STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 24, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 362 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2561 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2285 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2246
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 23, 2008

Dow... 12,270.17 +298.98 (+2.50%)
Nasdaq... 2,316.41 +24.14 (+1.05%)
S&P 500... 1,338.60 +28.10 (+2.14%)
Gold future... 883.10 -7.20 (-0.82%)
30-Year Bond 4.18% -0.05 (-1.23%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.43% -0.06 (-1.66%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Why the Current Bull Market in Gold May Surpass the 1970s Bull Episode

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Last week’s WrapUp put forth the case for stagflation and used the U.S. Misery Index (unemployment rate + inflation rate, %) as a measure of stagflation. The inflation rate used in last week’s Misery Index was the headline inflation rate reported by the BLS, which is severely understated due to the government’s current measuring method (click here to read why). However, using John Williams’ data from ShadowStats.com, who recalculates the CPI using the methodologies used in 1980, allows an apples-to-apples comparison of the current time period with that seen in the 1970s.

The 1970s were characterized by high unemployment and high inflation that contributed to gold’s explosive move during that period. Whenever inflation and/or the unemployment rate came down (Misery Index fell), gold sold off.
.....

So what has been the situation with gold and stagflation in the current decade? The answer lies below and it’s not surprising to see why gold has advanced so strongly when looking at the U.S. Misery Index. The index has advanced into the high teens and has displayed a relatively consistent upward trend. Thus, it is unlike the 1970s that saw two advances in the Misery Index instead of a constant upwardly trending line.
......

Today's Market

Today was another day in the markets characterized by emotion price swings and volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underwent a 631.04 price swing from the lows registered near mid-day to the close, with the Dow nearly up 300 points on the day. The markets started off sharply lower after the release of a disappointing earnings report and outlook from Apple Computer after yesterday’s close that affected the markets in early trading.

The markets staged an impressive rally on news that the New York regulators and banks met to discuss plans for raising new capital for the bond insurers. The news catapulted the markets upwards and sent bond insurers MBIA (MBIA) and Ambac (ABK) up 32.56% and 71.89% respectively.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

19. And My Sis Was Trying to Tell Me Yesterday That Gold Already Peaked!

She's into denial, or rather, disbelief, about the state of the economy.

[UpInArms]

38. Feb. gold up $27.90 at $911 an ounce on Nymex

02. Feb. gold up $27.90 at $911 an ounce on Nymex
9:35 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 1 minute ago

[Hugin]

79. Rudy? Is that you?

Quit tying up the lines... Somebody out there may have a legitimate emergency.

[AnneD]

97. He has managed to do something that

no one expected. Now, when I think of 911-I think of Rudy-not Osama.

[Hugin]

99. Sadly yes, and before Osama...

It was a call for help in an emergency to skilled professionals.

How things change.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/19
Briefing Forecast 320K
Market Expects 320K
Prior 301K

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Dec
Briefing Forecast 5.00M
Market Expects 4.95M
Prior 5.00M

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/19
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 4259K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

31. Initial Claims in at 301,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k

33. U.S. continuing jobless claims down 75,000 to 2.67 mln
8:33 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 43 minutes ago

34. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims down 14,000 to 314,750
8:32 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 44 minutes ago

35. Jobless claims fall 1,000 to 301,000
8:31 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 45 minutes ago

[poppysgal]

42. you know your numbers

where are the breadlines? Inquiring minds want to know.

[UpInArms]

53. forming somewhere in the south of France - where it's warm

and the folks know when they're being lied to :)

car's sitting in the driveway warming up - didn't want to start at 15 below zero this a.m.

:hi:

[burf]

65. Good morning UpInArms

That -15 and worse is getting old. They say it'll be above +30 by Sunday here in West Central MN. We'll have a cookout and make it a day at the beach!

[UpInArms]

76. +30 would definitely be a heatwave and picnic weather here

hoping you are staying warm in MN

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

96. Up to 23ºC, down to 18ºC on the island here this season:

Very low energy requirements.

:nyah nyah:

[54anickel]

93. I got tired of waiting and went out and fired up the grill last night....

bought a big ole pile of pork chops on sale the other day and needed to either cook em up or freeze em and the freezer's sort of full. Only way I'll eat them is cooked on the grill so...had a little diggin' out to do.





Well worth the hassle YUMMMMMMMMY!!!!

[burf]

63. Perhaps you might take

a look at the local food shelf. Business is booming in the one near us.

[poppysgal]

66. good time to lose a few pounds

No thank you I will pass. I think I will just use the good old fashioned "push back" diet, from the table and from a steady diet of misinformation from the mainstream media. By the way, our local food bank is doing a thriving business as well.

[Hugin]

67. ...

Welcome to DU and the DU:SMW poppysgal!

:hi:

[poppysgal]

69. thank you

I am glad to be here

[UpInArms]

55. US Dec home resales fall to 10-year low - price falls for 1st time in 40 years

03. U.S. Dec. single-family home resales fall to 10-year low
10:00 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

04. U.S. Dec. existing-home median price down 6% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

05. U.S. Dec. existing-home inventories fall 7% to 3.90M
10:00 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

06. Median single-family price falls for 1st time in 40 years
10:00 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

07. U.S. Dec. existing-home sales weaker than. 4.98M expected
10:00 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

08. U.S. Dec. existing-home sales fall 2.2% to 4.89M
10:00 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

[Roland99]

74. Because that's what happens when the fundamentals of an economy are sound.

:banghead:

[Hugin]

75. ... and what would that 'sound' be exactly?

*THUD*

:crazy:

[Roland99]

84. Not unlike my toilet in the morning

;-)

[DemReadingDU]

77. here is CNN link

Homes see first price drop on record
The median price for a single-family home dropped 1.8 percent to $217,000. Sales of single-family homes plunged by the largest amount in 25 years.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/24/news/economy/housingstart_0124/index.htm?postversion=2008012410

[UpInArms]

70. Crude Inventories report:

01. Natural gas supplies down 155 Bcf in latest week: En. Dept.
10:35 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 3 minutes ago

02. U.S. crude inventories up 2.3 mln barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 7 minutes ago

03. U.S. gasoline inventories up 5 mln barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 7 minutes ago

04. U.S. distillate stocks down 1.3 mln barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 7 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises near $88 in Asian trading

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose in Asian trading Thursday after slipping more than $2 a barrel in the previous session amid concerns that crude inventories in the United States are growing even as the economy and fuel demand are cooling.

Traders were awaiting the release later Thursday of this week's U.S. inventory report by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.

The report is expected to show U.S. oil inventories grew last week by 1.8 million barrels, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 61 cents to $87.60 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midmorning in Singapore.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Exxon guns for all-time profit record

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, is within striking distance of setting an all-time profit record - again.

Analysts are expecting the company to post solid quarterly and full-year earnings next Friday (see correction below) - and if the results top forecasts, Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) could end up reporting the highest profit ever for a U.S. company.

With oil prices having recently crossed the $100 a barrel threshold, it comes as no surprise that Exxon is a whisker away from setting a new milestone.
.....

Exxon is expected to make $39.2 billion for all of 2007, just shy of its previous record of $39.5 billion in 2006, which breaks down to the company earning about $75,000 a minute.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/news/companies/exxon_profits/index.htm?postversion=2008012313

[ozymandius]

7. Lee Raymond will finally get to eat.

Whenever I see an Exxon station - I think of this image. I just cannot bring myself to buy gasoline there.

[JNelson6563]

28. We should make his the face of the industry.

Perfect. :toast:

[54anickel]

94. Reminds me more of this one....

[ozymandius]

4. Deal for economic rescue package closer

WASHINGTON - House Democratic and Republican leaders are looking for imminent agreement with the White House on an emergency package to jolt the economy out of its slump after negotiators on all sides made significant concessions at a late-night bargaining session.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to drop increases in food stamp and unemployment benefits during the Wednesday meeting in exchange for gaining a rebates of at least $300 for each person earning a paycheck, including low-income earners who make too little to pay income taxes.

Families with children would receive an additional $300 per child, subject to an overall cap of perhaps $1,200, according to a senior House aide who outlined the deal on condition of anonymity in advance of formal adoption of the whole package.

Pelosi, D-Calif., and House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, had yet to reach agreement on a package of tax breaks for businesses after estimates showed a tentative business tax agreement could exceed $70 billion, far more than had been expected, the aide and a Democratic lobbyist said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_go_co/economy_stimulus

Word to the wise: a "rebate" is like that scam called a "refund anticipation loan". So Speaker Pelosi has forfeited a guaranteed benefit to those who need food assistance in exchange for a momentarily popular U.S. Treasury check. Imagine the anger when those who received that check figure out that they will not be allowed to keep their "rebate".

[radfringe]

8. like I've been saying the only thing this scam is designed to stimulate

are congress-critter approval numbers in a (s)election year

http://bp2.blogger.com/_9JC0v6ioeoU/Rq8xy6sy0KI/AAAAAAAAA9g/6ppnNmu-34s/s400/Cheney+and+his+defibrillator+-+July+31,+2007.gif

[Demeter]

21. LOL!

That's not all that needs removing!

[JNelson6563]

30. But will the masses see it?

Or will they take their little bribes, go buy more imported stuff at Wallyworld/the mall and be happy little citizens? Of course there are many in such dire straits that it will be like throwing a glass of water on blazing forest fire.

This won't improve the fundamentals so it won't inspire a turn-around or even achieve the illusion of such for very long.

Julie

[radfringe]

54. just need to put a bow on the crap and the masses will buy it

[Hugin]

59. They'll probably spring for some special polish, too!

:rofl:

Nice graphic! Thanks, radfringe. :)

[radfringe]

60. snagged it on the google internets tubes

[Demeter]

20. Nancy's Asking for a Ride in the Tumbril

and I'm more than willing to accommodate her.

[Hugin]

37. So, it turns out one isn't an American if they don't 'earn a paycheck'...

I'll have to check with my copy of the Constitution.

Maybe there's some sort of fractional thing enumerated in there.

[AnneD]

62. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers.
Prag asks a good question. Is one a good American if they don't earn a paycheck. While not specifically noted in the Constitution or the Declaration-it is implied in both. It is implied in the Constitution in that most folks (men folk) that could vote had to be property holder. It's pretty hard to have property without having a source of income as they have stopped giving property away over a century ago. It is implied in the Declaration when Jefferson penned the famous line-life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Everyone knows happiness can only be found when purchasing material goods and you have to earn a paycheck to buy happiness in this society:sarcasm: Hell 2/3 rds of our economy is based on you buying happiness. Get with the program, Bubba. :snap finger::tap foot:

Has anyone else been watching the events unfold in Davos. There seems to be a fly in everyone's truffle soup.....and I don't mean Condi either. And say, what is the point of Condi addressing the group of Economists. Is she Secretary of State or the Treasury? Or is she there to score some new shoes and a purse. Anyway, it seems like everyone is realizing that the jig is up and the world banks can no longer 'coordinate' their respective economies etc....Where has the love gone...tsk tsk. Me thinks the peasants are waking up on top of this.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Hugin]

64. If you stop to think about it the whole 'earn a paycheck' criteria excludes whole classes of people.

House wives/husbands...
Divorced people where one spouse has been given the financial benefits in 'child custody' agreements.
Retired Volunteers...
Volunteers...
Fixed Income Individuals...

I could go on and on.

[AnneD]

80. Haven't you noticed.....

how most of those folks don't have their interests represented, in Congress even?????? It's the Golden Rule-he who has the gold-rules.

We use to have a sense of compassion and justice. If we still did, we would fully fund SCHIP, NOLA would be rebuilt by now, and folks would not go to bed hungry in this country.

I rest my case.:sarcasm:

[kineneb]

139. Add the disabled

they eke out an existence on SSDI or SSI. But, of course, they are not really "people".

[UpInArms]

48. CBSMarketwatch wants opinions on the Re-Bait and Switch!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tell-congress-how-you-would/story.aspx?guid=%7B54A18608%2DA62D%2D4A7B%2D9405%2D8AF81FE0B85D%7D

Tell Congress how you would spend $800 tax rebate

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- As President Bush and congressional leaders move closer to carving out an economic stimulus package, the debate grows louder over how much of a help it will be to consumers. MarketWatch wants to know what you think.

The president has proposed a $145 billion package that would consist of tax rebates and breaks as well as extended unemployment benefits, food-stamp benefits and business-tax relief for investments in new equipment.

On Wednesday, the talks circled around including a follow-up stimulus package that would be activated by such downbeat factors as rising unemployment or a bigger slowdown in job growth. There's also a movement afoot for a second stimulus package later in the year that would create jobs for major infrastructure projects throughout the U.S.

But the initial $145 billion package on the table is one many political leaders would like to see pushed through Congress and to the president's desk by mid-February. Using the 2001 stimulus package as a benchmark, it would mean rebate checks of as much as $800 per taxpayer and $1,600 per household could reach mailboxes by late April or early May.

Here's the question: What will taxpayers do with the money? In 2001, when checks ranged from $300 to $600, most low- and middle-income consumers spent the money on things they didn't really need but wanted -- big-screen TVs, new clothes or a night on the town.

<snip>

Let us know your thoughts by posting them as comments to this story. The form is at the bottom of this page.

...more..

[Hugin]

49. I'm not sure I could construct my feelings on the matter in a civil correspondence...

But, *sigh*, I assume they'll interpret silence as consent.

[UpInArms]

58. just a random reading of those 288 comments already posted

make me think more people are like us than not

:hi:

[Hugin]

61. That is encouraging...

:hi:

[UpInArms]

71. Congress tax rebates could range from $300-$1,200: reports

05. Congress tax rebates could range from $300-$1,200: reports
10:26 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 12 minutes ago

06. Congress reaches tentative deal on tax rebate: report
10:25 AM ET, Jan 24, 2008 - 13 minutes ago

[DemReadingDU]

73. here is CNN link

Stimulus deal struck - reports
Compromise could shift dollars to low-income earners, while denying checks to those earning more than $75,000 a year.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/24/news/economy/stimulus_package/index.htm?postversion=2008012410

[ozymandius]

5. French bank finds $7.14 billion fraud

PARIS - French bank Societe Generale said Thursday it has uncovered a $7.14 billion fraud — one of history's biggest — by a single futures trader who fooled investors and overstepped his authority.

The fraud destabilized a major bank already exposed to the subprime crisis. France's second-largest bank by market value said it would be forced to seek 5.5 billion euros ($8.02 billion) in new capital.

Trading in Societe Generale's shares, which have lost nearly half their value over the past six months, was suspended on the Paris bourse. It was unclear when trading would resume.

The bank said it detected the fraud at its French markets division the weekend of Jan. 19-20. In a statement announcing the discovery, it called the fraud "exceptional in its size and nature."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_bi_ge/france_societe_generale_fraud

[UpInArms]

32. the lone fraudman theory?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/france_societe_generale_fraud

excerpt:

"I'm convinced he acted alone," said Jean-Pierre Mustier, chief executive of the bank's corporate and investment banking, who interviewed the trader when the fraud was uncovered.

The trader was responsible for basic futures hedging on European equity market indices, the company said, making bets on how the markets would perform at a future date.

"Detecting the fraud over the weekend was problematic because world stock markets on Monday and Tuesday fell hugely around the world," said Janine Dow, senior director at Fitch Ratings financial institution group in Paris. "When the positions had to be unwound, the bank did that in a terrible market of falling equities."

"In hindsight, it was this guy's superior knowledge of the control system of every aspect of trading at the bank that allowed him to build up fraudulent positions and hide them," she said.

The fraud appeared to be the largest ever by a single trader. If confirmed, it would far outstrip the Nick Leeson trading scandal in 1995 that bankrupted British bank Barings. Barings collapsed after Leeson, the bank's Singapore general manager of futures trading, lost 860 million pounds — then worth $1.38 billion — on Asian futures markets, wiping out the bank's cash reserves. The company had been in business for more than 230 years.

The Bank of Credit and Commerce International failed after a 1991 scandal that led to claims by depositors and creditors exceeding $10 billion at the time.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

45. Yup, all over the radio news here earlier this morning

[DemReadingDU]

78. Mike Larson: The "Rogue Trader" strikes again

1/24/08 Ah, the "Rogue Trader." The mythical character who manages to rack up gigantic losses somewhere deep in the bowels of a global bank, then tries to hide them, but ultimately is discovered and sacked. It has happened before and it'll happen again.

But the news out of France from Societe Generale today is simply astounding. It looks like some trader in this 30s, who made less than $150,000 a year, managed to rack up $7.2 billion in losses on stock index futures. That wiped out almost two years of pre-tax profit in the firm's investment banking unit.

The news would be almost hilarious ... if it weren't so terrifying. These are the same titans of global finance who are managing credit default swaps with a notional, or face, value of almost $43 trillion (Global GDP, by the way, was just over $48 trillion in 2006). Yet they can't detect one rogue trader's billions of dollars in losses until it's too late? Talk about a confidence builder.


http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/01/rogue-trader-strikes-again.html

[Ghost Dog]

9. Asian Stocks Rise on China's Economic Growth; Banks Lead Gains

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for a second day as China maintained growth of more than 11 percent and U.S. lawmakers said they were close to agreement on an economic stimulus package.

HSBC Holdings Plc paced gains among financial companies after New York regulators met with U.S. banks to consider bailing out bond insurers. Kookmin Bank led an advance in South Korea, where the government asked pension funds to buy more shares. ASX Ltd., the operator of Australia's stock exchange, surged. Asian stocks have recouped more than half of the two-day, 10 percent loss earlier this week.

``There are expectations that China's growth can offset a U.S. slowdown,'' said Mona Chung, who helps manage $2.5 billion at Daiwa Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The more aggressive the measures are that the U.S. introduces, the better.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.6 percent to 140.97 at 3:56 p.m. in Tokyo, adding to yesterday's 4 percent advance. The two-day rally will be the biggest since a similar period ended in October 1998.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.1 percent to 13,092.78. Singapore's Straits Times Index surged 4.5 percent, the region's biggest gain, after China said it will allow its banks to invest in the city-state's stocks and funds. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and China jumped following a report that showed the nation's economy expanded 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

...

In Asia, a measure of banks, insurers and developers jumped 4.6 percent today, the biggest percentage gain among the MSCI benchmark's 10 industry groups. The finance index had tumbled 16 percent in the previous six months as increasing mortgage defaults limited available credit and weighed on earnings.

...

The plunge in global stocks prompted discussions between South Korean government officials and representatives of state- run pension funds on possible measures to support markets, according to a statement by the Ministry of Finance and Economy. Vice Finance Minister Kim Seok Dong said yesterday the government will ask the funds to buy stocks ahead of schedule.

...

Cosco Corp. Singapore Ltd., a unit of China's biggest shipping company, jumped 13 percent to S$4.74, the most since Oct. 1. Singapore Exchange Ltd., which operates the city-state's stock and derivatives markets, surged 12 percent to S$10.32, the most since Sept. 24.

`Great Wall of Money'

China will let its commercial banks invest in Singapore's stocks and funds under the so-called qualified domestic institutional investor, or QDII, program, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said yesterday after markets closed. The nation will ``soon'' sign similar agreements with the U.S., German and Japanese governments, according to the statement, which did not specify a timeline.

``The `Chinese Great Wall of Money' will flow to many parts of the world,'' said Ian Beattie, London-based head of Asian equities at New Star Asset Management, which oversees $1.5 billion. The agreement reinforces his positive view of Singapore, which is among markets that ``will get a disproportionately large share,'' he added.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=awllkY7Zxakc&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

11. Nikkei boosted by Wall St, Tokyo mkt support proposal

TOKYO, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average finished up 2.1 percent on Thursday, buoyed by a Wall Street rebound on a possible rescue for U.S. bond insurers, with proposals to support the Tokyo stock market also giving a boost.

Rises in other Asian stock markets also helped the Nikkei gain, with battered property shares such as Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd (8801.T: Quote, Profile, Research) surging on a wave of short-covering and banks up in the wake of their U.S. cohorts.

Sentiment was buoyed by news that members of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party are debating emergency proposals to help the stock market, including scrapping taxes on dividends and capital gains.

A draft of the proposals included a call for the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates back to zero and return to quantitative easing, in which the banking system is flooded with excess cash. It also said the government should consider establishing a sovereign wealth fund.

Market participants were sceptical.

"If they could carry out these proposals it would be incredible, but I don't think anybody in the market believes they really will. After all they'd lose a lot of tax money, and how would they keep the government going then?" said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing at Jujiya Securities.

"This is positive not for its content but for the message it sends, that the government and Bank of Japan are ready to do something aggressive," said Okamoto.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT10503420080124?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

12. Lawmakers seek steps to lift Tokyo stock market

TOKYO, Jan 24 (Reuters) - A group of ruling party lawmakers urged Japan's government on Thursday to scrap taxes on dividends and capital gains and take other steps to reverse a 30 percent slide in the Tokyo stock market over the past six months.

The whiff of possible action helped the Nikkei average .N225 close 2 percent higher for the day, but market players and economists doubted if all the proposals by the Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers could or even should be implemented.

The group of legislators, including former financial services agency minister Yuji Yamamoto, also called on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to cut interest rates and the government to consider establishing a sovereign wealth fund.

"If they could carry out these proposals it would be incredible, but I don't think anybody in the market believes they really will. After all they'd lose a lot of tax money, and how would they keep the government going then?" said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing at Jujiya Securities.

"This is positive not for its content but for the message it sends, that the government and Bank of Japan are ready to do something aggressive."

The lawmakers also urged financial firms to consider exempting or cutting fees on stock trades to attract retail investors and proposed other tax breaks, including on capital spending and income tax.

The proposals, which were submitted to Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, call for the steps to be in place until the Nikkei recovers to 18,000. It closed at 13,092.78 on Thursday.

Continued... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT8236320080124?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

13. China's economic growth hits 13-year high amid inflation fears

BEIJING (AFP) - China's economy grew at a blistering 11.4 percent pace in 2007, the fastest in 13 years, the government said Thursday, warning more needed to be done to address the rising threat of inflation.

The Asian juggernaut saw a fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth, with inflation at an 11-year high, the National Bureau of Statistics said, admitting that overheating remained a threat.

"The risk of the economy shifting from rapid (growth) to overheating still exists," Xie Fuzhan, the bureau's head, told a briefing in Beijing.

China's economy last year totalled 24.7 trillion yuan, or 3.4 trillion dollars according to year-end exchange rates.

Growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 was 11.2 percent, a slight moderation from 11.5 percent in the third quarter, the bureau added.

Growth in Asia's second-largest economy was boosted by record exports and massive spending on infrastructure.

The bureau confirmed previously released statistics which showed the trade surplus last year soared 47.7 percent to 262.2 billion dollars.

Investment in fixed assets, covering everything from bridges to new equipment in factories, rose 24.8 percent in 2007, the bureau said.

The rapid expansion came despite government efforts to cool the economy, including six interest rate hikes in 2007, amid concerns that inflation was rising to uncomfortable levels.

The statistics bureau said inflation last year had struck 4.8 percent, the steepest increase in 11 years. In December, the consumer price index was up 6.5 percent.

"A sharp increase in a range of daily necessities is causing deep pain to the vast poor majorities of rural population and a large percentage of China's low-income urban population," Sumei Tang, an economist with ratings agency Moody's said in a report on the figures.

"Failure to deal with inflation could incite social and political tensions."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080124/ts_afp/chinaeconomy_080124072749;_ylt=AuLLA_xHLnpbXSjRJsVnIxmmOrgF

[Ghost Dog]

14. Next stop Asia? How an American recession might hit Asia

The Economist Jan 23rd 2008

... As well as hitting exports, America’s troubles could affect Asia through various financial channels. Asia’s exposure to the subprime mess is thought to be much smaller than that of American or European banks. Even so, Chinese bank shares tumbled this week on rumours that they would have to make much bigger write-downs on their holdings of American subprime securities. And if stockmarkets slide further as global investors flee from risky assets, this could dampen business and consumer confidence in the region.

Some Asian economies are more vulnerable than others: Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia have exports to America equivalent to 20% or more of their GDPs, compared with only 8% in China and 2% in India. There are already some ominous signs. Singapore’s exports to America are down by 11% over the past year, while Malaysia’s fell by 16%. Exports to other emerging economies and to the European Union surged, so total exports still grew by 6% in both economies. But that was much slower than at the start of the year, and the worry now is that demand from Europe has started to flag.

The growth in China’s exports to America slowed to only 1% (in yuan terms) in the year to December from over 20% in late 2006. So far the impact on GDP growth has been modest. Figures on China’s fourth-quarter GDP are to be published on Thursday January 24th and most economists expect growth to slow to a still healthy 9-10% this year.

China’s economy would probably still expand by around 8-9% even if export growth dried up. During the 2001 American recession China’s GDP barely slowed. In contrast, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia suffered full-blown recessions. America’s recession this time is likely to be deeper than in 2001 and Asia is now more integrated into the global economy. Doomsters conclude, therefore, that these economies could be hit harder this time.

The main reason to be more optimistic is that domestic demand (consumer spending and investment) is likely to remain strong and governments have more flexibility. Last year, despite a slowdown in America’s imports, most Asian economies grew faster as domestic demand speeded up. Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC, says that those who argue that Asian economies cannot decouple from America are ignoring the fact that they already have. Take Malaysia: exports to America plunged, yet its GDP growth quickened from 5.7% at the end of 2006 to 6.7% in the third quarter of last year.

/... http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10559036

[Demeter]

35. From DailyReckoning.com

The big guns came out on Monday. Mr. Market shot down almost every stock in the entire world.

He would have caused U.S. stocks to crash and burn too...but it was a holiday behind the American lines. U.S. shares never raised their heads.

And then, at dawn on Tuesday, the other side opened up with its big guns. The Fed made a “once in a generation” rate cut – taking it two key rates down 75 basis points each. Now, it’s official. Favored borrowers can get money for substantially less than the rate of consumer price inflation.

After this volley, it was still early morning in the Eastern Standard Time zone. We sat on the edge of our chair waiting to see how Mr. Market would react. Would the rate cuts be enough to stop him? Or would he still do to U.S. stocks what he had already done to those in Japan, India and France – that is to say, roughly what Sherman did to Atlanta?

In the event, the fireworks from the Fed slowed Mr. Market’s advance...but did not stop it completely. The Dow retreated down as much as 400 points...staged a counterattack...and ended up with a 128-point loss.

Which was enough for most commentators to pronounce the Fed’s counteroffensive as a success. We’d call it a draw.

The bigger news is that the forces of deflation – led by Mr. Market – are on the move. They’ve wiped out $5 trillion of value from equity markets all over the world in just the last three weeks.

[Ghost Dog]

15. Gulf tipped to ride wave of soaring prices

Arab Gulf states could invest more than $3,500bn abroad by 2020 as they ride a wave of soaring oil prices, according to new research.

The net foreign wealth of the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council had reached about $1,900bn by 2006, double the level in 2003, with outflows of about $200bn in 2006, said McKinsey, management consultancy, in a report.

But the coming oil windfall will not only dwarf previous investment flows in terms of size, Gulf investors will also become more aggressive as they seek to take over companies, rather than the more traditional approach of quietly investing in stock markets and treasury bonds.

"This is only the second page of the first chapter of the coming of the petro-giants" said Kito de Boer, McKinsey's managing director for the Middle East. "If oil prices remain at a level over $50 a barrel, then this will become a structural shift of global capital flows on a material scale."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080124/bs_ft/fto012320082305201862;_ylt=AsRKBOKYyHVMOHgVHDDGCM72ULEF

[Ghost Dog]

18. note: 1,000bn is also known in the US as 1 trillion.

[Ghost Dog]

10. European stocks surge 5 pct, shrug off SocGen

Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:13am EST
LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - European stocks surged more than 5 percent by midday on Thursday, as hopes of a rescue package for bond insurers helped the broader market shrug off of a huge alleged fraud by a trader at French bank Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research).

SocGen shares fell 3 percent when they started trading after 1105 GMT, but the news had little impact on stock in other banks, with the sector the top weighted gainer on the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index .

The benchmark was up 4.9 percent at 1,324.48 points, on track for its biggest one-day gain since March 2003.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL2462111320080124?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

16. Euro bounces back as rate cut hopes ease

Thu Jan 24, 2008 7:17am EST
LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The euro strengthened against the dollar and yen on Thursday after tough talk on inflation from European Central Bank policymaker Axel Weber dampened expectations of a possible near-term interest rate cut.

The yen retreated on the back of the bounce in the euro and as European stocks extended their rally, after earlier gaining on lingering concerns over the health of the global economy.

"For the time being, the ECB are maintaining a very hawkish line so no signs of any rate cut any time soon," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING.

"You're then left with sharply lower U.S. rates, stable European rates and with equities doing quite well at the moment ... the market is just going to focus on the dollar bearish story."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2439499920080124?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

17. Euro = USD 1.463, GBP 0.748 and CHF 1.595 at this time.

[Ghost Dog]

27. German business confidence rises unexpectedly

German business confidence rebounded unexpectedly this month, highlighting the still-upbeat mood in Europe’s largest economy ahead of the most recent equity market falls.

The surprise rise in the Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index reflected the confidence widespread in German industry, which has so far been hardly affected by the global financial turmoil. “The odds are rising that even a US recession cannot simply derail the German train,” said Andreas Rees of Unicredit in Munich.

/... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9bcce5c4-ca62-11dc-a960-000077b07658.html

[Ghost Dog]

122. European Stocks Rally Most Since 2003; UBS, Axa, Nokia Advance

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks gained the most since 2003 as talks to bail out bond insurers, rising profits at Nokia Oyj and China's economic growth boosted expectations that equity markets will weather a slowdown in the U.S.

UBS AG, the region's biggest bank by assets, and insurer Axa SA jumped more than 8 percent. Nokia, the world's largest mobile-phone maker, surged 15 percent as profit beat analysts' estimates. Societe Generale SA fell after reporting a 4.9 billion-euro ($7.1 billion) trading loss and accusing a trader of fraud.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index surged 5.2 percent to 322.08, its biggest gain since March 2003, the month marking the turning point in a three-year rout after the Internet bubble burst. The index earlier this week extended declines from a 6 1/2-year high on June 1 to more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market, on concern the U.S. will enter a recession.

...

National benchmarks advanced in all of the 18 western European markets today. France's CAC 40 rallied 6 percent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 jumped 4.8 percent, and Germany's DAX advanced 5.9 percent.

The Stoxx 50 added 5.4 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the euro region, rose 6.5 percent.

Stocks extended gains after German business confidence unexpectedly increased. The Ifo research institute's business climate index rose to 103.4 in January from 103. That's higher than the 102.3 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The risk of European companies defaulting on their debt fell today, according to traders of credit-default swaps.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=adgZcNh6E.cU&refer=europe

[Demeter]

22. Just What Happened Yesterday?

300+ in this climate? Who took leave of their senses?

[TalkingDog]

24. My theory yesterday was that somebody is liking trucks:

yesterday:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EDJT&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI&a=v&p=s

5 days:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJT&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI

Somebody sent me a link yesterday, that included the idea that DOW theory suggested transportation as a way to read (or guide) the market.

So, their tinfoil hat theory was that somebody was buying futures to give some bouyancy to the *ahem* deflating market.

I can't say, not knowing enough about any of it. But it seemed interesting to me.

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Hugin]

47. Very interesting.

Certainly worth watching TalkingDog.

[Roland99]

56. There's a shipping index that's hit like 6-month lows the other day.

[Ghost Dog]

25. I refer you to this from yesterday:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3152189#3153178

The FT's Alphaville blog comments:

CDS report: credit market cheered by monoline bailout plan

The perceived riskiness of European corporate debt receded on Thursday as the credit market cautiously welcomed news of a possible monoline bailout plan.

In Europe, the iTraxx Crossover index of mostly junk-rated corporate debt tightened about 34 basis points to 448bp according to UBS prices. This means it now costs €34,000 less than it did on Wednesday to protect €10 million worth of Crossover debt against default over five years.

The rally was driven by reports New York state’s insurance regulator was trying to persuade leading US banks to support the struggling bond insurers. Worries about the sector’s possible collapse — which could trigger systemic problems for the credit markets — sent the Crossover to an all-time high of 530bp on Monday.

Overnight in the US the cost of protecting Ambac and MBIA against default plummeted by over 500 basis points apiece.

“This is the first positive piece of news on the monolines for a very long time…the market seems to believe some sort of deal will be struck, whether it’s this or a different one,” said Andrea Cicione at BNP Paribas.

But he urged caution, stressing that the plan was in the early stages. “Some banks are unwilling to get involved, they would prefer the government to step in,” he said. “We’ve seen similar initiatives fail, like the super SIV plan.”

Geraud Charpin at UBS agreed. “The good news is that the US authorities have shown that they do not want to see a collapse of the monolines. The bad news is that the banks are the ones asked to provide capital, something they do not have in the first place and therefore need to raise elsewhere,” he said in a note.

The FT reported overnight that the banks are being asked to contribute up to $15 billion for a rescue plan.

/... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/24/10438/cds-report-credit-market-cheered-by-monoline-bailout-plan/

[Roland99]

26. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but....

From what I read, there was word of a bond insurer 'bailout' (groups such as AMBAC). That sparked a rise and all the 'shorts' were left scrambling to cover themselves which would also help explain the MASSIVE volume. But, imho, the $15billion 'bailout' is less then a spit in the ocean. Today will be interesting again.

[UpInArms]

33. Bond insurer rescue plan gives hope, problems remain

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL2467411520080124?sp=true

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - A leveraged loan logjam on bank balance sheets, Europe's frozen securitisation market and rising consumer credit risks must be tackled if a plan to bail out ailing U.S. bond insurers is to help end the global credit crunch.

News of the potential insurer rescue boosted the belief that regulators and politicians are acting to stave off the impact of the credit crisis that erupted last summer, putting a floor under plunging sentiment on stock and credit markets.

But more action from policymakers and regulators will be needed for real confidence to return as fundamental problems still threaten the smooth functioning of global financial markets and, a consequence, the world economy.

"I don't think the rest of the market's going to open up quickly. It's going to take time," said Vivek Tawadey, head of credit strategy at BNP Paribas.

"Fundamentally you've still got a severe deterioration in the housing market, which appears to be extending to other asset classes like credit cards, auto loans and the like, that is playing out irrespective."

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

40. From the above FT link:

Banks pressed to bail-out bond insurers
By Ben White, Aline van Duyn and Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: January 23 2008 20:25 | Last updated: January 24 2008 00:45

Leading US banks are under pressure from New York state’s insurance regulator to provide as much as $15bn to support struggling bond insurers, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday night.

Eric Dinallo, New York insurance superintendent, held a two-hour meeting with bank executives on Wednesday and urged them to provide as much as $5bn in initial capital to support the insurers – the largest of which are MBIA and Ambac – and ultimately to commit up to $15bn...

So they're talking about New York State (which has already apparently called in Warren Buffet to contribute to such support, and they're looking for an initial 5bn and eventually 15bn from unnamed banks...

Is this clutching at straws ... Is there something else going on behind the scenes (apart from the usual pumping)?

[Hugin]

43. I agree with you, Roland99.

My question is... Yeah, they may bail them out, but, in a rational world who'd EVER invest in those bond insurers
again?

It would be an incomprehensibly stupid investment... Given how the SCOTUS and the other 'invisible hands' have
stacked the deck against the investors.

But, I guess every village has it's idiot and there are plenty of glazed eyed masochists around. :/

[Roland99]

50. And asshats like Cavuto announcing yesterday that there is no recession.

Well, perhaps not up in his colon where he keeps his head but in the real world.... :eyes: I guess Bill and Jane Investor miraculously got confidence in the market and bought up 2billion shares in the hour or so. IDIOT.

[Hugin]

39. After yesterday and the day before yesterday is there anyone who still buys the myth of the...

'free market' the supply-siders have been hollering for the past 30 years?

Step forward so I may publicly mock you.

[Roland99]

23. Futures looked pretty flat about 15min ago

Markets waiting for tha one piece of bad or good news to pick a direction?

[UpInArms]

29. dollar watch

the ino.com chart is not working - so here is kitco's number

76.07 -0.24

Is the Fed Powerless to Stop a Recession?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Is_the_Fed_Powerless_to_1201106024661.html

On Tuesday the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.5 percent. Yet, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has cut the fed funds rate by 175 basis points since September 2007, its Board of Governors agreed that “broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households.” Voting against the 75 bps rate cut was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Looking ahead, according to futures trading on the Fed Funds rate, traders are fully pricing an additional 25 bps rate cut and as much as 56 percent probability of a 50 bps rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets on January 30.



...more...

Dow Surge Forces Sharp Dollar Losses against Euro - What Happens Next?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Dow_Surge_Forces_Sharp_Dollar_1201120774809.html

The US dollar bounced on an overnight rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, but an incredible reversal in the Dow actually left the dollar lower through late New York currency trading. The Dow seemed headed for another sharply negative stock trading session, with Dow futures down as much as 300 points in pre-open trade. Yet a later reversal provided much-needed relief to downtrodden US stocks and allowed forex traders to sell the greenback across major forex pairs. Such volatile currency movements have left the euro exactly even against the US dollar through time of writing, and continued gains in the Dow and S&P 500 may in fact be enough to sink the dollar lower through the New York session close.

A virtually empty US economic calendar allowed currency traders to focus on developments in domestic stock markets, with sharp volatility in the Dow and S&P 500 forcing similarly choppy price action on the day’s forex trading. Overnight futures had the S&P 500 off a dramatic 50 points, but aggressive bulls came to the rescue in the late NYSE session and forced a substantive recovery. There was seemingly little news flow to cause such surprisingly sharp moves. Yet overall market jitters and investor indecision made for incredibly volatile price action across all major financial markets.

US Treasury Bond yields started the morning session sharply lower on overall recession fears, but the late Dow surge has actually left Treasury yields modestly higher through time of writing. Indeed, the yield on the 30-year US Government Bond fell to all-time lows at 4.13 percent through the early going and currently trade at a much more respectable 4.25 percent. All else remaining equal, the higher Treasury yields should theoretically boost the attractiveness of the dollar and make it gain against major forex counterparts. Yet the underlying themes of market risk sentiment and appetite continue to dominate all currency trading. The dollar now rallies whenever the Dow Jones tumbles and pulls back on any major Dow advances.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

41. Euro = USD 1.467, GBP 0.747 and CHF 1.600 at this time.

[UpInArms]

57. Dollar mostly lower after homes-sales data disappoint

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-mostly-lower-after-homes-sales/story.aspx?guid=%7B2353B528%2D347E%2D48E9%2DAC05%2DC96D48765140%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was down against most major counterparts Thursday, pressured by weaker-than-expected existing-home sales data. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against six other major currencies, was at 75.879, compared with 76.320 late Wednesday. The euro was at $1.4712, up from $1.4630 Wednesday. The British pound sterling was buying $1.9684, up from $1.9552. The dollar was buying 106.84 yen, up from 106.70 yen late Wednesday, as risk aversion faded in line with a firmer opening on Wall Street.

[UpInArms]

68. ino now working - dollar at 75.894

Last trade 75.894 Change -0.414 (-0.54%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 76.329

Previous Close 76.483 High 76.439

Low 75.851 2008-01-24 10:05:52, 30 min delay

52wk High 85.43 52wk High Date 2007-01-26

52wk Low 74.484 52wk Low Date 2007-11-23

[DemReadingDU]

116. dollar diving

Low 75.622 2008-01-24 16:49:11

52wk Low 74.484 52wk Low Date 2007-11-23


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w

[UpInArms]

34. Assured Guaranty (Pirate of the Carribean) : $302.9 mln loss on derivatives in Q4

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG4075820080124

Jan 24 (Reuters) - Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) reported a fourth-quarter mark-to-market loss on derivatives of $302.9 million, or $4.39 a share, mainly due to a market value decline in the U.S. residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities markets.

The Bermuda-based provider of credit-enhancement products also reported loss and loss adjustment expenses of $18.1 million for the fourth quarter as its home equity line of credit exposures continued to face rising delinquencies.

Assured Guaranty said the remainder of its portfolio, including pooled corporate and U.S. subprime residential mortgage-backed securities exposures, was performing in line with expectations.

...more...

[AnneD]

46. Hhmmmmm....

'credit-inhancement products'. Sorta like Enzyte? Does it make the credit look bigger or does it just look better. Inquiring minds want to know....



Someone que Bob please......

[Hugin]

51. Smilin' Bob... Smilin' Bob Enzyte... You have a call on line 3...

:lol:

[Roland99]

52. *Bermuda-based*

Nah, there's no hiding of profits by big business. And we need more tax cuts in 5 minutes, Scotty, or we're all dead!

[Demeter]

121. The Dilithium Crystals Are Completely Drained, Captain!

I canna boil a cuppa tay with 'em!

[UpInArms]

36. Ford loss narrows to $2.8B in 4Q - buyout offered to 54,000 workers

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_ford

DEARBORN, Mich. - Ford Motor Co. narrowed its losses in the fourth quarter and for all of 2007 amid continued weakness in North America and said Thursday the outlook for U.S. sales in 2008 remains grim.

Ford President and Chief Executive Alan Mulally also said the company will be adjusting production and making further cost reductions in North America, including a new round of buyouts for its 54,000 U.S. hourly workers.

Details of the buyout program were expected later Thursday.

Ford lost $2.8 billion, or $1.30 per share in the fourth quarter, narrower than a loss of $5.6 billion, or $2.98 per share, in 2006. The full-year loss of $2.7 billion, or $1.35 per share, was significantly better than 2006, when Ford lost $12.6 billion, or $6.72 per share.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. 9:46 EST and it Yippiee Tyiiieeee Yyy-AAA!

Dow 12,321.06 50.89 (0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,342.73 26.32 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,347.61 9.01 (0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 3.568% 0.142

NYSE Volume 473,388,281.25
Nasdaq Volume 226,924,984.375

09:40 am : Stocks open modestly higher following yesterday's impressive turnaround when the S&P 500 gained 5.4% from its intraday low. Traders will be looking for a follow-through in order to gain confidence that yesterday's move was more than a short-covering rally.

Helping sentiment this session is continued optimism that there will be a bond insurer bailout plan. Weekly jobless claims came in at 301,000, lower than the expected reading of 320,000. This is lower than the typical recessionary levels of over 450,000 and should be a positive for the stock market and economic outlook.

December existing home sales is set for release at the top of the hour. Briefing.com expects sales to hold steady at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.00 million. DJ30 +7.89 NASDAQ +11.37 SP500 +2.96

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.5.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.8. A positive start is still expected. Earnings reports results have been mixed, but have not been bad.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

72. "Bond insurer bailout?"

Ah, the free market at work...

:banghead:

[AnneD]

81. Billionaire sees downturn as end of era

DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — Billionaire George Soros called Wednesday for a massive injection of regulation and oversight of financial markets whose excessive freedoms have caused "not a normal crisis but the end of an era."

The Hungarian-born financier and philanthropist commanded center stage at the World Economic Forum with a dire analysis of recent days' market turmoil and a call for the creation of a "new sheriff" for global finance — details to be worked out later.

It was a stark and jarring message coming from one of the richest businessmen in the world — albeit one who is no stranger to controversy and politics and has seemed to pride himself on being a maverick.


'Wrong paradigm'
"Authorities are working with the wrong paradigm," Soros told journalists at the annual gathering of the world's political, business and academic elite in the Swiss ski resort.

Also Wednesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a nod to the anxiety that has enveloped the World Economic Forum, said the U.S. economy was resilient and would remain an "engine of growth."

<snip> more...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5480528.html

This is a very interesting read from a person that is seldom heard from and frequently demonized in our media.

[radfringe]

82. hopefully on Jan 20, 2009

we can all say goodbye to the biggest "ERROR"

[Roland99]

85. We just al need to buy new shoes with our new checks

which I won't get one apparently. wheeee.

[Hugin]

89. Ah, we'd just blow it all on 'bread and circuses' anyway, Roland99.

:eyes:

[Hugin]

86. Bingo!

Dang, George... Hit the nail on the head.

:yourock:

I just knew there were some competent people wandering around in Davos!

Someone who'd be there for more than a new pair of shoes.

[AnneD]

90. Who are you going to believe....

an academic economist that has never held a job in his life, a politician that belongs in the lucky genes club, or a billionaire (with a conscious) that made his own.

:think:

[specimenfred1984]

88. That's for sure. A poster on another board said that everything repug is:

"A propaganda construct based on a false premise". Very true.

[AnneD]

105. You caught that too....

George Soros is the Rethug whipping boy because he doesn't give them his money for their campaigns (and gave large sums to defeat George W). They have such a hard time understanding that there are some wealthy folk that believe in sharing their good fortune with folks that are not related or travel in their social circles. And there is some envy there I am sure. I don't know but I bet George made his own by beating them at their own game. He has supported democracy movements in Poland, civil rights in Czechoslovakia, and democracy in Russia. And isn't that what the Rethugs are professing to do. I don't see horns or cloven hoofs-so where's the beef.

[AnneD]

83. Fed chief still playing catch-up

<snip>
Showing disappointment
Having failed to recognize the country's deteriorating financial condition, the Fed, the administration and Congress now hope to leap ahead of the downturn and divert it, like Superman racing before a runaway locomotive.

The capes don't quite fit.

<snip>

Delayed reactions
At the end of last summer, Bernanke remained fixated on his inflation models, deaf to the crumbling of the mortgage market. By the time the Fed finally gave a half-point cut, the train had left the station. Bernanke and the boys still haven't caught up.

<snip>
Blinks and winks
Bernanke, the academic who favored inflation modeling and an analytical approach to monetary policy, increasingly finds himself in the role of political toadie. When the market wants a cut, he blinks. When the administration wants tax cuts, he winks.

<snip>

The train hurtles on with Bernanke running after it, no cape in sight.


http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/5476968.html

A good read for economic newbies.

[End Of The Road]

87. Probably a stoopid question about "housing crisis"...

Rather than foreclose on owners whose payments have gone up to something they can no longer afford, why don't mortgage companies offer some sort of "easy" refinance to a lower payment on a 45-year fixed?

This occurred to me the other night, and you guys are the smartest money folks I know, so I thought I'd ask you.

Nobody wants a 45-year note, I know, but it would buy time and keep alot of people from having to put their home up for sale. Wouldn't that help keep value up? The lenders wouldn't have so many losses on the books. The option would not be available to buyers, just to existing owners who might otherwise be foreclosed on.

Sorry if this has been asked before. I've been spending WAY too much time at GD and GD-P (that's one to stay away from, BTW).

[UpInArms]

91. the originators of those loans do not have them on their books

any longer - they have all been bundled and cut up and sold and leveraged and split and bet on and sold and packaged again and again.

The servicers of the loans are not in the business of making loans.

Those borrowers can't go back to somewhere that no longer exists.

Hope that clears it up for you.

Welcome to the SMW - come back anytime :hi:

[Hugin]

92. There are no stoopid questions about the 'housing crisis'...

You are correct... A 45 year fixed loan would help out the borrower. BUT... The borrower isn't who the markets are
worried about, they're worried about all of those ANGRY FIERCE German Pension funds they sold those lipstick smeared
dissected sliced-&-diced junk bonds they assembled with promises of 20% returns.

In other words... They're worried about their own skins. I'd imagine it keeps them up nights.

[AnneD]

95. Dear end of the road....

your idea is a very good one, brilliant even...but you assume that these folks are not greedy. Bless your sweet little naive heart.

This is where capitalism, in it's rawest worst form fails. Sadly, many in this country have a Calvinistic bend to their Christianity and assume it is a reflection on the homeowners moral character that they are now in the mess they are in. And, because they are the ones that write history, the blame of the sub prime disaster will fall on to the homeowners-even though bank deregulation and deceptive practices are of equal blame.

The banks have packaged and sold off this debt to others as an attractive investment and it is not their problem. Investors don't have the same caviler attitude as the bankers, they want the money (interest) up front. Eventually, they will realize that they made a bad investment and if they want to salvage the deal they need to rewrite the terms and take less profit than the had hope. It is an all or nothing deal only if they chose.

Welcome to the thread. :hi:

[Hugin]

98. Well said, AnneD.

:)

[End Of The Road]

102. Thanks UIA, Prag & AnneD

OK, I've been cogitating on your replies for awhile, and I think I understand it a little better.

My big goof, I think, was in not keeping the economic issues separate from the social ones. I thought that keeping money coming into the system, by helping people stay in their homes, would ameliorate the crisis. Socially, yes, but economically no, because all the mortgage-backed-security type deals that have already been made aren't worth nearly what they were touted, and are being dumped.

Am I close??

[Hugin]

104. It's never a 'goof' to feel compassion...

Sounds like you're on to it now.

Those mortgage-backed-securities aren't the only part of the so-called credit crisis. They are one of the
corner stones, but, there are problems all over the financial sector. Unsecured-credit (like Credit Card Debt), Leveraged
corporate mergers, and of course the devaluation of the Dollar.

The Corporate Media would like us to believe it's all to be blamed on a limited number of Sub-prime loans, but,
it goes way beyond.

[AnneD]

107. You're as bright ....

as a shiny new penny.

Economic issues and Social Issues go hand in hand. The folks that think they don't are the goofs.

The best books on any economist reading list should be Proverbs and the Gospels of the Bible. We are clearly mandated to-help the widowed, children, elderly, and the least of us. We are mandated to tithe and to give a certain amount of food we grow to the poor. We can make a profit but not at usury rates. We are to periodically forgive loans and be compassionate with our resources and use our money wisely.

While Corporations can be regarded a person for legal reason-they have no soul, are immortal and thus should require more extensive regulation in order to do the right thing. Perhaps this is a quaint idea, but I think it would work well. There is nothing wrong with being a righteous businessman. The two are not and should not be mutually exclusive.

[54anickel]

110. Bravo AnneD!

While Corporations can be regarded a person for legal reason-they have no soul, are immortal and thus should require more extensive regulation in order to do the right thing.

No soul, no social mandate to help anyone (including the shareholders I might add). Their mandate, their charter, is for profit by whatever means. How they got and retained personhood in the legal sense is still beyond me....it boggles the mind.

[Ghost Dog]

123. The Koran, of course, says essentially the same. n/t

[AnneD]

141. The Koran...

is stricter on the interest on loans if I remember the thimble full of Koran knowledge I have. It too has many mandates and prohibitions regarding wealth and charitable giving. I use to work for a geologist that specialized in SA and on time, he brought back some newspapers for me to read. one article that I found interesting was that women had separate banks and separate money. There was some concern that women were getting too much money. I found the whole idea of not commingling male and female money amusing.

[kineneb]

140. Right Livelyhood -

#5 in the Buddhist Eightfold Path.

In a nutshell: It is fine to run a business, even to make a modest profit, as long as it does not cause suffering to other sentient beings.

[AnneD]

142. That's such a

nice and sensible guidline. So I guess Ray Croc and Dave Thomas are burning in a special place-or are they coming back as cows...I can never keep some of these things straight.;)

[scisyhp1]

100. Why would any borrower agree to such terms?

To be on the hook for 45 years worth of interest for a property which
is overpriced to begin with - I'll take forclosure over that every time.
It is in the best financial interests of the borrower to forclose on
a loan which is deeply under water even if he loses some equity in the
process. A better solution would be if lenders reduced the principal
amount on those loans by somewhat less than their estimated cost of
forclosing that property would be to make it benefitial to both sides and see if
the borrower agrees to that. That would also help to revalue all that
paper sold to the banks in a hurry, instead of guesstimating and having
to wait and see how this thing is going to play out.

[Roland99]

101. A few reasons...

Maintain good credit; stay in their home; refi in a couple years (or sooner) when they are able.

[scisyhp1]

109. Those are all good reasons which may or maynot be sufficient

depending on how much upside down the loan is. If your remaining balance
is more than the property is worth, forclosure may look like an attractive
alternative, even when you could easily afford to pay the mortgage. It is
interesting to know how many people are walking away only because the value
of their property dropped so much, in comparison to those truly unable to
pay the higher adjusted rates. That is interesting because it determines
what action will most efficiently limit the forclosure rate. Even freezing
the interest rates will do nothing for people unhappy with value of their
loans in respect to estimated worth of the property. Reducing the principal
to put the loan right side up again will be more useful.

[Roland99]

111. Which is why I think on-the-fly reappraisals to 'right-size' the mortgage is needed, too

[AnneD]

113. There really is no...

one size fits all and even an ARM can have a place. But this is an area where people must be wise in their choices and unfortunantly, their are few people to give them sound advice. One needs to understand who the players work for and what limits do you have.

[AnneD]

103. There are many factors that are taken....

into account(or not). If given a choice of a 45 year fixed (at a lower monthly) or 30 year adjustable-I'd take the fixed. The ideal loan-15 year fixed. Most financial folks don't like it because they don't make as much in obscene interest and they don't cost all that much more a month. When folks have limited money-a longer loan term can help make monthly payments more affordable-but you pay more in interest...that is the trade off. Now, this is assuming that you can get an affordable house. That is one of the problems-people are sold McMansions, whether or not they can afford them. And the mortgage people are unethical in writing those loans.

[antigop]

106. Buy high, sell low. How Wall Street banks frittered away billions

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/magazines/fortune/sloan_banks.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008012405

The one thing Wall Street knows how to do is raise money. The proof: Even with financial markets threatening to melt down worldwide, four of the Street's biggest firms have attracted a total of $50 billion of investor cash to help cover losses on subprime-mortgage-related carnage past and on carnage yet to come.

That's the good news - but there's bad news wrapped around it. When you take out your calculator, you see that these firms - Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and UBS (UBS) - have frittered away billions of dollars by selling their stock for much less than they paid for it.

Hello? Didn't we learn in Investing 101 that the idea is to buy low and sell high? Yet the Wall Street Four, filled with financial geniuses who scarf up seven- and eight-digit pay packages, have done the opposite. The firms bought stock dear when they felt flush and are now selling it cheap because they need the money.

One Merrill deal is the simplest example. In December the Thundering Herd sold $5.6 billion of common stock at $48 a share to raise capital. Earlier in the year, however, it paid 75% more - $84.48 - for the shares it bought in the market. Its sale of $6.6 billion of convertible preferred stock in January fetched an implied price in the low 50s, still way below $84.48. (For more details on these deals, see below.)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

108. The picture of stability.

We do NOT have rampant inflation!
We do NOT have systemic debt!
We're on TOP of it!

[Hugin]

112. ~15:55 ET: Movie Set Facade...

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12373.41 +103.24 +0.84%
• NASDAQ 2359.92 +43.51 +1.88%
• S&P 500 1351.36 +12.76 +0.95%

[Roland99]

114. Cavuto was right!! No recession!

:-)

[Hugin]

115. ...

There was one in the NASDAQ yesterday.

Shhh... I don't want to disturb this pretty picture. It's so serene. :)

[ozymandius]

117. Time to put a fork in this one.

So the blather says the markets rallied over the news of a Congressional ponzi scheme for taxpaying marks. So the more you make - the more you "get". How sweet of those assholes.

Dow 12,378.61 Up 108.44 (0.88%)
Nasdaq 2,360.92 Up 44.51 (1.92%)
S&P 500 1,352.07 Up 13.47 (1.01%)
10-Yr Bond 3.64% Up 0.214
NYSE Volume 5,689,229,500
Nasdaq Volume 3,047,587,500

4:15 pm : It was another choppy day of trading on Thursday, but unlike past sessions the stock market managed to stay in positive territory for most of the day. Reports that a bond insurer bailout is not imminent weighed on the stock market shortly after the opening bell, but stocks managed to finish near their highs on news that an economic stimulus compromise had been reached.

The stock market's ability to advance 1% after yesterday's 5.4% surge from its lows will likely be seen as a positive sign.

Stocks rose to their best levels around 1:30 ET when House leaders Pelosi, Boehner and Treasury Secretary Paulson announced their bipartisan $150 billion fiscal stimulus plan. Individuals who earn up to $75,000 will be eligible for a $600 check and couples who earn up to $150,000 will be eligible for $1,200, according to reports and Paulson's comments. Individuals who do not pay income tax, but have earned more than $3,000 will be eligible for a $300 check. Parents will get $300 per child. Businesses will get $50 billion in incentives. Checks could begin going in May, according to Paulson.

CNBC reports the stimulus includes loan limit increases for GSE and FHA home loans to 125% of an area's median home price, up to $730,000. The current cap is $362,000 for GSE loans and $417,000 for FHA purchases. The increase would be temporary, lasting until the end of the year.

The stimulus plan still has to pass the House and Senate.

With regard to the bond insurers, New York State Insurance Superintendent Dinallo took some wind out of financials after he indicated a plan to help the insurers may take longer than some market participants had hoped. In a press release, Dinallo said it is important to resolve bond insurers' issues as soon as possible. He noted issues are "complicated" and "any effective plan will take some time to finalize."

On the economic front, weekly jobless claims came in at 301,000, lower than the expected reading of 320,000. This is less than the typical recessionary levels of over 450,000 and is a positive sign for the economic outlook.

December existing home sales came in at a worse than expected seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million. This was short of the consensus estimate that called for a reading of 4.95 million. Existing sales are down 2.2% compared to last month's reading of 5.00 million. The median sale price of an existing home is down 6.0% versus last year.

The December home sales report is not good news, but the decrease in mortgage rates may help boost sales or keep them steady in the months ahead. According to Bankrate.com, the average 30-year fixed mortgage is at 5.25%, down from last week's rate of 5.42%.

Five of the ten sectors finished higher, led by a 3.0% surge in tech. Qualcomm (QCOM 40.41, +3.78) surged 10% as inventors embraced its earnings report, which aided in tech's and the Nasdaq's outperformance. Energy advanced 3.2% as it rose in conjunction with crude oil (+2.9% to $89.49). Utilities were the main laggard with a 2.8% decline. DJ30 +108.44 NASDAQ +44.51 NQ100 +2.1% R2K -0.1% SP400 +1.2% SP500 +13.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1292/1733/3.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1187/1994/2.17 bln

[Hugin]

118. Ozy, I'd like to suggest another tracking date on the SMW OP...

First invocation of Rule 48 or
The day the market charts became fiction:

December 12, 2007.

Edit: Corrected date based on info from Roland99.

[Roland99]

119. Wasn't it used once before in Dec.?

[Hugin]

120. Here it is...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=3150729

Yes, you're correct it was used on Dec. 12... But, not on such a wide scale. Most of the Internet
market charts are still broken and/or show a flat-line for January 22.

[TrogL]

124. Loonie Watch - WTF special

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-12-14 Friday, December 14 0.98668 USD
2007-12-17 Monday, December 17 0.992851 USD
2007-12-18 Tuesday, December 18 0.989609 USD
2007-12-19 Wednesday, December 19 0.994431 USD
2007-12-20 Thursday, December 20 1.0017 USD
2007-12-21 Friday, December 21 1.00573 USD
2007-12-24 Monday, December 24 1.01307 USD
2007-12-25 Tuesday, December 25 1.01307 USD
2007-12-26 Wednesday, December 26 1.01688 USD
2007-12-27 Thursday, December 27 1.01958 USD
2007-12-28 Friday, December 28 1.02208 USD
2007-12-31 Monday, December 31 1.01204 USD
2008-01-01 Tuesday, January 1 1.01204 USD
2008-01-02 Wednesday, January 2 1.00786 USD
2008-01-03 Thursday, January 3 1.00959 USD
2008-01-04 Friday, January 4 1.0012 USD
2008-01-07 Monday, January 7 0.995025 USD
2008-01-08 Tuesday, January 8 1.0015 USD
2008-01-09 Wednesday, January 9 0.991768 USD
2008-01-10 Thursday, January 10 0.986291 USD
2008-01-11 Friday, January 11 0.980584 USD
2008-01-14 Monday, January 14 0.979432 USD
2008-01-15 Tuesday, January 15 0.983574 USD
2008-01-16 Wednesday, January 16 0.976753 USD
2008-01-17 Thursday, January 17 0.971817 USD
2008-01-18 Friday, January 18 0.97144 USD
2008-01-21 Monday, January 21 0.97144 USD
2008-01-22 Tuesday, January 22 0.9758 USD
2008-01-23 Wednesday, January 23 0.972573 USD
2008-01-24 Thursday, January 24 0.99295 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9854 0.9931 0.9850 0.9926 +0.0213 +2.11% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9835 0.9920 0.9822 0.9912 +0.0210 +2.08% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9805 0.9895        0.9896 +0.0213 +2.11% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9785 0.9785 0.9780 0.9873 +0.0210 +2.08% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9750 0.9750 0.9750 0.9854 +0.0211 +2.09% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9810 0.9825        0.9844 +0.0221 +2.19% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9834 +0.0231 +2.29% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.H08 Mar 2008 0.88730 0.88730 0.88730 0.88195 -0.00850 -0.98%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.H08 Mar 2008 101.830 101.830 101.830 105.505 +3.415 +3.05%  
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.H08 Mar 2008 1.50270 1.50270 1.50270 1.48595 -0.01675 -1.16%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar gapped up and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9793 on Thursday signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of 2007's rally crossing at 94.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.32. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 99.82. First support is today's gap crossing at 97.70 then Tuesday's low crossing at 96.40.


Analysis

:wtf:

Dude, the loonie gained over 2% of its value in one day and make large gains against other major currencies. That's :crazy: even by my standards.

[TrogL]

125. More blather

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/01/24/markets.html

The Canadian dollar was up 1.70 cents to 99.39 cents US as the prospect of further aggressive rate-cutting by the U.S. Federal Reserve looked to widen the spread between U.S. and Canadian interest rates.

A weaker U.S. dollar and the big gain in commodity prices also gave the loonie support, traders said.

The Canadian dollar continued to rise in after-hours trading — approaching 99.70 cents US. The loonie hasn't traded at par with the U.S. greenback since Jan. 8.

[citizen snips]

126. Microsoft 2Q Profit Tops Expectations

SEATTLE (AP) -- Microsoft Corp. said Thursday its fiscal second-quarter profit topped analysts' expectations and climbed 79 percent, buoyed by rising sales of Windows-based personal computers.

For the quarter ended Dec. 31, profit increased to $4.71 billion, or 50 cents per share, from $2.63 billion, or 26 cents per share last year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had forecast a profit of 46 cents per share.

Revenue rose 31 percent to $16.37 billion from $12.5 billion in the year-ago quarter, ahead of the analysts' prediction of $15.95 billion in sales.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/earns_microsoft.html

[citizen snips]

127. E-Trade Posts $1.7 Billion Loss for 4Q

NEW YORK (AP) -- E-Trade Financial Corp. posted a hefty loss for the fourth quarter on Thursday as the struggling discount brokerage dumped a book of risky investments at a steep discount.

In an illustration of how the mortgage industry crisis has spread to other types of companies, the New York-based brokerage in November said it sold a $3 billion portfolio of mortgage debt to Citadel Investment Group at a $2.2 billion loss.

Hampered by that sale, E-Trade lost $1.71 billion, or $3.98 per share, in the fourth quarter, after a profit of $176.7 million, or 40 cents per share, in the fourth quarter of 2006. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast a smaller loss of $2.90 per share.

Triggered by a Citi Investment Research analyst's report in November mentioning the possibility of bankruptcy, Chief Executive R. Jarrett Lilien said in an interview the focus shifted during the fourth quarter from the company's core business to its investment portfolio.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/earns_e_trade.html

[citizen snips]

128. Bond Insurers Fall After SCA Downgrade

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of bond insurers opened strongly Thursday on hopes of a bailout for the beleaguered sector, but ended up falling sharply after Fitch Ratings downgraded Security Capital Assurance Ltd.

The downgrade renewed fears that the bond insurers may have difficulty meeting their obligations even before a bailout could be organized.

Shares of Security Capital tumbled 30.6 percent to $2.63 after Fitch cut its financial strength rating to "A" from "AAA." Ambac Financial Group Inc. shares dropped 17.3 percent to $11.33 and MBIA Inc. shares plunged 13.3 percent to $14.40.

Security Capital was downgraded after it scrapped plans to raise $2 billion, saying market conditions would make it difficult to raise fresh capital.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/bond_insurers.html

[citizen snips]

129. Greenspan Says Recession Chance 50-50

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday the odds of a U.S. recession are 50 percent or "slightly more," as he defended the risky subprime mortgages that accelerated a drop in the American housing market and subsequent economic downturn.

"The probability of recession is probably 50 percent or maybe slightly more, but we're not there yet," Greenspan told a Vancouver audience.

In Washington, the International Monetary Fund predicted the U.S. economy will likely experience "below-potential" economic growth this year but said it still does not anticipate a recession.

"We still see a period of below-potential growth as the most likely scenario for the U.S., given the economy's good starting position," IMF Director of External Affairs Masood Ahmed said.

Greenspan told the Vancouver crowd of about 1,450 people that subprime mortgages are "a valuable product" that helped increase home ownership in the U.S., especially among minorities.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/canada_greenspan.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

130. U.S. Drilling Hits 22-Year High

WASHINGTON (AP) -- With energy prices soaring, oil and natural gas drilling in the U.S. rose to a 22-year high last year.

Oil drilling, at more than 17,000 completed wells, was the highest since 1990, the trade group said.

Crude oil prices soared last year, rising close to $100 a barrel in late November, before finally crossing the $100-mark earlier this month. Oil production in the U.S. makes up about 10 percent of worldwide supply, according to Energy Department statistics.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $2.42 to settle at $89.41 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February natural gas rose 18.1 cents to settle at $7.802 per 1,000 cubic feet on the Nymex.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/oil_drilling.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

131. S&P 500 Leaders & Laggards: LSI MBI MOLX

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed Thursday, helped in part by LSI Corp. after the chip maker reported a higher fourth-quarter profit.

The S&P 500 advanced 13.47 to 1,352.07.

LSI shares leaped 84 cents, or 21 percent, to $4.85. The company's adjusted quarterly profit, reported late Wednesday, topped the estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

Molex Inc. rose $2.92, or 13.3 percent, to $24.92. The company, which manufactures electrical and fiber optic connection systems and other items, said a weaker dollar and higher telecom orders pushed quarterly revenue above expectations.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/s_p_500_laggards.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

132. Money Funds Rose in Latest Week

NEW YORK (AP) -- Total money market mutual fund assets rose by $64.42 billion to $3.252 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $12.09 billion in the latest week to $1.196 trillion.

Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category rose by $13.06 billion to $906.85 billion for the week ended Wednesday, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Tax-exempt fund assets fell by $975 million to $289.49 billion.

Assets of institutional money market funds rose by $52.33 billion to $2.055 trillion for the same period. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets rose by $52.16 billion to $1.873 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds rose by $177 million to $182.36 billion.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/money_funds.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

133. Commodities Higher Before Fed Decision

NEW YORK (AP) -- Commodities prices climbed broadly Thursday as expectations of another U.S. interest rate cut and rebounding global equities markets boosted investors' appetite for gold, grains and other hard assets.

The Federal Reserve meets next week and investors widely expect the central bank to cut its benchmark federal funds rate by at least a half point; some expect a sharper three-quarter point reduction, matching the cut made by the Fed on Tuesday. Those expectations helped undercut the dollar, boosting the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Precious metals futures surged, with gold topping $900 an ounce for the first time in a week.

"Clear expectations that the Fed will cut once again next week, and cut until some signs of stabilization emerge, continue to fuel the precious metal," Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal said in a research note.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/commodities_review.html?.v=4

[citizen snips]

134. Earnings Roundup: Microsoft, Sun

SEATTLE (AP) -- Microsoft Corp. said Thursday its fiscal second-quarter profit topped analysts' expectations and climbed 79 percent, buoyed by rising sales of Windows-based personal computers.

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Sun Microsystems Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter profit nearly doubled to edge past Wall Street's estimates Thursday, reflecting the server and software maker's cost-cutting efforts and maneuvers to shore up demand amid fierce competition.

Other stories:

CHANDLER, Ariz. (AP) -- Microchip Technology Inc. said Thursday its fiscal third-quarter profit rose 10 percent as sales of its semiconductors grew in Asia.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/earns_roundup_microsoft.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

135. U.S. Debt in 'Severe' Distress

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The volume of U.S. corporate debt issued by companies in severe financial distress rose in January to the highest level in more than four years, suggesting corporate defaults are likely to surge in coming months, Standard & Poor's said Thursday.

The credit-rating agency said the ratio of "distressed" corporate debt to all speculative-grade debt jumped to 11.1 percent in January from 6.1 percent in December. The percentage this month is the highest since September 2003.

The surge occurred despite aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve to ease the credit crunch, which former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has described as the worst in a decade.

A company's debt is considered distressed when its yield is greater than 10 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury note, or about 13.6 percent as of Thursday. The distressed ratio measures the number of distressed securities against the total number of speculative, or junk, securities.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/distressed_debt_increase.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

136. 30-Year Mortgages Rates Decline

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rates on 30-year mortgages dropped for a fourth straight week to the lowest level in nearly four years, raising hopes that low rates will help spur a rebound in the hard-hit housing industry.

Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.48 percent this week, down from 5.69 percent last week.

It was the fourth consecutive decline and the third straight week that rates have been below the 6 percent level. The new rate marked the lowest point for 30-year mortgages since they averaged 5.40 percent the week of March 25, 2004.

Economists attributed the decline to further weak news on the economy combined with the biggest reduction of a key interest rate by the Federal Reserve in more than 20 years, a move that has raised hopes the Fed will be making more rate cuts as it steps up its efforts to combat a threatened economic recession.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/mortgage_rates.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

137. Nasdaq 100 Leaders & Laggards: BIDU PETM

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Baidu.com Inc., Steel Dynamics Inc., and Millicom International Cellular SA helped pull the Nasdaq 100 up Thursday, as positive economic news sent Wall Street higher.

The index, which includes 100 of the largest nonfinancial securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, gained 37.39 points, or 2.1 percent, to 1,826.92. The broader Nasdaq composite added 44.51 points, or 1.9 percent, to 2,360.92.

Baidu.com, a Chinese Internet search engine, advanced $37, or 13.7 percent, to $307.20, reflecting a positive day for a host of Chinese Internet companies listed on U.S. exchanges.

Steel Dynamics rose $5.22, or 11.3 percent, to $51.26, the best performer among steel stocks on a day when almost all of the sector posted strong gains.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/nasdaq_100_laggards.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

138. FCC Formally OKs Clear Channel Buyout

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Communications Commission on Thursday formally approved a $19.5 billion deal to take Clear Channel Communications Inc. private.

FCC commissioners signed off on the deal two weeks ago, but the agency released the order formalizing that approval Thursday.

Clear Channel is being acquired by private-equity companies Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners.

There were no conditions attached to the sale.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080124/fcc_clear_channel.html?.v=1