STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 9, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 439 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2488 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2210 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2171
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 8, 2007

Dow... 13,266.29 -33.73 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq... 2,696.00 -52.76 (-1.92%)
S&P 500... 1,474.77 -0.85 (-0.06%)
Gold future... 837.50 +4.00 (+0.48%)
30-Year Bond 4.66% -0.01 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.27% -0.06 (-1.41%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Recession Today or Recession Next Year?

BY PAUL NOLTE

The House of Morgan is following along with others on Wall Street by writing down a few billion dollars in debt. As with the various reports, each has wiped out much, if not all the earnings of the prior year with a wave of a sharp pencil. Oil and gold prices are rising, the dollar is falling, sub-prime “blowups” are a weekly occurrence and housing remains on its back – little wonder that the stock market (as measured by the SP500) has taken it on the chin by falling just over 5% from its early October peak. As always, the big question is – what happens next? While the clamor for significantly lower stock prices has increased, so too have those calling the recent decline a buying opportunity, especially in some of the more hammered issues (financials come to mind). So which makes the most sense – and is there enough blood in the streets to begin tip toeing into those portions of the markets that could provide investors significant gains in the years ahead. Let’s review the economic situation and then view some of the industry groups.

The economy is slowing – even Alan Greenspan gives the risks of a recession at 50/50 in a recent speech. It can be argued that we are actually in a recession as we speak – but it won’t be official until late next year when the government makes their pronouncement. If employment is the driver of the consumer, how is the labor situation holding up? Based on the recent non-farm payroll data, a surprisingly good number was reported and revisions to the prior months provided a much better view of employment than had been the case for much of the year. However, this series is becoming more volatile and subject to large monthly revisions, making this series less reliable. We get weekly readings on initial unemployment claims, which have historically done a reasonably good job of confirming a poor labor environment – it last broke a long-term downtrend late in 2000, well ahead of the worst economic carnage. Save for a bump in claims related to Katrina in ’05, this series has been remarkably stable within a fairly wide range between 300,000 and 370,000 since early 2004 – an indication of a relatively stable labor environment. But, the jobs workers are getting are low paying jobs – but if you look at the average hourly earnings, those figures are running at a 4% annual rate and have been doing so since the first quarter of 2006. So far, the employment picture remains decent – not great, but not falling off a cliff, however these series bear watching for the signs of deterioration in employment.

-cut-

Energy prices continue to approach $100/bbl – and it is, at least over the past couple of weeks, worrying investors. Should it? Unless your investment portfolio is all in the energy sector – yes, but not right away. We are likely to see $3.50 or higher at the pump by year-end, however consumers have been only looking at the marginal costs of filling their tank and not that it cost so much less last year. Same is likely to be the case when the heating bills come in – the philosophy seems to be that “I have to drive to get to work, so I’ll pay the fare” or “I have to keep the house warm (maybe not AS warm!), so I’ll pay the bill.” The real issue is when it begins to affect HOW consumers handle their driving or usage of energy – so far, miles driven has not declined by much nor are the sales of “green” vehicles increased substantially. When we begin to see consumers trading in their Hummers or monster vehicles for a fuel efficient vehicle, we will know we have reached the breaking point.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

6. All Recession, All the Time

24/7/365

[Roland99]

23. What's going to happen when the war machine slows down?

All those poor, helpless defense contractors will have to lay off workers and slow production on bombs and missiles and tanks and armored vests and ....

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.0%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -0.2%

8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Briefing Forecast -$59.5B
Market Expects -$58.5B
Prior -$57.6B

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Nov
Briefing Forecast 80.0
Market Expects 80.0
Prior 80.9

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

20. 8:30 reports:

03. U.S. Oct. export prices up 0.9%
8:34 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

04. U.S. Oct. import prices ex-fuels up 0.3%
8:34 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

05. U.S. Oct. import oil prices up 6.9%
8:34 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

06. U.S. Oct. import prices up 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected
8:34 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

01. U.S. Sept. exports rise 1.1% to record $140.1 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

02. U.S. Sept. real trade gap widens by 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

03. U.S. Sept. imported oil price record $68.51 per barrel
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

04. U.S. Sept. non-oil trade deficit lowest in 3 years
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

05. U.S. Sept. China imports $29.4bln, 2nd highest ever
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

06. U.S. Sept. imports up 0.6%, exports rise 1.1%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

07. U.S. Sept. trade gap drops to $56.5bln vs. $59.3bln expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

08. U;S. Sept. trade gap falls to lowest since May 2005
8:30 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

(edited to add the rest of those reports :blush: )

[UpInArms]

30. UMich Nov. consumer sentiment 75.0 vs 80.9 in Oct.

01. UMich Nov. consumer sentiment 75.0 vs 80.9 in Oct.
10:01 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

02. UMich Nov. consumer sentiment below 79.5 forecast
10:01 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

[Ghost Dog]

58. Consumer sentiment tumbles

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071109/bs_nm/usa_economy_sentiment_dc;_ylt=Al4PAHBHKGim99pLE3EHlcO573QA

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment posted a surprisingly sharp fall in early November, hitting its lowest in two years as high energy costs and falling home prices pummeled confidence, a survey released on Friday showed.

The bleak sentiment could also be complicated by a spike in price expectations, which may make an inflation-wary Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates to shore up the consumer-driven economy.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 75.0 from October's final result of 80.9.

This was well below economists' median expectation of 80.0 in a poll conducted by Reuters and was the lowest since 74.2 in October 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

"Consumer confidence sank to its lowest level in two years. Nearly the entire early November decline was among lower-income households due to surging complaints about high gas prices," said a statement accompanying the survey results.

The survey result could be an ominous sign for the economy heading into the key holiday shopping season since consumer sentiment is often seen as a proxy for future spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

The survey's gauge of current economic conditions tumbled to 91.0 -- its worst since March 2003 -- from 97.6 in October.

The outlook for the future also looked grim, with consumer expectations slumping to a two-year low of 64.7 from 70.1 last month.

The survey's gauge of one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.4 percent -- its highest since a similar reading in July 2007 -- after holding at 3.1 for the previous two months. Five-year inflation expectations rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8.

/...

[UpInArms]

38. US leading index growth rate at a 59-week low-ECRI

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00340820071109

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week due to lower jobless claims and higher money supply and industrial material prices, while its annualized growth rate declined to the lowest in more than a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 140.1 in the week ended Nov. 2 from 139.4 in the prior week.

The uptick in the WLI index was partially offset by slower housing activity, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The growth rate fell to minus 0.9 percent from minus 0.7 percent, to reach its lowest level since Sept. 15, 2006, when it was negative 0.9 percent, according to ECRI data.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises on persistent supply concerns

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Friday to regain some of the ground lost in a fall the previous session, as persistent supply concerns and a late rebound in U.S. stocks offset worries about U.S. economic growth.

Wall Street fell Thursday but finished well off its lows after a late rebound in financial shares lifted other stock sectors. The rebound prompted fresh buying in crude oil futures.

-cut-

Light, sweet crude for December delivery gained 69 cents to $96.15 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

The contract fell 91 cents to settle at $95.46 a barrel Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the housing slump and high oil prices, among other factors, will slow economic growth in coming months, a warning that sent stocks tumbling.

-cut-

Energy investors worry that any slowdown in the U.S. or global economy will crimp demand for oil and gasoline. The U.S. is the world's largest user of oil, accounting for about a quarter of daily petroleum consumption.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Unseasonably Higher, Gas Prices Add to Strain on U.S. Consumers

HOUSTON, Nov. 7 — Most years, the shorter days and lower temperatures of autumn mean falling gasoline prices, as demand eases from the busy summer travel season.

-cut-

The national average for regular gas surpassed $3 a gallon this week, and drivers could be paying record prices this holiday season, experts said. The timing of such an unusual jump could crimp consumer spending at a vital time for retailers.

