Bush's Support Building (Clark Ties Dean)

[RUexperienced]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-01-06-bush-poll-usat_x.htm

Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who pulled away from the Democratic field in early December, has lost his lead over No. 2 Wesley Clark, the former NATO commander. Dean slipped from a 21-point gap to 4 points, effectively a tie within the margin of error.


If Dean is the Democratic nominee, the poll finds, Bush beats him by 22 percentage points among likely voters. Against an unnamed Democrat, Bush wins by 17 percentage points.

Dean's slip and uncertainty among Democrats suggests that the nomination fight is still fluid. The first key contests are precinct caucuses Jan. 19 in Iowa and primary balloting Jan. 27 in New Hampshire.

Other than Clark, Democratic candidates made few gains in the USA TODAY poll in the past month.

Voters view Clark more favorably than Dean, fueling charges by the other candidates that Dean cannot beat Bush. Clark is the only Democrat with an overall positive rating.

Just 28% of adults view Dean favorably; 39% view him unfavorably. Clark rates 37% favorable and 26% unfavorable.


----------------------------

Maybe it is gonna be Clark.

[dolstein]

1. A 39% unfavorable rating? Stick a fork in this guy, he's done

NT

[David__77]

16. Really?

I don't think it's terribly significant. I'd be more interested in seeing a demographic breakdown on that opinion. If 90+% of the negatives were from self-identified Republicans, then I'm not extremely concerned.

[Alexander]

2. Maybe we shouldn't pay attention to every little bullshit poll.

Every other poll I've seen has Dean way ahead. I don't think the Clark supporters should start celebrating yet.

[CatWoman]

4. Hi, Alexander

How's your kitty?

:hi:

[Democrats unite]

7. Why is it only polls favorable to Dean are accepted as fact?

eom

[Alexander]

47. Because there are many more of them?

I've seen ONE poll - this one - that has Clark tied with Dean. Every other one has Dean way ahead of Clark.

Should I just put all my faith in this poll and ignore every other poll I've seen?

[parasim]

42. So then...

... is "every other poll" you've seen a "little bullshit poll"? or did you just decide now that just polls favoring Dean are not little bullshit polls?

[Alexander]

49. This poll is bullshit, because it is ONE poll.

Once more polling companies start reporting that "Clark is tied with Dean", then I'll start believing it.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. You do realize that the CNN/Gallup poll is a lie?

There's about the fourth thread here...

Hawkeye-X

[Dookus]

5. yes...

I keep seeing people make that claim, but I don't quite understand it. Is it a "lie" because it disagrees with another poll conducted recently?

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. No dookus it is not a lie because it disagrees with dean

it is a lie becasue this data has been manipulated as many polls with Bush.

See they want a certain result, then they poll and poll and poll until they get their result

This is what happened to me earlier last year

Tehy called

It was gallup,

tehy asked the usual questions, then they reached the, do you support the US Policy in Iraq... I said no... they hung up the phone'

Now I was "ideal" for them, a Navy Wife, living in Navy Housing, what are the odds that I would have the gumption to say no?

You think MY I DO NOT SUPORT THE LIAR IN CHIEF... was counted?

I betcha it was not

So this is not about Clark or dean, but about gallup... they have been massaging numbers since oh... at least 2001... and by the way, the Germans did the same by '38 and after that they stopped bothering.

[Dookus]

9. in college...

I made some money conducting polls. There was usually a "tree" of questions.

perhaps the poll you were called for only was interested in responses from people who supported the war. Maybe they were trying to gauge the change in opinions of people who supported the war at the beginning, compared to the time they called you.

I don't know that for a fact, but I wouldn't automatically presume every gallup poll is a lie based on your one anecdote.

I'm still trying to figure out how people are just so damned SURE this poll is fake.
on edit:

I never accused anybody of thinking the poll was a lie because it disagreed with Dean. I asked if it was because it disagreed with a DIFFERENT poll that was more favorable to Dean.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. Insofar as Gallup is concerned

many of us are for the most part smelling a rat

Now the most trustworthy pollster, at least in my opinion, is Zogby

By the way, it was the nature of the hang up that raised my suspicions, as I have gotten to play before, and there was not even teh thank you, which is customary... there was somethign really odd about the poll.

I can't put my finger on it

the other thing that raises my awareness taht soemthign is going on is, quite honestly the sudden 15 point swing... that is the other reason why I smell a rat.

As I said, there is wide spread suspicion of Gallup.. notice nobody else is mentioned, just gallup.

[aquart]

21. I take Zogby internet polls.

The questions are VERY weighted, deeply slanted. They are definitely geared for whatever answer they want.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. Yep it depends on WHO paid them

but they are far less egregious than oh Gallup

And that is saying a lot

[depakid]

17. If you've been to college

done polling and taken any decent stats class, you'll see how EASY it is to manipulate the result simply by changing the wording, the order of the questions or allowing bias into the sample. Moreover, given CNN & Gallup's right wing agenda (and track record) people would be stupid NOT to question anything coming from those organizations.

[Dookus]

20. I'm not saying

that it isn't possible to falsify this. But I see people positing it as a known truth, without providing any evidence.

I don't see what one of the oldest, most established polling companies in the world has to gain by publishing outright lies.

You're well within your rights to be suspicious, but I think automatically assuming it's a conspiratorial anti-Dean lie is unwarranted.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. I repeat this is not Dean

this is about reelecting George Bush... and tehy willg to ANY
extent, you raelize that VMS was taken out of business in 2000

That was teh older company to project winners.. they did not play ball

And if you think Gallup has nothing to gain, I have a bridge to sell you

Look at one point Gallup was trusty, but ever since 2000 their polls have been ALL OVER THE PLACE and tend to be teh higher for Bush....

Check the Polkatz site and see what I mean for yourself

here is the graphic for you

[depakid]

33. Taking an accurate poll is tricky business

and probably futile at this stage of the game. About the only thing that they are valid for at all is showing trends, which they may or may not do do with any reliability. Personally, I no more believe poll results that I'd like to see than I do results like this one and I base that on having worked with and studied them over the years. Gallop may indeed be old and established, but they have a poor track record, they use comparatively shoddy methodology and have a history of right wing favoritism going back decades. Of course, that doesn't mean they publish outright lies- it only means that they lack any credibiliy... especially when come up with 22% point differences in a bitterly polarized electorate!

[tabasco]

46. I was called by Zogby once.

After I responded total disapproval to everything Bush had done, the interviewer started YAWNING loudly on the phone. I got pissed and hung up. Might be nother tactic. It seemed quite intentional.

[fearnobush]

45. This supports the USA Today Lie notion...

<http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=430>

[goobergunch]

8. Edit your post, please

In accordance with LBN rules, the proper subject line is "Poll: Bush's support building".

Thanks!

[Moderator]

11. Yes, please, RUexperienced...edit this subject line

to be the title of the article linked - LBN rules.

Thanks!

DU Moderator

[RUexperienced]

12. Done

[gulliver]

10. "Voters view Clark more favorably than Dean,"

I think we are going to see more and more of that. I like Dean, but Clark beats him hands down. Hands down.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. The actually balance each other

very well

To be quite honest my likes are Dean, Clark, Kucinich... in that order and they are close...

[Q3JR4]

15. I started out

supporting Dean. Now, after reading information on both candidates, I'm leaning more toward Clark. I like the man, he gives me a good feeling about the state of the U.S.

In any even, whomever get's the nod to run as the dem candidate gets my vote. ABB all the way.

:bounce:

[progressivebydesign]

22. Funny..

I have been seeing more and more of the (almost scripted) 'gee, I liked Dean.. but now I like Clark' posts here lately from new people. It's funny.. I actually was interested in Clark.. but found that most of his supporters on DU were so incredibly rude about Dean, that they turned me off of him. Clark, at first, seemed to be above the fray.. but his supporters make him look bad. That's too bad for Clark. There is something about Clark that gives me a chill.. he just doesn't seem like a warm person. Perhaps it's his military background.. but he's rather steely looking.

[Dookus]

25. honestly,

I think it's a function of seeing what you're looking for.

If you think there haven't been thousands of baseless, unsubstantiated driveby attacks on Clark, it's because you're not looking for them.

[Quixote1818]

59. Clark Supporters

I have spent time on the AOL Dean/Clark boards and got just the opposite impression. The Dean people were extremely rude and the Clark people to be really nice. Lets not judge the candidates by their supporters but by there own actions. It's like blaming Jesus Christ for everything Pat Robertson says.

[PassingFair]

63. Can you remember who you voted for...

in the past four elections. If you voted for Rayguns, would you have remembered doing so? Clark couldn't. He's the DLC's boy wonder. A Dem without a past. Er, a dem past that is.

[Emillereid]

18. The polls lately have been all over the map -- what gives.

Polling if properly done should be tighter than this? I mean a recent poll had Dean within 5 points of Bush and now this one suggests that he's 22 points out. There's something fishy -- where's Rove?

[stickdog]

69. Gallup = whores.

[truthisfreedom]

19. anyone but bush, people... anyone but bush.

[progressivebydesign]

24. You won't find that here.

People on DU have gotten so partisan about their own candidates. THey seem all to happy to completely destroy the frontrunner in pursuit of their own aims. There is a BIG ego thing involved in having your candidate win the primary, and then the election. I guess they have a feeling like they're part of someone famous... All they're doing is making sure that the Bonehead in Chief is re-selected. I plan to support whomever gets the nod. I try to stay above the crap around here about other people's candidates. But I've totally lost my patience for the attack Dean crowd. I guess, those very same people, were the ones that whined about Nader allowing Bush to win. They're doing the SAME damn thing!!! Duh!!

[Dookus]

26. As I posted upthread....

the attacks cut both ways. You're probably just not looking for it.

A small, yet prolific group of Dean supporters never miss an opportunity to attack Clark, and usually with nothing better than unsubstantiated, driveby smears.

The feigned martyrdom of the Dean crowd is tiresome.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

31. WORD, DOOKUS!

The feigned martyrdom of the Dean crowd is tiresome.

Damn straight. My Ignore list is 33 persons long now, and the great majority of those people are Dean supporters.

DTH

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. I like dean but I am ABB, good enough

aslo I wish ANY PARTISAN, I don't care where... takes Dean's words to heart (from the debate yesterday) Get behind the nominee, whoever it is.

As to the Clark Dean conflict, you know what folks it would not shock me if they end up running together, and there are precedents, Bush and Reagan and JFK and LBJ... the most recent.

ABB...

Remember teh goal is to get Bush out, not to kill each other

Oh and by the way, ray taliafero pointed this out the other day... this primary, as nasty as it has been, is not as nasty as others have been in the past... for BOTH parties, this is part of the process folks

[DoveTurnedHawk]

27. Gooooooo Clark!

The more people get to know him, the more they like him!

DTH

[adamrsilva]

28. Clarkies have nothing to celebrate

This poll suggests Bush is unbeatable.

[Woodstock]

29. CNN/Time had Dean 5 points behind Bush on 1/2

And USA Today has him 22 points behind Bush on 1/6?????

[Skip Intro]

40. Just thinking that - very strange

Somebody had the CNN graphic posted, showing bush at 51%, Dean at 46%. Can't remember who posted that, but the DUer said that CNN page was not linked on CNN's site. I didn't verify that, but have no reason to doubt it. Surely didn't hear a lot on CNN about Dean being within 5 pts of the moron. Guess that wasn't the result they wanted to report.

Isn't a lot of CNN polling done with Gallup/USAToday?

Two polls within four days of each other, one with Dean 5pts behind *, the next with Dean 22pts behind?

Something's fishy.

[Guaranteed]

54. Something is definitely wrong.

That's too much of a difference.

[alcuno]

57. They are different polls.

USA Today/CNN/Gallup had * at 63% approval in mid-December and now it's 60%. Look at their results in comparison to other polls. They are consistently much higher.

[Rowdyboy]

30. In just a few weeks, we'll all know which polls were accurate

and which weren't. In the meantime, its a contest in which no votes have been cast. Tearing down the front runner is what the other candidates are SUPPOSED TO BE DOING now. That's why they're running-because they think they're are better.

They don't just average a few polls and say, "Nevermind, I wasn't serious-I'll let you win cause you're ahead".

By April, we'll all be making s'mores and singing kumbahya-whether to Dean, Clark, Kerry, Edwards or whoever. Things will be so boring we'll long to bash each other for old times's sake.

[Melinda]

32. This story is a lie; the data is from 12/05-07 - here's all their polls

USA Today has not published a poll since mid December.

Someone, anyone - please prove me wrong and provide new/current USA Today polling data to support the articles assertion.

Go to: http://www.usatoday.com/ and click on latest polls. You'll get: http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-11-17-bush-poll.htm

2. Please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004.

Dean Lieb-erman Clark Gep-hardt Kerry Ed-wards Sharp-ton Braun Kuc-inich Gra-ham None/ other/ no opin.
Democrats/Democratic Leaners Margin of error: ±5 percentage points
2003 Dec 15-16 25 14 11 8 7 7 6 3 2 -- 17
2003 Dec 11-13 31 12 13 8 9 5 5 3 1 -- 13
3 Dec 5-7 22 10 17 13 7 7 4 5 2 -- 13
2003 Nov 14-16 16 14 16 12 10 5 4 5 3 -- 15
2003 Nov 10-12 16 15 13 11 9 9 3 4 3 -- 17
Democrats/Democratic Leaners who are Registered to Vote Margin of error: ±6 percentage points
2003 Dec 15-16 27 12 12 7 7 6 6 3 2 -- 18
2003 Dec 11-13 33 12 11 9 10 4 5 2 1 -- 13
2003 Dec 5-7 25 10 17 14 7 7 3 5 2 -- 10
2003 Nov 14-16 17 13 17 13 9 6 5 4 3 -- 13
2003 Nov 10-12 17 15 14 12 10 7 3 4 3 -- 15

Waiting patiently,
Melinda

*edited to add:

To see the Bush/others differentials, look at questions 3 and 4 - and pay close attention to the dates.

[NV1962]

60. You almost had me there... It's simply the wrong link

The menu item on the left, which reads "Latest Polls" inexplicably points to an older release date of polls (of November 17 last year, published date on December 17) and certainly not the latest.

You can reach the latest poll results page here:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-01-06-poll.htm

No idea why the correct link is given only in the front page lead story... But it seems more like a gaffe than some dark concoction.

[lostnfound]

34. At this point I don't care much whether it's Dean or Clark but ..

we Dems should pick the best man, whoever he is, and to he-- with the American public if they are dumb enough to vote Shrub in office again after all of his miserable failures, foreign and domestic.

To he-- with all of us if that's where we are at as a nation.

Dean is a perfectly decent centrist and if the American people would rather pick a lazy dumbass like Bush over any of our brilliant frontleaders, they deserve what they get.

Go Dean, go Clark, and stop wasting any time and energy on fighting anyone but Bush.

[pinto]

35. what poor reporting from the USA Today folks, no info on the survey dates

or survey base....

and the line "President Bush begins the election year with the national mood improving" has to be substantiated...it's an opinion of the writers otherwise.

I'm sure the poll is somewhere, I don't doubt that, but this is just plain shoddy reporting.

[Melinda]

36. Pinto, the data is from 12/5-7... see my post above.

[pinto]

39. I can't find any CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll published this week, either...

[Matilda]

37. There's a saying in Australia that the only poll that counts

is the one on election day.

Not only can polls be slanted, but many people change their minds
repeatedly right up to the time they cast their vote, so they may
give an honest answer to a poll, and be recorded accurately, but
change their mind for some reason later on.

[AndyTiedye]

52. Don't Count On It

> There's a saying in Australia that the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

Diebold has taken care of that little inconvenience.

Our votes will not count, unless we get Diebold out of the election business.

[pinto]

43. this may be poll referred to in article (poll12/15-16), 1,000 sample

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-11-17-bush-poll.htm

url says "11/17" but post date on the article is 12/17.

[fearnobush]

44. Can anyone prove this 5% Bush lead CNN/Time Poll?

<http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm>

[alcuno]

50. It appears that the two previous Time/CNN Polls were of registered

voters. The 5% difference poll was of likely voters. They changed the way that they had been polling. I believe that a likely voter is someone who generally voted in the last elections. That's different from a registered voter.

[fearnobush]

51. Thanks. Why can't the media report this one???

<http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/latest.asp>

[alcuno]

56. What's an interactive poll?

Is that online?

[fearnobush]

58. Looks to be at least some what on line.

From 1956 until 1976 most Harris Polls were conducted face-to-face, in people's homes. From 1980 until very recently almost all Harris Polls in the US have been conducted by telephone. In 1998, in addition to continuing telephone and face-to-face surveys, Harris Interactive began to use the Internet to conduct surveys online.

How to Conduct a Harris Poll

Harris Interactive conducts many different kinds of polls or surveys. These polls are conducted among many different populations using different methodologies such as face-to-face, telephone, online, mail, etc.

[alcuno]

62. Thanks for the info, fearnobush. And welcome to DU.

[fearnobush]

67. Thanks, I look foward to aid in exposing the whole Bush truth.

Burn Bush's not flags. ABB

[pasadenaboy]

48. Good Job DNC

you have completed your mission, Your little kingdom will not be toppled.

I'll vote for any democratic nominee, but Dean is the only one I will work for or give money to. The others are just the lessor of two evils, and not worth my time or money.

[goforit]

53. Ya right,. I'll believe the conservative USA today like I do w/Santa!!!

The USA Today has had a conservative record of articles for
four years now.

Certainly they polled all the repugs out their for this survey.

Nice try USA Today!!!

[GaryL]

64. USA Today is a rag!

I wouldn't use it to line a birdcage. One note on all of these polls. I used to write questionnaires for the state I worked for and believe me, sampling is a real pain in the ass. Espcially with caller ID so prevalent today. Who the hell out there answers their phone to talk with someone they don't know anymore? The thing I look for is how those sampled identify themselves (neocon, ?, lib). Beware of polls which don't identify these numbers. Also, as a pollster you tend to embed lie detector questions to determine if they truly are what the say BECAUSE you want an accurate count. I contend that the majority of these media driven polls could give a s*** less about accuracy. I've seen some of them with neocon respondants above 50 percent! No damn wonder the results are skewed. If you want to know how someone is really polling, talk to a compaign's internal pollsters who aren't cheap and won't tell you anything anyway.

[alcuno]

55. The headline is a lie. It contradicts their own numbers.

The article refers to support building, but when you look at the last time that this poll was done in mid-December, *'s approval was at 63%. Now it's at 60%.

Also, the * - Dean matchup was 60%-37% in mid-December.

[bobbyboucher]

61. What a waste of bandwidth.

Most Americans aren't even paying attention to this shit yet anyway.

[peacetalksforall]

65. I would place a poll by USA Today about one slot

up on a Washington Times poll.

[fearnobush]

66. CNN, Lou Dobbs says Bush's support is building in poll? It's B.S.

CNN hails the Bush with coverage as good as Fox could deliver. When In fact Poll numbers are actually down 3% for the appointed President. He was at 63% last month, now 60%. Lets send CNN a message on the truth: <http://www.cnn.com/feedback/confirmation/generic.html?2>

[stickdog]

68. Gallup = Whores of the industry.

The same pollsters had Bush 20 points ahead of Gore going into the 2000 election.