Setbacks Outweigh Successes in Iraq since Surge Began

[Hissyspit]

Source: McClatchy Newspapers

Setbacks outweigh successes in Iraq since surge began
By LEILA FADEL
McClatchy Newspapers

BAGHDAD | When President Bush announced in January a “new way forward” in Iraq, he said that Iraqi and American troops would improve security while the Iraqi government improved services. Responsibility for security in most of Iraq would be turned over to Iraqi security forces by November, he said. With better security would come the breathing room needed for political reconciliation, Bush said.

With less than a week to go before the White House delivers a congressionally mandated report on that plan, none of this has happened.

- snip -

But interviews with Iraqis, statistics on violence gathered independently by McClatchy Newspapers and a review of developments in the country since the United States began increasing troop strength here last February provide little reason for optimism:

•Baghdad has become more segregated. Sunni Muslims in the capital now live in ghettos encircled by concrete blast walls to stop militia attacks and car bombs.
•Shiite militias continue to push to control the city’s last mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods in the southwest by murdering and intimidating Sunni residents and, sometimes, their Shiite neighbors.

Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/266932.html

[Demit]

1. Pretty sobering overview. Thanks for posting it.

It reports specifics from Tal Afar, Mosul, Ramadi, Fallujah, Basra and Baghdad; it names the myriad political factions involved in the power struggles; it includes numbers reported by international humanitarian organizations and quotes from Iraqi citizens. It is informative. In contrast, what we will get from Petraeus & Crocker is the unbacked-up assertion that violence is down by 75%. And, because the White House and its willing minions in the press have laid the groundwork, what we'll get is slavering adoration of the general, who by now very nearly walks on water, although no one exactly explains why that is.

Petraeus is a careerist walking down a road littered with the disgraced careers of generals who could not say what the president wanted to hear. He knows when to jump & how high. I dread the farce to come next week.

[necso]

2. A little math.

{groan}

to excerpt: "U.S. military officers say that Baghdad has gone from being 65 percent Sunni to being 75 percent Shiite."

Which is to say that previously (ignoring the small percentages of other populations):
old Sunni population = .65ot (old total population)
old Shia population = .35ot

Now, the current total population (ct) need not be the same as the old total population, but using that assumption as one bound (on what I'm going to calculate) seems reasonable -- as does using the case where the total population has fallen by the number of Sunnis driven out. (The bottom line, the smaller the current population, the greater the percentage of Sunnis driven out.)

case 1: ct = ot
old Sunni population: .65ot
new Sunni population: .25ot
difference: .65t - .25ot = .4ot
percentage drop in Sunni population: .4ot/.65ot = 61.5%

case 2: ct = ot - f (number of fled Sunnis)
old/new Shia population: .35ot
new Sunni population: .25ct = .25(ot - f) = .65ot - f
(we want to solve for f in terms of ot; but I'll spare the math: f = .533ot)
to check: .117ot/(.117ot +.35ot) = 25%
percentage drop in Sunni population: .533ot/.65ot = 82%

But whether the drop in the Sunni population is 60 or 82 percent (and I've seen higher estimates), it's a huge deal -- and this form of cleansing appears to have passed the halfway point... indeed it might be largely (>4/5) done.

However, such a dramatic decline calls into question whether this decline is strictly the result of Shia militias (the Sunnis apparently were in a pretty good position to start in this area; they're apparently losing badly now) -- or whether US forces and Iraqi "security" forces have played (/are playing) a major role, either directly or indirectly by creating conditions that have relatively disadvantaged the Sunnis.

[Spazito]

3. Excellent article, very detailed

McClatchy continues to impress me re their coverage. Thanks for posting this.