-cut-

Barring some unexpected development like a big drop in the price of oil, Mr. Kloza and other experts said, gas could be headed toward $4 a gallon by spring. Gasoline prices have trailed surging oil prices, but they are starting to catch up as crude oil nears $100 a barrel. Oil settled down slightly yesterday, at $96.37 a barrel.

On Wednesday the national average gas price for unleaded regular reached $3.04 — an increase of nearly 28 cents in the last month, according to AAA, the automobile club. Average gasoline prices in November had never exceeded $3 a gallon before this year. A year ago, the average price at the pump was $2.20, meaning it costs roughly $12.50 more today to fill a car with a 15-gallon tank.

-cut-

William R. Veno, an expert on gasoline at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm, also projects lower crude prices next year. But he warned that gasoline inventories could drop in the coming months as refiners expect to produce more profitable heating oil for the winter, leading to further pressure on gasoline prices.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/08/business/08gas.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin

[UpInArms]

21. Rising cost of crude oil pushes prices higher on a slew of consumer products

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/costly-crude-fuels-price-hikes/story.aspx?guid=%7bBB5FACF8-DF6E-4E7F-A19F-E9F952002268%7d&print=true&dist=printTop

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Let the consumer beware: Costs are going up on almost everything the average American family consumes.

Blame it on crude oil. The rocketing price of crude oil is not only sharply hiking the costs of fueling the car and heating the home, but is bidding up prices on the raw materials that go into goods from produce to perfume.

At the same time, the push to develop ethanol as an alternative fuel through corn and similar products is inflating the cost of feed for cows, pigs and other farm animals - and that also increases the prices consumers pay.

"Oil affects everything from top to bottom," said Phil Flynn, energy analyst at Alaron Trading. "Most people wear crude oil every day."

Crude-oil futures toyed ever-closer to the $100-a-barrel mark this week, hitting $96.70 on Tuesday before dropping to $95.46 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday.

Consumer-product giants ranging from Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) and General Mills Corp. (GIS) to Wm. Wrigley Co. (WWY) and Bridgestone Firestone North America Tire have warned in recent weeks that the price increases they've already put in place this year could go higher yet.

...more...

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures fall

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Stock index futures fell before the start of Wall Street trading on Friday with the financial sector in focus amid continuing uncertainty about the fall-out of the credit crisis.

S&P 500 companies due to report include Fannie Mae (FNM.N), the largest U.S. home finance company. Its results come two days after news that the New York attorney general's office was sending it a subpoena as part of a probe of the home loan industry.

"The uncertainty about whether credit institutes and investment banks will need more write downs and what the consequences of that would be for the rest of the economy will preoccupy the stock market for some time to come," LandesBank Berlin (LBB) said in a note.

-cut-

"Markets worry about the rising risk of a recession (in the United States) caused by the swelling credit crisis and the surge in oil prices," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

U.S. Economic data due on Friday include September trade and import and export prices for October, both at 1330 GMT, followed by preliminary consumer confidence for November at 1500 GMT and the weekly ECRI index of economic activity at 1530 GMT.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071109/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[Roland99]

10. DJ futures now at -100

[UpInArms]

24. US STOCKS-Futures fall further after import price data

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0932849520071109

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell further on Friday after data showed October import prices rose faster than expected.

S&P 500 futures (SPc1: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 15.6 points and were below fair value, a formula to evaluate pricing taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures (DJc1: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 109 points, and Nasdaq 100 (NDc1: Quote, Profile, Research) futures slid 26.3 points.

[ozymandius]

7. Consumer confidence hits 2-year low

WASHINGTON - Consumer confidence plunged in early November to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina battered the Gulf Coast and sent oil prices soaring in 2005.

The RBC Cash Index showed consumer confidence fell to a reading of 64 this month, down sharply from an early October reading of 80.6, when consumer sentiment was on the upswing as the stock market stabilized temporarily following a turbulent August.

However, renewed market turbulence, oil prices threatening to hit $100 a barrel and a continued steep slump in housing combined to jolt consumer confidence in the latest survey done by the international polling firm Ipsos.

The 64 reading was the lowest point for the monthly survey since it hit 61.5 in September 2005, a month when energy prices soared, reflecting the shutdown of Gulf Coast refineries after Katrina struck.

The RBC Cash Index was in line with other surveys of consumer confidence, including the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey which has also dropped to the lowest level since the fall of 2005.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071109/ap_on_bi_ge/consumer_confidence

[ozymandius]

8. FDA damned if it does, damned if it doesn't

Stung by criticism that it was too cozy with the industry, the agency got tougher after Vioxx. Now who's upset? Big Pharma. Fortune's John Simons examines an embattled regulator.

(Fortune) -- The FDA just can't win. After years of public ridicule and congressional scrutiny, the Food and Drug Administration is taking a tougher stance against drugmakers in its review of new medicines. That new cautiousness, however, rankles its most powerful constituents: Big Pharma CEOs who charge that the agency is standing in the way of new medicines - and progress.

So is the FDA really to blame?

The agency's critics are vexed about recent reports that show FDA regulators have approved only 15 novel medicines so far this year - a pace that will likely match a 10-year low reached in 2002. Big Pharma CEOs contend that the FDA has become too anxious and hyper-vigilant about safety, requiring reams of additional data before it can make a decision.

-cut-

If Big Pharma is feeling more put upon, there is one big change to which the FDA will admit. FDA has two main duties as it relates to medicines: pre-marketing evaluation and post-marketing observation, which includes, for instance, monitoring advertising practices and collecting ongoing safety data. FDA officials contend that in the wake of 2004's Vioxx recall, when Merck withdrew its wildly popular painkiller over concerns that it caused heart attacks, the FDA has become more vigilant in its post-marketing oversight of drugs.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/08/magazines/fortune/simons_fda.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007110905

[ozymandius]

9. Merck said to settle Vioxx suits for $4.85B

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Merck has agreed to pay $4.85 billion to settle up to 27,000 claims over injuries linked to its Vioxx painkiller, according to published reports.

The settlement is expected to be announced Friday morning and represents a change in stance for the drugmaker, which earlier had insisted it would fight each Vioxx case, the Wall Street Journal said.

The settlement is one of the biggest ever in civil litigation, according to the New York Times. It comes after almost 20 Vioxx civil trials were held over the last two years.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/09/news/companies/merck_vioxx/index.htm?postversion=2007110904

[ozymandius]

11. futures at this hour

06:20 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: -10.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.8.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/StockMarketUpdate.htm

[ozymandius]

12. Good morning everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's time to go to work - back to school. Thanks to UpInArms for posting yesterday's thread. My DSL feels like it's back to normal.

See you at the end of the day.

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

28. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. Glad to hear all is well in the Ozy household.

It's amazing how things can change in 24 hours. Bush leaves the state, the sun comes, the air is fresh.....

But truly, I am happy because we have a new addition to our family tree. Our newest lil nut was finally, officially adopted. Rachel has been living with my brother and SIL since she was taken from her home as a toddler. She had 2 broken arms and suffered from a 'failure to thrive'. She is certainly thriving these days. She is a hoot and a holler. She did hoard food for a while but that has stopped. The only residual problem we have is a few anger issues and they have to work through those. The school district has corporal punishment, but my brother has been really firm on that point and insists that he can be there in under 15 minutes to address the problems. A firm word from him has a lot more meaning to her than any spanking the principal could do.

The worst thing she did of late was whip the crap out of a 4th grader that was tormenting her on the bus and bus stop (she is in 1st grade).:wow: Brother refused to punish her for standing up for herself, and told the male student that if he wanted to tell the school 1)that he was teasing a 1st grader and 2) admit that she whipped his butt, he was free to do so, but it might make him look stupid. That problem seemed to work itself out.:rofl: Yeah, she's the littlest nut on our family tree-she fits right in.

