STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 16

[ozymandius]

Friday February 16, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 703 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2244 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1948 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1908
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 15, 2007

Dow... 12,765.01 +23.15 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq... 2,497.10 +8.72 (+0.35%)
S&P 500... 1,456.81 +1.51 (+0.10%)
Gold future... 671.40 -0.60 (-0.09%)
30-Year Bond 4.80% -0.02 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.71% -0.02 (-0.51%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

A Short Look at the Volatility Index
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

The $VIX volatility index is defined as a weighted measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500, which provides a view of investors' expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent times in the markets. Based on yesterday’s close when the VIX approached 10, the times, they are complacent! But will the times begin changing soon? There are some characteristics of the technical chart of the VIX that suggests volatility may be jumping soon. To me, it looks spring loaded to jump. But, are there bullish or bearish implications for the stock market? This article presents a concise look at the technical chart of the $VIX volatility index.

Below is a long term weekly chart of the $VIX from 1997 to the present, showing the S&P price action in the bottom pane. From this one can see that peaks in the VIX corresponded directly with intermediate term bottoms in the S&P 500. While peaks in the VIX corresponded with market bottoms the opposite cannot be said for bottoms in the VIX. By and large, bottoms in the VIX do not correspond to intermediate term tops in the S&P 500. However, the major top in the S&P 500 which occurred in 2000 corresponded with an intermediate term bottom in the VIX.

-see chart-

For a number of reasons outside the scope of this article, volatility cannot go to zero – it must stay above a level which allows the exchanges to make money through spreads. Additionally, the fact that the “fear” component of volatility cannot go to zero results in the existence of a minimum non-zero level that the VIX can never move below. In short, spreads must always exist and fear cannot go bankrupt.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Housing Starts Jan
Briefing Forecast 1590K
Market Expects 1600K
Prior 1642K

8:30 AM Building Permits Jan
Briefing Forecast 1570K
Market Expects 1590K
Prior 1613K

8:30 AM PPI Jan
Briefing Forecast -0.6%
Market Expects -0.6%
Prior 0.9%

8:30 AM Core PPI Jan
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jan
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.3%

10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb
Briefing Forecast 97.5
Market Expects 96.5
Prior 96.9

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

15. 8:30 reports - EWWWWWW!!!

20. U.S. Jan. PPI energy prices down 4.6%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

21. U.S. Jan. core PPI up 1.8% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

22. U.S. Jan. PPI up 0.2% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

23. U.S. building permits down 28.6% year-on-year
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

24. U.S. Jan. core PPI up 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

25. U.S. housing starts down 37.8% year-on-year
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

26. U.S. Jan. single-family permits down 4.0% to 1.121 mn
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

27. U.S. Jan. single-family starts fall 11.2% to 1.108 mln
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

28. U.S. Jan. building permits fall 2.8% to 1.568 mln
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

29. U.S. Jan. PPI down 0.6% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

30. U.S. Jan. housing starts punge 14.3% to 1.408 mln
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

31. U.S. Jan. housing starts fall to lowest rate since 1997
8:30 AM ET, Feb 16, 2007 - 12 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

42. I thought something smelled bad around my computer.

So I had to see what created such a funk. :puke:

[Ghost Dog]

16. 08:30 Reports (snap!)

Feb 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jan
Actual 1408K
Forecast 1590K
Expected 1600K
Prior 1643K

Feb 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Jan
Actual 1568K
Forecast 1570K
Expected 1590K
Prior 1613K

Feb 16 8:30 AM PPI Jan
Actual -0.6%
Forecast -0.6%
Expected -0.6%
Prior 0.9%

Feb 16 8:30 AM Core PPI Jan
Actual 0.2%
Forecast 0.2%
Expected 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

[Ghost Dog]

17. Housing starts plunge 14.3% to 10-year low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-housing-starts-plunge-143/story.aspx?guid=%7BD838E2AD%2D17F0%2D4979%2D86A9%2D2CCA876CF8FE%7D
New home construction down 37.8% year-on-year

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home builders started the fewest homes in nearly a decade in January, as housing starts plunged 14.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.408 million, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

It's the lowest rate for starts since August 1997. Housing starts were down 37.8% compared with January 2006.

Building permits dropped 2.8% to 1.568 million in January, 28.6% below the same month a year ago.

The starts figure was much lower than expected on Wall Street, where economists were looking for a 2% drop to 1.60 million annualized units. The permits figure was close to the 1.58 million expected by median forecast in the MarketWatch survey of economists.

The stunning drop in home building indicates that builders are scaling back their plans on a massive scale to work down the excess inventory of unsold homes on the market. Hopes that a bottom in the housing market has been reached will have to be re-evaluated

Starts of single-family homes dropped 11.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.108 million, the lowest since August 1997. Permits for single-family homes fell 4% to 1.121 million, the lowest since December 1997.

Starts of multifamily units fell 24%, while permits for multifamily units rose 0.4%

Starts fell in three of the four regions in January. Starts rose about 9% in the Northeast, which enjoyed warmer and drier than normal weather in the first half of the month. Starts fell 28% in the West, 15% in the Midwest and 12% in the South. Starts in the Midwest were at the lowest level since 1991. Starts in the West fell to the lowest level since 1996. It was the biggest drop in the West since 1979.
Completions of new homes fell 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.88 million, an indication that a significant amount of new supply is still hitting the market. It takes about 6 months for a home to go from groundbreaking to completion.

There were 1.2 million homes under construction in January, down 14% from the previous January.

The National Association of Home Builders reported on Thursday that its survey of builder sentiment rose in February to the highest level since June. Builders were much more optimistic about sales in six months than in current conditions.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

18. U.S. Housing Starts Plunge to Lowest Level Since 1997

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anVmvT.VpHKg&refer=worldwide

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Builders in the U.S. started work last month on the fewest number of new homes since August 1997 as a glut of unsold houses and the onset of colder weather discouraged new projects.

Housing starts slumped 14.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.408 million, less than forecast and down from December's 1.643 million rate, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits declined 2.8 percent to a 1.568 million pace.

Treasury yields fell after the figures showed residential construction will remain a drag on the economy until the inventory of unsold homes declines. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers this week that the process may extend through much of the year.

``Housing inventories are still beyond bloated, and starts aren't going to recover in any meaningful way until those inventories come down,'' Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, said before the report. ``I would be cautious about calling an end to the housing slump just yet.''

/...

[UpInArms]

38. US Feb UMich Sentiment @ 93.3 (surprise!)

16. U.S. Feb. UMich sentiment below consensus 96.2

17. U.S. Feb. UMich consumer sentiment 93.3 vs 96.9 in Jan.

[ozymandius]

3. Crude oil prices drop below $58 a barrel

VIENNA, Austria - Crude oil prices dipped Friday on forecasts for warmer weather in the U.S. northeast, the world's largest heating oil market.

The market also appeared to be reacting to news that OPEC output had dropped but was still above agreed cutbacks.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery dropped 19 cents to $57.80 a barrel by midday in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract on Thursday lost a penny to settle at $57.99 a barrel.

-cut-

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it expects above-normal temperatures next week to end a spate of freezing weather in the U.S. Northeast, which accounts for 80 percent of the nation's heating oil demand. But the bitter cold of recent weeks hasn't resulted in as sharp a drawdown of heating oil stockpiles as market analysts expected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. OPEC maintains oil demand growth for 2007 at 1.5 percent

VIENNA (AFP) - The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has maintained its estimate for the growth of oil demand in 2007 at 1.5 percent, in line with its previous monthly report.

OPEC said Thursday it expected world oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1.5 percent in 2007, after unusually warm temperatures in the northern hemisphere winter dropped recently.

-cut-

OPEC revised its world economic growth estimate upwards from the previous month to 5.3 percent in 2006 and 4.6 percent in 2007, due mostly to strong growth in the United States, China and India.

more

[Ghost Dog]

68. Oil edges up on Nigerian supply disruption fears, OPEC cuts

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=f3a18b9d-c874-41f7-9242-e2d3edaf587d

LONDON (AFX) - Oil edged up on fears of a disruption to supply from Nigeria following a US warning of wider militant attacks in the African country, plus signs that OPEC is making progress in implementing its recent production cuts.
The US consulate in Lagos is reported to have issued a statement saying Nigerian militants have plans to broaden their attacks beyond the Niger Delta.

Nigeria is Africa's leading oil producer and the fifth largest supplier of foreign oil to the US.

At 5.20 pm, front-month Brent North Sea crude contracts for April delivery were up 1 usd at 58.60 usd a barrel. Yesterday, oil gained 17 cents to close at 57.60 usd.

Meanwhile, front-month New York light sweet crude contracts for March delivery were up 96 cents to 59.48 usd a barrel, after shedding one cent to close at 57.99 usd yesterday.

Prices were also underpinned by the latest indications about how far OPEC's production cuts are working.

Analysts said tracking data showed the cartel's attempts to remove oil from the market, in a bid to raise prices, have been relatively successful. One analyst believes OPEC has managed to cut about 1 mln barrels out of the total 1.7 mln barrels it had aimed for.

/...

[ozymandius]

5. Existing home sales off in 40 states, slide nationwide

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Weakness in the U.S. housing market showed no signs of abating through the end of 2006 as sales slid in 40 states and prices dropped in metro regions with major price gains in recent years, a real estate trade association said on Thursday.

Several Florida metro regions registered a double-digit decline in sale prices in the last three months of the year, while prices in the San Diego region fell 4.5 percent and in Washington, DC, they fell 2.6 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sales across the nation dropped 10.1 percent from October through December compared with the same period in 2005.

The decline across the Western states was the largest, with sales 17.8 percent lower than the year-ago period.

more

[modrepub]

6. Philly Fed Survey

Philly Fed Survey:

Feb. output stagnant in Philadelphia

By Bob Fernandez
Inquirer Staff Writer

Philadelphia-area manufacturers are reporting virtually no growth in February, and plant managers have curtailed employee hours, according to the results of a monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Link: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/16709891.htm

[Ghost Dog]

7. GLOBAL MARKETS-U.S. housing, inflation are investor focus

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070216:MTFH35648_2007-02-16_10-00-33_L16894069&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Investors looked ahead to U.S. reports on housing and producer prices on Friday for guidance on the state of the world's leading economy after a raft of soft data, while red-hot equities cooled a bit in both Europe and Asia.

The dollar nursed losses near a six-week low against the euro and ticked higher versus the yen. European bond prices were steady.

With the U.S. economy in full focus, investors were waiting for U.S. producer price inflation and housing data at 1330 GMT, as well as the University of Michigan February consumer sentiment survey at 1500 GMT.

Economists in a Reuters survey projected a median 0.5 percent fall in the U.S. producer price index compared with a 0.9 percent rise in December. Housing starts were seen slightly lower and consumer sentiment up a bit.

The degree to which the U.S. economy is cooling has been the key focus for many investors over the past few months, with varying views on how much a slowdown will effect other countries and markets.

...

Equity prices were generally lower. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> was 0.1 percent weaker after hitting a six-year high in the previous session.

Spanish bank BBVA (BBVA.MC: Quote, Profile , Research) tumbled more than 3 percent after it agreed to buy U.S. bank Compass Bancshares for $9.6 billion.

Earlier, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> average dipped 0.12 percent, snapping a five-session winning streak. It closed down 21.58 points at 17,875.65. On the week the Nikkei added 2.12 percent; on the year it has gained 10.95 percent.

The broader TOPIX <.TOPX> index fell 0.12 percent to 1,774.53.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

8. Key 10-year JGB yield down to 1.7% on U.S. rate falls

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070216/kyodo/d8nanou00.html

(Kyodo) The yield on the key 10-year Japanese government bond fell Friday tracking overnight falls in U.S. long-term interest rates.

In interdealer trading, the yield on the No. 284 1.7 percent bond dropped 0.040 percentage point from Thursday's close to 1.700 percent.

The price of the key March futures contract for 10-year bonds rose 0.42 point to 134.30 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the yield down 0.038 percentage point to 1.913 percent.

The fall in the Japanese government bond yields came after U.S. long-term interest rates declined overnight amid receding expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the near future.

Traders said that the fall in the Japanese yields was, however, limited due to speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its next two-day policy-setting meeting from Tuesday.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

9. Japanese Stocks Drop; Dollar Up vs. Yen

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070216/ap/d8nanjlo0.html

Japanese stocks fell Friday, ending a five-session rallying streak, as investors locked in profits as recent strong economic data spurred expectations the central bank may raise interest rates next week.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed at 17,875.65 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Friday, down 21.58 points, or 0.12 percent, from the previous day. On Thursday, the index rose to 17,897.23 points, its highest close since May 8, 2000.

Investors sold real estate and electric power firms on concerns about their large debts ahead of the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates next week.

Losers included Mitsubishi Estate Co., which fell 2.16 percent to 3,620 yen ($27.39) and Tokyo Electric Power Co., which posted a 1.42 percent decline to 4,170 yen ($35.04).

...

Despite Friday's pullback in the Nikkei, traders said they expect the index will continue to advance next week as buying interest remains in blue-chip stocks given their solid earnings prospects. "The current underlying tone is very strong, and unless we see any signs of the market being overheated, this will continue," said Hiroshi Arano, an adviser at Dai-ichi Kangyo Asset Management.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

10. HK stocks edge up, Chinese telecom shares shine

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hongkongMktRpt&storyID=2007-02-16T090828Z_01_HKG144345_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-HONGKONG-STOCKS-UPDATE-4.XML

HONG KONG, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Hong Kong blue chips edged up just 0.14 percent on Friday ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, as players took on the sidelines despite another record close on Wall Street.

Shares in Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong <.HSCE>, or H shares, climbed 0.80 percent to 9,957.76, led by gains in China Telecom (0728.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) after an upgrade. The index, which has dropped 3.7 percent this year, rose 0.43 percent for the week.

