Surge in carbon levels raises fears of runaway warming

[muriel_volestrangler]

· Figures show higher than expected rise in CO2
· Scientists warn earth may be absorbing less gas

New figures from dozens of measuring stations across the world reveal that concentrations of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, rose at record levels during 2006 - the fourth year in the last five to show a sharp increase. Experts are puzzled because the spike, which follows decades of more modest annual rises, does not appear to match the pattern of steady increases in human emissions.

At its most far reaching, the finding could indicate that global temperatures are making forests, soils and oceans less able to absorb carbon dioxide - a shift that would make it harder to tackle global warming. Such a shift would worsen even the gloomy predictions of the Stern Review which warned that we had little over a decade to tackle rising emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
...
Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is measured in parts per million (ppm). From 1970 to 2000 that concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, as human activities sent more of the gas into the atmosphere. But according to the latest figures, last year saw a rise of 2.6ppm. And 2006 was not alone. A series of similar jumps in recent years means the carbon dioxide level has risen by an average 2.2ppm each year since 2001.

Above-average annual rises in carbon dioxide levels have been explained by natural events such as the El Niño weather pattern, centred on the Pacific Ocean. But the last El Niño was in 1998, when it resulted in a record annual increase in carbon dioxide of 2.9ppm. If the current trend continues, this year's predicted El Niño could see the annual rise in carbon dioxide pass the 3ppm level for the first time.

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1994071,00.html

[hatrack]

1. (Insert Gomer Pyle voice) Surprise, surprise, surprise!!!!!

Or maybe not.

Maybe it's not such a big surprise.

Maybe this is one of those positive feedback loops scientists kept talking about, and people like James Inhofe and the CEI kept talking over.

Or maybe we just weren't listening.

Oh well - at least it won't be boring.

[redqueen]

25. "...at least it won't be boring."

but some of us *like* boring!

... reminds me of that curse about living in interesting times.

[hatrack]

29. "The hungry Sheep look up and are not fed, but swoln with wind and the rank mist they draw,

Rot inwardly, and foul contagion spread:
Besides what the grim Woolf with privy paw
Daily devours apace, and nothing sed,
But that two-handed engine at the door,
Stands ready to smite once, and smite no more.

Milton, "Lycidas"

It's where John Brunner got the title for his novel.

[Lisa]

2. maybe the sea is getting tired of having to absorb all our CO2!

Already the acidity is rising -- we've actually been able to affect the entire ocean with our emissions. Tethys must be pretty annoyed with us by now.

[SpiralHawk]

3. "My faith-based scientists tell 'No Problemo.'" - Commander AWOL

"So while my republicon corporate cronies continue to make MASSIVE PROFITS
while trashing Planet Earth,
you fact-based science people can just shut up and sit down."

- Commander AWOL

[bajamary]

4. the permafrost thaw could increase

The permafrost has been thawing at a stunning rate and guess what's been stored in that permafrost? Yep, carbon dioxide.

So many, many reasons global warming is out of control.

Please Al Gore, please run for President in 08. And have my junior senator be your running mate.

Gore/Obama 08

[YankeyMCC]

5. Speaker Pelosi's new committee had better be able to

buck the history of all committees and get some fast action going to do what can be done to mitigate the suffering that is going to come as much as possible.

[Prisoner_Number_Six]

6. So they're getting their surge after all.

:evilgrin:

[gordianot]

7. The ultimate result of wars for oil, we are our own worst enemy.

Live for today and forget about tomorrow. The real threat to our national security is our own consumption.

[eppur_se_muova]

8. If everything is happening sooner than we think, we need to START THINKING SOONER. nt

[skids]

9. Truer words were never spoken! n/t

[pscot]

11. Whoa

That's really deep,man.:hippie:

[Jcrowley]

10. Feedback loop

K&R

[truthisfreedom]

13. Runaway positive feedback loop. I believe it has already spiraled out of control and the biggest

money to be made in the world is in real estate in areas least affected, and in future isolated off-the grid homes that are completely self-sufficient and totally modern.

[tom_paine]

14. Interesting that most biological processes are negative feedback loops

While, apparently and to the perhaps ultimate demise of the humn species (only time will tell, now), most if not all of Earth's feedback loops are positive.

I am just curious, from a scientific point of view, why that would be.

There is probably much to be learned for "alien anthropologists" (if such exist) in the last couple millenia of the human race, which I believe we are living in now.

2000 years, tops...maybe a lot less, though I hope not.

[Tesha]

19. Many real-world systems aren't "linear"

In a purely linear system, negative feedback can
restore stability.

But lots of real-world systems are only linear over
a narrow range and become non-linear when pushed too
far. Worse yet, they may have more than one "stable
state" and pushed far enough, they will jump from
Stable State 1 to Stable State 2 or Stable State 3,
etc.

That's what's facing us now. The climate machine is
highly non-linear and may have a number of stable
states. Pushed far enough, our Earth may jump from
the Human Age stable state to a more Venusian Stable
State where temperatures are stable again, but *MUCH*
hotter.

The dynamics of non-linear systems can be fascinating
(and sometimes, very deadly).

Tesha

[arewenotdemo]

33. When famine, war and viruses conspire to end the tyranny of Homo Sapiens

Earth history will surely record that as a negative feedback loop.

[Barrett808]

21. Buy land that will be new coastal property -- I call it the "Lex Luther development plan" n/t

[anotherdrew]

12. I blame bush. this started in 2001, he's doing this somehow

how ? why ? I don't know but I bet bush is somehow to blame.

we know where he plans to sit out the 'hard times' ahead...
him and his moonie allies no less.

[tavalon]

16. Bush fucked up bigtime

and he made it immeasurably worse. That said, this disaster is one that can't be placed at just his feet.

[Javaman]

37. My only consolation is: when the shit hits the fan, it won't only be

us that gets hit.

[FujiZ1]

26. Christ we're all to blame.

You can't scapegoat him for everything that goes wrong. It's our fucking lifestyle that perpetuates all of this. Blaming Bush is surely just an easy way out.

[Javaman]

38. It still fun :) nt

[hogwyld]

15. Just wait until the oceans warm up

And release all of that frozen methane gas... Hello Venus.

[Javaman]

17. One morning we will all wake to the fact of not being able to wake up.

As this train continues to speed down the hill with no brakes aimed at a brick wall, our leader continues to play with his blocks and the rest of the world goes on it's merry way figuring out the best way to burn more oil and coal.

yes there are nations out there that are trying their best to be morally responsible but those same nations also aren't the biggest polluters either.

[Gregorian]

18. People underestimate the amount of human activity on this planet.

This is a big part of this problem. Most people do not know what goes on behind the scenes.

I continue to propose a label system that indicates carbon emissions per unit. Essentially, how much gas did this product take. That way people don't need to be aware of the things that go on behind the scenes. Unfortunately it's not a trivial calculation. And it's not predictable. An avocado can come from central California, or Argentina. Who would be able to label things like that on the fly?

First, people need to know. I'm glad we're starting to see, finally. Sadly, it's really too late. I spent decades screaming about this problem, on deaf ears.


Also if anyone thinks the billion gallons of fuel we have burned in the name of Iraq is insignificant, think again. That's all on top of what the world would ordinarily be burning.

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. That's roughly what the UK's largest supermarket has said it will do

The new carbon labelling programme - which will eventually extend to more than 50,000 products sold in the UK - will not be immediate. Tesco said it would first have to develop a “universally accepted and commonly understood” measuring system. The grocer intends to set up a “Sustainable Consumption Institute” and has commissioned academics at Oxford University to lead the project at a cost of £5m a year.

Mr Madden described the proposed carbon labelling scheme as “groundbreaking”. He added: “It shows they are serious about tackling climate change and intend to do it by helping millions of customers make straightforward and affordable choices”.

In the meantime all food products airfreighted into the UK will carry an aeroplane symbol.

According to Defra food transported by air - mainly fresh fruit and vegetables - accounts for only 0.1% of total food miles, but generates some 13% of total food transport CO2 emissions. Road and air "food miles" generated nearly 18m metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2004, the latest year for which figures are available.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1993817,00.html

Yes, it could be difficult - but I'm glad to see they're talking about it.

[Shallah Kali]

34. I was just reading that Tesco is to install solar panels to reduce energy usage

While this will not provide all of the energy it is an excellent start. If only more people had listened to the environmentalists even one decade ago we would have instillations like this all over the place! Every bit helps whether it is people using compact florescent bulbs or putting up solar panels it adds up.

Tesco USA to get "world's biggest" solar roof
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070119/sc_nm/tesco_solar_dc_2

"Our BIPV roofing system will... provide a fifth of the depot's power supply, and save 1,200 tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year," Solar Integrated Chief Executive R. Randall MacEwen said.

"We believe this will be the largest roof-mounted solar installation in the world," he added.

Tesco pledged on Thursday to spread an environmentally friendly message to its millions of customers and to set an example by spending more than 500 million pounds ($987 million), cutting prices on energy-efficient products and reducing pollution.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

22. I thought this WAS an El Nino year!

I'm sure I heard someone announce it as fact back in September/October. They were explaining that El Nino was keeping Atlantic hurricanes to a minimum.

[pitohui]

23. yes it is an el nino year and an interesting one

it started unusually early and was the reason for the unexpectedly pleasant atlantic hurricane season of 2006

we will see if it continues through 2007 to give us another safe year

[pitohui]

31. update

professor gray is saying the el nino may end in may 2007, which will allow another bad atlantic hurricane season :-(

[BrokenBeyondRepair]

24. humans had a good run; maybe the next form of intelligent life will do better..

[Javaman]

39. Actually not really. When matched against the dinosaurs...

we're not even a blip on the radar.

[kestrel91316]

27. Dear Youth of the World: I am so sorry for any role I have played

in the destruction of your futures. I have tried to live responsibly and make do with less and have less impact on our Mother Earth, and I have tried to set a good example. There is only so much one person can do, however, and there are too few of us to mitigate the damage caused by the entire human race.

Sincerely, kestrel



:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[Karenina]

32. I said much the same

to a 15 year-old yesterday.

[Javaman]

40. I refuse to apologize to future generations for something that was set up by rich greedy bastards...

100 years ago. And as a result we're taught from an early age that this was out way of life.

We all are a product of oil. Even our children. The current population increase is in direct relation to the growth of the "industrial age" and the use of oil. The children of today are as much a direct result of our over indulgent ways as we are.

If there is anyone that needs to apologize it's two groups of people. One, the originators of this way of life that was set up back in the 1930's and two, the oil assholes that continue to keep us on the oil teet.

Lastly, I also refuse to apologize because I am trying to at least limit my output by doing what is right by limiting the use of my car, use public transportation, not buy (as best I can) plastic based products or things packaged in plastic, buy my food locally or grow my own and recycle.

Those that continue to be a blight on society by polluting the most or not change their way of living, will in the end have the most to apologize for.

We live in the age of oil. Everything we do is governed by it. So if we are going to apologize for it, then we shouldn't just stop at the polluted air we breath, we should apologize for the clothes we put on our children's back, the heat we warm them with in our homes, the food we buy at the store, (even organic because that has to be transported via truck), the water we drink, the lights we have to see at night, the list goes on and on, etc, because all of it is produced, allowed and powered by oil.

Rather than apologize, I work toward a solution instead. Buy local, take public transportation, recycle rainwater, grow food in your garden or balcony, and most of all, teach your children well that they will learn a to live a better tomorrow.

Because rather than feeling guilty for what I was taught, I can learn instead from the mistakes of the past and present and turn them into positives.

[Earth_First]

28. Another 'surge' eh?

While I have to hand it to the Guardian for reporting on this, I'd really like to know who comes up with the catchphrase du-jour. I mean, is there a committee that sits around an executive table bi-monthly and comes out with the next list of words for the media to rollout in the next few weeks...?

Because I want that job, because I have a word I'd like to see reported more on:

bullsh*t.

That is all.

[BeHereNow]

30. Go read Chapter 3 in the Stern Review Report (mentioned in the article) YIKES.

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm

BHN:scared: :scared: :scared:

[Nihil]

35. Just the summary in table 3.1 ...

... is enough to make your blood run cold!

:scared: indeed.

[nolabels]

36. The petri dish, a finite just like the world (or spaceship) we live in.

To think it a different way, what if this world was the only place us humans would ever get? Wouldn't you think we would take better care of it if we knew that going in :shrug:

It might already be too late by the way

Siberian Bogs Big Player in Greenhouse Gas
JAMES OWEN / National Geographic News 15jan2004



Northern Russia's vast peat bogs may play a pivotal role in regulating greenhouse gas levels throughout the world, according to a new study.

The barren peat-lands of Siberia have been a massive methane producer since soon after the last ice age some 12,000 years ago, far longer than previously thought, scientists say. They also found evidence that suggests peat bogs rank among the world's top carbon stores, absorbing huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
(snip)
http://www.mindfully.org/Air/2004/Siberia-Greenhouse-Gas15jan04.htm

[Uncle Joe]

41. And I hear methane is an even worse heat trapper than carbon dioxide!

This does not bode well for life as we know it.

[nolabels]

42. They say 27 times or so but there also seems to a few other sources

Of course we know about the industrial agriculture sources but just for instance this one

News
August 29, 2006
Global Warming Spurs Ocean Methane Release
By David Biello
http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:Ji5UwiB_qzIJ:www.sciam.com/article.cfm%3FarticleID%3D0000C2C7-68A2-14F3-A56883414B7F0000+methane+greenhouse+gas+global+warming&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=9&client=firefox-a

And to think that we shouldn't worry because some say others are on it, figuring it out and trying to solve it just kind of seems foolhardy. Some brain dead ass like Rummy gets out and professes that we don't need to know about the unknown because it is unknown and yet people listen just amazes me :shrug:

[MGD]

43. Elevated CO2, temperatures, and moisture is good for the photosynthesizes

so the plants should be happily absorbing this CO2 and converting it to O2. I would be curious to see how the atmospheric oxygen concentration has fluctuated alongside the CO2 graph as this would be diagnostically more meaningful than the CO2 graph alone.