STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 29

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Thursday March 29, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 662 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2285 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1989 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1949
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 28, 2007

Dow... 12,300.36 -96.93 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq... 2,417.10 -20.33 (-0.83%)
S&P 500... 1,417.23 -11.38 (-0.80%)
Gold future... 672.90 +4.10 (+0.61%)
30-Year Bond 4.83% +0.02 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.62% +0.01 (+0.17%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head?
Secular Trend Implications
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Fourth quarter 2006 personal income data was released yesterday, which showed a 1.2% increase in the fourth quarter and an increase of 6.3% for 2006. This was up from the 5.2% rate seen in 2005 and marked the strongest annual growth rate so far in the current economic expansion.

-see chart-

It’s not surprising to see employee compensation rise after falling to an extreme low in late 2001 on a year-over-year (YOY) rate of change basis. Since the economic expansion began, the YOY % change in employee compensation has been playing catch-up with corporate profit growth which has remained at double-digit rates year after year. While corporate profits are resting at cyclical highs, employee compensation has a ways to go to its cyclical high.

-cut-

While many financial pundits have been calling for a bottom in housing, which is far from over, many have also called for the bursting of the commodity bubble. The source of this accusation that many draw upon is the decline in energy prices, gold, and the correction in the CRB Index (Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index). However, while we were drenched in daily Dow record news flashes on CNBC, what is not as widely circulated is the new all-time seen in the CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index. Looking at Figure 3 below, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (blue line) has clearly corrected while the CRB Raw Industrials Index continues to soar to new heights. (Notice the similarity in the indexes to that of the 1970s where the start of the decade saw a surge in the CRB index followed by a sideways consolidation in the middle of the decade before the next up-leg to close the decade at nearly a 350% rise. The CRB rose roughly 100% since 2000 and is now going through a sideways correction/consolidation in the middle of this decade.)

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/24
Briefing Forecast 320K
Market Expects 320K
Prior 316K

8:30 AM GDP-Final Q4
Briefing Forecast 2.2%
Market Expects 2.2%
Prior 2.2%

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Final Q4
Briefing Forecast 1.7%
Market Expects 1.7%
Prior 1.7%

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Feb
Briefing Forecast 32
Market Expects 31
Prior 32

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

11. 8:30 reports:

20. U.S. 4-week avg. continuing jobless claims fall to 2.53 mln
8:31 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 20 minutes ago

21. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 32,000 to 2.52 mln
8:31 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 21 minutes ago

22. U.S. 4-week avg. initial jobless claims fall to 316,750
8:31 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 21 minutes ago

23. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims down 10,000 to 308,000
8:31 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 21 minutes ago

25. U.S. Q4 consumer spending up 4.2%, unrevised
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

26. U.S. Q4 business investment falls 3.1%, most in 4 years
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

27. Revisions to GDP reflect price change in truck inventories
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

28. U.S. core PCE price index up 2.2% y-o-y, unrevised
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

29. U.S. 2006 corporate profits grow $285 bln, or 21.4%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

30. U.S. 2006 GDP grows 3.3%, unrevised
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

31. U.S. Q4 corporate profits fall $4.9 billion, or 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

32. U.S. Q4 core PCE price index revised to 1.8% vs. 1.9%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

33. U.S. Q4 GDP revised up to 2.5% vs. 2.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

16. Help Wanted Index falls to 31

07. U.S. Feb. help-wanted index falls to 31 from 32
10:09 AM ET, Mar 29, 2007 - 21 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

3. Crude oil prices drop below $64 a barrel

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices dipped below $64 a barrel Thursday, reflecting some calming of markets as Iran's detention of 15 British navy personnel approached the one-week mark.

Still, prices remained poised to move upward. Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is located along the Strait of Hormuz, through which about two-fifths of the world's oil is transported. Traders worry that oil supplies could be disrupted if unrest escalates there.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 36 cents to $63.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by noon in Europe. The contract settled at $64.08 a barrel Wednesday, its highest close since September.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Shell drops Gulf LNG port

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Shell U.S. Gas and Power (RDSa.L) is discontinuing plans to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal offshore of Louisiana because import capacity will be sufficient without it, the company said Wednesday.

"It's just an assessment of the market," said project manager Greg Koehler in announcing cancellation of the terminal that had been dubbed Gulf Landing.

When Shell proposed Gulf Landing for a site 38 miles (61 km) south of Cameron, La., in 2003, there was one LNG terminal in the Gulf of Mexico. Now, including Mexico, there are seven either operating or under construction and more are planned.

-cut-

Shell is a partner in the Altamira terminal opened last year on the Gulf Coast of Mexico, and it has capacity at existing U.S. ports at Cove Point, Maryland, and Elba Island, Georgia.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070329/bs_nm/shell_lng_cancel_dc

[Roland99]

30. 1:02May crude last up 2.8% at $65.90/brl after $66.10 high

Word is that Nigerian candidate dead...possible panic buying in oil.

[Roland99]

35. Crude futures top $66 to close at a 3-month high

Crude futures top $66 to close at a 3-month high
Natural-gas prices retreat as U.S. supply remains well above average

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-closes-above-66-iran/story.aspx?guid=%7BB3625375%2DAC3D%2D4CEF%2D9C10%2D504868881E4F%7D

Crude-oil futures climbed past $66 a barrel Thursday, pulling the benchmark contract to its strongest closing level since December as traders monitored increasing tension between Iran and the U.K., following Iran's arrest of 15 British troops late last week.

"I am not surprised," said Charles Perry, chairman of energy-consulting firm Perry Management. "Turmoil is still in a developing state with the Brits, so expect prices to continue to creep up until this is settled."

And there "can be some big spikes too, depending on how severe things appear to be," he said.

...

The contract climbed as high as $66.50 during the day, an intraday level the contract hasn't seen since Dec. 5. Prices also stood at their highest level of the year.

[ozymandius]

5. No bonuses for top GM executives: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news), which significantly improved its financial performance in 2006 but did not make a profit, will not pay cash bonuses to top executives for the second consecutive year, the New York Times reported.

very short

[ozymandius]

6. TJX: At least 45.7M card numbers stolen

BOSTON - More than two months after first disclosing that hackers accessed customers' financial data from its computers, discount retailer TJX Cos. has revealed that information from at least 45.7 million credit and debit cards was stolen over an 18-month period.

In a regulatory filing that gives the first detailed account of the breach initially disclosed in January, the owner of T.J. Maxx, Marshall's and other stores in North America and the United Kingdom also said another 455,000 customers who returned merchandise without receipts had their personal data stolen, including driver's license numbers.

The data that was stolen covers transactions dating as far back as December 2002, TJX said in the filing Wednesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

-cut-

But Lang told The Boston Globe, which first reported the filing Wednesday night, that about 75 percent of the compromised cards either were expired or had data from their magnetic stripes masked, meaning the data was stored as asterisks, rather than numbers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070329/ap_on_bi_ge/tjx_security_breach

[ozymandius]

7. Stock rebound in the works

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street was set for a higher start Thursday, the next-to-last trading day of the first quarter, as oil prices calmed down a bit from the recent spike.

At 6:20 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher.

Oil prices retreated in early trading after Wedneday's run-up on concerns about increasing tensions with Iran. U.S. light crude eased 26 cents to $63.82 a barrel in electronic trading.

Treasury prices were lower ahead of the government's final reading on the pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter, due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/29/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2007032906

[ozymandius]

8. How families making $75,000 can get hit with AMT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mr. and Mrs. Middle Class went to Washington last week and delivered a direct message to lawmakers: Kindly get on the stick about the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). We don't feel like being punished because you guys keep punting the problem.

The problem is how to prevent the "wealth" tax from hitting upwards of 30 million mostly middle-class taxpayers by 2010 - and how to deal with the cost of AMT reform, which could reduce federal revenue by between $500 billion and $1 trillion over 10 years.

The AMT threatens so many people for a few reasons:

* The amount of income taxpayers may exempt from consideration under AMT has not kept pace with inflation - even though the average paycheck has.
* The AMT disallows many tax breaks that the middle class enjoys under the regular code, such as personal exemptions for dependent children, property taxes, and state and local income taxes.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/26/pf/taxes/amt_hearing2/index.htm?postversion=2007032615

[Roland99]

13. This frightens as my new job has greatly increased my salary

I only worked half a year last year on this new one (half on the old one) and I had some time off so I hopefully will fall under it for last year (haven't filed yet...will probably do that this weekend).

[Kolesar]

39. Our mortgage is down to $7000, so deductions are barely greater than the standard deduction

Actually, we file separately so I take the standard deduction. So, I am one of these wage earners paying the highest amounts of taxes.

Well, I am glad that you are making more money.

[texpatriot2004]

9. K & R nm

[UpInArms]

10. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.96 Change -0.11 (-0.13%)

Dollar Jostled By Weak Durables Report And Bernanke Testimony

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Jostled_By_Weak_Durables_1175103311615.html

Wednesday was the crux of the week for fundamental currency traders. As US capital markets came on line in the morning New York hours, FX participants went to work evaluating the ongoing uncertainty in the middle east standoff as well as fresh event risk from a durable goods orders report and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee.

Conditions in EURUSD were choppy through all three global sessions with a pronounced swing higher to 1.3375 starting in the London session, almost completely reversing course in a subsequent pull back to 1.3325. Range-bound activity in USDCHF was just as serious as spot made a gradual move to 1.2085 before shooting to 1.2155. Against the British pound, the dollar forced its way to 1.96 in the London session before the pair made a quick swing off of range resistance just below 1.9685. Finally, USDJPY has once again been weighted by risk aversion. The recently volatile pair plunged nearly 160 points from Asian session highs to 116.40.

Though the dollar is still contained within broader ranges across many of the majors, volatility was stoked Wednesday through a number of events that have attracted traders from all asset classes. Through the overnight sessions, market participants were moving on rumors and preliminary news reports on the Iran/UK standoff. The action began just after the close of US markets on Tuesday when a rumor that Iran fired on a US navy ship found its way to trading desks. While the rumor was ardently denied by the US military, jumpy traders had already moved on it. In the low-liquidity conditions of electronic trading, crude quickly soared above $68 per barrel, though it pulled back just as quickly. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the fate of the British prisoners did not completely dissipate when the rumors were doused. As time zones came and went, currency participants clearly went to work clearing risk from their books by unwinding carry positions. Both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc rallied in the crosses and against the dollar as a result. A tailored gauge of geopolitical uncertainty, crude held on to some of its short-lived gains from the overnight. By the morning hours in New York, the active contract was quoted at $64.50, up nearly 2.5 percent from Tuesday’s close.

...more...

Dollar Rebounds as Rise in Oil Forces Fed to Remain Somewhat Hawkish

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Rebounds_as_Rise_in_1175117322854.html

US Dollar – Ben Bernanke’s concern for inflationary pressures has helped the US dollar strengthen against every other major currency except for Japanese Yen, which has danced to its own tune for weeks now. The Fed is in a very precarious position at the moment as they balance the deterioration in the housing market and the downturn in growth with the rise in oil prices. Over the past week, oil prices have jumped 15 percent on the back of growing tensions with Iran. The rise in oil prices have in the past kept central banks on inflation watch and this time, things are no different. Bernanke said specifically that “core inflation remains uncomfortably high” and even though core inflation could slow gradually over time, they have not shifted away from their inflation bias. On the subprime sector, Bernanke said that the central bank is watching the sector very carefully and for the time being, there have been no significant signs of spillover. In plain English, the Federal Reserve Chairman is telling us that they are not ready to lower rates, even though the market has been looking for one. They have also indicated that future rate decisions will be data dependent and judging from the recent trend of US data, the Fed may not be able to hold onto their hawkish bias for long. Durable goods orders were weaker than expected despite the bounce in the headline figures. Orders increased by 2.5 percent in the month of February, after having fallen a downwardly revised 9.3 percent in January. Excluding the more volatile transportation component, orders still fell 0.1 percent, which compares to the market’s forecast of 1.8 percent. The main highlights of this week have since past and there is no significant data on the docket tomorrow. In the meantime, oil will continue to be the market’s center focus. Should oil prices resume their climb, the chances of an August rate cut will become even slimmer. If oil prices top out however the market will refocus on the deterioration in US data and in the case of oil, Iran is the real wild card.

...more...

[loudsue]

21. Damn! Dollar keeps going down.

At this rate, it'll be down to fifty bucks by next week!

:kick::kick::kick:

[Roland99]

12. NYT: Top 300,000 earn as much as bottom 150,000,000

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/29/business/29tax.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Income inequality grew significantly in 2005, with the top 1 percent of Americans — those with incomes that year of more than $348,000 — receiving their largest share of national income since 1928, analysis of newly released tax data shows.

...

While total reported income in the United States increased almost 9 percent in 2005, the most recent year for which such data is available, average incomes for those in the bottom 90 percent dipped slightly compared with the year before, dropping $172, or 0.6 percent.

The gains went largely to the top 1 percent, whose incomes rose to an average of more than $1.1 million each, an increase of more than $139,000, or about 14 percent.

The new data also shows that the top 300,000 Americans collectively enjoyed almost as much income as the bottom 150 million Americans. Per person, the top group received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.

Smashing!!

[AnneD]

14. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. Where do I start today. I have more bones to pick than the town glue factory. I'll just do a laundry list.

1. Ben 'Baghdad Bob' Bernanke. What wasn't give much air play by our snooze was that another reason BB gave for our economic woes was that our tight labour market was causing the pay to go up and cause all this 2-3% inflation. That statement right there convinces me that our inflation rate IS closer to 11%. I remember when inflation was REALLY 2-3% and the treasury did not get THIS bent out of shape. Wages are the last to go up and that is in response to high costs. Now, to believe BB, you have to believe the government stats on unemployment. Can I see a show of hands out there of folks that believe the unemployment stats......chirp chirp.....chirp chirp.......

2. And about this wage disparity. I know life isn't fair and I expect those that take the risk should get the extra reward, but those numbers Roland, show a rigged game. My odds are better in the back alley throwing craps.

3. AMT....you think the natives are restless now.....wait till the AMT hits the middle class. We will go socialist over libertarian is my best guess. Then the GOP will finally understand why FDR did what he did.

I also want to mention that I watched an interesting show on PBS about the Boomer Generation. It was a nice overview. One of the things they talked about was that Viet Nam and the three assassinations caused such a deep distrust of the government. I mulled that one over and I think I have to agree. And before I felt totally worthless, they did mention that our gift to the next generation was the computer. I liked that. Another thing that I found interesting was that as a group, the Boomer's had more entrepreneurs (and the psychological make up is right) than any other age group. One nice thing that was said about the US Boomer's was that you can get your things manufactured in China, Japan can handle you precise technology, but if you wanted a new idea...the place to go is the US. We as a group really think outside the box. Having traveled around a bit, I have always thought that about the US. It was nice to hear someone else thinks that too.

Basically, it will be as some of us Boomer's have thought all along. You can't trust the government and you best devise your own nest egg. But you have everything you need to make a go of it.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

18. One could say that "Think Globally, Act Locally" applies financially, too.

[Hugin]

20. "My odds are better in the back alley throwing craps."

:rofl:

Where do you think I've been the past couple of months?

I'll have Dirty Eddy save you a couple of spots. ;)

[AnneD]

25. When I go to Vegas...

If I am gambeling...I play 21 because the odds are slightly less for the house. But if I want to meet cool people-I head to the craps tables-those are my kinda people.;)

[Ghost Dog]

15. Asian Energy Stocks Rise on Oil Price; BHP Gains, Sony Drops

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a7ipDopSTpns&refer=asia

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian energy stocks rose, led by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Cnooc Ltd. after oil traded near a six-month high on concern supplies from the Middle East will be disrupted.

``The last few days of oil price increases have to translate into earnings at some point,'' said Angus Gluskie, who helps manage about $307 million at White Funds Management in Sydney.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., which has overtaken Bank of America Corp. as the world's second-largest bank, led lenders higher in Hong Kong and China after a People's Bank of China survey showed their confidence is improving.

Sony Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. declined after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation remains a risk in the region's biggest export market.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index was little changed at 144.90 at 7:25 p.m. in Tokyo. A measure of energy stocks climbed 1.3 percent. The benchmark is heading for a 3.1 percent gain this quarter.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.1 percent to 17,263.94, while the broader Topix index was little changed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 1.4 percent, the most in the region. Other markets rose, except in China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

17. European stocks rebound

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070329/afp/070329123154eco.html

LONDON (AFP) - European stock markets rallied as oil prices cooled and amid fresh takeover talk and positive company earnings, dealers said Thursday.

In late morning trading, London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.60 percent to 6,304.80 points. Frankfurt's DAX 30 index of leading shares climbed 0.73 percent to 6,866.72 points and in Paris the CAC 40 dropped 0.81 percent to 5,597.80 in early afternoon trade.

The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone blue chip shares advanced 0.75 percent to 4,159.06 points at the half-way stage.

The euro stood at 1.3342 dollars.

Europe's main indices had slid Wednesday owing to surging crude oil prices, which increase companies' costs, and comments by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that the outlook for the depressed US housing market was "uncertain."

/...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Bourses keep gains as banks and oils rally

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B63579ec2%2D008a%2D4727%2Db135%2Db2f7fe4d45d2%7D

European equity traders put aside concerns over growing geopolitical strife as banks recovered from the previous session’s losses, while oil groups continued to benefit from crude prices near six-month highs. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed up 1.1 per cent to 1,516.6, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax added 1.2 per cent to 6,897.1, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 1.4 per cent to 5,631.5 and London’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.9 per cent to 6,324.2. DaimlerChrysler, the German carmaker, climbed on expectations it will receive bids from a number of private equity groups by Friday. Magna International, the Canadian automotive parts manufacturer is also expected to submit an offer, while the Financial Times learned on Thursday that General Motors, will not submit a first-round bid, but may enter later in the the sale process. DaimlerChrysler’s shares gained 0.5 per cent to €60.91.

[AnneD]

19. A copy of my letter to Ron Paul.....

From: Anne D


E-Mail Address: XXXXXXX

To the Honourable Ron Paul, The other day you were mentioning that the M3 rate was now handled (or calculated) by a private company and that you figured that the rate of inflation was really 11% due to excess money supply. I know you to be very up on economics, in fact we post many of your writings on our economics thread. We would like to know where you get your M3 statistics. We think they stopped publishing them because they don't want the public to know the true state of the economy. Thank you for all your efforts on the public's behalf. Anne

Sorry for the royal We but I think he will get the message.

[Roland99]

22. Hopefully you'll hear back soon.

[loudsue]

23. Ron Paul rocks.

I know he's a republican, but he's the good kind.

:kick::kick::kick:

[AnneD]

26. We think of him as a Libertarian around here....

come to think of it I don't what his affiliation is...I just like his orneriness.

[Hugin]

24. I've been meaning to ask him...

to find out why is it exactly things such as... Oh, say... Medicare, Social Security,
and OASDI appear in both the Deductions and Benefits sections of my latest pay stub?

I'm thinking I'm being set up for bad news...

Maybe he can get to the bottom of it.

[burf]

28. Great letter, AnneD

Thanks for contacting Rep Paul.

[Kolesar]

38. What's M3? Serious question.

[Roland99]

27. 12:37pm - GDP revision up to 2.5% inspires mexed missages

DJIA 12,313.82 +13.46 +0.11%
Nasdaq 2,406.17 -10.93 -0.45%
S&P 500 1,418.41 +1.18 +0.08%
Dow Util 501.45 -0.01 -0.00%
NYSE 9,254.86 +36.33 +0.39%
AMEX 2,166.93 +15.68 +0.73%
Russell 2000 795.50 -1.90 -0.24%
Semcond 462.28 -6.83 -1.46%
Gold future 664.20 -8.70 -1.29%
30-Year Bond 4.83% +0.00 +0.04%
10-Year Bond 4.63% +0.01 +0.30%

[Roland99]

29. Fourth-quarter GDP revised up to 2.5%; Corporate profits fall for first time in five quarters

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-fourth-quarter-economic-growth-revised/story.aspx?guid=%7BCCA69754%2DE531%2D4D49%2DBB4A%2DEADD64E4D6D9%7D

The nation's economy grew at a 2.5% annual pace in the final three months of 2006, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 2.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The upward revision to gross domestic product mainly reflected higher prices for trucks that boosted vehicle inventories. Investments in software were revised slightly lower. Exports were revised higher.

"The expansion is intact, but growth remains below potential," wrote Augustine Faucher, an economist for Moody's Economy.com.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting the 2.2% estimate to be unrevised. The economy grew at a 2% pace in the third quarter

Must have been a last-gasp in the MEW. Without MEW this economy is at or below 0%.

And now corporate profits are tanking, sub-primes are dissolving and foreclosures are skyrocketing? MEW is going to dry up faster than a brief shower over the Sahara but I'm sure we'll keep seeing positive GDP numbers from the gubment.


But, there's this:

Morgan Stanley economists cut their first-quarter GDP estimate from 1.6% to 1.4% following the report. "We project that economic growth has slowed significantly further this quarter to near 1% annualized," wrote Peter Kretzmer, senior economist for Bank of America.

[Roland99]

31. Home equity delinquencies rise 7% in 4Q

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-defaults-creep-up-home/story.aspx?guid=%7B528C794D%2D7915%2D4622%2DBB51%2D2F560AC32994%7D

The rate of delinquencies on home equity loans rose about 7% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter in the latest sign of cracks in the credit business attached to real estate.

The overall rate of delinquencies among all eight loan categories tracked by the American Bankers Association crept up to 2.23% in the fourth quarter from 2.12%, staying close to the 10-year average rate of 2.20%.

...

Breaking down the consumer credit market, late payments on credit cards were 4.56% of accounts in the fourth quarter, compared to 4.57% in the third quarter (seasonally adjusted).

Indirect auto loan delinquencies increased to 2.57% from 2.35% and direct auto loan delinquencies decreased to 1.85% from 1.87%. Personal loan delinquencies remained at 1.91%

Kittens are in distress!

MEW! MEW! MEW!

[AnneD]

32. State pushes for $210 million in fines against TXU

TXU, the state's largest electric company, should pay $210 million in penalties for allegedly manipulating wholesale power prices in 2005, Texas Public Utility Commission officials said Wednesday.

PUC staff are recommending TXU Wholesale, the arm of Dallas-based TXU that generates electricity for sale onto Texas' power grid, pay $140 million in fines and $70 million in customer refunds.

The commission alleges wholesale power prices rose 15.5 percent statewide in the summer of 2005 because of price manipulations.

The company denied the claims and said it intends to fight them.



http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4670419.html

Our first year at deregulation and this nonsense. The power companies are airing commercials promoting consumers 'right to choose their power co', because the legislature is talking about re-regulating them for the sorry job they have done. Folks are pissed.

[AnneD]

34. Find gives oil-hungry China a lift

BEIJING — For 15 years, China's oil companies have scoured its territory for new oil sources, drilling in Central Asian deserts and the floor of the Pacific, hoping to reduce rising dependence on imports.

After years of disappointment, one company reportedly has made a major discovery.

PetroChina Ltd. has found an offshore field that could become China's biggest new domestic petroleum source in a decade, with reserves of 2.2 billion barrels, the official Xinhua News Agency said Wednesday.

The scale of the find, if confirmed, would be welcome news to the communist government. China became a net oil importer in the late 1990s and now is the world's No. 2 consumer after the United States, and consumption last year rose another 9.3 percent to 2.4 billion barrels.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4669964.html

This may buy the US some time before the rug is pulled out from under us.

[Ghost Dog]

36. Closing numbers, blather

Dow 12,348.75 Up 48.39 (0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,417.88 Up 0.78 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,422.53 Up 5.30 (0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.632% Up 0.012
NYSE Volume 2,854,715,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,987,904,000

4:20 pm : Riding a shift in sentiment and better than expected economic data, the stock market started Thursday's session on an upbeat note. Its bullish tune quickly changed, however, when the technology sector got hit with selling interest and oil prices spiked more than $2.00 to trade above $66 per barrel.

When it seemed as if the market was destined to suffer another down day, things changed just as quickly in the final hour as a rush of buying interest pushed the major indices back into positive territory. The Nasdaq for its part was down as much as 20 points at its low for the day.

There wasn't any specific news catalyst for the late surge, but it was emblematic of a market that has had a manic demeanor ever since the global stock market sell-off on Feb. 27.

At the end of the day, nine out of ten economic sectors had recorded a gain. The lone holdout was technology (-0.12%) but its loss is better than it appears considering the sector was down close to 1.0% with less than two hours to go in the session.

One of the "rallying" points for the market was the relative strength of the financial sector (+0.57%) which was a main beneficiary of the late-day buying interest.

Energy (+0.91%) was another notable leader as it drafted off the surge in crude prices that followed reports of the death of a presidential candidate in Nigeria. That news, combined with the growing tension in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the UK, added to the sense of uncertainty for traders with respect to supply lines and drove a speculative rally that saw crude futures for May delivery top out at $66.50 per barrel.

Separately, it was reported that initial claims fell 10,000 to 308,000 in the latest week and that Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.5% from 2.2%. Those indications were well-received (even though the GDP data is dated) as they reinforced the view that labor market conditions remain strong and that economic growth is moderating to a point that should help curb inflation.

The late rally pushed the S&P 500 into positive territory for the year (+0.30%). Friday marks the end of the first quarter for traders and the Personal income and Spending report, which contains the Fed's favored inflation indicator in the form of the core-PCE index, should help determine if the first quarter ends on a positive or negative note for the S&P.DJ30 +48.39 NASDAQ +0.78 SP500 +5.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1471/1515/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1253/2021/1.41 bln

3:25 pm : Heading into the home stretch, the market is attempting to close today's session on an upbeat note.

Both the Dow and S&P have moved into positive territory again aided by some modest, but broad-based, buying activity.

Oil prices have moved off their highs for the day (+$1.95 at $66.03) and there are only two economic sectors now - technology (-0.38%) and consumer discretionary (-0.02%) - that are showing a loss. DJ30 +37.89 NASDAQ -6.49 SP500 +3.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1798/1151/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1505/1720/1.16 bln

3:00 pm : The broader market is little changed for the session, which isn't all that bad considering oil prices have pushed above $66 per barrel and sector leadership has been spotty.

Gains in the energy and financial sectors are the main pegs holding up the market at this juncture. Overall, however, sector leadership is split with five sectors trading up and five sectors trading down. No sector has moved more than 1.0%.

One of the questions that will hang over the market from now until the close of trading tomorrow is, will the &P 500 end the first quarter higher or lower from where it began the year? At the moment, the S&P 500 is down 0.07% year-to-date.DJ30 +0.32 NASDAQ -13.09 SP500 +0.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1851/1096/1.42 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1680/1530/1.06 bln

2:30 pm : The stock market continues to be pressured today by two driving forces: rising oil prices and a weak technology sector.

The former has been the more influential source in terms of today's action as it has piqued concerns about both inflation and a slowdown in consumer spending.

With Bernanke emphasizing yesterday that Fed policy remains oriented toward inflation control, there hasn't ben any discernible flight to quality in the Treasury market with stocks retreating on the oil price spike. In fact, the 10-year note is down two ticks with its yield at 4.63%.DJ30 -10.34 NASDAQ -17.09 SP500 -1.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1876/1047/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1658/1521/965 mln

2:00 pm : The bulls have lost their mojo for the time being, unable to dismiss rising oil prices as they did earlier.

Technology (-0.70%) is today's loss leader with the semiconductor stocks getting hit the hardest by selling interest. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 1.50%; meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is off 0.70%.

Separately, the transportation average, which was up 1.0% earlier, has stumbled in response to the rise in oil prices and is now down 0.55% for the sessionDJ30 -13.94 NASDAQ -15.53 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1644/1265/1.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1413/1756/875 mln

1:25 pm : The indices are on the defensive in early-afternoon trading as a sharp jump in oil prices (+$2.25 at $66.33) has led to a pickup in selling interest.

The spike in oil prices is rooted in supply concerns that are hitting a fevered pitch based on bothersome political developments in the Persian Gulf and Nigeria.

Recent selling activity has been broad-based, and for the first time today, the three major indice are in negative territory together.DJ30 -11.38 NASDAQ -12.53 SP500 -0.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1554/1329/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1339/1810/782 mln

12:55 pm : The indices are in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment, as traders anxiously watch the action in the energy pits where crude futures for May delivery have spiked $1.85 today to $65.93 per barrel.

Prices were up earlier, but by only a modest amount. The recent spike is being attributed to news reports regarding the death of a presidential candidate in Nigeria that have provided an added sense of uncertainty for oil traders who have been fixated on the tension in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the UK.

As one might expect, the uptick in crude futures has given the energy sector (+0.94%) an added boost that has valuted it to the top of the list of today's best-performing sectors.DJ30 +24.75 NASDAQ -7.89 SP500 +2.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1580/1295/932 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1303/1835/697 mln

12:30 pm : The major indices continue to trade in mixed fashion with mounting losses in the technology stocks carrying the Nasdaq further into negative territory and acting as a weight on the blue chip averages.

Overall, though, there isn't a great deal of conviction being shown on the part of either buyers or sellers at this juncture, as the indices are showing only modest point changes from their opening levels.

The same can be said for the Treasury market where modest losses are seen across the curve. The 10-year note is down 2 ticks with its yield at 4.63%.DJ30 +22.11 NASDAQ -8.00 SP500 +2.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1515/1344/846 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1225/1880/625 mln

11:55 am : The stock market reversed course this morning, switching from yesterday's bearish bias and adopting a bullish outlook.

There wasn't any specific news catalyst for the change in sentiment, but the quick change was in keeping with a market mood that has been on the manic side ever since the global stock market sell-off on Feb. 27.

No matter the impetus for the mood change this morning, the bullish bias was solidified when the initial claims and final Q4 GDP reports came in better than expected.

Claims for the latest week fell by 10,000 to 308,000 while Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.5% from 2.2% (that is still down from the 3.5% that was first reported for Q4 GDP).

The combination of these reports, though, refocused the market's attention on the prospect of a soft landing that is accompanied by a moderation in inflation. Accordingly, the market has been fairly resilient to selling pressure today.

The indices, however, haven't gone on a bullish stampede as they have been held back by a lack of participation from the technology sector (-0.20%). That retreat has been paced by a weak semiconductor group (-1.00%).

Upside moves in a number of financial stocks have provided a measure of support that has enabled the Dow and S&P to keep their head above water since the opening bell.

Materials (+0.40%) has also been a pocket of relative strength, aided by the outperformance of the steel group which has rallied on the news that U.S. Steel (X 100.18, +2.57) is going to acquire Lone Star Technologies (LSS 66.06, +17.61) for $2.1 billion or $67.50 per share in cash.DJ30 +34.13 NASDAQ -3.19 SP500 +3.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1263/1548/699 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 960/2114/512 mln

11:30 am : The technology sector (-0.05%) continues to lag the action, but relative strength in the financial sector (+0.73%) has continued to be a supportive factor for the broader market that has enabled the major indices to continue to trade in positive territory.

Aside from technology, the managed care group (-2.61%) is another notable pocket of weakness. A UBS downgrade of UnitedHealth (UNH 52.86, -1.92) to Neutral from Buy that was attributed to concerns about tepid commercial performance and outsized government exposure has set the trading tone for the industry today.DJ30 +51.27 NASDAQ +1.20 SP500 +5.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1292/1474/595 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 975/2063/426 mln

11:00 am : The natural gas inventory data at the bottom of the hour leaned slightly to the bearish side for the equity market as supplies dropped by 22 billion cubic feet versus an expected drawdown of 19 billion cubic feet.

Energy prices, however, have actually pulled back in the wake of the report, so the latest dip in the major indices can't be pinned on the oil price movement.

When assigning blame, the tech sector (-0.03%) is the place to look as it got hit with a wave of selling interest that knocked down the broader market. Semiconductor stocks aren't extremely weak, but on a relative basis, they are on the weak side today as evidenced by a 0.30% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. DJ30 +36.85 NASDAQ +0.57 SP500 +4.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1020/1687/427 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 777/2224/312 mln

10:30 am : The market thus far has refused to bow to selling pressure as it is holding near its best levels of the day.

Its resilience is a function of broad-based participation today from a sector and market-cap standpoint. Steel is the top-performing industry group (+3.00%) following news from U.S. Steel (X 100.92, +3.31) that it will acquire Lone Star Technologies (LSS 66.30, +17.85) for $2.1 billion or $67.50 per share in cash.

Separately, the shift in sentiment from Wednesday is perhaps best seen among industry groups like investment banks (+1.23%), thrifts & mortgage (+1.08%), and industrial REITs (+1.12%), as they were all among yesterday's leading laggards.DJ30 +66.49 NASDAQ +9.76 SP500 +7.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 957/1703/288 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 726/2182/208 mln

10:00 am : The initial rush of buying interest has tapered off and the indices have faded from their best levels of the morning.

One item that will remain a focal point throughout the session is the level of crude prices. Thus far, the market has managed to shake off the fact that oil prices are again heading higher and are pushing $65 per barrel at the moment (+$0.62 at $64.70).

There is a natural gas inventory report due to be released at the bottom of the hour that could serve as a trading catalyst if it succeeds in moving crude prices definitively in either direction from their current standing.DJ30 +49.67 NASDAQ +8.30 SP500 +6.30 NASDAQ Vol 134 mln NYSE Vol 46 mln

09:40 am : The stock market has wasted little time reclaiming the bulk of yesterday's losses.

As noted earlier, there wasn't any specific news catalyst to account for the shift in sentiment. However, better than expected initial claims and Q4 GDP data helped solidify the bullish bias that was evident in the futures market prior to the release of those reports at 08:30 ET.

Now, the question is whether the market can sustain this positive disposition. Early indications look favorable as there is broad-based participation in the opening advance with all ten economic sectors trading higher and the financial sector (+0.80%) assuming a leadership position.DJ30 +65.53 NASDAQ +12.68 SP500 +7.84

[Roland99]

37. So, let me see if I have this correct...

Stock markets are *supposed* to look to future trends and not past performance to find a direction, right?

So, a revision *up* in the GDP for 2006 Q4 is better than a revision *down* for 2007 Q1?


Just wanted to make sure I had that right.


:silly: