STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 6

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 6, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 442 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2487 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2207 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2168
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 5, 2007

Dow... 13,543.40 -51.70 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq... 2,795.18 -15.20 (-0.54%)
S&P 500... 1,502.17 -7.48 (-0.50%)
Gold future... 810.80 +2.30 (+0.28%)
30-Year Bond 4.62% +0.02 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.32% +0.03 (+0.63%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Musical Chairs at Citibank

BY ROB KIRBY

It’s out with the old and in with the new, or perhaps better stated, the ‘recycled.’ This past weekend Citibank Chairman, Charles Prince resigned. His replacement is none other than Robert Rubin.

For those of you who with short memories, Mr. Rubin is a former Chair of Goldman Sachs, former U.S. Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration and last but not least – widely credited with the design, implementation and beating-of-the-drum of the heralded U.S. ‘strong dollar policy.’

Since Rubin’s tenure as Treasury Secretary it has become “custom” from that point forward that all who have followed him reiterate this theme – singing the strong dollar mantra.

This dogma of the ‘strong dollar policy’ has come to be understood by many market participants as saying one thing while doing something-else completely opposite.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[trogdor]

28. Still, they got themselves a rock star.

When it comes to finance, there is no bigger rock star than Robert Rubin. If I were the President, I'd fire Helicopter Ben and ask him to take the Fed Chairman's job.

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermint reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise to near $95 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Tuesday on expectations of further declines in U.S. crude oil stocks, fueling concerns that supplies may be inadequate going into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Market participants expect the U.S. Energy Department to report Wednesday that oil inventories fell last week, in part because of a suspension of output at Mexico's state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, a major crude exporter to the United States.

Last week, crude futures jumped more than $4 after figures showed a sharp, unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories for the second week in a row.

-cut-

Analysts think some traders and investors will try to push oil prices to the psychologically important $100 level this week. Crude prices are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on the how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.

-cut-

Crude stocks are expected to fall by 1.6 million barrels, according to the average forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of energy analysts. Gasoline inventories are expected to increase by 200,000 barrels, while distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are likely to have fallen 500,000 barrels, the survey showed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Gas prices jump back above $3 a gallon

NEW YORK - Gasoline prices jumped back above $3 a gallon at the pump Monday even as concerns about the economy and increases in crude supplies sent oil prices lower.

Retail gas prices have been slow to catch up with soaring crude prices, which have gained nearly 39 percent since late August to a trading high of $96.24 on Thursday. Gas prices only started rising steadily in mid-October.

The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 1.5 cents overnight to $3.004, and has jumped almost 25 cents in three weeks, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.

The sharp jump in gas prices could continue if oil keeps surging to new heights.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071105/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_27

[Roland99]

15. Wholesale gasoline topping $2.41/gal.

[DemReadingDU]

18. $3.05 in SW Ohio

[TrogL]

36. Just to make you jealous

Gas in Edmonton went up to $CAN 0.995 last night. Most vendors knock 3.5 cents off at the pump.

[RawMaterials]

51. but thats per liter not gallon

and 1 liter =.264 gallons so your paying just under 4$ a gallon TrogL

[trogdor]

29. six cords of maple scrap.

I had to split a large percentage of it last year because it was too wide for the door of our wood stove. This year, it's well-seasoned and it burns hot as hell and fairly clean.

I ain't freezing my ass off for nobody. I figure since this is lumber yard waste I'm burning, I'm doing the environment a favor since I'm not having anyone cut down another tree so I can run my wood stove. It's cheap, too. I think I paid like $30/cord.

[Warpy]

33. Lucky bugger!

I have a bunch of well seasoned oak and pinon to get me started this year, but I'll probably have to order later on.

People in my part of the inner city laughed at me when I had that woodstove put in 11 years ago when I moved into this place. That stove paid for itself in 3 years and they're not laughing now. In fact, they've all had their own stoves put in.

After the wood pile is gone, I'm toying with the idea of replacing the stove with a pellet or corn stove. The problem with wood is that I'm in a valley, and there are high pollution alert days when I have to switch over to the wheezing old gas floor furnace. Pellets and corn are OK full time.

[Eugene]

35. Oil hits $97 on bombs, demand prediction

Source: Associated Press

Oil hits $97 on bombs, demand prediction

By JOHN WILEN, AP Business Writer
30 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Oil futures jumped to a new record of $97
a barrel Tuesday after bombings in Afghanistan and an
attack on a Yemeni oil pipeline compounded the supply
concerns that have driven crude prices higher in recent
weeks.

Those concerns were further fed by a government
prediction on Tuesday that domestic oil inventories will
fall further this year while consumption rises.

Oil was already up before news of the blasts in northern
Afghanistan that killed 64 people and the attack in Yemen.
Severe weather forecasts for the North Sea, expectations
that domestic crude supplies fell last week and the weak
dollar all contributed to the latest move upward.

While Afghanistan doesn't produce much oil, traders watch
for the possibility that any escalation in the conflict
there between U.S. armed forces and Islamic militants
could spill over into other countries, disrupting oil
supplies out of the Middle East.

-snip-

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071106/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Soros sees "serious" economic correction

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros forecast on Monday that the U.S. economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" after decades of overspending.

"We have borrowed an awful lot of money and now the bill is coming to us," he said during a lecture at the New York University, also adding that the war on terror "has thrown America out of the rails."

-cut-

Famous for his speculative attack on the Bank of England that made him more than $1 billion, Soros declined to nominate which currencies are more vulnerable currently. He also declined to comment specifically on the dollar.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071106/bs_nm/soros_economy_slowdown_dc

[ozymandius]

6. PetroChina Shanghai shares fall 7.7 pct.

SHANGHAI, China - Chinese oil and gas giant PetroChina remains the world's largest business by market capitalization. But its status as the first $1 trillion company was short-lived.

A day after its debut in Shanghai, PetroChina Co.'s shares fell 7.7 percent in early trading to 40.58 yuan ($5.53).

