STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 14

[ozymandius]

Source: du

Friday September 14, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 494 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2443 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2155 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2116
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 13, 2007

Dow... 13,424.88 +133.23 (+1.00%)
Nasdaq... 2,601.06 +8.99 (+0.35%)
S&P 500... 1,483.95 +12.39 (+0.84%)
Gold future... 717.90 -2.80 (-0.39%)
30-Year Bond 4.74% +0.06 (+1.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% +0.07 (+1.68%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

more Radical Fringe here


Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Important Long Term Technical Relationships
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

Today’s article focuses on technical charts of long term relationships which have meaning to the non technician. These charts are not about scalping a couple of points for a quick technical profit. Instead they outline important long term technical levels which are telling us something about the fundamental picture. Consider the long term monthly chart of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. While Wal-Mart was a darling of the late 1990’s, investors who purchased the stock in mid-1999 and held for over 8-years have only an inflation-ravished $43 dollar stock and some meager dividends to show for their 8 year investment.

-chart-

Of more importance is that Wal-Mart stock has made a series of lower highs every couple of years in 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004 (twice), 2006, and 2007. While making lower highs, the lows have held steady at about 42 in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, and today. The descending triangular formation tends to have bearish implications. Support tends to be technically important. The longer the term is and the more well defined the support, the more technically important is the break once it occurs. As of today, Wal-Mart stock is teetering on the brink where a break of support may take the stock down to long term support at its long term 1998 support at $25/share. Assuming no dividend cut on the part of Wal-Mart, $25 Wal-Mart stock would result in an historically reasonable dividend of 3.7%. Will this happen to the mighty Wal-Mart tomorrow? Probably not. But it is important to consider that such happenings are far from unprecedented and have a basis in reality that should be considered seriously if the long term support at $42 is broken.

Whereas the Wal-Mart action tells a story about the price of imported goods from China and the behavior of the US consumer, the action of the Wilshire 5000 index is a story of how the market feels about equities in general. The Wilshire is a broad-based index of US equities of all types of businesses and all market capitalizations. Whereas various stock categories come and go into style, the Wilshire depicts the overall category of stock equities. As you can see in the chart below, the Wilshire now sits right at its 2000 high after having moved into new high ground earlier this year. This is an important technical level which deserves attention for technicians and non-technicians alike.

-cut-

Today’s Market

The market was broadly up on light volume today. The most astute observation I have to offer with time of the essence is that today was a bit of an upside-down day. The strongest appeared to be the weakest and vice-versa. The sector indices near the flat line or marginally down consisted of semi-conductors, biotech, and telecommunications – three of the best performers over the last year. On the flip side, some of the weakest sectors moved decisively higher today such as broadline retailers, airlines, banks and financial institutions, and specialty retailers.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

2. U.S. stock futures slip amid foreign lender's woes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-slip-amid/story.aspx?guid=%7B09F94E4C%2D60A3%2D45AB%2D90CB%2D7111747EAFF3%7D

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures traded lower on Friday, with news of a foreign lender's difficulties reigniting concerns about U.S. banks ahead of investment bank reporting season next week.

...

&P 500 futures slipped 5.9 points at 1,492.10 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 9.75 points at 2,014.75. Dow industrial futures eased 42 points.

...

he British pound was under pressure on Friday after one U.K. lender, Northern Rock, was forced to turn to the Bank of England for emergency funding.

...

The FTSE 100 dropped 1.5% in London. Asian investors however largely ignored the news, with the Nikkei 225 climbing 1.9%.

[ozymandius]

9. Mortgage banks pull FTSE 100 under

London equities fell on Friday after Northern Rock went to the Bank of England to arrange emergency financial support, a move that led to a two-year profit warning and undermined share prices in its peers.

The FTSE 100 started the session 0.7 per cent weaker at 6,318.0, a loss of 45 points. The biggest portion of that decline was accounted for by high street banks. Mid-cap financial stocks also fell, contributing to a 69 point loss on the FTSE 250, down 0.6 per cent at 11,104.9.

-cut-

Shares in Northern Rock tumbled 22 per cent to 500p after it confirmed it had arranged emergency lending facilities from the central bank, with its mortgage portfolio used as collateral. Shares in the bank were worth £12.15 at their February peak.

Neither the Bank of England or Northern Rock would comment on the rates at which the emergency credit line would be charged.

-cut-

Credit Suisse slashed its price target on the shares to 500p from 745p, but also suggested Northern Rock could find itself at the centre of bid speculation after such a dramatic fall.

Mortgage banks who rely heavily on the short-term money markets to finance their operations were also sharply lower. Alliance & Leicester fell 5 per cent to 892.8p, while Bradford and Bingley slumped 7.5 per cent to 330p.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070914/bs_ft/fto091420070444193303

[UpInArms]

18. Credit crunch claims biggest UK casualty

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070914/bs_nm/economy_credit_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - Credit markets took another hit as the Bank of England bailed out Britain's biggest casualty so far in the global credit crunch while policymakers differed over the best way to restore liquidity to money markets.

The world's biggest central banks have held off from raising rates in the past few weeks for fear of adding to market turmoil but China raised its key rates on Friday for the fifth time this year in a bid to curb inflation.

European policymakers meeting on Friday in Portugal were discussing how far the market crisis threatens economic growth and were keen not to overstate the implications.

But in Germany, where two banks have needed bailouts from the credit crunch, Economy Minister Michael Glos said on Friday the market turbulence was far from over.

"Now we must do everything to make sure the crisis does not spill over into the real economy," Glos told parliament.

...more...

[Eugene]

25. British bank hit by credit problems, clients withdraw savings

Source: Agence France-Presse

British bank hit by credit problems, clients withdraw savings

by Ben Perry
19 minutes ago

LONDON (AFP) - Shares in British bank Northern Rock
plunged by a quarter on Friday as clients rushed to
withdraw their savings following an emergency bailout
of the lender by the Bank of England.

The central bank came to the rescue of Britain's fifth-
biggest home loan provider, which is facing severe
difficulties raising cash on money markets amid the
ongoing global credit squeeze.

From London to Edinburgh, panicking customers
queued outside Northern Rock branches to get hold of
their savings, despite government ministers and
Bank of England (BoE) officials appealing for calm.

-snip-

Northern Rock is the first major British financial
institution to be severely hit by the credit crunch
sparked by the US home loan crisis.

-snip-

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070914/ts_afp/marketsfinancebritainbankbankingcompany

[ozymandius]

3. Today's big-ol-bag-o-reports

8:30 AM Current Account Q2
Briefing Forecast -$192.0B
Market Expects -$190.0B
Prior -$192.6B

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.0%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.0%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.3%

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Briefing Forecast 82.1%
Market Expects 82.0%
Prior 81.9%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.4%

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep
Briefing Forecast 83.0
Market Expects 83.5
Prior 83.4

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[JNelson6563]

12. Early word must not be good

those futures charts look pretty grim. :scared:

Happy Friday Marketeers! Now if we can get out of the casino today without losing our shirts.....:hi:

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. 8:30 reports:

07. U.S. August export prices rise 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

08. U.S. August import prices ex-fuels rise 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

09. U.S. August import prices rise 1.9% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

10. U.S. August non-petroleum import prices fall 0.1%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

11. U.S. August petroleum import prices fall 1.3%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

12. U.S. August import prices fall 0.3% vs. 0.4% rise expected
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

13. U.S. Aug. general merchandise stores' retail sales up 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

14. U.S. Q2 current account deficit 5.5% of GDP, vs. 5.8%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

15. U.S. Aug. retail sales ex-autos, ex-gas fall 0.1%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

16. U.S. Aug. gasoline sales fall 2.4% on price decline
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

17. U.S. Aug. auto sales up 2.8%, most in a year
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

18. U.S. Q2 current account deficit $190.8bln vs. $197.1bln
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

19. U.S. July retail sales revised up to 0.5% vs. 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

20. U.S. Aug. retail sales ex-autos fall 0.4%, lowest in a year
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 18 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

16. missed one - U.S. Aug. retail sales up 0.3%, weaker than expected

21. U.S. Aug. retail sales up 0.3%, weaker than expected
8:30 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 20 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

24. 9:15 EST reports:

01. U.S. Aug. manufacturing down 0.3%
9:15 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

02. U.S. Aug. utility output up 5.3%
9:15 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

03. U.S. Aug. capacity utilization 82.2% vs rev 82.2% in July
9:15 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

04. U.S. July industrial output up rev 0.5% vs 0.3% prev est
9:15 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

05. U.S. Aug. industrial production up 0.2% vs 0.3% forecast
9:15 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

(left another off) :blush:

[UpInArms]

34. U.S July business inventories up 0.5%

01. U.S. July retail inventories up 1%; auto inventories up 2.9%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

02. U.S July business inventories up 0.5%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

03. U.S. July business sales rise 1.1%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

04. U.S. July inventory-sales ratio falls to 1.26 vs. 1.27 June
10:00 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

36. U.S. Sept. UMich consumer sentiment 83.8 vs 83.4 in Aug.

01. U.S. Sept. UMich sentiment above consensus 83.5
10:07 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

02. U.S. Sept. UMich consumer sentiment 83.8 vs 83.4 in Aug.
10:07 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

37. "outlooks among different income and age groups and regions offset each other"

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1445309420070914?sp=true

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment was steady in early September from August as shifts in outlooks among different income and age groups and regions offset each other, a survey showed on Friday.

