STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 1

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Friday June 1, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 598 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2340 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2052 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2013
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 31, 2007

Dow... 13,627.64 -5.44 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,604.52 +11.93 (+0.46%)
S&P 500... 1,530.62 +0.39 (+0.03%)
Gold future... 666.70 +7.40 (+1.11%)
30-Year Bond 5.01% +0.00 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.89% +0.01 (+0.25%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Our regular Friday Radfringe feature should return next week.


Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Have Global Stock Markets Become China Centric?
BY GARY DORSCH

Is the epicenter of the global stock markets shifting from Wall Street to Shanghai? For the third time this year, a sudden one-day plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen red-chip markets on May 30th, had global stock market operators holding their collective breath. Would Shanghai’s 6.5% plunge herald the bursting of a stock market bubble, and inflict big collateral damage to Asia’s economic locomotive?

Speaking before the world’s top central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 25, 2006, Stanley Fischer, the governor of the Bank of Israel, and former managing director of the IMF, figured if the Chinese and American economies grew at 10% and 3% respectively over the next two decades, the Chinese economy would account for 18% of global GDP, and overtake the size of the US economy by 2030. India’s economy would equal half the size of the Chinese economy.

-cut-

A big correction in Shanghai red-chips could wipe out Chinese personal wealth. The Chinese mainland’s two stock exchanges saw their market value surpass the country’s savings deposits for the first time in history on May 18th. Thus, a sharp plunge in the stock market, (if sustained for more than 24-hours), would spell big losses for Chinese households, shaking consumer confidence and spending.

-cut-

So it was of great interest on May 29th, in a very unusual move, that China’s Ministry of Finance made a midnight announcement through the Xinhua news agency that it had decided to raise the tax on stock transaction to 0.3% from 0.1%, a move “intended to help promote the healthy development of the securities markets.” The Chinese tax hike follows warnings by regulators of stock trading risks and triggered a one-day 6.5% shakeout in Shanghai that wiped out $161 billion of market value.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

21. Asian Stocks Rise to Record for 2nd Day; BHP, Samsung Advance

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aiFd.F3x3Bc0&refer=asia

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose to a second straight record, led by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Samsung Electronics Co., as prices of metals and memory chips climbed.

Toyota Motor Corp. jumped to a seven-week high on speculation U.S. sales gained in May. All 10 industry groups on the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose. South Korea's Kospi posted a record 13th week of advances.

``Corporate and economic fundamentals are very strong,'' said Agnes Deng, who helps manage $3.5 billion at Standard Life Investments Asia in Hong Kong. ``Those kinds of things are building some support levels for the stock market.''

China's CSI 300 Index fell, resuming a slump triggered by the government's May 30 decision to triple the tax on securities trades to try to cool the region's best performing equity market.

The MSCI index added 0.9 percent to 151.56 as of 4.01 p.m. in Tokyo after rising 1.3 percent yesterday to a record. The measure was poised for a 2.6 percent advance this week, the most since a similar period ended March 23.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.5 percent. Indexes rose to records in South Korea and the Philippines, which led gains in the region. Only benchmarks in China and New Zealand dropped, while Indonesia is closed for a holiday.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

22. China stocks end down 2.7 pct but rumours doubted

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070601:MTFH68360_2007-06-01_07-17-12_SHA103338&type=comktNews&rpc=44

SHANGHAI, June 1 (Reuters) - China's main stock index tumbled 2.65 percent on Friday in response to rumours that the government planned to impose a stock capital gains tax or take other strong tax steps to cool the market.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC> fell as much as 3.5 percent in late trade before coming off its low to end at 4,000.742 points, its lowest finish since May 16.

Many analysts and fund managers said they thought such a tax was extremely unlikely, especially since the market had already been showing signs of cooling after a hike in the stock trading tax this week.

"It is natural that some rumours like this are swirling when market sentiment is not stable," said Zheng Weigang, senior analyst at Shanghai Securities.

"But I don't think it's true as the government just wants to cool the market, not crash it."

However, jittery individual investors began selling heavily as the rumours spread.

Three officials from the finance ministry and tax administration dismissed the rumours as mere speculation, but middle-ranking bureaucrats in China are not always privy to sensitive policy decisions.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

23. Nikkei ends at 3-mth closing high, trading firms up

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070601:MTFH68148_2007-06-01_07-05-20_T106856&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - The Nikkei average rose 0.47 percent to close at its highest in three months on Friday, as trading firms rose on Morgan Stanley's higher target prices and retail investors bought steel and other value stocks.

Earlier in the day, the Nikkei topped 18,000, recovering about 80 percent of the losses it made during a global stock sell-off in late February. The benchmark is now down 1.9 percent from this year's high marked just before the sell-off.

"The recent recovery in bank and small-cap shares have given retail investors a buffer and they can now afford to invest in other stocks again," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities.

He also added that a strong performance in U.S. stocks supported the Japanese market.

"The Japanese market has struggled since the global sell-off in late February, but now concerns about another sell-off have subsided," he added.

The Nikkei <.N225> added 83.13 points to 17,958.88, the highest close since Feb. 27. The broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> also ended at its highest since Feb. 27, rising 0.69 percent to 1,767.88.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

37. European stocks hit highest close since Nov 2000

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-06-01T170246Z_01_L01423_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

FRANKFURT, June 1 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Friday led by mining and telecoms stocks and supported by strong U.S. economic data, with a benchmark index closing at its highest level in more than six-and-a-half years. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> ended up 0.9 percent at 1,625.91 points -- its highest close since Nov. 16, 2000. It hit 1,627.66 points earlier on Friday, the highest intraday level since Nov. 17, 2000.

The index rose 1.8 percent over the week and has gained 3.5 percent since the end of April.

"The rally is feeding the rally," said Giuseppe-Guido Amato, equities strategist at German brokerage Lang & Schwarz.

Key factors behind the latest upsurge were ongoing merger and acquisition (M&A) speculation, driven partly by private equity groups, and strong U.S. economic data, Amato said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

39. FTSE near 7-year closing high

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2007-06-01T163644Z_01_L31277963_RTRUKOC_0_UK-MARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - The FTSE 100 index .FTSE of leading shares rose to its highest close since September 2000 on Friday, buoyed by a flurry of U.S. data and supported by mining shares.

The index ended the session 55.3 points, or 0.8 percent higher at 6,676.7, after a U.S. government report showed that the number of new non-farm jobs climbed more than expected in May, reassuring investors about the prospects for consumer spending.

Investors were further boosted by a stronger-than-forecast reading of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for May and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index.

"It's been a buoyant...and not least on the back of the upbeat U.S. economic data, which has been universally positive," said Jimmy Yates, a dealer at CMC Markets.

"Rising copper prices are also helping boost sentiment as we move towards the close but for the time being equity markets just keep on going up, even if yield curves are looking flat to higher in the months ahead too."

/...

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty (Superbowl edition)

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls May
Briefing Forecast 130K
Market Expects 135K
Prior 88K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May
Briefing Forecast 4.5%
Market Expects 4.5%
Prior 4.5%

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Average Workweek May
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.8

8:30 AM Personal Income Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.7%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Core PCE Inflation Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.0%

10:00 AM ISM Index May
Briefing Forecast 53.5
Market Expects 54.0
Prior 54.7

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. May
Briefing Forecast 88.7
Market Expects 88.0
Prior 88.7

10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Apr
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior -4.9%

5:00 PM Auto Sales May
Briefing Forecast 5.1M
Market Expects 5.1M
Prior 5.0M

5:00 PM Truck Sales May
Briefing Forecast 7.6M
Market Expects 7.4M
Prior 7.5M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[ozymandius]

9. reports coming in

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/25 -1956K
prior 1969K

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls May 157K
prior 80K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May 4.5%
prior 4.5%

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May 0.3%
prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Average Workweek May 33.9
prior 33.8

8:30 AM Personal Income Apr -0.1%
prior 0.8%

[ozymandius]

10. Employers Add 157,000 Jobs in May

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers showed a decent appetite to hire in May, boosting payrolls by 157,000, the most in two months. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.5 percent.

The newest report on the nation's overall employment climate, released Friday by the Labor Department, suggested that the sluggish spell the economy has been experiencing hasn't severly crimped companies' need for workers. Those with jobs saw modest wage gains last month.

Health care, education, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and the government were among the sectors adding jobs in May. But weakness persisted in manufacturing, construction and retailing, partly reflecting fallout from a yearlong housing slump.

The new report on labor activity was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting employers to add just 135,000 jobs in May. They did, however, say they believed the overall unemployment rate would stay at 4.5 percent, considered relatively low by historical standards.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070601/economy.html?.v=15

[rfranklin]

13. This job creation is PATHETIC!

If these figures had come out during the Clinton years, the market would have tanked.

No to mention the quality of the jobs created.

"Would you like fries with that?"

[ozymandius]

15. Right. This pawltry job creation does not keep pace with the numbers

of people entering the job pool.

[Nickster]

17. Care to bet on whether these numbers get revised downwards?

[Roland99]

35. Woo hoo!! Right about at the equilibrium point! What a robust economy!!!

[ozymandius]

12. Incomes Fall but Spending Increases

Jeebus - anyone think that gas prices might have contributed to increased spending?

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers' incomes dipped in April but that didn't stop them from spending briskly. The Commerce Department reported Friday that personal incomes fell by 0.1 percent in April, following a robust increase of 0.8 percent in March.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070601/consumer_income_spending.html?.v=4

tiny story

[UpInArms]

24. UMich polls Meth/Crack users in May

07. U.S. May ISM new orders index 59.6% vs. 58.5%
10:02 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 9 minutes ago

08. UMich May sentiment revised down to 88.3 vs 88.7
10:01 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

09. UMich May sentiment above 88.0 forecast
10:01 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

10. UMich May sentiment above 87.1 in April
10:01 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

11. U.S. May ISM 55.0% vs. 53.5% expected
10:01 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

12. U.S. April pending home sales index down 10.2% vs. year ago
10:00 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 11 minutes ago

13. U.S. April pending home sales index falls 3.2%
10:00 AM ET, Jun 01, 2007 - 11 minutes ago

[whistle]

3. The crude oil futures graph suggests that there has been no cause for

...the surge in gasoline prices at the pumps since Nov 2006 as crude prices have remained within the $60 to $65 range pretty much over the past seven months. Yet pump prices are as high now as they were last June when oil was running $75 a barrel.

That can mean only one thing. Oil companies are engaged in price manipulation and gouging to get the highest profits they can.

[ozymandius]

5. very true

The oil refining and product market has changed since the 1980's. Back then oil companies could only guess at what levels their competition had in inventory. Today that has totally changed. Every oil company knows exactly what levels their competition has on hand. That's okay for them because of the incestuous nature of the industry: the oil companies operate in concert as a cartel.

Beyond the fluctuating market price reflective of Asian demand - the big companies own and operate the mercantile exchanges in the U.S. and London. Thus guaranteeing an hefty return on their investment. This is effectively a managed market. Crises as reported in the news about Nigeria and Iran is merely window dressing.

[whistle]

30. So free trade and globalization is complete BULLSHIT!

...at least where the consumers are concerned

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices rise after U.S. supply drop

Crude oil prices held on to gains Friday after a U.S. government weekly fuel supply report showed an unexpected decline in crude oil stockpiles.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery added 5 cents to $64.06 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midday in Europe.

-cut-

July Brent crude dropped 42 cents to $67.78 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

-cut-

The U.S. Energy Department's report showed domestic oil inventories fell 2 million barrels, or 0.6 percent, to 342.2 million barrels for the week ending May 25. It was the first draw in crude oil inventories in six weeks. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted crude inventories would climb about 300,000 barrels.

Gasoline stockpiles increased by 1.3 million barrels, or 0.7 percent, to 198 million barrels last week, beating analysts' expectations of a rise of 1 million barrels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. BP may lose license to Kovykta gas field

MOSCOW - BP PLC is likely to lose its license to develop a giant Siberian gas field that could be used to supply Asian markets, a senior environmental official said Friday.

Oleg Mitvol, the deputy head of Russia's environmental watchdog, Rosprirodnadzor, said he expects the license to be revoked as state regulators met to determine whether BP had been under-producing at the Kovykta field and should therefore lose the rights to develop the 2.1 trillion cubic meter field.

Mitvol cited draft minutes from the meeting which recommend that BP's permit be pulled for failing to meet a 9 billion cubic meter per year production target. BP has countered that it was only meant to meet local demand, which is far lower.

Meanwhile, the opportunity to export gas to China, which would spur development of the field, has so far been blocked by Gazprom — the only company allowed by law to export Russia's gas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070601/ap_on_bi_ge/russia_bp

[ozymandius]

7. Bancrofts to discuss Dow Jones bid with News Corp

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The family that controls Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE:DJ - news) said for the first time it would consider selling the publisher of the Wall Street Journal to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NYSE:NWSA - news), dropping its outright opposition to his $5 billion bid.

The Bancroft family, which controls 64 percent of Dow Jones's voting power, said it would also look at offers from other bidders. Dow Jones in a separate statement said the board would consider News Corp.'s offer and other approaches.

The Bancroft decision is a change from its earlier rejection of Murdoch's $60-a-share bid, and brings the publisher of The Wall Street Journal closer to being sold after more than a century of being independent.

"The family has reached consensus that the mission of Dow Jones may be better accomplished in combination or collaboration with another organization, which may include News Corporation," the Bancrofts said in a statement.

The family said it would meet with Murdoch and News Corp. representatives to see if they can find a way to protect the editorial independence of Dow Jones after a sale.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070601/bs_nm/dowjones_bancroft_newscorp_dc

[ozymandius]

8. Economic growth skids to worst showing in 4 years

WASHINGTON - Economic growth indicators posted their worst showing in more than four years, raising concerns about how long the nation's sluggish spell will last.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased by just a 0.6 percent pace in the January-through-March period, much weaker than estimated a month ago. Government statisticians slashed by more than half their first estimate of a 1.3 percent growth rate for the quarter.

The main forces behind the downgrade: the bloated trade deficit and businesses cutting investment in supplies of the goods they hold in inventories.

What largely prevented the economy from going under: consumers, who showed an even bigger appetite to spend.

For nearly a year, the economy has been enduring a stretch of subpar economic growth mostly caused by a housing slump. That in turn has made some businesses act more cautiously in their spending and investing.

http://www.savannahnow.com/node/296282

[ozymandius]

11. pre-open blather

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.2. The data that hit the wires at the bottom of the hour fell to the bullish side of things as May job growth (157K) was stronger than expected while the core-PCE number (+0.1%) in the personal income and spending report was lower than expected. That combination has provided an added lift to the futures market, which is keying off the view that economic activity appears to be picking up while inflation is moderating.

08:09 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Stock futures are presaging a positive start for the market with Dell's better than feared first quarter result and the old standby of momentum driving the bullish bias ahead of a key batch of economic data due shortly. Leading things off at 08:30 ET will be the May jobs report and the Personal Income and Spending report, which contains the Fed's favorite inflation indicator in the form of the core-PCE number. Those reports will be followed by the ISM Index at 10:00 ET, along with some other less influential pieces of data.

[ozymandius]

14. Dollar bulls bet on strong US payrolls

Dollar bulls bet on strong US payrolls data later in the session, sending the currency to its highest level against the yen in nearly four months, and to a seven-week high against the euro.

The euro's losses, however, were capped by strong German retail sales, which supported the view that the sales tax increase at the beginning of the year had only a limited impact.

