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FourScore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-09-07 11:03 PM
Original message
Mortgage Losses Echo in Europe and on Wall St.
Source: NYT

Turmoil in the home loan market ricocheted from the United States to Europe and back again yesterday as stocks on Wall Street suffered their biggest one-day decline since February, reflecting growing concerns about tightening credit worldwide...

SNIP

...Yesterday’s sell-off started in France, after BNP Paribas, the largest publicly traded bank there, suspended investors’ ability to remove money from three funds that had invested in American mortgage securities. The bank said it had become temporarily unable to place a value on the funds, which have turned sour as increasing numbers of homeowners have defaulted on their loans...

SNIP

...BNP became the latest European lender to announce problems linked to American home loans. Late last month, a group of German government-backed banks agreed to bail out a bank based in Düsseldorf, IKB Deutsche Industriebank, that invested in riskier American mortgage securities. And yesterday, in the Netherlands, NIBC Holdings reported that it lost at least $188 million on investments in the American mortgage market for subprime loans. Problems have also cropped up at hedge funds and banks in Australia...

SNIP

“...There is certainly a liquidity crisis in the financial system that the normal players themselves are having a little bit of difficulty working out,” said Jane L. Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management, a bond firm in Burlington, Vt.

But the European bank’s extraordinary response — its first since Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington — deepened investors’ anxiety.

“The E.C.B. ignited a fear that there is something really bad going on that the markets don’t yet know about,” said Jacob de Tusch-Lec, a fund manager at Artemis Investment Management in London. “It will take time until investors are sure that this is not the case...”






Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/10/business/10markets.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
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fed-up Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-09-07 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. "something really bad going on that the markets don’t yet know about"-but DUers knew/know nt
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. "Something bad going on that the markets don't
know about yet".

Exactly. There has been a steady stream of articles in the LBN, for months now about the coming crisis.

It was never a question of "if" but "when". And that 'when' is now.
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Dj13Francis Donating Member (343 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-09-07 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. Amazing
I find it amazing that people who work in the financial arena are so clueless as to what is really happening. I've known about this eventuality since I took economics in college, back in the mid 1990's. I used to work in the mortgage industry but got out about five years ago, knowing the problems that were coming. I guess I can't blame them too much. There are a lot of stupid people. Hell, damn near 30% think Chimpy is doing a good job!
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mrdmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. Welcome to DU!
About a year ago, I had an argument with my Economics Professor in front of the class about raising the interest rates. I said it is going to crush the housing market, and considering the housing market is a bubble waiting to burst, it may put this economy into a tail-spin. The Professor replied (paraphrase), 'The housing market will slow down, but it will not take down the whole economy. The economy has a whole is just to big for that'.

I also may mention he was for the Bush Jr. tax cuts because he felt the rich was paying way more than their fair share, that the middle class needed to pony up some more.

At this point we need to wait and see.
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-09-07 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
3. This does not look good
yesterday europe loaned banks billions and it looks like today it is spreading to asia and australia.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5a7a5fe6-46f2-11dc-a3be-0000779fd2ac.html
Asia seeks to calm markets with extra cash

By Reuters August 10 04:29 BST

Central banks from Tokyo to Sydney injected extra cash into banking systems or pledged to do so on Friday, as Asia joined a global campaign by monetary authorities to calm panicky credit markets.

“What the central banks are doing is a concerted effort to inject liquidity. And the worrying thing is that they do that when the system is not functioning the way it should,” said Jimmy Koh of United Overseas Bank.

The moves came after the European Central Bank injected record amounts of cash to prevent a financial system seizure after European banks essentially stopped providing short-term funds to one another on Thursday. The US Federal Reserve also injected cash on a smaller scale.

The trigger was news that France’s biggest listed bank, BNP Paribas, had frozen $2.2bn worth of funds hit by US subprime mortgage woes, further increasing fears the subprime problems would squeeze credit markets worldwide.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan said it injected funds at its regular money market operation on Friday due to a slight rise in the benchmark overnight call rate.

The bank for the world’s second-largest economy offered to supply Y1,000bn ($8.45bn) in funds. Traders said the amount was at the higher end of market expectations, but was not a major surprise.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Friday added more than twice the usual amount of money into the banking system, injecting A$4.95bn ($4.19bn) in its regular morning money market operation.

While no reports had surfaced in Asia of a drying up of credit markets on par with the problems in Europe, financial markets took a battering.

Asian stocks slumped across the board and the yen extended its gains as investors dumped riskier assets following a rout in global markets sparked by a flare-up in credit jitters.
more at link

and this from PAUL KRUGMAN: Very Scary Things
http://freedemocracy.blogspot.com/2007/08/paul-krugman-very-scary-things.html
When liquidity dries up, as I said, it can produce a chain reaction of defaults. Financial institution A can’t sell its mortgage-backed securities, so it can’t raise enough cash to make the payment it owes to institution B, which then doesn’t have the cash to pay institution C — and those who do have cash sit on it, because they don’t trust anyone else to repay a loan, which makes things even worse.
And here’s the truly scary thing about liquidity crises: it’s very hard for policy makers to do anything about them.

The Fed normally responds to economic problems by cutting interest rates — and as of yesterday morning the futures markets put the probability of a rate cut by the Fed before the end of next month at almost 100 percent. It can also lend money to banks that are short of cash: yesterday the European Central Bank, the Fed’s trans-Atlantic counterpart, lent banks $130 billion, saying that it would provide unlimited cash if necessary, and the Fed pumped in $24 billion.

But when liquidity dries up, the normal tools of policy lose much of their effectiveness. Reducing the cost of money doesn’t do much for borrowers if nobody is willing to make loans. Ensuring that banks have plenty of cash doesn’t do much if the cash stays in the banks’ vaults.

There are other, more exotic things the Fed and, more important, the executive branch of the U.S. government could do to contain the crisis if the standard policies don’t work. But for a variety of reasons, not least the current administration’s record of incompetence, we’d really rather not go there.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
4. We have been waiting for this for a while folks
and I hope it is not here, but it does not look good
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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 01:11 AM
Response to Original message
6. I have to admit that when it comes to economics and such my eyes kind of glaze over...
but I was wondering if/how this affects getting a home equity loan or a refinance at this time?

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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 01:50 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Probably SOL till this settles out.
My best uneducated guess.
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. a home loan *might* be available if you have a hefty down payment
equity loans and re-fi is another thing, probably gonna be extremely difficult to get until things settle down
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 03:25 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Which makes even more sub-prime loans vulnerable to default....
those who want to refinance to a fixed rate mortgage are up a creek without a paddle. No one is going to lend them the money because they were borderline credit risks in the first place. And the beat goes on.

My daughter works for a foreclosure attorneys' firm. They're swamped.....there's so much work, people are crumbling under the pressure and quitting their jobs because they can't handle it. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. The worst is yet to come. Stay tuned folks, this is going to get very messy.
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mojavekid Donating Member (993 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 01:53 AM
Response to Original message
9. An enthusiastic plug for the daily SMW,
posted here every market morning. Ozymandius, UpInArms, 54anickel, and the rest of the marketeers are a wonderful resource. Nice find whereismyparty :thumbsup:
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. The SMW(Stock Market Watch) Is EXCELLENT!!
They'll be posting stories in 3-4 hours, and their efforts are appreciated.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 02:19 AM
Response to Original message
10. Markets Are Collapsing In Japan Right Now!!
TOKYO - Japanese stocks plunged Friday, following a sharp fall on Wall Street overnight, sparked by fears about a spreading credit crunch.

The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 issues shed 2.37 percent, or 406.51 points, to close at 16,764.09 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

The broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the exchange's first section, fell 2.96 percent, or 49.88 points, to 1,633.93 points.
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Broadslidin Donating Member (949 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 07:42 AM
Response to Original message
13. The strategy of Quietly Dumping the Corrupted US dollar is No Longer Viable.
Edited on Fri Aug-10-07 07:46 AM by Broadslidin
Thank You for the Paul Krugman link.
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-10-07 07:51 PM
Response to Original message
15. Notice that foreigners are not afraid to call out problems when...
they see them. The US media is telling us that there is nothing to worry about.
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