The cross-currents that held sentiment steady could be the prelude to additional declines or renewed gains, "although additional declines may be more likely," it said, but added that the data indicated that "only the extent and duration of the weakness in consumer spending are still at issue."

<snip>

The economic factor that changed the most in the survey was interest-rate expectations, which recorded its largest improvement since December 2000, the month prior to the start of 13 Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The first five cuts in the first five months of 2001 were each a half percentage point. A recession lasted from March to November 2001.

The number of households reporting declines in the value of their homes rose to 25 percent in early September 2007, five times the level recorded in September 2002, and just above the all-time peak of 24 percent in November 1992, the survey said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. Oil drops below $80 on profit taking

LONDON - Oil prices fell Friday amid profit taking after closing at a record high the previous session on supply concerns.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery lost 45 cents to $79.64 a barrel in mid-morning European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract finished Thursday at a record $80.09 a barrel, up 18 cents, and above the previous record close of $79.91 set a day earlier.

Analysts say much of the recent advance in crude prices has been due to buying by large investment funds. The low dollar, which encourages buying by foreign investors, has also played a role.

Oil first traded over $80 a barrel Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Department reported declines in crude and gasoline inventories and a drop in refinery activity, but it ended that session below the psychologically important mark.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Oil down as Humberto fades, supply fears stay

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Friday as a hurricane subsided in the Gulf of Mexico, although prices held near the previous day's record high on supply worries ahead of peak winter demand.

U.S. crude dropped 48 cents to $79.61 a barrel by 0907 GMT, having settled up 18 cents in New York on Thursday, when prices hit a record of $80.20 a barrel. London Brent crude shed 38 cents to $76.74.

U.S. gasoline futures eased 0.6 percent after leading gains on Thursday, as Hurricane Humberto was downgraded to a tropical storm after shutting oil shipping channels and three refineries when it slammed onshore in Texas.

Valero said it expected to restart its Port Arthur, Texas plant by Sunday. It, Total, and Shell shut plants when a power failure cut electricity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070914/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_21

[AnneD]

39. Some of those folks should read the paper more....

Humberto was rainy windstorm and nothing more. Knocked the power out and they had to
restart, but nothing was damaged in a major way....It was just an excuse to seculate and drive the prices up, like the needed an excuse :eyes:

[ozymandius]

6. Consumer confidence tumbles in Sept.

WASHINGTON - Consumer confidence tumbled to its lowest point in nearly 1 1/2 years as a deep housing slump and a credit crunch made people more worried about the country's economic health as well as their own.

The RBC Cash Index showed consumer confidence clocking in at 71.1 in September, a sharp drop from August's reading of 89.3. It marked the worst showing since May 2006, when sticker shock from high gasoline prices rattled peoples' sense of economic well-being. The index is based on the results of the international polling firm Ipsos.

"It's ugly," Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research, said of the latest confidence reading. "Consumers are rattled to the bone."

-cut-

Economists keep close tabs on confidence barometers for any clues about consumers' willingness to spend. Consumer spending accounts for a big slice of overall economic activity. Analysts, however, caution that there can be a big difference between how consumers feel and what they actually do in terms of spending.

The overriding worry is that consumers will cut back on their spending, dealing a blow to the economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070914/ap_on_bi_ge/ipsos_consumer_confidence

[ozymandius]

7. Consumers could face higher toy prices

NEW YORK - Someone is going to have to pay all the extra costs of making toys safer.

For now, toy makers and retailers are sharing the burden, but that's only expected to last until the holiday season. Next year, American consumers will be facing price increases of up to 10 percent to pay for the industry's increased vigilance after more than 3 million lead-tainted toys from China were recalled worldwide since June.

That means a $6.99 Barbie doll could go up to about $7.70, or a $70 child-friendly digital camera could retail next year for almost $80.

A 10 percent average increase would be the biggest one-time price hike in toys in several years, analysts say. And it's more than twice the government's measure of consumer inflation of 4.7 percent during the first seven months of this year.

Consumers could also see higher prices on other Chinese imports like fish and children's apparel, but the big price gains in toys could be more jolting.

Shoppers have become accustomed to cheap playthings from China because Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other discounters have waged cost-cutting campaigns. Critics say real safeguards were sacrificed to keep prices low.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070914/ap_on_bi_ge/toy_prices

[AnneD]

44. Not to be a Grinch but......

where is the down side here? Kids get way too much of this usless crap and it teaches them to over consume and cheapens the value of their toys and playtime. A few well loved toys that excite the imagination are better than a room full of cheap meaningless crap.

Merry Christmas.

[ozymandius]

8. China raises interest rates again

BEIJING - China raised interest rates Friday for a fifth time this year in a bid to curb rising inflation amid signs previous efforts to cool the sizzling economy were having little effect.

The interest rate on one-year loans will rise by 0.27 percent, to 7.29 percent, as of Saturday, the Central Bank said. Rates paid on bank deposits also will rise by a similar margin to 3.87 percent.

Economists had expected a rate hike after the government said this week that inflation rose to an 11-year high in August of 6.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070914/ap_on_bi_ge/china_interest_rates

[ozymandius]

10. U.S. stock futures decline

NEW YORK - U.S. stock futures fell Friday as investors nervously awaited the latest readings on the economy's health — some of the last data the Federal Reserve will consider ahead of next week's decision on interest rates.

After a week with little economic news, investors will pay close attention to data on industrial production, retail sales and consumer confidence, due out early Friday. Wall Street has been keen for a sense of how the recent credit squeeze and financial market turmoil will affect the broader economy — and the Fed's decision on interest rates.

Investors widely expect the central bank to cut rates, but futures trading on Friday suggests jitters persist.

Dow Jones industrial futures dropped 55, or 0.40 percent, to 13,481. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures lost 7.60, or 0.51 percent, to 1,490.40, and Nasdaq 100 index futures shed 15.25, or 0.75 percent, to 2,009.25.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070914/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[ozymandius]

11. Goldman fund reportedly suffers big loss

Global Alpha hedge fund loses 22.7% in August - the worst monthly performance in its history, according to newspaper.

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- A hedge fund run by Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs posted the worst monthly performance in its 12-year history in August, according to a published report.

Goldman's Global Alpha hedge fund fell 22.7 percent last month, the Wall Street Journal said, citing a letter the fund sent to investors.

The fund is down 33.4 percent so far this year and has lost 37 percent over the last 12 months, the newspaper said.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/14/news/companies/goldman_alpha_fund/index.htm?postversion=2007091404

[Roland99]

13. Paulson got his golden parachute, though, eh?

[UpInArms]

28. $53.4M Goldman CEO Bonus Breaks Record: CEO Bonus by Numbers

http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/20/534m_goldman_ceo_bonus_breaks_record_ceo_bonus_by.html

Following its record breaking profits in 2006, Goldman Sachs breaks another record by paying its CEO Lloyd Blankfein $53.4 million in 2006 Bonus. It smashed the week long previous $40M bonus record held by John Mack, CEO of Morgan Stanley.

Goldman also set the earlier record when it paid Henry Paulson $38.3 million in 2005.

Other than Blankfein, 11 other senior Goldman executives as a group were granted more than $150 million in shares and stock options this year.

The bonuses come after Goldman reported net profit jump of 70% to $9.4 billion on revenue of $37.67 billion this year. Goldman had set aside a total of $16.5 billion this year for salaries, bonuses and benefits. On average, this would translate to $622,000 per employee.

The five biggest U.S. securities firms -- Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. -- are handing out about $36 billion of bonuses this year.

The trend in compensating executives has been to keep salaries level while increasing bonuses. In fact, the average base salary for the top executives increased only 43.5% from 1997 to 2006, while annual bonuses increased 283.2%, according to the November 2006 Executive Compensation Index figures released by ERI Economic Research Institute and CareerJournal.com.

...more...

(edited for html)

[KoKo]

38. ..top executives salary only increased 43.5% from '97 to '06! ??

I have to believe the writer was gagging as he wrote that.....:eyes:

How much has the average Service Workers salary increased in that time frame? How much has the "minimum wage" increased in that time. And...no bonuses to compensate for 0.

[UpInArms]

30. Paulson out there mumbling words - for whom?

10. Paulson repeats it will take a while to work through crisis
9:28 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 20 minutes ago

11. Paulson sees some modest improvement in markets under stress
9:26 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

12. Paulson: Confident we are going to work our way through this
9:25 AM ET, Sep 14, 2007 - 23 minutes ago

[specimenfred1984]

41. Sales are great all week until today when they suddenly suck, LOL.

The U.S. markets are pure propagandized bullsh_t.

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

14. K&R nt

[UpInArms]

17. Mortgage Lenders: The Pain Deepens (lenders begging for a rate cut)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20070914/bs_bw/sep2007pi20070913402427

For the crippled mortgage industry, the bad news won't stop.

In August, mortgage lenders announced 30,892 job cuts, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas (Challenger, Gray & Christmas), a firm that tracks layoff announcements. Speaking of the mortgage-fueled layoffs in the broader financial services industry, the firm's CEO, John Challenger, says, "We have not seen such a rapid descent since the airlines shed thousands of workers" in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

In September, the layoffs haven't slowed. A selection: Eight hundred more layoffs at National City Corp. (NYSE:NCC - News), a Cleveland-based bank that cut 500 employees last month at its mortgage business. H&R Block (NYSE:HRD - News) will cut 575 more workers at its Option One Mortgage unit. Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH - News) will fire 850 workers, many at its Aurora Loan Services unit. IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE:IMB - News) plans to cut 1,000 jobs, or 10% of its workforce.

Finally, Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE:CFC - News), the nation's largest mortgage lender, plans to eliminate 10,000 to 12,000 workers, or about 20% of its headcount.

Yes, there are a few signs of hope for the industry. Many of the bigger mortgage companies have stabilized their financial positions as some of the weakest and riskiest players have gone under. A few of the big players have even hired up their defunct rivals' former employees. And, yes, an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, expected Sept. 18, might help somewhat.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.459 Change -0.082 (-0.10%)

US Dollar Hits Fresh Record Low, Will Friday's US Data Trigger A Turn?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Hits_Fresh_Record_1189716594948.html

With the US Dollar establishing new record lows against the Euro for the second day in a row, many traders have been left wondering how much lower the greenback can possibly fall. Given the ramped up speculation regarding the possibilities of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next Tuesday, targets of 1.40 do not seem out of reach. Nevertheless, with the release of US retail sales anticipated to improve on Friday, the greenback could see a substantial boost. Figures from many retailers for the month of August have already highlighted steady sales during the back-to-school season, despite deteriorating labor markets and a housing recession. However, many retailers have also reported that the sales gains were the result of massive discounting, which cannot go on forever given the practice’s negative impact on profit margins. Regardless, forex traders will likely respond in a somewhat short-sighted manner and take EURUSD for a tumble, especially if retail sales are better-than-expected and act to quell speculation of a rate cut by the Fed.

...more...

Pound Loses Its Luster - 6% Rates History?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Pound_Loses_Its_Luster___1189761654633.html

What a difference a few days makes in the currency market. Just last week UK economic data was read hot with both consumption and production gauges showing healthy gains. Another rate hike by the BOE appeared to be only a matter of time as global credit markets stabilized Now. however, any expectations of 6% money from UK before year end have essentially evaporated as a series of surprising announcements from the real estate sector raised speculation that UK may be on the cusp of its own credit crisis.

Last night’s shockingly low RICS reading which printed at –1.8 vs. 10.0 forecast was the first piece of news to puncture holes in cable bulls sunny argument, but sterling really fell off the cliff after BOE announced plans to provide liquidity to Northern Rock as UK’s fourth largest mortgage lender was finding it increasingly difficult to access longer term funding. While the BOE press release specifically noted that “FSA judges Northern Rock to be solvent, as it exceeds its regulatory capital requirement and has a good quality loan book," currency traders took a more jaundiced view of the events, speculating that Northern Rock, like so many so many mortgage lenders may have gotten caught in the classic “borrow short, lend long” squeeze. Even if the current situation in UK lending sector is resolved with minimal loss of capital, the news over the past few days clearly shows the stress fractures in the UK economy and is likely to produce a much more cautious policy path from the BoE. Therefore forecasts of 6% UK rates by the end of 2007 appear to be shaky at best and that fact should weigh on the pound going forward.

Finally the marquee economic event of the week takes place at 12:30 GMT today when US Retail Sales numbers are due to report. For dollar bulls this number is absolutely vital in supporting the “slowdown” rather than the “hard landing” view of the US economy. If it disappoint to the downside the pressure on the Fed to cut rates by as much as 50bp will be immense.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. US RATE FUTURES-Lean to 50 bps Fed cut on retail sales

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSCHB00035620070914

CHICAGO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose on Friday, indicating slightly raised expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next week after weaker than expected August retail sales.

The implied chances for a half-percentage-point cut in the fed funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday (FFV7: Quote, Profile, Research) traded as high as 64 percent from 58 percent late on Thursday.

U.S. retail sales for August rose by 0.3 percent, below the median Wall Street forecast, and excluding autos fell unexpectedly by 0.4 percent.

[UpInArms]

26. Dollar under pressure after weak retail sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/currencies-dollar-under-pressure-after/story.aspx?guid=%7B827AA89C%2DAD41%2D483A%2DB6B1%2DF988BA436082%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar came under pressure against the yen and the euro on Friday, after news of weak August retail sales fueled expectations that a slowing economy will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

<snip>

The dollar saw some safe-haven flows after news that U.K. mortgage lender Northern Rock (UK:NRK: news, chart, profile) said it needs to tap the Bank of England for emergency funding after the credit crunch left it struggling to raise financing.

The dollar still fell 0.1% against the euro and was down 0.2% against the yen.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in August, below expectations of a 0.6% gain, with all the gains seen for cars and trucks. Excluding those, sales fell 0.4%, below expectations of a 0.2% gain.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

33. Canadian dollar hits thirty-year high against USD

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLA82443120070914

TORONTO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar soared to a new 30-year high against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar on Friday, driven by robust commodity prices and the expectations of an interest rate cut in the United States next week.

The Canadian dollar touched C$1.0285 to the U.S. dollar, or 97.23 U.S. cents at 8:20 a.m. (1220 GMT).

[UpInArms]

21. Beazer asks court to bar trustees' default notices

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWNAS407520070914

CHICAGO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc (BZH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it has asked a federal court for a preliminary injunction ordering debt trustees to withdraw default notices.

The company also asked the U.S. District Court in Atlanta to bar the trustees from taking any steps to speed up seeking payments due under its senior notes because of delays in filing quarterly reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, it said in an SEC filing.

Beazer on Monday said it had received a notice of default from the trustees of one series of its convertible notes and that it had asked the court to stop the trustees' action. It was the second time in less than a week that U.S. Bank National Association had sent Beazer a notice of default.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Bank of America latest to tap Japan for funds

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUST12975920070914?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

TOKYO (Reuters) - Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) sold 230 billion yen ($2 billion) of global bonds on Friday, sources said, joining a handful of major banks that have sought to raise cash in Japan's stable credit markets.

The Bank of America deal takes the amount of bonds sold in Japan by foreign banks to more than $6 billion in the past week, with Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) having all placed yen paper.

Financial firms in the United States and Europe have struggled to raise funds as banks make room for their commitments to the troubled asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market, which has been shunned by investors worried about U.S. subprime mortgages.

British mortgage lender Northern Rock (NRK.L: Quote, Profile, Research) highlighted the difficulties some institutions face, obtaining an emergency loan from the Bank of England after having run into trouble raising funds for its assets in the money markets.

The scramble for funds has sent money market rates soaring and has prompted big banks to turn to Japan, with market players saying the funds were almost certainly being swapped back into dollars, euros or pounds from the yen.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. SEC charges hedge fund manager, funds in PIPE case

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1340137820070913?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday filed fraud charges against hedge fund manager Robert Berlacher and the Lancaster group of hedge funds, alleging they engaged in an illegal trading scheme involving at least 10 unregistered securities offerings.

The SEC charged that Berlacher implemented an unlawful scheme from 2000 through 2005 that helped Lancaster realize more than $1.7 million in illegal gains by investing in private-investment-in-public-equities (PIPE) offerings.

In a PIPE deal, an underwriter sells a company's restricted shares, while the company agrees to file paperwork with regulators allowing investors to resell those shares to the public.

According to the SEC's complaint, Berlacher and Lancaster, after learning about a PIPE transaction, sold short the issuer's stock.

Once the SEC declared the resale registration statement effective, Berlacher and Lancaster would use the PIPE shares to cover the short position, which is prohibited by federal securities laws, the SEC said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Credit market woes cause Carlyle Grojp to pull cable unit off market

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/12/news/companies/carlyle_cable/?postversion=2007091207

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In the latest sign of problems in the credit markets, private equity firm Carlyle Group has indefinitely postponed the sale of a cable company because bidders did not meet its price, according to a published report.

The Washington Post reported the problems in the sale of Insight Communications, which Carlyle Group purchased for about $2.1 billion in 2005. Bidders including Time Warner Cable (Charts), had difficulty getting enough bank financing, according to the report.

Time Warner Cable, the nation's No. 2 cable operator behind Comcast (Charts), is majority-owned by media conglomerate Time Warner (Charts, Fortune 500), which also owns CNNMoney.com, although the cable unit has 16 percent of its shares traded publicly. Other potential bidders included smaller cable operators and some other private equity firms, including the Blackstone Group (Charts).

Insight, which the Post reports is profitable, has 600,000 subscribers in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and New York. Robin Flynn, a senior analyst with financial research firm SNL Kagan, told the paper she put the value of the company at $2.5 billion. She said it was the financing markets, not problems with the cable operator, that killed the sale.

...a bit more...

[AnneD]

35. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. This is a drive by posting today. I am busy today and hubby returns from India tomorrow. In fact, he is on route as we speak.

I remember just a few months ago when all these companies were in the black and were making so much per dividend. And now you tell me that no one can scrounge up enough scratch to buy a company? Hard time indeed.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

29. 9:45 EST numbers and pre-opening blather

Dow 13,353.59 71.29 (0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,585.61 15.45 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,475.83 8.12 (0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.418% 0.064

NYSE Volume 144,531,000
Nasdaq Volume 110,842,000

09:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.5. Lower open indicated after solid net gains the past three days.

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.5. Futures drift to lowest level of session. Oil prices, down about $0.40 this morning but still above $79.50 a barrel, are an added factor.

08:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.2. Futures dip following the slightly weaker than expected retail sales numbers. Total August sales were up 0.3%, below an expected 0.5% gain, but the July increase was revised upward 0.2% to a 0.5% gain. Lower gas prices also led to a decline in that category, which is not such a bad thing. Overall consumer spending remains on track and the impact should be limited.

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.5. Futures indicate a lower open as European markets decline on news that the Bank of England will provide liquidity to UK mortgage lender Northern Rock. August retail sales data are due at 8:30 ET.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.0.

06:20 am : FTSE...6266.50...-97.40...-1.5%. DAX...7467.32...-68.65...-0.9%.

[UpInArms]

31. Fed pumping begins: Fed undertaking 3-day repo to add temporary reserves

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00074120070914

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Friday it was undertaking a 3-day repurchase agreement to add temporary reserves to the banking system.

Federal funds traded in the market steady at 5.00 percent after the operation was announced, below the 5.25 percent target rate the Fed sets.

[UpInArms]

32. Fed adds $3.0 bln of temporary reserves in 3-day repo

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00074220070914

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Friday it added $3.0 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system via a 3-day repurchase agreement.

Federal funds traded in the market steady at 5.0 percent after the amount was announced, below the 5.25 percent target rate the Fed sets.

The Fed said it accepted as collateral for the operation $2.80 billion in agency debt and $200 million in Treasuries.

A total of $51.05 billion in bids were submitted for the operation.

[Spazito]

40. Europe's cash infusions may not work: Dodge

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge is skeptical that recent moves by the European Central Bank to calm money markets are doing any good, an unusually candid stance for a central banker.

His comments come as the ECB is injecting billions of euros into three-month bills to try to stabilize lending in money markets.

snip

Mr. Dodge also said it was not the duty of central bankers to “bail out people who have made losses.”

Mr. Dodge isn't the only one saying central banks should limit their interference. Bank of England governor Mervyn King said this week that it's “certainly not our job to somehow bail out people who have made losses”, as that would eventually spark inflation.

more

http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070914.wdodgestaff0914/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business

[roamer65]

43. Dodge is an experienced, intelligent central bank chief...

who knows what he is doing and takes the role of safeguarding Canada's currency seriously. Trichet and Bernanke could take lessons from him.

[Spazito]

45. I agree, he has served Canada well....

I worry about who the current conservative government will appoint as his replacement and hope they will not put someone in who will try to follow the Greenspan/Bernanke philosophy as opposed to carrying on from where Dodge leaves off.

[Roland99]

42. 12:27pm - Lunch-time coma

Flatlining.

Dow 13,420.49 -4.39
Nasdaq 2,597.55 -3.51
S&P 500 1,482.11 -1.84
10 YR 4.49% 0.01
Oil $79.87 $-0.22
Gold $722.50 $4.60

[TrogL]

46. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-08-14 Tuesday, August 14 0.940291 USD
2007-08-15 Wednesday, August 15 0.930579 USD
2007-08-16 Thursday, August 16 0.929887 USD
2007-08-17 Friday, August 17 0.940291 USD
2007-08-20 Monday, August 20 0.94518 USD
2007-08-21 Tuesday, August 21 0.943307 USD
2007-08-22 Wednesday, August 22 0.94162 USD
2007-08-23 Thursday, August 23 0.946432 USD
2007-08-24 Friday, August 24 0.950119 USD
2007-08-27 Monday, August 27 0.951022 USD
2007-08-28 Tuesday, August 28 0.941974 USD
2007-08-29 Wednesday, August 29 0.944109 USD
2007-08-30 Thursday, August 30 0.946342 USD
2007-08-31 Friday, August 31 0.94697 USD
2007-09-03 Monday, September 3 0.94697 USD
2007-09-04 Tuesday, September 4 0.953016 USD
2007-09-05 Wednesday, September 5 0.951656 USD
2007-09-06 Thursday, September 6 0.949307 USD
2007-09-07 Friday, September 7 0.948227 USD
2007-09-10 Monday, September 10 0.949487 USD
2007-09-11 Tuesday, September 11 0.958773 USD
2007-09-12 Wednesday, September 12 0.964134 USD
2007-09-13 Thursday, September 13 0.968617 USD
2007-09-14 Friday, September 14 0.971628 USD


Current values

Loonie:

Last trade 0.9723 Change +0.0023 (+0.24%)
Previous Close 0.9703 Open 0.9723
Low 0.9691 High 0.9737


Other combinations:

AS.M07 AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 0.89650 -0.00255
HY.M07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 116.30 +1.495
RA.M07 EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.6515 -0.00002
GB.M07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Sep (NYBOT) 0.69020 +0.00675
EP.M07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.4985 -0.00440
EJ.M07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 159.75 -0.0555
EU.M07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.38750 -0.00105


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally but is challenging July's high crossing at .9692. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The overbought condition of the market suggests that a breakout above July's high crossing at .9692 could prove to be a bull trap. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9522 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.



Analysis

I'm having a little trouble sorting out who's gaining on whom 'cause the Loonie, Euro and Yen are all in flux. The Ozzie's starting to look good again.

[UpInArms]

47. Falling home prices could dent economy - Consumers will be poorer, and probably won't spend as much

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/falling-home-prices-could-dent/story.aspx?guid=%7B929FE284%2DE99F%2D4648%2D8EAF%2DEA7C92AD1BB6%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Just as rising home prices helped fuel the economic expansion of the past six years by making people wealthier, falling home prices could put a big dent in economic growth in the next few years by making them poorer.

At this point, few economists expect the economy to sink into a recession, but almost all of them agree that consumer spending would slow, perhaps significantly, if home prices were to fall.

With the number of excess homes rising amid falling demand, the negatives in the housing market will "continue putting downward pressure on prices," said Seamus Symth, an economist for Goldman Sachs, who says home prices were plunging at a 9% annual rate in the most recent data. Goldman expects home prices to fall 7% this year and another 7% next year.

The path of home prices could be the key to whether the economy grows or stalls.
"A big issue is whether developments in the relatively small housing sector will spread to the large consumption sector, perhaps through declines in house prices," San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said in a recent speech. "Should the decline in house prices occur in the context of rising unemployment, the risks could be significant."

<snip>

While a cumulative 8% drop in home prices (after nearly doubling in the previous six years) doesn't sound so ominous, such a decline would be the largest since the Great Depression.

...more...

[ozymandius]

48. ending the week with bluster and little else

Dow 13,442.52 Up 17.64 (0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,602.18 Up 1.12 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,484.25 Up 0.30 (0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.462% Down 0.02
NYSE Volume 2,641,744,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,586,584,000

4:20 pm : A day that started on a bearish note ended up sending the bulls into the weekend on a feel-good note.

The short and sweet of it is that the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were down 101, 23 and 11 points, respectively, in the first 15 minutes of trading as liquidity concerns linked to reports of the Bank of England providing emergency funding to Northern Rock, the U.K.'s third biggest mortgage lender, Merrill Lynch downgrades of Intel (INTC 24.93, -0.42) and American Express (AXP 58.94, -1.66), and weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production reports for August, prompted a broad-based wave of profit taking.

Consistent with this week's bias, though, stocks caught a bid and recouped just about all of those losses before mid-day. They then held their ground throughout the session and finagled a positive finish on some late-day buying interest.

There wasn't any specific news catalyst for the reversal, but the resilience to early selling activity and the recognition that the economic data weren't that bad proved to be an igniting factor for today's participants who, based on NYSE volume of just 1.20 billion shares, were limited in number.

Basic materials (+0.7%) was the best-performing of the 10 economic sectors while telecom services (-0.6%) brought up the rear. Although the market made up a lot of lost ground, it couldn't make much headway from the unchanged mark because of the lack of involvement of the financial (-0.04%), technology (-0.3%) and health care (-0.2%) sectors, which comprise roughly 50% of the S&P's market capitalization.

We would note that there were takeover rumors today surrounding several stocks. Those rumors were indeed questionable when taking into account the light volume that makes it easier to move stocks on a day like today and that next week brings a quadruple witching options expiration.

For the week the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained 2.5%, 1.4% and 2.1%.

Next week brings a slate of key happenings, the biggest of which is Tuesday's FOMC meeting. Briefing.com expects the Fed to cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. Separately, several investment banks will be reporting their quarterly results while the economic calendar features the telling PPI, CPI and Housing Starts reports.

DJ30 +17.64 NASDAQ +1.12 SP500 +0.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1307/1629/1.57 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1509/1764/1.18 bln