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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:31 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 5
Source: du

Wednesday September 5, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 505
LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2434 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2146 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2107
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54



U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES





AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.


AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 4, 2007

Dow... 13,448.86 +91.12 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq... 2,630.24 +33.88 (+1.30%)
S&P 500... 1,489.42 +15.43 (+1.05%)
Gold future... 691.50 +9.60 (+1.39%)
30-Year Bond 4.84% +0.01 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.56% +0.02 (+0.46%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver



PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government









Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:35 AM
Response to Original message
1. Market WrapUp
The Lull and the Great Inflation-Deflation Debate
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT


Stocks continue a post sell-off recovery pattern, with liquidity flows helping to restore more normalized conditions in many areas of the capital markets. Over the last few days, energy prices have moved higher, the Dollar marginally higher, Metals higher, and Bond prices slightly lower. The ‘feel’ of the current market is that of a ‘lull,’ a quiet time, an “Intermission” in the still unfolding multi-act play that is the Credit Contraction of 2007. To be sure, we know it is not over, not by a long shot. Sometimes, at points in time like this, it is very easy to extrapolate the short term stability associated with a temporary lull into a more giddy feeling that everything may soon be over, with things ending up to work out “just fine.” The Muddle Through Mind Set grows during periods of relative calm with active players quickly wondering, “Perhaps the stock market is a good buy after all?”, “Perhaps the DJIA will go back and hit new all time highs?" And “Perhaps it is time to make the plunge back into stocks, or maybe into metals?” Perhaps it is time to do something -- to react to this relative calm -- to re-allocate portfolios in some new fashion to take advantage of this perceived unique window in time.

-cut-

Yet, at times like this, we often find that real patience is the greatest investment asset. To remain idle and watchful is often the most difficult path. Conversely, while it is easy and always “feels good” to leap onto the latest three day trend, taking comfort that things are on the mend, usually periods like this tend to resolve themselves with abrupt psychological changes, a pre-opening event, an overnight catalyst, a mid session disappointment, something unexpected that ends up kick starting the next round of downside trouble. What could that event be? While your guess is probably as good as mine, perhaps the Fed will not move as rapidly as Wall Street hopes to lower interest rates on Sept 18th. An autonomous Fed, seeking more independence from its Wall Street lap dogs, departing from the Fed Funds Futures Expectations and the days of rapid “Greenspanian” mollification, -- what a headache that would be in the making. A market rallying into that time frame and then selling off amid disappointment thereafter -- that could be the beginning of the next serious move lower. Intuitively, I believe we are in a period of great hidden danger, and one of great hidden risk. How so? Well, just look at the Bond Funds for a moment.

-cut-

Because so many of these structured products have been securitized across the entire financial system, we today face the prospect of an interlinking spider web, wherein asset market write downs at SIV’s (Short Term Investment Vehicles), Pension Funds, Mutual Funds, Banks, Hedge Funds, Brokerage Firms, and Money Market Funds can quickly impact counter-party values. In coming weeks and months, the further downside price action in housing prices is also likely to affect loan collateral values, opening up a broad array of things that can go wrong in the CDO, CMO, and CLO crowd. And then of course, there is the US Consumer, who in recent years was content to use housing inflation as a surrogate for a traditional pool of savings. Not only will housing deflation now impact disposable income spending patterns, the downside of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW), but in some cases, where debt abuse was extreme, Home Equity Loans (HELOC) will also become a burden, especially with so much of the financial economy now handing out pink slips. Already leading Credit Card companies are reluctantly acknowledging a build up in late payments, always a reliable indicator for recession.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Reports
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jul
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 5.0

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 08/31
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -3486K

2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #2
24. July pending home sales index falls 12.2% - lowest since Sept 2001
04. July pending home sales index 16.1% below year-ago
10:00 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

05. Monthly pending home sales index lowest since September 2001
10:00 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

06. July pending home sales index falls 12.2%
10:00 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 2 minutes ago
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. U.S. pending home sales fell 12.2 pct in July
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0519736220070905

WASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell by a surprising 12.2 percent in July as credit tightened up amid troubles in the housing and subprime mortgage sectors, a real estate trade group said on Wednesday

The National Association of Realtor's Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in July, fell to a reading of 89.9, the lowest since September 2001 when the index stood at 89.8.

The fall was much bigger than the 2 percent decline in the index economists were expecting for July and helped paint a bleaker picture of the housing market moving forward.

"It's difficult to fully account for mortgage disruptions in the index, and our members are telling us some sales contracts aren't closing because mortgage commitments have been falling through at the last moment," the realtor's economist Lawrence Yun said. But he added that while some concerns remain, since mid-August the market appears to be stabilizing.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
66. Beige Book:
01. Beige Book sees little change in overall price pressures
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago

02. Beige Book reports tightening of bank credit standards
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago

03. Beige Book finds downward pressure on home prices nationwide
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago

04. Beige Book finds 'modest to moderate' retail sales
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago

05. Beige Book: Four of 12 districts report slower activity
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago

06. Beige Book: Market turmoil has small impact outside housing
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago

07. Fed Beige Book says economy continued to expand through Aug.
2:00 PM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 13 minutes ago
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mojavekid Donating Member (993 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #66
67. Bloomberg: Fed's Report Says Economic Effect of Market Turmoil `Limited' *Cough*
Edited on Wed Sep-05-07 01:31 PM by mojavekid
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avGbxwWzINKE&refer=home

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve found the effects of the August credit-market rout on the broader economy ``limited'' beyond the housing industry, according to its regional business survey.

``Outside of real estate, reports that the turmoil in financial markets had affected economic activity during the survey period were limited,'' the Fed said in the survey, which concluded before Aug. 27 and was released today in Washington. ``Economic activity has continued to expand'' nationwide, the Fed said in the Beige Book report, named for the color of its cover.

snip...

Officials were forced to cut the interest rate on direct loans to banks on Aug. 17 and shift their policy focus to growth, rather than inflation. The Fed chief suggested in his speech that the Fed is prepared to cut the discount rate further or use additional tools to ease market strains.

Worst Since 1982

The collapse of the housing boom is taking its toll. Residential construction has subtracted from economic growth for six straight quarters, the longest streak since 1982, and lopped 0.6 percentage point off the expansion in the second quarter.

``Most districts reported weak or declining residential sales and declining or stable prices,'' though there were some pockets of strength, the Fed said. At the same time, commercial real estate was ``generally stable to expanding'' with ``somewhat tighter credit conditions,'' the Fed said.

Manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in five months in August as buyers cut orders of furniture and computers, the Institute for Supply Management's index showed yesterday. The report is one of the first indicators to provide a glimpse of how the mortgage crisis may be affecting spending.

more...



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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #67
68. "Smoke 'em if you got 'em!"
Oh, they already are!


Dow is down 190pts now.

hmmm...markets not taking Fed at its word??

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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 03:17 PM
Response to Reply #68
75. These people probably drink (and snort, or even shoot) rather than smoke, I reckon.
Now, when I get to smokin' the homegrown, man, let me tell ya (on second thoughts, I'll tell you later, when there's more time), I get to see everything SO CLEAR that it's just so obvious that, uh, hang on.,.. ¿What was I talking about?

Oh yeah, that's it: THE END IS NIGH!!!

;-)
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #68
79. You and Ghost are too funny....
Edited on Wed Sep-05-07 09:41 PM by AnneD
We have to go to Canada to light up round here. It's enough to make you wish for glaucoma:smoke:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:41 AM
Response to Original message
3.  Oil, gas futures rise on storm worries
NEW YORK - Oil and gas futures rose Tuesday on expectations the hurricane season will intensify and that OPEC won't boost production when it meets next week.

Hurricane Felix slammed into Central America near the Nicaragua-Honduras border as a Category 5 storm early Tuesday, then weakened. While Felix and an earlier hurricane, Dean, have largely spared oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, a Colorado State University forecaster on Tuesday said six more hurricanes are likely this season. Three of those storms will be major, hurricane expert William Gray said.

-cut-

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices fell 0.1 cent to $2.779 a gallon, reversing a trend that had seen prices rising in advance of Labor Day. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures market, peaked at $3.227 a gallon in late May.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 2.21 cents to settle at $2.0795 a gallon, and October natural gas rose 16.1 cents to settle at $5.629 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:44 AM
Response to Reply #3
4.  Oil holds above $75, U.S. crude stocks seen draining
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held above $75 on Wednesday, within sight of an all-time high, as investors balanced tightening U.S. crude stocks against OPEC's reluctance to boost supplies when it meets next week.

-cut-

Crude inventories in the world's top consumer were expected to decline by 400,000 barrels after bad weather interfered with imports. Gasoline stocks were seen down by 1.5 million barrels, a Reuters poll showed prior to Thursday's release of weekly U.S. data.

-cut-

Prices have climbed 1.6 percent this week, towards a record high of $78.77 hit on August 1, as Hurricane Felix threatened the Gulf of Mexico. But Felix weakened to a tropical storm after hitting the Caribbean coastline of Nicaragua and Honduras.