Meanwhile, eurozone growth was resilient in the first quarter, while unemployment in May hit a record low.

"The continuing strength of the Eurozone economy will reinforce the ECB's belief that there is no need for monetary policy to be on the accomodative side," said Howard Archer at Global Insight.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070601/bs_ft/fto060120070644498468

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.419 Change +0.115 (+0.14%)

Dollar Mixed Before Event Risk - Levels Clearly Defined

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Dollar_Mixed_Before_Event_Risk_1180699760571.html

Commentary: Repeat - the decline from 1.3680 has been choppy and certainly appears corrective. However, the series of lower highs and lower lows is, by definition, a downtrend and could be either a series of 1st and 2nd waves lower or a diagonal (labels not shown) in the 1st wave position. Short term, reward/risk favors longs since it remains possible that an A-B-C correction (shown on chart) ended at 1.3403, but watch potential resistance in the 1.3509/74 zone (38.2% - 61.8% of 1.3680-1.3403) for a reversal.

Strategy: Until the pattern clears up, we are looking for opportunities elsewhere

USDJPY

<snip>

Commentary: Coming under the confluence of the trendline drawn off of the 4/19 and 5/11 lows near 121.20 would signal a reversal. In this case, we would be bearish against the swing high (currently 121.88). The entire rally from 115.14 may be a double zigzag correction. We mentioned yesterday that “our working assumption is that the USDJPY will thrust higher (above 121.88) following more consolidation between 121.29 and 121.75 before a reversal.” This is what has happened, the question is where does the thrust end? The 100% extension of 115.14-119.84/117.60 is at 122.30. This is a possible reversal point.

Strategy: Bearish on a break below mentioned trendline

GBPUSD

<snip>

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the bullish scenario that we have been focusing on is playng out. The 2nd wave dropped to 1.9732 and our working assumption is that wave 3 (higher) is underway.” 1.9676 must hold in order for the bullish scenario to remain intact. A drop under 1.9676 exposes the 4/9 low at 1.9589. Preferably, 1.9732 holds for bulls.

Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.9676, targeting 2.0131

...more...

Non-Farm Payrolls Instant Insight

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Non_Farm_Payrolls_Instant_Insight_1180702118386.html

Job growth in the month of May was decent but the personal income and PCE deflator data were not good enough for the US dollar to hold onto its gains. 157k US jobs were added to payrolls with only a minor 8k downward revision to the prior month.

Annualized average hourly earnings and weekly hours both ticked higher which indicates that there are enough people out there with jobs to keep the housing market from collapsing for another month. However personal income dropped 0.1 percent while the pce core deflator slowed to 2.0 percent from 2.1 percent. The negative spread between personal income and personal spending is only growing wider. On balance, this data keeps the Fed at status quo and is not strong enough to trigger a major dollar rally. Furthermore, Motorola, IBM and Dell all recently announced staff layoffs which suggests that this month's labor market strength may not be replicated.

...more...

[mojavekid]

32. Daily Pfennig 6/1/07: A HUGE Data Day!

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1414

before we even head into the first weekend of June, we have a Jobs Jamboree to deal with... This jobs data has once again become a show stopper, with trading desks coming to a halt to see what the data reveals... For so much is riding on job creation in the U.S., we certainly can't experience a strong sustained economy without creating new jobs... And quite frankly, I mean good jobs, with benefits, and a pension plan... Which brings me to my first problem with the Jobs Jamboree...

The data only tells us how many jobs were created, not what type, and certainly not who filled them... So, how can the markets get so lathered up over data that has question marks all over it? And that leads me to my second problem with the Jobs Jamboree... It's not comprised of real jobs creation... There is this little thing called the Birth/Death model that makes adjustments to the real number every month... I talked about this yesterday, so I won't get on my soapbox again over it, but there they are... My two problems with the markets getting all lathered up over the Jobs Jamboree!

So... Going into the report, the experts have forecast a gain of 132K, which has been revised downward all week... At the beginning of the week, there were forecasts for 175K... So... I guess the "experts" aren't feeling so strong about job creation... I don't have a feel for this month's data... At this time of year, we have the college grads filling jobs, never mind that they might be intern jobs that don't even pay minimum wage, but they're filling them! So... I'll just say that while I think the data will disappoint, I wouldn't be surprised to see it come in better than expected.

more...

[ozymandius]

18. Markets are open for bidness.

9:34Dow 13,670.63 Up 42.99 (0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,615.48 Up 10.96 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,536.48 Up 5.86 (0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.925% Up 0.035
NYSE Volume 100,645,000
Nasdaq Volume 87,697,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. The futures market has held a bullish biast throughout the morning, underpinned by encouraging economic data, a better than expectd first quarter report from Dell, and first-of-the-month inflows. No one can be certain how the market will close today, but there is ample certainty that it will open higher.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

19. kick!

:donut:

[ozymandius]

20. 10:04 snapshot

Dow 13,685.01 Up 57.37 (0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,625.70 Up 21.18 (0.81%)
S&P 500 1,540.08 Up 9.46 (0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.921% Up 0.031
NYSE Volume 404,400,000
Nasdaq Volume 305,809,000

09:55 am : Initial buying interest has cooled, but the major indices continue to hold the bulk of early gains.

Traders will be keeping a close eye on market rates, as the 10-year yield is within shouting distance of 5.00%. For the time being, the market's bullish bias remains intact due in large part to the comforting combination of stronger than expected job growth and lower than expected inflation seen in today's economic reports.

Within the Dow, 26 of its 30 components are showing a gain at this time. From a market cap standpoint, though, it is the small-caps that are the frontrunners. The Russell 200 is up 0.9% versus a gain of 0.5% for the S&P 500.DJ30 +43.56 NASDAQ +16.76 SP500 +7.09

09:40 am : As expected, the major indices started the session on a positive note. Early buying interest is broad-based with all ten economic sectors sporting a gain. Energy (+0.90%) and technology (+0.60%) are the pacesetters at the moment with health care (+0.15%), a defensive-oriented area, bringing up the rear.

Dell (28.01, +1.10) is a standout in the tech sector as investors have responded favorably to its better than expected first quarter results.

The question lingering is, will the jump in rates (10-yr yield now at 4.92%) derail the early rally?DJ30 +54.77 NASDAQ +16.59 SP500 +7.40

[Ghost Dog]

25. Iraq's oil boom isn't delayed, it's relocated to Canada

As Baghdad burns, destabilising the entire region and sending the price of oil soaring, Calgary booms
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2092922,00.html
Naomi Klein
Friday June 1, 2007
The Guardian

The invasion of Iraq has set off what could be the largest oil boom in history. All the signs are there: multinationals free to gobble up national firms at will, ship unlimited profits home, enjoy leisurely "tax holidays", and pay a laughable 1% in royalties to the government.

This isn't the boom in Iraq sparked by the proposed new oil law - that will come later. This boom is already in full swing, and it is happening about as far away from the carnage in Baghdad as you can get, in the wilds of northern Alberta. For four years now, Alberta and Iraq have been connected to each other through a kind of invisible seesaw: as Baghdad burns, destabilising the entire region and sending oil prices soaring, Calgary booms.

Here is how chaos in Iraq unleashed what the Financial Times recently called "North America's biggest resources boom since the Klondike gold rush". Albertans have always known that in the northern part of their province there are vast deposits of bitumen - black, tarlike goo that is mixed up with sand, clay, water and oil. There are approximately 2.5 trillion barrels of the stuff, the largest hydrocarbon deposits in the world.

It is possible to turn Alberta's crud into crude, but it's awfully hard. One method is to mine it in vast open pits: first, forests are clear-cut, then topsoil scraped away. Next, huge machines dig out the black goop and load it into the largest dump trucks in the world (two stories high, a single wheel costs $100,000). The tar is diluted with water and solvents in giant vats, which spin it around until the oil rises to the top, while the massive tailings are dumped in ponds larger than the region's natural lakes. Another method is to separate the oil where it is: large drill-pipes push steam deep underground, which melts the tar, while another pipe sucks it out and transports it through several more stages of refining, much of it powered by natural gas.

...

All this has meant that Iraq's oil boom has not been delayed; it has been relocated. All the majors, save BP, have rushed to northern Alberta: ExxonMobil, Chevron and Total, which alone plans to spend $9bn-$14bn. In April, Shell paid $8bn to take full control of its Canadian subsidiary. The town of Fort McMurray, ground zero of the boom, has nowhere to house the tens of thousands of new workers, and one company has built its own airstrip so it can fly in the people it needs.

Seventy-five percent of the oil from the tar sands flows directly to the US, prompting Brian Hall, an energy consultant with Colorado-based IHS, to call the tar sands "America's energy security blanket". There is a certain irony there: the US invaded Iraq at least in part to secure access to its oil. Now, thanks partly to economic blowback from that disastrous decision, it has found the "security" it was looking for right next door.

It has become fashionable to predict that high oil prices will spark a free-market response to climate change, setting off an "explosion of innovation in alternatives", as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote recently. Alberta puts the lie to that claim. High prices have indeed led to an R&D extravaganza, but it is squarely focused on figuring out how to get the dirtiest possible oil out of the hardest-to-reach places. Shell, for instance, is working on a "novel thermal recovery process" - embedding large electric heaters in the deposits and literally cooking the earth.

And that's the Alberta tar sands for you: the industry already contributing to climate change more than any other is frantically turning up the heat. The process of refining bitumen emits three to four times the greenhouse gases produced by extracting oil from traditional wells, making the tar sands the largest single contributor to Canada's growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The $100bn in projected investments from the tar sands have also turned Canada into a global climate renegade.

...

Contemplating the collective madness in Alberta - a scene even the Financial Times has labelled "some dystopian fantasy" - it strikes me that Canada has ended up with more than Iraq's displaced oil boom. We have its elusive weapons of mass destruction too. They are out near Fort McMurray, in the jet-black goo beneath the earth's crust. And with the help of trucks, pipes, steam and gas, these weapons are being detonated.

/...

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. One of the thing that seems to be difficult to pin down these days is 'who is middle class'. I have had folks-docs tell me they are middle class (they make 6 figures and their wives do too-and that isn't my middle class). So I decided to provide a test to help determine where you fall in the economic spectrum. Which of the following are true?

1. Since gas prices have skyrocketed-you have

A.forgotten what the interior of your car looks like.
B.forgotten what the rest of your home town looks like.
C.blamed BILL Clinton and those damned liberals.
D.shrug and fill up your Hummer.

2. Every time you see the gas price increase you

A.wonder how you can increase your plasma donations.
B.wonder which bill won't get paid this month.
C.blamed BILL Clinton and those damned liberals.
D.are glad they upped your credit limit when you got that 100K pay increase.

3.When the ARM on your home adjusts upward by $800, you

A.don't worry-you were foreclosed and lost your home last year.
B.wonder what the going black market rate is for a kidney.
C.blamed BILL Clinton and those damned liberals.
D.know this is a trick question, your 650k mortgage is fixed.

4.When you grocery store and see the price of meat you

A.know this is a trick question-you haven't seen meat in years.
B.sigh, and go pick up some salt pork to season your beans.
C.blamed BILL Clinton and those damned liberals.
D.throw it in the cart and cross it of your list.

5.When your child tells you they want to go to college you

A.chuckle to your self-where do these kids get these crazy ideas.
B.get a schedule for the local community college.
C.blamed BILL Clinton and those damned liberals.
D.call Biff, the admissions dean at your old ivy school, reminisce about the good old days and sign little missy up for the fall.

If you answered A-you are the new poor. If you answered B you are the new middle class. If you answered C you are stupid and watch too much FOX. If you answered D you are rich-and quit trying to pass yourselves off as middle class.

[kineneb]

29. you need one more category

the already (working/fixed income) poor:

1. hope that the car doesn't need any repairs, because you can't pay for them

2. wonder if there is any more change you can find in the sofa -or-
plan to collect aluminum cans so the car won't run on fumes

3.what ARM? you just hope the rent doesn't go up

4. hope the free-food giveaway has something with protein in it

5. hope the kids can take a few classes around their work schedule

(ed for spelling)

[AnneD]

40. I think the new poor class covers it...

the old poor are living in card boxes or sleeping on grates and eating out of dumpsters-no worries there:sarcasm: This test was more for the folks that recently dropped in their income level.
If this were 1929-32, they would be living in the renamed Hoovervilles (Dubyavilles).

Great example questions though.

[mojavekid]

41. Nicely Done AnneD, Here are a couple related articles;

One from the Times Online, the second written by George Monbiot and posted on his site, and also published in The Guardian. I see a rising apprehension in people who are in the group you mention of those newly poor. It seems they don't know it - the reason for your great post, as they still have access to credit with their cards which has temporarily offset the closure of the housing ATM, and allows them to remain in denial. It is very hard to watch.

Because we're worth it

Times Online

The baby-boomers’ culture of hedonistic consumerism has left their offspring with the crumbs from their table. And 65% of them say their children’s lives will be worse than their own. But are they bothered?

http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/the_way_we_live/article1830703.ece



Willy Loman Syndrome

George Monbiot

(also published in The Guardian)

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/07/07/willy-loman-syndrome/


Of course it could just be my mood, I kept putting it off but finally read Cormac McCarthy's book, "The Road"....:tinfoilhat:



-mojavekid

[AnneD]

42. I think one of the reasons why I am so sensitive to this change Mojave...

I haven't used a credit card in 4 years. I am strictly cash and carry. I have seen it become harder for these kids to make it, but I think this intergenerational anger is misdirected. The wealth gap should put that argument to rest, as should some of the other stats. If you cannot get to the first quartile in your lifetime-that's it-life and retirement is harder for you and affects your family.

Yes I am a Baby Boomer, but I have not lived an extravagant lifestyle. I have made money mistakes, but I have learned. I have one child, so she will inherit everything anyway, if anything is left. I have worked hard for the pension I hope to get and I have saved as best I can so as not to be a burden to my child or society.

I cannot predict the world she will grow up in but I can pass on my hard won knowledge and some values. It has had some positive effects. She has worked this entire last year while attended high school (she started when she was 16 and is 17 now). She is contemplating another part time job this summer(actually, she was approached to work in a coffee shop). She said she needs some food experience on her resume since that is all that is open in a college town so she wants to work at the coffee shop too (where did she get this idea).

She has been saving for college. She plans to work her way through school and avoid student loans if at all possible. She is the best bargain shopper, has a black belt in hustling, and she tithes to boot. If possible, I will help her as I truly believe the yiddish proverb that it is better to give with a warm hand. No, I cannot predict the world she will inherit-I can only hope to give her a few milepost in her journey.

:thumbsup: Thanks for the great articles.

[ozymandius]

27. numbers and blather

11:17
Dow 13,663.31 Up 35.67 (0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,618.97 Up 14.45 (0.55%)
S&P 500 1,536.98 Up 6.36 (0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.935% Up 0.045
NYSE Volume 990,079,000
Nasdaq Volume 704,885,000

11:00 am : The major indices have been unable to build on early gains as the jump in long-term rates has been an impeding factor.

The 10-yr yield is up to 4.94%, but we're seeing weakness across the yield curve with the front-end (i.e., the 2-yr note) experiencing the biggest backup in yield today (+ 6 basis points to 4.97%).

Notwithstanding the favorable core-PCE reading that pointed to a moderation in inflation pressures, stronger than expected job growth and manufacturing data are feeding concerns that the Fed could possibly still raise interest rates if that growth ends up leading to a reversal in the inflation trend.