"Anticipation of a higher open on the first trading day of the Year of the Pig encouraged players to hold on with their long positions," said Francis Lun, general manager from Fulbright Securities, adding that the index may test a new high as sentiment remained bullish.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> rose 29.49 points to end at 20,567.91 on turnover of HK$37.09 billion (US$4.76 billion), down from HK$49.43 billion on Thursday.

The blue chip index, which has risen 3.02 percent so far this year, lost 0.53 percent for the week.

/...

Note: Years of the Pig are generally considered to be particularly auspicious years in Chinese hearts and minds. There tend to be 'baby booms' in years of the pig, for example.

[Ghost Dog]

22. People's Bank of China seeks to dampen surging economy but China faces daunting task on job front

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10009115.shtml

The People's Bank of China said today that banks will have to set aside more money as reserves for the fifth time in eight months to dampen inflation and investment in the world's fastest-growing and fourth-largest economy.

Banks have been told to set aside 10 percent of deposits from Feb. 25th, up from 9.5 percent, the central bank said in a statement on its web site.

The Chinese government fears that cash from record trade surpluses is overheating the economy while it is resisting pressure from the US to let its currency, the yuan to appreciate and result in reducing exports.

...

Xinhua, China's State news agency reported last year that a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) study says that China needs to create 25 million new jobs each year - equivalent to the combined population of Australia and New Zealand.

The report says that this is the country's worst employment crisis ever, as the children of baby boomers flood the job market seeking their first jobs. Their parents were born in the early 1960s, and they themselves in the late 1980s.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

23. China forces banks to curb lending

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article1395443.ece

China tightened bank borrowing today for the fifth time since June, as it grapples to rein back an investment boom fuelled by a massive trade surplus.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) ordered banks to increase the levels of reserves they hold with the central bank.

From February 25, required reserves will be 10 per cent for large banks and 10.5 per cent for small banks.

It is the second move this year in the PBOC’s attempt to mop up the liquidity from the trade surplus, which reached a record $177.5 billion (£91 billion) last year.

Yesterday the central committee of the Communist Party said that controlling investment and credit growth would be a key policy task this year.

The move today is unlikely to be the end of the present monetary squeeze, analysts believe.

Hong Liang, of Goldman Sachs, said: “The hike has delivered a strong tightening signal right before the Chinese new year.”

Inflation remains a modest 2.2 per cent on the consumer price index, despite GDP growth of an estimated 10.5 per cent last year.

But loans are booming and fuelling a red-hot rise in asset prices.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

11. Banks lead European shares lower

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39129.3458912037-889667912&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European shares fell on Friday as weakness for banks followed results from Swedbank and news of a US acquisition by Spain’s BBVA. The Spanish bank, fell 2.2 per cent to €19.53 after it announced the sale of its stake in utility group Iberdrola and plans to issue 196m new shares to help fund the $9.6bn acquisition of Texas-based bank Compass Bancshares. The Spanish group first moved into the US market last year with the purchase of two other Texan groups, Texas Regional Bancshares and State National Bancshares. Last year’s acquisitions required a €3bn capital increase to help repair its balance sheet. Shares in Iberdrola were down 0.4 per cent to €34.76 after BBVA annouced the sale of its 5 per cent stake in Spain’s second-largest power utility. By midday, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.2 per cent to 1,543.58, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell 0.1 per cent to 6,952.05, the CAC 40 in Paris lost 0.1 per cent to 5,714.0 and London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.2 per cent to 6,422.0.

[Ghost Dog]

36. EU: Our economy will outpace U.S. in '07

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8NARVK00.htm

The EU's economy will outpace the United States this year as its current upswing could become "durable," driven by increasing demand at home, the European Commission said Friday as it raised growth figures for 2007.

It forecast both the entire European Union and the euro currency area would grow at a brisk pace this year, upping its prediction for the euro10.9 trillion (US$14.3 trillion) EU economy to grow by 2.7 percent -- instead of 2.4 percent -- and raising its euro-zone forecast to 2.4 percent from 2.1.

The EU executive said the United States will grow 2.5 percent.

"According to our assumptions, the United States will grow this year below the EU growth rate and slightly above the euro area growth rate," EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia told reporters.

This comes after a long period where growth in Europe's economies lagged far behind the rest of the world. The real turnaround was last year, it said.

"2006 was a remarkable year, with growth driven by domestic demand thanks to an improved labor market situation -- 3 million jobs created of which 2 million were in the euro area," the EU executive said.

/...

[kineneb]

50. comment: I had a feeling

that this would happen, when we visited Belgium in 2002. Having one currency simplified exchange between the EU countries. I could see then that they could overtake the US economy.

And from a tourist's point of view, it was great- exchange dollars for euros anywhere, and be able to use them anywhere; no mess at boarders going from currency to currency.

[Ghost Dog]

65. Yes, the common currency has been a strongly unifying force here in mainland Europe.

Although I do observe that apparently most people still perform a rapid (and indeed agile) mental calculation to convert €uro amounts into their old currencies so as to get a more intuitive handle on things.

This may help to contain inflation which some claim has been caused by the change.

It is certainly interesting, using the common currency, to observe how prices (and incomes) vary between EU countries and, indeed, regions.

For me, personally, I find the €uro much easier to work with, mentally, after having to learn to think in terms of thousands and millions of the old Spanish pesetas.

However, I still do find myself sometimes performing a quick division by 1.5 in order to be able to think in terms of pounds sterling (and this, after more than twenty years living in Spain). Perhaps Brits in the US will soon be able to simply divide by two in order to do the same (or then again, perhaps not quite...).

[Ghost Dog]

60. Europe forced lower by (some) banks and oil

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39129.4918634259-889685303&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European shares fell on Friday as weakness for banks followed results from Swedbank and news of a US acquisition by Spain’s BBVA, and oil stocks fell on weaker crude prices.

...

By the close, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.1 per cent to 1,544.07, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax was flat at 6,957.07, the CAC 40 in Paris lost 0.1 per cent to 5,713.59 and London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.2 per cent to 6,419.5.

/..

European shares end lower, BBVA slips on purchase

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - European shares ended slightly lower on Friday, as mining stocks retreated from recent highs and as weak housing data from the United States rattled sentiment in building materials companies.

Spanish bank BBVA (BBVA.MC: Quote, Profile , Research) was a top faller, down 0.5 percent after it agreed to buy U.S. bank Compass Bancshares (CBSS.O: Quote, Profile , Research) for $9.6 billion.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> ended down 0.13 percent at 1,544.03 after hitting a six-year high of 1,550.2 in the previous session.

...

Shares in building materials companies fell after the U.S. government said the pace of U.S. home construction in January suffered the sharpest drop since October.

French glassmaker Saint Gobain (SGOB.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) lost 0.6 percent while building materials company Lafarge (LAFP.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) dipped 0.7 percent.

In Britain, shares in the world's largest distributor of plumbing supplies, Wolseley (WOS.L: Quote, Profile , Research) lost 1 percent. Its shares rallied on Wednesday on takeover speculation.

...

Mining stocks crowded the list of top fallers, with Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile , Research) down 1.3 percent and Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile , Research) off by 1.2 percent.

"If there's any sluggishness in the housing market, you'll begin to see weaker copper prices, for example," Leroy added.

DAIMLER UP

Shares in car maker DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) were among the top winners, extending gains earlier this week on the back of its restructuring efforts.

A report in Automotive News that rival General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) was in talks to buy Daimler's U.S. arm Chrysler helped lift the shares 1.3 percent.

Shares in Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) also extended gains, adding 1.9 percent to Thursday's rise triggered by news of bumper results and a new chief executive.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

61. FTSE ends lower, oil knocks energy stocks

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=londonMktRpt&storyID=2007-02-16T170621Z_01_L165722_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage1

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE ended Friday on a lower note, as lacklustre crude oil prices knocked energy stocks and the benchmark share index paused for breath after several days of scaling six-year highs.

Oil stocks accounted for 50 percent of the index's decline, with oil explorer Cairn Energy (CNE.L: Quote, Profile , Research) down 1.3 percent, BG Group falling 1.5 percent and oil major Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) shedding 0.7 percent.

U.S. crude oil rose above $58 a barrel after the United States warned that militants in Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer, are planning to expand their attacks.

Oil stocks suffered, however, from earlier reports of crude prices falling below $58 amid forecasts for milder weather that would curb heating fuel demand in the United States.

The FTSE 100 .FTSE ended 13.8 points, or 0.21 percent lower at 6,419.5, having briefly touched a new six-year high of 6,439.2 earlier in the session, and notching up a 3.2 percent gain year-to-date.

Gains were also restrained as investors locked in profits from a mid-week burst of global stock market rallies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said inflation concerns were easing in the United States.

"It's (the FTSE 100) a bit knackered at the end of the week. It's had a belting week, it's over 6,400 for the first time in six years or so."

/...

[Ghost Dog]

48. Putin Promotion of Ivanov Marks New Push to Break Oil `Needle'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aqeFs8u34Was&refer=europe

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Sergei Ivanov's promotion to the post of Russian first deputy prime minister, responsible for breaking the nation's reliance on oil and gas, marks a turning point for the economy, analysts said.

President Vladimir Putin promoted Ivanov, a fellow former KGB agent, yesterday, relieving him of his previous duties as defense minister.

``Russia is entering an active phase of industrial policy this year and Ivanov's role is to drive this policy, to help diversify the economy away from oil dependency,'' said Yaroslav Lissovolik, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG's Moscow brokerage.

Russia, the world's largest energy producer, will invest billions of dollars in manufacturing and other non-energy industries. Putin this month urged the richest businessmen to help wean the economy, expanding for a ninth year, off the ``natural resources needle'' by developing ``high-tech, high- value products.''

...

One of Ivanov's new responsibilities will be overseeing a development bank being creating to channel $35 billion into transportation infrastructure, power generation and other sectors through 2011, Tikhomirov said. Medvedev is in charge of national projects in education, health care and housing.

The development bank will oversee the state Investment Fund, which will hold a total of 377.9 billion rubles ($14.4 billion) of budget money in 2009, Arkady Dvorkovich, Putin's senior economic adviser, said today on the sidelines of a conference in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia. The bank aims to attract 3 rubles from the private sector for every ruble the government contributes.

The Investment Fund is one of four main platforms the state prepared to roll out its new industrial policy, which will focus on developing aerospace, shipbuilding, heavy machinery and information technology, Deutsche's Lissovolik said.

The other three platforms are a fund for information technology projects, the creation of special economic zones offering tax incentives to attract businesses, and federal programs targeting specific industries, Lissovolik said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

66. As India Overheats, Mind Your Fingers

http://www.forbes.com/markets/equities/2007/02/16/India-inflation-government-markets-econ-cx_rd_0216markets05.html

With inflation at a two-year high, the Indian government this week slashed fuel prices and banned wheat and milk exports, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, trying to combat a scourge that has destroyed governments at election time.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's ruling Congress party goes to the polls in seven states this year, and in a country where the majority of the population lives below the poverty line, a rise in prices of basic goods has a significant effect.

“The government cannot afford to ignore inflation in our democracy. policy on easy liquidity is now reversing, and this will definitely slow increasing allocations into capital markets,” says Rahul Bhasin, senior partner at the New Delhi-based Baring Private Equity Partners.

Analysts say that economic and corporate earnings growth could ease, with the sectors of the stock market most closely tied to the local economy affected more than others.

...

India’s markets were volatile this week. The Sensex, the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, rallied Thursday to end the holiday-shortened week up 2.47% at 14,355, and the National Stock Exchange’s Nifty rose 2.45% to 4146.

Baring Capital’s Bhasin believes foreign investors will still find India attractive in the long term, but in the short-term, their enthusiasm may be dampened because of a likely slowdown in EPS growth momentum.

“The market needs to readjust to a scenario where growth will not keep on accelerating as it has been. We’re going to see a different growth-inflation mix,” says Bidisha Ganguly, chief economist at the brokerage house Brics Securities. She says interest rates are likely to increase further and stocks in the automobile, banking and housing sectors will bear the brunt.

However, shares in Indian tech companies, whose growth is not as dependent on the economy, remain good buys. So if you’re an investor, hang on to your Wipro (nyse: WIT - news - people ) and Infosys (nasdaq: INFY - news - people ) shares, analysts say. Consumer goods companies, like Hindustan Lever, Philips and Videocon (other-otc: VCNIF - news - people ), are also likely to see growth.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

12. Dollar stays near 5-week low vs. yen in Tokyo on lasting GDP impact

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070216/kyodo/d8nan83g0.html

(Kyodo) The U.S. dollar traded near a five-week low in the lower 119 yen level Friday in Tokyo, reflecting Japan's strong gross domestic product data and a string of soft U.S. economic data.

At 5 p.m., the dollar was quoted at 119.43-45 yen compared with Thursday's 5 p.m. quotes of 119.22-32 yen in New York and 119.95-98 yen in Tokyo. It traded between 119.22 yen and 119.58 yen during the day, most often at 119.38 yen.

The euro fetched $1.3137-3139 and 156.90-94 yen, against Thursday's 5 p.m. quotes of $1.3136-3146 and 156.69-79 yen in New York and $1.3133-3136 and 157.56-60 yen in Tokyo.

Dealers said the dollar retained a weak aspect in the Tokyo deals, hovering a tad higher than its five-week low of 119.17 yen fetched overnight in New York, as the stronger-than-expected numbers for Japan's GDP, released the previous day, bolstered speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next policy-setting meeting from Tuesday.

"The GDP is having lasting effects," said Keizo Tanaka, a senior dealer at Resona Bank. He said that after the release of the GDP data, it appeared that the market was pricing in a February rate hike at 50 percent or more, up from 20-30 percent before the data announcement.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Stg at 6-wk low vs euro on fading rate expectations

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=ukPoundRpt&storyID=2007-02-16T094343Z_01_L16483241_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STERLING-OPEN.XML

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Sterling fell to six-week lows against the euro on Friday as investors scaled back expectations of future interest rate hikes after weak UK retail sales data on Thursday.

The pound also lost ground against the dollar as investors reassessed the need for extra rises in UK borrowing costs from 5.25 percent that many had previously priced in.

...

By 0920 GMT, euro was steady at 67.36 pence, having hit a six-week peak of 67.39 <EURGBP=>. Against the dollar, sterling was down 0.15 percent on the day at $1.9498.

Sterling slid sharply on Thursday after retail sales fell 1.8 percent in January, their biggest monthly fall in four years.

...

Analysts said recent data had undermined sentiment.

"Since the start of the week the declining CPI data, the moderate wage growth and yesterday's disappointing retail sales have strongly weighed on the optimistic sentiment of market participants and got the better of sterling," said Societe Generale in a research note to clients.

In contrast, a survey by pay consultants Industrial Relations Services showed British pay deals rose at their fastest pace in more than eight years in January, which could worry policymakers who are keen to avoid a wage-price spiral.

/..

[UpInArms]

20. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.16 Change +0.09 (+0.11%)

Dollar Downside Limited - Bottom Is Forming

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Dollar_Downside_Limited___Bottom_1171630423004.html

EURUSD - We wrote yesterday that “the rally is likely nearing its terminus. Strong resistance lies ahead at a potential resisting trendline drawn off of the 12/5 and 1/2 highs. Fibonacci resistance is at the 61.8% of 1.3370-1.2865 at 1.3177.” Yesterday’s rally reversed right at the trendline and just shy of the aforementioned Fibonacci level. We maintain that this could be a MAJOR top (the end of an A-B-C correction from 1.2865). Only a break below 1.2865 confirms that wave 3 down is underway. A break of 1.2865 would shift focus to 1.2667, which is where the 1.3370-1.2865 decline would equal the decline from 1.3174. 1.3174 needs to hold in order to keep the immediate bearish bias intact. A break above, while not expected, would give scope to a rally to 1.3263 (78.6% of 1.3370-1.2865).

<snip>

USDJPY - “A decline below exposes the next support level, which is the 38.2% of 114.42-122.21 at 119.24.” The USDJPY decline has stalled at Fibonacci support, tagging 119.17 yesterday. One more low is likely given the RSI extreme in place (240 minute) at 119.17. Rarely does a market turn up (or down for that matter) following a momentum extreme. One more low would create bullish divergence with oscillators and free up the USDJPY for a rally. Still, this pair is nearing at least an interim bottom if not a major one. The 78.6% of 117.97-122.21 at 118.89 may be the level at which the USDJPY ultimately turns higher.

...more...

Dollar Collapses Under Data Downpour

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Collapses_Under_Data_Downpour_1171561528882.html

For the third consecutive session, the dollar has been pummeled in the currency market. While the previous two days have evolved from the cumulative effects of Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s commentary and technicals, fundamentals easily took over Thursday.

The symbolic dollar pairing, EURUSD added modestly to yesterday’s breakout by pushing all the way to 1.3170 before retracing. Taking note, Swiss franc traders followed the anti-dollar sentiment by pushing USDCHF below the 1.2385 range bottom with an extension to 1.2340. On a similar note, USDJPY finally broke through its own floor seen at 120 in 100-point peak to trough move to 119.40. Finally, the British pound, troubled by its own disappointing data, lost 120 points against the dollar to act as the black sheep of the group.

Market-moving economic indicators were in abundance Tuesday – a solid way to keep volatility boosted in the wake of Bernanke’s first round testimony on the Hill yesterday. While the central banker will make a second go today before the House of Representatives, few expect his comments to drift into uncharted territory after side-stepping so many prying senatorial questions. Instead, traders have found there way to manufacturing and inflation numbers to light the dollar’s path. First thing this morning, factory activity shook the market to life with the only positive read for the entire morning. Expected to improve modestly with a 10.6 print, the indicator instead reported the biggest positive jump since July of 2005. Since the manufacturing sector has struggled over the past few months with national and regional gauges marking on-again, off-again contractionary periods, this indicator bodes very well for the fragile recovery in GDP. This indicator also helped to offset the backward looking industrial production number. According the government’s numbers, factory activity last month actually dropped 0.5 percent, the biggest contraction in 15 months.

Looking outside the manufacturing sector, the rest of the session’s data was even more convincing for dollar bears. With the political heat on the trade accounts mounting, today’s TICS report will not go over too well. According to the government’s numbers, net foreign investment in US assets dropped to its lowest level since January of 2001. Waning interest in Treasuries, corporate bonds and equities has left the TICS number well short of funding the physical trade deficit. Changing gears, inflation speculators will be revaluating their CPI outlooks after a weaker than expected report from the import price index. The volatile price gauge reported a 1.2 contraction in prices in January, while annual growth decelerated to 0.1 percent. When looking within the statistics it was easy to see that the energy group heavily influenced the overall indicator. Excluding the 7.3 percent drop in petroleum prices and other fuels, prices actually rose 0.3 percent on average for the month. Now, the market will hold its breath to see whether gasoline exacted the same influence on the consumer basket. Also notable for the day, the weekly initial claims number has darkened the sentiment surrounding one of the US economy’s best performing sectors - labor. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 10th jumped to 357,000, the most since the final week of November. Much of this surprising rise is being attributed to the effects of the harsh winter storms that have hit the Midwest and Northeastern regions of the United States. However, it is hard to associate the highest level of continuing claims in over a year on temporary effects.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

21. ECB's Paramo: Monetary Growth Risk To Price Stability -2-

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=d9da84d1-60b4-44f6-8028-acdd92360385

Fri, Feb 16 2007, 13:01 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Paramo pointed out that recent data show euro-zone money supply growing at its fastest rate since the introduction of the euro despite nearly 15 months of rising interest rates.

The broad M3 money indicator rose 9.7% on the year in December.

Unlike some other major central banks that focus on economic criteria for their interest rate decisions, the ECB also takes into account monetary analysis.

/..

ECB's Paramo: Monetary Growth Risk To Price Stability -3-

Fri, Feb 16 2007, 13:22 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Paramo reiterated the ECB's concern with medium-term risks to price stability. Though the euro-zone's annual inflation rate has been below the ECB's target of under 2% for several months, the central bank is widely expected to continue with its current rate tightening campaign.

The ECB is expected to raise its main interest rate in March to 3.75% from 3.5% currently.

"Price stability is a mid-term objective, so we can't refer just to data for March or even for the whole of 2007 in order to be comfortable that our objective is being met," Paramo said.

The ECB official said mid-term risks to price stability include the gradual impact of past oil price rises on other prices, the possibility of new oil price increases and rising wages.

...

The central banker, however, rejected the idea that stronger growth would allow the central bank to be more aggressive with its rates hikes. "Our mandate is not to generate economic growth but to ensure price stability," Paramo said.

/..

[54anickel]

37. The US as the Leading Currency Manipulator

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=LIU20070215&articleId=4816

by Henry C K Liu

Global Research, February 16, 2007
Asia Times - 2007-02-15

For decades, the United States, a self-professed evangelist for free trade, has been paranoid about other nations manipulating the exchange value of their currencies for trade advantage with counterproductive distortions in global free trade. Such apprehension has even been institutionalized into law.

Section 3004 of Public Law 100-418 (22 USC 5304) requires, inter alia, the secretary of the Treasury to analyze annually the exchange-rate policies of foreign countries, in consultation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and to consider whether countries manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the US dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance-of-payments adjustment or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade. Section 3004 further requires that if the secretary considers such manipulation occurring in countries, such as Japan and China, that (1) have material global current-account surpluses and (2) have significant bilateral trade surpluses with the US, the secretary of the Treasury shall take action to initiate negotiations with such foreign countries on an expedited basis, in the IMF or bilaterally, for the purpose of ensuring that such countries regularly and promptly adjust the rate of exchange between their currencies and the dollar to permit effective balance of payment adjustments and to eliminate any unfair advantage.

Section 3005 (22 USC 5305) requires, inter alia, the secretary of the Treasury to provide each six months a report on international economic policy, including exchange-rate policy. The reports are to contain the results of negotiations conducted pursuant to Section 3004. Each of these reports bears the title "Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies".

Unfortunately, the underlying implication of the law assumes erroneously that current-account surpluses can be by themselves evidence of currency manipulation by the surplus country. In fact, as trade imbalances are the structural effects of fundamentals in the terms of trade, attempts to correct them with exchange-rate adjustments are by definition currency manipulation.

Exchange-rate policies cannot be substitutes for structural economic adjustments necessary for mutually beneficial trade between two economies. Nor can exchange-rate policies be substitutes for sound domestic monetary or economic policy. When two economies are at uneven stages of development trade, a trade surplus in favor of the less developed economy is natural and just until the less developed economy catches up with the more developed one. Otherwise it would be imperialistic exploitation, not trade.

big snip>

US is the head of the currency-manipulation snake

Fundamentally, a currency peg is merely a different path to the same monetary objective as the setting of the US Fed Funds rate, with the Fed Open Market Committee buying and selling government securities to maintain an announced interest rate target. As the US dollar is the key reserve currency in world trade and finance, the United States, through its interest-rate policy, is the de facto head of the global exchange-rate-manipulation snake and the Fed chairman the chief wizard of exchange-rate manipulation.

For decades, beginning with a collapse of budgetary and monetary discipline during the Vietnam War, the US had been manipulating the exchange rate of the dollar downward, a fact obscured in the past decade by the emergence of dollar hegemony, a regime introduced by Clinton administration treasury secretary Robert Rubin to finance the US trade deficit with its capital-account surplus to deliver borrowed prosperity to the US through a global debt bubble fed by the Federal Reserve's dollar-printing frenzy.

Thus it is irony bordering on disingenuousness when Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, in China as part of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue delegation led by Secretary Paulson, voiced concern for the allegedly undesirable distortions that result from an "effective subsidy that an undervalued currency provides for Chinese firms that focus on exporting". For decades, the real market distortion has come from the Fed's interest-rate policy, liquidity bias and inflation targeting. By law, the Fed is obliged to support the US Treasury's strong-dollar policy in defiance of market forces as a matter of national security. And a strong-dollar policy is a professed example of currency manipulation.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Today's Pfenning - Bad Data Begins To Mount

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1229

snip>

Front and Center on the data yesterday was the awful showing of the TIC Data... Recall, I've talked about how this data, which measures the ability of the U.S. to attract investment to finance the Current Account Deficit, had been trending down for the past year. Well... While I'm skeptical of this printing of the TIC Data, it does show that the investment flow went NEGATIVE in December... That's right! NEGATIVE! Obviously, there could have been some year-end "Window Dressing" by money managers... But still, NEGATIVE? That's pretty ugly stuff for the U.S.' ability to attract financing...

Not only did the buying stop by foreigners in December, but the outflows were huge! Domestic investors increased their buying of long-term overseas securities from $37 billion to a record $46 billion. This is a classic illustration of a "lack of funding"... So, the question I asked the desk was... "Why isn't the euro skyrocketing to 1.35?"

Well... The severity of the drop was such that it had to leave a lot of traders scratching their heads and wondering if this is just a rogue printing of this data, or what? Obviously, traders are taking the approach that this will be reversed next month... I'm not so certain of that, though... Look at the previous month's revision... Overall flows showed that the prior month was revised lower from $74.9 billion to $70.5 billion. Uh-Oh...

Capacity Utilization didn't lend a hand to the dollar either, falling to the lowest level since last February... And Industrial Production? Don't look for any help here, either! Industrial Production fell .5%, and marks the 4th monthly decline in the last 5 months... The Philly Fed Index collapsed... And then... The trap door sprung on the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims as they rose to 357K last week... Poor weather was blamed for this rise... But I'm not buying it... Look around at the data this week... Poor this, bad that... It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas... Really... Recall December? The data began to look bad, and the negative Nellies all came out of the woodwork, calling for a rate cut from the Fed, and the dollar suffered.

snip>

Well... Big Ben Bernanke was back on the docket for the "boys" on the "hill" yesterday... Recall, the day before he said that "inflation risks diminish"... Well, I guess he got a memo after the markets took the dollar to the woodshed because of that statement... Because yesterday he reminded the "boys" that inflation rises, the Fed is prepared to raise rates... Just a little band-aid, eh, Big Ben?

Big Ben also gave the Democrat-controlled "hill" a little fuel for their fire when he said that the Chinese renminbi remains undervalued... No Duh! Now, there's a bon-a-fide genius! OK... I better back off, I don't want to hear from June that I was a little hard on the Beaver! Anyway... The renminbi did gain on those words, so it wasn't wasted away again in Margaritaville!

more...


Bwahahahaha!!! :rofl:
And starring Ben Bernanke as....The Beaver

[54anickel]

64. Bernanke, Praised by Democrats, Concedes Wage Gap (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNa2BRF1x29c&refer=home

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke got off mostly on the right foot with the Democrats in Congress now overseeing the central bank.

During the second day of his semiannual economic testimony before Congress, lawmakers peppered Bernanke yesterday with questions on incomes, jobs and trade, issues central to Democrats winning control in November's elections. Bernanke got respect by acknowledging members' issues while preserving his independence by steering clear of endorsing specific policies.

``As an opening dialogue, I'm not dissatisfied,'' Representative Keith Ellison of Minnesota, a newly elected Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview yesterday. ``It's the beginning of a conversation.''

Bernanke's performance may help him should he need to defend any decision to raise interest rates and will shape ties with legislators in the run-up to 2010, when his first term as chairman expires. The Fed chief helped his cause with a speech last week on income inequality that won praise from lawmakers including the chairmen of the House and Senate committees holding the two-day hearings.

``I was very pleasantly struck by how thoughtfully he discussed wages,'' Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, told reporters after Bernanke spoke yesterday.

more...

[AnneD]

75. Good Grief Wally

where'd ya find that. It looks like the Breaver's. Good catch 54anickle-from chopper Ben to the Beaver. Do you remember the episode where Ward gave them some money and instead of investing it in Mayfield Electric-the boys invested it in another shooting star stock and lost their money. Boy is that every a great episode for us Marketeers.

[54anickel]

83. Now Ward, don't you think you're being a little hard on the Beaver?

[AnneD]

84. Ah yes...

the first pornographic line that ever slipped past the censors. And come to think of it, I always wondered what that pearl necklace was code for......:dilemma:

[Ghost Dog]

88. ROFL. n/t

[UpInArms]

102. stop! you're killing me!

[Ghost Dog]

13. Gold steady, seen choppy ahead of holiday

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-02-16T112832Z_01_L16478214_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-3.XML

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Friday, taking its cues from the U.S. dollar, but dealers said its uptrend was intact, with the next target $700 an ounce.

In the short term the market consolidated, digesting the recent move above $660. Traders said the market could see some choppy moves due to position adjusting ahead of a holiday in the United States on Monday.

Spot gold <XAU=> retreated to $665.05/665.45 by 1112 GMT, down from $669.00/669.70 an ounce late in New York and off a seven-month high of $671.85 an ounce hit on Wednesday.

A rally in the yen sparked selling overnight in Tokyo and prices took another knock from selling in continental Europe.

"It has been pretty calm so far this morning," Alexander Zumpfe, analyst at Germany's Heraeus, said. "I think after the recent run-up we are now in a consolidation period."

Another trader said there was good support in the market around $664 an ounce, with physical buying appearing in spurts.

/...

[54anickel]

43. Gold sales hit record $65.3bn

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6ff2a310-bceb-11db-90ae-0000779e2340.html

Gold sales jumped 22.4 per cent to a record $65.3bn last year in spite of a 10 per cent fall in demand in tonnage terms, according to the World Gold Council, which released its fourth-quarter report on the market on Thursday.

Last year, price volatility affected the jewellery market, particularly in the first half, but the volume of both investment and industrial demand rose in 2006.

Rapid growth in the popularity of gold exchange traded funds means that ETFs have become the main driver of investment demand growth. The launch of several new gold exchange traded funds helped inflows into ETFs rise by 27 per cent, to 265 tonnes, last year. At the end of last year, total gold stocks held by ETFs and other similar funds amounted to 652.5 tonnes, worth around $13.3bn.

Investment in gold ETF’s overtook demand for gold bars, which fell by 18 per cent last year, to 214.5 tonnes. In total, identifiable investment demand rose by 7 per cent last year. to 636.7m tonnes.

Prospects for investment demand in the first half of 2007 remain good, according to the WGC. The largest gold ETF, streetTRACKS Gold Shares, listed on the Mexican and Singapore exchanges last year, broadening its appeal from its initial New York listing.

more...

[54anickel]

55. Gold Falls, Heading for Weekly Drop on Speculator, Mining Sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aBZNq8bb7Fw0&refer=commodities

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell, heading for the first weekly drop since early January, on selling by commodity speculators who had helped drive prices to a six-month high two days ago. Mining companies were also sellers.

Speculators sold gold when prices climbed to a 26-year high of $730.40 an ounce in May, U.S. government figures show. They probably bought more bullion overnight, on top of holdings that were already the highest since prices peaked last year, John Reade, London-based UBS AG analyst, wrote in a report today.

``It seems the buying signal is running out of steam,'' said Bernard Sin, chief trader at MKS Finance SA in Geneva. ``We saw some producer selling.''

Gold for immediate delivery fell $4.20, or 0.6 percent, to $665.55 an ounce at 11:22 a.m. London time. Prices are down 0.2 percent this week after gaining 9.8 percent in the previous five weeks. Bullion may reach $660 before the rally resumes, Sin said.

``Some profit taking is being seen this morning and is likely to be the theme'' next week because of holidays in China and the U.S., James Moore, an analyst in Kettering, England, for TheBullionDesk.com, said in an e-mailed message. U.S. futures trading is closed on Feb. 19 for Presidents' Day, and the China Lunar New Year holiday runs all week.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

70. Gold steady around support, eyes $700

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-02-16T160457Z_01_L16478214_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-4.XML

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Gold traded steadily around nearby support levels on Friday, but dealers said its uptrend was intact, with the next target $700 an ounce.

In the short term the market consolidated, digesting the recent move above $660.

...

The precious metal failed to react sharply to a slight fall in the dollar just after the release of U.S. housing data, but in the longer term a weaker dollar would lift gold, analysts said.

"If the two central banks (in Europe and the U.S.) move ahead with adjusting their policy rates, interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone will decline," Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Calyon, said in a report.

"This will in our view sustain pressure on the dollar, which would be supportive to gold prices."

/...

[texpatriot2004]

19. K & R nm

[UpInArms]

24. Molson Coors Profit Rises 343%

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16coors.html?ex=1329282000&en=8e55a7b6229cb50f&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

DENVER, Feb. 15 — The Molson Coors Brewing Company, one of the world’s biggest beer companies, said Thursday that its fourth-quarter profit soared on increased sales volume, a lower tax rate and cost savings.

Profit was $99.2 million, or $1.14 a share, compared with $22.4 million, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier, an increase of 343 percent.

Excluding one-time items, profit was $108.4 million, or $1.24 a share, compared with $53.9 million, or 63 cents a share, a year earlier.

Net sales after excise tax payments rose to $1.53 billion from $1.38 billion, and sales volume grew 5.2 percent, to 10.9 million barrels.

Molson Coors, which was formed from the 2005 merger of Molson and the Adolph Coors Company, said it saved $33 million as a result of acquisitions and other items in the quarter.

Net sales in Canada rose 11.3 percent and net sales in the United States gained 10 percent. In Europe, Molson Coors said net sales were essentially unchanged amid lower prices for beer and higher commodity costs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Profit up 95% at Drug Maker

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16drug.html?ex=1329282000&en=251d7bb453d6619b&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

BOSTON, Feb. 15 — Biogen Idec reported Thursday that its fourth-quarter profit nearly doubled on growing sales of treatments for cancer and multiple sclerosis.

But the company’s profit and revenue both fell short of Wall Street expectations. Shares fell sharply as investors shrugged off the profit gain and positive outlook the company offered for Tysabri, a new drug for M.S. that was withdrawn two years ago over safety questions.

Biogen Idec, based in Cambridge, Mass., earned $108.6 million, or 32 cents a share, for the October to December period, compared with $55.6 million, or 16 cents a share, a year earlier, an increase of 95 percent.

Excluding charges for items including acquisitions and a licensing agreement, Biogen Idec earned $184 million, or 53 cents a share, just shy of the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, who expected a profit of 55 cents a share, not counting one-time items.

Revenue rose 12 percent to $708.3 million in the latest quarter, from $632.9 million in the year-earlier period, but short of the $714 million analysts had forecast.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Ex-Official at Jobs Web Site Admits Backdating Options (Monster.com)

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/media/16monster.html?ex=1329282000&en=e5b51c7e4981dde3&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

A former top executive of the company that runs the Monster.com job search Web site admitted in court yesterday that he illegally backdated millions of dollars in employee stock option grants.

Myron F. Olesnyckyj, 45, of New Providence, N.J., pleaded to securities fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, charges that carry potential penalties of up to 25 years in prison and fines of more than $5.2 million. He promised to cooperate, which can earn him leniency.

Mr. Olesnyckyj, a former senior vice president for Monster, agreed to forfeit $381,000, which he said represented the amount he had illegally gained.

After Monster went public in 1996, Mr. Olesnyckyj told Judge Laura Taylor Swain of Federal District Court that he and others had agreed to backdate annual companywide stock option grants, choosing the dates of the grants after looking at the historical records of the company’s stock price movements.

He said that he and others then withheld the illegal backdating from the company’s financial records, which were submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission, auditors, investors and others.

...more...

[54anickel]

27. Wall St. bears enter the house

Stocks set to open lower after the government deliver a very disappointing update on the closely-watched housing sector.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/16/markets/stockswatch2/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were set for some turbulence on Wall Street Friday after the latest government report showed that the housing slump in January was much worse than anticipated.

Nasdaq and S&P futures stayed in negative territory following the housing data, indicating a pullback for stocks at the start of trading.

The Census Bureau reported that housing starts plunged in January, coming in much weaker than forecasts. New homes started in January fell 14.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.41 million from the 1.64 million pace in December. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 1.6 million rate for January.

Before the report, David Kelly, economic adviser for Putnam Investments, said a steeper than expected drop could raise new concerns about the housing slump, while an unexpected rise could cheer markets, even if it adds to the glut of homes available for sale on the market.

"The one big bet that the Fed and everyone is making is that housing is stabilizing," said Kelly. "I think home sellers might appreciate it if starts fall, but for the economy the key thing is not for housing prices to start climbing but for construction spending to stop falling."

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors reported the biggest and most widespread drop in housing prices on record in the fourth quarter, while the National Association of Home Builders' survey of its members' confidence rose in February to its highest level since June.

more....


And the pre-market blather....

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Still shaping up for stocks to stumble out of the gate. Since this morning's economic data isn't going to change inflation expectations, the reports have failed to provide enough of a spark to curb the temptation to take some profits ahead of the weekend following such outsized gains enjoyed this week.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.3. Futures trade holds relatively steady following mixed economic data, still suggesting a lower start for the cash market. Total PPI fell 0.6% (consensus -0.6%) in January, due to a drop in energy prices. The more closely watched core rate rose 0.2%, matching economists' forecasts and the same moderate 0.2% pace in December. That pushes the year/year rate to 1.8% and provides further evidence that inflation pressures have abated somewhat. Housing starts fell 14.3% to 1.41 mln (consensus 1.60 mln), the lowest rate in 10 years, while building permits fell 2.8% to 1.57 mln (consensus 1.59 mln). Bonds have strengthened in response as the 10-year note is now up 10 ticks to yield 4.66%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Early indications are pointing to a slightly lower open for stocks. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.4% on average this week and Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer saying some analysts' sales forecasts for Vista are "overly aggressive" are contributing to the negative disposition. Updates on inflation at the wholesale level (e.g. PPI) and housing data hitting the wires at 8:30 ET are also responsible for the cautious underlying tone.

06:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.3.

06:16 am : FTSE...6427.00...-6.30...-0.1%. DAX...6955.15...-3.47...-0.1%.

06:16 am : Nikkei...17875.65...-21.58...-0.1%. Hang Seng...20567.91...+29.49...+0.1%.

[UpInArms]

31. "was much worse than anticipated"

seems to be the mantra about everything since shithead the younger took the wheel.

[54anickel]

34. That's how his residency should go down in the history books. Personally, I

figured it wasn't gonna be pretty - but back in Jan '01 I would have never guessed it would be this bad.

[AnneD]

45. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. UIA, can we toot our own horns for a minute and say 'I TOLD YOU SO'. I told you about the war with Iraq (even your old man told you so), I told you about the housing bubble/bust, I told you about the WMD, I told you about Valerie Plame, I told you about stolen elections, I told you about inflation, I told you about job loss. I told you about the ARM scam, etc, etc, etc........the list goes on.

The people on DU have been right on the money more times than not and folks on the SWT have been able to spot trends before they are a blip on the screen (sometimes we are so early that we look a bunch of nervous nellies-but we are not).

Here are some more thoughts for you. The push for ethanol will consume larger portions of the corn crop. Currently animal and livestock feed and the liquor and spirits take the bulk corn production. Look for higher prices in poultry, pork, alcoholic beverages. I have already mentioned that the weather is literally killing the cattle industry. Now here is the long term monkey wrench in the works....the changing global weather pattern due to global warming. Ethanol is great mind you...but do you want to put all your eggs in that one basket? I heard that they are trying to get farmers to grow hull-less winter rye to use for ethanol. It soaks up all the excess pesticides from the corn, is good for the soil and extends the resource for ethanol. That might be worth checking out for some of you folks.

Well I have to go to work. We are busy taking up suspicious PBJ sandwiches-don't want the kids to get sick.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Danascot]

51. Who could have predicted? ...

[Demeter]

67. Molly Ivins Did; God Rest Her Soul

But then, she went to high school with the cretin.

[Ghost Dog]

33. Record home price slump

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/15/real_estate/home_prices/index.htm?section=money_latest
Fourth-quarter report from National Association of Realtors shows largest price drop on record as markets with price declines now outpace those with gains.

February 15 2007: 6:46 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The slump in home prices was both deeper and more widespread than ever in the fourth quarter, according to a trade group report Thursday.

Prices slumped 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter a year earlier, according to the report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's the biggest year-over-year drop on record and follows a 1.0 percent year-over-year decline in the third quarter.

In addition, 73 metropolitan areas reported a decline in the fourth quarter, compared to a year earlier. That outpaced the 71 that saw a gain. It was both a record number and percentage of markets showing a decline in the group's quarterly report. Five markets saw prices unchanged.

That decline was a far more widespread than the third quarter, when only 45 markets reported drops and 102 saw gains, or the second quarter when only 26 saw a year-over-year slump in prices. The national median price was still showing a year-over-year gain in the second quarter.

The most recent median prices are down even more: 3.4 percent since hitting record highs in the second quarter. Almost three-quarters of the markets, reported on by the group, saw declines in median prices over the past six months, with eight reporting double-digit declines.

/...

[54anickel]

41. Home builders' confidence returns (Yesterday's headline)

Index rises to 40 in February, highest since last June
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-builders-index-rises-highest/story.aspx?guid=%7B4BE85B5D%2D50EC%2D45CC%2D863D%2D7EFC8E3357A3%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders are still pessimistic, but are growing much more confident in the housing market, according to a monthly survey released Thursday by the National Association of Home Builders.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 40 in February from 35 in January. It's the highest since June 2006. The index had fallen to a 15-year low of 30 in September. A year ago, the index was at 56. The index has been below 50 for 10 months.

In the 1989-92 housing slowdown, the index was below 50 for 36 consecutive months; it took 18 months for the index to go from 40 to 50

A reading of 50 would indicate builder sentiment is equally divided between those who view the market as good and those who see it as bad.

About 40% of builders are confident about the market, the index shows.

"This improvement in the NAHB is consistent with further improvements in housing starts," wrote Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros., in a note to clients.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Manufacturing starts to slow along with earnings

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/351

Recent economic data along with corporate results have signaled that economic activity was more robust in December than previously reported, but has waned since the beginning of the year. One of the first indications of this dynamic was the January employment report. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that 111,000 jobs were created in January. While this was lower than the 150,000 economists were forecasting, the revisions to the previous months totaled 99,000 additional jobs. Of the 111,000 new jobs in January, there were 22,000 added in construction, which was the strongest monthly gain since March 2006. This was likely due to the warmer weather at the beginning of January. There were only 104,000 service sector jobs added last month, which was the smallest gain since April last year.

On Thursday, The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production dropped 0.5% in January, and increased only 2.6% over the past year. This was the largest monthly decline since September 2005 and the weakest year-over-year growth since October 2005. Production of motor vehicles continued to be the largest drag in the manufacturing sector. Auto production was down 6.0% from December and off 7.6% since last year.

Another sign that the manufacturing sector has experienced a slowdown last month was the announcement from Parker Hannifin that its January orders increased 1%. Similar to reports from other companies, international business remained much more robust then domestic activity. International orders increased 8% compared to a 4% drop in North American industrial orders. This followed a 2% drop last month and is the first time since July 2003 that orders were negative. Aerospace remains the one bright spot for domestic manufacturing; aerospace orders increased 4%.

Along with anecdotal reports from companies expressing that business has moderated, the ISM manufacturing survey has cast the manufacturing sector in the same light. After rebounding in December to 51.4, the index measuring activity in the manufacturing sector turned back below the 50 level, to 49.3. There was weakness reported in most of the questions asked. Production declined 2.8 points to 49.6 and new orders dropped 1.6 points to 50.3. Prices paid increased the most, up 5.5 points to 53.0.

Fourth quarter earnings have continued to run ahead of analysts’ estimates. Earnings for the S&P 500 are now expected to have increased 10.9% in the fourth quarter. Similar to some of the recent economic data, while the fourth quarter was robust, the first quarter has experienced a drop off. First quarter earnings growth expectations have dropped to 4.6%, almost half of the 8.7% growth forecasted just six weeks ago. The energy sector has experienced the largest drop in expected earnings growth, from 13% to -3%. Earnings for consumer discretionary stocks are expected to contract by 5%. Expectations for technology earnings have also dropped, from 17% growth at the beginning of the year to 12% currently, and that is also the sector that is expected to have the highest earnings growth as well. While estimates for financials first quarter earnings have remained constant (+8%), this is the primary reason earnings growth is expected to slow in the first quarter. Earnings for the financial sector increased 38% in the fourth quarter. Earnings growth for the materials sector has dropped a similar amount, from 38% to 9%. Financials account for 27% of all the earnings in the S&P 500, almost twice as important as the next largest sector, energy at 14%.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

46. The pain of U.S. autoworkers

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/16/opinion/edauto.php

American autoworkers are suffering through another round of layoffs, factory closings and buyouts. DaimlerChrysler has announced that it will cut 13,000 jobs in North America. Ford Motor and General Motors offered buyouts to nearly 200,000 hourly workers in 2006.

These losses stoke fears that America's manufacturing base is disappearing. With the loss of three million American factory jobs since the end of 2000 and the trade deficit at an all-time high, it's easy to see China's spectacular growth and assume that American factories are being gutted by foreign competition.

But global competition is not the whole cause for the car manufacturers' problems, just as the answers are not to be found in protectionism.

Many of the car companies' difficulties stem from bad decisions and uninspired car designs. Chrysler lost $1.48 billion last year and Ford lost $12.7 billion, the most in more than a century, while Toyota reported record profits and sales.

The plight of the workers who have lost their jobs has to be addressed, but the U.S. manufacturing sector is far more robust than the struggle of the carmakers suggests. According to the United Nations, the United States accounted for 21.2 percent of world manufacturing in 2000. As China surged ahead in recent years, the U.S. share of world manufacturing barely budged, falling to 21.1 percent by 2005, the most recent year available. U.S. factories produced a record $1.5 trillion in goods that year.

In part, that's because foreign companies have invested so much in factory capacity in America. In a recent report, a Democratic research organization, the Progressive Policy Institute, cited government figures showing that foreign manufacturers invest billions more in the United States than American manufacturers invest abroad.

/more...

[54anickel]

52. Sounds a bit like Greenspin's old song and dance about technology

causing the rise in productivity. Sure, it's part of the equation but so is outsourcing. I think a lot has to do with organized labor loosing so much ground. There are low-skilled mfg tasks that haven't been automated but have been outsourced. A lot of labor intensive smaller components that used to be made in-house are now outsourced either to a non-union shop or out of the country where the labor cost is cheaper.

Back in the pre-Raygun union-busting, pension-robbing days union workers got decent pay, pensions and job-security. Your time and talent was valued (even if it didn't require a degree) and you were fairly compensated for that time/talent. (Remember that old saying "Time is money" - don't hear that much anymore.) :shrug: Higher skilled workers got a bit more usually based on "job-points" but the base pay was the same - everyone's time was equally valued.

The point the Progressive Policy Institute was trying to make was that workers are rightful anxious about their jobs and future security. Their answer is some sort of social contract, though I don't completely agree with that as it still lets corporations off the hook - it still smells like fascism-creep to me. A pawning off of corporate responsibility to society. They also mention a "reshaped labor movement", but don't give any details. I believe it needs to be a combination of the two (that's what we used to have) and a revisit to all of those trade agreements to make sure they are fair and raise all boats. What we have now simply guarantees labor competing in a race to the bottom. JMHO


http://www.ppionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm?knlgAreaID=108&subsecid=900003&contentid=254195

American Manufacturing Is Not Dying

snip>

But the strength of American industry does not mean workers are wrong to worry. ("The fact that Lou Dobbs is wrong does not mean his ideological opposites at The Wall Street Journal are right.") American factories are reviving, at least in part, because they are meeting low-cost competition from abroad by substituting robots and computers for workers. Thus they now make more with 14.1 million human employees than they did with 17.2 million in 2001. A 3 million worker shift would be traumatic at any time, and is all the more so as the Internet brings a similar evolution to many services industries. And though many countries are making the same transition -- factory employment is down not only in the United States but in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, China, India, Japan, and Australia -- the shift is exceptionally painful here, where job loss can mean not only unemployment but lost health insurance, pensions, and ability to pay for mortgages and college tuition. Altogether, the paper argues, American workers have good reason for anxiety, and while Congress ought to turn down proposals for new trade barriers (lowers growth and living standards, makes businesses less competitive) it should develop a "new social contract," which blends new domestic policies with a reshaped labor movement to provide stronger support for workers and their families as industry changes.

[Eugene]

29. Wholesale Prices Off 0.6 Percent in Jan.

Wholesale Prices Off 0.6 Percent in Jan.

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON Feb 16, 2007 (AP)— Wholesale prices fell in January by the largest amount
in three months amid retreating energy prices while new home construction plunged
to the lowest level in nearly 10 years.

The Labor Department reported Friday that wholesale inflation declined 0.6 percent
last month, the largest drop since a 1.8 percent fall in October.

The improvement came from a 4.6 percent drop in energy costs, reflecting lower prices
for gasoline, natural gas and home heating oil. But even outside of the volatile energy
and food categories, inflation pressures were well contained, rising by a modest 0.2
percent.

-snip-

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2880755

[UpInArms]

30. 9:43 EST numbers and blather

Dow 12,757.40 7.61 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,488.10 9.00 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,453.71 3.10 (0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.686% 0.02

NYSE Volume 274,636,000
Nasdaq Volume 210,630,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Still shaping up for stocks to stumble out of the gate. Since this morning's economic data isn't going to change inflation expectations, the reports have failed to provide enough of a spark to curb the temptation to take some profits ahead of the weekend following such outsized gains enjoyed this week.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.3. Futures trade holds relatively steady following mixed economic data, still suggesting a lower start for the cash market. Total PPI fell 0.6% (consensus -0.6%) in January, due to a drop in energy prices. The more closely watched core rate rose 0.2%, matching economists' forecasts and the same moderate 0.2% pace in December.

That leaves the year/year rate at 1.8% and provides further evidence that inflation pressures have abated somewhat. Housing starts fell 14.3% to 1.41 mln (consensus 1.60 mln), the lowest rate in 10 years, while building permits fell 2.8% to 1.57 mln (consensus 1.59 mln). Bonds have strengthened in response as the 10-year note is now up 10 ticks to yield 4.66%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Early indications are pointing to a slightly lower open for stocks. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.4% on average this week and Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer saying some analysts' sales forecasts for Vista are "overly aggressive" are contributing to the negative disposition. Updates on inflation at the wholesale level (e.g. PPI) and housing data hitting the wires at 8:30 ET are also responsible for the cautious underlying tone.

[Ghost Dog]

35. Dow, Nasdaq tumble in early trading

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070216/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=A0WTUcDIw9VFV3IBmACs0NUE

NEW YORK - Wall Street slipped Friday as a plunge in new housing starts and a sales warning from Microsoft Corp. prompted investors to sell ahead of a holiday weekend.

Investors remained cautious after economic data released before the market opened showed a bigger-than-expected drop in the construction of new homes. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell in January by the largest amount in three months amid retreating energy prices.

Technology stocks were weaker after Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said late Thursday that Wall Street's revenue forecasts for the Vista operating system were "overly aggressive." The stock, trading just off its 52-week high, fell 2 percent in early trading.

...

In the first hour of trading, the Dow fell 11.30, or 0.09 percent, to 12,753.71.

Broader stock indicators edged lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 3.67, or 0.25 percent, to 1,453.14, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 10.36, or 0.41 percent, to 2,486.74.

Bonds rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.69 percent from 4.71 percent late Thursday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

...

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies declined 1.39, or 0.17 percent, to 814.04.

/...

[54anickel]

32. Imbalance and Privilege: Hedge Fund America

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/350

There are some strange facts about the asset and trade positions of the US economy in our globalizing world. The US runs massive and growing trade deficits, is borrowing at a clip that would arouse the suspicions of a casino pit boss, and has been selling her assets to anyone who will buy. In the last 24 months the US balance on goods and services comes in just shy of -$1.5 trillion. Across the same period we have sunk further into debt to the rest of the world.

For 2006, exports of $1,437.8 billion and imports of $2,201.4 billion resulted in a
goods and services deficit of $763.6 billion, $46.9 billion more than the 2005 deficit of $716.7 billion. For goods, exports were $1,023.7 billion and imports were $1,859.8 billion, resulting in a goods deficit of $836.1 billion, $53.3 billion more than the 2005 deficit of $782.7 billion.



As a result of all that short fall we have been selling assets and borrowing. The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) is the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) broadest measure of US owned foreign assets less foreign owned US assets. The chart above uses data from line 2 of the BEA data on market valuation of US NIIP in millions of dollars taken annually 1982-2005. As the chart and its linear trend line show, there has been a dramatic and sustained deterioration in the US NIIP over the last several decades. Between 1986 and 1988 America transformed herself from creditor to the world to debtor extraordinaire. We have never looked back, nor have we been forced to.

We have enjoyed positive net income from our increasingly larger negative total holding of foreign assets. This has partially insulated us from instability, Dollar plunges and rising interest rates. Declines in our currency get help from those most hurt- foreign owners of US assets. As Greenbacks fall we increase our positive income stream because the value of our assets rises and the value of our liabilities falls. Our imports are linked closely to or pegged to the dollar and our export markets are less so. Thus, falling dollars impose massive cost on asset holders and trading partners, reducing the regularity and severity of episodes. At least that has been true thus far. Spiking interest rates and falling Dollars have neither regularly nor, painfully recurred. There has been no forced rebalancing as economic theory suggests. Herein lays the source of much trouble and many sound forecasts gone awry.

more...


Ronald Reagan - The Bonzo Years
http://www.quickchange.com/reagan/1981.html

snip>

9/15/81
President Reagan says he is "as committed today as on the first day I took office to balancing the budget." (see 10/23/81)

snip>

10/23/81
The national debt hits $1 trillion.

11/10/81
Atlantic Monthly publishes William Greider's article "The Education of David Stockman", in which the Budget Director: · Admits "None of us really understands what's going on with all these numbers" · Acknowledges that supply-side economics "was always a Trojan horse to bring down the top rate" · Says of the Reagan tax bill "Do you realize the greed that came to the forefront? The hogs were really feeding." President Reagan is unaware of the article until brought to his attention at his fifth press conference by Leslie Stahl.

snip>

11/23/81
President Reagan vetoes a stopgap spending bill, thus forcing the federal government - for the first time in history - to temporarily shut down. Says House Speaker Tip O'Neill, "He knows less about the budget than any president in my lifetime. He can't even carry on a conversation about the budget. It's an absolute and utter disgrace."



http://www.quickchange.com/reagan/1982.html

snip>

1/19/82
At his seventh press conference, President Reagan:
· Claims there are "a million more working than there were in 1980," though statistics show that 100,000 fewer people are employed. (see 2/24/82)
· Contends his attempt to grant tax-exempt status to segregated schools was to correct "a procedure that we thought had no basis in law," though the Supreme Court had clearly upheld a ruling barring such exemptions a decade earlier.
· Claims he has received a letter from Pope John Paul II in which he "approves what we've done so far" regarding U.S. Sanctions against the USSR, though the sanctions were not mentioned in the papal message.
· Responds to a question about the 17% black unemployment rate by pointing out that "in this time of great unemployment," Sunday's paper had "24 full pages of ... employers looking for employees," though most of the jobs available - computer operator, or cellular immunologist - require special training, for which his administration has cut funds by over 30%.
· Misstates facts about California's abortion law and an Arizona program to aid the elderly (see 2/24/82)
· Responds to a question about private charity by observing, "I also happen to be someone who believes in tithing - the giving of a tenth," though his latest tax returns show charitable contributions amounting to 1.4%. (see 2/24/82)

2/9/82
George Bush denies that he ever used the phrase "voodoo economics" and challenges "anybody to find it." NBC's Ken Bode promptly broadcasts the 1980 tape.

2/16/82
"She really just got tired of people misinterpreting what she was doing." - Aide telling the public that Nancy Reagan will no longer accept free clothing "on loan" from top designers.

2/24/82
Addressing the Voice of America's 40th Birthday celebration, President Reagan reminisces about making up exciting details while announcing baseball games from wire copy. "Now, I submit to you that I told the truth," he says of his enhanced version of a routine shortstop-to-first ground out. "i don't know whether he really ran over toward second base and made a one-hand stab or whether he just squatted down and took the ball when it came to him. But the truth got there and, in other words, it can be attractively packages." No one questions his apparent premise that embellishing the truth does not compromise it. (see 3/24/82)

2/27/82
The Congressional Budget Office finds that taxpayers earning under $10,000 lost an average of $240 from last year's tax cuts, while those earning over $80,000 gained an average of $15,130.

[54anickel]

47. Selling our Cows to Buy Milk

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff021607.html

On Tuesday of this week we learned that in 2006 Americans racked up a record $763.6 Billion trade deficit, and that two Australian mining firms, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, were each contemplating $40 billion bids for U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa. Not only did Wall Street and the media fail to grasp the negative significance of each story, but they also failed to see the strong connection between the two.

By running huge trade deficits, Americans are literally selling cows to buy milk. Alcoa is just the latest heifer headed for the auction block. In other words, because we do not trade enough domestically manufactured consumer goods for those we import, we are making up the difference with our assets instead. To the extent that foreigners are tiring of buying more Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, they are casting their eyes on industrial assets. Last year's trade deficit alone provided foreigners with enough dollars to buy twenty Alcoa's.

Many Americas do not see the downside of such a transfer. In fact, they might even see it as a benefit, as shares of Alcoa would likely rise sharply. However, in exchange for losing one of the world's preeminent mining companies to Australia, Americans would only be compensated by the return of their paper dollars. Future profits that would have been earned by Americans will now be earned by Australians instead.

snip>

It is astounding that so many fail to see the sale as further proof of America's economic decline. In his testimony yesterday before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke showed little concern for the trade deficit and its implications for the American economy. If our economy really was as strong as Mr. Bernanke believes, Alcoa would be buying foreign companies, not the reverse. Nations with strong economies use their trade surpluses to acquire choice foreign assets. Nations with weak economies are forced by their trade deficits to surrender those assets.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

72. Yes. This now looks like a firm trend...

... and an intelligent way of putting those otherwise potentially depreciating dollar surpluses to work.

[54anickel]

39. Auditors question billions in contractor bills (Hellaburnin)

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4558311.html

WASHINGTON — Pentagon auditors have challenged $10 billion worth of contractors' costs racked up since the start of the war in Iraq, including $2.7 billion from Houston's Halliburton Co.

William Reed, director of the Defense Contract Audit Agency, told a House panel Thursday his agency had overseen $52 billion worth of Iraq-related contracts from March 2003 through Sept. 30, 2006.

And after reviewing those costs, Reed's auditors had urged the Pentagon, State Department and other agencies to reject $4.9 billion in costs and identified another $5.1 billion that lacked adequate documentation.

Many of these billing disputes were ultimately resolved. But they indicate the amount of difficulty the Pentagon is having controlling the sprawling network of contractors operating in Iraq.

"There's no accountability," said David Walker, the Government Accountability Office's comptroller general.

snip>

But that's not to say the Pentagon will ultimately deny that many KBR charges. Auditors act only in an advisory capacity. And in most billing disputes, the Defense Department ultimately sides with the contractor, once the necessary paperwork is provided and costs are explained. :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

40. (Corporate) Default rates to rise amid high debt, S&P says

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL1692569520070216

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Global default rates are set to rise in the coming months as companies struggle to pay the interest on their debt in an environment of rising interest rates, credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's said.

The global speculative-grade default rate rose to 1.18 percent at the end of January from 1.09 percent at the end of last year, Standard & Poor's said on Friday.

In the United States, home of 21 of the 29 companies around the world that failed to pay their debt last year, the speculative grade default rate is expected to rise to 2.33 percent in the last quarter of this year, the agency said.

"Rising leverage and the resulting credit deterioration will result in an eventual rise in defaults, even though a stronger-than-anticipated macroeconomic backdrop tempers any immediate concern," Standard & Poor's said.

<snip>

More liquidity from investors, institutions and hedge funds has helped companies become more leveraged. In the United States and in Europe, which has a smaller high-yield debt market, credit quality has worsened since 2003, the agency said.

...more...

[54anickel]

44. S&P to speed mortgage warnings

The ratings company, responding to rising delinquencies, will alert bond investors before foreclosures occur.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-subprime16feb16,1,4876160.story?coll=la-headlines-business

In another sign of growing concern about mortgages made to high-risk borrowers, Standard & Poor's said it would no longer wait for homes to be foreclosed on and sold at a loss before alerting investors in mortgage-backed bonds that it expects to lower ratings on the bonds.

The ratings company now will consider issuing downgrade warnings based on the amount of loans that are delinquent, in foreclosure proceedings or already backed by seized property, Robert Pollsen, an analyst at the New York-based firm, said during a conference call with investors Thursday.

S&P will assume that none of the borrowers more than 90 days late will resume paying their mortgages, he said.

The firm is reacting to rising delinquencies and defaults on the riskiest types of home loans made in 2006. Many of those loans were packaged and sold to investors via mortgage-backed securities that pass interest through to the investors.

S&P said Wednesday that it was considering downgrades on 18 low-rated bonds from 11 securitizations of mortgages last year amid early loan problems.

"It is a watershed event" because it means S&P is now actively considering downgrading bonds within their first year, said Daniel Nigro, a portfolio manager at Dynamic Credit Partners, a manager of about $6 billion in hedge funds and collateralized debt obligations. "We welcome them being more open" about their methods.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Find the Cost of Freedom

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini021607.html

Back in the days when I had long hair, or any hair for that matter, I would go to concerts whenever possible. One of my favorite groups was a trio known as Crosby, Stills, & Nash. The first time I saw them together was right after Woodstock, and I've probably seen them a dozen times since then. In the early 70's, they would close their gigs with a song entitled "Find the Cost of Freedom". For lack of a better word, it was a dirge and it was aimed at the war in Viet Nam. This and other songs raised the consciousness of the nation's youth and served to unite them against what they perceived to be as an unjust war. Music was just one of the tools they used to bring it to an end<1>. They organized, mobilized, and took to the streets. Usually the protests were peaceful; sometimes they weren't. Every once in a great while something would go terribly wrong and people would die. An image of Ohio National Guardsmen standing on a hill, firing live ammunition down on unarmed teenagers, comes to mind. In that particular case the cost was four dead and fourteen wounded. Compared to the fifty-five thousand young Americans that died in Viet Nam, it probably seemed like a small price to pay. After years of protest and civil unrest, America's youth prevailed and the US withdrew from Southeast Asia. The world didn't come to an end, the communists didn't take over Asia, and the Chinese never invaded American shores. All that really happened was that the United States extricated itself from an otherwise hopeless situation. After that it was business as usual.

Now it's thirty-five years later and it looks like the lessons of the late 60's and early 70's didn't go too far. In its infinite wisdom, the American leadership, Republicans and democrats alike, have gotten themselves involved in not one, but two wars in the Middle East. To make matters worse, they are now eyeing a third possible front. There are other considerations as well. The Viet Nam war was a war of political ideologies: Capitalism versus Communism. Also in 1964, the United States seemed to have a collective "conscience" for lack of a better word. It was only twenty years after WWII and ten years after Korea, parents were all too familiar with the sacrifices associated with war, and they weren't too keen on putting their children on that alter. Finally, there was a draft up until 1972. Think of it as a lottery where you don't want your number called. I remember it well as I was drafted one month before the whole system was scrapped for what we now refer to as an "all-volunteer army". I must say that I wasn't too happy about it. Today's war is quite different. Whether you want to admit it or not, it is a war of religion. The Koran versus the Bible!

Look's look at this concept of a national conscience; if it still exists, it's been numbed by way too many years of cable TV. I truly doubt that it does exist. We as Americans have been so far removed from any real suffering, for such a long time, that we actually believe it can't happen. Better yet politicians get elected by telling us it can't happen. The Great depression and WWII exist only in history books and any survivors are few and far between. Back in the 40's and 50's, people used to meet reality head on. Not anymore! Now we get it by e-mail or cable TV. Everything has a "filter" or is on a "need to know" basis. What I've never been able to figure out is what give someone else the right to decide what I need to know?

snip>

Somewhere along the line, Americans will develop and awareness with respect to the cost, danger, and hopelessness of the situation. As they used to say in the old days, they'll come out of the ether. That's when things will get interesting. As I mentioned previously, the present generation of Americans have never really suffered and they won't take too kindly to the concept. Politicians promised them a rose garden, not a manure pit.

Finally, I would like to discuss the human cost. If you watch CNN it's almost treated as a footnote. "Today five US soldiers were killed when their convoy was ambushed. In other news, the Dow made a new high today." That's about the extent of it. Don't give the public any more than you have to. Well, to date three thousand Americans have died. That's three thousand lives unlived and three thousand sets of grieving families. If I can make a few unrealistic assumptions regarding these young people who sacrificed their lives, that they were all single and male, then there are three thousand young widows before their time floating around out there. Assuming each couple would have had two children, we are talking about six thousand never to be born babies. Now you have nine thousand individuals who ceased to exist, or never existed, and any one of them might have made a real contribution to society. The "I've discovered the vaccine for polio" type of contribution, but will never know because they were never allowed to get that far. These young men will never be husbands, fathers, grandfathers, businessmen, teachers, or scientists. The best they can hope for is to be some faceless name on some wall someplace that all but a hand full of Americans will never recognize. That seems to be an awful high price to pay to maintain a lie.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

78. Yes, indeed, "those were the days".

I was born in 1954, and was just old (and free) enough to enjoy the "summer of love" and the couple of exciting years that followed, back home there in the then-booming (and swinging) UK.

Where's that spirit today? My (relatively close, I think, although still remote) understanding of the USA leads me still, in spite of al the evidence, perhaps, to the contrary, to endorse this sentiment from the OP: "Somewhere along the line, Americans will develop and awareness with respect to the cost, danger, and hopelessness of the situation. As they used to say in the old days, they'll come out of the ether. That's when things will get interesting."

Or, to quote Leonard Cohen, "Then we'll come from the shadows."

http://www.tsrocks.com/l/leonard_cohen_texts/the_partisan.html
The Partisan lyrics by LEONARD COHEN

When they poured across the border
I was cautioned to surrender,
this I could not do;
I took my gun and vanished.

I have changed my name so often,
I have lost my wife and children
but I have many friends,
and some of them are with me.

An old woman gave us shelter,
kept us hidden in the garret,
then the soldiers came;
she died without a whisper.

There were three of us this morning
I'm the only one this evening
but I must go on;
the frontiers are my prison.

Oh, the wind, the wind is blowing,
through the graves the wind is blowing,
freedom soon will come;
then we'll come from the shadows.

Les Allemands étaient chez moi, (The Germans were at my home)
ils me dirent, "Signe toi," (They said, "Sign yourself,")
mais je n'ai pas peur; (But I am not afraid)
j'ai repris mon arme. (I have retaken my weapon.)

J'ai changé cent fois de nom, (I have changed names a hundred times)
j'ai perdu femme et enfants (I have lost wife and children)
mais j'ai tant d'amis; (But I have so many friends)
j'ai la France entière. (I have all of France)

Un vieil homme dans un grenier (An old man, in an attic)
pour la nuit nous a cache', (Hid us for the night)
les Allemands l'ont pris; (The Germans captured him)
il est mort sans surprise. (He died without surprise.)

Oh, the wind, the wind is blowing,
through the graves the wind is blowing,
freedom soon will come;
then we'll come from the shadows.

[54anickel]

53. 12:26 lunch break check

Dow 12,755.31 9.70 (0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,491.32 5.78 (0.23%)
S&P 500 1,453.58 3.23 (0.22%)
10-yr Bond 4.6900% 0.0160
30-yr Bond 4.7890% 0.0150
NYSE Volume 1,195,274,000
Nasdaq Volume 999,767,000

12:00 pm : With the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.4% on average this week, it's not surprising to see stocks running into some profit-taking pressure going into the weekend.

Among the biggest headlines prompting investors to take some money off the table is Microsoft (MSFT 28.79 -0.67). The Dow component and tech bellwether plunging more than 2%, after CEO Steve Ballmer said some analysts' revenue forecasts for Vista are "overly aggressive," is removing some notable leadership on all three indices.

It is worth noting, though, that market losses are modest at best as Microsoft's decline accounts for nearly half of the Dow's pullback from record levels.

Some mixed economic data are also stalling follow-through buying efforts. Total PPI and core PPI merely matching economists' forecasts, which won't alter inflation expectations, has failed to provide investors with overwhelming evidence that pricing pressures are abating. More notably, with Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterating some signs of stabilization in housing this week, an exaggerated 14.1% decline in January housing starts to 10-year lows, aberration or not, has not provided further evidence that the struggling housing sector has bottomed.

Separately, General Motors (GM 36.34 -0.10) initially plunging 2% within the last 30 minutes, following reports it is in talk to buy the entire Chrysler Group (DCX 74.22 +3.97), has also acted as an overhang even though the stock has since recovered most of its recent pullback. DJ30 -12.90 NASDAQ -6.59 SP500 -3.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1575/1263/870 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1914/1162/590 mln

11:30 am : Recent recovery efforts run out of steam as the Energy sector almost as quickly reversing course removes what little leadership the bulls have seen all morning. In fact, the only sector currently in positive territory is Consumer Staples; but that also speaks to the market's defensive mindset as industry groups like Agricultural Products -- today's best performing S&P industry group -- also act as safe havens during times of economic uncertainty.

