STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 26 December (#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday December 26, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 395
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 14 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 66 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 278
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 762
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 26, 2003

Dow... 10,305.19 -36.07 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq... 1,969.23 -5.55 (-0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,094.04 -1.98 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.19% -0.08 (-1.92%)
Gold future... 412.80 +1.20 (+0.29%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. It's Still Very Lonely At The Top

by Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.

This is an editorial from Financial Sense Online. And yes, there's charts for chart fans.

<cut>
Most the experts I read and respect are still bearish and surprised at the length of the bear rally that has been underway for the past thirteen months. I am unaware of any serious bears who have lost faith in their views. This rally, although tiring, can certainly continue for a while. But those of my readers, who have been net short in their market position, are definitely losing faith in their stance. I hope my comments here will help many of our readers to either hold or modify their investments.

I do not think that any investor should continue to hold either a losing long or short position that is interfering with their sleep. I believe they should cut their losses and wait for a good opportunity to establish a new position. Of course this is never easy, especially the very first time. Millions of investors, failed to sell their losing stocks and funds in the first leg of this bear market and many more millions will fail to sell on the next leg down. Selling of a losing position is the mark of an experienced investor who preserves capital for the next good opportunity. I sincerely hope that our readers will adopt this wise policy.

THE GREAT BEAR MARKET CONTINUES

It is completely impossible for this bear market rally to somehow turn into a new bull market. The history of every completed mania in the entire world shows that, at the end, stocks ended below the starting level. The bullish Wall Street experts and their millions of followers are doomed to experience a complete boom and bust cycle. There is no other way it can end. Alan Greenspan’s misguided actions have re-ignited the stock bubble. The debt and housing bubbles show little sign of wear and tear and are still going strong. But these bubbles will burst and then join stocks in a total disaster. There will not be any soft landing.

more

[JNelson6563]

2. Many of us hold this view....

The bullish Wall Street experts and their millions of followers are doomed to experience a complete boom and bust cycle. There is no other way it can end. Alan Greenspan’s misguided actions have re-ignited the stock bubble. The debt and housing bubbles show little sign of wear and tear and are still going strong. But these bubbles will burst and then join stocks in a total disaster. There will not be any soft landing.

Yes, I believe Greenman's actions (or lack thereof) have been misguided. Yes, we all see the bubble, in spite of its transparency and YES!! We know the landing will be brutal.

The bigger the bubble the bigger the mess when it pops and the higher the train climbs the mountain the worse the crash when the engine gives out. Ouch.

Gold lookin' good, last I saw up 1.20 at 412+change. Half day today and many Euro markets closed.

Hope all had a nice Christmas or whatever ya do. :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

3. Food stocks set to dent Dow for second session

Wall Street looked set for a quiet holiday-thinned session on Friday with most investors opting to extend their Christmas holiday and stay away from their desks.

Food industry stocks look likely to remain in focus in the abbreviated session after the Department of Agriculture confirmed on Thursday the country's first case of mad cow disease.

<cut>
On Thursday British scientists confirmed a single Holstein cow from a farm in Washington state had tested positive for bovine spongiform eccephalopathy backing up earlier findings by US scientists.

The market's reaction to the news on Wednesday that a cow had tested positive to BSE (news - web sites) was swift. McDonald's, the world's largest restaurant company, closed 5.2 per cent lower, while rival Wendy's International, another fast-food chain, dropped 4.7 per cent, despite both saying their meat supply was not linked to the farm where the infected cow had been discovered.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Parmalat crash reveals flaw in Italian small business sector

This makes me wonder how much market share Parmalat has in the U.S.

ROME (AFP) - - The collapse of the Parmalat food empire amid billions of euros of debts reveals a troubling aspect about Italian capitalism -- the lack of effective financial control over its family-owned companies.

<cut>
So was Parmalat, which was founded by Calisto Tanzi, 65, as a regional dairy and food processing firm in 1961 and expanded to become one of Europe's biggest agri-businesses, with some 36,000 employees in 30 countries.

Italy's small business sector has traditionally depended to a large extent on trust. That is why it was such a shock when Parmalat's failure to reimburse a 150-million euro (187 million dollar) loan on December 8 eventually revealed that the company was relying on a 4.9 billion-euro bank deposit in the Cayman Islands that apparently did not exist.

The house of cards collapsed Enron style when banks refused to advance any more cash to Tanzi, who resigned on December 15, handing over the firm to Enrico Bondi, an expert in rescuing failed companies.

story

[JNelson6563]

6. Wow! Fascinating story!

Who knew?? "Enron style", eh? This sounds so grim.

Well at least we needn't worry about our Mega-Giant-Agra sector. We give them buckets of money all the time. Thank the gods they're safe! ;-)

Julie

[54anickel]

13. Isn't Capitalism Great?

:eyes:

[ze_dscherman]

18. Berlusconi has eased fines on false accounting in 2002 ...

... because that's what he was likely to be sentenced for.

"Fears of widespread accounting fraud at Parmalat are reigniting criticism levelled at Mr Berlusconi two years ago when his government rushed through legislation that decriminalised and altered Italy's false-accounting laws. Mr Berlusconi's Fininvest media empire is under investigation on charges of false accounting, which include alleged transactions in the Cayman Islands."

http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=031224000993&query=berlusconi+parmalat&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=Form


As a consequence, Parmalat management is likely to get out of this fraud unharmed. Take notice that the following article gives no hint on Berlusconis own interested in effectively abolishing laws on false accounting, but completely follows his arguments. If I were to make any deal with Italian companies or invest into Italian stock, I would be very very cautious:


"MILAN -- Parmalat Finanziaria SpA's former Chief Financial Officer Fausto Tonna and former Chairman Calisto Tanzi face a fine of just 10,329 euros ( $12, 800) each if it is found that they hid at least 3.95 billion euros ( $4.89 billion) from auditors -- and a year in jail at most.


That's because Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's government approved new rules for false accounting in 2002 that shorten prison sentences, cut the statute of limitations and trim fines.

Both Mr. Berlusconi's government and its center-left predecessor believed that Italy's World War II-era accounting rules offered the worst of both worlds. Those governments felt the old rules tied companies' hands with obscene amounts of red tape, while at the same time left too much discretion in the hands of public prosecutors, as was demonstrated during the corruption scandals of the 1990s when the results of many were later overturned.

The 2002 reforms, however, provoked a howl of outcry in Italy and abroad. Approved in the wake of the Enron scandal, they were unfavorably compared to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of the same year that dramatically increased prison sentences for false accounting to up to 20 years."


http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20031224/ON200312241353000666.var&column=P0DFP

[ozymandius]

5. Pre-Christmas Economic News Lacks Cheer

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A day before Christmas, the government reported surprising drops in November orders for costly durable goods and new-home sales, casting a cloud across generally cheery economic growth prospects.

<cut>
Analysts said that while the reports were a reminder that the economy still was on the mend from a mild recession in 2001, they did not imply it was at risk of a relapse, but rather that the recovery remains modestly paced.

"These were ugly numbers, but they also jump around a lot," said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors, in Holland, Pennsylvania, referring to the durables data. The November dip followed back-to-back gains in September and October and order backlogs remained healthy, Naroff noted.

FORECASTS OFF BADLY

Commerce said durable goods orders fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $180.07 billion -- defying Wall Street economists' expectations of a 0.8 percent rise.

interesting commentary to accompany what is somewhat old news

[JNelson6563]

7. I fear our economic reckoning

more than I do any terrorist attacks right now.

Julie

[Maeve]

8. Many happy returns of the season!

We've had a slight return of the flu, I need to hit the mall for a possible return of a lovely jacket Hubby bought me(or I could just lose a few more pounds!), #1 Son returns to work today....and the traders return to the floor, altho for another short session. However, volume will be low and may be volatile--the nature of the beast this time of year.

Hey--another happy return--a return to the tale of Enron!
See thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=285687

[54anickel]

9. Dollar Watch

Good Morning everyone. :hangover:
Hope everybody enjoyed the holiday. Afraid I may have over indulged a wee bit. Have been catching up on the news a bit this morning on this thread and the headlines in LBN.

My, this holiday season is turning out to be so reflective of the bad year this has been. Wishing for a much better 2004.