And speaking of nuts, they keep trying to pass off this PTT activity as bargain hunting:eyes:
That's the current spin anyway. I think the web they are weaving is getting a tad tangled.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

Edited to add that the spell check has gone wild today-hope I got everything.

[antigop]

33. Thanks for that story, AnneD. Hope she continues to thrive. n/t

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

41. Corporal Punishment?

That's why kids should learn martial arts, so they can turn assault by the school administration into a two-way conversation on violence and assault.

[AnneD]

48. Not my first choice ....

to solve a problem with a young child-esp this one. Now don't get me wrong-brother is strict, and she is expected to behave-but she does. Yeah, she talks about how mean he is because she doesn't get her way, but he doesn't lay a hand on her. We aren't too big on that. Spanking is a tool in parenting but it is a tool we prefer to leave in the tool box whenever possible.

[Spazito]

46. How wonderful for that little girl, it is clear she will have a life

full of love from now on! Thank you for posting about such a happy event!

[AnneD]

59. We have considered her part of the family ....

the moment they brought her home with her little arms in casts and a g-tube button. She is big on tea parties and lines up all her dolls (and adults too-I have the incriminating photos of all of us in hats and boas):spray:

I remember SIL saying to me last Christmas that we took to her so that you would never know she was adopted. I looked at her in mock shock and ask...She's adopted? That can't be, I remember you bringing her home from the hospital;) Yeah, she'll get lot's of TLC.

I think I can offer everyone drinks now: :party::toast::toast::toast::beer:

[bain_sidhe]

56. Congratulations on the lil nut!

I was adopted myself. Best wishes for a healthy and happy future for the newest addition to the family!

[AnneD]

60. Every child has the right ....

to be loved and grow up in a nurturing environment. I am sure you count yourself lucky.:toast::beer:

[bain_sidhe]

66. Yup... to both!

Every child deserves loving and nurturing parents, and YES, I'm one of the lucky ones. My situation wasn't as dire as the lil nut's, but it wasn't good... and I was old enough to know the difference when I got adopted (I was four). There will always be "issues" -- both for myself, and I suspect for the little one -- because the things we experience while our personalities are being formed get hardwired in to our personalities. But with self-awareness (i.e., knowing what your issues are and developing strategies to deal with them), they needn't make us dysfunctional.

[DemReadingDU]

13. Whitney: A Market Without Parachutes

11/8/07 The Long Fall
A Market Without Parachutes By Mike Whitney


The dollar fell another 2% last night, gold soared to $840 per ounce, oil topped $98 per barrel, General motors reported a $39 billion loss after the market closed on Tuesday, the real estate market continued its downward slide, and the major investment banks are marching in lock-step towards bankruptcy.

The news is all bad. The nation’s economic foundation is in shambles. US credibility is shot. Bush and Greenspan have put us on the road to ruin. Now their work is done. We’re flat broke.

The catalogue of fiscal ailments now facing the country is too long to list. We’d need a ledger the size of a small encyclopedia. There’s been a stampede away from the dollar even though it’s already lost over 60% of its value since Bush took office and even though central banks around the world will lose their shirts if it collapses. They don’t care. They’re getting out while they can.
.
.
The constant drumbeat of bad news is having a numbing affect on Wall Street. Traders’ are tight-lipped and downcast. Spirits are sagging. No one likes loosing money, and yet, the credit storm shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial’s took another 360-point pounding before the bell rang. Another day, another bloodbath. The subprime virus has now infected the broader markets leaving the once-brawny financial giants bruised and reeling like Joe Frazier in the Thrilla in Manila. A few more down-days like yesterday and they’ll be carrying out hedge funds feet first. The stock market is looking more and more like a glass pitcher propped up on the edge of a bookshelf. One little bump, and down she goes.

more...
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18691.htm

[DemReadingDU]

14. Jim Willie: Deadly Dollar Confluence

11/8/07 Deadly Dollar Confluence by Jim Willie CB


The public and investment community continues to be bombarded with denials as to the importance of the seemingly endless slide in the USDollar, along with curiously shallow commentary that the US$ slide seems overdone. The US$ exchange rates could justify a 50% decline from here, out of sheer principle, not based upon the relative price of milk cartons or taxi rides. The comprehension of the gold breakout signal seems equally misunderstood and minimized. To be clear, the people have begun to sense with alarm the nature of the energy cost problem, but do not detect its weak currency roots. The USEconomy is soon to receive a series of cost shocks, starting with another 50 cents higher in gasoline per gallon. The US$ woes are hedged by crude oil positions, resulting in crude oil leading the USDollar declines. The financial sector has a painfully clear vested interest to minimize the US$ threat, pointing out the small positive on export business growth. Wall Street needs a favorable light on the currency behind all of its financial asset investments, naturally. We are fast approaching, if not already smack dab in the middle, of a confluence of powerful negative factors exerting downward relentless pressure on the US$ exchange rates.

A powerful bearish momentum is driven by three extremely important factors: fundamentals, technicals, and psychology. The US$ fundamentals are miserable, resembling a Third World nation, marred by gigantic deficits and emphasis on war. The US$ technicals are miserable, whose DX index chart reveals a massive generational breakdown below critical support. The US$ psychology is miserable, accompanied by broad international revolt, defection, and diversification away from its corrosive losses. Just today, French President Sarkozy beat some war drums over the crippled, subprime currency called the USDollar. He stated a warning that the Untied States has engaged in an economic war to devalue the USDollar in order to deal with its severe problems. The implication is that the USGovt and financial sector is attempting to renege on loans (due to devaluation), to export its monetary policy (freezing other central banks), to render cheaper its exports (while foreigners have their exports rendered most expensive), and to do so with its usual fare of fraudulent toxins scattered to foreign lands. Just yesterday, the Chinese unofficially announced a strategy to avoid weak currencies and embrace strong currencies. To me this is a bold slam against the USGovt and ugly offshoot of the trade friction.

It seems almost every day we find a significant story to paint yet another ugly face on the USDollar ultra-slow motion collapse. It is gaining downward momentum. No bounce off 78, none off 77, none off 76. We are witnessing the middle stage shock waves, which in my view will result in the death of the USDollar. These are strong words. So are those coming from Asia out of anger. So are those coming from the Persian Gulf out of a sense of betrayal. So are those coming from Russia out of outright hostility. The Untied States has taken foreign credit supply for granted, then engaged in fraud on a grander scale than ever has been witnessed in all of modern history. The backlash is reaching a critical stage nowadays, with some expected and some unexpected reactions. Look for a global boycott of some sort. The main engine upholding the USDollar is the US$ printing press used by the USGovt henchmen.

more...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2007/1108.html

[AnneD]

52. Falling dollar spurs U.S. exports to all-time high

WASHINGTON — The U.S. trade deficit fell to the lowest level in 28 months as a falling dollar spurred U.S. exports to an all-time high. The deficit with China jumped to the second highest level on record as imports of toys and other goods surged despite a rash of safety recalls.

The Commerce Department said today that the deficit for September dipped by 0.6 percent from the previous month — to $56.5 billion. That was the narrowest trade imbalance since May 2005 and took economists by surprise. They had been forecasting the deficit would rise.

<snip>
Critics of President Bush's trade policies say that even with the narrowing of the deficit this year, the imbalances are still running at unsustainable levels, forcing the United States to depend more and more on foreigners' willingness to hold dollars to finance the imbalances.

While a falling dollar is good for exports, it raises worries that at some point foreigners will be less willing to purchase dollar-denominated investments such as U.S. stocks and bonds. Such a change in sentiment could send stock prices plunging and push up U.S. interest rates.
<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5288264.html

That last paragraph explains why the markets went haywire when the Chinese talked about divesting themselves of dollars.

[DemReadingDU]

Federal Liabilities Now Equal $175,000 for Every American

Federal Liabilities Now Equal $175,000 for Every American
By Terence P. Jeffrey
CNSNews.com Editor in Chief
November 08, 2007


Deficit spending and promised benefits for federal entitlement programs have put every man, woman, and child in the United States on the hook for $175,000, says a new report by David Walker, comptroller general of the United States.

On Tuesday, Walker sent the results of his audit of the federal debt to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The audit revealed that, as of Sept. 30, the last day of fiscal year 2007, the U.S. government owed $8.993 trillion.

Of this nearly $9 trillion in debt, $5.049 trillion is in the form of Treasury securities held by the public, while the other $3.944 trillion is in the form of loans made to the Treasury from "surpluses" in the trust funds of federal entitlement programs, including the Social Security, Medicare, military retirement, and civic service retirement programs.

In addition to this debt, which represents money the federal government has already spent, the government also faces a gap between the projected revenue expected from the current tax structure and the spending that will be required to cover promised benefits in Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Administration and other entitlement programs.

"If these items are factored in," Walker said in his report, "the total burden in present value dollars is estimated to be about $53 trillion. Stated differently, the estimated current total burden for every American is nearly $175,000; and every day that burden becomes larger."

a little more...
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200711/NAT20071108b.html

[UpInArms]

15. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.326 Change -0.124 (-0.16%)

Settle Time 15:04 Open 75.429

Previous Close 75.45 High 75.436

Low 74.978 2007-11-09 07:29:20, 30 min delay

52wk High 85.7 52wk High Date 2006-11-17

52wk Low 75.077 52wk Low Date 2007-11-07

Bernanke Kills Any Chance for a Dollar Rally

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Bernanke_Kills_Any_Chance_for_1194559622966.html

The US dollar remained weak as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke killed any chance for a dollar rally. In his testimony to Congress today, Bernanke commented on the upside risks to inflation but focused more on the downside risks to growth. More specifically, the Fed Chairman expects growth to slow noticeably in the fourth quarter, which confirms his dovishness. If he had done the opposite and focused more on inflation like his counterparts in the Eurozone and Australia, the dollar could have rallied. However he chose to spend his time expressing concern that higher energy prices, tighter credit and continued weakness in the US housing market would lead to softer consumer spending. This coincides with the survey results from 10 of the nation’s largest retailers, 7 of which including Wal-Mart and Macy’s reported sales below forecasts. For dollar bears still looking for a recession, the Fed’s acknowledgement that consumer spending could be at risk indicate that they haven’t completely ruled out another rate cut. Although extremely volatile, Fed funds future are now pricing in a 90 percent chance for an interest rate cut next month. We have seen these expectations turn on a dime over the past few weeks so there is only so much credit that we can give to this data especially since we will not be receiving the most up to date retail sales and inflation reports until next week. Rising gasoline prices are becoming a growing problem; over the past 2 weeks, average gas prices according to AAA have increased 15 cents in California. In Santa Cruz, the average price per gallon is $3.37 and in Gorda, California, some drivers are paying up to $5 a gallon. Winter heating bills across the nation are expected to rise as much as 25 percent according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest monthly forecast. As a result, our call for EUR/USD to rise to 1.50 remains intact even though tomorrow’s data has a better chance of being dollar positive than negative. We are expecting the release of trade balance numbers for the month of September as well as import prices and consumer confidence. The recent weakness of the US dollar should help to improve the trade balance and drive up import prices. Consumer confidence however will probably suffer.

...more...

Forex News: Yuan Posts Biggest Weekly Gain Against The Dollar In Two Years, Carry Trades Falter

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/top_fx_market_movers/Forex_News__Yuan_Posts_Biggest_1194610839422.html



• NZDUSD – New Zealand housing sales plummeted 22.6 percent in October from a year earlier, signaling that interest rates at a record high has led to a sharp slowdown in the property market.
• USDJPY – Carry trades unwound as the yuan posted the biggest weekly gain against the dollar in two years after US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said China is "out of step" with the rest of the world's calls for faster appreciation.
• USDCHF –The SECO consumer confidence survey for Switzerland unexpectedly held steady at a reading of 15 in October, suggesting that tight labor market conditions are keeping households optimistic.
• EURUSD – The EU raised the 2008 inflation forecast for the region to 2.1 percent from 1.9 percent, reiterating ECB President Trichet’s comments that upside inflation risks remain. However, the outlook for 2008 GDP was revised lower, all of which suggests that the ECB has very little room to maneuver in monetary policy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Dollar slumps to fresh record low against euro

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071109/bs_afp/forexeurope

LONDON (AFP) - The dollar hit a new record low against the euro Friday after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke painted a gloomy picture of the US economy that fuelled speculation about another US rate cut, dealers said.

The euro jumped to an historic high of 1.4752 dollars in early European trade, also a day after the European Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 4.00 percent.

The European single currency later stood at 1.4737 dollars, from 1.4676 in New York late on Thursday.

"Not even Bernanke's reference to the upside risks for inflation has been able to deter (US) rate cut expectations among investors, in particular as the economic slowdown against the background of rising inflationary pressures can only be considered to be detrimental for the dollar," Commerzbank currency strategist Antje Praefcke said.

In his testimony to Congress Thursday, Bernanke focused on the risks to growth and expectations of a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter and into 2008.

"Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity," Bernanke told lawmakers.

He said consumer spending was likely to grow more slowly in view of higher energy prices, credit issues and continuing weakness in housing.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

19. Low 74.978 2007-11-09 07:29:20

:wow:

[Roland99]

22. See Ron Paul on CNBC last night? He seems to be the only politician worried about the dollar.

[Ghost Dog]

63. Yen surges on fears over market risks

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0935560420071109?rpc=44

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The yen rose broadly on Friday, hitting a 1-1/2-year high against the dollar, as fears of wider credit-related losses at U.S. financial institutions cut into investor appetite for risk, causing carry trades to unwind.

Carry trades, where investors fund purchases of securities in high-yielding currencies by borrowing in a low-yielding one such as the yen, have come under fire, causing the biggest weekly decline in the dollar against the yen since March.

News that U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest in two years on falling house prices and high energy costs added to the dollar's woes as it strengthened market views of more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

"Fear is predominant in the market that the worst is not behind us in the subprime sector. As a result all risk is getting liquidated and the yen benefits tremendously when the carry trades get unwound," said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at DailyFX.com in New York.

The dollar dropped as low as 110.52 yen <JPY=>, its lowest level since May 2006, according to Reuters data. It was last trading at 110.69 yen, down 1.7 percent on the day.

/...

[UpInArms]

17. Citigroup gives ex-CEO Prince $40 million package

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071109/bs_nm/citigroup_prince_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N), the largest bank in the United States, said on Thursday that its former Chairman and Chief Executive, Charles Prince, will take home roughly $40 million as he retires from the company.

The package is less than a quarter of what former Merrill Lynch Chief Executive Stan O'Neal was awarded when he was ousted from the investment bank last week.

The terms of Prince's retirement include the vesting of options estimated to be worth $1.28 million, the vesting of deferred stock estimated to be worth $16.05 million and the vesting of restricted shares worth $10.7 million.

The package also includes a little more than 83 percent of his 2006 bonus and stock awards of about $23.8 million, adjusted for the total shareholder return for 2007, which is so far a decline of about 38 percent. That totals another $12.3 million or so.

Citi said on Sunday that Prince was retiring amid billions of dollars of expected fourth-quarter writedowns for securities linked to subprime mortgages. Citi wrote down $6.8 billion in the third-quarter.

Citi shares have fallen for eight straight sessions, in a slump that has chopped $48.5 billion off the bank's market capitalization.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Curious George dolls linked to lead

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071108/ap_on_bi_ge/curious_george_recall

WASHINGTON - About 175,000 Curious George Plush Dolls were recalled Thursday, becoming the latest popular toy made in China found to be contaminated with dangerous levels of lead.

Manufactured by Marvel Toys, of New York, N.Y., the Curious George dolls contain excessive levels of lead in their surface paint, according to the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

Although no reports of illnesses connected to this product have been reported, lead is toxic if ingested by young children. Children's products found to have more than 0.06 percent lead accessible to users are subject to a recall.

The recalled dolls have a plastic face and are sold in five different models, including "birthday," "fireman," "sweet dreams," "tool time" and "tool time with a soft face." They were sold with Curious George story or activity books at toy and discount department stores nationwide from December 2005 through August 2007.

<snip>

About 51,000 Children's Fashion Sunglasses, imported and distributed by Dolgencorp Inc. of Goodlettsville, Tenn., were also recalled Thursday because of dangerous levels of lead. No injuries have been reported.

The recalled sunglasses, made in China, are yellow colored with the UPC No. 400007860896. They were sold at Dollar General stores nationwide from March 2005 through October 2007.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Stupid Terrified Fed: Fed doing 5-day repo to add temporary reserves

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00083920071109

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Friday it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system via a 5-day repurchase agreement.

Federal funds were trading at 4.50 percent in the market after the operation was announced, matching the 4.50 percent target rate the Fed sets.

[Buttercup McToots]

29. It's fun watchin` CNBC...

They are slightly hysterical...:eyes:

[UpInArms]

31. Fed adds $3.25 bln in reserves via 5-day repo

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0933988020071109

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Friday it added $3.25 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through a 5-day repurchase agreement.

Federal funds were trading at 4.50 percent in the market after the operation amount was announced, matching the target rate the Fed sets.

The Fed said collateral accepted in the operation was $3.25 billion in agency debt. A total of $77.95 billion in bids were submitted for the operation.

[Jemmons]

69. You paint a dollar sign on a rock...

The Mogambo Guru: You paint a dollar sign on a rock, which you can also use to defend yourself, and (according to the instructions), "Hold the rock in an outstretched hand, making sure the rock is well away from your body, then say aloud 'Oh, Magnificent Mogambo US Dollar Index Predictor, what will the dollar's value be over the long run?' then let go of the rock." It's uncanny how accurate it is! And just in time for that holiday gift-giving season, too! Hahahaha!


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK10Dj01.html

[UpInArms]

26. 9:37 EST Soaring Like a Lead Balloon

Dow 13,103.55 162.74 (1.23%)
Nasdaq 2,639.57 56.43 (2.09%)
S&P 500 1,455.82 18.95 (1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.262% 0.011

NYSE Volume 145,840,937.5
Nasdaq Volume 140,057,421.875

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -41.0. Futures trade indicates that is going to be another tough day for large-cap tech stocks.

08:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -19.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.0. Just hitting the wires, the Commerce Dept. reports that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in September to $56.5 bln, from a downwardly revised reading of $56.8 bln in August. Economists expected a deficit of $58.5 billion. Futures reaction is limited.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -31.5. Early indications suggest a decidedly lower open. The catalysts for the negative bias include disappointing guidance from Qualcomm (QCOM) and news from Wachovia (WB) that it saw a $1.1 billion decline in the value of its collateralized debt obligations and expects to increase its provision for loan losses in the fourth quarter by $500 million to $600 million in excess of charge-offs. Meanwhile, Merck (MRK) has confirmed an agreement to resolve U.S. VIOXX product liability lawsuits. If certain conditions are met, the company will pay a fixed amount of $4.85 billion.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.8.

06:19 am : FTSE...6395.20...+13.30...+0.2%. DAX...7863.45...+43.98...+0.6%.

[UpInArms]

27. Fannie Mae says credit losses rose $477M to $799M

11. Fannie Mae says credit losses rose $477M to $799M
9:11 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 29 minutes ago

12. Fannie Mae income $1.5B for first 3 qtrs of 2007 vs $3.5B
9:09 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 31 minutes ago

13. Fannie Mae says credit-related expenses up $1.6B to $2.0B
9:09 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 31 minutes ago

14. Fannie Mae EPS $1.17 for first 3 quarters of 2007 vs $3.16
9:08 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 32 minutes ago

15. Fannie Mae files 2007 quarterly reports with SEC
9:07 AM ET, Nov 09, 2007 - 33 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

32. Fannie Mae 3rd-quarter loss widens to $1.52 bln

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0937758520071109

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a third-quarter net loss that was double its loss from a year earlier because of slumping home prices and the squeeze in credit markets that drove values of mortgage securities lower.

Fannie Mae, the largest source of mortgage financing in the United States, said its third-quarter loss widened to $1.52 billion, including preferred stock dividends, or $1.56 per share, from $760 million, or 79 cents per share, a year earlier.

Friday's filing marked a return to current financial reporting for Fannie Mae since it was shaken by an accounting scandal in 2004. The company has promised to return to timely reporting with its annual report to be offered in February 2008.

...more...

[Hugin]

49. Quite the difference from the $600m (or so) they were reporting earlier...

Aren't there quite a few more zeros involved in a Billion? Like, it's 3 times as bad as previously reported?

[UpInArms]

34. 10:10 EST rebounding with Dewey decimals

Dow 13,136.39 129.90 (0.98%)
Nasdaq 2,650.85 45.15 (1.67%)
S&P 500 1,459.90 14.87 (1.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.246% 0.027

NYSE Volume 538,618,187.5
Nasdaq Volume 461,151,218.75

09:40 am : The equity market is on the defensive following disappointing developments in the two most influential sectors in terms of their weighting.

The financial sector is under pressure after Wachovia (WB) announced that its CDO's dropped in value by $1.1 billion and that it increased provisions for loan losses in the fourth quarter by $500 million. There were also rumors that London based Barclays (BCS) is getting ready to announce a write-down of as much as $10 billion. According to Dow Jones, Barclays said there was no substance to those rumors.

The tech sector, which declined nearly 4.0% yesterday, is again out of favor following disappointing guidance from Qualcomm (QCOM). DJ30 -165.59 NASDAQ -62.84 SP500 -22.87

[antigop]

35. S&P says State St-managed CDO liquidating assets

http://www.reuters.com/article/coMktNews/idUKT5174220071109?rpc=11&pageNumber=1

A collateralised debt obligation (CDO) managed by State Street Global Advisors has started selling assets, ratings agency Standard & Poor's said late on Thursday, raising worries that a wider array of structured securities may do the same.

S&P said it slashed its ratings on Carina CDO Ltd's top tranche of securities by 11 notches to the junk level of BB from the top-notch triple-A. S&P also chopped its ratings on the subordinate levels of the CDO, eight all the way to CC.

The trustee of the Carina CDO has started selling the asset-backed securities making up the CDO at the direction of the structure's noteholders, S&P said.

"We believe the liquidation process has begun," S&P said in its press release.

[Buttercup McToots]

36. USD $75.15...@ 10:29 am

goin` down...

[Buttercup McToots]

37. Hindenburg Omen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

Hindenburg Omen
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
• Learn more about using Wikipedia for research •Jump to: navigation, search
The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis signal that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, the crash of the German zeppelin of the same name in May 1937. The Hindenburg Omen is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows - but not both. When both new highs and new lows are large, it indicates the stock market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence. Such divergence is not usually conductive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some degree of internal uniformity, whether the direction of that uniformity is up or down.

:eyes:

Ye think?

[UpInArms]

39. Credit crisis worse than LTCM, Lehman's Malvey says

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0937458120071109

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The credit crisis gripping the U.S. is now worse than the crisis of confidence following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and recession risks are growing, said Jack Malvey, chief global fixed income strategist at Lehman Brothers.

"This is the deepest correction we've ever seen in structured finance," Malvey said in an interview on Friday. "This is now worse than Long-Term Capital. This is so dispersed, so interlocked and the relationships among the various entities are not as evident. This is a painful lesson in financial engineering."

[UpInArms]

40. 10:54 EST I don't think that 3.25 is gonna do it

Dow 13,092.25 174.04 (1.31%)
Nasdaq 2,637.26 58.74 (2.18%)
S&P 500 1,456.63 18.14 (1.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.252% 0.021

NYSE Volume 1,027,706,062.5
Nasdaq Volume 820,965,000

10:30 am : The major indices have recovered off their lows, despite a worse-than-expected economic report. The indices are still in the red, but have pared a good portion of their intraday losses due to a broad-based pickup in buying interest led by the financial sector (-0.6%). The telecom (+0.5%) and healthcare (+0.1%) sectors are now in the green.

Reported at 10:00 ET, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 75.0, its lowest level since October of 2005. Economists expected a reading of 80.0.DJ30 -123.56 NASDAQ -43.06 SP500 -12.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2087/539/506 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2661/312/193 mln

10:00 am : The main laggards are the financial (-2.5%) and tech (-2.4%) sectors, which are a significant drag on the broader market. The sectors combined make up more than 30% of the S&P's market capitalization. There is a lack of strength in all sectors, as all ten are in negative territory.

In corporate news this morning, Merck & Co. (MRK 56.54, +1.77) has agreed to pay $4.85 billion to resolve claims of strokes and heart attacks related to its withdrawn painkiller Vioxx. Although the drug maker has successfully defended itself against a barrage of lawsuits, the agreement could put the uncertainty of possible settlements behind the company and allow it to focus on its business operations. Investors welcomed the news, sending shares more than 3% higher in early-trading. DJ30 -168.52 NASDAQ -56.64 SP500 -21.99

[Hugin]

47. Something else just kicked in...

I'm guessing it's my mandatory mutual retirement fund buying at a high... As always. :eyes:

[AnneD]

42. Bernanke proposes new mortgage guarantees .....

Fed chairman tells Congress losses could match 1980s S&L debacle


<snip>
Bernanke proposed that so-called “government sponsored entities” like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae pay mortgage insurance fees to the federal government. These GSEs would then guarantee loans that are larger than the current $417,000 limit on so-called “conforming” mortgages.

“From the federal government's point of view, (the GSEs) would be taking on some credit risk, which you may or may not be willing to do,” Bernanke told members of the Joint Economic Committee in a question-and-answer session.

Bernanke also said that the final cost of the mortgage market meltdown might ultimately reach the level of losses from the savings-and-loan debacle of the late 1980s. Rep. Kevin Brady, R- Texas, asked if estimates of $150 billion in losses are “in the ballpark of what you estimate to be eventually declared.”

“That's in the ballpark,” said Bernanke. “Though I would emphasize that there's no reason to think that that would all be in financial institutions. It's spread around to a lot of investors of different types.”

<snip>


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21694890/


Suggested title of program....No Wealthy Left Behind. I know houses are more expensive in parts of the country but if you think for one minute they are going to give loans like that to a middle class couple anymore.....you have problems more serious than financing a house. We are screwen:eyes:

[displacedtexan]

43. Here's what I think about that Bernanke idea

By raising the jumbo loan limit, doesn't Bernanke hope
that he can postpone the total housing collapse
until the Dems take over?

Then, he can blame Dems for the whole mess.

Just my two cents.

[Roland99]

44. 11:16am - Over 200 pts down and falling

Dow 13,052.41 -213.88
Nasdaq 2,632.89 -63.11
S&P 500 1,453.96 -20.81
Gold $835.00 $-2.50
10 YR 4.22% -0.05
Oil $96.65 $1.19

[Hugin]

45. I only have one thing to say...

Please put away your tray tables and make sure your seat backs are in the up and locked positions.


Aaaaa!

[Roland99]

57. Glad I grabbed a barf bag before they were all gone

[antigop]

50. State Street says media reports about Carina CDOs misleading

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bB5A20AD9-2820-4CD5-BD4E-0121EF909F72%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

State Street Corp. (STT 74.91, -1.98, -2.6%) said Friday media reports regarding its exposure to collateralized debt obligations are misleading. "State Street has no investment in the Carina CDO referenced in the media reports and therefore there is no material financial impact to the company due to the liquidation of these assets," said the financial institution. State Street said it is neither the trustee to nor the underwriter of any of these CDO assets, and a decision to accelerate a CDO and liquidate the collateral portfolio resides directly with the CDO's senior investors.

[Hugin]

51. Although, if the trend with CDOs was increasing the opposite would be true...

:rofl:

Rats... Sinking ships... all that jazz. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

53. FACTBOX-Top issuers of CDOs

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0927796020071109

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Wachovia Corp (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, said on Friday it incurred $1.1
billion of losses in October on mortgage securities, the latest
in a parade of banks hit by the credit crunch.

Wachovia's disclosure comes two days after Morgan Stanley
(MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) announced it had suffered a $3.7 billion loss stemming from trades on U.S. subprime mortgage securities.

In most cases, the banks with the largest exposures were
also among the biggest underwriters of collateralized debt
obligations (CDOs), complex securities that invest in
asset-backed securities. As the quality of underlying mortgages
weakens, demand for CDOs dries up and underwriters are left
holding now-illiquid securities.

<snip>

(value in billions of dollars):

         TOP GLOBAL CDO ISSUERS
Bookrunners                    Value    Market share (%)
1  Merrill Lynch                 $32.176     17.2
2  Citi                           26.578     14.2
3  UBS                            21.151     11.3
4  Wachovia                       12.505      6.7
5  ABN AMRO                       10.849      5.8
6  Goldman Sachs                  10.075      5.4
7  Banc of America                 8.634      4.6
8  Deutsche Bank                   8.231      4.4
9  RBS                             7.154      3.8
10 Lehman Brothers                 6.575      3.5
11 Morgan Stanley                  6.277      3.3

...a bit more at link...

[Ghost Dog]

54. European stocks extend losses on credit fears

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL0989499420071109?rpc=44

PARIS, Nov 9 (Reuters) - European equities slid to their lowest close in seven weeks on Friday as investors continued to dump banking shares on persistent credit worries and techs tumbled on fears over the outlook for the sector.

The FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) index of top European shares unofficially closed down 1.6 percent at 1,511.91 points, after losing as much as 2 percent in late trading.

Europe's benchmark index, down 5.3 percent so far this month, finished the week with a loss of 3.1 percent.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 3 percent, and Ericsson (ERICb.ST: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.6 percent.

"Don't touch the banks, financial services and insurance companies. It's not just a matter of writing off some loans, it's also the ongoing effect of the credit crunch that hits their business," said Pierre Sabatier, strategist at FactSet, in Paris.

[Ghost Dog]

55. FTSE hits lowest close in 7 weeks, banks weigh

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idLTAL0989130720071109?rpc=44

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Britain's leading shares lost 1.2 percent on Friday as an intensifying credit market crisis threatened to further batter financials, while weak metal prices offset the impact of bid talk to take most mining stocks lower.

The FTSE 100 (.FTSE: Quote, Profile, Research) index ended 77 points lower at 6,304.9 points, its weakest finish in seven weeks, taking its losses for the past five sessions to 3.5 percent. U.S. indexes were sharply lower and stocks in continental Europe also slid.

Banks were the heaviest weighted decliners, taking around 18 points off the index, with HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) falling 1.4 percent and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) 3 percent.

Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) at one stage fell 9 percent and its stock was briefly suspended as talk swirled of a $10 billion writedown due to losses linked to the credit market. The bank denied it was about to announce a writedown or lose its top management, and its stock ended 2.4 percent lower.

Insurer Friends Provident tumbled 7.2 percent on a price target cut from UBS and fresh worries over its future strategy after its merger with rival Resolution fell through.

Analysts said that there was too much weighing on the FTSE to allow much of a recovery any time soon.

"Investors are not giving anybody the benefit of the doubt here as far as the banks go -- people are concerned that there's more in the pipeline, and know that the risk attached to the earnings outlook has increased significantly," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin.

/...

[Buttercup McToots]

61. This is nasty...

Is auld Bennie sweatin ye think`?

just wonderin`
:smoke:

[Ghost Dog]

62. It pays to copy what the big boys are doing (Oh, sure...)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071109/bs_ft/fto110920071059562657

Wealth management firms are now finding ways to involve their clients in the investment deals being done by sovereign wealth funds. And, as more capital flows from these state-backed funds into equity and private equity markets, some believe that private investors could benefit from following this institutional money.

Sovereign wealth funds are huge state-controlled investment operations financed by the foreign exchange surpluses of Asian countries, such as Singapore, and the oil revenues of Gulf and Scandinavian countries. According to Morgan Stanley (AMEX:MWD), they have $2,500bn (£1,185bn) of reserves to invest - a sum that is growing rapidly as energy prices continue to rise.

Traditionally, they have favoured fixed-income assets such as US Treasuries, but they are increasingly looking for alternative long-term equity holdings.

For example, the Qatar Investment Authority was the main backer of Delta Two's takeover bid for J Sainsbury and, even though the bid was withdrawn this week, it retained its 25 per cent stake in the retailer. In addition, the Qatari fund and the Dubai Stock Exchange own more than 50 per cent of the London Stock Exchange.

Private-equity groups are attracting sovereign wealth fund investment too. Abu Dhabi's Mubadala has a 7.5 per cent stake in the US management arm of private equity group Carlyle, and the Chinese government has a stake in Blackstone.

So Investec Private Bank believes there are significant opportunities for investors who "keep their finger on the pulse of sovereign wealth funds and their flow of money". It cites the example of Tamasek, the Singapore-backed wealth fund, which has built up a 38 per cent exposure to the emerging markets financial sector on the basis that growth in financial stocks will be linked to the emerging middle class in Asia.

Other private banks are even enabling their ultra-high-net-worth clients to take part in sovereign wealth fund deals.

Members of the Private Capital Partners club run by Citi Private Bank can join the bank's co-investment programme, which aligns with sovereign wealth funds in property and infrastructure deals.

"The bank invests its money, and clients invest with us, so when we make a dollar, you make a dollar," explains Peter Charrington, head of Citi Private Bank in the UK. "We invest as genuine partners. Clients can come in on a single deal, or via a fund. We offer that to a club of clients with with $100m upwards of liquid net worth."

...

But private investors who don't have access to private bank funds may find it a lot harder to follow the money. "The only transparent sovereign wealth fund is the Norwegian one," says Gary Reynolds, chief investment officer of Courtiers. "With the rest, you haven't got a clue what they're about. So there's absolutely no chance of piggy-backing their investments on a micro level."

/...

[UpInArms]

64. "Alarmingly high" risk of systemic shock seen

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0930692320071109?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors may not be prepared for the real possibility of a further downturn in the financial sector, and the risk of a systemic shock to the system is "alarmingly high," analysts at Morgan Stanley said on Friday in a report.

"Over the past several weeks, we have worked ourselves into a full-fledged bearish lather," analysts, including Greg Peters, said in a report.

"At the root of our near-term negativity is the alarmingly high potential for a systemic shock, as well as concerns on the financial system and economic environment due to the derailment of the securitization process," they said.

For years, banks have profited from lending to consumers and then pooling the loans in deals known as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) that were sold to investors, with banks pocketing a fee. The process is known as securitization.

<snip>

"In addition to our above concerns, if we begin factoring in escalating energy prices, the collapsing U.S. dollar and a possible wobbling in the emerging markets, we become even more convinced that the markets aren't braced for the downturn," Morgan Stanley said.

...more...

[David Zephyr]

65. Utilities Up 2% yesterday against the tide and holding their own today against the tide.

n/t

[specimenfred1984]

67. Another exciting episode of "Amazing Late Day Market Recovery"

Brought to you by the makers of Bubbles: The only product you can rely on to falsely inflate anything with just the right blend of gov't and corporate propaganda and then keep it inflated with and endless supply of freshly printed U.S. dollars.

Yes, here at Bubbles, we take pride in all of our products such as "Deregulation", "Trickle Down" and "Outsourcing", assured in the knowledge that regardless of how ludicrous the idea, we can sell it to an ever-increasingly dumbed-down populace.

[Barrett808]

72. Nice.

:hi:

[hatrack]

74. Whoops! So much for the "Amazing Late Day Market Recovery!"

That's gotta sting!

[antigop]

68. State Street confirms liquidation of CDO (geez,....)

OK, here is the latest I can find

http://www.reuters.com/article/coMktNews/idUSN0936290920071109?rpc=11

Financial services firm State Street Corp (STT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said its investors are liquidating as much as $1.5 billion in collateralized debt obligation assets it manages, but said it will not suffer losses, the firm said on Friday.

State Street acts as collateral manager for approximately $6 billion in CDO assets but it does not hold any investments, the firm said. State Street said it is not the underwriter or trustee to any of the CDO assets.

Senior investors must decide on whether to liquidate the collateral and the impact of market declines "resides directly with the note holders of the CDO," State Street said in a statement.

"We're not playing a role in the liquidation," State Street spokeswoman Arlene Roberts said on Friday. "That's up to the investors."

And check this out..from the article:
>>At the same time, S&P slashed its ratings on the State Street-managed Carina CDO by as much as 18 notches, to "CCC-minus" from top "AAA" ratings.>>

[UpInArms]

70. JPMorgan warns of possible Q4 write-downs (on top of $1.3B in 3Q)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0937181320071109

NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co Inc (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said shaky credit markets could trigger more write-downs in the fourth quarter as the bank is exposed to about $50 billion worth of leveraged loans, risky subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations.

JPMorgan did not give any specific potential write-down figures in a quarterly filing. But the bank said unstable market conditions could affect results.

As previously disclosed, the bank's portfolio of held-for-sale leveraged lending commitments stood at $40.6 billion at the end of September. These commitments are hard to hedge against losses as the market for corporate debt used in leveraged buyouts has diminished substantially in recent months.

"Further markdowns could result if market conditions worsen for this asset class," the bank said in the filing.

In the third quarter, JPMorgan wrote down $1.3 billion, after fees, on the leveraged loan portfolio.

...more...

[UpInArms]

71. Waaaaay OT: Man forgets car at gas station

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0932185120071109

BERLIN (Reuters) - A German man forgot his car after filling it up at a petrol station, police said Friday.

<snip>

After the car had sat blocking the pump for about an hour, a woman working at the petrol station became suspicious and alerted authorities.

Officers contacted the 63-year-old from Remscheid, who came straight back to fetch the vehicle. He had paid to fill up the car before walking off.

...more at link...

oops!

[UpInArms]

73. it's all over ('cept for the cryin')

Dow 13,042.74 223.55 (1.69%)
Nasdaq 2,627.94 68.06 (2.52%)
S&P 500 1,453.70 21.07 (1.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.225% 0.048

NYSE Volume 4,004,432,750
Nasdaq Volume 2,896,804,500

blather later -

gotta run!

:hi:

[Roland99]

75. When's the last time it was under 13k?

[Hugin]

76. 4/16 -4/23/07

For those who require such precision. :)

Hasn't been that long.

[NeoConsSuck]

79. August 16th 2007

12,845.78

[Hugin]

81. Oops...

Yes, you are correct. :blush:

Could'a sworn I typed a '9'.

[NeoConsSuck]

83. Don't worry

Me thinks that date is going to be updated next week anyway.

[UpInArms]

78. here's the cryin'

4:25 pm : The weekend couldn't come soon enough for weary market participants who witnessed another tumultuous day of trading on Friday.

Bothered by both rumors and truths surrounding more write-downs for the financial sector and disappointing guidance from another large-cap technology company, the market took a dive in early action. At their lows of the morning, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down 249, 71 and 26 points, respectively.

The tech sector led the retreat, falling as much as 3.0% in the wake of Qualcomm (QCOM 38.10, -1.66) providing earnings guidance for its fiscal first quarter and the fiscal year that was below consensus estimates due to lower handset demand. The indication reignited concerns, which were sparked on Thursday by Cisco's relatively disappointing second quarter outlook, that the tech stocks, and specifically the large-cap tech stocks, had gotten ahead of themselves.

The financial sector followed close behind, falling 2.6% at its worst levels. That decline was driven by an announcement from Wachovia (WB 40.65, +0.35) that its loan loss provision for the fourth quarter would be between $500 million and $600 million in excess of charge-offs. Additionally, Wachovia indicated that the value of its asset-backed CDOs had declined approximately $1.1 billion pre-tax in the month of October alone.

Wachovia's news was accompanied by a disappointing earnings report from Fannie Mae (FNM 49.00, -0.80) and rumors that Barclays (BCS 39.86, -1.48) was going to announce a $10 billion write-down. Barclays denounced the rumors as having no substance.

Strikingly, the financial sector made a spirited rally effort throughout the afternoon. At one point, the financial sector was up 2.4% for the session. The rally was forged in the face of subsequent warnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 42.31, -0.30) and Bank of America (BAC 43.98, +0.48) that potential write-downs would most likely pressure their fourth quarter results.

The turn in the financial sector helped the broader market pare its losses by a significant margin. However, the rally try was rudely interrupted by an aggressive wave of selling in the last half hour of trading that pushed the major indices back toward their worst levels for the day. The financial sector (+0.1%) ended the session basically flat.

The late selling, presumably, was driven by a growing sense of uneasiness in holding positions over the weekend as traders remained cognizant that the headline risk surrounding the financial sector remains high.

In any event, it seemed to be a fitting end to a week that was governed by a negative tone.

Dow component Merck (MRK 55.90, +1.13) managed to buck the broader selling trend as the company's announcement that it would be settling a significant portion of the Vioxx lawsuits for $4.85 billion was viewed by investors with a sense of relief.

Friday's economic data included a report on import prices that was higher than expected, a September trade deficit of $56.5 billion that was better than expected, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for November from the University of Michigan that was measured at 75.0, the lowest level since October 2005.

On balance, the data didn't do much to help the stock market, which stayed preoccupied with the fallout in the financial and technology sectors, and the continued weakness in the dollar.

The Treasury market, once again, was a beneficiary of the stock market's struggle as it was bid higher in a flight-to-safety trade. The 10-year noted ended up 18 ticks, bringing its yield down to 4.21%. DJ30 -223.55 NASDAQ -68.06 SP500 -21.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1988/1025/2.98 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2397/885/1.83 bln

[kineneb]

77. 2 pm-PST breaking news-Sacto.CA:Dunmore Homes files for bankruptcy protection

By Jim Wasserman - [e-mail]
Published 2:05 pm PST Friday, November 9, 2007
http://www.sacbee.com/749/story/481729.html
(reg.req)
"Seeking protection from creditors, Granite Bay home builder Dunmore Homes filed for bankruptcy late Thursday as it tries to restructure its tangled finances.
The move comes six weeks after Michael A. Kane, a Comstock Mortgage senior loan consultant in Sacramento, bought the firm from its second-generation owner Sid Dunmore. It's the first bankruptcy filing by a Sacramento-area home builder as dozens of firms struggle with a downturn in demand and prices for new homes.
Kane, who bought the company Sept. 26, was unavailable for comment Friday.
Dunmore executive John Slaughter said the bankruptcy filing followed "an aggressive move by one creditor to put themselves in a position ahead of others in a lawsuit.
"The only way to head that off was to file bankruptcy," said Slaughter, the firm's vice president of construction and operations. Slaughter declined to name the specific creditor."

...and another one bites the dust...

[TrogL]

80. Wachovia, Capital One, E*Trade warn on credit

(yes, I know there's other threads on this, but I'm referring a newbie to SMW so I'm consolidating)

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0932290920071109?sp=true

The credit crisis deepened on Friday as Wachovia Corp reported a potential $1.7 billion loss on mortgage-related debt, while credit card company Capital One Financial Corp said more customers are missing payments.

...

After markets closed, online brokerage E*Trade Financial Corp withdrew its forecast for 2007 profit of 75 cents to 90 cents per share, citing expected write-downs in its fixed-income holdings. Its shares fell more than 11 percent.

...


Capital One, the largest independent MasterCard and Visa credit card issuer, said its net charge-off rate rose to 3.28 percent in October from the third quarter's 2.86 percent.

This is going to make the Bush-family-powered Savings and Loan fiasco look like a broken piggy-bank.

[TrogL]

82. Loonie Watch

(better late than never)

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD
2007-11-08 Thursday, November 8 1.07492 USD
2007-11-09 Friday, November 9 1.06553 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0670 1.0670 1.0608 1.0634 -0.0020 -0.19% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0622 1.0667 1.0605 1.0648 -0.0001 -0.01% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0624 1.0660 1.0600 1.0646 -0.0002 -0.02% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0799 1.0810 1.0690 1.0643 -0.0003 -0.03% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0642 1.0645 1.0642 1.0638 -0.0005 -0.05% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0730        1.0700 1.0633 -0.0005 -0.05% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0628 -0.0005 -0.05% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007  0.87540 0.87540 0.87540 0.85635 -0.00775  -0.90%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007  0.91160 0.91160 0.91160 0.91160 -0.00855  -0.93%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007  124.260 124.260 123.520 117.465 -1.615    -1.36%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007  1.60300 1.60300 1.60300 1.61005 +0.01510  +0.95%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007   0.7006  0.7029  0.7006  0.7027 +0.0057   +0.82%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007  1.38230 1.38230 1.38230 1.37875 +0.00090  +0.07%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007   163.35  163.35  161.90  162.10 -2.00     -1.22%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007  1.45770 1.45770 1.45770 1.46770 +0.00055  +0.04%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this fall's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Upside targets are hard to project if December extends this fall's rally into new uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0471 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.09. First support is today's low crossing at 106.05 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0471.

Analysis

Sorry, utter chaos at work. New resposibilities, new people to talk to, I've brought in new ideas and suddenly everybody's either getting a clue or going :wtf:.

I can't begin to call what's gonna happen to the loonie, given what's been going on in the rest of today's thread. If everything else were normal, I'd call for a gradual slide to approximately par with today's greenback. The problem is, I'm also calling for today's greenback to go in the toilet, the Euro to go out of its mind, and all the other currencies to do the old "when in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout". So I'm still seeing the loonie as the one stable currency out there hence, short money on the Euro, long money on the loonie, but I'm also seeing more people thinking long, winter coming (think oil prices), and the differences between Canadian and US banking laws, which is why Canada didn't have a S&L crisis back in the day and doesn't have a mortgage loan problem today. Somewhere I saw a listing of the top 20 international banks with exposure to mortgage losses and there isn't one Canadian institution on the list.

So what I'm calling for is a lot of long loonie buys at a fairly stable price somewhere about 2-4 cents below where it is now compared to a basket of currencies excluding the Euro and greenback - making it the de-facto oil currency. If OPEC switches to Euros that's all out the window and I'd be calling for the loonie to fall against the Euro, gain against the greenback and break even with the rest of the commonwealth currencies. If the Chinese start dumping their greenback's I could see them thinking about loonies rather than Euros so I'd see short loonies dropping drastically, long loonies holding even and perhaps the Euro losing ground against the Commonwealth with both the greenback and yen turning into toilet paper.