When the Fed moves again, Briefing.com believes it will be to lower rates. Nonetheless, the mere idea that another rate hike hasn't been eliminated appears to be causing some consternation among today's traders.DJ30 +19.58 NASDAQ +10.58 SP500 +4.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 934/1853/589 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 815/2195/323 mln

[54anickel]

28. Sell in May and walk away? Not so fast (I was wondering about that)

With the Dow at a record high, does the old Wall Street saw still make sense for investors in 2007?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/30/markets/markets_sellinmay/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With the Dow at a record high and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 at six-year highs, it seems like a good time to cut and run. Wouldn't you agree?

No?

Well, according to the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and go away," one who invests in stocks during the colder months and sits it out during the beach months can do quite nicely, more or less.

That's because stocks gains in November through April have typically been stronger than May through October for a wide variety of reasons.

The Stock Trader's Almanac has demonstrated this by tracking what would happen to a $10,000 investment in the stocks that make up the Dow Jones industrial average.

Money invested in the Dow stocks in the "best six months" and then switched to fixed income in the "worst six months" over 56 years grew to $544,323. But money invested in the Dow in the "worst six" and then switched to fixed income in the "best six" compounded to a loss of $272.

With just one trading day left in April, the Dow is up 8.6 percent in the most recent "best" period, just above the historic average of 7.9 percent - suggesting the winter months have been keeping their part of the bargain. Will the summer months follow suit?

"The history speaks for itself," said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Almanac, who noted the recent record highs have been in April - the best month for the Dow in terms of percentage gains since 1999.

Hirsch said that he doesn't think the new market highs do anything but reinforce the trend.

more...

[mojavekid]

31. Reuters: UPDATE 4-Gold climbs to two-week high after ECB news

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?rpc=401&type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-06-01T120214Z_01_L01278448_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-4.XML

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Gold extended gains on Friday to hit a two-week high after the European Central Bank said it had no plans to sell any more gold this year, but a rise in the dollar may cap gains, dealers said.

Speculative buying also helped boost prices, but investors were still wary after sharp price falls last week.


The ECB said it had sold 37 tonness of gold from its reserves over the past two months, but it also said it had no plans for further sales in the current year of the central bank gold agreement.

more...

[mojavekid]

33. Prudent Squirrel: What is happening with Gold?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/may302007.html

Gold and the HUI have been trending down. I hear various reasons proffered about why – central banks are selling – that is why gold is down – etc. Indeed, the Spanish central bank has sold 80 tons of gold in the last two months because they are seriously low on foreign reserves. That is another story.

But, I see very good macroeconomic reasons for gold to be tepid and down now. In fact, things like what the USD does are far more weighty to gold, than temporal central bank selling of gold. True, 40 tons is a lot, but compared to the financial mass of the USD for instance, that is literally a drop in the bucket.

One major force driving gold down now is that the USD has begun a short term strengthening trend. I have written about this to subscribers for three or more weeks now.

more...

[mojavekid]

34. Grandich Letter Special Alert: One More Shoe to Drop

http://www.kitco.com/ind/grandich/may292007.html

For quite some time now, I’ve spoken about my belief that the U.S. stock market could not top out until such time that the mood on Wall Street is convinced the Federal Reserve will move, or already has moved, to an easing position. It’s at that point where I believe the last blow-off rally should take place and where I would personally like to short the market. Despite an ever-increasing number of bearish economic, social and political factors, I continue to believe this easing is the needed “last shoe to drop” before we enter a long-term grinding bear market. While I haven’t gone short yet, I do believe investors should use further strength strictly as an opportunity to lighten their load (except for precious metals issues).

Gold – I haven’t witnessed a more pronounced bearish mood in the gold market given the least amount of price decline since this secular bull market began five years ago. Not a day goes by where I don’t read yet another formerly bullish forecaster painting a gloomy outlook for gold for the foreseeable future. The mood among retail speculators is so thick with pessimism you can cut it with a knife. Yet, here we sit this morning with gold still north of $650 and above key support of $640.

One shouldn’t simply discard this marked increased in bearishness. For starters, gold is now in the historically weakest seasonal period of May through August. It’s also been absolutely hammered – not only by aggressive central bank selling, but by a continuing pattern of strange selling on the Comex that almost always is concentrated around the 11 a.m. time frame. The fact that this is when most of the physical buying worldwide shuts down until later in the evening in Asia is no coincidence.

more...

[TrogL]

36. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-05-01 Tuesday, May 1 0.901876 USD
2007-05-02 Wednesday, May 2 0.901957 USD
2007-05-03 Thursday, May 3 0.903424 USD
2007-05-04 Friday, May 4 0.903424 USD
2007-05-07 Monday, May 7 0.907112 USD
2007-05-08 Tuesday, May 8 0.905141 USD
2007-05-09 Wednesday, May 9 0.903914 USD
2007-05-10 Thursday, May 10 0.903098 USD
2007-05-11 Friday, May 11 0.897989 USD
2007-05-14 Monday, May 14 0.903587 USD
2007-05-15 Tuesday, May 15 0.911079 USD
2007-05-16 Wednesday, May 16 0.906783 USD
2007-05-17 Thursday, May 17 0.911079 USD
2007-05-18 Friday, May 18 0.918864 USD
2007-05-21 Monday, May 21 0.921319 USD
2007-05-22 Tuesday, May 22 0.921319 USD (?)
2007-05-23 Wednesday, May 23 0.924556 USD
2007-05-24 Thursday, May 24 0.922424 USD
2007-05-25 Friday, May 25 0.926441 USD
2007-05-28 Monday, May 28 0.926441 USD (?)
2007-05-29 Tuesday, May 29 0.932923 USD
2007-05-30 Wednesday, May 30 0.929973 USD
2007-05-31 Thursday, May 31 0.934492 USD
2007-06-01 Friday, June 1 0.943218 USD


Current values

Last trade 0.9421 Change +0.0065 (+0.69%)

Settle Time 15:09 Open 0.9387

Previous Close 0.9359 High 0.9438

Low 0.9370


Loonie:

Last trade 0.9421 Change +0.0065 (+0.69%)
Previous Close 0.9359 Open 0.9387
Low 0.9370 High 0.9438


Other combinations:

AS.M07 AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ Jun (NYBOT) 0.88470 +0.000040
AU.M07 AUSTRALIAN $/US$ Jun (NYBOT) 0.82765 +0.00570
EC.M07 EURO FX Jun (CME) 1.3446 -0.0018
RA.M07 EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ Jun (NYBOT) 1.62665 -0.00780
RP.M07.E EURO/BRITISH POUND Jun (CME) 0.6790 -0.00011
GB.M07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Jun (NYBOT) 0.68075 -0.0007
HY.M07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Jun (NYBOT) 113.605 +0.605
EP.M07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Jun (NYBOT) 1.4351 -0.00039
RY.M07.E EURO/JAPANESE YEN Jun (CME) 163.84 +0.48
EJ.M07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Jun (NYBOT) 163.52 +0.0
EU.M07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Jun (NYBOT) 1.3405 -0.0057


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at .9475 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9166 would confirm that a top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

It's reached the point where I'm afraid to open this thread or even go to my own website.

Here. Go look (http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html). :scared: I've never, ever seen graphs like that before and there doesn't appear to be any end in sight given the state of the US economy. Canada's fundamentals are strong, we already took our lumps over too close ties to the US economy and now everybody else is running scared.

The Yen is losing strength against the loonie, greenback, pound and Euro.

[mojavekid]

38. Peter Schiff: WHEN WILL ALL THIS BAD NEWS SINK IN?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2007/0601.html

As a steady stream of bad U.S. economic news accumulates, one wonders when the stock market will finally take notice. After years of highly effective spin coming from Washington and Wall Street, stock investors must re-learn how to recognize bad news, and to stop making lemonade out of every economic lemon that comes their way.

Little noticed amidst the dizzying stock rally in May was the steep increase in bond yields. Costlier credit has ominous implications for highly indebted American families (particularly homeowners with ARMs), over-leveraged corporations, hedge funds and private equity players, and the biggest debtor of them all, the Federal government itself, which must constantly refinance trillions of dollars of maturing debt.

snip..

Today we received further evidence that our imbalanced economy is moving further off kilter as another 19,000 manufacturing jobs were lost and the personal savings rate fell to minus 1.3%. Fewer goods being produced means even larger future trade deficits, which will be made more difficult to finance as a result of rising interest rates. Tighter credit and inadequate income growth will also make record personal indebtedness that much more costly to service.

more...

[ozymandius]

43. closing up shop for the weekend

Dow 13,668.11 Up 40.47 (0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,613.92 Up 9.40 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,536.34 Up 5.72 (0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.956% Up 0.066
NYSE Volume 2,927,018,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,930,346,000

4:20 pm : The stock market got what it hoped for on Friday as a batch of economic data painted a picture of growth and moderating inflation. However, it was slow to capitalize on that news as it kept a watchful eye on the Treasury market where the yield on the benchmark 10-year note came within striking distance of 5.00%.

By the end of the day, though, the bulls had scored another victory as each of the major indices logged a modest gain that got the month of June off to a positive start.

The foundation for the positive showing was built on a stronger than expected 157K increase in May nonfarm payrolls, a lower than expected 0.1% increase in core-PCE, which is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, and a reading of 55.0 on the ISM Index that suggested the manufacturing sector remains in growth mode (50.0 is the dividing line between contraction and expansion).

There were other sources of support, too, on the corporate front. In particular, Dell (DELL 27.30, +0.39) posted better than expected first quarter results, Wal-Mart (WMT 49.47, +1.87) announced a $15 billion share repurchase plan, and the Bancroft family is reportedly now open to considering a buyout offer for Dow Jones (DJ 61.20, +7.89) from Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NWS.A 24.22, +0.59).

The combination of these developments succeeded in keeping selling efforts in check, as did the expectation that Monday will be highlighted by another round of deal making.

Buyers did show some reserve, however, as the jump in market rates generated a modicum of angst about equity valuations.

Today's gains were led by the energy (+1.1%) and materials (+1.1%) sectors. The only sectors to suffer a loss were telecom services (-1.2%) and utilities (-0.6%) - two areas known for their favorable dividend yields, which don't look quite as favorable as they used to with the yield on the risk-free 10-year note pushing 5.00%. DJ30 +40.47 NASDAQ +9.40 SP500 +5.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1135/1899/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1138/2145/1.37 bln