PetroChina became the first company with a $1 trillion market capitalization when its 4 billion shares nearly tripled in value Monday over their initial public offering price. The IPO raised 66.8 billion yuan ($8.94 billion) — a record for a mainland exchange.

The buying frenzy was brief, though, and limited to Shanghai.

Overnight on Wall Street, PetroChina's New York-listed shares fell $32.96, or 13 percent, to close at $222.10. In Hong Kong, where the company is also traded, share valued at about 17.50 Hong Kong dollars are down 11 percent since Friday's close.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071106/ap_on_bi_ge/china_petrochina

[ozymandius]

7. Greenspan, King see more pain for banks, U.S.

LONDON (Reuters) - Central bankers past and present warned on Tuesday of more pain to come for the U.S. economy and that banks worldwide could take several months yet to reveal their full losses from U.S. subprime mortgage lending.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and billionaire investor George Soros said the downturn in the U.S. housing market had yet to take its full toll on growth.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said banks would take some considerable time to flush out total losses related to mass defaults on U.S. mortgages leant to people ill-equipped to pay.

"We have several more months to get through before the banks have revealed all the losses that have occurred, and have taken measures to finance their obligations that result from that, but we're going in the right direction," King told the BBC.

-cut-

Banks in Europe have been hit too and Britain suffered its first full-blown bank run since the 19th century in September when the Bank of England had to step in to offer Northern Rock (NRK.L) funding as "lender of last resort."

King said the decision to offer emergency funding to Northern Rock was taken because of worries over systemic risk.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071106/bs_nm/economy_credit_dc

[ozymandius]

8. Wall Street futures higher; eyes on Bernanke

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose ahead of Wall Street's opening on Tuesday, with a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke likely to take centre stage as corporate and economic data diaries look thin.

At 5:30 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones future was up 0.2 percent and the S&P 500 future and the Nasdaq future were both 0.3 percent higher.

The indicative Dow Jones index, which tracks how the Dow stocks are traded in Frankfurt, was up 0.3 percent.

S&P 500 companies due to report quarterly earnings include food processor and ethanol maker Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.N), brewer Molson Coors (TAP.N) and software services provider Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH.O).

-cut-

Bernanke is scheduled to speak at 1:40 p.m. EST on "Community Development" at a meeting on microfinance in San Antonio, Texas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071106/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc_18

[UpInArms]

9. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.201 Change -0.251 (-0.33%)

Has the US Dollar Hit a Bottom?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Has_the_US_Dollar_Hit_1194303279612.html

The most commonly asked question in the currency market these days is “When Will the US dollar Reach a Bottom?” Every time we have any sort of mild dollar rally like the one we had today, everyone wonders whether this will be the end of dollar weakness. Over the past week, we had relatively positive US economic data suggesting that a bottom may be likely; GDP growth was the strongest since 2006, non-farm payrolls doubled its forecast and contrary to market expectations, service sector activity accelerated according to the non-manufacturing ISM report. However many people remain worried that the US economy still faces problems. The financial sector is in disarray with banks reporting much larger than expected write downs last quarter and CEO’s leaving left and right. Jim Rogers and Bill Gross have both warned that the subprime crisis is far from over and the threat of higher gasoline prices and winter heating costs leave recession a realistic possibility. Yet, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest that even if this is the case, they may not continue lowering interest rates. Fed Governor Mishkin said today that should the latest interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve prove unnecessary, it “could be removed.” Mishkin voted in favor of lowering rates last month, Hoenig was the one who dissented. His comments today reveal more on why the Fed decided to lower rates because according to Mishkin, the “potential costs of inaction outweighed the benefits.” It is becoming increasingly clear that getting the Fed to consent to another interest rate cut will be like pulling teeth. However traders are expecting a rate cut. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a close to 100 percent chance that US interest rates will be 4.25 percent by the end of the year. The situation that we have now is one where traders and investors think that the Federal Reserve needs to continue cutting interest rates but the Fed does not want to do that; therefore whichever party manages to convince the other by December 11th will decide whether the US dollar has bottomed.

...more...

US Fed: On Hold From Now On? Not According To Fed Fund Futures...

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Fed__On_Hold_From_1194341592981.html

The FOMC’s most recent decision to cut rates by 25bp to 4.50 percent was widely expected by the markets, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that rates will be left steady in December as the downside risks to growth are counterbalanced by upside inflation risks. However, the markets appear to be trying to take monetary policy into their own hands, as Fed fund futures are currently pricing in a 62 percent chance of another 25bp cut. So which will it be? It will likely depend very much on how the financial markets fare in coming weeks, especially as banks like Citigroup face massive losses from mortgage and debt-market problems:

FOMC Statement

“Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time…the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully…after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.” – October 31, 2007

Randall Kroszner, Federal Reserve Governor (Voting Member)

“Looking ahead, two considerations suggest that conditions for subprime borrowers have the potential to get worse before they get better. First, all indications are that housing activity is continuing to weaken…. Second, the bulk of resets is yet to come: On average, in each quarter from now until the end of next year, monthly payments for more than 400,000 subprime mortgages are scheduled to undergo their first interest rate reset. That number is up from roughly 200,000 per quarter during the first half of 2007.” – November 5, 2007

Frederic Mishkin, Federal Reserve Board Governor (Voting Member)

“Going into the meeting, I was comforted by the lack of direct evidence to date of serious spillovers of the housing weakness and of tighter credit conditions on the broader economy. But with an unchanged policy interest rate, I saw downside risks to the outlook for growth…The FOMC perhaps could have waited for more clarity and left policy unchanged last week, but I believe that the potential costs of inaction outweighed the benefits, especially because, should the easing eventually appear to have been unnecessary, it could be removed.” – November 5, 2007

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. dollar achieving a new low of 75.993 (under 76)

Last trade 75.993 Change -0.459 (-0.60%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 76.417

Previous Close 76.452 High 76.442

Low 75.987 2007-11-06 09:09:16, 30 min delay

52wk High 85.73 52wk High Date 2006-11-07

52wk Low 76.22 52wk Low Date 2007-11-02

[54anickel]

61. Ugh! 75.503 at around 9:30 pm...suckin' pond scum

Last trade 75.613 Change -0.401 (-0.52%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 75.999

Previous Close 76.452 High 76.020

Low 75.503 2007-11-06 23:43:11, 30 min delay

[mojavekid]

30. Bloomberg: Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro; Fed May Lower Rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aQ71l35gmsOs&refer=currency

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on speculation financial-company losses from U.S. subprime-mortgage defaults will grow, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for a third time this year.