Since the big drop on Christmas eve day, the dollar has been bobbing between 87.4 and 87.6

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Last trade 87.50 Change -0.49 (-0.56%)

Settle 87.54 Settle Time 08:36

Open 87.49 Previous Close 87.99

High 87.59 Low 87.43


Looking for new lows today according to this article just out.
http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20031226-000161-0906

NEW YORK -- The dollar is soft against its major rivals, particularly against the yen, at the open of what will be a shortened, illiquid U.S. trading session Friday, with dealers on high alert for potential intervention from Japanese monetary authorities.

This follows confirmation Friday from Japan's Ministry of Finance that Japan's central bank will provide funds to the government for currency intervention if needed, as Tokyo continues its aggressive campaign to keep down the yen as best as it can, the Bank of Japan and MOF said.

The BOJ will be ready to lend up to 10 trillion yen in funds by buying U.S. Treasury bonds from the ministry on repurchase agreements, the two said.

But Japan's strengthening resolve to keep the yen down doesn't appear to be scaring the market, which instead views the move as tacit admission from Japanese authorities that the dollar is firmly on a downward path and the best they can hope for is to slow the move, not reverse it.

more...

[dbt]

10. Happy Rear of the Year, Marketeers!

Hoping everyone had a Happy Whatever and is looking forward to a joyous New Year (if any)!

For an economy that was roaring back, December sales looked pretty anemic, no? And how 'bout that confirmation of the Mad Cow Disease case on Christmas Day? Talk about sending a story down the News Dump!

Were the Regime's economic numbers in the last quarter of this benighted year as cooked as a Christmas goose or what?

Thank you ALL for this thread every day!

:toast:
dbt

[radfringe]

11. it's still a Job-LOSS recovery

more unhappy people ahead - white-collar, middle-class - just the people that Bush* says the wealth-fare taxcut helped... looks more like it helped them out of a job...

Bracing for the Blow
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/26/opinion/26HERB.html?ex=1073019600&en=765363123b43915e&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
By BOB HERBERT
Published: December 26, 2003

I.B.M. has sent a holiday chill through its American employees with its plans to ship thousands of high-paying white-collar jobs overseas to lower-paid foreign workers.

"People are upset and angry," said Arnie Marchetti, a 37-year-old computer technician at I.B.M.'s Southbury, Conn., office whose wife gave birth to their first child in August.

The company has not made any announcements, and the employees do not know who will be affected, or when. The uncertainty about whose jobs may be sent to India or China, the two main countries in the current plans, has raised workers' anxiety in some cases to an excruciating level.

"I understand that this is a lightning rod issue in the industry," an I.B.M. spokesman told me this week. "It's a lightning rod issue to people in our company, I suppose. But I don't think anybody expects us to issue blanket statements to the work force about projections."

Referring to employees who may be affected by the plans, he said, "We deal with them as they need to know

[54anickel]

12. There goes productivity at I've Been Moved!

Pretty hard to concentrate on the task at hand when you're worried about how much longer you'll be employed!

[ozymandius]

14. 10:45 update

gains abound


Dow 10,333.85 +28.66 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,976.97 +7.74 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,097.42 +3.38 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156% -0.031

[ozymandius]

15. 11:37 update

Dow 10,335.26 +30.07 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,975.81 +6.58 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,097.43 +3.39 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156% -0.031

Gotta run folks! My son is bored and needs to get out. See you Monday!

Ozymandius

[JNelson6563]

16. 12:13 update

here's how it's lookin'


Dow 10,328.52 +23.33 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,974.12 +4.89 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,096.74 +2.70 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.150% -0.037

*yawn*

Julie

[Maeve]

17. Cheerful considering the news, isn't it?

Wouldn't be setting up for some bearish times, I suppose...:eyes:

But that's just speculation--the mall was busy, if not insane (I heard on the news that 1 in 3 folks return something after Christmas) and Wall-Mart was jam-packed. All the after-Christmas sales seem to be doing their job.

Seems to be some money leaving the casino right now

Dow 10,321.04 +15.85 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,972.02 +2.79 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,095.82 +1.78 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.150% -0.037

[Maeve]

19. Well, I'm sure some money was made today

At least, on paper. The weekend's news developments and return of some of the traders Monday could make that a much more interesting day.
Dow 10,324.67 +19.48 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,973.14 +3.91 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,095.89 +1.85 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.150% -0.037

Good weekend, y'all! :hi:

[JNelson6563]

20. thanks for bringing up the rear Maeve

Hope all have a good weekend!

Julie