Democratic Race Tightens as Views of Clinton Become More Negative

[Omaha Steve]

Source: GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

April 18, 2007
Democratic Race Tightens as Views of Clinton Become More Negative
Forty-five percent favorable rating one of lowest ever for Clinton

by Jeffrey M. Jones
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A majority of Americans have an unfavorable image of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Clinton's current 45% favorable rating with the American public is her third consecutive reading below 50% in the past two months, and is one of the lowest Gallup has measured for her since 1993. The recent decline in her image appears to be broad-based, as it is evident among most key subgroups. Even after her image first showed signs of decline in early March, Clinton managed to maintain a healthy lead in Gallup's trial heat of Democratic preferences for the party's 2008 presidential nomination. However, the new poll shows her lead has shrunk to just five percentage points over Barack Obama.

Clinton Favorable Ratings on the Decline

Clinton is no doubt a formidable candidate for president. She is the best-known candidate of either party, is widely respected by members of her own party, and has been able to raise large sums of money to fund her presidential campaign. Despite these advantages, recent Gallup polling reveals a potential weakness in her rather low likability scores among the general public. In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted April 13-15, 2007, more Americans say they have an unfavorable (52%) than a favorable view (45%) of Clinton. Clinton's favorable rating has been below 50% in each of the last three Gallup Polls, after being consistently above that mark since June 2003. As recently as February, her favorable rating was a solid 58%.

Gallup has only measured a lower favorable rating than the current 45% for Clinton on two other occasions: in January of 1996 (43%) and March of 2001 (44%). At the other end of the spectrum, Clinton's favorable ratings were consistently above 60% during the Monica Lewinsky scandal in 1998 and 1999, including a high of 67% in December of 1999 -- just after the House voted to impeach Bill Clinton as a result of this matter.



A closer analysis of Clinton's ratings can shed light on where she may be losing support -- and also perhaps why. In three polls conducted from November of 2006 to early March of 2007, Clinton averaged a 55% favorable rating. In Gallup's three most recent polls, from late March and April, she has averaged 46%. The following table shows how her ratings in the two periods compare among key demographic groups.

Read more: http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27232

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3 page story.

[SoFlaJet]

1. Good!

I'd write in Pat Paulsen's name before I'd vote for her-and I think he's DEAD

[kirby]

2. Funny, I thought the same thing...

No more Clinton...No more Bush..... New ideas from someone else please....

[Captain Hilts]

3. Gallup isn't skewed, just sloppy, hence the 16 point shifts btwn Gore/Bush in 2000.

They don't balance their population sample consistently, so there is more amplitude to their numbers than for other polls.

It makes no sense for her numbers to do anything so dramatic in so short a period of time when she has not been in the news.

[ryanmuegge]

4. The reliability is highly suspect.

Polls this early on extremely useful anyway. Really, nything could happen from now until the primaries. No one thought Kerry had a snowball's chance last time around, from what I recall.

Remember that HBO documentary with that (slightlydepressing) scene where he has a rally and he's speaking before, literally, 4 or 5 people. Come to think of it, it's really cool that he came from nowhere like that to win the nomination.

He would have made a really good president...

[Captain Hilts]

5. The WashPost/ABC poll has her numbers unchanged, Guiliani's dropping.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/18/AR2007041801866.html?nav=hcmodule

[tabasco]

6. That's what she gets for playing both sides of the fence.

Nobody likes a gutless panderer.

[Exiled in America]

7. She should raise money for a candidate that the public supports.

That's what she would do if serving her country was more important than personal political aspirations.