The U.S. dollar declined versus all 16 of the most-actively traded currencies after Fed Governor Randall Kroszner said conditions for subprime-mortgage borrowers may worsen. The European Central Bank is forecast to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this week.

snip...

The U.S. currency dropped to an all-time low of $1.4570 per euro before trading at $1.4568 at 9:14 a.m. in New York, from $1.4469 late yesterday.

The dollar may fall to $1.5260 in six months, Shankar said.

The U.S. currency will trade at $1.48 by March, down from a prior forecast of $1.44, wrote Adam Cole, a London-based analyst with RBC Capital Markets in a note to clients today.

The U.S. currency fell to $1.0782 against its Canadian counterpart, from $1.0714 yesterday, and earlier to a 26-year low of $2.0907 against the pound. The dollar traded at 114.46 yen, from 114.55.

more...

[UpInArms]

10. Dollar hits record lows; shares, gold high

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL0654148820071106

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The dollar hit record lows against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday as concerns persisted about the impact of the credit crunch on the U.S. economy, while shares rebounded and gold hit a 28-year peak.

Risky assets took a beating on Monday after a shock warning from U.S. banking giant Citi (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on billions of loan losses reignited credit concerns and worries about the health of the U.S. economy.

In Asia and Europe investors scooped up recently beaten-down shares but the dollar came under renewed pressure due to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again -- which would lower the yield the currency offers.

"There are renewed concerns about credit problems ... It increases the downside risk to growth and suggests this will be more important moving ahead relative to inflation risks," said Adarsh Sinha, currency strategist at Barclays Capital.

"Sentiment versus the dollar is very, very bearish. As far as the euro/dollar goes... we are seeing momentum selling and it is likely to continue."

...more...

[ozymandius]

11. Soros agrees

But he will not say how much he agrees. That's his business.

[Earth_First]

16. Soros may be mum...

However...

Supermodel Bündchen joins hedge funds in dumping dollars
By Bo Nielsen and Adriana Brasileiro

Gisele Bündchen wants to remain the world's richest model and is insisting she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003995999_celebritydollar06.html

[Hugin]

59. Awwwright!!! Supermodel pics!

More and more to love about the SMW! :D

[JNelson6563]

12. There's no stopping gold, apparently.

I see bright sunny futures on the chart in the OP yet gold's continuing climb belies the notion that there is much confidence in the markets.

Julie

[Buttercup McToots]

13. USD $76.10...Gold $819.50

Has the $ ever been this low?
:wow:

[TalkingDog]

17. Don't know, but I did run across this dollar discussion from '04

http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/149
a little history with this somewhat prescient passage near the end:

If a run on the US dollar were to occur, then the only financial solution would be to create even more dollars (presumably through government borrowing), which of course wouldn't actually solve the problem and would in the long run make matters worse. The currency would become almost worthless, and in the process real wealth (land, factories, and natural resources) would be confiscated and turned over to creditors.

What could cause this to happen? A decision by OPEC to openly sell oil for euros could be a trigger. Some oil is already quietly being sold for euros, and several countries including Iran and Saudi Arabia have floated the possibility of valuing oil against a basket of currencies (meaning, effectively, dollars and euros). The Arab OPEC states have also toyed with an idea that must be equally worrisome to Brussels and Washington: to sell oil for gold (the gold dinar). If and when this happens, the full wrath of America will descend upon the Arab Middle East - and that's why it hasn't happened yet.

The other likely trigger would be a collapse of the US economy from within resulting from a bursting of the mortgage bubble. The recent US economic "recovery" arose almost entirely from low mortgage rates (set ultimately by the Fed), which allowed families to refinance their homes, cash out some of their equity, and use the money for immediate consumption. With oil prices soaring, the Fed will eventually have to raise interest rates steeply in order to contain inflation. But this may cause millions of homeowners to default on their currently low-interest adjustable-rate mortgages. In that event, property values would plummet, and with them would go the stock market and the economy as a whole.

seems like a lot of people saw this coming......

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[DemReadingDU]

22. Previous low $76.22 11/2/07

Today, the low is down to $76.058
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i


going back in history...
The index hit a low of 78.19 in September 1992.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-path-breakdown/story.aspx?guid=%7B493DB507-8D51-487A-A977-5D64C49C0CC4%7D

[DemReadingDU]

20. I think this is lowest for $$$

It could drop below $76
:(

[ret5hd]

26. 75.98 now!

[Buttercup McToots]

14. Gold = $820.50 and moving...

:bounce:

[Buttercup McToots]

19. US Money Center Banks Bankrupt?

Sunday, November 04, 2007
US Money Center Banks Bankrupt?

Legally maybe not, but for all practical purposes, probably yes. Legally, now a days, does not mean too much since there is so much fraud and rotteness in the financial system.

Heck, Ben said "The banking system is healthy" on October 15. Why is he even bothering to make a statement like this? Does he see that others see that the banking system is anything but? Why did he preside over 2 Fed Funds Rate and Discount Window rate cuts? Is he getting us ready for a banking crash? In any event, if the banking system was healthy, nobody would be making statements like that. Making a statement like that is like screaming that the banking system is not healthy.
Did Ben simply panick?

