STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 13

[ozymandius]

Wednesday December 13, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 768 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2177 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1883 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1844
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 12, 2006

Dow... 12,315.58 -12.90 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq... 2,431.60 -11.26 (-0.46%)
S&P 500... 1,411.56 -1.48 (-0.10%)
Gold future... 631.70 -3.10 (-0.49%)
30-Year Bond 4.61% -0.02 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.49% -0.03 (-0.64%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

WEEKLY CHARTS

SUMMARY

Last week we said, "Most of the indicators are pointing down while seasonality is highly positive. Therefore, the odds do favor some sort of weakness with a renewal of buying interest later in the week. NASDAQ offers the best forecasting "picture" for the following week, and thus, we have chosen it as our "proxy" for what we ought to expect. The three most possible scenarios--and their probabilities as calculated by our system--are illustrated below...(link)"

This week we have a mixed picture with some indicators testing the zero lines, and others still rising explains the modest weakness early on in the week. It should be noted that in the last 10 years eighty percent of the time, December OPEX week has turned out to be a positive one. Therefore, yes, something can always spook the market, but the odds are against you betting on it. We expect a bottom on Tuesday and an overall positive week. Also, please read: Market Timing.

On another note, keep an eye on the XAU. If the 138-140 support level holds and we get an upside reversal, then the XAU can easily rally 15-18 points over the next two weeks.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Retail Sales Nov
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior -0.4%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Nov
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior -0.4%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.4%

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/08
Prior -1049K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

4. 8:30 reports:

U.S. retail sales up 5.6% in past year - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

U.S. Nov. electronics, appliance sales up 4.6% - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

U.S. Oct. retail sales revised higher to -0.1% vs. -0.4% - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

U.S. Nov. gasoline station sales up 2.3% - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

U.S. Nov. auto sales up 0.9% - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

U.S. Nov. retail sales ex-autos up 1.1% vs. 0.3% expected - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

U.S. Nov. retail sales up 1.0% vs. 0.2% expected - 8:30 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 21 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

10. Business Inventories Report:

U.S. Oct. retail auto inventories fall 0.6% - 10:00 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 5 hours ago

U.S. Oct. retail inventories flat - 10:00 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 5 hours ago

U.S. Oct. business sales fall 0.2%, 2nd drop in a row - 10:00 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 5 hours ago

U.S. Oct. business inventories rise 0.4% as expected - 10:00 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 5 hours ago

U.S. Oct. inventory-sales ratio 1.31, highest since Feb. '04 - 10:00 AM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 5 hours ago

gotta run away again :(

:hi:

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices drift lower

LONDON - Oil prices drifted lower Wednesday before the release of a weekly U.S. petroleum supply figures expected to show higher inventories in gasoline and heating oil.

The market was also awaiting a decision by OPEC this week on whether to make further production cuts to shore up prices. Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries began gathering in Abuja, Nigeria, and continued to send mixed messages about their intent.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 13 cents to $60.89 a barrel in electronic trading by midday in Europe. The contract fell 20 cents a barrel on Tuesday.

The January Brent crude contract, which expires at the close of trading Thursday, slipped 30 cents to $61.22 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Mojorabbit]

7. Wall Street Mixed After Oil Report

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061213/wall_street.html?.v=19
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street was narrowly mixed Wednesday, trying to find direction in a volatile session where stocks at first surged on robust retail sales numbers, but then reversed course after a disappointing crude inventory report caused oil prices to rise.

The Energy Department reported crude inventories fell for a third straight week, which sent oil and gasoline prices sharply higher. Less supply means both oil and gas could cost more, and that was seen by the stock market as an obstacle to consumer spending.

The supplies data essentially offset a robust retail sales report that showed strong consumer spending in November. Investors had sent stocks higher on belief higher household spending will drive corporate profits, and help push economic growth.

This helped soothe Wall Street's concerns that the economy is moderating too fast, but also indicated the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates anytime soon. The report caused a sell off in the Treasury bond market -- which had been betting on an interest rate cut as soon as the first quarter.

[Tace]

5. Pick A Big Ol' Juicy Mogambo Booger (BOJMB) Out Of My Nose (Mogambo Guru)

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

Dec. 12, 2006 -- Surprisingly, Total Fed Credit, which is the magical fairy dust of economics, went down last week, if only by a measly $1.6 billion. But the Federal Reserve helped make up for it by buying outright another $1.3 billion in U.S. government securities.

The banks, always eager to please, placed another $37 billion in new loans last week, about a third of them mortgage loans, believe it or not, proving again that blind optimism still trumps fundamentals and statistics in America, sort of like my wife thinking that I am going to change one of these days.

The big news is that the Treasury Secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve are in China to hopefully make some deals, in which they will plead ("Please, please, please save our American economic butts!") with the Chinese to use their massive reserves, mostly dollars, and their growing political clout to keep this whole ridiculous economic mess from collapsing, and in return we will agree to give them missiles, weapons, fighter aircraft, war materiel, nuclear technology, supercomputers, a compliant Congress, our land, our businesses, our women, our children, barbeque sandwiches with a side of fries and anything else they want, as much as they want, anytime they want, which they will want because they are on their way to dominating the world. And now it is just a matter of negotiating how, and how much.

I say that we get the same thing in microcosm from Jim Willie and his Hat Trick newsletter, where we learn the sorry news that a lot of previous GDP growth was caused by people spending money that they got by borrowing against the artificially-increased equity in their houses, a dimwitted process known as Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (which should be known as A Stupid Idea To Increase The Size Of Your Mortgage Debt), that was created by the housing boom, which was created by a lot of desperate people who needed to make a lot of money in a hurry (mostly to make up for their stock market losses in 2001), which was facilitated by the loathsome Federal Reserve creating the money to finance it all, and allowed by an irresponsible Congress and government that routinely "looked the other way" at such reckless irresponsibility in the banks because so much money was to be made. But let me sneak off behind the garage to have a lousy cigarette, and it's some kind of big felony case or something. Go figure!

more

http://www.worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=741

[Tace]

6. Refco Has A Free 1-Month Simulated Futures Trading Account

http://www.refco.com/ps/ps.sim.trading.asp

This simulated trading account can be a fun way to enjoy and learn about the markets and trading without risking any money. Refco gets the fills through Man, a futures biggie.

It's $15 a month for the simulated account after the first month.

I've been trading the long side of the March silver contract. It's fun. I'm not affiliated with Refco or Man in any way.

[Mojorabbit]

8. World Bank offers robust global outlook

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/119880c2-8a6a-11db-8940-0000779e2340.html
The World Bank's annual global economic prospects report, released on Wednesday, is a rare thing these days: a study glowing with optimism about the future for globalisation.

The report not only says that the global economy should do well in the next two years, but that globalisation between now and 2030 will proceed apace.

It predicts an optimistic 3.1 per cent growth rate per head in developing countries (compared with 2.1 per cent since 1980), and that rapidly growing international trade in services - half of which will come from developing countries - will drive continued globalisation.

Key to the report's long-term projections is the emergence of a "global middle class" - defined as those with an annual per capita income between the average in Brazil and in Italy, about $4,000 and $17,000 respectively.
snip
(re inequality...)
But not only is sub-Saharan Africa slipping further behind, inequality within some developing countries, including successful ones, is increasing. It is on this comparison that poor people in poor countries are likely to focus. It is of little comfort to a family of Indian farmers that they are slowly catching up with their counterparts in Indonesia, while the incomes of India's highly-educated IT elite soar out of sight.
It will also be easy, in both rich and poor countries,to blame this on traderather than the more likely culprit - changes in technology that increase the value of skills.

[UpInArms]

9. Mortgage delinquency report (hit and run post)

U.S. mortgage delinquencies jump in third quarter: MBA - 1:00 PM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 2 hours ago

U.S. mortgage delinquency rate 4.67% in 3Q vs. 4.39% in 2Q - 1:00 PM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 2 hours ago

U.S. mortgage foreclosures inch higher in third quarter - 1:00 PM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 2 hours ago

U.S. foreclosure rate 1.05% in 3Q vs. 0.99% in 2Q - 1:00 PM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 2 hours ago

Delinquencies, foreclosures will go higher: MBA's Duncan - 1:00 PM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 2 hours ago

Housing market will 'regain footing' in mid-2007: Duncan - 1:00 PM ET, Dec 13, 2006 - 2 hours ago

[ozymandius]

11. sweeping the floor and turning out the lights

Dow 12,317.50 Up 1.92 (0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,432.41 Up 0.81 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,413.21 Up 1.65 (0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.577% Up 0.086
NYSE Volume 2,552,258,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,874,180,000

4:20 pm : Even though stocks closed in positive territory, the market struggled to find much direction all afternoon as five months of gains continued to leave the major averages looking tired.

Before the bell, the stage was set for the underlying bullish tone to resurface following Tuesday's breather after a surprisingly strong retail sales report boosted investor confidence about the strength of the U.S. economy.

With consumers taking advantage of holiday discounts, retail sales in November posted their largest gain (1.0%) since July (consensus 0.2%), as strength in 11 of 13 categories eased concerns about weakness in the housing market curtailing consumption. Also indicative of good underlying growth in consumer spending was an even better 1.1% rise in sales excluding autos. That was the largest increase since January.

Not surprisingly, the biggest beneficiary was Consumer Discretionary. The sector found some support from a 1.0% gain in one of its biggest constituents, and Dow component, Home Depot (HD 39.08 +0.38), which confirmed expansion efforts into China by acquiring The Home Way.

Other deal making today included reports that UAL Corp (UAUA 45.24 +2.01) is in talks to merge with Continental Airlines (CAL 44.72 +1.84). Such a combination would make it the world's largest carrier measured by passenger traffic, eclipsing American Airlines. The latter is owned by AMR Corp (AMR 32.60 +0.60), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio.

More evidence of industry consolidation lit a fire under Airlines - today's best performing S&P industry group (+2.8%). However, a number of analyst downgrades (e.g. CSX -4.4%, JBHT -2.5%, YRCW -2.1%) and rising oil prices weighed on transportation stocks, removing leadership from Industrials - today's worst performing sector.

In fact, Energy was the only sector exhibiting any conviction on the part of buyers. Nonetheless, its advance was largely attributed to crude oil futures closing higher for the first time in four days, which in turn removed some of the enthusiasm behind what today's strong retail sales data say about consumer spending. Had it not been for the sector's leadership as a major contributor to profit growth on the S&P 500, stocks would have finished lower.

Aside from rising oil prices, a sell-off in Treasuries also left investors questioning the sustainability of the five-month rally in equities. The 10-year note plunged 21 ticks, lifting the yield to 4.57%, after strong retail sales growth diminished hopes of an interest rate cut in early 2007. As a reminder, the Dow and S&P 500 are up more than 15% from their summer lows and the Nasdaq is up nearly 21% since mid July. Such impressive performances, though, have been supported in part by lower oil prices and a decline in borrowing costs. DJ30 +1.92 NASDAQ +0.81 SP500 +1.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1540/1525/1.81 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1584/1731/1.42 bln