Permanent drought predicted for Southwest

[Rose Siding]

Source: LAT

The driest periods of the last century — the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the droughts of the 1950s — may become the norm in the Southwest United States within decades because of global warming, according to a study released Thursday.

The research suggests that the transformation may already be underway. Much of the region has been in a severe drought since 2000, which the study's analysis of computer climate models shows as the beginning of a long dry period.

The study, published online in the journal Science, predicted a permanent drought by 2050 throughout the Southwest — one of the fastest-growing regions in the nation.

.....

Richard Seager, a research scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University and the lead author of the study, said the changes would force an adjustment to the social and economic order from Colorado to California.

Read more: http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-swdrought6apr06,0,122112.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[youngdem]

1. Weird. I thought the DESERT SOUTHWEST already was sort of in a permanent drought

:eyes:


Perhaps, millions of people shouldn't move into the middle of the desert and take what little water they have though.


I'm sure that global warming has much to do with this getting worse, but really, what kind of moran moves to the desert and complains about the lack of water?

[Warpy]

2. Pueblo Indians have farmed in NM for many centuries

and the rainfall in most tribal areas is about 11 inches a year. The desert is dry but it's not the Sahara.

The last 8 months have been extremely wet here, with record rainfalls and record snowfalls. Climate change may not mean "more of the same, but worse." It may mean the climate changes.

Places that are now desert may become wet. Places that are now temperate may become dry. If the models of the Gulf Stream are correct and it shifts to the south, Europe will be left cold and dry while the Sahara will bloom.

The problem is not having enough pieces to the puzzle to predict and prepare. We'd better be ready to adapt.

[all.of.me]

4. 'global warming' is really a deceptive phrase.

it means extremes of weather, not just warm. so when it's cold and wet, like it was this winter, the denial group screams that global warming is a farce. i wonder how we can get that phrase changed?

[Delphinus]

8. I've been using the phrase,

"global climate change" for that very reason. People really need to understand the nuances of the change.

[catzies]

18. It is deceptive and you're right. Much like "pro-life" is deceptive.

How can we get it changed? I don't have an answer for that.

My dad worked for NOAA for many years and was part of the team that studied this over 20 years ago and the phrase he told me then (and that I've used ever since) was "climatological extremism."

[all.of.me]

19. maybe the media will pick up on that phrase if we all change our words.

i went to school for horticulture and soil science in the early 80s. i was told back then that if i wanted a good job to go into hydrology, because water was going to be a big issue very soon. it is an issue, but people are not paying attention. they'll pay attention when we are in crisis, when it is too late. point being, i guess, is that none of this is new. it's all political.

[barb162]

13. That seems impossible

especially with those typically high temperatures

[all.of.me]

20. temps aren't high all over the desert.

i am in northern new mexico at an elevation of 7500 feet. winter here is a little milder than new england. we see 20 below a few times a year, and we have frosts in late june. summer temps here are not generally above 80. 85 is considered a heat wave. overnight it drops to 45 normally. i have lived in tucson, too, where it is pleasant from november to april, in my opinion. after that it's time to head north!

dry farming consists of planting in small wells that collect the water (there was actually an article about that in the latest nat'l geographic or smithsonian, can't remember which). the seeds are also adapted to this method of farming. our soils are also different - heavy clay, which holds moisture, unlike sand. our desert is not sandy, unless you're near a river.

there are a lot of misconceptions about the desert.

[all.of.me]

7. there are LOTS of morans moving here, building and sucking up the water.

where i live, there are a lot of second homes. people build, which takes a lot of water, and they come only a couple weeks a year. meanwhile, it takes water to heat those places all winter long. people that aren't even here are sucking up our water. sad part is, they don't care, but they may be creating a ghost town.

[eppur_se_muova]

10. Time for yet another plug of Marc Reisner's "Cadillac Desert" --

read the book or watch the documentary.

http://www.amazon.com/Cadillac-Desert-American-Disappearing-Revised/dp/0140178244/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-8902205-0044004?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1175878506&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.com/Cadillac-Desert-Transformation-Chinatown-Feature/dp/0780019261/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3/002-8902205-0044004?ie=UTF8&s=video&qid=1175878506&sr=8-3

[ellie]

3. I read a study

where drought-like conditions are really the norm in the Southwest. It was the past 50 or so years of non-drought-like weather that were the anomaly. I'm going out in June to check out Glen Canyon. I can't wait!

[hatrack]

5. It's down over 100 feet, not even half full

Lots of cool side canyons to explore - I'm jealous!

:hi:

[all.of.me]

6. it's all relative.

people who don't live here feel there is not enough moisture. but more rain will kill off the ecosystems. they thrive on our scant rainfall.

[LiberalFighter]

9. Need to control population movement

Restrict the building of homes so it reduces the burden on sustaining life.
Restrict the population in areas that cannot sustain it.

If people are living part-time either because they are retired or for health reasons there should be consideration of converting those homes to all year residences to reduce the burden to the ecology. Provided it is possible to match up the people that live there during the winter months and those that live there during the summer months.

If they haven't changed the coding for homes they should start now. They could consider restricting the size of homes and the size of property that could be used for family living. This should also be for commercial properties.

Reduce the amount of property that can be landscaped requiring constant maintainance involving water. Encourage natural landscape not requiring watering and not requiring mowing. This could be applied to current and new homes.

[diva77]

11. Guess it's time to invest in one of these

Solar-powered Desalinators to Provide Drinking Water in Arid Areas



http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-3178-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html

[all.of.me]

21. that is really cool! thanks! nt

[diva77]

27. you're welcome!

:-)

[cascagraphic]

12. kick

[barb162]

14. Shouldn't population growth be limited in those areas?

Like no more housing being built?

[all.of.me]

22. yes!

but my experience has been that increased property taxes are more important. only a crisis will change things.

there was actually a moratorium on building in santa fe and albuquerque a few years ago, because of the drought. but when we had a wet winter two years ago, they withdrew it.

my county is not famous for good planning, so we keep building and building! $$$$$$$$$ !

[MasonJar]

15. The desert is going to keep expanding. Where these citizens will

continue to get water as the mountains no longer have melted ice runoff must be a genuine concern. We could have massive water wars right here in the US.

[all.of.me]

24. they won't worry about it until it's gone.

they are more concerned that maybe taxes are cheaper, jobs more plentiful, the views are beautiful. they are, obviously, not concerned about water. wait until they have none! then they will move somewhere else and leave hundreds of ghost towns as reminders. the people that will fare well are the ones in completely sustainable homes, as far as i can see at this point.

[Coventina]

16. Yet 10,000 people move to Phoenix EVERY MONTH!

My family has lived here since before Arizona was even a state, and I can tell you, the impact on the environment with this population explosion has been devastating.

We have old family photographs of snow, that's right SNOW on the ground, in what is now downtown Phoenix. Now, the urban heat island would make that a scientific impossibility (along with global warming).

Our aquifers are drying up, with the ground water being pumped out at an unbeliveable rate. All our rivers are dammed up, killing off untold numbers of animal and plant life. And it STILL isn't enough to keep all these jackass newcomers watered. 3000 square foot homes complete with pools are built at the rate of an acre an hour for all these idiots.

:argh:

[all.of.me]

23. i saw some photos of a place between tucson and phoenix...

...that were from the 1800s maybe. there was water and grass everywhere! it's so sad.

[slackmaster]

17. How would we be able to tell?

San Diego gets less than 10 inches of rain in a normal year.

[Neshanic]

25. Ok Phoenicians, we will be boarding by suburb.

[AnOhioan]

26. This post makes me grateful I live within view of our....

Great Lakes...despite the "lake effect" snowfall under which we are currently buried.

[Codeine]

28. And yet as far as the eye can see

lush lawns and golf course cover the desert. I believe if we were to limit wasteful water use the area could sustain a decent population, but when we pour ungodly amounts of water into the dirt for pretty grass we don't stand a chance.