It looked unlikely to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico, the home of Mexico's major oilfields.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070905/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_5
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 06:57 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. And here I thought the end of summer driving would lessen demand
Silly me.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #3
37. It's $3.24 here--where is it $2.78?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #37
42. Atlanta
$2.66 down the street from here.
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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #37
77. Here in Oregon (Tigard) it is...
but that's up about 5cents overnight. :(
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:48 AM
Response to Original message
5.  Mattel recalls 800,000 lead-tainted toys
NEW YORK - Mattel Inc.'s reputation took another hit after the world's largest toy maker announced a third major recall of Chinese-made toys in little more than a month because of excessive amounts of lead paint.

The latest action, which involved about 800,000 toys and which was announced late Tuesday, is yet another blow to Mattel. The news, along with other recent recalls of tainted Chinese toys from other toy makers, could also make parents even more nervous about shopping for toys this holiday season.

The latest Mattel recall, whose details were negotiated by the Consumer Product Safety Commission, covers 675,000 Barbie accessories sold between October 2006 and August of this year. No Barbie dolls were included in the action.

The recall also included 90,000 units of Mattel's GeoTrax locomotive line and about 8,900 Big Big World 6-in-1 Bongo Band toys, both from the company's Fisher-Price brand. The Big Big World products were sold nationwide from July through August of this year, while the GeoTrax toys were sold from September 2006 through August of this year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070905/ap_on_bi_ge/mattel_recall
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:51 AM
Response to Original message
6.  OECD cuts U.S. forecast, recession not ruled out
DUBLIN (Reuters) - The OECD on Wednesday reduced its forecast for U.S. economic growth and recommended a rapid cut in interest rates to limit the fallout from a housing and mortgage market slump that has sparked global financial market turmoil.

In an update to its economic forecasts for major industrial nations, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development also said interest rates should not be raised for the moment in Japan or the 13-country euro currency zone.

It said it was impossible at present to evaluate the potential damage which broader financial market turmoil could add to the direct impact of a sharp downturn in U.S. housing and a defaults crisis in the subprime mortgage market there.

-cut-

The U.S. housing market downturn is widely regarded to have set in two years ago but the troubles caused by rising interest rates on already high-cost loans to poor, or subprime, borrowers surfaced later, recently triggering fears of a wider U.S. slump and global credit crunch.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070905/bs_nm/economy_oecd_dc
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #6
27. US economy 'heading for slowdown'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6979577.stm

The US economy will slow sharply in the second half of the year and the risk of it going into recession cannot be ruled out, the OECD has warned.

The 30-nation group of top economies said the global financial fallout from the current US sub-prime mortgage crisis would continue for some time.

But it said US consumers remained resilient while Europe was unlikely to be as badly affected as the US.

Uncertainty over the size of sub-prime losses has caused stock market turmoil.

Financial risk

The OECD said the contraction in the US housing market and the wider problems in the financial markets it has triggered would have a negative impact on the US economy.

...more...
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 05:58 AM
Response to Original message
7. Asia mostly higher, but Japan retreats
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets were mostly higher Wednesday, encouraged by Wall Street gains after a long holiday weekend. Hong Kong shares raced to a record high in early trading while Japanese stocks gave up early gains on losses in financials such as Sompo Japan Insurance and Mizuho Financial Group.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 24,097.07, coming off the record high of 24,283.15 that it touched earlier in the session.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 average was well on its way to end lower for the third straight day. The index fell 0.7% to 16,312.93 by late afternoon, after it rose as high as 16,553.22 earlier in the day. The broader Topix index declined 1.1% to 1,578.71.

Andrew Sullivan, director of sales at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Hong Kong, said the weakness in Japanese shares was because of the stronger yen, local companies' preference to hold cash rather than distributing it among shareholders and the absence of "any real pickup in domestic consumption".

Sullivan said although the markets had "repriced" some risks related to the subprime loans market, investors were still being cautious.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/asia-mostly-higher-japan-retreats/story.aspx?guid=%7B80DE80EA%2D131C%2D44D7%2DB880%2D48BA46D2739A%7D
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 06:02 AM
Response to Original message
8.  NovaStar survival at risk as First American cuts jobs
NEW YORK (Reuters) - New fallout from the U.S. housing slump hit mortgage and real estate companies on Tuesday as subprime lender NovaStar Financial Inc (NFI.N) and title insurer First American Corp (FAF.N) announced job cuts and NovaStar's auditor expressed doubt the company will survive.

NovaStar scrapped plans to raise $101.2 million in a rights offering, saying auditor Deloitte & Touche LLP wouldn't be associated with the plan unless NovaStar amended its financial disclosures to include a statement "about the uncertainty of NovaStar's ability to continue as a going concern."

Kansas City, Missouri-based NovaStar also said it will cut 275 of 400 retail lending jobs and 12 retail offices, and explore "strategic alternatives" for its servicing business, including a partnership with another company. It had stopped making home loans through brokers on August 17. NovaStar expects to employ 600 people overall after the cuts, down from 2,048 at year end. NovaStar shares fell 15.7 percent.

-cut-

Companies associated with the housing market are struggling with increasing defaults, falling home prices, rising borrowing costs and tighter lending standards. Sales of previously owned homes fell in July for a fifth straight month, as the supply of unsold homes hit the highest level since October 1991, according to the National Association of Realtors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070904/bs_nm/mortgages_slump_dc_4
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:23 AM
Response to Reply #8
28. NovaStar's Falling
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/09/04/novastar-mortgage-jeffries-markets-equity-cx_ra_0904markets38.html

As the mortgage industry flounders NovaStar Financial, a residential mortgage lender and portfolio manager, is also fighting to stay afloat, and may yet take its shareholders down with it.

On Tuesday, NovaStar (nyse: NFI - news - people ) rescinded a $101.2 million stock offering because firm management was unable to meet the Securities and Exchange Commission's August 30 registration deadline. (See “ Life Left In NovaStar”)

NovaStar also said it will restructure its operations by reducing its retail lending organization from 400 to 125 employees and close 12 retail sales offices in order to manage its mortgage securities and securitized residential loans, which totaled $15.5 billion as of June 30. The firm said these changes will take place immediately and be completed in the fourth quarter.

The Kansas City, Mo.-based company’s shares plummeted 15.9%, or $1.35, to $7.14 in afternoon trading Tuesday.

NovaStar was unable to meet the SEC’s deadline because its auditor, Deloitte & Touche, refused to sign off on the offering unless the company added a footnote to its 2006 financial statements that outlined the company’s risk as a going concern, said Valentin. Deloitte & Touche also wanted the company to add a $46.1 million judgment against its subsidiary NovaStar Home Mortgage in California and its decision to suspend wholesale operations and cut back retail loans on Aug. 17.

...more...
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 06:05 AM
Response to Original message
9.  U.S. stocks head for lower open
NEW YORK - U.S. stocks headed for a lower open Wednesday a day after Wall Street rallied on hopes for an interest rate cut.

Investors are waiting for economic data that could help indicate whether the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark federal funds rate when it meets in two weeks. The Fed's Beige Book, which describes economic conditions in regions around the country, is due Wednesday afternoon.

The Fed has held rates steady for more than a year in a bid to reduce inflation that remains above its comfort level. The Beige Book could help indicate whether the economy has been slowed by a stumbling housing market, rising mortgage defaults and tightening access to credit. Stock markets have been volatile for more than a month over such concerns.

-cut-

Early Wednesday, Dow futures fell 53, or 0.39 percent, to 13,403. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 7.30, or 0.49 percent, to 1,482.30, and Nasdaq 100 index futures slipped 7.25, or 0.36 percent, to 2,017.50.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070905/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
10. Daily Reckoning Exerpt
The risk of recession is increasing, according to a Bloomberg report. Both business and personal spending are being curtailed by tightness in the credit channel. At the top end, some half a trillion dollars worth of deals are said to be stuck...unable to get financing. At the bottom, ordinary homeowners are facing up to ‘life without refinancing’. It’s not exactly that they are being forced to live within their means; instead, they are just discovering what their means are.

GDP in the United States is growing at a reasonable pace , but the growth is not showing up in paychecks. Our old friend, Scott Burns, reports that wages grew less than inflation during eight of the nine years between ’88 and ’96. Then, in the most recent 10 years, wages beat inflation in almost two of every three years. But the gain was so slight – just $10.61 per week for the whole period – that is was probably erased by rising health care premia. Incomes have been stagnant for at least a generation, says Scott.

Recession is inevitable. And with recession will come a lower dollar, say George and Helen Pardee, writing in the Financial Times.

“Now is the time to sell the dollar,” they say.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
12. dollar watch
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.999 Change +0.062 (+0.08%)

Last trade 80.999 Change +0.062 (+0.08%)

US Fed: Dismal NFPs On Friday Could Be the Key to a September Rate Cut

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Fed__Dismal_NFP_s_On_1188926134618.html

The Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole yielded some interesting comments from several central bank officials. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke garnered the most attention, however, as he tried to reassure investors that the central bank will be supportive of the financial markets but also said that they are not prepared to 'bail out' investors with a rate cut quite yet. Given Bernanke's notation that the Fed will be watching the 'timeliest' indicators, we have to assume that he is referring to labor market data. We will get our next taste of it this Friday when non-farm payrolls for the month of August will be released. Current estimates of 108K look fairly optimistic, as job losses in the financial sector leave this week’s market numbers likely to disappoint. The question is: will it be enough to convince the Fed to cut rates?

This Week in Central Bank Speak:
US Fed: Dismal NFP’s Could Be the Key to a September Rate Cut
BOJ: On the Path to Rate Normalization?

Yield Spread Analysis 08/28 – 09/04

As volatility has cooled throughout the markets last week, government fixed income instruments have followed suit and have sent bond yields rocketing higher. However, the gains were focused mainly on the short-end, leading many yield curves to invert quite a bit. The reason? Bonds with shorter maturity times are more sensitive to changes in monetary policy and have reacted to the fact that many central banks have turned from holding a hawkish stance to either neutral or slightly dovish stances following the spike in volatility. For example, the European Central Bank was widely expected to raise interest rate on September 6th once ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet reinserted the phrase “strong vigilance” back into his rhetoric. However, he has since backpedaled, noting that he said that before the shake up in the markets. While interest rate futures are still pricing in one more 25bp hike before year end, there is a good chance that Trichet will defer it until October.

Looking ahead, traders should remain keenly aware of risk aversion trends, as this has been the main driver of price action in equities, bond, and forex markets. However, multiple central bank meetings this week could add substantial volatility, and Australian, Canadian, European, and UK bonds could be especially susceptible.

...more...


US Dollar: Will Bernanke Bow to Political Pressure?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar__Will_Bernanke_Bow_1188940308264.html

The Dow is up 91 points on the first day of trading in September and in the third quarter. Although this has helped to lift carry trades, the US dollar’s rally against the Euro and British pound as well as the mixed performance of bond yields suggests that the financial markets have not turned suddenly optimistic. US economic data was weak with both manufacturing ISM and construction spending falling short of expectations. Activity in the manufacturing sector was the slowest in 4 months while construction spending was the lowest in 7 months. Even though vehicle sales were stronger than expected the Dow is higher today for no other reason than the fact that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this month. A 25bp rate cut has been fully priced in and there is a 58 percent chance of a half point cut. Although the markets have been calling for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for months now, this would still be the first time in over a year that the Federal Reserve has actually altered their lending rate. Another reason why the rally in carry trades may not continue is because September tends to be a difficult month for the Dow. Over the past 50 years, the Dow has had an average return of -1.35 percent from the beginning to the end of the month. If the relationship between carry trades and the Dow continue to hold, then that would mean a difficult month for carry trades as well. The Challenger layoffs report and ADP employment survey are due for release tomorrow along with the Beige Book report. For those who are not convinced that the Fed will lower interest rates, and there are a decent amount of people who still don’t, the labor market reports this week could be the deciding factor. Congress has returned from Summer Recess and we expect a lot of finger pointing over the next few months. They will be looking for someone to blame the subprime and credit debacle on as well as pressuring the Federal Reserve for solutions. The fact that Senator Dodd and not the Fed Chairman was the first to tell the markets last month that the Federal Reserve has pledged to use “all tools available” to avert a housing and credit crisis suggest that Bernanke will act in a way that will please the consensus later this month. For the time being however, the Federal Reserve will probably remain on the fence until more economic data is released.

...more...


Dollar Strengthens In Uncertain Market

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_Strengthens_In_Uncertain_Market_1188989196328.html

Plenty of seesaw action today as high yielders first rallied in Asia, then dropped after cautious comments on sub-prime risk by newly appointed FSA chief Watanbe sent the Nikkei plunging, only to recover once again as European markets opened for business. Japan’s chief financial negotiator Yoshimi Watanabe made headlines today when he stated that he will monitor credit market losses carefully, which alarmed Asian investors sending the Nikkei sharply lower and lifting the yen in the process. Many of the high yieders were sold hard on the yen crosses and as a result of the liquidation euro, pound and the commdolars all weakened against the greenback.

However, the start of European trade stabilized the market with the pound particularly boosted by better than forecast PMI services numbers. Services sector activity increased to 57.6 during August- significantly higher than market expectations of 56.5. The PMI service news comes on the heels of better manufacturing PMI data as well suggesting that despite the turmoil in the capital markets and a multi-decade high exchange rate the UK economy continues to fire on all engines.

Today’s data is unlikely to move BOE to hike rates at this week MPC meeting, but does increase the chances of 6% rates before year end. For the time being BOE chief Mervyn King and company are far more likely to focus on the state of UK money markets which continue to be very jittery with sterling 3 month Libor rates still unusually high as banks remain wary of extending credit. Nevertheless, should capital markets stabilize, UK along with Australia, will offer the strongest prospect of a rate hike this year, amongst industrialized nations as both economies continue to performing above expectations.

...more...
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #12
51. Dollar falls on signs of slowing growth
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2007-09-05T160445Z_01_N05221839_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-9-REPEAT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The dollar tumbled on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment and housing data stoked fears that a lingering credit crisis is starting to put the brakes on U.S. economic growth.

The biggest blow came courtesy of data showing pending U.S. home sales in July hit their lowest level since September 2001, sapping investor risk appetite and sending U.S. stock indexes lower.

"It's a shocker. It's downright ugly," said David Mozina, head of foreign exchange strategy at Lehman Brothers in New York.

Separate reports Wednesday showing surprisingly weak private-sector job growth in August and a surge in the number of lay-offs announced by U.S. companies also caused dealers to price in a 7-in-10 chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point at its meeting on Sept. 18.

The reports amplified market unease about a housing slump that has grown more severe as defaults on risky subprime mortgages have increased. It also hinted that a recent string of firm U.S. economic data may be coming to an end. Continued...

/...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:15 AM
Response to Original message
13. Citigroup could face "conduit" SIV risks: report
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070905/bs_nm/citigroup_siv_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) and other banks could find themselves burdened with affiliated investment vehicles that issue 10s of billions of dollars in short-term debt, the Wall Street Journal said in its online edition on Wednesday.

The investment vehicles, known as "conduits" and structured investment vehicles (SIVs), are designed to operate separately from the banks and off their balance sheets, the report said.

Citigroup owns about 25 percent of the market for SIVs, representing nearly $100 billion of assets under management, the Journal said.

Citigroup has told investors in its SIVs that they are sound and there hasn't been any suggestion of problems with Citigroup's SIV or conduit vehicles so far, the report said.

But recent turmoil in the commercial paper market has raised concerns that SIVs and conduits could face problems that would force the banks affiliated with them to step in, the report said.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:20 AM
Response to Original message
14. US lay-offs surge 85 pct in Aug vs July-survey
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0518188020070905

NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Planned U.S. lay-offs rocketed in August as the housing slowdown and subprime mortgage debacle led to record job cuts in the financial sector, an independent report showed on Wednesday.

Announced lay-offs surged 85 percent to 79,459 in August from 42,897 in July, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, an employment consulting firm. August's job cuts were the highest since February, when they totaled 84,014.

"Nearly half of the August cuts came from the financial sector, as dozens of mortgage and subprime lenders caved under the pressure of a sinking housing market," Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a statement.

Financial job cuts totaled 35,752 in August, the highest monthly total for the industry since Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking in 1993, the firm said.

August's job cuts rose 22 percent from the previous August, when 65,278 cuts were announced.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. Layoffs surge 85% on mortgage meltdown: report
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/layoffs-surge-85-mortgage-meltdown/story.aspx?guid=%7B5CE30368%2D9A19%2D4FC6%2DA9E1%2D38F8BAE91EBF%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Tens of thousands of jobs were lost in August because of the widening problems in the mortgage industry, according to the monthly tally of layoff notices released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

Corporate layoff announcements surged by 85% to 79,459 in August, the second highest total of the year after layoffs had fallen to a one-year low in July. August job reductions were up 22% from August 2006.

So far in 2007, announced job cuts are about 4% lower than through the same period a year ago. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.

"The story in August revolves around the dramatic collapse of the mortgage and subprime lending markets," said John Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm. Dozens of lenders "caved under the pressure of a sinking housing market."

The financial sector eliminated 35,752 jobs in August, nearly half of the jobs lost in the month. Overall, the financial sector -- which includes banks, insurance, real estate and mortgage companies -- has shed 102,758 workers so far this year, more than the total cut in the sector in all of 2005 and 2006.

...more...
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #18
39. Morning Marketeers...
Edited on Wed Sep-05-07 11:51 AM by AnneD
:donut: and lurkers. Excuse me while I tune up my violin.

:nopity: When hundreds and thousands of folks in the auto industry got pink slips-these folks applauded and said things like, world economy, lean and mean, can't compete because health care and benefits make it too expensive .

When airlines-esp some of the legacy carriers went bankrupt, these folks shrugged and said things like the pension benefits are bankrupting the company-they can't compete because the benefits are too expensive.

When merger mania hit businesses and massive layoffs followed, these folks applauded because they got a few cents per share profit and said things like this will maximize the share value for the stockholder, forget that most of those that were laid off were not only shareholders but had a very important stake in the company.

When stats came out stating the salary inequity between CEO and the average worker, when it became known that workers couldn't replace that salary with one job, but several part time jobs, these folks applauded because they continued to see the dividends of their shares go up a few pennies.

When companies outsource manufacturing jobs, then skilled white collar jobs, these folks applauded say that we had to face global competition on labour costs. We weren't competing with Joe Smith making 60K per year but VJ Patel making 15K (30000 rupee)per year.

So now, responding to a confluence of local and international pressures, the financial world is having to lay off and outsource....

:nopity: well, my give a damn is busted.

And FYI...if you think the Bush administration is suddenly the middle class home owners pal, wanting to do something for 'these hard working folks'-you are totally off track. The only reason he wants to help is that some of his 'have more friends' are about ready to lose their collective shirts in these hedge fund schemes that they can't get out of. I really don't think Bush reads the papers-but I think more than one influential friend called him on the phone and gave him a 3 second warning that the shit was about to hit the fan.

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #39
43. rapier sharp analysis AnneD
Hedge funds, those unregulated multi-billion dollar boogers, are about to throw the 'haves' and 'have mores' under the bus.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #43
64. No way. Taxpayers will find themselves obliged to bail the high-rollers out.
Otherwise, right on, AnneD. BTW, "middle-class" price/cost-inflation in India appears to have been, frankly, phenomenal in recent years.

I'm cursing myself for not having invested in a nice apartment in the right part of Mumbai (Bombay) or similar a few years ago... Although I always fancied Kerala, down south, as somewhere to spend my final years.

But I'm resisting the travel-itch and sticking to offshore (Spanish) Africa, for roots, for now.

And I cry for my long-abandoned birth-country, England.
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NC_Nurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #39
54. Well said.
How's the school nurse thing going? Having a good start to the year, I hope. :hi:
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #54
58. It's the usual craziness....
how can you be in the second week of school and be 2 months behind:shrug:
Thanks for the good thoughts:hi:
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NC_Nurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #58
60. That's bureaucracy for you.
They set you up to run in the wheel like a hamster...
You're welcome for the good thoughts. I always enjoy your posts, but I
read them at night usually. Today I got off early. Yay!!!

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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #60
62. Enjoy your day off...
I know it is well deserved.:toast:
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #39
57. Where's that Rainbow Stew, AnneD?
:hangover:

:rofl:

You tell them! :thumbsup:
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #39
70. Yeh, it's going to get ugly
And Bush, Bernanke, Greenspan, Cheney are only lookin out for their ultra-rich buddies. Can't let their big greedy pockets be empty.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #14
21. Employee confidence lowest since Katrina
23. Employee confidence lowest since Katrina
8:27 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 1 hour ago

24. Hudson employment index falls 6.6 points in August
8:27 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 1 hour ago
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Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #21
33. *'s photo-ops in Iraq aren't doing much for Americans any more
who'da thunk?
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #33
59. Well, since most can't afford Cable TeeVee or Newspapers anymore...
Nobody sees them.

:)
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:22 AM
Response to Original message
15. $500 million found missing from Sentinel's books: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0546613720070905

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Regulators probing the collapse of fund manager Sentinel said an examination had revealed that more than $500 million was missing from its accounts, the Financial Times reported in its online edition on Wednesday.

Dan Roth, president of the National Futures Association, said the NFA had discovered a $505 million shortfall in Sentinel's books, the report said.

The development could raise questions over a settlement reached last month in conjunction with hedge fund Citadel Investment Group involving some of Sentinel's creditors, the report said.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:26 AM
Response to Original message
16. Fed urges loan holders to avoid defaults
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070905/ap_on_bi_ge/mortgage_defaults

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve and other banking regulators issued special guidance Tuesday urging loan service companies to work with borrowers in danger of defaulting on their home mortgages.

The guidelines are not mandatory, but the regulators expressed hope that companies that collect payments on mortgages would heed the advice.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said mortgage collectors have the authority under existing accounting and tax rules to help deserving borrowers.

"More and more consumers with subprime and hybrid mortgage products are facing the very real prospect of losing their homes through foreclosure as their payments reset and become unaffordable," Bair said in a statement. "It is vital that mortgage servicers work proactively with borrowers facing much higher payments as their interest rates reset."

The banking regulators' guidance issued by the Fed and other agencies followed President Bush's announcement Friday that his administration was putting forward proposals aimed at preventing defaults expected over the next two years as the housing industry endures a serious downturn.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 07:28 AM
Response to Original message
17. ADP Aug. private-sector employment up 38,000
04. ADP Aug. private-sector employment up 38,000
8:16 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

06. ADP employment report weakest since June 2003
8:16 AM ET, Sep 05, 2007 - 10 minutes ago
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:38 AM
Response to Reply #17
30. U.S. hiring slowest in four years, ADP says
U.S. hiring slowest in four years, ADP says
Private-sector employment grew by 38,000 in August

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/august-hiring-slowest-four-years/story.aspx?guid=%7B3A6EB3E4%2DE4B0%2D4554%2D992D%2DCCE1695AD29E%7D

Employment in the U.S. private sector grew by 38,000 in August, the weakest in four years, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

The ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls may have grown much slower than the 120,000 anticipated by economists. See Economic Calendar.

It was the second straight weak reading in the ADP index; July's reading was revised lower to 41,000 from 48,000 initially reported.

"A deceleration of employment may be under way," ADP said in a release.
Adding in some 27,000 government jobs not covered by the ADP report, it suggests nonfarm payrolls grew by about 65,000.



WHEEE!!!

Gotta love a hot, robust economy that, uh, umm....well...doesn't produce jobs!!!!

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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 08:27 AM
Response to Original message
19. Good morning everybody! I'm playing this simulation market game..
And it keeps telling me I have no options. I don't know how to by options. Any suggestions?
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mojavekid Donating Member (993 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
20. Gold consumption (in India) may cross 1,000tn this year
http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage_c_online.php?leftnm=11&bKeyFlag=IN&autono=27284

Gold consumption in India is likely to cross the 1,000-tonne mark for the first time if prices remain stable or grow steadily, according to World Gold Council (WGC).

Consumption rose over 70% to 528 tonne in the first half of the current year from 307 tonne in the corresponding period last year. The consumption was a little over 700 tonne in 2006.

snip...

Rural households are large consumers of gold in India. Last year, 60% of the demand for gold came from rural India, and WGC says the trend is likely to continue.

"The reason behind this is the growing affluence of rural India. Besides, they have fewer investment options than people in towns and cities," K Shivram, vice president, World Gold Council said. This trend is likely to continue as more and more retailers expand their networks to small towns and rural areas.

Globally, the consumption in the first half of the year was 1,480 tonne - an increase of 25% over the same period last year.

bit more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:01 AM
Response to Original message
22. Fed Pumping: Fed adds reserves via overnight repurchase agreement
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0520678520070905

NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it added temporary reserves to the banking system through an overnight repurchase agreement.

Federal funds, the benchmark overnight lending rate to banks, last traded at 5.313 percent, above the Fed's targeted rate of 5.25 percent.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. and again: Fed adds $8.5 bln in reserves through overnight repo
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0520857520070905

NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it added $8.5 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

The Fed said the collateral accepted on the overnight repurchase was made up of $8.5 billion of Treasuries. A total of $48.65 billion in bids were submitted for the overnight repurchase.

Federal funds, the benchmark overnight lending rate to banks, last traded at 5.25 percent, matching the Fed's targeted rate.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #22
53. Bank (of England) moves to lower overnight rates
http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7Bd30cfdb2%2Defe6%2D4c99%2Dbdea%2D5c153f16affc%7D

The Bank of England on Wednesday raised its aggregate reserves target for the next month in a move to lower the overnight London interbank lending rate, which has climbed steadily in recent weeks. The Bank raised its target by 6 per cent to £17.6bn and said it would add a further 25 per cent if the overnight London interbank lending rate (Libor) did not return to more normal levels. An increase in reserves increases the pool of money which commercial and settlement banks can tap over the next month. It also in effect allows them to borrow at the repo rate of 5.75 per cent, rather than market rates or the Bank’s standing lending facility rate of 6.75 per cent. “The Bank’s move was quite surprising, because so far they have shown a very tough attitude toward the problems in the market, and had not intervened at all,” said Chiara Corsa, an economist at UniCredit. “The hope is that increasing the availability of funds would improve the liquidity situation.” The Bank said the increased target should help “relieve some pressure on interest rates for overnight borrowing which have, a times during the maintenance period over the past month, been unusually high.” The maintenance period is the 30-day interval between central bank meetings.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #53
65. ECB pledges further action if needed
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/370f2db0-5bb6-11dc-bc97-0000779fd2ac.html

The European Central Bank announced on Wednesday that it is ready to intervene again to relieve tension in financial markets, the day before its governing council meets to discuss interest rate policy.

The ECB’s pledge to launch a fresh liquidity-boosting operation on Thursday if necessary, followed sharp rises in overnight interest rates and an earlier attempt by the Bank of England to calm financial market pressures. Euro overnight interest rates had earlier hit 4.685 per cent, almost as high as on August 9 when the ECB injected an unprecended €94.8bn into money markets.

In a statement, the ECB said that volatility in the euro money market had increased that it was “closely monitoring” the situation. It went on: “Should this persist tomorrow, the ECB stands ready to contribute to orderly conditions in the euro money market.”

Its action undermined the ECB's recent claims that conditions in money markets were normalising.

/...
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #22
56. According to SGS, M3 money supply growth largest in 34 years.
All these Bernanke bucks are gonna drive inflation thru the roof.

http://www.shadowstats.com
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
25. 10:04 EST numbers and blather
Dow 13,315.79 133.07 (0.99%)
Nasdaq 2,612.23 18.01 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,472.52 16.90 (1.13%)

10-Yr Bond 4.515% 0.043


NYSE Volume 272,459,000
Nasdaq Volume 263,104,000

09:40 am : With the major indices up 4.1% on average over the last four days, a sense that stocks are overbought on a short-term basis has prompted some early profit taking.

As evidenced by a 1.3% sell-off in the Financial sector right out of the gate, which removes a significant source of market support, a fresh round of concerns that the credit turmoil will crimp corporate profits is among the biggest catalysts tempting participants to question current valuations.

Citigroup (C 46.50 -0.71), which The Wall Street Journal reported may be vulnerable to SIV losses since it owns about 25% of the market, cut estimates on two investment banks (e.g. LEH, MS). A 1.5% in Dow component Citigroup, which also ranks among the five most influential names on the S&P 500, is partly why the broader market is turning in the worst performance among the majors.DJ30 -86.08 NASDAQ -14.30 SP500 -11.45

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.3.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are off their morning lows but still trade well below value to indicate a lower start for stocks. While yesterday’s gains were solid, the fact that another day of below average volume left stocks susceptible to some late-day profit taking further underscores the lack of conviction behind recent buying efforts and the underlying angst among investors.

With regard to what is shaping up to be a dismal day for financial stocks, Citigroup (C), which reportedly owns about 25% of the market for SIVs, has cut estimates on two investment banks (e.g. LEH, MS), has left valuations in already beaten-down area even more vulnerable. Libor trading around 5.7%, the highest it's been above the fed funds target since the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, is also acting as an early headwind for rate-sensitive areas like banks and brokers.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.8. Within the last 15 minutes the monthly ADP employment report showed that only an estimated 38K new private jobs were created in August. That's the slowest pace in four years, suggesting that an employment deceleration may be underway, and equates to roughly 65K nonfarm jobs. The ADP data follow a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas that showed August's job cuts were the highest since February, led by record job cuts in the financial sector.

The response in stocks, though, has been rather muted since the ADP report lacks credibility compared to Friday's more closely-watched and well-established August nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to check in around 110K.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #25
35. 11:30 EST More profit taking?
Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 13271.33 -177.53 -1.32%
• NASDAQ 2609.61 -20.63 -0.78%
• S&P 500 1470.21 -19.21 -1.29%


Looks like somebody is shaking the old apple tree.

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
29. OT: Iraqi Government Has Not Met Most Legislative, Security, and Economic Benchmarks
http://www.usatoday.com/news/pdf/2007%200904%20gao%20report2.pdf

The January 2007 U.S. strategy seeks to provide the Iraqi government with the time and space needed to help Iraqi society reconcile. Our analysis of the 18 legislative, security and economic benchmarks shows that as of August 30, 2007, the Iraqi government met 3, partially met 4, and did not meet 11 of its 18 benchmarks. (See next page). Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds. These results do not diminish the courageous efforts of coalition forces.

The Iraqi government has met one of eight legislative benchmarks: the rights of minority political parties in Iraq’s legislature are protected. The government also partially met one other benchmark to enact and implement legislation on the formation of regions; this law was enacted in October 2006 but will not be implemented until April 2008. Six other legislative benchmarks have not been met. Specifically, a review committee has not completed work on important revisions to Iraq’s constitution. Further, the government has not enacted legislation on de-Ba’athification, oil revenue sharing, provincial elections, amnesty, or militia disarmament. The Administration’s July 2007 report cited progress in achieving some of these benchmarks but provided little information on what step in the legislative process each benchmark had reached.

Two of nine security benchmarks have been met. Specifically, Iraq’s government has established various committees in support of the Baghdad security plan and established almost all of the planned Joint Security Stations in Baghdad. The government has partially met the benchmarks of providing three trained and ready brigades for Baghdad operations and eliminating safe havens for outlawed groups. Five other benchmarks have not been met. The government has not eliminated militia control of local security, eliminated political intervention in military operations, ensured even-handed enforcement of the law, increased army units capable of independent operations, or ensured that political authorities made no false accusations against security forces. It is unclear whether sectarian violence in Iraq has decreased—a key security benchmark--since it is difficult to measure the perpetrator’s intent and other measures of population security show differing trends.
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Changenow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:49 AM
Response to Original message
31. What is a safe way for
a small investor to buy foreign currency?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #31
38. AAA Travelers Checks Were Recommended
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MattSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #31
40. Buying foreign currencies??
1) Well, investing in Euros directly isn't as easy as it should be. Most banks cannot help you here. The only US bank I'm aware of that has accounts that can be held in Euros is Everbank.

http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?affid=eb

2) Another option is the Euro EFT (exchange traded fund), available through brokerages. Symbol FXE.

San Francisco, CA (OPENPRESS) January 12, 2006 -- The world of Exchange Traded Funds continues to expand into uncharted territory. Rydex Investments has launched the first Currency ETF. Each share of the ETF will represent 100 euros plus accrued interest. In this way an investor can gain when the Euro gains in price as well as accruing interest while the fund is held. Of course this would be true if the investor was long the fund. Exchange Traded Funds trade like stocks so if an investor believes the Euro is about to take a drop, the investor could short this fund like a stock is shorted. Each share of the trust represents 100 Euros.

http://www.theopenpress.com/index.php?a=press&id=6843

3) A third option is the PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund,” also available through brokerages. Symbol DBV.

DBV buys the three highest-yielding currencies in the world from a list of 10 major currencies, and sells short the three lowest-yielding ones.

The 10 currencies are all from stable countries. They are: U.S. dollars, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Swiss francs, British pounds, Australian dollars, New Zealand dollars, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, and euros.

4) You can also invest in gold, silver, and other precious metals, if you're into that. Either by buying the metals directly, or via an EFT, or even a group like GoldMoney.
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Changenow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #40
48. Thank you very much. nt
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #40
73. Thank you, n/t
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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
32. Roth capital Conference... presenting companies;;;
ROTH 2007 New York Conference
**EDAP TMS (EDAP)
Access Integrated Technologies Inc. (AIXD)
Actions Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (ACTS)
Actuate Corp. (ACTU)
ADA-ES Inc. (ADES)
ADAM Inc. (ADAM)
Advanced Photonix Inc. (API)
Aerogrow International, Inc. (AERO)
American Science & Engineering Inc. (ASEI)
Amerigon Inc. (ARGN)
Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI)
Anadigics, Inc. (ANAD)
Applix Inc. (APLX)
Art Technology Group Inc. (ARTG)
Artes Medical, Inc. (ARTE)
Ascend Acquisition Corp (ASAQ)
AspenBio Pharma Inc. (APPY)
AtriCure, Inc. (ATRC)
Auriga Laboratories Inc. (ARGA)
Avantair Inc. (AAIR)
Aware Inc. (AWRE)
AXT Inc. (AXTI)
Bakers Footwear Group Inc. (BKRS)
Ballantyne of Omaha Inc. (BTN)
Barrett Business Services Inc. (BBSI)
Barrier Therapeutics Inc. (BTRX)
Basin Water Inc. (BWTR)
Bidz.com Inc (BIDZ)
Bio-Imaging Technologies Inc. (BITI)
BioSphere Medical Inc. (BSMD)
Birks & Mayors Inc. (BMJ)
Blue Coat Systems Inc. (BCSI)
BluePhoenix Solutions Ltd. (BPHX)
Bookham Inc. (BKHM)
BooKoo Beverages, Inc. (BOKO)
BSQUARE Corporation (BSQR)
Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CADX)
Callidus Software Inc. (CALD)
Captaris Inc. (CAPA)
Cash America International Inc. (CSH)
Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners Inc. (CPRX)
Century Casinos Inc. (CNTY)
Channell Commercial Corp (CHNL)
Chardan North China Acquisition Corp. (CNCA)
Chardan South China Acquisition Corp (CSCA)
China Agritech Inc (CAGC)
China BAK Battery, Inc. (CBAK)
China Biologic Products (CBPO)
China Biotics, Inc. (CHBT)
China Direct, Inc. (CHND)
China Fire and Security Group Inc. (CFSG)
China Housing & Land Development, Inc (CHLN)
China Medicine Corporation (CHME)
China Organic Agriculture (CNOA)
China Public Security Technology, Inc. (CPBY)
China Security & Surveillance Technology (CSCT)
China Shenghuo Pharma Holdings (KUN)
China Yingxia International, Inc. (CYXI)
Chinacast Education Corporation (CEUC)
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)
City Telecom (H.K.) Limited (CTEL)
CKE Restaurants Inc. (CKR)
ClearPoint Business Resources, Inc. (CPBR)
Cleveland Biolabs, Inc. (CBLI)
Commtouch Software Ltd. (CTCH)
Comverge, Inc. (COMV)
Conmed Healthcare Management, Inc. (CMHM)
Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. (CPSS)
Cortex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (COR)
CryoCor, Inc. (CRYO)
Cuisine Solutions Inc. (FZN)
Cytogen Corporation (CYTO)
DATATRAK International, Inc. (DATA)
Day Software (DAYN)
DG FastChannel, Inc. (DGIT)
Diomed Holdings Inc. (DIO)
Dollar Financial Corp. (DLLR)
Duoyuan Digital Printing
DUSA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (DUSA)
Echo Healthcare Acquisition Corp. (EHHA)
Electro-Optical Sciences, Inc. (MELA)
Electronic Game Card Inc. (EGMI)
eMagin Corporation (EMAN)
EMCORE Corp. (EMKR)
Emrise Corp. (ERI)
Entrust Inc. (ENTU)
EZCORP Inc. (EZPW)
Far East Energy Corp. (FEEC)
First Cash Financial Services Inc. (FCFS)
FOCUS Enhancements Inc. (FCSE)
Fortress International Group, Inc. (FIGI)
Fundtech Ltd. (FNDT)
GameTech International Inc. (GMTC)
General Steel Holdings (GSHO)
Genesis Microchip Inc. (GNSS)
Genius Products, Inc. (GNPI)
Genta Inc. (GNTA)
GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM)
Global Sources Ltd. (GSOL)
GP Strategies Corporation (GPX)
Grill Concepts Inc. (GRIL)
GSE Systems Inc. (GVP)
Gulf Resources, Inc. (GUFR)
GVI Security Solutions Inc. (GVSS)
H2Diesel Holdings, Inc. (HTWO)
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc. (HALO)
Health Benefits Direct Corporation (HBDT)
Health Fitness Corporation (HFIT)
Health Grades Inc. (HGRD)
HearUSA Inc. (EAR)
House of Taylor Jewelry, Inc. (HOTJ)
Hythiam Inc. (HYTM)
I-Flow Corp. (IFLO)
I-Many Inc. (IMNY)
iGATE Corp. (IGTE)
II-VI Inc. (IIVI)
IMAX Corporation (IMAX)
Innovative Card Technologies Inc. (INVC)
Internap Network Services Corp. (INAP)
International Fight League, Inc. (IFLI)
International Stem Cell Corporation (ISCO)
InterSearch Group Inc. (IGO)
Inventure Group Inc. (SNAK)
Ionatron, Inc. (IOTN)
Ironclad Performance Wear Corporation (ICPW)
ISTA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ISTA)
Iteris Inc. (ITI)
Ivivi Technologies, Inc. (II)
Jingwei International Ltd (JNGW)
Joe's Jeans Inc. (INNO)
KANA Software Inc. (KANA)
Kintera, Inc. (KNTA)
Lakes Entertainment Inc. (LACO)
Landec Corp. (LNDC)
LanOptics Ltd. (LNOP)
LifeCell Corp. (LIFC)
LiveDeal Inc. (YPNT)
LivePerson Inc. (LPSN)
LJ International Inc. (JADE)
Matrixx Initiatives Inc. (MTXX)
Medical Action Industries Inc. (MDCI)
Microfield Group Inc. (MICG)
Microtune Inc. (TUNE)
Middleby Corp. (MIDD)
Modigene Inc. (MODG)
Modtech Holdings Inc. (MODT)
Monterey Gourmet Foods Inc. (PSTA)
Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA)
MRU Holdings Inc. (UNCL)
MRV Communications Inc. (MRVC)
Napco Security Systems Inc. (NSSC)
Natrol Inc. (NTOL)
Natus Medical Inc. (BABY)
Neogen Corp. (NEOG)
Nevada Gold & Casinos Inc. (UWN)
New Motion, Inc. (NWMO)
New Oriental Energy & Chemical Corp (NOEC)
NIC Inc. (EGOV)
Noble Roman's Inc. (NROM)
Obagi Medical Products, Inc. (OMPI)
Oculus Innovative Sciences, Inc. (OCLS)
Onstream Media Corp. (ONSM)
Oplink Communications Inc. (OPLK)
OSI Systems, Inc. (OSIS)
Osteotech, Inc. (OSTE)
Pacificnet Inc. (PACT)
PAR Technology Corp. (PTC)
Paradise Entertainment (1180.HK)
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA)
Perficient Inc. (PRFT)
Pericom Semiconductor Corp. (PSEM)
Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (PTEC)
PhotoMedex, Inc. (PHMD)
Planar Systems Inc. (PLNR)
Planet Technologies Inc. (PLNT)
Points International Ltd (PTSEF)
PokerTek, Inc. (PTEK)
PowerSecure International (POWR)
Princeton Review Inc. (REVU)
Progressive Gaming International Corp. (PGIC)
Radyne Corp. (RADN)
Raser Technologies Inc. (RZ)
REEDS, Inc. (REED)
Remedent Inc. (REMI)
Rentcash Inc (RCS.TO)
ROO Group Inc. (RGRP)
Rubio's Restaurants Inc. (RUBO)
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (SLXP)
Sciele Pharma Inc. (SCRX)
SCOLR Pharma Inc. (DDD)
Secure Computing Corp. (SCUR)
Silverleaf Resorts, Inc. (SVLF)
Silverstar Holdings Ltd. (SSTR)
Sinoenergy Corporation (SNEN)
Skystar Bio Pharma (SKBI)
SM&A (WINS)
Smart Online Inc. (SOLN)
Solar Power, Inc.
Sona Mobile Holdings Corp. (SNMB)
Specialized Health Products Int'l (SHPI)
SPSS Inc. (SPSS)
SRS Labs Inc. (SRSL)
Stockeryale Inc. (STKR)
Strategic Diagnostics Inc. (SDIX)
Sunair Services Corporation (SNR)
Supertex Inc. (SUPX)
Sutor Technology Group (SUOT)
TechTeam Global Inc. (TEAM)
Techwell, Inc. (TWLL)
Terabeam, Inc. (TRBM)
TheStreet.com, Inc. (TSCM)
Think Partnership, Inc. (THK)
TransAct Technologies Inc (TACT)
Trinity Biotech plc (TRIB)
Trintech Group (TTPA)
Tumbleweed Communications Corp. (TMWD)
Tutogen Medical Inc. (TTG)
UCN Inc. (UCNN)
Ultimate Software Group Inc. (ULTI)
Unigene Laboratories Inc. (UGNE)
Uroplasty Inc. (UPI)
Veri-Tek International, Corp. (VCC)
Vermillion, Inc. (VRML)
VeruTEK Technologies, Inc. (VTKT)
Vignette Corporation (VIGN)
VNUS Medical Technologies Inc. (VNUS)
Web.com, Inc. (WWWW)
WFI Industries (WFI.TO)
Whitehall Jewellers (BTVI)
Winner Medical Group (WMDG)
Workstream Inc. (WSTM)
WPT Enterprises, Inc. (WPTE)
Xcorporeal Inc.
Youbet.com Inc. (UBET)
Yucheng Technologies (YTEC)
Zagg, Inc. (ZAGG)
Zhongpin Inc. (ZHNP)
Zila, Inc. (ZILA)
Zones Inc. (ZONS)

* Subject to change
http://www.rothcp.com/default.aspx

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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
34. How To Turn Clean Energy Into a Powerhouse (Business Week)
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/sep2007/tc2007094_253556.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

Viewpoint September 5, 2007, 12:01AM EST text size: TT
How To Turn Clean Energy Into a Powerhouse
Better tax incentives and intellectual-property protections are essential to encourage innovators to unleash new technologies without fear
by Elias Blawie, Alison Freeman-Gleason, and Todd Glass

Silicon Valley venture capital is flowing again, but in a new direction: Energy and clean technologies are the next big thing. In 2006, North American VC investment in the energy and clean technology sector totaled $2.9 billion.

As the cost of energy and concerns about global warming and energy security continue to rise, companies focused on developing clean technologies and alternative power have enormous potential. Energy security and carbon emissions will define the future of energy in the U.S., China, India, the European Union, and most other countries for years to come.

But how sustainable is this industry? One problem is that despite investor enthusiasm, the VC community traditionally looks for rapid returns. Market cycles for newer clean technologies from early development to mass deployment often have longer time frames. And while the world's ever-growing need for energy suggests global market potential, can these technologies be deployed reliably and at a scale large enough for utilities and other large sectors of the economy to adopt and use?

Some suggest that a clean-tech bubble is likely, similar to the boom and bust in alternative energy in the 1970s or the Internet and telecommunications in 2000. In fact, some investors are forming funds to buy distressed properties from ethanol production on the assumption that overinvestment will lead to half-built projects on sale for pennies on the dollar. Also, available investment capital appears to be greater than the number of companies with good technology, experienced teams, and significant market potential.

Make Tax Incentives Long Term
Despite the warning signs in certain sectors, such as ethanol, we see a clear path to developing and sustaining robust markets and businesses in energy and many other clean technologies. But the industry is at an inflection point: Will it gain real traction or end up as another fad and set of buzzwords? If we are to avoid another investment bubble where "carbon footprints" become a forgotten yardstick, we must address several private and public issues.

This industry cannot be built on a system of mercurial tax incentives. Tax incentives that pop up one year, only to disappear the next, do more harm than good. The current federal investment and production tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2008. If they are not extended soon, the development and financing of most solar and wind projects in the U.S. will grind to a halt about halfway through next year because such new projects cannot be placed in service before the credits expire. A more effective tax regime would take a longer view, building an incentive window of 5 to 10 years, gradually tapering to create a stable, predictable environment for investment, development, and deployment.

The development of energy technologies that are economically viable independent of tax incentives is paramount. In the long run, these emerging technologies need to be able to compete with conventional technologies in a free market. Within the next 5 to 10 years, wind, solar, and clean coal technologies could become viable and deployed at scale without tax incentives. To reach a scale that cuts costs and makes a difference, the cost and risk associated with clean technologies must become conventional enough that utilities—which are risk-averse and conservative by nature—will own or purchase the output of these new energy facilities.

While there are a healthy number of burgeoning clean-tech companies, if the industry is to thrive, we need to support aggressive research and development of underlying technologies in ways that go beyond the entrepreneurial arena. These include fields from materials sciences and engineering that drive semiconductor and photovoltaic technologies to biological research relevant to producing clean fuel stocks.

Bigger, Bolder R&D
The reality is that the money applied to R&D is currently well below where it could be. In the past, universities have led the development of technologies Continued>>>
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/sep2007/tc2007094_253556.htm?campaign_id=yhoo
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 10:43 AM
Response to Original message
36. What? NO Intervention? Testing the Bottom, or Keeping the Powder Dry
until the last 45 minutes?
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #36
44. Have you noticed the pattern to the DJIA?
After the weekend, the DJIA closes between 100 to 200 points higher. Then the next day it closes flat or down 100 to 200 points. When it closes down 100 to 200 points (one or two days later), the Fed comes to the rescue on Wednesday or Thursday and the average closes up for the next day. Then it usually closes on Friday about flat or up. Then after the weekend, the average closes between 100 to 200 points higher only to fall later in the week. Then the Fed comes in......on and on we go.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #44
46. Yep, it is in the same narrow band, relatively speaking
no intervention... I think we have not seen any bottom yet
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
41. lunchtime check-in
12:23
Dow 13,296.20 Down 152.66 (1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,613.53 Down 16.71 (0.64%)
S&P 500 1,472.93 Down 16.49 (1.11%)

10-Yr Bond 4.475% Down 0.083

NYSE Volume 1,017,427,000
Nasdaq Volume 847,379,000

12:00 pm : Stocks are trading near session lows midday as more credit concerns and weak data on the housing and employment fronts spark a wave of widespread profit taking.

With the major indices up 4.1% on average over the last four sessions, a sense that stocks are overbought on a short-term basis was already weighing on early sentiment; but it didn't take long for the absence of key leadership early on to exacerbated early weakness.

As evidenced by a 2.0% sell-off in the Financial sector, which plunged right out of the gate to remove a significant source of market support, a fresh round of concerns that the credit turmoil will crimp corporate profits was the first shoe to drop this morning.

Reports that suggest Citigroup (C 46.20 -1.00) may be vulnerable to SIV losses, since it owns about 25% of the market, and some negative analyst commentary about brokers (e.g. MS -2.6%, LEH -3.3%) and banks (e.g. CS -2.1%, DB -2.0%) have left valuations in the already beaten-down sector susceptible to further interpretation.

The London interbank offered rate (Libor) climbing for a 10th straight session to 5.72%, which creates the biggest disparity the Fed Funds target rate since the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, lends further evidence of the contagion effect from U.S. subprime mortgages.

Of the other nine sectors averaging declines of nearly 1.3%, Telecom (-2.0%), Utilities (-1.7%), and Consumer Discretionary (-1.6%) round out today's worst four performers. The latter was dealt an added blow, as was the overall market, after the National Association of Realtors reported at 10:00 ET that pending home sales plunged 12.2% in July.

That was the largest drop since the index began tracking the data in 2001 and prompted even more short selling in this year's worst performing S&P industry group. Homebuilders (-4.0%) are now down 47.5% year to date.

With all eyes on Friday's influential jobs report, another report showing weaker than expected payroll growth has also provided an excuse to lock in recent market gains. Before the market opened, the monthly ADP employment report showed that only an estimated 38K new private jobs were created in August. That's the slowest pace in four years, suggesting that an employment deceleration may be underway, and equates to roughly 65K nonfarm jobs, which is well below the 110K payroll growth economists' are expecting Friday.

Even though the ADP report was initially shrugged off, it has since garnered added attention when combined with the weak housing data as further signs of weak economic growth have fueled the worst of fears about a possible recession. BTK -0.1% DJ30 -172.01 DJTA -1.7% DJUA -1.4% DOT -0.5% NASDAQ -20.49 NQ100 -0.7% R2K -1.4% SOX -1.3% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -18.80 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2054/778/750 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2597/571/500 mln
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #41
45. I just chekced before starting work for the day
Yeah, so sue me, California and I work at home

THAT IS UGGLY

And there is more

It looks to me that this is now going up one day, going down the next...

It is jnust sloshing and hanging around a very specific narrow band

Let the chapmpagne cork :sarcasm: as we indeed are doing well, really
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Eugene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
47. Gov't Official: Hit to Economy Not Over
Source: Associated Press

Gov't Official: Hit to Economy Not Over

By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

(09-05) 09:12 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) --

The full impact of the upheaval in financial markets "has yet
to play out," a top administration official said Wednesday,
while stressing that the effect will be dampened somewhat
by solid economic growth.

Robert Steel, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance,
appeared before a House committee as the worst housing
slump in 16 years and roller coaster financial markets cast a
shadow on the economy.

"What we have is a severe lack of investor confidence," said
Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial
Services Committee. He said he hopes that Congress and
the administration will work together on solutions for the
mortgage squeeze.

Stocks fell sharply Wednesday morning, as a nervous Wall
Street digested a report showing a large drop in pending
home sales. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped
about 160 points in morning trading.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/09/05/national/w091252D08.DTL
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
49. European shares drop, US data flags slower growth
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-09-05T163311Z_01_L05901179_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - European shares broke five straight days of gains on Wednesday after soft U.S. data flagged cracks in the U.S. economy and a rise in short-term lending rates to six-year highs weighed on bank stocks.

HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile , Research), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile , Research), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile , Research) and UniCredit (CRDI.MI: Quote, Profile , Research) were among the top negative weights on the European market after a series of downgrades to other components of the banking sector this week, while credit markets remained under stress.

U.S. data showed job creation in the private sector rose at its slowest pace in six years in July, while a measure of pending home sales fell to its lowest since September 2001 and planned layoffs surged by 85 percent in August because of the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market.

Financial futures <0#FF:> show investors now expect two cuts to the federal funds rate this year.

This drove the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares down 1.7 percent to end at 1,522.63 points, off from the high for the day at 1,549.62 points.

"What's really knocked the market this afternoon is this weak data out of the U.S.," said CMC markets analyst David Jones.

The index is still up nearly 3 percent so far this year, having risen for eight out of the past ten trading session, but is down almost 7 percent from the 2007 highs in mid-July. Continued...

/...
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. FTSE falls 1.7 pct as data, interbank rates weigh
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=londonMktRpt&storyID=2007-09-05T160016Z_01_L05883682_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index fell 1.7 percent and broke a five-day winning streak as tightness in money markets underlined fears of a worsening credit squeeze and weak U.S. data raised concerns over the health of the economy.

The FTSE 100 .FTSE closed down 106.1 points, or 1.66 percent at 6,270.7, only the second down day since Aug. 17 when the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its discount rate to calm jumpy investors. European shares also finished lower on Wednesday.

Data showed an index of U.S. pending home sales hit its lowest level in six years in July and U.S. private employers likely added fewer jobs in August than analysts had expected.

They raised further concerns about the outlook of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of a crisis in the risky subprime mortgage sector.

"We are going to go through a long erratic period. There is absolutely no certainty that this crisis is anywhere near over," said Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC Partners.

"Until the markets have confidence that the credit markets can return to some form of normalcy, the amount of business that can be done is going to be extremely limited," he said, adding that a U.S. interest rate cut would alleviate the problem.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose strongly to suggest aggressive Fed action on rates this month after weak employment and housing data suggested economic growth could be slowing. Continued...

/...
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #49
52. European equities hit by US economic outlook
http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B97079450%2D84ab%2D4756%2Dba7c%2D16da104cb972%7D

Heavy losses on Wall Street triggered by weak US home sales data ended Europe’s three week rally on Wednesday. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was 26.78 points, or 1.7 per cent, weaker at 1,522.63. The Xetra Dax 30 shed 1.7 oer cebt ti 7,588.03 in Frankfurt, while the CAC 40 lost 2.1 per cent to 5,551.55 in Paris. Renault led French stocks sharply lower as a note from UBS warned that the car maker’s 44 per cent stake in Nissan made it more exposed to a US economic slowdown than Porsche or any of the German automobile groups. While Renault lost 4.1 per cent to €95, Porsche closed 0.3 per cent higher at €133. Volkswagen slipped 1.2 per cent to €150.35 despite continued talk that Porsche was adding to its 31 per cent stake in Wolfsburg-based VW. Back in Paris, Peugeot slid a further 3.8 per cent to €57.13 as analysts digested Tuesday’s disappointing strategic review from the Citroën owner. West LB slashed its stance on the stock from “buy” to “hold” while Dresdner concluded it was “not totally convinced” by Renault’s plan to increase sales and cut costs.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
55. Seth Tobias is sleeping with the fishes-
I stole it from another thread


CNBC commentator Seth Tobias found dead in Florida pool



Wall Street big shot Seth Tobias was mysteriously found dead yesterday in the swimming pool of his Florida mansion, police said.

Tobias' wife found the well-regarded CNBC commentator's body about 1 a.m., floating facedown in his pool in an exclusive section of Jupiter, Fla., near Palm Beach.

"I don't want anybody to jump to any conclusions," said Sgt. Scott Pascarella, a spokesman for the Jupiter police. "We aren't even classifying it as a suspicious death at this point."

There were no obvious signs of foul play.

Skip

Seth Tobias' firm was embroiled in a battle for control of QSGI, a Hightstown, N.J.-based computer services company. Reports of Tobias' death sent QSGI's stock plunging 18% yesterday.

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/tv/2007/09/05/2007-09-05_cnbc_commentator_seth_tobias_found_dead_.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2978403

Ok, I admit that I got the DVD set of the Godfather for my birthday and I have been watching it again.......but doesn't this seem like Luca Brasi hit?
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
61. How about this juicy nugget.....
HIGHTSTOWN, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--QSGI, Inc. (OTCBB: QSGI - News) mourns the loss of Seth Tobias, founder and CEO of Tobias Bros., Inc., who passed away this weekend.
ADVERTISEMENT


Marc Sherman, chairman and chief executive, commented, "We are saddened by the death of Seth Tobias, who was a personal friend. As one of our largest shareholders, he brought tremendous insight and was a major asset to the company. We would like to wish our condolences to his family and colleagues at Tobias Bros. We will deeply miss him."

About QSGI

QSGI provides a full suite of information technology solutions to help corporations and governmental agencies better manage hardware assets, reduce maintenance expenses, build best practices for data security and assure regulatory compliance. With a focus on the entire range of IT platforms - from the PC to the mainframe, the services offered by QSGI are specifically designed to reduce total cost of ownership for IT assets and maximize the clients' return on their IT investment.

For enterprise class hardware in the data center, QSGI offers hardware maintenance services, hardware environment planning and consultation, refurbished whole systems, parts, features, upgrades and add-ons. Additionally, for desktop IT assets, servers and SAN products, QSGI offers a range of end-of-life services that include: automated asset auditing, Department of Defense (DOD) level data destruction, documentation for regulatory compliance, hardware refurbishment with worldwide remarketing or proper IT asset recycling. Given the sensitive nature of the company's client relationships, it does not provide the names of its clients. Additional information about the company is available at www.qsgi.com.







http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070905/20070905005477.html?.v=1
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #61
63. Folks on CNBC this a.m. were very upset...
but, I didn't catch how he died. As a CNBC watcher from way back, he was familiar. Interesting he was one of the larger shareholders in QSGI...which sounds like an "interesting" *cough, cough* company.

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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #61
69. "Department of Defense (DOD) level data destruction"
Hmmm...
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #69
72. That jumped out...
when I first read it. There are many ways to off a person and make it look accidental. And if the coroner is incompetent-well that's just gravy. He had several homes and he traveled. Pick your spot.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #72
74. Well, in the Brit case (what case?) of the WMD scientist Dr. David Kelly,
the coroner and his court were simply removed from the case, by fiat, from the highest level, as quickly as possible, better to permit judgement by the paid for media (facilitated by the "Hutton Enquiry") which, even the Guardian (don't talk to me about the BBC), somehow already knew (and without investigating other than to dismiss any real evidence) was a case of suicide. Uh huh.

However, I should add, in the present case, other than what I have read above I know nothing.

But I'm sure DU will do its best to ferret out the hard truth.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #74
78. Who knows...
but never underestimate the value of knowing where the bodies are buried.
It may be nothing it may be everything.

I never was happy with the outcome of the Dr. Kelly case. It stank like a week old fish. I could smell it all the way over here.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #61
71. Just Google...
qsgi Tobias and you get all kinds of interesting stuff. He needs a CSI autopsy but I don't know if I would trust the results.....very interesting in a Carlyl sort of way.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-05-07 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
76. the end
Dow 13,305.47 Down 143.39 (1.07%)
Nasdaq 2,605.95 Down 24.29 (0.92%)
S&P 500 1,472.29 Down 17.13 (1.15%)

10-Yr Bond 4.473% Down 0.085

NYSE Volume 2,991,598,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,999,210,000

4:20 pm : Stocks closed off their lows Thursday but still finished with widespread losses. Renewed worries about credit markets and data that failed to fuel rate cut hopes left the major indices looking overbought on a short-term basis, especially after averaging gains of more than 4.0% over the prior four sessions.

Weakness began overseas after a senior Japanese government official reignited worries that losses from U.S. subprime mortgages will spread. That sparked further unwinding in the yen carry trade and contributed to a 1.6% decline on Japan's Nikkei 225.

The major European bourses plunged 1.8% on average as the London interbank offered rate (Libor) climbed for a 10th straight session to 5.72%. That's the highest since the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and now stands 47 basis points above the Fed Funds target, more than double the 21 basis-point average over the last five years and lending further evidence of the contagion effect from the U.S. subprime fallout that prompted Lehman to downgrade two European banks (e.g. CS -1.8%, DB -2.1%).

The Wall Street Journal reporting that Citigroup (C 45.99 -1.22) may be vulnerable to SIV losses, since it owns about 25% of the market, also left valuations of financial stocks susceptible to further interpretation. A 2.6% decline in the Dow component, which also ranks among the five most influential names on the S&P 500, is partly why the broader market turned in the worst performance among the majors. The heavily weighted Financial sector tumbled 1.3% right out of the gate, which removed a significant source of market support, and closed down 2.1% to pace all 10 sectors finishing lower.

Not even Technology (-0.9%) was able to shrug off lingering credit concerns. The belief that Tech is the most immune among all economic sectors to subprime woes has helped it surge more than 12% this year, which ranks it second only to Energy. However, two of the influential sector's bellwethers -- Microsoft (MSFT 28.48 -0.33) and Apple (AAPL 136.76 -7.40) -- slashing the prices of their digital music players put margins under the microscope and tempted investors to take some money off the table.

The Energy sector's inability to finish in positive territory, even as oil prices closed at a fresh one-month high, further underscored the broad-based nature of today's sell-off. Its more than 20% year-to-date advance, though, made it ripe for a pullback.

Meanwhile, after initially shrugging off a disappointing monthly ADP report, the National Association of Realtors reporting at 10:00 ET that pending home sales plunged 12.2% in July, the largest drop since the index began tracking the data in 2001, pushed the S&P 500 through its 50-day moving average. It was never able to recover and now stands more than 5.0% below its July 19 record close.

Today also marked the release of the Fed's Beige Book, which will be used at the September 18 FOMC meeting to help policy makers formulate their views on business conditions compiled from the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks. However, the report offered little insight as to how the Fed will respond to the current mortgage-related credit crunch and failed to increase the argument for a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. DJ30 -143.39 NASDAQ -24.29 SP500 -17.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1990/988/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2426/905/1.38 bln
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