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Business WeekSince the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the U.S. government has had a single policy for getting oil from the rich Caspian Sea basin to market—squeezing it through Turkey without touching Russian or Iranian territory. More recently, the U.S. has pursued the same policy with natural gas, and for the same stated reasons: Russia already has too much market power and Iran, according to the White House, is a dangerous rogue state.
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The U.S. tilt in favor of Russia over Iran poses a dilemma for Turkey, whose government plans to sign an agreement in October to invest $3.5 billion in Iranian natural gas production for transit to Turkey and on to Europe. The Turks balk at cutting ties with their No. 2 gas supplier, yet they also don't want to upset their U.S. allies.
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Europe Wants Iran's Gas
A trans-Caspian pipeline to Baku would deftly avoid both Russian and Iranian routes. But if Turkey beefs up the capacity of its pipes to Iran, more Turkmen gas could be sent on the southern route through Iran, where it might eventually enter the Nabucco pipeline to Austria. That's not a scenario favored by the U.S., even if the Turkmen gas displaced some Iranian gas in the pipe.
Needless to say, the U.S. isn't the only country with a voice in the matter. Europe wants natural gas from Iran to help cut the continent's dependence (BusinessWeek, 8/13/07) on Russian supplies. Indeed, even as the French Foreign Minister talks of preparing for war with Iran, executives at French energy giant Total (TOT) are hoping to close on a huge gas development deal with the same country.
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