeconomic strength, have taken off. After plunging as the Sars epidemic spread across Asia, stock prices rose in local currency terms by as much as 78 per cent in Thailand, 60 per cent in Indonesia and more than 40 per cent in South Korea in the second half of the year.

[54anickel]

34. Don't mean to steal UIA's thunder, but US$ retreats despite BOJ's prop-up

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,105971,00.html

snip>
And, while an unexpected move by the Bank of Japan did allow the greenback to attempt an overnight recovery towards the key 108-yen barrier, the US dollar was eventually dragged back down by its renewed weakness elsewhere in New York trading.

snip>
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan had unexpectedly raised the guidelines for targetted cash reserves of commercial banks by about 10 per cent - to 30-35 trillion yen, a move widely interpreted as yet another attempt to weaken the yen. But the greenback still retreated after briefly hitting an overnight high of 107.90 yen. And, by yesterday morning's abbreviated session ahead of an extended Chinese New Year break, it looked very much like it would be business as usual for greenback sellers.

snip>
Interestingly, a wide-ranging survey of global fund managers by US investment bank Merrill Lynch reaffirmed the general feeling that it could be Asian currencies which will impress in 2004.

Not many of the traders we speak to realistically expect any sudden or drastic changes anytime soon for fixed US dollar peg relationships in Asia, specifically versus the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. But respondents to the Merrill survey were nevertheless much more bullish on the Chinese and Japanese currencies than the euro, according to a Reuters report yesterday.

In all, 298 fund managers overseeing a total of almost a trillion US dollars' worth of assets were polled between Jan 8 to 15, and here's what they had to say. A net 50 per cent thought the euro was overvalued, while almost the same number thought the yuan was undervalued.

However, 21 per cent believed that the yen would appreciate most over the coming 12 months - compared to 22 per cent a month ago. Interestingly, however, only 21 per cent thought the greenback would depreciate the most in the coming year, compared to 36 per cent in December.



The tiger awakens?

[JNelson6563]

36. The currency situation is worrisome

I appreciate you keeping us informed of it.

3:31 and here's the picture:


Dow 10,634.67 +11.05 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,131.75 -10.70 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,146.71 -0.90 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.969% -0.068

Joy in the Treasury pits today. :toast:

Julie

[54anickel]

37. Thanks,

Not always sure of those posts are appreciated or not since this is the Stock Market Thread.

I still need to get a better grasp on this Treasury stuff, as it seems to be that the bond market would be where the push to raise rates would come from.

Speaking of currency, just got a packet of trinkets today. Couple of Silver Pandas in there as well and they are absolutely gorgeous! Cost a bit more than Eagles but love to collect them for the aesthetic value. I think silver is still a pretty good bargain these days, but my passion remains with gold. :loveya:

[Maeve]

38. Final numbers

Dow 10,623.18 -0.44 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,119.01 -23.44 (-1.09%)
S&P 500 1,143.94 -3.67 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 3.969% -0.068

[54anickel]

39. All one font color! ;-)

[JNelson6563]

40. methinks there are less buyers in the

"all is just peachy" market these days....

Hope everyone can catch the debate at 8 pm on Faux News tonight!

Julie

[Frodo]

45. First back-to-back decline in the NASDAQ since 12/10

Interesting run.

[KoKo]

41. CBS Market Watch Calandra Resigns/ SEC probe into his Trading Activities.

(I thought some of you might be interested in this if you've read his column) Interesting.

MarketWatch.com commentator Calandra resigns
Internal probe sparked by SEC request for records
By CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:43 PM ET Jan. 22, 2004


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Thom Calandra, chief commentator for CBS MarketWatch and one of the founders of its parent company, resigned Thursday amid an internal probe into his trading activities that was sparked by a query from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Calandra, 47, who for the last nine months was the author of a subscription newsletter, The Calandra Report, said in a letter to the company that he was resigning immediately.

According to the company, Calandra told MarketWatch.com executives in late December that he received a letter from the San Francisco office of the SEC. The agency asked for records of his personal stock trades, copies of his newsletter and copies of the e-mail alerts he occasionally sent to his subscribers. MarketWatch.com (MKTW: news, chart, profile) launched an internal investigation the following day.
The SEC has in the past probed records of newsletter editors to determine whether they improperly profited from trading stock in companies they wrote about.

"I've worked hard for the past eight years helping to build MarketWatch and for the last year I've worked hard creating The Calandra Report," Calandra said. "While it's been tremendously rewarding professionally, it has also been stressful. And the SEC's informal inquiry adds to this stress. So I've decided to take this time off to focus on my family, whom I adore. I look forward to the conclusion of the SEC's inquiry."

More.........
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={7BB78C5B-B64A-45A1-869D-3A468788A670}&siteid=mktw

[54anickel]

42. Ewww. That's interesting. Wonder who else the SEC has in their sites.

[KoKo]

44. The article mentions crack downs at CNBC plus this tidbit about minerals

and mining stocks Calandra reported on. (It's a long article but very interesting all his connections in his career)

The Calandra Report focused on dozens of companies, most of them small-cap stocks and many involved in the minerals and mining business.

MarketWatch.com said in a press release that it would discontinue the newsletter and provide prorated refunds to subscribers.

[54anickel]

46. You love pointing out the hype, don't ya KoKo. ;-)

Great job!
Keep them youngins on their toes before they get fleeced down to the bone. It is a cruel market world these days alright.
Thanks again.

[UpInArms]

47. I have been receiving the Calandra report

for quite some time - I shall miss it :(

Here's what he had to say a few days back regarding the dollar:

The dollar's continued slide this year will embolden some currency speculators, says Chuck Butler, chief strategist at Everbank.com. "Liberties are going to be taken with the dollar now, whenever traders feel feisty enough to do so," Butler said about the currency markets. "They don't have the fear of a strong dollar policy as they once did."

Butler, whose Everbank.com in St. Louis allows individuals to shuttle dollars into foreign-denominated certificates of deposit, has been forecasting the dollar's decline for at least the past two years. His thesis is that investors are seeking the higher yields available on cash deposits in currencies other than the dollar. Market yields on U.S. Treasury bonds Monday morning were falling to historic lows, with the 10-year yield below 3.6 percent.

The dollar still has a way to go -- down, says Butler. "I'm still concerned about the speed euro traders are marking up the currency, but until I see any signs of a pullback," he says, "so you just go with the flow."

For now, stock market investors are paying little attention to the dollar's continuing cascade. Most must believe, as the Treasury secretary indicated, that cheaper dollars will help American exporters of goods and services, such as McDonald's (MCD) and Gillette (G), in their overseas businesses.

there was more than that, but I hate to worry about that copyright thing.

[54anickel]

48. Take heart UIA. The article states he's sitting out until the SEC is done

If he wasn't up to anything shady, he'll be back. Of course, if he WAS doing something shady - in this day and age - he may be catapulted to star status. :evilgrin:

That's a great clip by the way. I can see why you will miss it.

[UpInArms]

49. well, I shall have to

console myself by reading The Daily Reckoning twice a day (to make certain I don't miss anything) :)

[KoKo]

50. Hey....we are all trying to sift through all of this like blindmen because

how do we know the truth of anything....after the "Bubble" and Dumya Installed. What do we know?

But, since the market is basically Las Vegas in a weird way.....if you know what the game is about from reading many sources....you always are ahead of the game.

I think many of these folks on these website and who write these subscription Financial Newsletters assume we are sophisticated and have enough intelligence that we will "read between the lines" of what they are saying and see the cautions they've put in their articles. In most cases that's true!

Unfortunately. some of them forgot that the late 90's brought in a much more gullible group who were easily manipulated having lived through good times through most of their lives.

So, I go either way on these folks. One side of me says you need to realize your readers might be led astray by your reports....the other side says if you are sophisticated enough to read any financial sites and subscribe to their newsletters then you will know when the advice is good and when it isn't .

Then there's always the "fall guy" aspect with today's media. Martha did very little compared to the BIG HONCHO Crooks....but there she is being trashed with her "empire threatened" and Ken Lay is yukking it up along with Kozlowski somewhere in Sunny Spots on the Planet with everything they ever wanted in life, knowing the Chimp will take care of them.

Maybe Calandra got a bad rap. Or, maybe not.....who knows today. :crazy: