STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 13, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 314
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2608 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2334 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2625
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 12, 2008

Dow... 12,110.24 -46.57 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq... 2,243.87 -11.89 (-0.53%)
S&P 500... 1,308.77 -11.88 (-0.90%)
Gold future... 980.50 +4.50 (+0.46%)
30-Year Bond 4.41% -0.12 (-2.65%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48% -0.11 (-3.14%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

---

Watch out today! The Bernanke Fed has royally screwed up with that $200 billion bomb.

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Housing Update

Houston, We Have Lift Off
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The banking sector has taken an absolute beating over the last year as residential real estate losses surge and the penalty of lax lending standards comes home to roost. The sheer vertical lift off in delinquency rates and losses is astounding. Just take a look at the following charts.

-see scary charts-

It's no wonder the banking sector has seen billions eroded in equity value over the last year, and their residential losses show no signs of slowing. The end is nowhere in sight as banks continue to tighten the noose on lending standards. Higher lending standards are decreasing mortgage demand as tighter lending standards makes it harder for potential buyers to get a loan and for existing homeowners to refinance their adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). This is leading to a spike in foreclosure rates in both subprime and prime loans as homeowners who were barely able to afford the teaser rate on an ARM cannot afford the higher reset rate.

.....

Today’s Market

Stocks gave back part of yesterday’s rally as traders took profits with nine out of the ten S&P sectors finishing in the red. The industrial sector was the only sector finishing in the green after Caterpillar’s announcement after hours yesterday that it raised its 2010 revenue forecast to $60 billion, up from its previous forecast of $50 billion. Also supporting the industrial sector was GE’s announcement that it reaffirmed its 2008 profit guidance and gave a better than expected long term outlook.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[radfringe]

2. heckava job bushie -- WHERE'S the FREAKING TRICKLE???

Weak Dollar Boosts Foreign Manufacturing in U.S.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88132222

Morning Edition, March 12, 2008 · The dollar's slide against the euro means making goods in Europe for U.S. consumers is more expensive, so German automaker BMW is expanding its operations in America.

Sennheiser, another Germany company which makes often-expensive microphones and headsets, has been manufacturing products in New Mexico for years and may expand U.S. operations further.

Some Businesses Benefit from Weak DollarFeb. 27, 2008
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18726158

'Made in China' Is Cheap No MoreMarch 10, 2008
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=65080288

'Marketplace' Report: BMW Moving to U.S.March 12, 2008
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88045542

Caterpillar's Business Not Crawling Overseas
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88132212


President Bush Shares His Outlook For The Economy & His Final Months In Office
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/080312a/
Wednesday, March 12, 2008

SUSIE GHARIB: President Bush told NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT today that he would like to see a stronger dollar. His comments came as the dollar hit a new low against the euro. It now takes $1.55 to buy one euro. The president said one way to stem the dollar's slide is to quote send signals to the world that overseas money is welcome in the United States. That was a key point the president made in a speech this morning, as he pressed his case for a free trade agreement with Colombia. Trade was one of the topics I discussed with President Bush when I sat down with him in the White House earlier today for a wide-ranging interview about the economy and other business issues. Mr. President, thank you for joining us today.

BUSH: Thanks. Welcome.

GHARIB: Let's begin by talking about trade. You were pushing hard today for a free trade agreement with Colombia. As you know, many polls show that Americans are very skeptical about trade. They're worried about the economy and they think that free trade means lost jobs. So why are you pushing for trade given the economic concerns?

BUSH: Well, first of all, I understand that trade creates anxieties amongst some of our citizens. I think the reason they do is that they're worried about either themselves or their neighbors losing a job as a result of trade. I mean, they hear stories about plants shutting down because of trade. And I understand those concerns. As I said in my speech today, however, the way to address those concerns is to actually provide benefits and educational opportunities for people to get the skills necessary to fill the jobs that are growing in America. I'm for trade because I know what it means to the overall economy. About 40 percent of our growth last year, which was fairly robust at times, was a result of us selling products into other markets.

I'm also for trade because it, like, makes sense. If you produce something somebody wants around the world, you want to be able to sell that product into a market at a lower cost. And when there's tariffs and barriers to trade that exist, it makes it harder to be able to move your product. And in this case, I was focusing on Colombia, which is going to be the next free trade vote up. That vote has national security implications to it. I think -- look, what I'm worried about is the nation losing its confidence and erecting barriers and saying we don't want to compete anymore and we don't want to open up markets and we're shutting down our market. And that will do a couple of things. One, it will be missed opportunity for our businesses and farmers; but also it could run up the cost of goods for our American citizens because the more goods there are coming into our country, the more opportunities there are for our consumers. It's likely to keep prices lower.

---snip---

GHARIB: Well, you've pressed OPEC to increase oil production

BUSH: I did.

GHARIB: And they didn't do it. Let's say that OPEC did pump more oil. How much do you think that that would bring down oil prices, by $20, $30?

BUSH: You know, I don't know. You're going to have to ask the experts that. I'm just a simple president.*** But I really don't know what it would do. I do know that the main problem is supply and demand and excess supply obviously would help. Obviously demand is going to slow down a little bit. It's going to slow down some here in America. I don't know whether China's demand will slow down appreciably or not. But the two main economies that are driving this excess demand is the U.S. and China. And one thing is for certain for the longer term, is that we have got to become less dependent on oil, foreign oil. And I gave a speech the other day to the renewable energies conference that laid out our agenda that does just that.

===========

***make that a simpleton pResident

[ozymandius]

4. Simpleton = Straw Down His Back

Gone forever are the halcyon days of giant banners over the deck of aircraft carriers.

[TalkingDog]

33. ooooo awesome haiku

Simpleton, straw down his back
Gone forever are
fair days of the mock hero.


I like it.

[0007]

99. There is a lot to enjoy

So bye-bye, miss american pie. Drove my chevy to the levee, But the levee was dry. And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye ...Singing "Is this the day I'm gonna die?"

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.0%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/08
Briefing Forecast 360K
Market Expects 355K
Prior 351K

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.8%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Feb
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.6%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Jan
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.6%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[ozymandius]

15. Ahead of the Bell: Unemployment Benefits

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Government data due out Thursday is forecast to show that initial claims filed for unemployment benefits rose last week after an unexpectedly large drop in the previous period.

Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR expect claims rose by 7,000 to 358,000 for the week ended March 8. The Department of Labor is scheduled to release the data at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080313/unemployment_benefits_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1

[Pale Blue Dot]

36. Retail sales fell by a much worse-than-expected 0.6 percent in February

Breaking on MSNBC.

:scared:

[UpInArms]

48. 8:30 reports - initial claims @ 353,000 - last wk rev'd up 2,000

03. U.S. February export prices rise 0.9%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

04. U.S. February petroleum import prices fall 1.5%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

05. U.S. February import prices rise 13.6% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

06. U.S. February import prices rise 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

07. U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing claims rise 24,500 to 2.81 mln
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

08. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 7,000 to 2.83 million
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

09. U.S. Feb. retail sales ex-autos, ex-gas down 0.1%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

10. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims fall 1,250 to 358,500
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

11. U.S. Feb. retail gas sales fall 1.0%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

12. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims unchanged at 353,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

13. U.S. Feb. retail auto sales fall 1.9%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

14. U.S. retail sales up 2.6% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

15. U.S. Feb. retail sales ex-autos fall 0.2% vs. +0.1% seen
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

16. U.S. Feb. retail sales fall 0.6% vs. 0.0% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

79. U.S. Jan. business inventories up 0.8% vs. 0.6% expected

01. U.S. Jan. retail inventories rise 0.4%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 1 minute ago

02. U.S. Jan. inventory-sales ratio matches record-low 1.25
10:00 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. Jan. business inventories up 0.8% vs. 0.6% expected
10:00 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 1 minute ago

04. U.S. Jan. business sales up 1.5%, most in 10 months
10:00 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 1 minute ago

[ozymandius]

5. Oil above $110, close to record

SINGAPORE - Oil prices on Thursday were near an overnight record above $110 a barrel as investors looked to commodities as a safe haven against the U.S. dollar's slide.

In Asia, the dollar sank to a 12-year low against the yen and hit a record low against the euro amid concerns about the flagging U.S. economy. Many analysts believe the greenback's decline is the reason crude futures have surged to new records in 11 of the past 12 sessions, despite the fact that crude supplies have risen 10.2 percent since early January.

Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is weak.

.....

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 21 cents to $110.13 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore, holding just below Wednesday's record trading high of $110.20 a barrel.

Oil prices initially fell Wednesday in New York trading after the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said crude supplies rose 6.2 million barrels last week, more than three times the 1.6 million barrels forecast by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But buyers quickly returned to the market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

106. Crude touches new high of $111 a barrel

02. Crude touches new high of $111 a barrel
10:51 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 15 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

6. Stocks slip on rethink of Fed plan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Wednesday as optimism receded about the Federal Reserve's latest initiative to ease credit market strains, while a jump in oil prices to a record above $110 a barrel raised fears of further strains on corporate profits.

Financial shares dragged indexes lower a day after the market posted its best day in five years. Tuesday's gains came in response to a coordinated effort by central banks to free up credit markets that have nearly ground to a halt in the wake of the U.S. housing meltdown.
.....

But the main focus remained a plan led by the U.S. Federal Reserve to expand a lending program and accept as collateral a broader base of securities, including mortgage bonds whose value has dropped as the housing bubble burst.

"One bold move by the Fed doesn't solve all the problems and all the issues," said Georges Yared, chief investment officer at Yared Investment Research in Wayzata, Minnesota.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080313/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[ozymandius]

7. Carlyle Capital in default, on brink of collapse

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Carlyle Capital Corp (CARC.AS), an affiliate of private equity firm Carlyle Group (CYL.UL), said on Thursday it was in default on margin calls of over $400 million, and said its lenders would likely take possession of its remaining assets.

The news provided another sign of stress in global credit markets and in Europe, where Carlyle Capital shares are listed in Amsterdam, bund futures rose back to levels they traded at before the Federal Reserve and its European counterparts coordinated on Tuesday to inject liquidity into credit markets.

Earlier in Asia, the default prompted spreads to widen on the iTRAXX Asia ex-Japan investment grade index.

Carlyle Capital said it was unable to meet its margin calls and was now in default on about $16.6 billion of its debt.
.....

Carlyle Capital said it was unable to pay the margin calls, so its lenders had proceeded to foreclose on the mortgage-backed securities collateral. The only assets held in its portfolio as of Wednesday were U.S. government agency AAA-rated residential mortgage-backed securities.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080313/bs_nm/carlylecapital_lenders_dc

[ozymandius]

8. Lenders to liquidate Carlyle unit

Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC), a unit of the private equity firm Carlyle Group, has said it will not be able to meet lenders' demands for money.

The US mortgage-backed bond fund will collapse if, as expected, its lenders liquidate the fund to take possession of its remaining assets.

CCC is the latest casualty of the declining US housing market.

Its shares were suspended last week after some lenders forced it to sell assets to get their cash back.
.....

CCC's collapse will lose its clients some $600m, according to Simon Denham, managing director at Capital Spreads.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7293663.stm

[formercia]

29. Breaks my heart.

:evilgrin:

I hope Poppy took a hit.

[UpInArms]

65. Poppy only plays with OPM - and I'm certain he took a cut

and put that money into righter, tighter, whiter and more elitist hands.

I hate that m***f***er - he is the spawn of the devil and spawns them and he has created more destruction than almost anyone else on this planet.

[Hugin]

59. Wait... wait... I'm going to shed a tear here.

Ah, nevermind.

NEXT!

[DemReadingDU]

109. Text of Carlyle Capital Statement

March 13, 2008 6:55 a.m.

Carlyle Capital Corporation Unable To Reach Agreement With Lenders; Lenders Likely to Take Possession of Remaining Assets

New York, NY -- Carlyle Capital Corporation Limited today announced that, although it has been working diligently with its lenders, the Company has not been able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement to stabilize its financing. The Company expects that its lenders will promptly take possession of substantially all of the Company's remaining assets.

The only assets held in the Company's portfolio as of today are U.S. government agency AAA-rated residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). During the last seven business days, the Company received margin calls in excess of $400 million. As the Company was unable to pay these margin calls, its lenders proceeded to foreclose on the RMBS collateral. In total, through March 12, the Company has defaulted on approximately $16.6 billion of its indebtedness. The remaining indebtedness is expected soon to go into default.

The Company explored a variety of proposals with its lenders in an attempt to refinance its portfolio on sustainable terms. The Carlyle Group participated actively in those negotiations and was prepared to provide substantial additional capital if a successful refinancing could be achieved. Negotiations deteriorated late on March 12 when, among other things, the pricing service utilized by certain lenders reported a drop in the value of the RMBS collateral that is expected to result in additional margin calls tomorrow of approximately $97.5 million.

Overall, it has become apparent to the Company that the basis on which lenders are willing to provide financing against the Company's collateral has changed so substantially that a successful refinancing is not possible.

Source: Carlyle Capital Corp.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120540455758933187.html?mod=European-Business-News


additional info about the Carlyle Group...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120537974320632835.html?mod=djm_HAWSJSB_Welcome

[ozymandius]

12. Dollar Falls to 12-Year Low of 100 Yen on Carlyle Fund Failure

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time since 1995 and to a record low against the euro after a Carlyle Group fund moved closer to collapse, triggering concern of more turmoil in financial markets.

The dollar was close to parity with the Swiss franc and slumped against the British pound after Carlyle said lenders will take over the assets of its mortgage-bond fund and President George W. Bush acknowledged the U.S. currency's decline was not ``good tidings.'' The dollar's drop may prompt Middle East central banks to reduce holdings of the currency, Greg Gibbs, a strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney, said in a report.

``Investors are getting out of dollar assets and this is going to lead to a dollar crash,'' said Tetsuhisa Hayashi, chief currency manager of foreign-exchange trading in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest publicly traded lender. ``The U.S. economy is getting worse.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8q2vC2.8OyU&refer=home

[DemReadingDU]

27. Bloomberg: Carlyle Capital Nears Collapse as Rescue Talks Fail

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund moved a step closer to collapse after failing to reach an agreement with lenders who demanded more than $400 million to meet margin calls.

Concern about the fate of Carlyle Capital Corp., which began to buckle a week ago from the strain of tumbling home-loan assets, helped push the dollar to a 12-year low against the yen today. The fund said in a statement that it defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt as of yesterday. Lenders will ``promptly'' take over all of its remaining assets and any remaining debt is expected ``soon'' to go into default, Carlyle Capital said.

Carlyle Capital plunged as much as 70 percent in Amsterdam trading. Carlyle Group, co-founded by David Rubenstein, tapped public markets for $300 million in July to fuel the fund just as rising foreclosures caused credit markets to seize up. In the past month, at least a dozen funds have closed, sold assets or sought fresh capital as banks tightened lending standards.

``If Carlyle's lenders want their money right away, they'll liquidate the fund,'' said Hank Calenti, a London-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets. ``That will put pressure on already stressed credit markets.''

Carlyle Capital's plea for refinancing on residential mortgage-backed securities failed late yesterday after a pricing service used by some lenders reported a decrease in the value of the assets, the firm said.

more...
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a27ldweXtg0Y&refer=home

[Robbien]

71. So now the banks are out $16 billion

Less the few Fannie/Freddie securities.

As Carlyle Capital skips free of its obligations in bankruptcy court.

[antigop]

84. "the only thing that will save them now is more war! fasten your seatbelts."

Comment from Laura Loon in the comments area at rawstory.com

http://rawstory.com/comments/46246.html

[ozymandius]

9. Merrill Lynch posts $7.8bn loss

Wall Street banking giant Merrill Lynch has unveiled a huge loss for 2007, crippled by exposure to risky investments in the US housing market.

It made a net loss of $7.8bn (£3.9bn) in the 12 months to the end of December from a net profit of $7.5bn in 2006.

The loss includes a massive $14.1bn write-down on failed investments related to sub-prime mortgages.

Merrill Lynch is the latest big bank to reveal losses related to the crisis in the US mortgage market.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7193915.stm

[Warpy]

63. Institutional investor news is going to be bad for some time to come

because the worst of the bad ARMs--the jumbo ARMs--will be resetting through 2009. Anybody who snapped up those structured investment vehicles and other funny paper from hedge funds is going to find themselves eating a lot of bad debt.

It seems greed is not so good, after all.

[antigop]

87. the problem is that if a lot of corporate pension funds have this cr*p in their

portfolios, I think corporations will freeze their pension plans, terminate them, and/or somehow manage to turn the plans over to the PBGC.

The state and municipal plans that have this stuff will have to find ways to increase funding -- less services, more taxes, etc.

Not good, not good.

[Warpy]

91. The real problem is that a lot of government pension plans

are heavily laden with this stuff, the pension plans that "allowed" people to opt out of paying Social Security taxes. Now those people who contributed all their lives are going to find themselves with unfunded pensions and I doubt Uncle Sugar is going to bail those out.

[antigop]

94. The problem is ...in some states benefits are protected by state constitutions

So the states have a problem if they try to reduce/eliminate pension payments.

I will try to find a link....

<edit> That's why the states are kind of in a bind. That's why I made the comment about them having to make up the funding in the plan by increased taxes or reduced services.

[DemReadingDU]

124. My spouse's pension plan

My spouse retired as union construction worker.

We have received a letter indicating that IF the pension plan were to be turned over to the PBGC, he would only get a portion of what he gets now from his pension.

They say IF, I think the word is going to be WHEN.

This not a good sign.

[antigop]

132. and if a lot of plans get turned over to the PBGC and the PBGC is underfunded,

who will bail out the PBGC?

I doubt taxpayers who aren't covered by pension plans will want their tax dollars going to bailout a fund which will not benefit them.

It will pit citizens against one another. At the federal level, people who are in plans covered by the PBGC will lobby for a bailout. They will be pitted against those who don't want their tax dollars going to bail out something that will not benefit them.

At the state level,the citizens will be divided into two camps as well: those who are covered by state pension plans and will want the state to honor its commitment, and those who won't want to pay for a bailout through increased taxes/reduced spending on services.

This happened in our local community recently. One of the city pension funds was extremely underfunded. There were two camps of people: those who felt the city should honor its commitments and pay up, and those who didn't want their tax dollars going for a bailout.

The net of all of this as I see it, will be
1)the division of the country into two camps
2) litigation by those who have a legal right to their benefits because the benefits are protected by law

The implications of this mess are, indeed, overwhelming.

[DemReadingDU]

137. Overwhelming

Maybe if the government wasn't spending $12 billion in Iraq every month, we would have the money to fix everything.

[antigop]

138. Yep. n/t

[antigop]

153. deleted -- wrong spot n/t

[kineneb]

141. Once again the little guy...

the honest, hard-working, play-by-the-rules little guy gets stiffed, and the big guys get to pocket their ill-gotten "profits".

"Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose"... sing it Janis!

And we are the ones with nothing left to lose.

[Dr.Phool]

180. Good luck. The PBGC cut my pension twice.

I', now getting about a third of what I started out at.

And on top of that, they're keeping 10% each month to repay what they say I was overpaid. They'll keep taking 10% until the year 2067. When I'll be a nice, ripe 115 years old.

[DemReadingDU]

183. Well, that's not fair

PBGC only gives a percentage of the original pension, and then the pension is reduced again? Terrible news.

:(

[ozymandius]

10. Humana's Warning Is Latest Symptom Of HMO Sickness

Humana hum slashed its profit outlook Wednesday, the second major health insurer this week to issue a bleak 2008 forecast.

The HMO nearly halved its first-quarter profit forecast to 44 cents to 46 cents a share. Wall Street expected 84 cents.

Humana blamed higher-than-expected claims in its stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans. Its shares fell 14%.

That's a day after crashing 24% on a big warning by Wellpoint (NYSE:WLP) wlp, the largest HMO by membership.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/IBD-0001-23726933.htm

[ozymandius]

11. Policy makers to propose mortgage rules revamp: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. policy makers, led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, will recommend a revamp of rules on credit markets and mortgage brokers, to help avoid a repeat of the recent credit crunch, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

Paulson said in an interview that the President's Working Group of Financial Markets would recommend strengthening state and federal oversight of mortgage lenders and brokers.

The plan comes as the government and the Federal Reserve seek to fix a debilitated U.S. mortgage bond and housing markets.

Paulson is due to deliver a speech on financial markets on Thursday at the National Press Club at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSWEN446820080313

[Dr.Phool]

40. "I know there was a horse in here some place".

"Close that door,will ya".

[Adsos Letter]

207. closing the barn door...but the horses are already headed for the horizon...

:(

[ozymandius]

13. Stocks in Europe, Asia, U.S. Futures Drop; HBOS, Toyota Decline

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia dropped after Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund said it will default on its remaining debt and the dollar slumped against the euro and the yen, dimming the earnings outlook for banks and automakers. U.S. index futures retreated.

HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia led declines among banks on concern credit-market losses are worsening. Toyota Motor Corp. and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, which both make more than a quarter of their sales in the Americas, fell as the dollar sank below 100 yen for the first time in more than 12 years.

The MSCI World Index retreated 0.6 percent to 1,422.23 as of 9:25 a.m. in London. The gauge of 23 developed markets had rallied for two days on the Federal Reserve's plan to inject as much as $200 billion into the financial system. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 1.3 percent.

......

Asian stocks sank to a seven-week low today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.1 percent, the biggest drop since March 7. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 3.3 percent to the lowest since Aug. 31, 2005. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slumped 4.8 percent, the most in five weeks.

......

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index sank 2.1 percent, snapping a two-day advance. France's CAC retreated 2.5 percent, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 lost 2.1 percent. Germany's DAX decreased 2.4 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aXuPzEoFCrb0

[ozymandius]

14. Foreclosure Activity Rises in February

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Nearly 60 percent more U.S. homes faced foreclosure in February than in the same month last year, with Nevada, California and Florida showing the highest foreclosure rates, a research firm said Wednesday.

A total of 223,651 homes across the nation received at least one notice from lenders last month related to overdue payments, up 59.8 percent from 139,922 a year earlier, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc.

Nearly half of the homes on the most recent list had slipped into default for the first time.

Nevada had the nation's highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 165 households receiving at least one foreclosure-related notice. It had 6,167 properties facing foreclosure, a 68 percent increase from a year earlier and up 1 percent from January, RealtyTrac said.

......

Meanwhile, the number of foreclosed properties that didn't sell at auction and ended up going back to lenders soared more than 110 percent last month versus February 2007, RealtyTrac said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080313/foreclosure_rates.html

[ozymandius]

16. Good *cough* morning folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

The Bernanke Bomb is a fizzle. It is my opinion that the Fed has no more options beyond the clandestine PPT operation. So please be careful today. Watch out for falling equities ... and bankers.

Ozy :hi:

[Roland99]

17. 6:40am - Dow futures ** -150 **

Zoinks!


Morning, ozy! :hi:

[burf]

23. Good morning Ozy, Roland, and all!

Looks like the train is picking up speed in its run downhill. It went through that 200 billion like it wasn't even there!

Have a great day!

[AnneD]

68. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. I got some news last week and I have had it on the back of my mind. The school district said that they will be laying off teachers. The protocol (and union contract states that lesser experienced teachers go first, and those with less 'building experience go next.Those that are laid off are put in a pool and are to be hired should a vacancy develop-and it usually does. What we are afraid some of these principals will can the more experienced teachers (read higher salaried) and use it as a way to lighten their budget. There will be a board meeting tonight so between angry parents and angry teachers-it should be interesting. Principals always look at School Nurses as a luxury so we are very sensitive to this. Fortunately, I am in far better shape this time around in a lay off situation than I was when I was in the oil biz. Not a week goes by that I don't have 2-3 job offers in my P.O. box. Our RV is paid for, the cars are paid for and I have a part time job lined up. I have 2 months of child support left to pay and that's over. We have a few bucks in savings. Hubby laughed and said that if I got laid off, it would be my first vacation in a while.:rofl:

I am glad that I am in good shape but I feel for those that aren't. It is always tough-physically and mentally. Anyway, time will tell, but you know when they start cutting things like this-it's about to get serious.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

76. NO Contract?

[AnneD]

86. The district has been phasing the ....

continuing contract out since 1998. After your probationary period, you do have a contract, but it isn't as iron clad as the old ones. That is why the union is fighting so hard and early about the seniority thing. That was part of the agreement when the continuing contracts were discontinued. Thank goodness we got the union friendly board members elected. That does give us a shot at a more fair arrangement.

[Demeter]

95. Good Luck Then

[Pale Blue Dot]

103. That scares me a little.

I just started teaching this year, and I considered this job fairly recession-proof. I know that I'm fine for next year, but beyond that, who knows.

[AnneD]

162. New teachers are always at risk...

Congrats...In the long term-you are better off as a teacher-it is fairly stable. Make sure you always dot your I's and cross your T's. Avoid debt, and bulk up your savings (your emergency savings-investment is another matter).

[Demeter]

61. Oh, I Don't Know--It's Taking Out the Fraud

This is a good time to be poor--these useless bastards who thought they owned the world don't have a clue on survival and will be literally wiped out before they catch on.

[Birthmark]

67. And some of 'em look...

...damned tasty. Too far?

[Demeter]

74. That's a long-range plan, perhaps

[kineneb]

143. on being poor- willing to teach SMW folks

we are living on $15K/yr. Willing to give survival tips, just ask.
:hi:

[Warpy]

64. Yeah, that sucker rally had to be the

highest and shortest in history!

What do you want to bet it still didn't teach that fool anything?

[Demeter]

77. Half a Billion per Point for 24 hours of relief

such a deal!

[AnneD]

88. Hey... I thought it was the...

Spitzer Rally.... and you could have used an egg timer to time it.

[Ghost Dog]

18. US Stocks Set For Dismal Start Thursday As Dollar Plumbs New Depths, Global Markets Tank

(RTTNews) - US stocks were facing serious headwinds Thursday morning over doubts that government actions can do much to prevent the US from slipping into a deep recession.

All of the euphoria surrounding Tuesday's plan by central banks to inject liquidity into frozen credit markets has since worn off. Stocks failed to hold onto Tuesday's significant gains on Wednesday and appear poised for a dismal start to Thursday's session.

As of 6 am ET, the S&P Futures were down 20 points, the Nasdaq Futures were down 21 points, and the S&P Futures were down 120 points.

The dollar stayed on the ropes versus other major currencies overnight, plumbing new depths versus the euro and dropping to a 12-year low versus the yen. Meanwhile, the price of light sweet crude continued to hover near the $110 mark, near yesterday's record highs.

Global stocks were a sea of red on Thursday. In Asian, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong plunged 1,121 points and the Tokyo's Nikkei dropped 427 points.

In European intraday dealing, the FTSE of the UK was down 117 points, the DAX of Germany was down 160 points, and the CAC of France was down 113 points. Inflation expectations in the UK climbed to a new series high, results of a survey revealed Thursday.

/.. http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20080313\ACQRTT200803130638RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0397.htm

[Ghost Dog]

19. Euro= USD 1.561, GBP 0.766, CHF 1.573 and JPY 156.1 at this time

[TalkingDog]

34. Every time I read about how the new thing will work, but then it doesn't:

I get the image of hordes of fat chilren in a candy store, mouths smeared with red goo. Pointing at every new, shiny pretty and going, "look, that looks tasty" taking one bite, losing interest as they realize it isn't satisfying them, then walking to the next shiny pretty. And what they don't realize is that even though they are obese, the treats arn't nourishing them. They are full and starving.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

134. ala Augustus Gloop.

[Joanne98]

20. Asian Markets Plunge on US Woes

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Asian markets plunged Thursday after Wall Street's retreat from its biggest rally in five years, with investors worried by the sliding dollar and ongoing troubles in the U.S. economy. European shares also opened lower.

The dollar's drop to a 12-year low against the yen hammered stocks of Japanese exporters such as Toyota and Sony. The Nikkei 225 index tumbled 3.3 percent to 12,433.4, its lowest in 2 1/2 years.

In late Tokyo trading, the dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time since 1995, sinking as low as 99.75 yen.

Asian markets, which had rallied Wednesday on news of the U.S. Federal Reserve's $200 billion relief plan for tight credit markets, resumed their slide amid pessimism that the move will prevent a U.S. recession.

"This is just an extremely nervous market given the uncertainties overhanging the outlook for the world," said David Cohen, a regional economist with Action Economics in Singapore. "The clouds are the combination of the oil prices, the nervousness about the U.S. slipping into recession and dragging down the global economy and ... the turmoil in the credit markets that doesn't want to go away."

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 4.8 percent to 22,301.6. Benchmark indices fell more than 2 percent in Australia, China, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan, while markets in India and Indonesia lost more than 4 percent.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080313/world_markets.html

[Joanne98]

21. CEO of Barricks named chairman of the World Gold Council

WORLD GOLD COUNCIL (London) -- Greg C. Wilkins was named chairman of this marketing organization funded by gold mining companies. Mr. Wilkins, 52, succeeds Pierre Lassonde, whose term expired. Mr. Wilkins is president and chief executive of Barrick Gold Corp.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120538038182932869.html?mod=yahoo_hs

[Birthmark]

22. So, will gold hit the $1,000 mark today?

Looks like it has a shot.

[JNelson6563]

26. If not today, tomorrow.

:toast:

[Birthmark]

28. There's gonna be some happy gold bugs!

They've been waiting for this day for a while. And I think that they've got many celebrations ahead of them in the next year or two.

[roamer65]

38. Yay! I hope today is the day!

:bounce:

[bentley]

42. Gold hit $1000

and then quickly pulled back.

[Roland99]

44. Dipping its toes in the water. Question is, does the water feel fine?

[TalkingDog]

47. Gold Link

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7381623



really...gotta run.

[UpInArms]

50. CNN: Gold prices hit $1,000 milestone

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/markets/gold/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gold prices touched the $1,000 milestone for the first time ever Thursday as the dollar plunged and amid fears about the health of the U.S. economy.

After weeks of flirting with the key psychological mark, COMEX gold for April climbed to $1,000 an ounce in floor trading. Prices have since pared their gains and were most recently up $16.60 to $997.10 an ounce.

Sending prices higher were concerns about the U.S. economy and another drop in the dollar, which hit a 12-year low against the yen and scaled another record low versus the euro.

...a bit more...

:toast:

[Roland99]

35. And will it accelerate after breaking that barrier? (like oil and $100)

[Birthmark]

37. I *think* it will.

But I'm not even close to an expert. I just base that on the stupidity of the Fed. It's been a winning premise so far, though. Unfortunately.

[Roland99]

46. I think so, too. Commodities are where money is flocking to which drives up the prices.

Which in turn causes inflation in basic items for the average household which in turn weakens their buying power and, hence, they buy fewer non-necessities and businesses make less money and down the rabbit hole we go.

That's why it's so important for all of these "free trade" agreements to exist in order for American global conglomerates to keep expanding their markets to continue making that all-important money because, as we all know, corporate profits and stock prices are paramount in today's world. :eyes:

[Birthmark]

51. But even commodities are a temporary haven, imo

If the American consumer stops buying, as appears to be happening, then even the price of commodities will be forced down eventually. This looks very bad to me. I can't see anything that can be inflated (and let's face it, we've been running on balloon power for 15 or 20 years) to jump start the economy. No one really has money. Everyone seems to be holding IOUs at this point and any money created is going to pay those off. IOW, the money will just move around without doing much.

So what I see is a period of inflation, possibly very severe inflation, followed by some deflation --also possibly severe.

The Fed looks hamstrung to me. If they create money, they cause inflation. (This looks to be where they're headed short-term.) If they tighten the money supply, then things get ugly quickly... I just don't see what the Fed can do. There's seven or more years worth of debt to pay off. Yes, inflation allows those debts to be paid with smaller dollars...but the inflation will probably be devastating.

Anyhow, that's how I see it. Again, I'm not even close to an expert. Just some guy on the internet.

[Roland99]

54. As are we all (mostly) :-)

And look how much we get things right vs. all of these "surprised economists".

Makes ya think, eh?

[Birthmark]

60. I was ranting to my wife this morning about economists

I saw another economist yesterday finally pointing out something that I pointed out several years ago --that the Bush expansion was entirely fueled by debt. It irritates me that these professionals seem to be behind the curve so often.

A lot of the people that post in this thread are, imo, very on top of things. I've learned a lot here. Thanks to all my teachers.

[Warpy]

82. We "some guys on the internet" seem to be doing better

than many of the great experts out there. Perhaps economics does really boil down to the intuitive "live within your means, save as much as you can, buy low, sell high, stay out of debt" more than it does the esoteric formulae that have netted so many Nobel prizes in economics and led to such spectacular collapses when they broke down (See: LTCM).

The Fed is largely hamstrung. At this point, there is nothing much they can do to stop the fall. The core economy has been run on the GOP principle of everything flowing down from the top too long. No economy that relies on debt at the bottom can sustain itself for long. When people are left with a huge part of the monthly budget going to servicing debt, they cut back to subsistence living and that bodes ill for any company that sells other goods and services.

Personally, I think the dollar is now undervalued due to boneheaded Fed moves. It's time to raise rates rather than cut them. The Dow is going to fall no matter what they do, so they might as well keep our debt attractive to foreign central banks by raising the rate they get on it, thus making dollars a little more attractive than pesos.

It seems that no matter how hard they push on one end of the string, the end that is falling off the table is going to keep dropping down.

[Birthmark]

90. I'm just sorta guessing here, but...

...wouldn't the Fed have to raise rates 300+bps to have any useful effect on the greenback at this point?

[Warpy]

98. Nope

They just have to make sure that there is return on the debt that isn't being eaten up by a projected fall in the dollar. Central banks aren't as greedy as the McBank down the street, and a 1-2% return on a billion dollar debt is seen as a good return.

[Robbien]

85. The commodies are being played into our next bubble

The hedge funders piled into real estate and complex financial derivatives. With the collapse, the gamblers are on the move again, and the only place left is commodities. The Fed has thrown fuel on the fire by dramatically cutting interest rates, even as inflation grows, in a desperate race to revive the economy on the back of a commodities boom.

Commodities increases are a combination of Vegas style gambling and a Ponzi scheme.

There is no where else for these hedgers to go these days, so buckle up. Commodities are in for a long wild ride IMO.

[formercia]

92. Commodities, like patriotism, the last refuge of scoundrels.

Better make enough to tide you over and get out while the gittin' is still good.

[Birthmark]

93. Of course I agree.

But I don't think that commodities have the ability long term to do more than provide a couple of extra breaths before we go under. They are a soggy life preserver, imo.

[burf]

97. Is it just me or are we

again going to do another repeat in the ag sector of the 70s and 80s? The 70s being when the commodity prices went up like mad and then in the 80s farm auctions seemed to be the order of the day.

[Birthmark]

104. off the top of my head...

...ag prices could be one area where we (normal people) could luck up. My reasoning goes like this: Consumers won't be so fixated on buying the biggest, juiciest tomato because they're expensive. Small farmers won't be able to afford the fancy patented designer seeds from Monsanto and might go back to the cheaper seeds since they require less up front money. If both of those assumptions are true, then ag prices (locally, at least) seem like they should go down. No clue what will happen in the Exchanges, though.

But that is all the sketchiest of guesswork and represents almost the whole of my knowledge of ag commodities.

There's probably someone around here who can give you an informed answer. I'll be very interested to see such an answer.

[burf]

107. Hopefully

what you say is correct and Community Supported Agriculture will kick in.

[Robbien]

100. Trillions of dollars are being taken out of private equity and financial derivatives

and plowed into food and raw materials. I've read some financial websites calling it the "commodities super-cycle". Speculators are even placing their bets on water prices.

Yes, I agree this bubble will be short-lived. But trillions of dollars gambled on food can do a lot of damage worldwide before the bubble bursts. Right now many are being hurt badly in the poorer nations due to current commodity prices.

[formercia]

101. There isn't enough precious metals to run the economy with

The Platinum Group metals owe their value to economic demand. Once the economy begins to retract, the demand and the price will fall. The value of Gold is only a tiny fraction of the value currency in circulation.

Perhaps we will see Million dollar an ounce Gold.

[DemReadingDU]

24. Healthcare fraud trial in Columbus, Ohio - Update

3/13/08 Defendants' lives weren't always cushy, lawyers say

The jury is still out on the fate of five former National Century executives accused of playing a role in the nation's largest case of private fraud.

Deliberations are expected to continue this morning on whether the five should be held criminally responsible in the collapse of National Century Financial Enterprises.

While company investors lost more than $1.9 billion, the defendants -- and others awaiting trial -- were living large. That lifestyle was epitomized by a photo of company founder Lance K. Poulsen on his 60-foot yacht that was published while he was under investigation, prosecutors say. Poulsen's trial on fraud and other charges is expected to begin in the summer.

Executives for the Dublin-based health-care financing company were paid hefty salaries and nearly always received five-figure quarterly bonuses. But that world was vastly different from the defendants' beginnings, defense attorneys said. A picture of their past emerged during the trial.

more...
http://dispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/03/13/NatCen_defendants.ART_ART_03-13-08_C12_UB9KJP8.html?sid=101


link to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3222486&mesg_id=3222586

[DemReadingDU]

25. The Fall of the American Consumer

***warning***
some unusual ways to save on dental floss
***warning***


3/12/08 The Fall of the American Consumer
by Barbara Ehrenreich

How much lower can consumer spending go? The malls are like mausoleums, retail clerks are getting laid off and AOL recently featured on its welcome page the story of a man so cheap that he recycles his dental floss–hanging it from a nail in his garage until it dries out.

It could go a lot lower of course. This guy could start saving the little morsels he flosses out and boil them up to augment the children’s breakfast gruel. Already, as the recession or whatever it is closes in, people have stopped buying homes and cars and cut way back on restaurant meals. They don’t have the money; they don’t have the credit; and increasingly they’re finding that no one wants their money anyway.

The Sharper Image has declared bankruptcy and is closing ninety-six US stores. (To think I missed my chance to buy those headphones that treat you to forest sounds while massaging your temples!) Victoria’s Secret is so desperate that it’s adding fabric to its undergarments. Starbucks had no sooner taken time off to teach its baristas how to make coffee than it started laying them off.

“Shop till you drop,” was our motto, by which we didn’t mean to say we were more compassion-worthy than a woman fainting at her work station in some Honduran sweatshop. It was just our proper role in the scheme of things. Some people make stuff; other people have to buy it. And when we gave up making stuff, starting in the 1980s, we were left with the unique role of buying. Remember Bush telling us, shortly after 9/11, to get out there and shop? It may have seemed ludicrous at the time, but what he meant was get back to work.

And what happens to us, the world’s erstwhile shoppers? The President recently observed, in one of his more sentient moments, that unemployment is “painful.” But if a pink slip hurts, what about a letter from Citicard announcing that you’ve been laid off as a shopper? Will we fill our vacant hours twisting recycled dental floss onto spools or will we decide that, if we can’t shop, we’re going to have to shoplift?

Because we’ve shopped till we dropped alright, face down on the floor.

more...
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/03/12/7633/

[Demeter]

72. "Victoria’s Secret is so desperate that it’s adding fabric to its undergarments"

That has GOT to be the quote of the day!

[DemReadingDU]

30. a big US bank is in trouble - possibly Bear Stearns

3/13/08 Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts Wall Street fears a big US bank is in trouble

Global stock markets may have cheered the US Federal Reserve yesterday, but on Wall Street the Fed's unprecedented move to pump $280 billion (£140 billion) into global markets was seen as a sure sign that at least one financial institution was struggling to survive.

The name on most people's lips was Bear Stearns. Although the Fed billed the co-ordinated rescue as a way of improving liquidity across financial markets, economists and analysts said that the decision appeared to be driven by an urgent need to stave off the collapse of an American bank.

“The only reason the Fed would do this is if they knew one or more of their primary dealers actually wasn't flush with cash and needed funds in a hurry,” Simon Maughan, an analyst with MF Global in London, said.

Mr Maughan said that the most likely victim was Bear Stearns, the first bank to run into trouble in the sub-prime crisis and the one that, among all wholesale and investment banks, is most reliant upon the use of mortgage securities for raising funds in the money markets.

Speculation has swirled for months about the collapse of an American bank as the credit crisis has escalated and spread from sub-prime to other mortgage-backed securities, treasuries and bonds. As well as Bear Stearns, attention has focused on UBS, the Swiss bank, which has been forced to make more than $18 billion in sub-prime writedowns, and Citigroup, the world's largest financial institution, which has turned to sovereign wealth funds to help to shore up its credit-stricken balance sheet.

more...
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3542775.ece

[Robbien]

123. Bear Stearns business was in collecting fees on arranging CDOs

They have very little other activity. Of course their revenue dropped 87%. Of course they should be going under. Their business model is broken.

But here we are, propping them up.

Stupidity.

[DemReadingDU]

142. Bear Stearns Plummets on Insolvency Fear

NEW YORK — The market continued to hammer Bear Stearns Cos. on Thursday as concerns about the bank's solvency rattled its shares.

Whispers that the New York-based bank is in trouble dragged the company's stock to its cheapest price since just after the September 11th terrorist attacks.

Punk Ziegel analyst Richard X. Bove said people are worried that Bear Stearns has a lot of investments it will not be able to sell. A distaste for risk in certain corners of the bond market has depressed the value of a slew of types of investments and drained liquidity from the market.

Bear Stearns lends money to hedge funds, some of which are running into trouble themselves, Bove said. Some of these beleaguered hedge funds are surrendering their investments to Bear Stearns, which only piles on more paper the bank is unable to sell, he said.

"You can't sell them, and therefore your balance sheet is getting locked," he said.

Bear Stearns' stock plummeted more than 13 percent to $53.41. The stock earlier in the session touched as low as $50.48, the cheapest trade since 2001. The shares, which neared $160 last April, are down more than 20 percent this week and down 30 percent so far this year.

Bove said the plunge in the stock suggests the market is handicapping a better than 50 percent chance Bear Stearns goes bankrupt.

He said that fear makes sense, but he does not think the Federal Reserve will allow that to happen. The Fed would bail Bear Stearns out before allowing the bank to dump upward of $275 billion of tainted investments on a market that currently has little appetite for risk, he said.

Bove believes Bear Stearns was on the Fed's mind when it unveiled a plan to swap $200 billion in Treasuries with banks for hard-to-sell mortgage debt.

Bear Stearns has denied rumors it is facing a liquidity squeeze. A call to the company Thursday wasn't immediately returned.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5616580.html

[UpInArms]

31. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 71.952 Change -0.346 (-0.45%)

Yen Breaks 100 - Are We in A Runaway Market?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Yen_Breaks_100___Are_1205402732737.html

For the first time since 1995 yen was quoted in double instead of triple digits tonight, as USDJPY slipped below the 100 barrier hitting a low of 99.74 in early European trade. Euro meanwhile set another all time high breaking through the 1.5600 figure to trade at 1.5625 as anti-dollar sentiment ran rampant through the currency market

On a night when the economic calendar has been barren trade flows were dominated by continued concerns about the US economy and the Fed’s inability to solve the myriad financial problems facing capital markets. Risk aversion was the key story of the day as equity markets from Tokyo to Shanghai as well as London and Frankfurt all recorded triple digit losses. With currency traders clearly losing faith in Fed’s latest attempt to stabilize the credit markets, the greenback was pummeled throughout the night as sellers pushed it lower in a near continuous one way price action.

With the buck attracting few private buyers, rumors of an official interest out of Tokyo began to circulate on dealing desks, but so far the BoJ has not made any attempt to prop up the dollar. As we noted yesterday, “The US market, while still important to Japanese commercial interests is no longer the only source Japanese export growth and as such USDJPY exchange rate matter far less to Japanese policymakers than they did a few years ago.”

Thus any talk of BOJ intervention is likely to remain nothing more than idle speculation for the time being. However, buck’s chronic weakness clearly cannot continue for much longer with G-7 policy makers beginning to worry about the prospect of a runaway market away from the dollar that could create massive instability in the global financial system. Up to now any official policy initiates to retard dollar’s decline have been relatively tepid but if the unit sees no relief in sight central banks may consider joint intervention into order to cool speculative sentiment and create some semblance of rebalancing in the FX market.

In US today, event calendar carries Retail Sales, and given the volatility of overnight trade the report may not have any impact on price action. However, if the number does print better than forecast, it may provide some relief to the persistent drumbeat of dollar selling, indicating that the US consumer has not yet gone into a full scale hibernation mode.

...more...

Forex News: Carlyle Failure Sparks Dollar and Equity Sell Off.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/top_fx_market_movers/Forex_News__Carlyle_Failure_Sparks_1205405468658.html

• USDJPY – Japanese industrial production recorded its lowest monthly output in over a year in January, declining 2.2%. Overall shipments were down as production in electrical machinery fell by 8.2 percent followed by a 4.5 percent decline in transport equipment. In a separate report, Tokyo condominium sales fell 28 percent, declining for the sixth straight month. The current housing slump has weighed on consumer confidence and spending which has increased the calls for a rate reduction, putting pressure on the BoJ. For more news and resources please visit our Yen Currency Room.
• AUDUSD – Australian employers hired 36,700 workers last month, more than twice the 15,000 estimated. Strong Chinese demand has led to job growth in areas such as mining. The tight labor market is fueling wage inflation which has led to the RBA raising rates twice in the last five weeks. Expectations are that hiring will start to slow on the impact of the U.S. slowdown, which is leading to speculation that the central bank may be done tightening for the time being. However, if Asia can continue to show signs of decoupling from the American economy, demand for Australian commodities will continue to grow and stoke inflation, forcing the MPC to consider more hikes. For more news and resources please visit our Australian Dollar Currency Room.

• U.S. To Revamp Credit Rules, Drawing Form Credit Crisis. – Wall Street Journal
• Spitzer Steps Down, Has No Deal To Avoid Prosecution – Wall Street Journal
• Dollar Weakness Leads To Equity Sell Off – Financial Times
• Carlyle Fund Fails To Reach Deal With Lenders – Financial Times
• Treasuries Gain As Carlyle Group Fails To Reach Lender Accord. – Bloomberg
• Obama Tax Plan Focuses on Inequality , Clinton Focuses on Behavior – Bloomberg



...more...

[UpInArms]

32. this one called out to be found -

Obama Tax Plan Stresses Inequality, Clinton Focuses on Behavior

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both propose significant changes to the tax code that would add to its complexity. His plan emphasizes income inequality, while hers seeks to change Americans' behavior.

Obama's proposal would shift the tax burden toward the rich from low- and middle-income workers. Clinton proposes targeted tax breaks designed to change the way Americans use energy, save money and care for elders.

Obama, 46, ``seems to have focused on redistribution,'' said Michael Graetz, a professor at Yale Law School in New Haven, Connecticut, and a former Treasury official.

Clinton, 60, ``is proposing tax credits for everything short of flossing your teeth,'' said Lee Sheppard, a tax lawyer and columnist at Tax Analysts in Falls Church, Virginia.

The two candidates' plans -- especially Clinton's -- would further complicate a tax system that experts say is already Byzantine. Obama would tweak and augment current laws, while Clinton would introduce even more rules by adding at least nine new credits with complex qualification requirements, phase-outs and sliding scales.

`Complicate the Process'

``The inevitable consequence,'' said Joel Slemrod, an economist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, ``is to complicate the process.''

Both candidates would allow President George W. Bush's tax cuts to expire for workers in the top two tax brackets and set the estate-tax rate at 45 percent with a $7 million exemption. Obama wants tax rates on capital gains and dividends to rise from the current 15 percent rate to perhaps as high as 28 percent, the rate under former President Ronald Reagan.

...lots more worth reading...

[formercia]

39. Tax credits only work if you're making money

and those people are keeping a low profile these days.

[Hugin]

69. Well, at least they're talking about it...

and kudos to Bloomberg for picking it up.

Yeah, no matter what everyone says... Bloomberg is alright. I can usually watch/read it.

Only the other day I watched it for an hour while they were discussing the Democratic candidates... Never once
did they mention McCain or any of the RWNMs issues injected to disturb the Dem primaries. It was mostly a
discussion of the structural problems with the Dem Primary System and how each of the remaining candidates
are dealing with it. It was refreshing after what seems like a thousand years of the Drudge/Fox News/Rush
to Corporate Media Rovian echo chamber. It was sort of like how TeeVee used to be, but, not quite.

[DemReadingDU]

41. Rumblings in the Middle East about dollar pegs

3/12/08 from Mike Larson's blog

Most of the post-Fed moves (big rally in stocks, big surge in 2-year yields, etc.) have largely stuck, with a little bit of giveback. But the one glaring exception is the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) staged a rally after the Fed plan was announced ... but it has largely given up those gains today. In fact, the Dollar Index touched 72.47 today, its pre-Fed low yesterday. The euro currency also set a marginal new high.

What gives? Several forces, but a key source of weakness appears to be rumblings in the Middle East about dollar pegs. Many regional currencies, including the UAE dirham and the Qatari riyal, are pegged to the U.S. dollar at fixed exchange rates. The problem is, having a dollar peg in your country essentially links your monetary policy to the U.S.'s monetary policy. If the U.S. Fed cuts rates to stimulate the U.S. economy, your economy will be stimulated as well -- even if the LAST thing you need is an extra boost. And believe me, most economies in the Middle East don't need it -- after all, they're raking in billions and billions of dollars from oil sales.

The result of the Fed-provided stimulation ... on top of strong regional economic growth ... is a gigantic inflation problem in many Gulf countries. UAE inflation surged to a record high 9.8% last year, according to estimates, up from 9.3% a year earlier. The government is planning to cap certain food prices and considering building up a "strategic food reserve" in response. In Qatar, inflation is exploding higher at a 13.7% rate, prompting countermeasures such as rent caps.

A publication called Emirates Business 24/7 reported that six Gulf nations are going to meet in a few days to discuss regional dollar pegs. Qatar came out today to deny that it was a currency revaluation-focused meeting. But based on trading in the dollar today, the market looks a bit skeptical.

http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/03/dollar-rumblings-in-middle-east.html

[TalkingDog]

43. Have fun today all. I'm off for another marathon day.

Just a couple more weeks....... if I survive.

I'll check in later. Thanks for being here EVERYBODY! Ozy does an outstanding job, but you guys all help make it the luscious layer cake of markety-love goodness that've I've grown to crave every morning (and miss horribly on the weekends).

Take care all.

[Hugin]

81. Have a great day, TalkingDog.

I've been missing your lateral Market/Economic insights. Be sure to post any you find. :)

[DemReadingDU]

45. bonddad: A Closer Look at the Transports

3/12/08 from bonddad's blog

I haven't talked about Dow Theory in awhile. Dow theory is one of those really, common sense theories. It goes like this. If the economy is doing well, companies will have to ship more and more stuff from point A to point B. This will benefit the transport sector. The converse is also true. If the economy isn't doing well, companies will ship less and less stuff from point A to point B. This will hurt the transport sector, leading to lower earnings.

and several charts to view

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/03/closer-look-at-transports.html

[DemReadingDU]

49. Fed bailout makes matters worse

3/13/08 How a lender bailout hurts the economy
The Federal Reserve's efforts to ease the credit crunch risk stoking inflation - and letting reckless, well-paid execs off the hook.

The government is showing considerable ingenuity in devising new tactics to fight the credit crunch. But some observers fear that the innovations risk making matters worse - by fueling inflation and insulating executives who made reckless bets from the full wrath of the market.

The Federal Reserve set off a ferocious stock market rally Tuesday with its plan to lend banks as much as $200 billion over 28 days later this month. The plan sent shares of hard-hit lenders such as Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500) soaring, because the Fed will allow borrowers to use privately issued mortgage-backed securities as collateral. Investors have fled those securities because they see a rising risk that mortgage bonds will become impaired as housing prices slide and defaults tick higher.

Tuesday's plan, dubbed the Term Securities Lending Facility, wasn't the first Fed move aimed at loosening up the debt markets. Late last year the Fed rolled out a similar plan called the Term Auction Facility that briefly succeeded in bringing down the interest rates banks charge one another for overnight loans.

"Think of Ben Bernanke as action hero," Felix Salmon wrote this week at Portfolio.com. "Every time the credit markets seize up and threaten to bring down the U.S. financial system, he pulls out a new weapon."

Not everyone is a fan of Action Ben, however. David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), wrote Wednesday that this week's Fed action will do little to counter the impression that Bernanke & Co. is struggling with problems that the Fed ultimately has little control over.

"This latest experiment, as with the others undertaken thus far, does not address underlying credit problems, does not materially improve the solvency of the institutions exposed to assets under stress, does nothing to put a floor under home prices," Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients. "We see no reason based on this for anyone to change their economic or earnings outlook despite the stock market's initial reaction to this latest initiative."

Rosenberg, who has been predicting for some time that the economy will slip into recession this year, expects the Fed to cut its fed funds rate to as low as 1% later in 2008, down from 3% now and 5.25% back in August. Observers expect the rate cuts to continue next week, with a cut as deep as 75 basis points at the Fed's regularly scheduled meeting. But there's little optimism that the cuts will do anything to stimulate demand for houses, which remain pricey by historical measures, or even bring down mortgage rates, which have been rising since the Fed's slashed rate by more than a percentage point over eight days at the end of January.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/12/markets/fedfollies.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008031304

[Roland99]

52. 9:31am - And they're off (and falling all over each other...)

Dow 12,012.31 -97.93
Nasdaq 2,216.00 -27.87
S&P 500 1,294.58 -14.19
Oil $109.80 $-0.12
10 YR 3.41% -0.07
Gold $996.00 $15.50

[UpInArms]

53. 9:32 EST gravity destroys $200 Billion Taxpayer bailout of big banks and the lying CEOs

Dow 11,977.63 132.61 (1.10%)
Nasdaq 2,214.98 28.89 (1.29%)
S&P 500 1,294.59 14.18 (1.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.427% 0.056

NYSE Volume 52,575,691.406
Nasdaq Volume 39,968,199.219

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.2.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.1. Futures are off their worst levels, but continue to suggest a sharply lower start to trading. Overseas markets have seen selling pressure. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped a steep 4.8% and Japan's Nikkei shed 3.3%. The European markets are trading lower, with the FTSE down 1.8% and the CAC 40 down 2.4%.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -20.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.2. After regaining some ground, futures dip as three economic reports hit the wires. February retail sales fell 0.6%, which is less than the expected rise of 0.2%. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.2% (consensus +0.2%). There were 353,000 weekly unemployment claims (consensus 357,000), unchanged from the previous reading. Finally, import prices rose 0.2% month over month, which was less than the expected rise of 0.8%. Separately, gold futures surpasses the $1000 mark for the first time ever.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.5. Current indications suggest a significantly lower start for the stock market. Credit concerns are weighing on the market as a Carlyle Group fund admitted it is close to collapse, according to MarketWatch.com. This is also putting some pressure on the dollar, as the yen fell below the 100 mark for the first time since 1995. Meanwhile, crude is trading above $110 per barrel.

[Hugin]

56. ~09:36: EDT: Ouch, our great-grand children are going to feel that in the morning...

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 11982.67 -127.57 -1.05%
• NASDAQ 2216.17 -27.70 -1.23%
• S&P 500 1292.21 -16.56 -1.27%

[UpInArms]

55. Paulson afraid of torches and pitchforks:

04. Paulson: Surviving period of market turmoil is top priority
9:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

05. Paulson threatens stronger oversight of credit rating firms
9:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

06. Paulson calls for overhaul of mortgage derivative market
9:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

07. Paulson: Complexity of some financial products key problem
9:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

08. Paulson: Financial firms should revisit dividend policies
9:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

09. Paulson: 'No silver bullet' to end excesses on Wall Street
9:30 AM ET, Mar 13, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

[Hugin]

57. "'No silver bullet' to end excesses on Wall Street"

Ha! I could've told them that *before* they threw $200 Billion into the mulcher.

[UpInArms]

58. Paulson was one of those leaders in excess on Wall Street as the CEO

of Goldman Sachs.

:banghead:

[DemocratInSoCal]

110. Except SILVER!!

I could sure use a lot of Silver bullets right about now.

How high will it get between now and when King IDIOT leaves office in 10 months? I say it will be over 30 by then.

[AnneD]

149. While gold has gone up more...

silver HAS had the best % gain. It has gone up at a fairly stable clip. The only down side it it is too damn heavy.

Gold and silver only keep up with inflation, and the purpose of investing is to make a profit first. Gold and silver are a hedge. The only place folks can keep their money safe is in commodities. The speculation is in oil etc., but the real money is in the commodities. I think it is can goods time for the poor folks, gold and silver for those with some scratch and oil, farm, and other commodity stocks for the speculators.

I think the market still needs a shakedown. Most of the companies have proven themselves to be poorly managed and corrupt. They fleece you and not give you a fighting chance. Why would I, as a small investor put my money in that? It is not attractive. That's like showing me all these Mc Mansions and trying to force me into an ARM to get it. Sorry. I can find a better bargain. We do have some choices here. I just happen to choose to keep my wallet shut when it comes to those overbuilt houses and overblown stocks. I got taken in the DotCom ($15 haircut) and I will be twice as careful this time.

[Demeter]

121. A Solution for the Mortgage Crisis?

You could in principle solve the problem of overvalued house prices by printing so much money that you bring the price of everything else up to that of housing, generating the necessary adjustment in the relative price of housing without going through the painful cycle of bankruptcies and foreclosures. Whether that is an action you'd want to contemplate might depend on the magnitude of the price adjustment you think is necessary. If we are talking about just 1 or 2% more inflation, I personally would regard the inflation as worth it. But if house prices are today overvalued by 10-30%, for which our proposed remedy is to bring about a corresponding increase in the price of everything else of that magnitude, we would surely want to bear in mind the recent caution from Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin:

Empirical evidence has starkly demonstrated the adverse effects of high inflation.

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/NakedCapitalism/~3/249972480/hamilton-fed-cannot-solve-credit-crisis.html

[Hugin]

146. No, see -YOUR- post #117 as to why this won't work...

Geeze, now I'm refering people to their own posts. :eyes:

( :hi: )

[Demeter]

148. I Post Information, Not Conclusions

This was Wacky Idea #whatever....the Bernanke plan!

[Hugin]

150. Well, I conclude it would lead to very expensive hamburgers...

and my Boss isn't about to give me a 30% raise any time soon. To save me or the Economy.

But, it would resolve the excess population living on fixed incomes problem. <--- :sarcasm:

[Demeter]

151. Your Boss Gives Raises?

I quit working for the NYTimes as a carrier when they offered to cut my income by 40% while doubling the amount of work while gas prices were climbing. I'm saving a ton of money that way. Truly!

[Hugin]

155. They are cleverly timed to coincide with increases in health insurance and other premiums...

So, the net effect on me and my standard of living is nil.

I've been living on essentially the same fixed income for decades.

I guess the answer to your question is... No. :)

[hatrack]

73. But . . . but . . . but . . . I thought regulation was BAD?!?!?

Also, this isn't just closing the barn door after the horses bolt, it's closing it after they're already been converted to Alpo.

Unbelievable.

:eyes:

[formercia]

75. Price of Tar beyond the reach of the poor

Luckily, feathers are still a bargain.

[InkAddict]

105. Just think, tar was the chewing gum of the Great Depression.

Mom was born in '29. She relates how kids would pull out the tar between the sidewalk blocks and chew it all day.

[kineneb]

145. especially if you have chickens...

my pet just finished moulting...got almost enough for a pillow. Still need tar, though. Hmmm, wonder if the big box hardware stores will be having sales on it?

[UpInArms]

62. Carlyle woes, Paulson comments weigh on financials

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/carlyle-woes-paulson-comments-weigh/story.aspx?guid=%7B96F4B0B8%2D2D68%2D4206%2D992A%2DFD302DEDBC1B%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. financial stocks were pressured Thursday as the credit crisis again was front and center, with Carlyle Capital Corp. near collapse after failing to meet margin calls. Comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, urging banks to consider cutting dividends, also weighed on the sector. The Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index (XBD: 163.65, -6.02, -3.5%) shed 2.2% in early trade, while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF: 24.76, -0.42, -1.7%) ,a fund that tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500, fell 4.3%. Carlyle Capital, the bond fund affiliated with private equity firm The Carlyle Group, is on the verge of collapse after failing to agree a new financing deal with lenders. In the other main news in the market Thursday, Treasury Secretary Paulson urged banks to reevaluate their dividend policies as a means to preserve capital, so they can "continue to lend and facilitate economic growth."

[formercia]

66. Flight to Precious metals and commodities.

"Treasury Secretary Paulson urged banks to reevaluate their dividend policies as a means to preserve capital, so they can "continue to lend and facilitate economic growth."

As the wealthy shareholders start packing their bags....

[magellan]

70. Hedge funds on the brink as US Federal Reserve cash fails to ease crisis - The Times UK

== Dweller asked me last night to post this in today's SMW thread ==

Several hedge funds with assets of more than $4 billion (£2 billion) were on the brink of collapse last night or had halted withdrawals, despite moves by the US Federal Reserve this week to ease America’s deteriorating credit crisis with a $200 billion collateral lending facility.

The potential closure of six funds came as a leading private equity executive, who declined to be named, said that such funds were “snapping like twigs”, with one failing every day.

Yesterday Patti Cook, Freddie Mac’s chief business officer, predicted that the Federal Reserve’s $200 billion bond lending facility this week would fail to solve the long-term problem of Wall Street’s deepening credit crisis.

The funds’ predicament – seven funds have been frozen this month – was seen as evidence that the initiative by America’s central bank to allow lenders to swap their risky mortgage-backed bonds for safer Treasury debt, will be of help only in the short term. Those fears hit the dollar and New York equity markets, with the greenback falling to a new low against the euro and sterling, as the European currency hit $1.55 for the first time.

Read more: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3542723.ece

[UpInArms]

78. thanks for the post, magellan!

and come here with anything you find and your opinions any time!

those hedge funds are just another vehicle to scam folks out of their money - anytime Greenscum recommended something, I knew it was a con-job.

He was such a poser.

[magellan]

102. Thanks, UIA

Yep, posing as "Dumb & Dumber" has served these con artists well. I'm just amazed that more people haven't woken up to the scam they're running yet. How many years does it take to realize "I'm with stupid" isn't an effective management style, economic or otherwise?

:hi:

[UpInArms]

80. 10:00 EST and it's very bad Indy, it's very bad indeed

Dow 11,907.70 202.54 (1.67%)
Nasdaq 2,209.15 34.72 (1.55%)
S&P 500 1,285.25 23.52 (1.80%)
10-Yr Bond 3.41% 0.073

NYSE Volume 531,597,812.5
Nasdaq Volume 227,758,875

09:45 am : The major indices open sharply lower. Credit concerns continue to weigh on the market due to reports that a Carlyle Group fund admitted it is close to collapse. Also, February retail sales were weaker than expected.

Financials are posting a steep 3.0% decline. On top of the Carlyle reports, Treasury Secretary Paulson said financial institutions must raise capital and revisit dividend policies.

The dollar continues to weaken, as it falls to all-time lows. The dollar has lost 1.6% against the yen, which briefly dipped below the 100 yen mark for the first time since 1995.DJ30 -161.27 NASDAQ -27.88 SP500 -18.79

[Roland99]

114. Losses cut in half now at 11:30 or so. WHEEEE!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

119. Thwop thwop thwop...

[Demeter]

128. Cool Helicopter! You Must Teach Me How To Do That!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

130. OK

Change <> to brackets:

<Marquee direction= left/right/up/down> Insert image </marquee>

[Demeter]

136. It Worked! I Put it In the Lounge!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

139. Not the Lounge! It's too powerful for the Lounge!

Lol.

[Demeter]

140. Ooops!

(Sorry)

[Demeter]

83. Policy makers to propose mortgage rules revamp: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080313/bs_nm/paulson_housing_dc_2

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. policy makers, led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, will recommend a revamp of rules on credit markets and mortgage brokers, to help avoid a repeat of the recent credit crunch, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.



Paulson said in an interview that the President's Working Group of Financial Markets would recommend strengthening state and federal oversight of mortgage lenders and brokers. The plan comes as the government and the Federal Reserve seek to fix a debilitated U.S. mortgage bond and housing markets.
Paulson is due to deliver a speech on financial markets on Thursday at the National Press Club at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).

The Working Group will recommend "strong nationwide licensing standards" for mortgage brokers, and call on credit-rating firms and regulators to differentiate between ratings on complex structured products and conventional bonds, the report said.

The group will recommend that issuers of mortgage-backed securities disclose more about "the level and scope of due diligence" and about the underlying assets of the securities.

Global banking regulators will also be urged to revisit the latest version of bank capital requirements, known as Basel II, to ensure banks have sufficient capital, it said.

"We are going to be mindful when we implement it to not create a burden," Paulson was quoted as saying. "But we think it's very appropriate to lay out some of the causes and some of the steps that need to be taken...to minimize the likelihood of this happening again."

The report said various government bodies had worked on the recommendations for over seven months and that Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had "huddled" for half a day early this month to review the details.

(Reporting by Ritsuko Ando, editing by Jacqueline Wong)


SORRY FOLKS, BUT THERE'S NO HORSE IN THAT PILE OF MANURE!

AS IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANOTHER CHANCE TO CREATE SUCH A DISASTER AGAIN!

[UpInArms]

89. Gold futures soar above $1,000 an ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-soar-above-1000/story.aspx?guid=%7BE0AA807A%2D0E16%2D46B1%2D8018%2D76FF4D52CC83%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures briefly broke the psychologically important level of $1,000 an ounce Thursday, propelled by ongoing dollar weakness and bleak news from the financial sector.

Gold soared as high as $1,001 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold for April delivery was last up $17.50 at $998 an ounce.

"Gold prices looked set to finally achieve the $1,000 mark this morning, as background market conditions shifted from bad to worse overnight," said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a research note.

"This will likely become known as the Carlyle/Drake Rally," Nadler said. "The imminent doom of the bond fund and probable demise of the hedge fund sent icy shivers through the financial markets that way overshadowed the (brief) cheer we witnessed following the Fed's term facility plan the other day."

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks dropped sharply after a fund managed by the Carlyle Group (CARYF) admitted it's close to collapse and as statistics showed a decline in retail sales, dragging the dollar to a 12-year low against the Japanese yen. See Market Snapshot.

Carlyle Capital, the bond fund affiliated with private equity firm The Carlyle Group, is on the verge of collapse after failing to agree a new financing deal with lenders. The fund said late Wednesday that it expects lenders will soon take possession of "substantially all" its remaining assets after it was unable to meet surging margin calls on its portfolio of residential-mortgage-backed securities. Read more.

<snip>

"This is just the start of things, and if the government continues to give away money and torpedo the dollar, gold will do nothing but move higher."
— Zachary Oxman, Wisdom Financial

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

96. The Fed's worst nightmare

3/13/08 Ugly retail sales and a somber forecast from CFOs point to recession, but rising oil and gold prices and a weak dollar show inflation. What's Ben Bernanke to do?

It's days like today that will make many investors wish they stayed in bed.

And they're not the only ones. Something tells me that Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee would like to run and hide as well.

Where to begin? Retail sales for February were shockingly weak, with sales falling during 0.6% during the month compared to economists' forecasts of a 0.2% gain. Those numbers put dents in the argument that consumers would keep spending in the face of the housing downturn.

Wall Street is also digesting some sobering results from a survey of chief financial officers released by Duke University and CFO magazine late Wednesday.

According to the survey of more than 1,000 CFOs, conducted last week, three-quarters of the respondents said the economy is either in a recession already or will hit one this year, and nearly 90% of CFOs surveyed said they didn't think the economy would rebound until late 2009.

So this means the Fed should slash interest rates at its next meeting on March 18, right? After all, according to federal funds futures, investors are pricing in a 72% chance of a three-quarters of a percentage point cut.

But not so fast.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/markets/morningbuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008031310

[Demeter]

108. If The PTB All Took A Nice Month-Long Easter Vacation

the world would be much better for it.

[MilesColtrane]

118. CPI figures for Feb. are out tomorrow.

Expected to be up .3%.

If I were a betting man, I'd take the over on that one.

In fact, I'm thinking about mailing this to Chopper Ben. Perhaps it may make him think twice about further cuts.

[Demeter]

111. Who Will Win the War of The Worlds? / DailyReckoning.com

Maybe we’re wrong. If yesterday illustrated the essence of this market, we are definitely wrong.

Our hypothesis is that the fed’s efforts to inflate will show up more in the gold market than in the stock market. That – and an instinct for self-preservation – is why we’re long gold and short stocks. Stock prices depend, ultimately, on earnings. Gold’s price depends, ultimately, on inflation. The feds can make more cash and credit available...but they can’t wipe away all those bad debts, which are hurting earnings. That is, they can increase the rate of inflation...but not make businesses more prosperous.

We’re witnessing a War of the Worlds – between inflation and deflation. We don’t know which side will win, but we’re betting that while inflation favors gold, deflation has it in for stocks.
But what’s this? Yesterday, the Fed promised inflation – big time. It said it would pump in an extra $200 billion to fight deflation. Europe and Canada said they were in too – for another $45 billion.
Where does all this moolah come from...savings? Don’t make us laugh, dear reader. It comes “out of thin air” as Keynes once said.

And what is the effect of pulling money ‘out of thin air’ and putting it in the money supply? More dollars...more monetary inflation. According to our hypothesis, investors should see what’s coming a mile away. They should have jumped to buy gold. Instead, they bought stocks. The Dow roared up more than 400 points. Gold barely went up $4. So go figure. Still, oil hit a new high over $108. And sometimes it takes investors a little while to put 2 and 2 together. So, let’s see what happens tomorrow before we come to a conclusion.

Besides, stocks may have gone up yesterday anyway; a rally was probably overdue. Commodities are at an all time high. Oil too. And more and more evidence comes to us that consumers are feeling squeezed...and forced to cut back on spending – which will further hurt business earnings.

“Surging cost of groceries hits home,” says the Boston Globe .

“Paying at the pump, in a big way,” says the New York Times . “Record fuel prices blow budgets,” adds the USA TODAY.

“401(k)s tapped to save homes,” it continues.

While rising prices pinch family budgets, falling asset prices pinch everyone. Most of the economy seems to be deflating. Housing is going down. Household incomes are going down. We’ll have to wait a few days to find out what direction stocks are going.

The big picture still shows the same scene: America is getting poorer. Its money buys less stuff. Its working people earn less money. Its assets are worth less than they used to be.

“This thing is not about a recession or not a recession...and it’s not about inflation or deflation. It’s about re-pricing the U.S.A., downward. Sell America...sell its money...sell its stocks...sell its property...sell its politics...sell its economy...sell its I.O.Us. Sell it all,” said a friend over the weekend. “It’s clear to me that America’s best days are behind it. The United States has had a disproportionate share of everything for too long – stock market valuations...the world’s savings...the world’s energy...the world’s calories...the world’s military power. That’s what is changing. The world is readjusting...it’s not getting out of balance; it’s getting back in balance. It will be a world where the United States plays less of a role...and takes less of the world’s resources.”

[DemocratInSoCal]

112. What The Fuck Will It Take To Make Them Stop LYING!!!!!??????

S&P says that the end of writedowns is in sight. We may have passed the halfway mark.

WHY THE FUCK ARE THESE GUYS GIVEN A FORUM??

My apologies to those out there who will be impacted, but I sincerely think it's going to take a complete, unequivical, unquestionable, DEPRESSION in this country, before PEOPLE WAKE THE FUCK UP AND START BEING HONEST!!

Even then, I'm not sure we can get away from all the frickin' Cheerleading.

It pisses the shit out of me, that these G-d Damned HYPOCRITES are given a forum, and have the prestige that they do, while I continue my job as a CPA, and live in my little condo.

There is more intelligence in this little SMW forum, than in all the "Market Mavens" these financial networks give a platform to, so they can spew their description of FANTASYLAND!

[Demeter]

115. Their Benchmarks Are Not Yours or Mine

They look at columns of abstract data--we look at people.

And their time frames are 3 months. Ours are generations.

They look at profit and loss--we look at virtues and sins, good and evil.

There's no communicating with them. They are the zombies.

[MilesColtrane]

120. Nice! Another Haiku...

we look at people
they look at abstract data
they are the zombies

[Demeter]

126. And You Are a Genius--A Green Poet, Recycling Dross Into Art

I am flattered that you saw something there.

[magellan]

144. I heard that too, and could only shake my head

I've screamed so much over the last few years at the con-artistry that passes for professional judgement in this country I have no outrage left.

It will take people with power and good conscience to prosecute the criminals who are raping this country, regulate the media's corporate masters, and turn the economy around.

By my math, that leaves us DOOMED.

[ozymandius]

175. You just forcefully articulated the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

CNBC: They employ more clowns than Barnum and Bailey.

The market mavens you mention offer favorable comments for companies in which they have investment stakes. Lou Dobbs has gotten in trouble repeatedly over this. Stewart Varney lost one of his jobs over the same.

The point is: tee-vee personalities appeal to the lowest common denominator.

[DemocratInSoCal]

178. Yet People Believe Them

Is there any way to get the lemmings and sheep in this country....and I know there are lots and lots of them, to just follow these pied pipers off the cliff, so the rest of us can handle things in the future?

Nobody ever listens to us. I really don't care anymore, but feel a certain sense of comraderie coming to places like this, where I can associate with others who feel as I do.

It's just so frustrating, and I am beginning to not only expect, but hope for a total collapse of this country, because PEOPLE WON'T WAKE THE HELL UP!

[ozymandius]

184. I truly, honestly appreciate your passionate intensity.

Your opinion taps into the current moving through our little Stock Market Watch. The unfortunate downside for being, as some people describe us here, "ahead of the curve" is utter frustration. There's just no helping some people. In fact - it's more than some. It's a lot of people.

We work. Day after day to the breach. It's just how things get done while we hope for the best.

[DemocratInSoCal]

194. The Forces Against Us Are So Overwhelming

We can't compete with the Brain Dead "Maven" IDIOTS on CNBC.

We can't compete with Helicopter Ben and his printing press.

We can't compete with King Idiot, who gets up and speaks, and people accept what he says as truth.

We can't compete with the almighty Henry Paulsen, when he gives a speech and says everything is fine.

We can't compete with the Corporations, and the manipulation which occurs on a daily basis in the stock market.

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE this place, because even though I'm learning from the choir, while preaching to the choir, I feel as if I'm able to get a better handle on my own situation, and the possibilities of the events which may shape my financial well being in the future.

But in terms of enlightening anybody else, I feel it's a lost cause.

Today, our secretary, made the following statement...."I Like *" She makes roughly $25K/year. Works part-time. Rents an apartment. Likely has no savings to her name. Loans money to her daughter(who is a financial mess) like water. I'm convinced now that she's an IDIOT, and I have no sympathy whatsoever for her, if her situation deteriorates, and it will, as a result of where this economy and the dollar is headed.

She probably has no concept of what a precious metal is, and I'm sure she doesn't even blame the guy she likes, for the increase in oil. MORON.

[Demeter]

113. Somebody Wants Bernanke's Job! DailyReckoning.com

Bryon King sends us this note:

“While Ms. H. Rodham-Clinton and Mr. B. (No Middle Name) Obama battle out over who will be the Democratic Party nominee for U.S. president, there is another Great Smackdown occurring within American politics.

“This other match – a true eye-gouging, ear-biting cage-match by any standards – may well determine the success or failure of the next U.S. president, no matter who is elected next November. (Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain has admitted one of his own limitations, ‘I don’t know as much about economics as I should.’ He gets points for honesty, if not candor.) And this other knock-down, drag-out competition is taking place within the marbled hallways of a certain institution located prominently on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC, just across from the Lincoln Memorial.

“It appears that a certain Mr. Richard Fisher, of Dallas, Texas (and by occupation, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Branch) is lobbying for the job of ‘Successor to Ben Bernanke.’ That is, Mr. Fisher wants to be the next Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

“The current course of U.S. monetary policy is not sustainable. The Bernanke monetary policy is wrecking the value of the U.S. dollar. The charts don’t lie. Inflation is rising. The prices for gold and silver are soaring, as is the price of oil. The dollar is at historic lows against the euro, as well as numerous other world currencies. U.S. import costs are exploding. And despite his academic credentials as a historian of the 1929 crash and Great Depression of the 1930s, Bernanke is simply in over his head.

“We may be witnessing some macabre and tragic drama scripted by the gods. And in this play, it may be the unpleasant role of Mr. Bernanke to lower interest rates to the point where he must take the sword. Bernanke may or may not understand that he is the star of the R-rated version of a snuff film. Bernanke’s sad destiny is – paraphrasing the words of Gen. George Patton here – to grease the treads of someone’s tank. The best that Bernanke can hope for is a relatively dignified and hasty departure from the Fed, with perhaps a final limo ride in which he is not garroted like in the chilling scene that occurs at the end of The Godfather .

“No matter what, and in the best of possible outcomes, Mr. Bernanke will not escape the Circus-Circus atmosphere of a summary dismissal from his current job. His trip to the unemployment lines will be heralded by calls from Congress for his removal, if not his head.

“This is all another way of saying that over the long term the world’s bond markets cannot afford – and will not tolerate – the current sordid state of monetary affairs. Bernanke is costing a lot of people a lot of money. He is bad for business. And so Bernanke as Fed Chairman cannot last much longer. He is going to go, sooner or later. Probably sooner.

“It is the nature of the position of ‘America’s Central Banker’ that someone will have to take Bernanke’s place. At 81 years of age, Paul Volker is probably too old to retake the job he held from 1979 to 1987. And Volker may not be ready for a replay of his previous efforts, marked by angry mobs burning his figure in effigy. (And second acts do not play well in Washington D.C. Look what happened to Donald Rumsfeld during his rerun at the Department of Defense.) So someone will have to step up to the plate, take the seat as Fed Chairman and start pulling triggers. Someone will have to call a halt to the serial interest rate reductions that have occurred on Bernanke’s watch. Someone, in fact, will have to raise interest rates and squeeze the monetary poison out of the U.S. economy – and by extension the connected world markets.

“Someone will have to administer the medicine that both the United States and the world requires. Someone will have to do the dirty work. Someone will have to take the hit – ‘for the team,’ as they say down at the football pitch. Richard Fisher appears to be volunteering for the job. Good luck, Mr. Banker-Man. You are going to need it. Really. You are going to need a lot of luck.”


NOT SURE I COULD STOMACH THE THOUGHT OF A TEXAN IN ANY POSITION OF POWER, MYSELF. NOT SURE ANYBODY COULD WANT THE FED HEAD AFTER BERNANKE DID THE NASTY, EITHER.

[CountAllVotes]

122. as I posted yesterday ...

Bernake needs to resign or be fired NOW! This idiot doesn't know :wtf: he is doing!!!

:dem: :kick:

[MilesColtrane]

127. Dick Fisher?

So Larry Craig wants to be the next Fed Head?

[ozymandius]

170. As I quipped yesterday - his name is Greenscanke.

He has just extended the Greenspan reign over the Fed. Idiots all - he has just been handed the keys to the shop that has been churning out turds for eighteen years. Only now - people are starting to catch on.

Greenspan was a poet. And a useful idiot. Our new Fed chief is just an idiot minus the verbal sagacity that Greenspan employed.

I'm sure Greenscanke reads the press references about "The Maestro" and thinks it's all about him.

[Demeter]

116. “It’s the credit bubble, stupid!” DailyReckoning.com

“It’s the credit bubble, stupid,” says Forbes .

Yes, that is what it is...a credit bubble that is deflating. The tide is going out, as Warren Buffett puts it. Now we see who’s been swimming naked. Not a pretty sight. So ugly, in fact, that people can’t stand to look.

“Fed takes boldest action since the Depression,” says an article in the London Telegraph .

Yes, dear reader, our leaders are doing something. Now, we just wait to find out how much damage they have done.

The hardest thing to do is nothing.

But in matters of politics and money that is usually the best thing to do.

As we’ve pointed out many times, nothing gets no respect. “Do something,” come the cries from all corners. Even those who should know better implore public officials to take action:

“When a man is having a heart attack, you have to intervene...you can give lectures about his diet later,” they say.

But the U.S. economy is not dying. It is merely adjusting to a new set of circumstances. The consumer is tapped out. Without more income he cannot increase his buying. And without more spending, the consumer economy stalls...and contracts. No, don’t even think of lending the consumer more money – he has too much debt already.

This is an election year and the politicians want to dodge a contraction in the worst possible way. What would be the worst possible way? Easy – add more debt. That is precisely what the Bernanke Fed is doing. Yesterday, they offered another $200 billion to their friends in the banking industry – lent against the trashy collateral that no one else would accept. Now, the Peoples’ Bank of America – ultimately, the taxpayer – will be holding the bag.

[Karenina]

160. 6% consuming 25%, Those were the days my friend.

And those days are OVER. Shall we call it a "correction?"

[Demeter]

117. Did Increased Income Disparity Help Cause the Depression?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/did-increased-income-disparity-help.html

Increased income disparity is bad for economic growth, because in the end you wind up with insufficient labor income to fund consumption (note that America's high consumption rate has been achieved by lowering its already low savings rate to zero) and too much capital chasing too few investment opportunities (even a sound bet will produce a bad return if you pay too much for it).

(This has been known for) 50 years, as Robert Reich tells us in his latest post, invoking former Fed chairman Marriner Eccles . Insufficient consumption is one theory of the roots of the Depression (the monetarist version has gained ascendance), but Eccles links the consumption shortfall directly to a shift in wealth towards the top. And some of the other patterns of the Twenties, such as debt-fueled growth, are worryingly familiar.



From Reich's "Are We Headed for Another Great Depression?":


Probably not. But go back 75 years and you'll find eerie similarities. Marriner S. Eccles who served as Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Chairman of the Federal Reserve from November, 1934 to February, 1948 gave his view of what caused the Depression in his memoirs, "Beckoning Frontiers" (New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1951):

As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation s economic machinery. Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

That is what happened to us in the twenties. We sustained high levels of employment in that period with the aid of an exceptional expansion of debt outside of the banking system. This debt was provided by the large growth of business savings as well as savings by individuals, particularly in the upper-income groups where taxes were relatively low. Private debt outside of the banking system increased about fifty per cent. This debt, which was at high interest rates, largely took the form of mortgage debt on housing, office, and hotel structures, consumer installment debt, brokers' loans, and foreign debt. The stimulation to spending by debt-creation of this sort was short-lived and could not be counted on to sustain high levels of employment for long periods of time. Had there been a better distribution of the current income from the national product -- in other words, had there been less savings by business and the higher-income groups and more income in the lower groups -- we should have had far greater stability in our economy. Had the six billion dollars, for instance, that were loaned by corporations and wealthy individuals for stock-market speculation been distributed to the public as lower prices or higher wages and with less profits to the corporations and the well-to-do, it would have prevented or greatly moderated the economic collapse that began at the end of 1929.

The time came when there were no more poker chips to be loaned on credit. Debtors thereupon were forced to curtail their consumption in an effort to create a margin that could be applied to the reduction of outstanding debts. This naturally reduced the demand for goods of all kinds and brought on what seemed to be overproduction, but was in reality underconsumption when judged in terms of the real world instead of the money world. This, in turn, brought about a fall in prices and employment.

Unemployment further decreased the consumption of goods, which further increased unemployment, thus closing the circle in a continuing decline of prices. Earnings began to disappear, requiring economies of all kinds in the wages, salaries, and time of those employed. And thus again the vicious circle of deflation was closed until one third of the entire working population was unemployed, with our national income reduced by fifty per cent, and with the aggregate debt burden greater than ever before, not in dollars, but measured by current values and income that represented the ability to pay. Fixed charges, such as taxes, railroad and other utility rates, insurance and interest charges, clung close to the 1929 level and required such a portion of the national income to meet them that the amount left for consumption of goods was not sufficient to support the population.

[MilesColtrane]

129. That's spooky.

[antigop]

133. Yep. And what about those who don't learn from history and are doomed to repeat it? n/t

[kineneb]

152. loss of generational memory

Having lost touch with the older generations in our families, we no longer heard the stories about The Bad Old Days. If younger generations had heard the stories, they might have been less likely to repeat the same errors. I was fortunate enough (in many ways) to be raised by my grandparents, who were their 20s during the Depression.

When explaining the Depression to me as a child, Grandma said the whole thing was driven by people borrowing money to play the stock market (Eccles' poker game). My G.parents had tried to start a gas station business, but lost it; they spent at least a year living in a tent house on my great-grandparents' farm. And they considered themselves to be lucky; they had a place to live and food. Others did not.

For what it was really like, I suggest finding the photos taken by the WPA/CCC, and Dorothea Lang.

This family was not as lucky as mine:

[antigop]

156. FYI: Old Krugman article on "The Great Wealth Transfer"

Thought this might be worth a re-visit:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/12699486/paul_krugman_on_the_great_wealth_transfer

The reason most Americans think the economy is fair to poor is simple: For most Americans, it really is fair to poor. Wages have failed to keep up with rising prices. Even in 2005, a year in which the economy grew quite fast, the income of most non-elderly families lagged behind inflation. The number of Americans in poverty has risen even in the face of an official economic recovery, as has the number of Americans without health insurance. Most Americans are little, if any, better off than they were last year and definitely worse off than they were in 2000.

But how is this possible? The economic pie is getting bigger -- how can it be true that most Americans are getting smaller slices? The answer, of course, is that a few people are getting much, much bigger slices. Although wages have stagnated since Bush took office, corporate profits have doubled. The gap between the nation's CEOs and average workers is now ten times greater than it was a generation ago. And while Bush's tax cuts shaved only a few hundred dollars off the tax bills of most Americans, they saved the richest one percent more than $44,000 on average. In fact, once all of Bush's tax cuts take effect, it is estimated that those with incomes of more than $200,000 a year -- the richest five percent of the population -- will pocket almost half of the money. Those who make less than $75,000 a year -- eighty percent of America -- will receive barely a quarter of the cuts. In the Bush era, economic inequality is on the rise.

Rising inequality isn't new. The gap between rich and poor started growing before Ronald Reagan took office, and it continued to widen through the Clinton years. But what is happening under Bush is something entirely unprecedented: For the first time in our history, so much growth is being siphoned off to a small, wealthy minority that most Americans are failing to gain ground even during a time of economic growth -- and they know it.

A merica has never been an egalitarian society, but during the New Deal and the Second World War, government policies and organized labor combined to create a broad and solid middle class. The economic historians Claudia Goldin and Robert Margo call what happened between 1933 and 1945 the Great Compression: The rich got dramatically poorer while workers got considerably richer. Americans found themselves sharing broadly similar lifestyles in a way not seen since before the Civil War.

But in the 1970s, inequality began increasing again -- slowly at first, then more and more rapidly. You can see how much things have changed by comparing the state of affairs at America's largest employer, then and now. In 1969, General Motors was the country's largest corporation aside from AT&T, which enjoyed a government-guaranteed monopoly on phone service. GM paid its chief executive, James M. Roche, a salary of $795,000 -- the equivalent of $4.2 million today, adjusting for inflation. At the time, that was considered very high. But nobody denied that ordinary GM workers were paid pretty well. The average paycheck for production workers in the auto industry was almost $8,000 -- more than $45,000 today. GM workers, who also received excellent health and retirement benefits, were considered solidly in the middle class.

[antigop]

158. "For Richer"

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9505EFD9113AF933A15753C1A9649C8B63

We are now living in a new Gilded Age, as extravagant as the original. Mansions have made a comeback. Back in 1999 this magazine profiled Thierry Despont, the ''eminence of excess,'' an architect who specializes in designing houses for the superrich. His creations typically range from 20,000 to 60,000 square feet; houses at the upper end of his range are not much smaller than the White House. Needless to say, the armies of servants are back, too. So are the yachts. Still, even J.P. Morgan didn't have a Gulfstream.

As the story about Despont suggests, it's not fair to say that the fact of widening inequality in America has gone unreported. Yet glimpses of the lifestyles of the rich and tasteless don't necessarily add up in people's minds to a clear picture of the tectonic shifts that have taken place in the distribution of income and wealth in this country. My sense is that few people are aware of just how much the gap between the very rich and the rest has widened over a relatively short period of time. In fact, even bringing up the subject exposes you to charges of ''class warfare,'' the ''politics of envy'' and so on. And very few people indeed are willing to talk about the profound effects -- economic, social and political -- of that widening gap.

Yet you can't understand what's happening in America today without understanding the extent, causes and consequences of the vast increase in inequality that has taken place over the last three decades, and in particular the astonishing concentration of income and wealth in just a few hands. To make sense of the current wave of corporate scandal, you need to understand how the man in the gray flannel suit has been replaced by the imperial C.E.O. The concentration of income at the top is a key reason that the United States, for all its economic achievements, has more poverty and lower life expectancy than any other major advanced nation. Above all, the growing concentration of wealth has reshaped our political system: it is at the root both of a general shift to the right and of an extreme polarization of our politics.

[lovuian]

190. economics 101 You can't have 90% of a countrys assets owned

America's wealthy owned 90% of American assets

that causes Depressions

and yet I saw Princeton Yale Harvard UT Columbia economists all mums on that point
during outsourcing our manufacturing jobs to China

this is the Day of Reckoning

and this is the end of Iraq War

[Demeter]

125. Fed to the Rescue of Fannie and Freddie

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/fed-to-rescue-fannie-and-freddie.html

The Fed's move today to lend up to $200 billion against mortgage backed securities comes as close as one can without an act of Congress to affirming the implicit Federal guarantee of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debt. Its new facility, the Term Securities Lending Facility, will lend to primary dealers through 28 day auctions, exchanging Treasuries for mortgage-backed debt.

Note that this program also includes AAA rated non-agency debt. We noted last night that S&P and Moody's are maintaining AAA ratings on subprime debt that is most decidedly not AAA according to their own standards. Before, we thought that concerns that the Fed was taking on toxic collateral were overblown. Given this new facility, and the failure of the rating agencies to give accurate grades, we will see the Fed lending against some less that terrific assets under this program (though the amounts may in the end prove to be minor).

This move also lowered somewhat expectations for Fed fund rate cut of 100 basis points to 2 percent, and raised odds of a 75 basis point cut to 60%.

As Steve Waldman tells us, this program will leave the Fed with $300 to $400 billion for further sterilizing interventions. The new moves, between the measures announced last Friday, and the ones today, have the Fed taking on an additional $340 billion in assets (a $40 billion increase in the TAF, the $100 billion new repo facility announced Friday, and the $200 Treasury/MBS lending program today). The Fed has only one more move like this in its arsenal. Paul Krugman pointed out that the Fed's last two attempts to calm the credit markets (admittedly neither of them of this scale) did not provide lasting relief.

The Fed may finally be getting the commodities markets message on trashing the dollar. However, we are skeptical that this measure will have sufficient impact in the long run. Subprime mortgage resets peak in August, which leads to an increase in defaults, but foreclosures average 15 months after default. We haven't even seen the worst of the housing crisis, yet the Fed has already used a great deal of its firepower.

[Robbien]

131. Hot off the WSJ Blog: The Subprime Crisis Is Over (We Think)

When discussing the credit and housing crisis, the frequent refrain among traders and investors has been some variation of “we don’t know when this is going to end.” This sentiment was expressed to MarketBeat by one trader this morning prior to the market’s open, in fact.

Well, Standard & Poor’s is giving it the old college try on just when this will end. The credit-ratings agency has a report out saying that subprime write-downs will total about $285 billion when all is said and done, putting the market “past the halfway mark,” as they title their report. The report, along with just-released legislative proposal from Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) on stemming the problems in the mortgage industry, is seen as helping equities, which are significantly off the day’s lows.
A market bounce.
“The positive news is that, in our opinion, the global financial sector appears to have already disclosed the majority of valuation write-downs of subprime ABS,” said Standard & Poor’s analyst Scott Bugie, who wrote the report. Now, that may well be a guess, but doing the math, if, after all, subprime writedowns, which currently net out to about $150 billion to $160 billion or so, that would indeed surpass the half-way mark.

But the problem remains, of course, just how long the banks experience a contraction in their capital base, their willingness to lend and fund new projects, and the availability of credit to borrowers. So yes, the worst of the write-downs may be in the rear-view mirror (although the first quarter earnings period will truly be the determinant of this), but that doesn’t make the outlook sunnier just yet.

Mr. Frank is clearly hoping to jump in at the right moment with aggressive legislation that includes, among other things, a program to allow the Federal Housing Authority to provide up to $300 billion in new guarantees to help refinance borrowers, and loans and grants to buy and rehabilitate foreclosed homes.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/03/13/the-subprime-crisis-is-over-we-think/?mod=googlenews_wsj

Crisis over, everyone can go home.

Mmmkay.

[librechik]

135. Thanks for the laugh!

really didn't think I was going to get one today...

[Demeter]

147. I Wish the Stock Market Graphs Showed Sales Volumes, too

It's hard to tell how hard they're cranking without it.

[Robbien]

161. There is a chart over at Yahoo

which gives volume by individual stock which I glance over from time to time

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EDJI

But yeah you are right, it would be nice to see market volume comparison info charted out.

[Danascot]

171. Does this do what you're looking for?

BigCharts gives a daily volume chart along with the price chart for the DJIA or almost anything else with a symbol.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com

This should be the DJIA price chart with the volume chart below it for a month (volume isn't available for less than a month):

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=1&time=4

LOTS of additional quite sophisticated charts, ratios and indicators are available with the advanced and interactive chart features ... at no cost.

[Robbien]

154. SEC Abandons Hedge-Fund Probe Tactic After Complaints

<snip>

The SEC stepped up efforts to police illegal trading last year after stock and options trading volumes surged before takeovers of companies including TXU Corp. and First Data Corp. The agency has focused on how market-moving information spreads among hedge funds, investment banks and leveraged buyout firms.

More recently, the SEC has looked into whether insiders used non-public information to dump mortgage securities as part of its probe of the subprime market collapse, Cox said Feb. 8.

. . .

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission abandoned a tactic for ferreting out potential insider trading at hedge funds, after the nation's biggest business lobby called the method ``unduly burdensome.''

. . .

The SEC acted after the Washington-based Chamber of Commerce, which lobbies for more than 3 million businesses, wrote to the agency and met with SEC staff to complain.

SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, a Republican, responded in a Jan. 23 letter, saying the form was no longer in use. ``The concerns you raised are legitimate,'' he wrote.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEHnDyK9iIMA&refer=home

The SEC just got its butt whipped by its big boss, the Chamber of Commerce.

[Hugin]

157. Didn't I read the other day...

The last Dem SEC Commissioner resigned recently and they are now all Republicans? Isn't this DC based CoC the same
one which declared the War on the Middle Class via funding smear campaigns on candidates who were deemed to be
"Populists"?

Could it be?

Naw, no way. Playing field is LEVEL! Markets are FREE! :eyes:

[antigop]

165. and after you lose your job and your 401(k), ya just gotta pull yourself up by your boostraps

Go back to school and get a REAL job, you lazy ---. And if you don't have health insurance, IT'S YOUR PROBLEM.

Never mind that the "system" wreaks havoc on people's lives. Hey, we're all rugged individualists. We can take care of ourselves. Smaller government, less regulation -- Yeah, that's our motto. Safety nets? Who needs stinkin' safety nets? *I* can take care of myself.

:sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

159. 2:09 EST partying like it's 1929!

Dow 12,198.09 87.85 (0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,268.01 24.14 (1.08%)
S&P 500 1,321.29 12.52 (0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 3.549% 0.066

NYSE Volume 3,410,954,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,584,607,125

2:00 pm : The major indices stall for a bit and then extend their gains. There does not appear to be one specific catalyst for the recent surge, although the thrifts & mortgages group (+6.5%) saw a huge lift after being down as much as 5.6%. Representative Barney Frank wants the government to pledge up to $300 billion in loan guarantees to help stem foreclosures, according to MarketWatch.com.

The Nasdaq is outperforming the S&P 500, partly due to strength in Research In Motion (RIMM 104.17, +2.78), which is not included in the S&P because it is a Canadian company.DJ30 +73.76 NASDAQ +23.02 SP500 +9.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1195/1656/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1388/1721/1.12 bln

1:30 pm : The major indices rebound into the green as they trade at their best levels of the session. The advance has been broad-based with eight of the ten sectors now posting a gain.

Homebuilders are leading the way with a 6% advance, with the thrifts & mortgages group following closely behind with a 5.7% gain.

In typical fashion, crude oil has traded in a choppy manner. Oil is down 0.4% to $109.54 per barrel after hitting an all-time high of $111.00 in earlier trade.

Mean while the 10-year note price has plummeted after there was weak demand during its auction.DJ30 +25.32 NASDAQ +18.24 SP500 +5.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1246/1574/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1543/1547/1.01 bln

[Roland99]

163. 300pt turnaround with no specific stimuli? hmmmm....

[Robbien]

167. The S&P said it would stop downgrading LDO funds

and everyone on Wall Street is partying.

Wonder who told S&P to knock it off.

[Roland99]

168. Maybe they'll just start classifying all future downgrades!

[AnneD]

164. Eat drink and be merry...

for tomorrow we may die. Does anyone here think these folks will hold the bag over the weekend. I look for blood on the floor and a downer in the food chain tomorrow.

Sorry for being so bearish-but that's how I have felt for some time. Yeah, I missed the rally last year-but I have been sleeping better.

[antigop]

166. The best of times is now...

The best of times is now.
What's left of Summer
But a faded rose?
The best of times is now.
As for tomorrow,
Well, who knows? Who knows? Who knows?
So hold this moment fast,
And live and love
As hard as you know how.
And make this moment last
Because the best of times is now,
Is now, is now.
Now, not some forgotten yesterday.
Now, tomorrow is too far away.
So hold this moment fast,
And live and love
As hard as you know how.
And make this moment last,
Because the best of times is now,
Is now, is now.

La Cage aux folles
http://www.stlyrics.com/lyrics/lacageauxfolles/thebestoftimes.htm

[w8liftinglady]

185. Homebuilders lead the way with a 6% advance?what did I miss?

[Ghost Dog]

169. Dollar's Slump Puts Morgan, Goldman on `Intervention Watch'

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The currency today fell below $1.56 per euro and slumped to the lowest level in 12 years versus the yen. That has prompted complaints from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today he backs a ``strong dollar'' and refused to elaborate when questioned at a press conference in Washington.

The challenge for policy makers is fighting the $3.2 trillion-a-day currency market while the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the U.S. economy falters. With traders increasing bets on a weaker dollar, the Group of Seven nations may be compelled to act, some strategists said.

``We're on an intervention watch,'' Stephen Jen, Morgan Stanley's London-based head of foreign-exchange research, said in a telephone interview today. ``While I don't think we have reached the threshold yet, the argument in favor of it is gradually becoming compelling.''

The dollar today dipped below 100 yen for the first time since 1995, when the G-7 last stepped in to prop up the U.S. currency. It's lost 15 percent against the euro since September as the Fed's rate reductions dull the currency's allure. The slide has accelerated in the past two weeks, putting the euro at $1.5624.

Executives and politicians across the world say they're becoming increasingly worried about the dollar's decline.

...

A united bid to aid the dollar may still not be around the corner. For now, a falling U.S. currency and surging euro are giving support to a weakening American economy by spurring its exports. It's also helping the ECB contain inflation, which is at a 14-year high of 3.2 percent.

Supporting the dollar may also prove futile as its decline partly reflects the Fed's cuts and the ECB's decision not to follow, said Chris Turner at ING Financial Markets.

...

``Failed intervention is worse than no intervention,'' said Turner, ING's head of currency research in London. ``Policy makers have their hands tied and will defer to the global priority of the Fed slashing interest rates.''

Japan may be more willing to step into markets at a time when its economy is deteriorating and as investors start to bet the Bank of Japan will cut rates by year-end, said Ashley Davies, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Singapore.

...

Policy makers are still stepping up their rhetoric. Trichet said March 10 that he's ``concerned'' about the euro's surge, while Nukaga said today that ``excessive movements'' are undesirable.

O'Neill also senses a shift in the Bush administration's stance. Paulson said on March 7 that ``the long-term fundamentals are strong, and I'm confident they'll be reflected in our currency market.''

O'Neill said G-7 finance ministers may sound an alarm when they convene in Washington on April 11, perhaps by inserting Paulson's statement of support for the dollar.

``A change in the G-7 statement is highly likely in April,'' said O'Neill. ``Whether they can last until then without doing anything is another question.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aOg5ATtR4yto&refer=currency

[DemReadingDU]

172. coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years

How do they prop up the dollar?

:shrug:

[Hugin]

174. Ohhh! ... 'prop it up'

They thought it was 'run it -thorough- a propeller'... Silly, Administration! :eyes:

[Karenina]

186. Deregulation has FAILED???

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3224977

[DemReadingDU]

193. Ernest Partridge: A Failed Experiment

6/5/07

On January 20, 1981, in his first inaugural address, Ronald Reagan told the nation: "Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem."

Thus began a grand experiment: Release the American economy from the bonds of government regulation. Individual enterprise and initiative, the profit motive, the free market and open competition will usher in a new birth of freedom and a new era of unprecedented prosperity.

“It’s morning in America.”

Twenty-six years later, what do we have? A dismantled and “outsourced” industrial base, an impoverished work force, a nine trillion dollar debt burden upon future generations, and a degradation of education and scientific research, and a captive media that deprives the public of essential news as it issues outright lies. In addition, the Bush administration, the current keeper of the covenant, has accomplished the trashing of the Constitution and its guaranteed Bill of Rights, a seemingly endless war with no prospect (or even definition) of victory, and the contempt of the peoples and governments of the civilized world.

The grand experiment has failed, and we are just beginning to realize the enormous costs of that failure.

How did it happen? It happened because the core dogmas of this so-called “conservatism” – the possibility and desirability of an ungoverned society, the superior “wisdom” of an unconstrained free market, the suitability of simple greed as a driving force of society – were fated from the start to fail the test of “real world” application.

more...
http://www.crisispapers.org/essays7p/experiment.htm

[Hugin]

195. Very good read.

Very scary, too. :o

[UpInArms]

198. I call them the contra-government

The twentieth century has been characterized by three developments of great political importance: the growth of democracy, the growth of corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy.
—Alex Carey

How does one describe a government that is intent upon the destruction of "government?" The word contrarian comes to mind because it is for all intents and purposes, an anti-government movement within the government. There are those among the citizenry that wish to see the end of the government for a variety of reasons. Some associated with David Koresh and the Branch Davidians were "dooms day-ers" or "cultists" and wished a departure from our society - it appears they got their wish. Some militias have attempted secession from the United States (Bo Gritz of Idaho, the Texas Constitutional Militia and the Freemen in Montana come to mind). We can see from the actions of George W. Bush and his administration that he, too, wishes to end our government as we have known it.

Bush has taken our Securities and Exchange Commission and given it to the very folks that it is to monitor. He has taken the Environmental Protection Agency and given it to the polluters. He has taken the State Department and given it to a radical fringe. He has taken the Justice Department and given it to a fundamentalist zealot. He has taken the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and given it to the power companies. He has taken the Department of the Interior and given it to the companies that will profit from the removal of public resources.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

203. Excellent, and this was written 6 years go

Thanks for the link!

[UpInArms]

205. yep

with these fingers

am just getting more jaded by the day

:hi:

[Karenina]

201. HAL-LO!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

192. and I was certain I heard it as

throw it from the helicopter!

[DemocratInSoCal]

196. Where Is That Picture From?

Is there any chance this is something I could purchase somewhere?

I'd love to have my own Helicopter Ben.

[UpInArms]

200. that and more are found here

http://idorfman.com/Charts/

[DemReadingDU]

204. great link

added to my favorites

[Ghost Dog]

176. By massive forex operations, blowing euros, yen, whatever to purchase dollars

which, yes, then most likely would continue to drop in value... Seems to me in the current circumstances they'd have to be very desperate or crazy or both :freak: on account of the FUNDAMENTALS.

[UpInArms]

191. they attempt to throw their own currencies under the bus

we'll see how well that works - the BOJ has been doing it for years, but they have been working very hard to decouple from us and work within the ASEAN trade group.

[Ghost Dog]

199. The Euro's Rise: Don't Expect a Rate Cut

The currency's advance against the dollar may hurt euro zone exporters a bit, but it's aiding the European Central Bank's efforts against inflation

/article... http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/mar2008/pi20080312_418100.htm?campaign_id=rss_eu

[Ghost Dog]

177. Euro= USD 1.563, GBP 0.769, CHF 1.579 and JPY 157.7 at this time

[Ghost Dog]

181. FOREX-Dollar hits new record low vs euro

Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:52pm EDT
NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - The dollar extended losses late on Thursday, hitting fresh record lows against the euro, in selling driven by technical factors.

The euro rose to $1.5644 against the dollar for the first time since it was launched, according to Reuters data. It last traded at $1.5627 <EUR=>.

A U.S. trader said stops in euro/dollar were triggered above $1.5630 .

Late on Thursday, Reuters reported that Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is requiring payment in euros in a recently opened fuel export contract, citing a trader who has purchased a cargo under the contract.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN1362448420080313?rpc=401&

[UpInArms]

188. from 1/21/01 until now in pictures

when Dimson got behind the wheel of the US economy, it felt like he had one of the fanciest vehicles in the world - it looked a lot like this:



now, 7 years later, after he trashed the car at every opportunity, he is pushing this one around and attempting to tell you it's in great shape

[Ghost Dog]

173. Food for thought: Ottoman Empire

... Under Selim and Suleiman, the empire became a dominant naval force, controlling much of the Mediterranean Sea.<6> The exploits of the Ottoman admiral Barbarossa Hayreddin Pasha, who commanded the Turkish navy during Suleiman's reign, led to a number of military victories over Christian navies. Among these were the conquest of Tunis and Algeria from Spain; the evacuation of Muslims and Jews from Spain to the safety of Ottoman lands (particularly Salonica, Cyprus, and Constantinople) during the Spanish Inquisition; and the capture of Nice from the Holy Roman Empire in 1543. This last conquest occurred on behalf of France as a joint venture between the forces of the French king Francis I and those of Barbarossa.<7> France and the Ottoman Empire, united by mutual opposition to Habsburg rule in southern and central Europe, became strong allies during this period. The alliance was economic as well as military, as the sultans granted France the right of trade within the empire without levy of taxation. In fact, the Ottoman Empire was by this time a significant and accepted part of the European political sphere, and entered into a military alliance with France, England and the Netherlands against Habsburg Spain, Italy and Habsburg Austria.

As the 16th century progressed, Ottoman naval superiority was challenged by the growing sea powers of western Europe, particularly Portugal, in the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean and the Spice Islands. With the Ottomans blockading sea-lanes to the East and South, the European powers were driven to find another way to the ancient silk and spice routes, now under Ottoman control. On land, the empire was preoccupied by military campaigns in the Austria and Persia, two widely-separated theaters of war. The strain of these conflicts on the empire's resources, and the logistics of maintaining lines of supply and communication across such vast distances, ultimately rendered its sea efforts unsustainable and unsuccessful. The overriding military need for defense on the western and eastern frontiers of the empire eventually made effective long-term engagement on a global scale impossible.

Suleiman's death in 1566 marked the beginning of an era of diminishing territorial gains. The rise of western European nations as naval powers and the development of alternative sea routes from Europe to Asia and the New World damaged the Ottoman economy. The effective military and bureaucratic structures of the previous century also came under strain during a protracted period of misrule by weak Sultans. But in spite of these difficulties, the empire remained a major expansionist power until the Battle of Vienna in 1683, which marked the end of Ottoman expansion into Europe.

European states initiated efforts at this time to curb Ottoman control of overland trade routes. Western European states began to circumvent the Ottoman trade monopoly by establishing their own naval routes to Asia. Economically, the huge influx of Spanish silver from the New World caused a sharp devaluation of the Ottoman currency and rampant inflation. This had serious negative consequences at all levels of Ottoman society. Sokullu Mehmet Pasha, who was the grand vizier of Selim II, created the projects of Suez Channel and Don-Volga Channel to save the economy but these were cancelled as well.

In southern Europe, a coalition of Catholic powers, led by Philip II of Spain, formed an alliance to diminish Ottoman naval strength in the Mediterranean Sea. Their victory over the Ottomans at the naval Battle of Lepanto (1571) hastened the end of the empire's primacy in the Mediterranean. In fact, Lepanto was considered by some earlier historians to signal the beginning of Ottoman decline. By the end of the 16th century, the golden era of sweeping conquest and territorial expansion was over. Nevertheless, within six months of the defeat a new Ottoman fleet of some 250 sail including eight modern galleasses<8> had been built, with the harbours of Constantinople turning out a new ship every day at the height of the construction. In any case Lepanto was a mere "revenge attack" since Cyprus had been taken from the Venetians before the two navies engaged in 1571. In discussing with a Venetian minister, the Turkish Grand Vizier commented "In capturing Cyprus from you we have cut off one of your arms; in defeating our fleet you have merely shaved off our beard".<9> The Sultan himself said, "the infidel has only singed my beard. It will grow again."<10> In reality, the enormous loss of experienced sailors proved to be a disaster from which the Ottomans never recovered, diminishing the effectiveness of their fleet.<11>

/... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_Empire

[DemReadingDU]

179. That's a huge buffet of food!

Is there a snack version? What is the signifcance of the Ottoman Empire to today? Thanks.

[Ghost Dog]

182. Inflation. n/t

[DemReadingDU]

187. I was cruising thru the wiki link

I was starting to compare the Ottoman Empire to Cheney's lust to control the Middle East for oil, but not having enough military to conquer all the countries, and everything collapsing. Now I need to go back and re-read more thoroughly. Thanks for the link!

[Ghost Dog]

189. Sorry, I was called away

but it didn't take long to resolve.

Some parallels I see are:

· A world-dominating economic power which would have done better, after reaching a certain scale, through continued diplomacy and economic cooperation with neighbors rather than through militaristic expansion;

· Competition for commodities (the trade routes to Persia, India, China and EastAsia) - eventually Europe also took over the bulk of manufacturing and became the leader in technological innovation;

· Inflation, in this case imported from the Americas rather than created out of thin air, which really did the empire in. The Europeans also used counterfeiting. The decline was long and agonising after that.

[DemReadingDU]

197. Thank you

I expect our decline will also be long and agonizing

[JNelson6563]

202. Another amazing SMT thread!

What a roller coaster this day was and it's all right here. You guys rock! :toast:

Julie

[AnneD]

206. Just reading the...

bon bons on this thread is enough to raise your economic IQ by 75-100 points.:toast: