Hurricane Felix Now Category 5

[Hissyspit]

Source: CNN

Hurricane Felix hits fiercest possible rating -- Category 5

NEW: Hurricane Center: Felix hits Category 5 with winds as high as 165 mph



(CNN) -- Hurricane Felix strengthened to a Category 5 Sunday evening with winds approaching 165 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. Felix became a Category 4 hurricane Sunday as it churned through the Caribbean Sea.

At 8 p.m. ET, Felix's center was 625 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving west-northwest at about 18 mph, the NHC said.

Category 5 is the fiercest kind of hurricane with winds greater than 155 mph and storm surges greater than 18 feet above normal. Watch CNN's Josh Levs present footage of the storm from CNN's i-Reporters »

Although a tropical storm watch remained in effect Sunday afternoon for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island, all watches and storm warnings for the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao had been discontinued.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/weather/09/02/storm.felix/index.html

[Redstone]

1. Where is it now? Where is it headed?

Redstone

[Kagemusha]

2. This GD thread seems to indicate Mexico's direction.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1720708

Posted a very short time ago it seems.

[Hissyspit]

3. Looking for link. n/t

[CC]

5. Here is one link with info.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200706.html

[Redstone]

8. Thanks, CC, and the others who responded. Damn, you only have to ask a question once

on DU, and you get seventeen answers, and every one of them is helpful.

Any further questions as to why I like this place so much?

Redstone

[CC]

55. I used to be a Floridian

and still have family there so I follow the tropical weather closely. My brother lost his roof in Charley and suffered through 3 more hurricanes before they could even start repairing the roof. It became a whole house deal but he finally got it all finished this year. Besides in another life I would of been a meteorologist.

[TomInTib]

4. I hope you are not in Belize.

They're gonna get whacked.

[Redstone]

10. As luck would have it, I might have been in Costa Rica, but that deal fell through

just like it has the last four times.

Listen to me: Never, EVER get involved with a group of people who want to build a casino in Costa Rica. That involvement hasn't cost me much actual money, but God DAMN has it been a waste of my time, over and over since 2002.

But hey, it's Mrs R's family chasing that pie in the sky. And who can say no to family?

Redstone

[TomInTib]

16. Don't get involved in anything commercial down there unless..

it involves ex-pat housing.

In the event of a military coup, you could lose everything.

At least, that's my take on CR.

But I do know about and empathise with you on that "family" business.

[Redstone]

24. But Costa Rica doesn't HAVE a military....Uh, hold on just a cotton-pickin minute;

do you know something I don't know about Central America, and I bet you do?

I shit you not, mon ami, there's serious money in play in this deal, though the deal tends to be progressing, and then not, then resurfacing again as such deals do. But it's not dead yet, and the numbers are good ones. The business plan seems solid, even containing (considerable) expenses in a vaguely-named column that consists of what we all know that they are, though we'd never publish a prospectus containing that word that begins with "b" and rhymes, sort of, with "rides."

I'd thought that with Arias involved again (and has there ever been more of a National Hero than that guy?), there was an amount of stability that's rare in that part of the world...

I don't doubt that you know more than I do on this subject. I'd be forever in your debt if you'd send me a PM with anything you know about that part of the world.

Redstone

[arcos]

46. Arias is an ass, and he is a corrupt...

But I highly doubt he's involved in casino bribes. Hydroelectric, telecommunications, insurance, infrastructure bribes? Sure, I wouldn't doubt it.

Not casino bribes though... And this is coming from someone who hates Arias as much as any Democrat hates Bush.

[CC]

56. My brother lived in Belize for a while

working for a friend's dad that owned 3/4 of Belize forest. They do not need a military to take it all away. Mark's dad lost all of his holdings in Belize when they decided to nationalize the forest. They knew it was coming and did ok in spite of losing all that land but my bro and Mark loved being there and missed the life. Tell the family to check the laws on other nationals owning property and to pay close attention to what is happing in Costa Rica all the time.

[arcos]

45. Military coup?

Huh, I think you got the wrong country....

[TomInTib]

50. Guardia Civil, Guardia Rural

Same thing, basically.

They could take the country overnight. And we cannot afford to back Arias militarily.

We own a good chunk of land in Dominical, and the natives are a little unsettled right about now.

The influx of expat US money is the only thing keeping them happy, as far as I can tell.

[arcos]

54. LOL!

Yes, they *could* take the country overnight, as well as the US military *could* blow up the moon... My point is that there's no chance whatsoever of that taking place.

Everyone is a little unsettled right now... the country is divided, etc, but we have always worked on peaceful solutions, and that will not change. Costa Ricans hate anything related to the military, armies, coups, violent demonstrations, etc... it is pretty much a part of our identity as a nation. We hate extremists, and that's pretty obvious when both our "right wing" (currently in government) and our "left wing" are some of the most moderates in the continent.

[fed-up]

30. my sister is, but made it through Dean w/only drizzle-this looks much worse nt

[Up2Late]

26. Here's the current storm track and wind field model, looks like Belize City's in the cross-hairs...

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200706N.html>



<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200706N_0H.html>

[Ediacara]

27. This looks to be almost the same path as Dean, just slightly more to the south

[TechBear_Seattle]

6. Sattelite links

http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

Look at area B1, which shows the whole Atlantic.

[whistle]

7. Wow, it has really been powered up since earlier this morning

...That will create a major path of destruction, I hope and pray that the people in those islands will take cover in high ground.

[skids]

29. Yeah, the word "DAAAAAYUUUM!" comes to mind. n/t

[murray hill farm]

9. And has there ever been a Cat. 6?

It is going to happen! Maybe this year.

[RL3AO]

11. There is no Cat 6.

[RL3AO]

13. Felix has strengthened quicker than Wilma.

4.71mb drop per hour for 15 hours.

EDIT: Didn't mean to reply to myself.

[soothsayer]

14. there is talk of creating that category

[RL3AO]

15. There is no need to.

[spirit of wine]

17. Cat 5+ It must be like the heavyweight category in boxing

Where a person can be 220 pounds or 350 pounds. As long as they can give a half-ass effort to promote the sport, and spar there will be someone to box with.

[kestrel91316]

28. Yet.

[Occulus]

32. I think it may be time for one n/t

[Redstone]

12. Inevitable, indeed, as the waters get warmer.

Redstone

[Up2Late]

23. Hey mexicoxpat !! Good to see you back with us!

Haven't seen you around much since Wilma hit you in 2005, how's your recovery going?

Did Hurricane Dean get you at all?

[murray hill farm]

52. Hi from me!

I have been around, you just didnt see me....ha! I sold my house in Mexico...after repairs, etc. in the spring after Wilma...and moved to Brunswick, GA...which is where I still live now.

[POAS]

18. 165 sustained - - Gusts to 200 mph n/t

[RL3AO]

19. The record is 190mph sustained.

[POAS]

20. Man that would be a ride!!!!

[RL3AO]

21. And we will have 6 people flying into this system in about 4 hours.

[Aviation Pro]

22. The turbulence level and the Groupel have caused....

...the mission to be terminated. The aircraft is headed back to St. Croix. Five hours ago Felix was a Category 2. My gut feeling based on the water temperatures ahead is that the surface pressure may drop below Wilma's within the next six hours.

[RL3AO]

25. It can't.

Wilma was in an area of low pressure. Felix is in an area of very high pressures.

[Aviation Pro]

33. Uh, I teach this stuff for a living....

...I think I know what I'm talking about. The area of high pressure you're refering to is an upper level high (also called an anti-cyclone) which allows outflow from the hurricane and causes subsidence (sinking) ahead of the cyclone creating a temporary high. Trust me on this, the storm is its own center of low pressure (except for the eye) which will continue to fall rapidly as convection increases from the warmer waters ahead.

[RL3AO]

34. It might have a chance after an EWRC, but not until.

[Aviation Pro]

37. Then you know that a Cat 5 can't be sustained for any period of time....

...and yes, you're right, the eyewall replacement is the determinant factor before landfall. Forward motion is going to be key and critical to further intensification. Also, we'll see if the high in the Gulf gets replaced by a trough toward the end of forecast period...which will make things somewhat sporty if that happens.

RLTW

[Aviation Pro]

35. Whoops, another 4mb drop since the 2000 update.....

...

[RL3AO]

36. Only 49 to go.

[MilesColtrane]

31. Wow. It doubled in intensity in 24 hours.

My brother's in Curacao and reported that things were breezy this morning.

Hope this thing doesn't change directions.

[IndianaGreen]

38. The only Cat 5 we had before were Andrew and Katrina. This is the second Cat 5 this summer

and the second consecutive one.

One of the predictions of Global Warming is more severe storms.

[RL3AO]

39. Did you forget...

Mitch, Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Rita, and Wilma?

[BadgerLaw2010]

49. Rita, Wilma, etc...and Katrina didn't hit at as a Cat 5 based on winds.

It did cause complete destruction, but it wasn't a 5 at landfall.

This would be two back-to-back Cat 5 landfalls, which hasn't happened before.

[RL3AO]

40. This is interesting.

303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT

[fed-up]

41. please explain for the layman.... thanks nt

[RL3AO]

42. The pressure went up.

[Penndems]

48. The lower the barometric pressure, the more intense the hurricane.

n/t

[Up2Late]

43. How important are ocean buoys these day? Because 2 of the S. Caribbean buoys are DOA

<http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html>

The two southern most Caribbean buoys (42057 and 42058) are currently dead.

<http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057>
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
Station 42057

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
10-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
16.83 N 81.5 W (16°49'47" N 81°30'0" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 293 m
Watch circle radius: 349 yards

In June, 2006, buoy 42057 was reestablished at the location above. It had previously been moored at 17.60N 80.75W.


Station 42057 failed on 07/03/07. It will be restored to service when it can be worked into the schedule. When the service date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report.

<http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058>

Station 42058 - Central Caribbean
Station 42058

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
10-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
15.09 N 75.06 W (15°5'33" N 75°3'52" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 4042 m
Watch circle radius: 3602 yards

Station 42058 failed on May 21, 2007. It will be restored to service when it can be worked into the schedule. When the date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report.

[RL3AO]

44. They are more helpful with weak systems. They can idenify if it has a circulation.

[sofa king]

47. Sheesh. I guess this is Mexico's year in the barrel.

[Stuckinthebush]

51. This year it looks like the intense storms are staying low in the gulf

It seems that in the past number of years the hurricanes would start low and move north-west hitting the US coast or northern Mexico. Is this an odd trend?

[RL3AO]

53. Most of the time, these storms (Dean and Felix) would both have curved into the Gulf of Mexico

and hit the U.S. But an incredibly strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic and Southern U.S. has kept them south.

[muriel_volestrangler]

57. Hurricane Felix makes landfall in Nicaragua

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hurricane Felix made landfall as a potentially catastrophic Category 5 storm in extreme northeastern Nicaragua, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The center said at 8 a.m. EDT the storm was moving westward at 16 mph (26 kph) and a hurricane warning was in effect from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, northward to the border with Honduras and for Honduras from Limon eastward to the Nicaraguan border.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0129218720070904

[dipsydoodle]

58. Larest BBC News link

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6976114.stm