Yahoo News: Economists Upgrade US Outlook After Surprisingly Strong Data

[Psephos]

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Economists are hastily upgrading their forecasts for the US economy after a series of surprisingly strong reports suggesting the so-called "soft landing" may be over and growth is accelerating. Over the past week, surprises have come in stronger-than-expected reports on US job creation, the trade balance and retail sales -- all key contributors to economic activity.

Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris on Friday boosted his forecast for fourth quarter 2006 growth to an annualized rate of 3.3 percent, a leap from the firm's prior call for just 2.0 percent growth. "After slowing in November, the economy seems to have regained its stride," Harris said.... "A wide range of indicators have been stronger than expected. Most important have been the strong consumption data and the surprising improvement in the trade balance."

The latest data defy predictions that the slump in real estate would filter into other areas of the economy, notably consumer spending.

The latest data showed US employers added a healthy 167,000 new jobs in December, with unemployment holding at a low 4.5 percent. Average wages were up 4.2 percent annually.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070114/bs_afp/useconomygrowth

Hmmm. It hasn't quite trickled down to me, yet. Heh heh.

Peace.

[fooj]

1. With all of the things going on around the world...

the market is stronger than ever. Sure. Right.

[democraticinsurgent]

2. 167k jobs is NOT healthy

according to the models that are often mentioned here, it takes at least that many jobs to keep up with natural job force growth.

dang that liburl media.

[w4rma]

3. These economists are making fools of their profession. (nt)

[ClintonTyree]

4. "surprising improvement in the trade balance".....

:wtf: Didn't we just set another new record for our trade imbalance with China?

Once again Wall Street is propping up the Chimp in Chief's flagging economy so they can steal what's left of Americans' pensions and savings. The redistribution of wealth in our country continues unabated.

Edit: U.S.-China trade imbalance surges http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/5399496/c_5382648?f=home_todayinfinance

"According to a Chinese report, that country's trade surplus with the United States climbed more than 43 percent last year; U.S. government figures may set the final tally even higher".

Yeah, tell me again what great shape our economy is in. Christ almighty, they lie to us 3 days after this is released and think we won't remember? Again, :wtf:

[BluePatriot]

5. Consumption data all floating on credit....

Can't wait until someone figures out that one...

[willthekid]

6. The problem being that the "job growth" is crap even by old Carter standards

Even under Jimmy Carter's stagflation 1970s economy we had equal or better job creation than we have now and at least back then the jobs that were being created were very good paying manufacturing and blue-collar type jobs along with white-collar jobs that not only paid a living wage adjusted for inflation in the day but usually gave full medical and dental care as well as a nice pension fund and maybe even a 401K back when they actually meant a damn.

The economy is actually bad. Why do they say it's good when it's at right now where it was SIX years ago and adjusted for inflation the stock market still hasn't reached the heights it reached during the tech boom of the late 90s and early 00s. Chimpus calls creating 100K jobs where you can only work 30 hours a week for a crap 8 bucks an hour plus no benefits as "positive job creation."

Wait 20 years when we have a nasty credit meltdown and all these banks start calling in their debts and people can't pay them off. Haha, that's going to be a nasty sight to behold when all those businesses file for bankruptcy and put scores of people out of work.

[paulk]

7. I wonder how many of those 167k jobs

which isn't even a particularly "healthy" increase, considering that it takes 150k a month just to keep up with population growth, were seasonal (x-mas) jobs?

I read articles like this about how wonderful the economy is - then I look at my books and I wonder what economy these "economists" are living in that I'm not. I mean, I just had the worst year, by FAR, in the nine years I've been in business. It's been so bad, we're thinking of pulling the plug.

It just seems like wishful thinking - as if repetition somehow creates reality.