Source:
The PoliticoBy: David Paul Kuhn
Oct 31, 2007
Republican popularity at its lowest level in a generation, huge study by Pew reveals.
(Composite image by Politico.com)
One year before voters go to the polls to select the next president, the Republican Party is as weak as it has been in a generation, a detailed new poll suggests. In a hypothetical match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, bloc after bloc of traditionally Republican voters break for Clinton: She wins the South. She polls evenly with voters who attend church at least once a week. She splits families with a household income above $100,000. She loses rural voters and men — but only by a narrow margin. All are constituencies Republicans have dominated for decades; George W. Bush won each by double-digit margins.
The findings from The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press remain preliminary, considering even the primaries are still two months off. But Pew questioned an unusually large number of voters to try to paint the most accurate picture possible of where the presidential contest stands today.
Should the race continue down its current trajectory, the poll finds Clinton defeating Giuliani by eight percentage points. Other recent polls, however, have placed Giuliani ahead of Clinton in a head-to-head race. But those polls predict Clinton would beat Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney. And Barack Obama would defeat Giuliani — though narrowly — according to at least four polls taken in October....
In July 2004, the Democratic Party had a slight lead as the party “better able to manage the federal government” and as the party that is “more honest and ethical.” Today Democrats lead both categories by double-digit margins. By even larger margins, Democrats are seen as the party “more concerned about people like me” (by 29 percentage points) and the party best able to bring about “needed change” (by 22 percentage points). Other polling has also showed that for the first time in decades Americans now see the two parties as equally qualified to face down national security threats — erasing the “security advantage” Republicans have long relied on....
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About a third of voters call themselves Democrats and a quarter call themselves Republicans — but when independents’ leanings are added to the mix, roughly half of Americans lean Democratic and only 36 percent lean Republican. That Democratic advantage in party identity is larger than at any time since tracking began in 1990....
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