Gallup--Bush back below 60 percent

[megaplayboy]

http://www.gallup.com


The rally effect that President George W. Bush enjoyed among the American public in the wake of the Iraq war has essentially disappeared. His overall job approval rating, his ratings on the economy and foreign affairs in general, his handling of the situation with Iraq, as well as his re-election standing among registered voters, are all back to levels measured in mid-March, before the war. His job approval rating is still several points above his term low, measured immediately before 9/11.



For the record, his low was 51 percent, in a poll taken 9/10/01.

He's now 8 points away from that level.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. ok the dimwit is on freefall folks

and that is a GOOD THING.

[Wonder]

2. what a world that war

would have a rallying effect. He is below half now. I don't just want this admin usurped in the next election I want heads to roll.

[Democat]

3. Other polls have him closer to 50% than that

When the right wing media says Bush is at 50%, you might guess he's quite a bit lower than that.

[diplomats]

13. Yes, if you check pollkatz.com

The CNN/Gallup polls tend to be on the high end. Even more encouraging is the fact that he has just a 4 point lead, 46 to 42, among registered voters in a matchup against a generic Dem. The one thing that I find strange is that his rating on the economy is 45 percent, on foreign policy 54 percent and Iraq 57 percent. Why is his overall rating 59 percent? It is because he's so "likable"? Ewww!

[jamesinca]

4. The polling report list all of his poll numbers

He is in a fall. In the S.F. Chronicle, I think it was Friday 7/18 he was at 49% in CA. I don't think any polls have him in the 60%'s anymore except FOX. FOX still has him listed as 93% (sarcasm). I take polls with a grain of salt. I sort of dismiss the ones on the extreme ad look at the middle ones.

www.pollingreport.com

[diplomats]

14. Actually, Fox also has him at 59 percent

eom

[Lexingtonian]

5. take 3-5% off that number for actual percentage

That seems to be the consensus number around the blogs, and fits my own observations very well, of the Gallup standard conservative sampling bias. In my experience it usually tends to the high end of that bias- a consistent 5%. Maybe with even more Republican money it'll drift into 6-7% deviation....

Quinnipiac also usually biases about the same amount though sometimes the bias is mysteriously absent.

I've said previously that W has a very constant overall rate of approval change of -25%/year, 9/11 providing the one contrary spike (to 90%) of importance. Iraq spiked him to 70% for a brief period of time but the total gain to attribute to it over trend has melted from a peak of +15-17% to now maybe +6%; IOW, no gains of any real permanence. His drop rate has responded to the spike simply by accelerating to a rate of -40%/year.

He should re-converge on the basic linearly decreasing approval 'baseline' (Iraq spike vanishes entirely) in two or three months at present rates. September 2003 could, given his proven inability to find approval rating stabilizers, find him at 40% approval and his Party in an outbreak of Conservative Panic.

[Merlin]

8. Can I have a toke of whatever it is you're smoking.

Just kidding. I pray you are right!
;-)

[radfringe]

6. "Do you think George W. Bush is a leader you can trust.....

http://www.pollingreport.com/bush.htm

"Do you think George W. Bush is a leader you can trust, or do you have some doubts and reservations?"
(Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. July 16-17, 2003. N=1,004 adults nationwide)

Can Trust / Have Doubts / Not Sure

7/03 47 51 2
3/03 56 41 3
12/02 50 48 2

-----------------

http://www.pollingreport.com/national.htm

[Melinda]

7. Whoa, look! It's Clinton's penis whipping * into submission!

I couldn't resist. :evilgrin:

[bamademo]

9. LOL

I thought I was the only one that had the dirty mind. It does look
like a <ahem> penis.

[VolcanoJen]

11. LMAO!!! Good one, Melinda!

:D

[underpants]

16. That looks like an arrow pointed............

right out the door.

[Ripley]

10. Great chart a DUer provided the other day:

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com

(Hit the snake and then "Approval all polls.")

Unfortunately, it looks like we are damn sure going to have a new war or attack before the election, because they are the only 2 reasons his numbers EVER went up.

[Robb]

12. Well, if you're like me

and a little tinfoil-hat inclined -- remember he doesn't actually have to have a war or an attack. He can just ratchet the terralert up a few notches and frighten everyone into "approving".

We have always been at war with Eurasia....

[PROGRESSIVE1]

15. Bush back below 60 percent..

AND STAY THERE, you lousy corporate, reich wing, BITCH!

[underpants]

17. ANYONE HAVE THAT GRAPH SHOWING ALL HIS NUMBERS?

It showed the ups and downs per poll source. Anyone? Beuller?