Personal Products also ranks among today's top performers, following an analyst upgrade on Avon Products (AVP 39.22 +0.16), while Packaged Foods is getting some assistance from Campbell Soup (CPB 42.10 +2.52). The latter is soaring more than 6% to a seven-year high after topping Wall Street forecasts and raised its full-year earnings guidance. DJ30 -15.82 NASDAQ -7.21 SP500 -3.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1578/1214/754 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1863/1168/512 mln

11:00 am : The major averages are paring their losses, but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. Not to mention, the market's modest rebound is due in part to the Energy sector turning positive in sympathy with oil prices hitting fresh session highs, which is a bearish signal for stocks.

Crude for March delivery is currently up 1.2% near $58.70/bbl amid growing concerns that militant attacks in Nigeria will disrupt supplies. However, the commodity is still down nearly 2% this week after briefly eclipsing the $60/bbl level last Friday.DJ30 -8.89 NASDAQ -5.99 SP500 -2.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1702/1048/600 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1958/1048/412 mln

10:30 am : Indices continue to languish near morning lows as investors use a sharper than expected decline in consumer sentiment as another excuse to sideline the bulls. At the top of the hour, a survey compiled by the University of Michigan checking in at a lower than expected preliminary read of 93.3 (consensus 96.5) has shown that sentiment eroded this month.

Even though there isn't as strong a correlation between sentiment and consumer spending as some might think, the data have done little to curb early nervousness after such a huge run-up in stocks of late. DJ30 -15.53 NASDAQ -10.30 SP500 -4.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1688/960/414 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1952/934/300 mln

[54anickel]

54. World's First Commercial Quantum Computer Demonstrated

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=6102

Canadian company D-Wave shows off technology that promises to give quantum computing capabilities to mainstream industry

Canadian firm D-Wave Systems unveiled and demonstrated today what it calls “the world's first commercially viable quantum computer.” Company officials announced the technology at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California in a demonstration intended to show how the machine can run commercial applications and is better suited to the types of problems that have stymied conventional (digital) computers.

The demonstration of the technology was held at the Computer History Museum, but the actual hardware remained in Burnaby, BC where it was being chilled down to 5 millikelvin, or minus 273.145 degrees Celsius (colder than interstellar space), with liquid helium.

Quantum computers rely on quantum mechanics, the rules that underlie the behavior of all matter and energy, to accelerate computation. It has been known for some time that once some simple features of quantum mechanics are harnessed, machines will be built capable of outperforming any conceivable conventional supercomputer. But D-Wave explains that its new device is intended as a complement to conventional computers, to augment existing machines and their market, not to replace them.

snip>

As an example, consider the modeling of a nanosized structure, such as a drug molecule, using non-quantum computers. Solving the Schrodinger Equation more than doubles in difficulty for every electron in the molecule. This is called exponential scaling, and prohibits solution of the Schrodinger Equation for systems greater than about 30 electrons. A single caffeine molecule has more than 100 electrons, making it roughly 10^44 times harder to solve than a 30-electron system, which itself makes even high-end supercomputers choke.

Quantum computers are capable of solving the Schrodinger Equation with linear scaling exponentially faster and with exponentially less hardware than conventional computers. For a quantum computers, the difficulty in solving the Schrodinger Equation increases by a small, fixed amount for every electron in a system. Even very primitive quantum computers will be able to outperform supercomputers in simulating nature.

more...

[54anickel]

57. DP World's US assets sale hits snag

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Shipping/10104649.html


Dubai: DP World's plans to sell its assets in the United States are in jeopardy after a US port authority attached new conditions and fees to the deal.

According to DP World, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey asked for a "departure fee" from the world's third biggest port operator, a move the company says could derail the deal.

"We are disappointed with their approach. If they persist, it could be a deal breaker," chief executive officer Mohammad Sharaf told Gulf News.

DP World announced a deal in December that it would sell the US business to AIG Global Investment Group, the investment unit of the insurance firm American International Group (AIG).

US news outlets have reported that the port authority is asking for tens of millions of dollars before a lease-transfer deal with AIG is approved.

snip>

DP World acquired container terminal operations at the ports of New York-New Jersey, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Miami, Tampa and New Orleans as part of the $6.8-billion purchase of British port group Peninsular and Oriental Steam Navigation Company (P&O) last year.

snip>

Although the Bush administration had approved the US part of the P&O takeover, several Congressmen had opposed DP World's acquisition of P&O operations on national security grounds.

The controversy raised concern among potential Arab investors about putting their in the US. It has also cast a shadow over the ongoing free trade talks between the US and the UAE.

more...

[54anickel]

58. Dougan Leads Derivative Traders to First Top Bank Job (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aZGeK6V6v8LQ&refer=europe

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Brady Dougan, promoted to chief executive officer of Credit Suisse Group yesterday, will be the first derivatives trader to run one of the world's biggest banks. There may be more on the way.

William Winters, who helped design some of the first credit- default swaps, is co-chief of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s investment- banking unit. Anshu Jain used derivatives to make Deutsche Bank AG the world's second-biggest debt trader and now oversees more than half the company's revenue. Derivatives specialists run investment banking at BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA.

Dougan's rise at Switzerland's second-biggest bank reflects the transformation of derivatives into the fastest-growing financial market. Derivatives -- instruments whose value is based on underlying stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and commodities -- account for $370 trillion in over-the-counter trading, 10 times more than in 1998. Deutsche Bank's revenue from credit derivatives alone was at least $3 billion in the first half of 2006, more than double its investment-banking fees.

``Those who make the money are the ones who have the power to be in charge,'' Scott Moeller, a finance professor at City University's Cass Business School in London and former banker at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, said in an interview.

snip>

Derivatives, first developed in the early 1980s to help companies and investors hedge against risks such as changes in interest rates, revolutionized finance by giving banks a means to set aside less money to cushion potential losses.

``The birth of derivatives gave the industry a mechanism to better manage financial risk,'' said Mark Brickell, a derivatives pioneer who spent 25 years at JPMorgan and now runs Blackbird Holdings Inc., an electronic trading firm in New York. ``Once they understood how to manage the risk, they then could commit more capital to their trading activities, of which derivatives is a large chunk.''

Surging Swaps

Salomon Brothers did the first public derivatives deal in 1981, helping International Business Machines Corp. and the World Bank exchange debt payments denominated in Swiss francs and German marks for dollar obligations.

more...

Heh-heh, remember Salomon Brothers?

[Ghost Dog]

59. Persian Gulf States Plan Weapons Buying Binge

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2733629

Deep fears about the war in Iraq and growing tension between the United States and Iran are driving the wealthy oil states of the Persian Gulf to go on shopping sprees for helicopters, ships and tanks, officials say.

Some 900 weapons makers and security firms from around the world, including the U.S. and Russia, will compete for those military buys at the IDEX military show that opens Sunday in Abu Dhabi. At stake are contracts predicted to soar past the $2 billion signed at the last such show two years ago.

"The shopping lists are directly correlated to the threat perception," said military analyst Mustafa Alani of the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. "For the past 15 years, these countries didn't invest a lot in rearming."

But now they're rushing to upgrade.

The biggest fear in the region is that Iraq will collapse into civil war and its violence will spill into nearby Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Alani said.

/...

[54anickel]

62. Just like the consumer electronics show - cool! I wanna go!!!

http://www.idexuae.com/english/index.aspx

[Ghost Dog]

71. .

[54anickel]

81. Damn! Brain fart - I know the face, sort of remember the sit-com. Help me

out GD or this will bug me all night!!!! :freak:

[AnneD]

85. The Phil Silvers Show...

also referred to as Sgt Bilko.

[Ghost Dog]

86. Sgt. Bilko (Phil Silvers)

http://www.museum.tv/archives/etv/P/htmlP/philsilvers/philsilvers.htm

(I'm old enough to remember those early influences over here from US TV.) :silly: :hippie:

(And, don't get me on the subject of one Lucille Ball (Arnez)...).

ed. --> You got it, AnneD. Essentially, Military logistics scams. A sort of early (and less bitter) Catch22.

[54anickel]

87. Thanks! I kept thinking Bing-something, but that was McHale's navy

then I just got stuck on Sargeant Binging, Bingington, Bing....Oh wait, he was a captain! Binghamton aka old leadbottom!!! After that I was stuck.

[AnneD]

100. McHale's navy

Capt. Binghamton aka 'old Leadbottom'. Tim Conway was great as Ensign Parker. Ghost Dog and I share the same year. I love some of those early show, and yes Ghost Dog, you have some splaining to do.

If I remember right Sgt Bilko was always stealing, gambling and scamming and trying to cover it up....hmmmm, maybe that show had a more profound impact on some folks of our generation than I thought.

[54anickel]

63. Reports: GM in talks to buy Chrysler Group

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/16/news/companies/chrysler_gm/index.htm?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors is in talks to buy DaimlerChrysler AG's struggling Chrysler group in its entirety, according to several reports.

According to the reports, sources in Germany and the United States said high-level talks between GM (up $0.16 to $36.60, Charts) and DaimlerChrysler (up $2.50 to $72.75, Charts) executives are taking place.

Chrysler Group announced Wednesday it would be cutting about 13,000 workers over the next three years as a part of a restructuring plan. Reports also said its German parent was considering selling or spinning off the unit.

Talks of an alliance between GM and DaimlerChrysler was first reported last week in Germany's Manager-Magazin.

The German publication said DaimlerChrysler Chairman Dieter Zetsche had met with GM Chairman Rick Wagoner about a possible sale of Chrysler to the automaker.

more...

No way!!! What the hell are they going to pay with??? :crazy:

[Demeter]

69. Selling It For Spare Parts, Maybe?

Lay off a lot of people, deplete some more tax bases, and shrink the competition.

When does the anti-monopoly law kick in, or is that a quaint, non-functional historical footnote nowadays?

[citizen snips]

73. AMR Shares Up on Takeover Target Report

DALLAS (AP) -- Shares of American Airlines' parent rose in Friday morning trading after a media report that the company was the target of a private buyout bid by investors including Goldman Sachs and British Airways PLC.

Analysts discounted the report that investors including British Airways PLC and Goldman Sachs were trying to buy AMR Corp., noting the legal barriers to a foreign carrier owning a U.S. airline.

Business Week reported in its Feb. 26 issue that the investor group is planning to bid between $46 and $52 per share -- or $9.8 billion to $11.1 billion -- for AMR. That would represent a healthy premium over AMR's closing price Thursday of $38.05.

The magazine article, based on unnamed sources, said a bid is not certain.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/amr_shares.html?.v=5

[citizen snips]

74. Sector Snap: Airline Stocks Mixed

NEW YORK (AP) -- Airline stocks were mixed Friday, as crude oil prices rose and analysts expressed skepticism over rumored buyout interest in American Airlines' parent.

The Amex Airline Index was down a fraction, split between five gainers and six decliners.

A barrel of oil rose $1.09 to $59.08 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Jet fuel is one of an airline's top costs.

The index's biggest percentage decliner was JetBlue Airways Corp., which fell 26 cents, or 2 percent, to $13.57 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/airlines_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

76. Wall Street Retreats After Housing Data

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street pulled back Friday as a plunge in new housing starts and a sales warning from Microsoft Corp. prompted light selling ahead of a holiday weekend.

Investors remained cautious after economic data released before the market opened showed a bigger-than-expected drop in the construction of new homes. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell in January by the largest amount in three months amid retreating energy prices.

Technology stocks were weaker after Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said late Thursday that Wall Street's revenue forecasts for the Vista operating system were "overly aggressive." The stock, trading just off its 52-week high, fell more than 2 percent.

The decline on Wall Street halts a three-day advance that sent the Dow Jones industrials up more than 200 points. The February rally has been driven by growing confidence that interest rates will hold steady as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke battles inflation and tries to ease the economy into a soft landing.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/wall_street.html?.v=23

[citizen snips]

77. Campbell Soup Among Wall Street's Movers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks that were moving substantially or trading heavily Friday on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market:

NYSE

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., down 52 cents at $24.89.

The tire maker reported a steep loss in the fourth quarter because of a costly strike at 16 factories.

Campbell Soup Co., up $2.32 at $41.90.

The soup maker raised its forecast for the year and reported an increase in fiscal second-quarter profits.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/wall_street_stocks.html?.v=3

[citizen snips]

79. Microsoft shares tumble on CEO comments

BOSTON (Reuters) -- Microsoft Corp. shares fell as much as 2.7 percent on Friday, their biggest drop in nine months, after Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said analysts' forecasts for fiscal 2008 revenue for Windows Vista were "overly aggressive."

Ballmer made the comment Thursday, two weeks after the world's largest software maker released the upgrade to its ubiquitous Windows operating system and predicted that consumers would move to Vista faster than they did to past Windows upgrades.

Microsoft (down $0.66 to $28.80, Charts) shares were down 2.4 percent in heavy Nasdaq trade after falling as much as 2.7 percent earlier in the session.

"It's probably some people saying this is not good news, let's take our money out," said McAdams Wright Ragen analyst Sid Parakh.

The Windows franchise is the centerpiece of Microsoft's business - the company makes more than 75 cents in operating profit for every dollar of sales.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/16/technology/microsoft_stock.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007021612

[citizen snips]

80. Motorola exec steps down, joins Dell

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Motorola Inc. said Friday that Ron Garriques, president of its Mobile Devices unit, has resigned effective immediately.

In a separate press release on Friday, Dell Inc. (up $0.17 to $24.55, Charts) said Garriques would join the company to head its newly created Global Consumer Organization.

Dell, the world's second-largest PC maker, said Garriques will report directly to Michael Dell, chairman and chief executive.

Motorola (up $0.15 to $19.39, Charts), the world's second-biggest mobile phone maker, said Garriques will be replaced for an interim period by co-heads, Ray Roman, senior vice president, global sales, and Terry Vega, senior vice president, global devices.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/16/technology/motorola_dell.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

[citizen snips]

82. Judge Approves Sale of Air America Radio

NEW YORK (AP) -- A federal bankruptcy judge on Friday approved the sale of the liberal talk radio network Air America Radio for $4.25 million to Stephen L. Green, founder of a New York real estate firm.

Green and his brother Mark Green -- the longtime liberal New York City politician and frequent guest on Air America -- plan to continue running the network.

In announcing his plans to buy the network in late January, Green said in a statement that he intended to make it "a successful business that returns a profit," stabilizing its finances, building up its programming lineup and forming partnerships with other distribution platforms beyond radio. Green doesn't own any other media outlets.

The approval of U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Robert Drain essentially transfers all the assets of Piquant LLC, parent company of the New York-based Air America, to a group including new and current investors.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/air_america_radio_bankruptcy.html?.v=7

[citizen snips]

89. Drug, biotech shares fall; Onyx stocks soars

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Drug and biotech stocks finished Friday's session in negative territory, but shares of Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. jumped to close up more than 12% after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

Late Thursday, the biopharmaceutical company (NasdaqGM:ONXX - News) said its quarterly net loss narrowed to $20.7 million, or 47 cents a share, from $38.4 million, or $1 a share, in the same period during 2005, as expenses on research and development dropped considerably. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a per-share loss of 62 cents.

Onyx shares rose $3.05 to close at $27.75. The stock almost doubled in value earlier in the week after Onyx and Bayer AG (NYSE:BAY - News) halted a Phase III clinical trial studying their drug Nexavar in patients with advanced liver cancer due to positive results.

Bayer shares fell 1.2% to end at $58.62.

Shares of Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK - News) ticked higher by 40 cents to close at $44.28 after the which said Friday that it filed to distribute HIV treatment Atripla in developing countries.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070216/115eec33ee604a2dabf2e6dbb9f83cc0.html?.v=3

[citizen snips]

90. Chrysler Stock Up on Report of GM Talks

DETROIT (AP) -- U.S. shares of DaimlerChrysler AG jumped more than 4 percent Friday -- setting a new 52-week high -- after a trade publication reported that General Motors Corp. is in talks to acquire the troubled Chrysler Group.

GM and Chrysler officials would not comment on the report by Automotive News, which attributed the story to people in Germany and the U.S. whom it did not identify.

Several industry analysts said the speculation drove DaimlerChrysler stock up. Its shares closed up $3.08, or 4.4 percent, to $73.33 on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier in the session, it set a new 52-week high of $74.53.

GM's shares slipped 10 cents to $36.34, after rising earlier to $36.83.

Spokesmen for both GM and Chrysler said they would not comment because so many rumors have surfaced since Wednesday, when DaimlerChrysler Chairman Dieter Zetsche said the automaker would not rule out possible sale

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/gm_chrysler_talks.html?.v=5

[citizen snips]

91. Dow Closes Up 3, Nasdaq Finishes Down 1

NEW YORK (AP) -- A larger-than-expected drop in housing starts gave Wall Street a mixed performance Friday, but the Dow Jones industrials had their third straight record close after spending much of the session in a decline that lacked conviction. The major indexes had their best week since mid-November.

Investors remained somewhat cautious after the Commerce Department said of construction of new homes and apartments sank 14.3 percent in January, the biggest drop in nearly 10 years. But there was upbeat economic news as well; wholesale prices fell in January by the largest amount in three months amid retreating energy prices.

Technology stocks were weaker after Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said late Thursday that Wall Street's revenue forecasts for the Vista operating system were "overly aggressive." The stock, trading just off its 52-week high, fell more than 2 percent.

Friday's advance gave the Dow its fourth straight gain. The market's February rally has been driven by growing confidence that interest rates will hold steady as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke battles inflation and tries to ease the economy into a soft landing.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/wall_street.html?.v=28

[citizen snips]

92. Grains, Soybeans Climb

CHICAGO (AP) -- Grain and soybean futures advanced Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat for March delivery rose 14 3/4 cents to $4.68 a bushel; March corn rose 9 1/2 cents to $4.17 a bushel; March oats rose 5 cents to $2.42 1/2 a bushel; March soybeans rose 8 1/4 cents to $7.67 a bushel.

Beef futures finished mixed and pork futures declined on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

April live cattle rose .15 cent to 96.55 cents a pound; March feeder cattle fell .28 cent to $1.0017 a pound; April lean hogs fell .20 cent to 68.50 cents a pound; March pork bellies fell 1.65 cent to $1.0305 a pound.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/board_of_trade.html?.v=3

[citizen snips]

93. Fidelity Profit Drops 11 Percent

BOSTON (AP) -- Fidelity Investments, the nation's largest mutual funds manager, said Friday its 2006 profit fell 11 percent from the previous year because of advertising costs and more employees.

Net income of nearly $1.2 billion was down close to $150 million compared with the prior year, the privately held company said in its annual report.

Fidelity's 2006 revenue rose 16 percent to nearly $12.9 billion -- a new high -- from $11.1 billion in 2005.

Fidelity's average assets under management last year totaled $1.3 trillion, up 14 percent from the prior year. The Boston-based company had nearly $3 trillion in administered assets, up 19 percent from the year before.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/earns_fidelity.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

94. Sector Snap: Online Travel

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Internet travel companies were mixed on Friday following strong earnings and what one analyst called "a cautious outlook" from Expedia Inc.

The company said Thursday its fourth-quarter profit more than doubled, beating Wall Street expectations. But Merrill Lynch analyst Justin Post said the company's guidance for single-digit full year growth in operating income before amortization (OIBA) reflects ongoing top-line pressure.

OIBA is Expedia's main internal metric for measuring business performance.

"After earnings misses in 1H06, a cautious outlook is probably the right approach, but indicates business model economics remain under pressure," the analyst wrote in a note to investors. Post kept his rating at "Neutral."

CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Keung downgraded Expedia to "Sector Perform" from "Sector Outperform," and said the company is facing challenges in the U.S.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/sector_snap_internet.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

95. Treasury Prices Rise on Economic Reports

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. Treasury bonds chalked up another day of gains Friday, with prices rising modestly on weaker-than-expected housing and consumer confidence.

At 5 p.m. EST, the 10-year Treasury note was up $1.25 per $1,000 in face value, or 4/32 point, from its level at 5 p.m. Thursday. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction, fell to 4.69 percent from 4.71 percent. Yields touched 4.66 percent, its lowest level since Jan. 10, during the session.

The 30-year bond rose 10/32 point. Its yield fell to 4.79 percent from 4.81 percent.

The 2-year note was unchanged, while its yield was also unchanged at 4.84 percent.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/bonds.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

96. Retail index is loser on session but higher on week

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks remained under selling pressure Friday, but a strong early start kept the sector's main measure in positive territory for the week.

The S&P Retail Index (Chicago Options:^RLX - News), the prime measure tracking the performance of retailers' stocks, gave up nearly 3 points to settle at 531.99. However, solid gains in previous sessions kept the index higher by 1.2% on the week.

Shares of Office Depot (NYSE:ODP - News), which have languished some 11% in the last month, were among the leading index percentage decliners, falling 1.3% to $35.65. Rival Staples Inc. (NasdaqGS:SPLS - News) was also in focus, dropping 1.5% to $26.85.

Shares of Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO - News) traded down 18 cents to $31.01, while Big Lots (NYSE:BIG - News) lost 1% to $26.41. Rival Dollar General (NYSE: DG - News) also saw its shares give up a tiny piece of ground, dipping a penny to $17.67.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070216/38cd3ff31ea14f7f8171d2b42f032e97.html?.v=3

[citizen snips]

97. Takeovers Off to Good Start in 2007

NEW YORK (AP) -- The rumors about a potential takeover of aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. this past week created an enthusiastic buzz on Wall Street that acquisitions this year will smash the $4 trillion record set in 2006.

Seven weeks into 2007, the amount of money for takeovers brokered by investment banks and private equity firms is trending above last year. In the U.S., market researcher Dealogic said volume has soared 86 percent to $228.6 billion from last year, while global volume rose 36 percent to $477.4 billion.

The statistics indicate that while the dollar amounts of these deals are growing, the number of them isn't. There have been 519 deals in the U.S. so far this year, down 38 percent from 2006, while global transactions declined 25 percent to 2,392.

Analysts believe this shows a shift in M&A trends. Wall Street might see the number of deals edge lower. But, those still in the mix will fetch increasingly higher takeover bids, such as a potential Alcoa deal that would easily top $30 billion.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/wall_main.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

98. Stocks close higher led by gains for Google, Yahoo

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Internet companies ended Friday's trading slightly higher, with shares of Google Inc. gaining on a new reported acquisition and Yahoo Inc. adding 2.1% as analyst cheered changes to its advertising features.

The Dow Jones Internet Index added 0.4% to reach 104.95, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was flat at 2,496.31.

Shares of Google Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News) added 1.8% to end the day at $469.94 after reports surfaced that it purchased AdScape Media Inc., a San Francisco-based company that places advertisements within video games. The reported purchase price, $23 million, is far less than originally believed.

Also fueling the Google buying spree was a note by Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck, who said Google has begun implementing changes to its advertising features, which may drive more revenue its way during its next fiscal quarter.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070216/79278ae2fbd44cd3ace0923e2c551c65.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

99. Gold, Silver Rise on Oil Price Rebound

NEW YORK (AP) -- Higher oil prices helped gold and silver finished with modest gains Friday after profit-taking early in the session ate into prices.

April gold hit $668.80, its low for the day, less than half an hour into the session. Several analysts blamed the early pullback on profit-taking ahead of a three-day U.S. Presidents Day weekend after gold was not able to extend Wednesday's six-month high of $376.60.

A rebound in crude oil helped gold and silver bounce back, said Stephen Platt, analyst with Archer Financial Services. March crude was up roughly $1 a barrel as gold was closing.

April gold settled up $1.40 at $672.80 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while March silver settled up 2.8 cents at $13.99 an ounce.

April platinum settled down $6.50 at $1,210.40 an ounce, and March palladium settled down $1 at $341.80 an ounce.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/commodities_review.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

101. Activision Warned by Nasdaq Again

SANTA MONICA, Calif. (AP) -- Video game publisher Activision Inc. said Friday it received another notice from the Nasdaq Stock Market saying its shares are subject to delisting because it has not filed its financial results on time.

Activision has delayed filing the results for its fiscal third quarter, which ended in December, as well as the second quarter, because it is reviewing its past stock-option granting practices.

The company said it intends to file the delayed reports by the May 9 deadline, but added there can be no assurance it will be able to, at which point its stock may be delisted.

Activision said it expected the notice, which it received on Wednesday.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070216/activision_nadsaq.html?.v=1

[54anickel]

103. Closing time ( just for the "cute" blather)

Dow 12,767.57 2.56 (0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,496.31 0.79 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,455.54 1.27 (0.09%)
10-yr Bond 4.6900% 0.0160
30-yr Bond 4.7880% 0.0160
NYSE Volume 2,399,447,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,945,145,000

4:20 pm : After three consecutive days of gains, stocks looked lethargic Friday, trading in a narrow range throughout the session before closing relatively unchanged. The bulls still put up a respectable fight, however, since the Dow in the closing minutes limped into the finish with its 30th record close since October.

Among the biggest headlines stalling the market's momentum was Microsoft (MSFT 28.74 -0.72), which plunged after CEO Steve Ballmer spooked shareholders by saying analysts' sales estimates for Vista are "overly aggressive." Since the tech bellwether is one of only two stocks listed on all three major averages, Microsoft's 2.4% decline was a thorn in the market's side all day.

Also overshadowing another day of M&A was an exaggerated decline in housing starts. AMR Corp. (AMR 38.97 +0.92), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, is reportedly being eyed as a takeover target by a group that includes Goldman Sachs (GS 216.92 +0.10) and British Airways (BAB 112.65 +0.02). It was also reported that General Motors (GM 36.34 -0.10) is in talks to buy the entire Chrysler Group (DCX 73.33 +3.08).

Just two days ago, Fed Chairman Bernanke said he sees economic growth strengthening somewhat as the drag from housing diminishes. However, a larger than expected 14.1% decline in January housing starts to 10-year lows, whether an aberration or not due to the volatile nature of the report, failed to provide further proof that the struggling housing sector has not bottomed out.

The latest read on inflation at the wholesale level also hit the wires at 8:30 ET. Total PPI and core PPI matched economists' forecasts; but since the data won't alter inflation expectations, the report failed to provide investors with overwhelming evidence that pricing pressures are abating. The focus now turns to next week's more closely-watched CPI report.

From a sector standpoint, Honeywell (HON 47.83 +0.26) becoming the third Dow component this week to announce a sizable share buyback kept the Industrials sector in focus. However, further consolidation in railroads and weakness in the aerospace group earmarked the influential sector as the day's worst performer.

Oil prices surging 2.4% without any follow-through in energy stocks further underscored the market's cautious tone after such an impressive week for equities overall. DJ30 +2.56 NASDAQ -0.79 SP500 -1.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1307/1688/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1641/1637/1.33 bln

3:30 pm : The indices continue to trade sideways just below the flat line going into the close. Eight out of 10 sectors are still in negative territory, with declines of 0.4% from influential areas like Technology, Health Care and Industrials still acting as obstacles for buyers to overcome.

However, even if sellers stick around long enough to snap a three-day winning streak, the bulls can still claim victory for the week since the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on pace to close up 1.4%, 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. DJ30 -2.66 NASDAQ -0.74 SP500 -1.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1433/1538/1.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1798/1443/1.07 bln


Good night, have a great weekend - see ya'll back on Tuesday. :hi:

[AnneD]

104. Waaaa

I forgot about that.....see ya Tuesday.:hi: