Zogby: Hillary And McCain Slightly Ahead In NH, Before Iowa Caucus Was Held

[ccpup]

Source: TPM and Zogby

Fresh off their successful predictions for the Iowa Caucus, the first Zogby tracking poll of New Hampshire has come out.

The data comprises phone calls made up through yesterday afternoon, meaning it has no measurement whatsoever of the impact of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee's Iowa wins. However, this is in fact a good thing, as it gives us a benchmark against which to measure poll movement over the next few days:

Democrats:
Clinton 32%
Obama 26%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 7%

Republicans:
McCain 34%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 10%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 7%



Read more: http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/zogby_hillary_and_mccain_slightly_ahead_in_nh_before_iowa_caucus_was_held.php

[papau]

1. LOL Zogby specializes in saying Obama is behind then saying he surges to a win - the polls really

say Obama is already ahead when you factor a 70% of indies rejecting McCain and voting in the Dem primary for Obama.

Zogby will adjust his polling model Monday and announce the obvious.

[maseman]

5. That's ridiculous

Just because poll numbers change doesn't mean a pollster changes the methodology. Zogby is by far one of the top pollsters/researchers in the world. They don't "decide" what methodology to use based on who's winning or losing. That is such a simplistic view of how a respectable pollster does business.

The reason you see fairly large swings is for multiple reasons. First the pool of people who vote in primaries or who attend caucuses are extremely small compared to the overall population. Second, many people are still undecided and do change their minds. Third, some people "play around" with pollsters especially more politically savy people who might answer wrong on purpose.

The bottom line is it is tough to poll about primary elections and we will see bigger swings. A pollster does the the research and uses their best interpretation to read that data.

[ckramer]

2. Wait till Obama work his charm through NH

you will see the poll numbers change soon.

[BlueManDude]

3. Go Mitt Go!!

[Infinite Hope]

4. If Edwards takes over 20% in NH, it'd be a great victory. n/t