Tropical Depression #4 forms

[cobalt1999]

Source: National Hurricane Center

WTNT44 KNHC 131458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS
MOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING
ONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE
RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE
EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK. A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.


Read more: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

---

And so it begins...

[cobalt1999]

1. Tracking map for those interested...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5+gif/145027W_sm.gif

[Mojorabbit]

2. Flossie might hit Hawaii

according to the latest runs and something is forming in the gulf( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200791_model.html ).

[Mojorabbit]

3. update on flossie

000
WTPA32 PHFO 131447
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.5 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 705 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE FLOSSIE ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. EVERYONE IN HAWAII IS URGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE BULLETINS AS THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...14.9 N...149.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[cobalt1999]

4. A cat 3 or cat 4 is tough.

I've sat through a few 3's and one 4. It's impossible to understand the power of a hurricane and the force of 100+ mph winds until you experience it.

I'm not sure, but does Hawaii get hit often? If not, do they have the construction standards to handle a Cat 3?

[maseman]

5. Storm clouds building over Gulf, Atlantic

NEW YORK - A tropical depression formed Monday in the eastern Atlantic Ocean while the Gulf of Mexico could see one as well in a day or two, the National Hurricane Center said.

A broad low-pressure area formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 90 miles north-northeast of Cancun, Mexico, the center said.




Man there is all of the sudden a lot of storms forming. COuld get real interesting in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20244316/

[alfredo]

6. Will 91l have time to develop into a hurricane?

[Mojorabbit]

7. I doubt it

This came out though
For 91L:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131430Z AUG 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 131500Z
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/131130Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 131200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 86.3W TO 25.7N 92.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.8N 85.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 30.0W
//

So it looks like they are watching it closely. I never discount anything this time of year.
Here is the latest model which can change from run to run

[alfredo]

8. I guess how fast it is moving could be a factor, but I've been watching

this for a couple days and it appears to be slow moving. #4 looks like it could be interesting, but there is a chance it will track north and miss the US. Look at the history graphics.

[Mojorabbit]

9. This just out on the gulf

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad low

pressure area has formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about

90 miles north-northeast of Cancun Mexico. Upper-level winds are

becoming more favorable for development of this system...and a

tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow as the low

moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Interests in the

western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

An Air Force Reserve reconnassiance plane is scheduled to

investigate this system tomorrow...if necessary.



I hope 4 recurves. My remaining oaks are putting out acorns for the first time since Charley. It would devastate me to lose the few I have left.

[cobalt1999]

10. curve, baby, curve!

I just re-landscaped after the damage from Ivan and Dennis.

[alfredo]

12. The southeast needs the rain from a Hurricane. They've been

suffering from a very bad drought.

Is it a white or black oak? If it is a white oak, you can easily eat the acorns.

[1monster]

11. Watch out for Tropical Depression #4 too.

[happyslug]

13. NWS says probably stay a Tropical Storm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm2+gif/145027123_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407T+gif/145027P_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?table#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?basin?large#contents

[cobalt1999]

14. Still a 40% chance for a hurricane in 72 hours.

Latest computer tracking models keeps it from curving up too.

[ohio2007]

16. 40% ? Thats a very low approval rating to becoming a hurricane

Thats like saying 60% against a big bag of wind developing

[appleannie1]

15. Flossie

HONOLULU — Hurricane Flossie roared toward Hawaii's Big Island today with its sustained wind increased to 140 mph, and was expected to retain much of its strength by the time it passes nearby.

Forecasters earlier had expected the storm to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained wind of at least 74 mph, by the time it passes about 70 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

But today forecasters said they now expected a Category 3 hurricane, with sustained wind of at least 111 mph, to pass the islands, particularly the southern portion of the Big Island.

The National Weather Service placed the Big Island under a hurricane watch this morning, meaning hurricane conditions were possible within 36 hours. A flash flood watch was also issued for the island through Wednesday.

.

[Akoto]

17. Ugh. Guess I better go ahead and get the boards out ...

I live in Florida, and the current tracks are beginning to suggest that this'll be a close shave for me.