STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday March 12

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday March 12, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 315
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2607 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2333 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2624
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 11, 2008

Dow... 12,156.81 +416.66 (+3.55%)
Nasdaq... 2,255.76 +86.42 (+3.98%)
S&P 500... 1,320.65 +47.28 (+3.71%)
Gold future... 976.00 +4.20 (+0.43%)
30-Year Bond 4.53% +0.08 (+1.84%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.60% +0.16 (+4.60%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Let's see if the sucker rally does its work today.

Irrational exuberance? You bet. The banks balance sheets look better today than at this time yesterday. But when consumer sentiment weighs - any Fed rescue is fleeting.

[Ghost Dog]

2. Asian Stocks Rise on Fed's Plan to Boost Liquidity; Banks Gain

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for a second day, extending a global rally, after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it will pour as much as $200 billion into the financial system to revive lending among banks.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia climbed in Sydney by the most in more than six weeks. Toyota Motor Corp., which gets 37 percent of its sales in North America, and BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, gained on speculation the U.S. central bank's plan will revive demand.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.6 percent to 140.08 as of 5:26 p.m. in Tokyo. Eight of the gauge's 10 industry groups advanced, with three stocks climbing for each one that fell. Financial stocks, the worst performing group this year, provided the biggest lift today.

``The Fed's move will restore confidence,'' said Yoji Takeda, who helps manage about $1.1 billion at RBC Investment (Asia) Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The outlook for the financial market has been stabilized for the time being. There are rising expectations financial companies won't need to further write down their assets.''

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.6 percent to 12,861.13 as the cost to protect the country's corporate debt from default fell from a record. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 2.4 percent, the biggest jump since Feb. 14.

All markets in Asia rose except China, which declined amid concern the government will raise interest rates to rein in inflation that's at an 11-year high. Malaysia's key stock index rebounded for a second day from its biggest decline in a decade, after the country's ruling coalition was returned to power with a reduced parliamentary majority.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=adxD.7TUh04o&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

6. HK shares gain after central banks boost liquidity

HONG KONG, March 12 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks climbed on
Wednesday after global central banks teamed up to inject
liquidity into credit markets, but the index pared gains by the
day's end as investors were wary the move was just a temporary
fix.

The news boosted financial shares globally, with HSBC
Holdings plc (0005.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) gaining in tandem to mark its third
consecutive rise.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI ended up nearly 2
percent at 23,422.76. The China Enterprises Index of Hong
Kong-listed mainland companies , or H shares, finished up
2.3 percent at 12,877.35.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAHKF07897020080312?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

7. Re. HSBC and Spitzer see this JackRiddler thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2995172#2995588

[ozymandius]

13. That's a great summary.

Recommended for it's eloquently plain honesty.

[Ghost Dog]

16. Yes indeed, I thought so, though I haven't been following the case closely.

It's my impression that someone at Spitzer's level would have high-up personal contacts at his banks.

[ozymandius]

18. No question about it.

Spitzer burned so many people including friends and political allies. He made enemies in all the wrong places.

[Ghost Dog]

9. Japan's GDP Grows More Than Estimated, Led by Exports

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew more than economists estimated in the fourth quarter as exports helped the nation weather a housing slump.

Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 3.5 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, faster than the 2.3 percent median forecast of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government last month said the world's second-largest economy grew 3.7 percent.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ayfn1n5p42PI&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

10. China's Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Pace Since 1999

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales climbed 20.2 percent, matching the fastest pace in at least nine years, a sign that consumer spending may sustain the world's fastest- growing major economy as export demand weakens.

The increase for January and February was the same as December's and more than the 19 percent median forecast of 18 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The figure was boosted by the fastest inflation in 11 years.

Spending fueled by rising incomes helps the expanding Chinese operations of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Carrefour SA, the world's biggest retailers, and may curb the economy's dependence on exports and investment for growth. Overseas shipments rose 6.5 percent in February, the least in almost six years.

``Domestic consumption is going to be a relatively strong growth engine in the near term,'' said Michael Dai, senior economist at Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. ``Trade might slow down, investment might slow down but consumption is going to hold up -- even more so with increasing inflation.''

Consumer-price inflation accelerated to 8.7 percent in February, underscoring the risk the world's fourth-largest economy will overheat after expanding 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter. Producer prices, the cost of goods as they leave the factory, rose 6.6 percent, the fastest pace in three years.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aEYqjtxu1PLg&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

11. China onshore dollar shortage worsens -traders

HONG KONG, March 12 (Reuters) - A shortage of dollars in China's onshore foreign currency market worsened on Wednesday, with the six-month dollar lending rate quoted higher at 880 basis points above LIBOR, traders said.

Deals were done in the Chinese market on Tuesday as high as 850 bps above the six-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rate <LIUSD6MD=>, the traders said. A month ago, the spread was only about half that size, they said.

Late on Tuesday, six-month dollar LIBOR was set at 2.74 percent.

Traders said the onshore dollar shortage was caused partly by China's curbs on short-term foreign currency debt. Banks say they have not yet been told their debt quotas for next quarter, making them jittery about the shortage as April approaches.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSHA27737520080312?rpc=611

[ozymandius]

3. Market WrapUp: Iceberg Ahead...SOS!

BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

Like the SS Titanic, the global credit markets continue to convulse on a daily basis having hit a massive iceberg last August. At this point, the screws have stopped turning, power is fading, and the pumps are losing their battle as water floods into the lower decks. The ship is down by the bows, and is starting to founder, dead in the water. Such is the case with the US economy, which is no longer growing, but sinking into recession. Among leading banks, credit is by and large no longer being extended, as banks husband what potential lending power they have left to shore up sagging loan-loss reserves. Given the absolutely unprecedented scope of the current credit collapse, already easily the most serious financial catastrophe seen since the Great Depression, we have to ponder the gravity and scope of the bear market that is now underway. To put some potential perspective on where things could be headed, we turn this week to the arcane, but on occasion, helpful concepts of R.N. Elliott, creator of the Elliot Wave Theory.

While Elliott’s work is always subject to interpretation, those who understand the Wave Principle and strictly adhere to the basic tenets of the theory usually come to more or less the same basic conclusions. While we cannot outline all of the principles involved in Elliott Wave Theory, in one small article the basic concept is that markets reflect crowd psychology in motion, and that crowd psychology tends to follow a rhythmical pattern that exists in nature. As a result, markets tend to advance in a five-wave sequence featuring three decisive moves up, separated by two intervening corrective moves either down or sideways. Following the conclusion of a five wave advance, markets then reverse into a bear market which unfolds as a three step sequence: a ‘down’ move, an ‘up’ move, and then a secondary (usually even larger) ‘down’ move.
.....

At the moment, we are pondering the market and the current set of events in light of both today’s Fed announcement and next week's Fed meeting on March 18th. As things presently stand, the Fed Fund futures are pricing in a .50 basis point cut for next week. The question of the day then becomes, “What happens if the Fed cuts .50 basis points, and that is what expectations are?” The point being, we are talking about another very large rate cut, and a wide perception ahead of time that this is what the Fed will do. Hence, we see the risk of the post rate-cut announcement rally being a serious wimp out, another fizzle, that is, if it happens at all. In our view, risk is high and rising that another bout of disappointment is in the offing, especially if “ALL” (cynically) the Fed does is cut .50 bps. Over the next few days, any retracement toward new lows in price followed by a second knee jerk bounce perhaps extending a day or two past the Fed meeting may be all we see from the stock market. That could then be followed, in turn, by a more violent and aggressive sell off to a serious bout of sequential new lows.

Yet another market to ponder is that of the floundering US Dollar. Another .50 to .75 point rate cut is REALLY NOT likely to go over well in the currency market. At the moment, we have a Dollar already in free-fall, definitely NOT an orderly decline. Recent comments by the BOJ and ECB are also not encouraging on either the rate-cutting front or the central bank intervention front, and thus, we wonder what’s next for the Dollar? It seems to us that if the Fed does not move back to a more gradualist approach, then the risks will continue the present round of ‘weak dollar stokes higher oil, higher oil stokes even higher commodity prices, higher commodity prices force slower consumer spending, lower consumer confidence and thus, the Fed ends up feeding a deepening recession.’ Of course on the other hand, the Fed is desperate to save the banks and on the surface, only slashing short term rates will they succeed in creating the positive carry trade (the vig) needed to re-liquefy bank balance sheets.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

14. The first paragraph makes me furious.

Fed's loan rescue sparks big stock rally

WASHINGTON - Staring at spreading financial dangers, the Federal Reserve announced a rescue package Tuesday that would pour as much as $200 billion into banks and investment houses and allow them to put up risky home-loan packages as collateral.

Wall Street rebounded with its biggest rally since 2002 — and hoped the Fed had even more cards to play.

The Federal Reserve's maneuver, coordinated with central banks overseas, was its latest effort to stem the global credit crisis and severe housing woes that threaten to bury the United States in its first recession since 2001. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have been stretching for new and imaginative ways to confront the situation.

.....

The Fed announced the creation of a new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) to provide financial institutions with 28-day loans of Treasury securities, rather than overnight loans. The institutions would pledge other securities — including federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities, such as those of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — as collateral for the loans. Fed officials said it's the first time they'll be accepting mortgage-backed securities through this type of lending program.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080311/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_credit_crisis

---

Question: How does this rescue of banks' balance sheets juice the system for more home loans when banks continue to tighten lending standards?

[Ghost Dog]

19. It doesn't directly help home loans or home owners, does it.

Also, how is the Fed going to place values on the worse-than-junk to be offered as 28-day collateral?

[ozymandius]

22. This move only helps the banks.

This is a huge win for the banks. They get to trade junk for secure government bonds. Banks can now trade bonds as they would liquid capital. The public foots the bill. What a deal!

[TalkingDog]

28. In practical terms it won't help anything.

It won't help the wheat rust that is going to decimate a really huge portion of the wheat crop this year. It won't bring down the price of rice in China, where it has risen over 60% in the past year. It won't help the persistant world wide dry/drought spell. It won't correct the ocean temperatures that are denuding the sea of life. It won't help the salmon season which has seen 2 years of the worst catches on record.

People are going to starve. Money can't make food. It can only buy it. The bankers and their rich friends will be okay for a while; they'll have money to burn. Literally. But middle class parents with hungry children aren't going to watch the Jones' kids eat while theirs go hungry. That only works on the persistantly poor and downtrodden. People who understand that it can be different and should be different tend to be the squeaky wheel.

Sorry for harshing their buzz....

Mine's been way harshed for quite a while.



(edited for bummer spelling skilz)

[Ghost Dog]

30. EU told to prepare for flood of climate change migrants

Global warming threatens to severely destabilise the planet, rendering a fifth of its population homeless, top officials say

...Now, according to the EU's two senior foreign policy officials, Europe needs to brace itself for a new wave of migration with a very different cause - global warming. The ravages already being inflicted on parts of the developing world by climate change are engendering a new type of refugee, the "environmental migrant".

Within a decade "there will be millions of environmental migrants, with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon," predict Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU's chief foreign policy coordinator and the European commissioner for external relations. "Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure."

They point out that some countries already badly hit by global warming are demanding that the new phenomenon be recognised internationally as a valid reason for migration.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/10/climatechange.eu

[54anickel]

44. Got a call from the money guy last week - seems Goldman Sachs will be

offering bonds at something like 6.5% in the very near future...told him thanks but no thanks and asked just how in the hell they could do that? Guess now we know. Gotta love how the rats have rigged this whole game. They've got those of us trying to store up a few nuts for retirement hooked into the game of collecting those nuts out of our taxpayer pocket.

[ozymandius]

66. That's just insulting to an investor who 'knows'.

It's like buying back something that's been stolen from you. Good call on that 54anickel.

[54anickel]

80. Sad thing is that they've pretty much "gotcha"....

If you don't buy back what's been stolen you'll have absolutely no nuts for your retirement. Meanwhile Goldman makes money, my money guy makes money and I'm no further ahead, and actually quite behind when the stealth inflationary tax is added into the mix. Knew I should've bought more gold when the idiot son of an asshole was crowned! I'm waiting for that to be stolen thru the IMF selling next. :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

82. Sitting on just five kilos (only) here.

:-(

[flashl]

23. Is there a difference in the Fed's actions yesterday and this? ...

Senator Schumer's Letter to Federal Home Loan Bank

Nov 2007

(Sept. 2007) In exchange for the $51.1 billion in advances, Countrywide pledged $62.4 billion in loans, nearly 80% of its entire investment portfolio, as collateral. Of that, almost half consisted of pay option ARMs, most of them underwritten without any income verification. Delinquencies on the company’s pay option ARMs leaped 78% in the last quarter.

[Ghost Dog]

20. Crowd psychology, yes. And with today's 'spin-meisters' mixing it up.

And with the 'real economy' (or indeed much of any kind of reality) still largely off the narcotic TV screens.

[Ghost Dog]

4. Financials buoy Europe shares after cenbank action

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - European shares rose sharply in early trade on Wednesday, led by financials after Tuesday's joint central bank effort to unfreeze the credit markets helped soothe concern about the outlook for banks' profitability.

A 3-percent rise in Wall Street shares on Tuesday helped spark a bounce in global equities .MIWD00000PUS after the Federal Reserve, along with other major central banks, said it would pump extra liquidity into the money markets, where 3-month interbank lending rates for euros have risen to two month highs.

Shares in UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest casualty of the credit crunch among the major European banks, shot up 3.4 percent, making it one of the major positive influences on the broader market, while rival Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 3.8 percent and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 3.1 percent.

By 0843 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 1.2 percent at 1,284.62 points. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about seven to one.

Mining shares were also up, reflecting an easing in investor fears over global demand for commodities. Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 3.4 percent, while BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 3.1 percent.

"Banks have been on the backfoot for an awfully long time now, so ... the central banks coordinating to inject liquidity to try to ease fears in the credit markets and make sure (the stress) doesn't translate through to the real economy is good for the economy in a sense and in particular good for financials," said Edmund Shing, a strategist at BNP Paribas in Paris.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL12945520080312?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

12. Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations index tumbles in March

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The general outlook on economy is turning darker and darker for Swiss citizens, according to the Economic Expectations Index by the ZEW centre for economic research, which has posted in March its fifth consecutive decline.

In March, the ZEW economic expectations index has declined 16.2 points to the current -71.7 level (from -55.6 in February). The assessment of the current situation index has dropped 2.7 points to 69.6.

/.. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=ce0153a2-94c4-4874-91e2-24d626d0dd10

Edit: Few illusions for the well-informed and canny Swiss.

[Ghost Dog]

15. Euro spikes higher after strong euro zone industrial production data

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro spiked higher against the dollar after
euro zone industrial production figures for January came in well above
forecasts.

Data show industrial output for the region rose by 0.9 pct from December for
a very strong 3.8 pct annual gain, far above the forecasts for much more
moderate increases a 0.3 pct and 2.5 pct, respectively.

At 10.14 am, the euro was trading at 1.5453 against the dollar, up from
around 1.5384 just before the data were released.

/.. http://orange.advfn.com/news_Forex-Euro-spikes-higher-after-strong-euro-zone-industrial-production-data_25231687.html

[Ghost Dog]

26. German exports to break 1 trln eur mark this yr for first time - BGA trade assn

BERLIN (Thomson Financial) - German exports will break through the 1 trln eur mark for the first time this year, despite the strong euro and the slowing economy, the BGA federation of German wholesalers and exporters said.

Exports are expected to rise 5 pct from 2007 to 1.017 trln eur, it said.

Although the strong euro will continue to weigh on exports to the US, the buying of intermediary products will become cheaper, BGA president Anton Boerner added.

/.. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=e259dc55-a01a-4b4c-8615-c296bb588ea1

[ozymandius]

5. Today's Reports

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/08
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -3056K

2:00 PM Treasury Budget Feb
Briefing Forecast -$174.0B
Market Expects -$170.0B
Prior -$120.0B

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

84. U.S. Feb. federal budget deficit widens to record $175.6 bln

08. U.S. budget deficit $263.3 bln year-to-date vs. $162.8 bln
2:00 PM ET, Mar 12, 2008 - 47 minutes ago

09. Federal deficit boosted by leap day, economic slump
2:00 PM ET, Mar 12, 2008 - 47 minutes ago

10. U.S. Feb. federal budget deficit widens to record $175.6 bln
2:00 PM ET, Mar 12, 2008 - 47 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

117. The February gap marked a 46.3 percent increase over the previous all-time single-month deficit

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/usa_budget_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government turned in a $175.56 billion budget deficit for February, a record for any month, as federal spending grew but a slowing economy caused receipts to fall 12.1 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday.

The February gap marked a 46.3 percent increase over the previous all-time single-month deficit of $119.99 billion in February 2007 and soundly exceeded Wall Street economists' consensus estimate of a $160.0 billion deficit in a Reuters poll.

February receipts fell to $105.72 billion from $120.31 billion in February 2007, the Treasury said, as both corporate and individual income tax payments slowed.

February outlays grew 17.1 percent to $281.29 billion, a record for February, from $240.30 billion in February 2007, the Treasury said.

The calendar contributed to the month's grim fiscal results. A Treasury spokeswoman said February outlays were increased by $19 billion because some March benefit payments for Medicare, Social Security and other programs were shifted into February because March started on a Saturday.

...more...

then they try and blame it all on leap year!

[ozymandius]

8. Oil prices hover near $109 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices held steady Wednesday after falling back from an overnight record near $110 a barrel, supported by the further weakening of the U.S. dollar.

In Tokyo currency trading Wednesday, the greenback fell against the yen in Asia despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to pump $200 billion into the financial markets to help ease the strain from the credit crisis.

The Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England announced that they were joining with other central banks to provide more relief in the credit crisis. The relief plan is seen as likely to remove pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates before its next meeting.

.....

Light, sweet crude for April delivery fell 28 cents to $108.64 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

On Tuesday, crude futures settled at a record finish of $108.75 a barrel, still up 85 cents on the day after falling back from an all-time trading high of $109.72 a barrel.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

85. Crude hits $110 a barrel for the first time

05. Crude hits $110 a barrel for the first time
2:28 PM ET, Mar 12, 2008 - 19 minutes ago

07. Crude hits $109.9 a barrel, a new record high
2:14 PM ET, Mar 12, 2008 - 33 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

89. Oil ends at new high of $109.92 after hitting $110.2 earlier

05. Oil ends at new high of $109.92 after hitting $110.2 earlier
2:52 PM ET, Mar 12, 2008 - 17 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

17. Will Bank Recapitalization Require US Government Sponsorship?

Perspective from Naked Capitalism:

The Wall Street Journal on Monday said US regulators have been urging banks to raise more capital. John Dizard argues in the Financial Times that banks need to do so posthaste:

We don't, however, have a lot of time to avoid the self-reinforcing contraction of the financial system that is the precursor of a depression. So while the philosophical and legal arguments over the next bank regulatory regime are being worked out, the American and European banking systems have to raise a lot of new capital, and raise it now.

It would appear that the scale of new capital issuance required for the banks is so large that some form of official sponsorship is required to make the effort work. The longer the capital-raising exercise is put off, the larger it will have to be, and the greater the degree of government sponsorship....

One of the interesting aspects of the crisis is how some mid-level and lower-level people in the financial institutions are far more coherent and direct than their leaders. It's as if they've already given up waiting for upper management to give a sensible View from the Top. I could pick out a number of papers and documents from the various banks and dealers, but a pretty good example was published at the end of last month under the auspices of the US Monetary Policy Forum. Called "Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown", it was co-authored by a group including David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley, Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, Anil Kashyup of the University of Chicago, and Hyun Song Shin of Princeton.

Since the estimates were drawn up more than 15 minutes ago, they're already out of date, but they're not a bad place to start. The group estimates that the losses on mortgage paper will ultimately total about $400bn, with about half of that being incurred by "leveraged US institutions". They go on to estimate that new equity raised so far from investors such as the sovereign wealth funds is of the order of $100bn. A series of calculations based on conventional banking economics leads them to estimate that "under this baseline scenario, the total contraction of balance sheets for the financial sector is $1,9800bn".

.....

Yet it isn't at all clear who will give them the dough. Private equity firms have never been keen about low-growth (in normal times) regulated businesses, and the major firms are pulling in their horns in the face of big losses.

We've reported sightings as of a month ago that sovereign wealth funds were turning down further requests for dough from struggling US banks, and no wonder. Their earlier infusions are under water. Worse, in China, there has been ongoing criticism of the governments $3 billion, whoops, now $1.5 billion stake in Blackstone. The fact that Citic invested in Bear Stearns, and now Bear is rumored to be at risk of insolvency, will not doubt lead to further public outcry. Thus, even if the powers that be thought a US financial player might make a good invest, they will be reluctant to pull the trigger. They'd have only personal and institutional downside.

[Ghost Dog]

37. From Rubini's RGE Monitor Newsletter today:

How many steps away are we from a systemic financial meltdown? By now, it seems that Nouriel Roubini's 12 step scenario is growing more likely by the day. A growing number of leading academics and financial analysts are now endorsing the once seemingly extreme estimate of $1 trillion in losses for the financial system. A recent joint paper by academics and industry participants, "Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Meltdown", calculates that an estimated $400bn of mortgage-related losses could cause a credit contraction resulting in a $1 trillion fallout for the real economy. This would translate into a 1.3% reduction in GDP growth. Extending the loss estimate to non-mortgage debt, Goldman Sachs calculates the hit to GDP to be around 2% this year. UBS' and Merrill Lynch's total expected writedown estimates are around $600bn, still a long way to go from the $180bn currently acknowledged by major banks. Take a look at: "Investment Banks' Earnings Outlook: $160bn Writedowns Acknowledged, $600bn Expected" and "Estimating the Losses from the (Subprime) Mortgage Meltdown".

...

While the TAF has been an effective way to fund banks' reserve requirements and free up liquidity for other purposes, the agency bond term repos with dealer banks and especially the latest private-label mortgage repos against Treasuries expose the central bank to some credit risk. See: "How Sound Is the AAA Mortgage Collateral the Fed Will Be Swapping Treasuries For?" Indeed, Federal Reserve economists are perfectly aware that, faced with solvency rather than liquidity concerns, a central bank can stimulate interbank lending and credit markets only by being ready to extend some loss-making loans itself. Analysts also agree that henceforth any effective solution to credit market disruption will require government involvement on a much bigger scale. See "Was the U.S. Mortgage Market Effectively Nationalized? Yes, As Early As Q3 2007 and "Credit Squeeze Won't Go Away: What Are Central Banks' Alternative Tools?"

Meanwhile, the need for investment banks to de-leverage their balance sheets in view of mounting capital losses led them to tighten margins on all kind of borrowed securities, including Treasury bonds. Highly leveraged institutions such as hedge funds and private equity funds felt the pinch immediately, and analysts agree that we've just seen the beginning of this crunch. It is important to note that hedge funds are large players in the credit default swap market as net protection sellers. Moreover, hedge funds and private equity investors were among the largest providers of leveraged loans -- the asset class next in line to take a substantial hit once liquidations take place on a serious scale and positions are marked-to-market.

/see... http://www.rgemonitor.com/

[sendero]

21. Another opportunity..

.... to buy some more UltraShort ETFs.

[DemReadingDU]

24. Healthcare fraud trial in Columbus, Ohio - Update

3/11/08 National Century defense calls case 'slipshod and sloppy'

Closing arguments in the trial of five former executives at National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. moved into a second day Tuesday with defense lawyers characterizing the government's case as "slipshod and sloppy."

The Justice Department's final response before jurors were asked to decide the case accused the defendants of trying to shift blame for the alleged fraud at the heart of the company's collapse.

Leonard Yelsky, the attorney for executive James Dierker, told the 15 jurors who had listened to testimony for five-and-a-half weeks that the government did a poor job of making its case, saying the real criminals are free. The government has accused Dierker and the others of running the nation's largest health-care financing company into the ground by engaging in an eight-year fraud that resulted in National Century's $3 billion collapse and bankruptcy in 2002.

National Century was a financier for health-care providers, buying medical firms' receivables at a discount and packaging them as asset-backed bonds for sale to investors. Along with Dierker, Rebecca Parrett, Donald Ayers, Roger Faulkenberry and Randolph Speer are facing charges of money laundering, conspiracy and fraud. All have denied the charges.

Yelsky was the fourth defense attorney to give closing arguments in the case. Attorneys for Faulkenberry, Speer and Parrett gave their closing statements Monday, each telling the jury the government failed to give the complete story. When it was Yelsky's turn, he reminded jurors the National Century employees who testified against the executives had committed fraud and admitted to lying. One of those witnesses was never charged by the government, Yelsky said, because she was just doing her job.

"Isn't that what we call the Hitler defense?" Yelsky asked, referring to German government and military officials who said they were following Nazi orders in committing atrocities during World War II.

The government has accused Dierker of fraud because it alleges two wire transfers he approved were illegal. Yelsky told jurors the government has no proof of those claims, and then showed jurors documents approving the transfers. Dierker's name is not on the documents, Yelsky said. Instead, they were granted by Lance Poulsen, National Century's CEO and co-founder, he said.

Yelsky ended his argument with a plea for acquittal. He told the jury the United States isa nation where a citizen can fight accusations made against him by the government. "The United States never loses when justice is done in these courts," he said.

Brian Dickerson, attorney for Ayers, one of National Century's owners and its chief operating officer, focused on relevant information he claimed the government never presented. For example, he said the government never asked John Snoble to testify. Snoble was National Century's controller and his name appears on some National Century documents the government has said prove its allegations.

"Three out of 350 employees (at National Century) took the stand. Why?" Dickerson asked.

The three former employees the government did call couldn't say Ayers ever asked them to do anything illegal, Dickerson said.

Other information the government claimed the defendants concealed from investors - such as how investor-raised funds were used to keep struggling health-care clients in business - were disclosed in company documents given to investors, Dickerson said. Investors never completely read those documents, he said.

When Dickerson completed his closing remarks, the government got a last chance to make its case, and prosecutor Kathleen McGovern attempted to sway the jury with a logical argument. While the executives can argue "all day long" that their actions were authorized by the company's governing documents, McGovern asked the jurors why they then falsified investor reports if they did nothing wrong?

McGovern said each defense attorney told the jury that their client did nothing wrong, or shifted blame for National Century's collapse to others, or argued the government didn't tell jurors the full story. She countered by asking jurors how many witnesses they need to hear from to confirm the defendants lied.

U.S. District Court Judge Algenon Marbley is expected to give the jury its instructions this afternoon so it can begin deliberations.

http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/03/10/daily13.html?t=printable


3/12/08 Fate of five executives now rests with jurors
Feds say defendants lied; defense faults feds

Lying was a way of life for five executives at National Century Financial Enterprises, federal prosecutors said yesterday during closing arguments in the fraud trial. The five are charged in connection with the downfall of the company based in Dublin that helped finance hospitals and other health-care providers. The company went bankrupt in 2002, and investors lost at least $1.9 billion.

Two days of closing arguments ended yesterday, concluding the trial after five weeks before federal Judge Algenon L. Marbley. The case against Donald H. Ayers, James E. Dierker, Roger S. Faulkenberry, Rebecca S. Parrett and Randolph H. Speer now is in the hands of the jury, which began deliberations about 4 p.m. The five have been accused of charges ranging from conspiracy to money-laundering.

more...
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/03/12/NatCen12.ART_ART_03-12-08_C8_699JU4D.html?sid=101

link to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3220486&mesg_id=3220892

[AnneD]

53. Thanks for posting this Dem...

it's been a great soap oprea:popcorn:

[DemReadingDU]

55. To be continued...

The trial is the first of four scheduled this year into the demise of National Century. Of the 12 people charged, four already have pleaded guilty.

[chat_noir]

25. Dollar Declines on Speculation Fed Rescue Package Won't Succeed

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro and the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to break the gridlock in money- market lending and stem credit losses.

``Read the need for such new measures as being a symptom of what ails the world and not a panacea for its problems,'' said David Simmonds, the London-based global head of currency research at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, the world's fourth-biggest foreign-exchange trader. ``Stay short dollars.''

The U.S. currency also declined as traders wagered the Fed will cut rates by as much as three quarters of a percentage point to prevent a recession, while the European Central Bank keeps borrowing costs unchanged. The yen advanced against the dollar and the euro after a government report showed Japan's economy grew faster than forecast in the fourth quarter.

The dollar fell to $1.5469 per euro by 7:47 a.m. in New York, from $1.5338 yesterday, when it declined to $1.5495, the weakest level since the European single currency's debut in 1999. It slipped to 102.49 per yen from 103.42 yen. The euro was at 158.59 yen from 158.61.

The U.S. currency also dropped to $2.0168 against the U.K. pound from $2.0064 before Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling delivers his first budget statement to Parliament at noon in London today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeIwKgYrxR_k&refer=home

[Ghost Dog]

29. Euro charges towards record high vs dlr, data lifts

Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:43am GMT
LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - The euro raced towards a record high versus the dollar on Wednesday as strong data reinforced a view that the European Central Bank is not rushing to ease monetary policy while U.S. authorities are seen slashing rates.

The greenback got a boost on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve lifted short-term funding to primary dealers to $200 billion and allowed them to use a wider array of mortgage debt as collateral. Central banks in the euro zone, Britain, Canada and Switzerland also took action.

This sparked a rally in equity markets and set the dollar up for its biggest one-day percentage rise versus the yen in nearly seven months.

But data showing euro zone industrial output rose much more than expected in January gave investors the excuse to resume dollar selling .

The strong European data came after hawkish talk from ECB board member Axel Weber on Tuesday who said high price pressure left the central bank with no room to cut rates.

...

Although markets have trimmed their bets for Fed rate cuts on the liquidity news, they are still pricing in a 2-in-3 chance of a 75 basis points easing this month alone FEDWATCH.

This compares with expectations of less than 50 basis points of cuts from the ECB over the whole of 2008 FEIZ8.

By 1114 GMT the euro had risen as high as $1.5477, less than 20 ticks off an all-time high set the previous session <EUR=>.

The dollar fell 0.8 percent against a basket of six major currencies to 72.677, homing in on a record low of 72.462 set at the end of last week .DXY.

...

In a sign that the dollar's weakness will lead central banks to change the composition of their forex holdings, Jordan said it was set to reducing the U.S. currency's composition in its currency reserves .

China's commerce minister said his country should hold its FX reserves in various currencies also raising the spectre of dollar selling.

...

Analysts see scope for more euro gains against the greenback as the European economy seems to be relatively immune to problems besetting the United States.

"Economic news continues to support the euro bulls argument for decoupling and until the market begins to see evidence to the contrary the path of least resistance in the (euro/dollar) pair remains up," said Forex Capital Markets in a note to clients.

With the euro up almost 6 percent since the start of the year, investors will be looking for any comments from policymakers on exchange rates.


/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKL1289147220080312?rpc=401&&pageNumber=1

[DemReadingDU]

27. Fleckenstein: Next shoe to drop: Prime mortgages

3/10/08 Next shoe to drop: Prime mortgages by Bill Fleckenstein
The credit crunch is cutting a broad swath across the economy, and it's hard to know how far it will go. That's because for years, the housing bubble was the heart of the economy.

According to a friend I've dubbed the "Lord of the Dark Matter," credit is rapidly being withdrawn across a broad spectrum -- especially for the major brokers, giants like Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) and Citigroup (C, news, msgs), which have served as enormous financial intermediaries. This is now raising the costs for nearly all credit-oriented hedge funds. And, my friend said, the pace of massive de-leveraging could accelerate further. That in all likelihood would feed on itself.

I believe the next area of the credit sector to implode will likely be Alt-A -- loans granted to people who didn't want to document their income, also known as liar loans -- which will help illuminate the fact that our mortgage problems were never just subprime. Rather, they sprang from one big credit bubble, thanks to which mortgages were handed out to anyone who could fog a mirror. Most people took on more than they should have. (Some are now walking away from their obligations, a development recently highlighted in the media.)

In time, it will be clear that prime mortgages are also vulnerable.

Finally, in light of all the government bailout attempts, I would just add my own suggestion: Let the government get out of the way, enforce the rules that exist, and let the markets decide who should get a mortgage and at what rate.

To think the government can fix the problem is similar to the Fed thinking that easy money can solve all problems -- when, to repeat, easy money is what brought us to this sorry state in the first place.

more...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/NextShoeToDropPrimeMortgages.aspx


Fleckenstein: in order to prepare for what lies ahead, folks need to understand the path that brought us here, which is one reason why he wrote "Greenspan's Bubbles."
http://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

[TrogL]

35. so stupidity got us into this mess, stupidity can get us out of it

right? :shrug:

[Hugin]

62. That about sums up the plan, at the moment...

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

31. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 72.638 Change -0.542 (-0.71%)

Is the Fed Trying to Avoid a 75bp Rate Cut in March?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Is_the_Fed_Trying_to_1205271457728.html

The Federal Reserve is getting desperate and they are pulling out all of the stops. Minutes after the US trade balance numbers were released this morning, the Fed announced auctions to lend as much as $200 billion in US Treasuries. Yesterday, we indicated that the dollar could rally this week and even though this wasn’t the trigger that we had expected, it achieved the outcome. Whether the dollar will continue to rally is dependent upon tomorrow’s retail sales report, Friday’s consumer price index and the amount of easing that the Federal Reserve delivers next week. In response to today’s announcement, Fed fund futures are now pricing in only a 62 percent chance of a 75bp rate cut, down from 86 percent yesterday and 98 percent on Monday. Today’s plan helps to reduce the Federal Reserve’s urgency to lower interest rates, but is that the main reason for their move? Yes and no. Over the past few months, the Fed has been growing increasingly frustrated with banks and their resistance to lend or to offer more flexibility to struggling homeowners. Not only has this hindered the central bank’s efforts, but it has also exacerbated the liquidity strains in the financial markets. In response, the Fed is allowing primary dealers to swap their mortgage banked securities for Treasuries to raise cash. If the banks take the bait, the Federal Reserve may be able to avoid stepping up the degree of their rate cuts once again. In late January, the Fed slowed down by cutting interest rates 50bp. If they have to step up the pace, it would immediately send a message to the markets that things are getting worse and the Fed is quickly losing control. (Will the Fed Cut by 50 or 75bp?) For currency traders, the announcement has been dollar and carry trade positive, but if tomorrow’s retail sales report is weak, the dollar could easily give back a significant portion of today’s gains. We expect the volume of retail sales to decline, but with food and gasoline prices on the rise, the value of goods sold could increase which makes forecasting the retail sales report a particularly tough call. Nonetheless, consumer spending is the backbone of the US economy and if it is weak, even the generous move by the Fed today may not stop the dollar from falling.

...more...

Euro Right Back To the Highs on More Evidence of Decoupling - 1.5500 in Sight?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Right_Back_To_the_1205318878127.html

After a one day correction EURUSD bounced right back blowing through the 1.5400 figure and zeroed in on the 1.5500 level as better than expected Industrial Production data provided more evidence that EZ economy continues to decouple from the problems in US. Industrial Production jumped to 3.6% from 2.6% forecast as the regions producers grew at a healthy pace irrespective of the disadvantageous exchange rates. Still, with the pair climbing to record highs, further progress for the EZ industrial sector is likely to be considerably more difficult. Nevertheless, for the time being the economic news continues to support the euro bulls argument for decoupling and until the market begins to see evidence to the contrary the path of least resistance in the pair remains up.

In Asia, Japanese GDP figures showed a surprising increase to 3.5% from 2.3% with growth fueled by exports to emerging market nations. Although Japan remains an export driven economy, it is becoming less and less depended on the US market as a primary source of revenue. As emerging market nations continue to expand and grow they become increasingly more important to Japanese multinationals making them less vulnerable to any downturn in US demand. Furthermore, while exchange rate differentials in USDJPY have made the US market considerably less profitable as yen has appreciated, the relatively high levels of EURJPY have allowed the Japanese corporates to shift their focus to the EZ as they try to increase their profitability in that region.

In short, this new dynamic may go a long way towards explaining why the Japanese officials have been relatively lasses-faire in their attitude towards a strengthening yen even as the pair approaches the key 100 barrier. The US market, while still important to Japanese commercial interests is not longer be the primary driver of Japanese growth and as such USDJPY exchange rate matter far less to Japanese policymakers than they did a few years ago.

Meanwhile in UK, the GBPUSD continued its rebound as the Trade Balance data printed more or less in line aided by higher EURGBP exchange rates that helped UK producers. More importantly, the markets have viewed yesterday’s Fed announcement as a boon for the pound, given the raft of credit problems in UK capital markets. If equities can put in another positive day, cable should continue to perform well especially on the crosses against the low yielders.

...more...

US Fed: Is Bernanke More Concerned About a Recession, Inflation, or the Credit Crunch?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Fed__Is_Bernanke_More_1205253760907.html

The Federal Reserve is pulling out all the stops, as the Bank announced on Tuesday morning that they would expand their securities lending program in an attempt to instill stability in the financial markets. Furthermore, the Fed joined forces with the ECB and SNB to triple the size of existing swap lines, which will allow them to borrow dollars from the US central bank and then lend the dollars to their own banks. The moves indicate that the Fed is now in panic mode as they fight to prevent a seizure in the credit markets. How about that pesky inflation issue? Crude oil has gone on to hit yet another record of $110/bbl, but with economic indicators pointing towards recession, the FOMC has brushed off the building price pressures and will continue to slash the fed funds rate aggressively.

How much do you think the Federal Reserve will cut rates by on March 18? Vote in our poll and discuss the topic in the DailyFX Forum.


Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Board Chairman (Voting Member)

“In many cases, when a homeowner has little or no equity left, a stressed borrower has less ability and less financial incentive to try to remain in the home. In this environment, principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.” – March 4, 2008

Frederic Mishkin, Federal Reserve Board Governor (Voting Member)

“The first of the reasons (why the dollar's inflation threat is limited) is that exporters usually price to market. They aren't able to raise their markups to compensate for the currency decline any more than they think the market will bear without losing sales to competitors. Second, exporters often price their products in the first place in the currency of the country to which they are selling. That's especially true in the United States because of the role the dollar plays in world markets. And third, in-country transportation and distribution costs, unaffected by exchange rates, make up a large portion of the final sales price of many goods.” – March 7, 2008

Richard Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President (Voting Member)

“We are supposedly and are, in practice, a contemplative group. Reacting to pressures in the short term is a mistake. We should not be reactive but contemplative.” – March 7, 2008

Sandra Pianalto, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President (Voting Member)

“Economic activity is, in fact, highly vulnerable to a credit crunch and our policy actions have been aggressive.” – March 6, 2008

Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President (Alternate Voting Member)

“Even so, I expect both total and core inflation to moderate over the next few years, to under 2 percent, an outcome that is broadly consistent with my interpretation of the Fed's price stability mandate. And I see the risks to this outcome as roughly balanced.” – March 7, 2008

...more...

[formercia]

32. Dump 200 Billion in funny money into the economy

and the value of the Dollar tanks. What a surprise. :sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

36. It's desparaging when I think of worse alternatives.

At least we're not Argentina. Or Zimbabwe. Or the Weimar Republic circa 1920.

Is there anything less than a catastrophe to compare America's abysmal monetary state?

Please?

Anyone?

[formercia]

40. It's going to be a lot worse than the Weimar Republic

"At least we're not Argentina. Or Zimbabwe. Or the Weimar Republic circa 1920."

The difference is the sheer volume of US wealth out there.

I tried to extrapolate the M3 to the current and came up with 13 Trillion. Just imagine how much wealth goes up in smoke for every percent drop in the value of the Dollar.

My comparisons aren't 100% Kosher, but close enough for government work.

[Warpy]

90. Shortest sucker rally in history, too

I see the Dow is edging downward.

[Ghost Dog]

39. Euro= USD 1.547, GBP 0.767, CHF 1.583 and JPY 158.8 at this time

[Ghost Dog]

86. Euro= USD 1.552, GBP 0.767, CHF 1.579 and JPY 158.2 at this time

[Roland99]

88. 1.60 is looking like a near-certainty in the near future.

:scared:

[DemReadingDU]

33. bonddad: An Overview of the Basic Problem We Face

3/12/08

Let's start with this chart from the Census Bureau
Let's add a graph of the savings rate into the mix
and a graph of retail and food services
and a graph of consumption expenditures

So, let's sum up.

1.) When this expansion started, US consumers were already spending just about everything they made.
2.) Median income has been stagnant for this expansion.
3.) Yet, personal consumption expenditures and retail sales increased at strong rates.

Where did the money come from?

This whole expansion has been financed by debt acquisition. Americans have clearly gone deeper and deeper into debt to keep on spending.

more, and graphs too...
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/03/overview-of-basic-problem-we-face.html

[ozymandius]

41. and from Bonddad's colleague, Jerome a Paris:

They see bubbles everywhere now

I must admit that I'm continually amazed these days about how easily the oil price increases and the development of renewable energy are labelled as "bubbles." After years during which the blatant real estate bubble was ignored by all "serious" commentators (and after an earlier decade when the reality of the dotcom bubble was similarly denied until the crash had happened), they now find it extraordinarily to use that label freely for any inconvenient price evolution.

But, of course, it is easy to understand. It is so much more comfortable to paint the ever-higher oil prices, and the development of still thoroughly hippie-tainted wind power as temporary aberrations or meaningless bursts of irrational exuberance rather than as persistent realities, because that would mean that the comfortable assumptions that underpin today's economic model have to be questioned. Perpetual growth, the deification of the quick buck based on blissful ignorance of externalities, and individual freedom have to give way to long term planning, intrusive regulation of pollution and emissions, policies to reduce demand and care for the commons.

And that cannot be promoted, can it? Thus, it's a bubble.

Forbes warns of oil bubble

August 31, 2005

PUBLISHING billionaire Steve Forbes has predicted that soaring oil prices will lead to a crash that could make the hi-tech bust of 2000 "look like a picnic".

Mr Forbes, publisher of Forbes magazine, said the price of oil, which peaked at more than $US70 a barrel on Monday as Hurricane Katrina headed for the US Gulf Coast, was unsustainable.

Is There An Oil 'Bubble'?

By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Could there be an oil "bubble''? Well, yes. (to be fair, the rest of that article explains that, in fact, not really)

The next bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash

There are a number of plausible candidates for the next bubble, but only a few meet all the criteria. (...)

There is one industry that fits the bill: alternative energy, the development of more energy-efficient products, along with viable alternatives to oil, including wind, solar, and geothermal power, along with the use of nuclear energy to produce sustainable oil substitutes, such as liquefied hydrogen from water. Indeed, the next bubble is already being branded.

Beware of a 'green' bubble

Investors have driven up the prices of environmentally friendly stocks, perhaps to unrealistic levels. A better bet might be multinationals that are taking on a greener tint.

In the effort to help the world's environment, investors are finding that it's easy being green. Maybe too easy.

This is not incompetence - this is wilful sabotage of any chance for decent economic and energy policies.

[DemReadingDU]

45. Here ya go - Tiny bubbles

Tiny Bubbles

Tiny bubbles in the wine,
make me happy, make me feel fine,
tiny bubbles make me warm all over
with a feeling that I'm gonna love you 'til the end of time.


So here's to the golden moon,
and here's to the silver sea,
and mostly here's a toast to you and me


Tiny bubbles in the wine,
make me happy, make me feel fine,
tiny bubbles make me warm all over
with a feeling that I'm gonna love you 'til the end of time.


Tiny bubbles in the wine,
make me happy, make me feel fine,
tiny bubbles make me warm all over
with a feeling that I'm gonna love you 'til the end of time.

With a feeling that I'm gonna love you 'til the end of time.



http://www.ziplo.com/bubbles.html

[DemReadingDU]

34. Anatomy of a recession

3/12/08 Anatomy of a recession Todd Harrison
Commentary: Our immediate-gratification mindset's partly to blame

There is a marked difference between economic growth and debt-induced demand. Instead of letting the market take its medicine and enter recession in 2001, the powers that be injected fiscal and monetary drugs to dull the pain and induce stock gains.

The Federal Reserve understands the market is the world's largest thermometer and the driver of a finance-based economy. On the back of the tech bubble, in the aftermath of 9/11, following the invasion of Iraq and into the election, they administered stimulants with hopes that a legitimate expansion would take root.

While government policy set the stage for the underlying imbalances, our immediate-gratification mindset exacerbated them.

Consumers bought goods with no money down and financed those obligations at zero percent.

Many used homes as collateral and flipped into adjustable-rate mortgages at the urging of Alan Greenspan.

Total debt in this country rose to more than 400% of GDP as societal spending habits lost all semblance of consequence.

As Americans raced to keep up with the Dow Joneses, seeds of discontent percolated under the seemingly calm financial surface. All the while, the cumulative imbalances grew as society chased the bigger, better thing.

more...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/anatomy-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7B941EC63B%2D7F1D%2D4651%2DA8F3%2D070BB746B0FA%7D

[ozymandius]

38. Markets are open for bidness.

9:37
Dow 12,213.39 Up 56.58 (0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,262.48 Up 6.72 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,324.72 Up 4.07 (0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 3.573% Down 0.023
NYSE Volume 157,731,703.125
Nasdaq Volume 82,247,468.75

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.8.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.2. It is shaping up to be a flat start as traders take a breather after yesterday's large run. Freddie Mac's (FRE) CEO said this is the worst U.S. housing market in about 100 years, according to CNBC. Oil is down 0.2% to $108.54 per barrel after hitting an all-time high yesterday

08:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures are off their best levels as they point to a muted start to the trading day. A disappointing outlook from WellPoint (WLP) prompted the managed healthcare group to drop 17% on Tuesday. The group is set for another decline today, this time because Humana (HUM) cut its full year 2008 to $4.00 to $4.25 per share, from $5.35 to $5.55 per share. Meanwhile, european markets are trading higher. The FTSE is up 1.7% and the CAC 40 is up 1.6%.

[AnneD]

42. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and Lurkers.....
I have an idea for a movie that I'd like to pitch so here goes.:popcorn:

It start out in a wild western town. This lawless town is full of gambling, thieving, and all manner of corruption. The Mayor of the town is in on all this activity and gets a cut. The poor decent folks can barely afford basic goods because the mayor takes a cut on that too (via shipping and handling charges).

The towns folk hold and election and get a new sheriff. Now he does a lot to clean up the town. He helps guard a new freight company shipment and that allows for competitive prices at the dry goods store. He settles a brewing range war that helps a few small farmers keep their land intact as opposed to them being forced out by the giant cattle ranchers. The fresh (and reasonably priced) produce they harvest was a welcome addition to the town dry goods store. People can do business about town and no longer be fearful. The people are so happy with the sheriff's work that during the next election-they vote him in a mayor thinking that, if he made these noticeable changes as Sheriff, just think what he can do as Mayor, with more power.

Sadly though, he gets caught heading up the stairs to Ms Kitty's private 'dressing room' with a wires money order in his pocket. In a huff of righteous outrage, the ex Mayor and his cronies fire the sheriff and he is driven out of town. The ex Mayor rigs the election and the town resumes it's wild west manners. The small farmers are driven out and the folks that cannot move out are forced to live in poverty.


Nah, you're right. People won't believe it-too far fetched. Never mind.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[saigon68]

43. Nice

I've heard this story before

:-) :-)

[Hugin]

46. Good Morning AnneD...

:hangover:

Oddly enough... There's a video game with a similar plot to the one you've described.

Oddworld's 'Bounty Hunter'.

Only difference is it isn't a trip to Ms. Kitty's which brings down the wrath of the corrupt.


Today's Market Melody (for me) is 'Blue Bayou' by Linda Ronstadt.

"Blue Bayou"

I feel so bad I got a worried mind
I'm so lonesome all the time
Since I left my baby behind
On Blue Bayou

Saving nickles saving dimes
Working til the sun don't shine
Looking forward to happier times
On Blue Bayou

I'm going back someday
Come what may
To Blue Bayou
Where the folks are fine
And the world is mine
On Blue Bayou
Where those fishing boats
With their sails afloat
If I could only see
That familiar sunrise
Through sleepy eyes
How happy I'd be

Gonna see my baby again
Gonna be with some of my friends
Maybe I'll feel better again
On Blue Bayou

Saving nickles saving dimes
Working til the sun don't shine
Looking forward to happier times
On Blue Bayou

I'm going back someday
Come what may
To Blue Bayou
Where the folks are fine
And the world is mine
On Blue Bayou
Where those fishing boats
With their sails afloat
If I could only see
That familiar sunrise
Through sleepy eyes
How happy I'd be

Oh that lover of mine
By my side
The silver moon
And the evening tide
Oh some sweet day
Gonna take away
This hurting inside
Well I'll never be blue
My dreams come true
On Blue Bayou

and YES! I had the ubiquitous poster of Linda Ronstadt when I was a teen. :blush:

[AnneD]

54. Hey...

I always thought she was hot. She had a real womans curves...Jerry blew it!

[Ghost Dog]

57. She's great singing in Spanish

n/t

[Hugin]

58. He's not the only one...

"In the mid-1980s, Ronstadt was engaged ("ring on the finger and all") to Star Wars director George Lucas"

If I were to "Spitzer Out", I'd like to think it'd be over someone like Ronstadt.

But, my S.O. and I have come to an agreement on such things... My SO is fully aware that ONE is all I care
to deal with... and the feeling is mutual. :D



Edit: Added bio link... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Ronstadt She's also quite the firebrand when it
comes to politics. grrrowl!

[Ghost Dog]

61. Here ya go / Toma ya:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB-V95tXdsQ&feature=related

Edit: And, no, that's not Pedro Almodovar!

[Hugin]

63. Muchas gracias, Ghost Dog.

:7


:blush:

[Ghost Dog]

65. Me hizo llorar, otra vez.

:cry:

[Hugin]

68. Anímate, mi amigo.

Todo termina bien. ;)


(And, that about does it for my Espanol! :) )

[Ghost Dog]

73. ¡Muy bien!

:hi:

[Demeter]

77. Espero que si'!

[Ghost Dog]

47. And what happens to poor Ms Kitty?

:P

[Hugin]

48. From what I understand she enters a convent...

Where since she doesn't quite fit in, she's then sent to teach music to the family of a
widower Austrian Naval Officer and ultimately they flee across the Alps to avoid Fascist Tyranny.

That's my guess. :D

[Demeter]

78. Are We Daisy-Chaining Old Plots Here?

:rofl:

[Hugin]

81. As, there's only 14 scripts in Hollywood...

We were stitching some together. ;)


Man, I'm glad the Writer's strike is over. *whew*

Now, if somebody could fix "The Plot" they use for the made for SciFi Network Movies. (Uh, as in having
more than one and cut/pasting in changes like "Giant Ants" for "Blood Thirsty Bats". All would be well
with the World. :o )

[Ghost Dog]

94. Well, the stuff about 'young boys' is a relativey new angle, don't you reckon?

-- at least, in 'Westeren' culture, since, like, Greco/Roman times...?

Um. I think I'll leave that 'Western' typo where it is.

[AnneD]

49. She has to move out of town.....

those sorta crooks like boys, generally young ones or underage girls. Ms Kitty ended up marrying a territorial Senator and is now the social toast of DC.;)

Prag.... tsk tsk, everyone know Ms Kitty, while having a parlour pianne, couldn't carry a tune in a bucket.

[Hugin]

52. She didn't make a very good nun, either.

:7

[AnneD]

56. Actually...

she'd have made a good nun-sympathetic, understanding, and a good listener-like a geisha.

And she sure wouldn't have been interested in the pleasures of the flesh. Take it from a Nurse. I've seen more wankers than Linda Lovelace and at this point-it doesn't do much for me. It's my gynecologist/archaeologist theory of husband selection. I'd never want to marry a gyno because he saw it all day at work and it might get boring at home. An archaeologist however would be a good choice-long stretches in remote places and the older I got the more interested he would be in me. Just my $0.02.

[Ghost Dog]

70. That covers it nicely. Shame it had to be DC, though,

when the world could be your oyster (with apologies to vegetarians, like my partner).

[InkAddict]

69. I would have supposed that Ms. Kitty would have diversified

her businesses, i.e., private weekend cabins with jacuzzis in the hills, wombs for hire back East, adoption agencies, specialized medical services, etc....

The return of "righteousness" in this town probably didn't have a global effect either. Human nature being what it is, she probably just mosied on down to the next stagecoach stop-over and asked the saloonkeeper if he'd like to be partners.

I think in her older years, she likely hired one of "Jett Rink's" subsidiaries back in Chicago to manipulate the mundane fiduciary duties, taxes, markets, legislators, etc...

[antigop]

50. FORTUNE: Daily Briefing: Carlyle "working tirelessly" to help fund

http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/03/12/carlyle-working-tirelessly-to-help-fund/

Carlyle Group is looking after its own hide. The private equity group issued a statement late Tuesday distancing itself from its Amsterdam-listed mortgage investment fund Carlyle Capital, which has missed margin calls and is in danger of being liquidated by its lenders. Carlyle Group, run by heavy hitters such as David Rubenstein, reminds readers that it and Carlyle Capital are “separate legal and business entities,” in spite of Carlyle Group’s role as investment adviser to the fund. Carlyle Group adds that the $150 million line of credit the private equity group served up to the fund back in August came from Carlyle’s partners, not its investors or investment funds.

[TrogL]

51. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-01-30 Wednesday, January 30 1.00644 USD
2008-01-31 Thursday, January 31 0.998203 USD
2008-02-01 Friday, February 1 1.00614 USD
2008-02-04 Monday, February 4 1.00735 USD
2008-02-05 Tuesday, February 5 0.995718 USD
2008-02-06 Wednesday, February 6 0.997705 USD
2008-02-07 Thursday, February 7 0.988631 USD
2008-02-08 Friday, February 8 1.0006 USD
2008-02-11 Monday, February 11 0.998203 USD
2008-02-12 Tuesday, February 12 1.00371 USD
2008-02-13 Wednesday, February 13 1.0008 USD
2008-02-14 Thursday, February 14 1.00331 USD
2008-02-15 Friday, February 15 0.998702 USD
2008-02-18 Monday, February 18 0.998702 USD
2008-02-19 Tuesday, February 19 0.984349 USD
2008-02-20 Wednesday, February 20 0.981547 USD
2008-02-21 Thursday, February 21 0.991768 USD
2008-02-22 Friday, February 22 0.984737 USD
2008-02-25 Monday, February 25 1.0018 USD
2008-02-26 Tuesday, February 26 1.0141 USD
2008-02-27 Wednesday, February 27 1.02291 USD
2008-02-28 Thursday, February 28 1.02912 USD
2008-02-29 Friday, February 29 1.02082 USD
2008-03-03 Monday, March 3 1.01348 USD
2008-03-04 Tuesday, March 4 1.00462 USD
2008-03-05 Wednesday, March 5 1.01041 USD
2008-03-06 Thursday, March 6 1.01554 USD
2008-03-07 Friday, March 7 1.00847 USD
2008-03-10 Monday, March 10 1.00251 USD
2008-03-11 Tuesday, March 11 1.00472 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0120 1.0127 1.0117 1.0117 +0.0048 +0.48% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0133 1.0133 1.0120 1.0120 +0.0051 +0.51% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0105 1.0105 1.0100 1.0100 +0.0050 +0.50% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0077 1.0077 1.0077 1.0035 +0.0049 +0.49% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0148 1.0148 1.0148 1.0018 +0.0048 +0.48% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0130        1.0130 1.0006 +0.0048 +0.48% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9994 +0.0048 +0.48% 

 

(Note: something's really messed up with the website below. Most numbers are missing, others have changed. I'll fix it next week.)

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market            Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
ACD.H08 Mar 2008  0.9187  0.9187  0.9187  0.9187  +0.0038  +0.44%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H08.E Mar 2008 0.76360 0.76660 0.76360 0.76660 +0.00225 +0.30%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H08.E Mar 2008 158.230 158.560 158.230 158.410 +0.185   +0.11%    
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H08.E Mar 2008 1.54720 1.55000 1.54440 1.54850 +0.01785 +1.21%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the narrow trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that June may continue to correct more in time than price. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.21 would confirm that a double top with December's high has been posted. Closes above February's high crossing at 102.75 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during March. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 102.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at 102.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.21. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 99.95.

Analysis

(written before I updated the numbers)

Sorry I've been missing. Chaos at home. Chaos at work. I'm on tour this weekend, leaving tomorrow so I'll be posting from the road if at all.

As if I didn't have enough problems, now I have to worry about my mortgage renewal. Another LBN thread talks about banks going after regular mortgage holders, which pisses me off no end. I made a point of raising the 10% down to get a proper mortgage, worked with a lender that I knew was conservative in their lending practices (used to work there, so I know) so now the rest of the banks are letting their sub-primers walk away scott free and I pay the bill because ALL the rates go up, including my lenders'. Gee thanks.

I noted yesterday's injection of US bonds (or whatever the fuck it was) that drove the markets manic (gee, I'm on medication for that). Today I'm expecting more of the same, or alternatively buyers' remorse (which is why I don't own a vacation condominium shack in Quebec).

Regardless, the graphs are messed up, telling me the loonie and greenback are fighting again (like my users) so I'd better go see what's up with that.

(after updating the numbers and spanking a few users ("mmmmmmmmm...spanking"))

OK, so the market's doing a "wait and see" on the loonie. It's drifting with the greenback slightly above par. I don't see what their problem is. The Liberals have had every opportunity to crash the Government and can't be bothered ('cause they know they can't win with the current leader), they've announced a huge new airport for cash cow Fort McMurray and summer (tourist) season is coming.

IDGI :shrug:

[Ghost Dog]

67. So, what's the market like for shacks and acres/hectares in Quebec right now?

[TrogL]

122. They wanted me to pay about $45,000 for the timeshare

Which I would theoretically get to use two weeks of the year, except it would be best to schedule those two weeks in off-times, so the other owners could rent it out during peak skiing season and I'd be part of that, but I'd have to put up my share of the condo fees and repairs and I checked on the actual location and it looked like it was on the side of a cliff. They gave me a hassle about it, but I pointed out that I'd changed to words on the contract ("will" to "may") and they'd initialled it and their lawyers got involved and found out they didn't have a case and people got fired and I walked away without spending a penny.

A lesson well learned.

[TrogL]

71. More blather

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Is_the_Fed_Trying_to_1205271457728.html (4th paragraph)

The Canadian dollar on the other hand had good reasons to rally. Not only did oil prices rise to another record high, but the Canadian trade surplus increased more than expected as record oil prices offset a 9.9 percent drop in automobile shipments last month.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAN1154756120080312?sp=true

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level since last week versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday against the backdrop of lofty commodity prices and a rally in equity markets overseas.

Canadian bond prices, with no domestic data to consider, rebounded as recent central bank efforts to boost liquidity were not expected to halt rate-cutting campaigns.

...

"The market, having digested Fed measures from yesterday, decided that while they do go some way to addressing the issue in the banking system, they don't so much change the longer term economic outlook," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.

"So the combination of a falling (U.S.) dollar and rallying equities is positive for the Canadian dollar as the market tends to treat equity prices as a proxy for risk appetite and the Canadian dollar is more closely correlated with equities and risk appetite."

[Ghost Dog]

59. More loonies here:

Dow 12,259.14 Up 102.33 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,273.76 Up 18.00 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,328.52 Up 7.87 (0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 3.5710% Down 0.0250
NYSE Volume 1,647,197,250
Nasdaq Volume 769,245,120

11:30 am : The stock market extends its gains. Only the telecom (-1.2%) and utilities (+0.4%) sectors failed to participate in the recent surge.

Financials (+2.1%) are leading the way for the second straight session. The thrifts & mortgages group (+3.3%) is posting the largest advance after gaining more than 10% yesterday. On a related note, Freddie Mac (FRE 21.47, +1.31) CFO Piszel said the company's 2008 results should be better than 2007 by a "good margin" according to Reuters.DJ30 +115.93 NASDAQ +22.73 SP500 +9.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 998/1721/731 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1103/1906/521 mln

11:00 am : The major indices set new session highs. Eight of the ten sectors are now posting a gain. The buying interest is being led by industrials (+0.9%) and financials (+0.8%). Energy (-1.2%) is now the main laggard due to a retreat in crude prices.

Crude oil is down 1.1% to $107.58 on the larger than expected inventory build that was reported at 10:30 ET.DJ30 +79.87 NASDAQ +13.98 SP500 +5.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1137/1469/553 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1315/1627/402 mln

10:30 am : The major indices are fluctuating near the unchanged mark. Telecom (-1.1%) has taken over the main laggard position as financials (-0.3%) recovers some of its losses.

Just hitting the wires, crude inventories rose by a larger than expected 6.18 million barrels. Analysts expected inventories to increase by 1.68 million barrels. Crude was trading up 0.2% to $108.94 a barrel just prior to the release.DJ30 +17.91 NASDAQ -2.89 SP500 -1.34 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1381/1129/359 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1542/1335/271 mln

10:00 am : The major indices pullback from opening levels and are now trading in mixed fashion. Eight of the ten sectors are trending lower. There is some relative weakness among yesterday's leaders, including financials (-0.7%).

The dollar is getting clipped, down 0.94% against a basket of currencies. The euro is up 1.00% against the dollar. The yen is up 0.7%.DJ30 +12.38 NASDAQ -2.11 SP500 -0.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1353/1034/206 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1485/1283/160 mln

09:35 am : The major indices open on a slightly higher note. Yesterday, stocks posted their largest one day percent gain since 2003 on the announcement of the Fed's plan to improve liquidity.

It has been a slow news day, although there are a few headlines of note.

Caterpillar (CAT 74.12, +1.51) is a standout after the company reaffirmed its 2008 profit guidance and gave a better than expected long term outlook.

After dropping 17% yesterday, the managed healthcare group (-5.8%) is again getting clipped. Humana (HUM 35.46, -11.92) cut its full year 2008 profit forecast to between $4.00 and $4.25 per share, from $5.25 to $5.55 per share. Yesterday, WellPoint (WLP 45.29, -1.97) spurred the selling pressure after it lowered its earnings expectations.DJ30 +56.26 NASDAQ +5.80 SP500 +4.26

[AnneD]

60. Welfare for the RIch.......

Hear what Jim Rogers has to say about the Feds latest deal....This is why I like this guy.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=682734828&play=1

[Ghost Dog]

64. Good one, thanks (for us 'overseas') AnneD. A straight talking guy

and he's mostly right, isn't he.

Right, too, in his position, to be in Singapore at this time.

I wonder what's his take on "socialism for the poor". ;-)

[AnneD]

72. I get the sense....

he is for the betterment of mankind type of person. He is well traveled worldwide (something besides the tourist cities). That tends to broaden your thinking.

I have been pleasantly surprised at the number of well to do folks here that have been upset at what is going on and are speaking out (many with their check books). It is not a crime to make money but it is a crime not to be concerned about those that are not so fortunate.

Glad you like Jim. I saw him on Wall Street Journal Week almost 2 years ago. I was so impressed with his honesty and thinking. When you watch enough of these shows-you can figure out whose real and whose full of shit. Oh, the CEO of CountryWide Mortgage Manzilo-full of shit all the way up to his tailored shirt collar.

[Ghost Dog]

75. "It's good for me and I don't approve"

Yeah.

Edit: "No country for old men" either (recently read the book (highly recommended) - yet to see the film).

[antigop]

95. "I'd get rid of the Federal Reserve and then resign". Thanks

"Why do we need to bail out these guys now?"

"Where do these guys shop?"

Thanks for that.

[Demeter]

96. That Was A Relief to Hear Plain Unvarnished Truth--and Enlightening!

What say we all band together, buy a small town in a farmbelt, and build a refurge from this madness?

[Ghost Dog]

100. .. Waiting to hear from Trogl re. Quebec

(We heard what he had to say about British Columbia coast).

You've seen where I've chosen to, quietly, hopefully, diplomatically, live.

Ed: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2994887#2998225

[Hugin]

102. We could call it....

Mariah!


Across the vast wide prairie
where tall grain meets the sun,
wagon trains carried settlers
on journeys first begun

The wind was called Mariah
as it sang its old sweet song,
buffalo grazed, prairie dogs played,
sod houses there belonged

Sunburned faces worked the land
to make large plats their own,
with horse teams for the plowing,
they cared no more to roam

No fence lines then were present,
all lands were open, free,
and men could choose their labor
out on the lone prairie

The songs sang of their coming,
and sometimes why they’d go,
even at their gravesites,
hymns sung sweet and low

Cowboys herded cattle,
farmers sowed the wheat,
all men worked together
insuring food to eat

Prairie fires were to be feared
as the wind whipped up a blaze,
settlers scurried here and there
to douse it tho’ half crazed

Children grew up hardy
and passed the time in play
until they fit a saddle,
their chores began that day

For the song of prairie life
was passed down thru’ the ages,
each one pulled their weight in work,
as seasons changed in stages

Songs of hardships still are sung
tho’ times have changed today,
farmers barely can survive
with government in the way

The cattlemen raised fences
God never meant to see,
cutting off green pastures
out on the vast prairie

But the song will thus continue
in generations to come,
the wind will carry songs of old
as distant combines hum

For it’s the will of the people
to sing their song so free,
listen close and you shall hear
THE SONG OF LIBERTY…

:woohoo:

[Ghost Dog]

103. Sod Houses, Yeah.

¿Has anyone here read Jonathan Raban?

Or is he considered to be yet another effete Brit, over there?

http://www.nybooks.com/authors/231

[UpInArms]

74. US retail sales tumble at fastest pace in at least 5 years in Feb-SpendingPulse

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1260761820080312

NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell at the fastest pace in at least five years and could tip an already fragile economy into recession, according to a private report released on Wednesday.

Retail sales tumbled 1.1 percent last month, compared with a 0.2 percent gain in January, said SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors, an arm of MasterCard Worldwide (MA.N: Quote, Profile, Research). The report excludes auto sales.

"It's definitely the biggest drop in our history," said Kamalesh Rao, director of economic research at MasterCard Advisors. SpendingPulse's retail data series started in 2003.

The drop in retail sales may be a signal that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has finally buckled under the weight of a housing bust, a weakening job market and soaring food and energy prices.

"This is reflecting what is happening in the labor market. We have been seeing a souring in spending in the past couple of months," he said.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

76. She's turning,

now, perhaps. Definitely well screwed:

Dow 12,226.66 Up 69.85 (0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,272.09 Up 16.33 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,323.88 Up 3.23 (0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 3.5490% Down 0.0470
NYSE Volume 2,339,687,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,100,349,620

Advances & Declines
NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 1,819 (56%) 1,674 (57%)
Declines 1,357 (42%) 1,141 (39%)
Unchanged 62 (2%) 123 (4%)
Up Vol* 1,277 (59%) 743 (72%)
Down Vol* 858 (40%) 283 (27%)
Unch. Vol* 16 (1%) 5 (0%)
New Hi's 27 41
New Lo's 85 169
*in millions

Most Actives
NYSE LAST CHANGE
C 22.19 Up 3.26%
TMA 3.22 Up 106.41%
GE 34.28 Up 2.63%
WM 12.54 Up 5.56%
S 6.08 Down 1.49%
Nasdaq LAST CHANGE
QQQQ 43.24 Up 0.95%
MSFT 29.29 Up 0.03%
INTC 21.25 Up 0.24%
CSCO 25.47 Up 1.27%
ORCL 20.07 Up 2.86%

12:30 pm : The stock market remains in the green, but continues to drift lower as the financial sector (+0.6%) gives up the leadership position.

Meanwhile crude has rallied to an all-time intraday high despite the larger than expected inventory build. Crude hit $109.85 per barrel, before easing a bit to its current level of $109.70.

The energy sector (-0.7%) is not catching much of a bid as crude spikes.DJ30 +74.33 NASDAQ +14.38 SP500 +3.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1157/1619/978 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1343/1710/693 mln

[AnneD]

79. Looks like the

Spitzer Rally is over.

[Ghost Dog]

83. On a more positive note, let me call your attention to this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=228&topic_id=38818&mesg_id=38831

--> observe, somewhat, somehow, also here: http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.cfm

[Roland99]

87. 3:02pm - Looking pretty flat out there as oil oozes to near $110/bbl

Dow 12,164.22 +7.41
Nasdaq 2,265.39 +9.63
S&P 500 1,317.20 -3.45
10 YR 3.48% -0.11
Oil $109.95 $1.20
Gold $980.70 $4.70

[AnneD]

93. Flatter than...

Twiggy's bikini.

[AnneD]

91. Blackstone co-founder made $4.78B in 2007

NEW YORK - Stephen Schwarzman is Wall Street's $4.78 billion man.

That's how much money the co-founder of private equity shop Blackstone Group LP made in compensation for 2007, the year he brought the firm public, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. His payday was almost as much as the $7.47 billion profit that international investment bank Morgan Stanley made that year.

Schwarzman — who earlier this week announced a $100 million personal donation to the New York Public Library — made $175,000 in salary but took no bonus in 2007, according to the filing. The Blackstone chairman and chief executive received $179,482 in other compensation, which includes use of a car and driver.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23591813/

Nice work if you can get it....

[AnneD]

92. High gold prices push consumers to sell

Jewelry and coins are being sold to pay for gas, monthly bills

CHICAGO - A new kind of gold rush is unfolding at jewelry store and pawn shop counters _ featuring not prospectors, but consumers.

White-collar workers, retirees and many others have been digging through jewelry boxes and safety deposit boxes to cash in as gold prices flirt with $1,000 an ounce. Coins, old wedding rings, necklaces given by ex-boyfriends, hand-me-down gold pieces _ everything is fair game when it brings this kind of profit.

Shop owners across the country are marveling about the phenomenon they say began in the latter part of 2007 and accelerated through the winter, reflecting torrid gold demand like none had ever seen. There are even gold parties, where people gather to sell their jewelry.

more...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23576886/

good article but shows what hard times folks are having.....

[CatholicEdHead]

97. You see more Gold ads on TV in the off hours (late night/midday)

In between the tech school ads. There have also been a couple local news stories on this.

[Ghost Dog]

98. Time to sell, then, maybe...

Although my impression is still most people don't have a handle on how bad it's going to get -- and I'm not talking bubbles either.

[ozymandius]

113. Maybe not sell Ghost Dog.

Maybe. (Not intended as advice.) Maybe it's just time to stop buying what they're selling.

[Ghost Dog]

115. Oh, I've been growing my own for long time, now.

... Hope everyone following this thread is/will be OK ...

Thanks.

[Roland99]

99. Closing numbers: Would this count as a sunken chest, AnneD?

Dow 12,110.24 -46.57
Nasdaq 2,243.87 -11.89
S&P 500 1,308.77 -11.88
10 YR 3.48% -0.11
Oil $109.92 $1.17
Gold $980.70 $4.70


:D :D

[Hugin]

101. It's an innie, Roland99.

They're just priming the Markets for a Rate Cut.

[ozymandius]

107. Was that a sucker punch or what? (with blather)

4:10 pm : It appeared the major indices were set to extend yesterday's rally, but the stock market eventually turned as traders decided to take some profits. The S&P 500 finished the day with a significant loss. The Dow and Nasdaq also finished lower, but fared better than the S&P.

Nine of the ten sectors trended lower. Some of the largest gainers on Tuesday saw the steepest declines on Wednesday. Financials gave up 2.1% and energy lost 1.5%. Only industrials finished in the green, thanks to strength from two industry bellwethers.

Caterpillar (CAT 75.25, +2.64) handily outperformed the broader market after the company reaffirmed its 2008 profit guidance and gave a better than expected long term outlook. The company said "We continue to increase capacity and plan to invest about $2.3 billion in capital expenditures this year."

General Electric (GE 33.96, +0.56) also provided a boost to the industrial sector. GE CEO Immelt said revenue should rise at least 10% in 2008, according to the AP.

After dropping 17% yesterday, the managed healthcare group (-2.0%) ran into more selling pressure. Humana (HUM 40.88, -6.50) cut its full year 2008 profit forecast to between $4.00 and $4.25 per share, from $5.25 to $5.55 per share. Yesterday, WellPoint (WLP 44.45, -0.81) spurred the selling pressure after it lowered its earnings expectations.

Airlines got hammered, losing 10.0%. CNBC reported that JP Morgan downgraded its estimates on several carriers.

Crude oil traded in a choppy manner following the release of the government's weekly inventory report. The Department of Energy said crude stockpiles grew by a much larger than expected amount. Despite the seemingly bearish report for crude traders, oil managed to break all-time intraday and closing highs. Crude closed up 1.3% to $110.02 per barrel.

The dollar hit all-time lows, dropping a steep 1.25% against a basket of world currencies. The euro gained 1.26% against the dollar, and the dollar lost 1.35% against the yen.DJ30 -46.57 NASDAQ -11.89 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -1.0% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -11.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1657/1253/2.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1969/1187/1.56 bln

[UpInArms]

109. did you see the drop on the buck??

The dollar hit all-time lows, dropping a steep 1.25% against a basket of world currencies. The euro gained 1.26% against the dollar, and the dollar lost 1.35% against the yen.



:faint:

[Ghost Dog]

111. For Sure. Euro= USD 1.556, GBP 0.767, CHF 1.579 and JPY 158.6 at this time

... What Ozymandias said ...

Percy Bysshe Shelley (1792-1822)

Ozymandias.

I MET a Traveler from an antique land,
Who said, "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is OZYMANDIAS, King of Kings."
Look on my works ye Mighty, and despair!
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that Colossal Wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Ed. (They should employ me as an editor, or at least as a keyboard-cleaner).

[ozymandius]

114. Greenskanke is going to single-handedly torpedo this economy.

Not that it would have to be much of a torpedo after Bush & sycophants with Greenscam did their work.

:bangshead:

[Roland99]

118. Headed for the 60s....

:scared:

[UpInArms]

119. scooching right on through the 70s - man that was quick!

Last trade 72.253 Change -0.045 (-0.06%)

Settle Time 15:09 Open 72.281

Previous Close 76.483 High 72.361

Low 72.189 2008-03-12 21:58:05, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

120. Commodity inflation has always led to depression

While I seriously doubt any sort of return to a gold standard, this article does raise some valid points on inflation.....

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/MostRead/newnews.php?id=6195

As the price of raw materials, food, oil and gold rise relentlessly in tandem, it is time yet again to revisit the history of such events. We start, as usual, with today and move backwards in time to see how nothing happening today is new at all but actually part of a very ancient pattern going back to the beginning of civilization.

Knowing this, we can look forwards. In this case, it is increasingly obvious that commodity markets will hit their peak the same hour that the rulers of the top empires cease playing with their currencies and restore currency values via either instituting the gold standard again or raising interest rates to the roof. Also, we note a common balance point here: the longer the rulers wait to raise rates or restore the gold standard, the more painful it is.

If rates are dropped to 1% below the rate or commodity inflation during commodity inflationary periods, then they have to raise it an extra 3% or more above the rate to fix this. If they delay for years, doing this, it takes a greater rate hike. Up to 20% or they could even wait until the total destruction of the currency reaches infinity while rates are low like in Germany in 1924. In other words, we must look into the befuddled brains of our rulers to guess which choice they will make .

Banks face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit: JPM

Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said in a report late on Friday.

JPMorgan, which sent a default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week.

"A systemic credit crunch is underway, driven primarily by bank writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation as a systemic margin call."

The credit crisis that began about a year ago will likely intensify after Friday's weak February U.S. employment report "that most definitely signals recession," JPMorgan said.

It is hard to digest this news. So I go peddling backwards through history. Then, as we survey this news from the mountain of the Past, we can more clearly see what is causing this and where this will all go. And the solutions are increasingly obvious. Alas.

more....

[UpInArms]

104. Reuters admits - rally was a fake - Short-covering behind US stock market recent gains

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1246416220080312?sp=true

NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - The dramatic rally on Wall Street this week was caused partly by traders who had been betting on declines moving to cover their short positions, another sign investors may see the credit market problems as far from over.

Financial shares led Tuesday's rally, giving Wall Street its biggest gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 index since October 2002, on hopes that credit strains may ease after the Federal Reserve pumped $200 billion into the financial system.

But Wednesday's lack of follow-through was a signal investors were not quite convinced the worst was over for the market as financial company shares resumed their downward trend. The S&P financial index fell 2.1 percent on Wednesday after gaining 7.4 percent on Tuesday.

<snip>

Short-covering is when investors scramble to buy stocks that they had bet would decline in light of a turn to positive developments. Short-sellers seek to make money off of declines by selling borrowed stock in the hope of buying the stock back at a lower price to cover the loan, and pocketing the difference.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

106. .

:thumbsup:

Ed. Or, should that read:

:thumbsdown:

[ozymandius]

108. I am so bitter about this issue.

First, I observe the value of a free marketplace. A free marketplace is defined, to me, as an environment where the "best business model" is allowed to flourish. To buy stock is to buy a stake in that company's future.

But then, I feel that speculation based on borrowing primes the system for failure. It is, in my opinion, abusing the system in ways that monetary investment, the ways that companies raise capital for operation and investment, was never intended.

Shorts eventually get burned. But short selling in this sense is betting on the company to fail. It is predatory in nature and drives away investment that would otherwise benefit the process of raising capital inspired by a business model, plan and performance.

[UpInArms]

110. if I may add to your disgust

that $200 billion borrowed money bailout that just got gobbled up by "short-sellers" and now "profit takers" and the tanking buck is making my head explode.

[ozymandius]

112. Oh yeah!

Good money after bad. Chopper Ben is sure living up to his nickname. How much is that $200 billion worth now since it's been thrown from a chopper window?

[Hugin]

116. ...

There's no need for me to voice my sentiments as they would only echo what you've just said...

It's wrong.

What they've done over the past two days is hand $200 Billion through the Market to their buds. Had nothing
to do with Economics... Had nothing to do with Investment... The move only served to make it look legit.

It's the same old WorldCom/Enron/etc. Modus Operandi... Except, now at what seems to me Light Speed.

and, oh yeah... It bought them a couple more days of hoping a miracle will occur and it'll all blow over
like a bad dream or a bad bit in some cheap stew.

[ozone_man]

121. Short selling is necessary to restore stocks to correct value.

If the FED or other investors try to pump it up, it's only going into the pockets of insiders selling because they know it's overvalued.

Right now stocks are way overvalued due to our artificial economy run on deficit spending. As credit contracts and deficit spending is brought to an end, the stock valuation must drop. All bubbles must pop eventually. Real estate and stock market are bubbles that have to be popped to restore things to their normal state. Gravity is the law. :)

[UpInArms]

105. How Stupid Greedy Bankers Bankupted Birmingham, Alabama

High Finance Backfires on Alabama County

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — In 2002, a banker named Charles E. LeCroy arrived here with a novel pitch to ease taxpayers’ burden. Some Wall Street wizardry, he said, could lighten their load.

Six years on, officials here are still struggling to untangle the financial web that Mr. LeCroy and his fellow bankers spun. Jefferson County is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy after a series of exotic bond deals that the bankers concocted went wrong, and the interest on its debts, rather than shrinking as the bankers had promised, has ballooned like a bad subprime mortgage.

<snip>

During the last few years, Jefferson County entered into a series of complex transactions, called swaps, worth a staggering $5.4 billion. The accusations and recriminations are flying. Talk of Wall Street tricks — and local corruption — has captivated residents and left many wondering how the county will pay its bills.

<snip>

As a managing director at JPMorgan Chase, Mr. LeCroy persuaded the county to convert its debt from fixed interest rates to adjustable rates. He also recommended that the county use interest-rate swaps that he said would protect it if interest rates rose.

Mr. LeCroy, however, is no longer in the bond business. He landed in prison for three months in 2005 in connection with a municipal corruption case in Philadelphia. He has left JPMorgan Chase and declined to comment for this article.

...more...