"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth." - Alan Blinder, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve … stated years ago on PBS's Nightly Business Report


Anyways, the US financial/banking sytem is the opposite of healthy:

*
Hundreds of lenders have borrowed a record $US 163 Billion from the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks in August and September.
What comes after a liquidity crises is insolvency.
Looks like more bank runs to come. Countrywide's was just the first in the US.

*
The CEO of Merrill Lynch is gone.
The CEO of Citi might be after this Sunday's "emergency meeting". (gone)

*
Central bank reservers:

EU - $trillions
China - $1.43 trillion
Japan - $923 billion
Russia - $400+ billion
Tiawan - $263 billion
South Korea - $257 billion
India - $249 billion

Ready for it? -> US - $44 billion

*
Bear Sterns attempted to auction off otc derivatives. It called the auction off when bids went to $.30 or so on the dollar. To have finished the auction would have established real world prices for some of these otc derivatives, toxic waste. The BIS (Bank for International Settlement), the central bank for nation central banks, has a world total of notional (contract) value for these things at well over $400 trillion dollars worth. What would a completed auction have done for the value of the other otc derivatives out there in the world?

*
These derivatives are zero sum games like futures and options. If someone looses a dollar, someone has to gain a dollar. They are interest rate sensitive. Interest rates are going up because of the world wide devaluation of government fiat tokens. At some point someone is going to attempt to exorcise their contract, along with a whole lot of others. There are not enough legitimate entities in the world with enough real wealth to pay up on 1/2 of well over $400 trillion dollars worth of these contracts it seems.

*
How are they valued if there is no real world active market with real bids and asks for them?
A computer geek working for the owner of one side of the contract has a "model" he developed which he uses to value his bosses contracts. A computer geek working for the owner of the other side of the contract has a "model" he developed which he uses to value his bosses contracts. It is possible because of this for both sides of the contract to be showing a profit on their books despite this being a zero sum game. Not much integrity left in the world's financial system anymore.

*
Recent estimates of toxic waste value on books from http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq107.pdf:
MARCH 31, 2007, $ MILLIONS
The first column is Assets. The second column is derivatives.
1 JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NA ------------ 1,224,104 ---- 70,817,340
2 CITIBANK NATIONAL ASSN ------------ 1,076,949 ---- 30,069,982
3 BANK OF AMERICA NA ---------------- 1,204,472 ---- 28,535,873
4 HSBC BANK USA NATIONAL ASSN --------- 169,010 ----- 5,649,176
5 WACHOVIA BANK NATIONAL ASSN --------- 518,753 ----- 5,454,856
6 BANK OF NEW YORK --------------------- 83,608 ------- 959,681
7 WELLS FARGO BANK NA ----------------- 396,847 ------- 879,779
8 STATE STREET BANK&TRUST CO ----------- 97,978 ------- 588,222
9 PNC BANK NATIONAL ASSN --------------- 90,405 ------- 244,870
10 SUNTRUST BANK ---------------------- 184,810 ------- 204,160

*
“The gap between future US receipts and future US government obligations now totals $65.9 trillion, a sum that is impossible for the US to reconcile, which means the US is now technically bankrupt.” - St Louis Federal Reserve Review July/August issue 2006

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The coin is a delicate meter of civil, social, and moral changes...
It is the finest barometer of social storms, and announces revolutions."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1860, "Essay on Wealth"

"The best measure of the dollar is that number of dollars it requires to purchase a measure of pure wealth -- an ounce of gold. Gold is both the unit and the messenger. The government and the central bank fear the messenger. The reason why they fear the messenger is obvious -- they are frightened of the message." Richard Russell … March 12, 2007

"...There is no nation on earth powerful enough to accomplish our overthrow. ... Our destruction, should it come at all, will be from another quarter. From the inattention of the people to the concerns of their government, from their carelessness and negligence, I must confess that I do apprehend some danger. I fear that they may place too implicit a confidence in their public servants, and fail properly to scrutinize their conduct; that in this way they may be made the dupes of designing men, and become the instruments of their own undoing."
--Daniel Webster, June 1, 1837

“Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money .” - Sir Josiah Stamp, who became a director of the Bank of England in 1928

Keynes was speaking here about the ability to control money supply.

"By this means government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft."
--British Lord John Maynard Keynes (the father of 'Keynesian Economics' which our nation now endures) in his book "THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE" (1920).

"The other motive is to screw up the entire perception of inflation and its conceptual understanding, a project which fully deserves the claim "Mission Accomplished" to the masses. An entire generation of indoctrinated economists fills the ranks of colleges and universities." - Jim Willie

"This establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President -- Charles A. Lindbergh, Sr. , 1913

"Neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities, intrinsically, a 'dollar' bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely book entries."
-- Modern Money Mechanics Workbook, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1975

"Every Congressman, every Senator knows precisely what causes inflation...but can't, support the drastic reforms to stop it because it could cost him his job."
-- Robert A. Heinlein, Expanded Universe

"During Greenspan's tenure, America was transformed from the world's largest creditor to its greatest debtor, from the world's mightiest industrial power to a second-rate service provider, and from a nation of responsible savers to one of reckless spenders,"
- Peter Schiff, President, Euro Pacific Capital

John Conolly, treasury secretary in the Nixon Administration,
put it bluntly in 1971 when the US decoupled the dollar from gold:
“The dollar is our currency but their problem.”

A communique sent from the Rothschild investment house in England to its associates in New York noted, "The few who understand the system. . . will either be so interested in its profits or so dependent on its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending . . will bear its burdens without complaint."

Bernanki is just a puppet. "Weimar Bernanke", the man has no business experience,
no banking experience, no financial market experience,
yet is named to the most important central bank post on earth. - Jim Willie CB

"Those who create and issue money and credit direct
the policies of government and hold in the hollow of their hands
the destiny of the people." - Reginald McKenna, Chancellor of Exchequer, England

"We have gold because we cannot trust governments…Paper money
is a great aid to politicians: it makes it possible for them to confiscate
the savings of the people by manipulation of inflation and deflation".
- President Herbert Hoover

Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation. - Ben Bernanke remarks before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C. November 21,
2002

"Unconstitutional or not, the individual income tax (or any other tax, for that matter) will not by itself drive this country's economy to collapse tomorrow, next month, or next year. But the monetary and banking systems will--if not tomorrow, surely someday soon. And the resulting chaos will offer the occasion and excuse for the General Government to impose a police-state tyranny beside which the worst excesses of today's tax Gestapo will resemble Jeffersonian libertarianism." - April 9, 2005, Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr., Ph.D., J.D., author of Pieces of Eight and coauthor of Cra$hmaker with Trader Vic
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Would you believe that I used to compute M3 myself, and that the Fed will be short handed after I retire?" - Jesse's Cross Roads Cafe http://www.geocities.com/arthurcutten/jesse.html


Sure enough! The Fed hasn't published M3 in over a year now.

Here is an interesting tidbit:
From BusinessWeek Online

Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules,

“President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations. Notice of the development came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye.”

There goes the transparency the US markets used to be known for.


Financially/economically, the US is a shell of it self. The opposite of what it used to be. No wonder the shares (US dollar) of USA, Inc. are making new historic all time lows. Gold is the protector of private wealth for those in the US. Too bad most in the US do not realize this. They will one day when it will be too late because they will be broke therefor unable to buy gold and silver.


The object of a bank run: GOLD

http://goldprice.org/bob/2007/11/us-money-center-banks-bankrupt.html

[Spazito]

27. Wow, great post, very interesting read!

Thanks for posting this!

[Buttercup McToots]

21. USD $76.06 @ 8:00 am

mmmmm

[DemReadingDU]

23. Whitney: Stock Market Mayhem and Bush’s Moral Swamp

11/5/07 Stock Market Mayhem and Bush’s Moral Swamp By Mike Whitney

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve dropped its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% citing ongoing weakness in the housing sector. As expected, the stock market rallied and the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 137 points. Unfortunately, Bernanke’s “low interest” stardust wasn’t enough to buoy the markets through the rest of the week.

On Thursday, the hammer fell. The Dow plummeted 362 points in one afternoon on increasing fears of inflation, a slowdown in consumer spending, a steadily weakening dollar and persistent problems in the credit markets. By day’s end, the Fed was forced to dump another $41 into the banking system to forestall a major breakdown. This is the most money the Fed has pumped into the financial system since 9-11 and it shows how dire the situation really is.

Why do the banks need such a massive infusion of credit if they are as “rock solid” as Bernanke says?

<lots more>

What is striking is how the new “structured finance” paradigm replicates a political system which is no longer guided by principle or integrity. It is not coincidental that the same flag that flies over Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib flutters over Wall Street as well. Nor is it accidental that the same system that peddles bogus, subprime tripe to gullible investors also elevates a “waterboarding advocate” to the highest position in the Justice Department. Both phenomena emerge from the same fetid moral swamp—Bush’s America.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18668.htm

[specimenfred1984]

40. Excellent article

someone should send it over to Tim Wood so he can lie about nothing being manipulated again.

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. I use to think that only the Cubbies could break my heart so badly, but with the folks on the judicial committee switching their votes FOR Mukasey (Schummer and Feinstein)...the Dem's are continuing to break my heart. esp. when Feinstein said that she switched because that was the best that they could get from Bush.:wtf:
The AG is an appointee and the career folks underneath do the real work. We do not need a rubber stamp and frankly-the career folks have SOME accountability. If this guy can't call water boarding by it's rightful name:torture, how can we be sure he understands what the Constitution says. Would you put a fox in charge of the hen house because he had a bushy tail 4 paws and looks like a dog....just because you can't find a watch dog. Unbelievable.....

I took a step yesterday and took the immigration point test for Canada. As an RN I scored high and as a musician speaking multiple languages-hubby didn't do to badly either. We got some points knocked off for age, but we still did ok. It gives us something to think about.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears....

[TrogL]

38. We need nurses and musicians in Edmonton and Calgary

You'd need to check to see if your nursing credentials are valid.

I'm trying to get a band going and need lead guitarist and some vocals. I've got keyboards, PA, bass player, female lead singer.

[AnneD]

41. Actually ....

they give temporary work permits to some areas like Calgary etc. And once you get there, I think it is fairly easy to get the ball rolling.
Hubby plays a wicked sitar, a great instrument....but it can't help you too much I am afraid.

[kineneb]

44. need classical musicians?

or piano teachers? Church organists?

I looked over the scoring, and did ok. But I couldn't figure out the education part... have BA and almost MA here...

[TrogL]

49. I know of at least one church gig

Not the greatest money, but it's something.

The market's wide open for piano teachers. I know several who are working steady.

If you're really good vocally, there is one professional choir but auditions aren't 'til next spring.

Both cities have professional orchestras, but I don't remember any openings.

[mojavekid]

31. Bloomberg: Gold Climbs to 27-Year High as Dollar, Crude Oil Reach Records

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=amTSEJYNlozs&refer=commodities

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose, extending a rally to the highest price since 1980, after crude-oil reached a record and the dollar fell to the lowest ever against the euro. Silver also gained.

Gold has rallied 29 percent this year, heading for the seventh straight annual gain, as a weak dollar and record energy costs sparked demand for a hedge against inflation. Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has risen 32 percent this year to a record 598 metric tons.

snip...

Silver futures for December delivery rose 49 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $15.27 an ounce. Before today, the metal climbed 14 percent this year.

The dollar reached $1.4556 against the euro, the lowest ever. Crude-oil futures traded as high as $96.44 a barrel, a record.

more...

Nice to see Silver finally moving, but has some catch up to do.......

[Ghost Dog]

32. Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK06Dj01.html

... I pose the following question for contemplation: How much would the Chinese government, with their $1.4 TN stockpile of chiefly dollar reserves, be willing these days to pay for the necessary energy resources to sustain their economic boom and stem social unrest?

The legacy of years of runaway U.S. Credit excess includes many trillions of dollar liquidity balances circulating around the globe. Chinese reserves, for example, have inflated almost seven-fold in just five years. On the back of unprecedented global Credit and liquidity excess, energy, food, precious metals and other commodities now attract intense demand and virtually unlimited purchasing power. Our economy – our financially stretched consumers and vulnerable businesses - will now have no option other than to bid against highly liquefied competitors for a lengthening list of resources. Failure to recognize that this situation is a major inflationary problem is disregarding reality. The same can be said for suggesting that we can continue on this current course - with massive Current Account Deficits and rampant speculative financial outflows to the world fueling myriad dangerous Bubbles and maladjustment on an unprecedented global scale.

Today's backdrop is unique. There are literally trillions of dollars of liquidity slushing around the world keen to hold "things" of value. Liquidity sources include the massive central bank reserve holdings as well as funds at the disposal of the sovereign wealth funds. Importantly, the more apparent becomes U.S. financial fragility, the keener they are to stockpile real "things". There is as well a global leveraged speculating community, in control of trillions of liquid purchasing power. The speculators are also keen to acquire (non-dollar) "things" as opposed to our securities. Indeed, it should be noted that this is the Federal Reserve's first attempt at reflation where U.S. securities are not the speculators' or foreign central banks' asset class of choice.

Not only is the pool of potential global buying power unparalleled in scope. It is fervidly attracted to tangible assets - as opposed to U.S. securities - and is highly speculative in character. At the same time, an unwieldy global boom is stoking unprecedented demand in China, India, Asia generally, and the other "emerging" markets including Russia and Brazil. Throw in various weather related issues and energy production constraints and the prospect for some very serious bottlenecks and shortages has developed.

Granted, these dynamics have been evolving for some time now. What has changed is the speed and breadth of financial crisis enveloping the U.S. financial system. When I read of mounting energy and food shortages and witness the unfolding run on the U.S. financial sector, as an analyst I must contemplate the likelihood we have entered a uniquely unstable monetary environment at home and abroad. In short, the backdrop exists where incredible dollar liquidity flows could be released (from myriad sources) upon key things (notably energy, food, metals and commodities) already in severe supply and demand imbalance. Again, how much are the Chinese willing to pay for energy? The Russians for food? The Indians for commodities in general? How much will investors be willing to pay for precious metals as a store of value? How aggressively will the speculators "front run" all of them? Can the Fed afford to continue fueling this bonfire?

/plenty more...

Nb. I would at least like to see "a clean, sustainable environment" added to that list of "key things" that should be in highest demand, under the circumstances, although without the speculators, please...

[TrogL]

34. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-09-25 Tuesday, September 25 0.9995 USD
2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD
2007-09-28 Friday, September 28 1.00412 USD
2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0790 1.0790 1.0771 1.0778 +0.0058 +0.54% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0785 1.0827 1.0767 1.0825 +0.0105 +0.98% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0784 1.0821 1.0784 1.0821 +0.0100 +0.93% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0515 1.0552 1.0511 1.0719 +0.0026 +0.24% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0708 1.0708 1.0708 1.0716 +0.0026 +0.24% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0501 1.0550 1.0500 1.0711 +0.0026 +0.24% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0055 1.0060 1.0050 1.0706 +0.0026 +0.24% 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007  0.87540 0.87540 0.87540 0.85630 -0.00175 -0.20%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007  0.91765 0.91765 0.91765 0.91765 -0.00030 -0.03%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007  122.890                 122.890 +0.915   +0.75%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007  1.60350 1.60350 1.60350 1.57275 -0.00140 -0.09% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007  0.69710 0.69890 0.69710 0.69890 +0.00205 +0.29%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007  1.35700 1.35700 1.35700 1.35095 -0.00575 -0.43%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007   165.69  166.05  165.69  166.05 +1.21    +0.73%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007   1.4577  1.4577  1.4577  1.4577 +0.0100  +0.69%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends this fall's rally into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project as December extends this fall's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0400 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0832. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0540. Second support is the 20-day moving average at crossing at 1.0400.



Analysis

This is from October 31st (the last time I saved my template file).

Reminder: the loonie crossed $1.05 briefly yesterday, earlier than I predicted.

Today is November 6th. We broke $1.08. AFAIK the last time currencies were this far out of control it was WW II and the German people were carrying their marks in wheelbarrows. In a normal world, if a currency changed its value by a percentage point it'd be front-page news. Now the drive-in guy's saying "ho, hum, what's a few percentage points among friends".

Note also that the loonie gained against all the other major currencies, even the Euro.

Gas jumped 9 $CANcents at the pump overnight. I got lucky and found a station at the old price. I've been watching oil prices go up and up and nothing happening at the pumps so I assumed it was that the loonie was tracking with $OIL so we were breaking even. If we've jumped, then I'm :scared: to think what's happening down south. Harper must be concerned as well - he dropped by the Oil Sands for a visit.

I noticed somebody dusted off the old Invade Canada plan in GD(?). I'm starting to wonder if it's a real option - everything else has gone to shit for Dubya. Remember it's also about water - the Great Lakes, various rivers, and sovergnity of the Arctic. Just make sure the fire suppression system is working at the White House. Remember what happened last time.

[SidDithers]

50. Fire suppression system!...

:rofl:

thanks for the updates. We're planning a trip to MickeyWorld with the kids in April 2009. I'm starting to think I should book it now. An 8% discount sounds pretty good.

Sid

[TrogL]

53. Closing numbers - holy crap

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0790 1.0840 1.0771 1.0840 +0.0120 +1.12%  
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0785 1.0846 1.0767 1.0837 +0.0117 +1.09%  
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0784 1.0825 1.0784 1.0838 +0.0117 +1.09%  
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0515 1.0552 1.0511 1.0836 +0.0117 +1.09%  
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0708 1.0708 1.0708 1.0833 +0.0117 +1.09%  
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0501 1.0550 1.0500 1.0828 +0.0117 +1.09%  
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0055 1.0060 1.0050 1.0823 +0.0117 +1.09% 
 

Blather

The December Canadian Dollar gapped up and closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended this fall's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project as December extends this fall's rally into new uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0401 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 108.46. First support is today's gap crossing at 107.21 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0542.


Analysis

I'm wondering if I should put Canadian immigration information into my template. It's a bloodbath down there, hopefully not literally.

[TrogL]

57. Put it in my sigline instead

[Spazito]

60. Geez, it is at $1.09 now (6:20 MDT)

I am virtually speechless.

[Amonester]

62. Getting closer to $1.10 by the minute now! (01:36)

NHL players will wanna get paid in loonies pretty soon...
!

[antigop]

37. Regulators approve new banking rules

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/784c02bcec0bff76c99358141c2e553a.htm

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has approved a new rule intended to give large banks more flexibility in managing credit risk and calculating their credit reserves.

The rule, which has already been approved by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, implements international standards included in the so-called Basel II framework.

The rule allows banks to calculate specific credit risks for different loans within the same class of credit, OCC officials have said.

Under current rules, banks generally must assign the same risk and reserve the same amount of capital for all mortgages, for example, whether they are extended to borrowers with weak credit or strong credit. The new regulation would allow banks to calculate different risk levels among the mortgages, corporate loans, and other types of credit they extend, OCC officials said.

[DemReadingDU]

39. Fleckenstein: The Fed digs us a deeper hole

11/5/07 Was last week's interest-rate cut an act of desperation? Absolutely. Meanwhile, it's obvious that using an applause meter to run the central bank is a terrible idea.

No shortage of ink was spilled last week about the Fed's quarter-point rate cut. Yet none of it acknowledged the big elephant in the room: Why in the hell was the central bank easing the federal funds rate with (1) the dollar at a new low, (2) oil at $90, (3) gold at $800, (4) virtually every commodity on the planet going wild and (5), despite government statistics to the contrary, inflation raging?

<lots more>

"Introducing the xera"

Thanks to the suggestion put forth by a reader of my daily column, I have come up with the new name for our currency. Henceforth, it shall be called the xera. That's a combination of Xerox, for the piece of Xerox paper that it is; lira, which in the past was one of the world's chronically weak currencies; and, most importantly, the fact that it sounds like zero. That is ultimately where the xera is headed.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheFedDigsUsADeeperHole.aspx

[AnneD]

42. How you can prepare for a recession

With oil prices surging and the Fed cutting interest rates to help the ailing housing market, some readers are starting to get a little nervous about the U.S. economy. While the stock market seems relatively calm and many economists say they don’t see a downturn on the horizon, it doesn’t hurt to consider the possibility that a recession may be coming. Think of it like getting ready for a storm: you may wind up with some extra batteries on hand if it doesn’t hit. But you won’t be left in the dark if it does.

<snip>take a deep breath. Now hold it in. Hold it. OK, now let go. Repeat until calm. It's important to try to stay calm - because fear is our worst enemy in an economic downturn. When consumers stop spending and businesses stop hiring and start laying pepole off, that can make the situation much worse.

Second: It’s not clear yet that we’re headed for a recession — though economists who make a living watching out for one will admit that you sometimes don’t know you’re in a recession until after it’s started.

Third: You’re not crazy to be a little nervous. The housing market, especially once-booming states like yours, is already in a “slump” that by most measures would have to be called a recession. And housing has led the U.S. economy into most of the recessions in the past 50 years. On the other hand, the unemployment and inflation rates — the sum of which came to be known as the “misery index” in the darkest days of the Stagflatin’ 70s — remain historically low.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21367186/

Not a bad article...general info type of stuff.

[Spazito]

43. There is one glaring point that is missing from this article, imo,...

and that is the falling dollar. There is no discussion about the effects of the falling dollar on the cost of goods, commodities, imported into the US and how that falling dollar reduces the desirability to invest in the US, etc.

To leave that out, imo, is, in essence, misleading the public as to how bad it really is.

[AnneD]

45. But then again, there is not much we can do at this point....

but not everyone will be affect the same way. Those in certain industries will be hit harder, some won't be hit at all, and some will benefit. It will take a bit more saved up, but if you have 6 months of income saved up, you have choices. If you have prepared and reduced your debt, you stand a better chance of surviving a down turn-no matter what your dollar is worth.

Now, because I have prepared in the basics, I have the luxury of preparing and securing my investments against the dollar's drop. If someone is smart enough to start preparing for a recession, they'll start looking in other areas too.

I called my brother last night. Because he has been prepared, he picked up some great farm equipment for a song at an auction. He is branching out into bio diesel-to make his farm totally self sufficient. That is his goal-total self sufficiency and off the grid. He has geese, chickens, rabbit, and goats in addition to a few head of cattle. This is in addition to the crops he grows. He does very well no matter where the dollar lands.

[Spazito]

46. I agree, there isn't much one individual can do, my criticism was

with the article itself, not mentioning the fall of the dollar at all seemed to me to be a failing in it's comprehensiveness given one could, if they have the ability, to invest in foreign currencies, Treasury bills, etc, which would also provide a cushion if the worst happens.

[AnneD]

47. It's funny.....

they don't give the falling dollar much ink now in most news programs-the housing bubble gets more. I don't think the article was geared for that much detail, just general info. How many people in the general public have even one month's savings and how many just live pay check to pay check. I think it may have been more for the beginners-which is ok. You have to start some where.

I had lunch this weekend with some Canadian friends. The main topic of our conversation was the loonie vs the dollar. They were as shocked as we were.:wow:

[DemReadingDU]

54. But this is America, we use dollars

We use dollars to buy groceries and gas. I see the dollar falling lower and lower every day. What are Average Americans going to do when the dollar becomes worthless? Most Americans can't move to another country, we can't convert our meager savings to Euros. We need dollars to buy the necessities. What is going to happen to all of us average Americans? Maybe we will have to use the barter system.

[Spazito]

58. I am totally shocked as well!

For it to be at $1.08 at close today just blows my mind. I knew it would hit parity before the close of the year but honestly thought it would, once hitting parity, hold there with relatively little significant movement. I no longer have any sense of where it is going to go and how fast it will go there, up or down.

I see your point re the article, it certainly did provide some decent suggestions in a general sense.

[AnneD]

48. Houston quarterly housing starts down 28 percent

<snip>

Developers started 9,725 single-family homes during the quarter, a 28 percent drop from the same period in 2006, according to Houston-based Metrostudy, a research and consulting firm for the homebuilding industry. Closings during the quarter fell 10.5 percent to 11,302 units.

Much of the slowdown has been in the segment of homes priced below $150,000. Houston-area builders have scaled back on construction of entry-level housing or are getting out of that segment altogether, said Mike Inselmann, president of Metrostudy.

"The downward trend of new home construction has continued through the third quarter of 2007 as builders work to reduce inventories and lay the groundwork for market stabilization that likely will not occur until the first half of 2008," he said in a statement Tuesday.

<snip>

These buyers are less sensitive to interest rate increases and generally have higher credit scores than those needing subprime and exotic loans, which diminished significantly after the credit crunch began earlier this year.

Starts for Houston-area housing priced below $150,000 dropped 36 percent in the third quarter, while starts for homes more than $225,000 increased 6.5 percent.





http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5277714.html

This is what developers did in the RE bust in 87. They will build these McMansion but when we hit a down turn, folks will be screwed.:eyes:

[Acadia Blue]

52. Not to worry W is on the job, and will pump up glorious Texas.

[AnneD]

56. Well, his brother Neal....

'helped' with the S&L crisis which brought on the RE bust here in Houston. Took us 7 years to recover.

[UpInArms]

55. ending numbers - Wall St soars while Main Street sinks

Dow 13,660.94 117.54 (0.87%)
Nasdaq 2,825.18 30.00 (1.07%)
S&P 500 1,520.27 18.10 (1.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.357% 0.039

NYSE Volume 3,879,160,250
Nasdaq Volume 2,545,161,000

4:25 pm : Credit concerns were set aside on Tuesday as the stock market rallied in the face of rising oil prices, which rose 3.3% to $97.10 per barrel at their high for the session.

Oil prices fell back some to end the trading session at $96.70. Their upward move was fueled by multiple factors, including anxiousness that the government's weekly inventory report on Wednesday will show another decline in crude stockpiles. A bombing in Yemen that shut down an oil pipeline, a forecast for inclement weather in the North Sea, and the Energy Information Administration boosting its full-year 2008 U.S. crude price forecast from $73.50 per barrel to $79.92 per barrel also played a part.

In turn, continued weakness in the dollar index, which slipped 0.5% to $76.04, served as another buying catalyst for commodity traders. The weakness in the greenback, which sparked inflation chatter, remained a healthy prop for gold prices, which hit a 27-year high at $827.20 per ounce. Gold futures for December delivery settled up 1.6% at $823.40.

With the jump in commodity prices, it was little surprise to see the energy (+2.7%) and materials (+2.5%) sectors score the largest percentage gains in Tuesday's trading. Airlines, meanwhile, were among the weakest performers as they were grounded by the spike in oil prices.

The most influential mover of the day was the financial sector (+1.7%) as it garnered a bargain hunting bid with Goldman Sachs (GS 223.16, +4.77) again denying rumors that it is going to announce a write-down. Citigroup (C 35.08, -0.82) remained a conspicuous laggard as participants continued to show little interest in the stock, which is down 37% year-to-date.

Conversely, there remained a good deal of interest in the large-cap technology issues with many of the usual suspects leading the buying brigade. Cisco (CSCO 34.08, +1.00) was a headliner in this respect as investors were feeling optimistic ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday. Other luminaries included Google (GOOG 741.79, +16.14), Apple (AAPL 191.79, +5.61), Intel (INTC 27.49, +0.65) and Oracle (ORCL 22.83, +0.76).

The latter stock was added to the Americas Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs. In turn, Goldman Sachs removed Microsoft (MSFT 36.41, -0.32) from the same list, a move that contributed to its relative weakness.

There weren't any economic reports today, yet the Treasury market got knocked back a bit by the stock market rally that saw the major indices close at their best levels of the session. DJ30 +117.54 NASDAQ +30.00 SP500 +18.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1279/1725/2.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1156/2099/1.50 bln

3:35 pm : Since the last update, the major indices have had a nice spike. As has been the case of late, rising crude prices are not hindering the stock market from advancing.

The financial sector (+1.3%) is playing a large role in the advance, although it continues to be the main laggard year-to-date. Before today's open, the sector was down 15.6% year-to-date in response to the credit turmoil.

Looking towards tomorrow, there are several economic releases, although none are typically market movers. The weekly government energy report is set to be released tomorrow at 10:30. Crude prices rallied last week after the report showed a substantial draw when a slight build was expected.

97 companies are set to report their earnings after the close today and before tomorrow's open. DJ30 +79.83 NASDAQ +19.07 SP500 +12.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1510/1468/2.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1462/1762/1.11 bln

3:00 pm : The major indices have drifted slightly lower, but continue to trade near their best levels of the session.

The Amex Airline Index (-3.5%) is a notable pocket of weakness. The drop is not surprising, as airlines are typically sensitive to crude prices. Also of note, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is lagging the broader market.

A Reuters article states that Citigroup's (C 34.79, -1.11) CFO Todd Thomson says that Citi's strategy is sound, and that there is no need to break up the company. The article also states that Thomson feels he has the right qualifications to be the CEO, but has not been asked.DJ30 +48.69 DJTA 0.3% NASDAQ +8.71 SP500 +8.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1582/1383/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1463/1741/998 mln