China's banks open to competitionDecember 11, 2006
SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China's banking industry officially opens to full foreign competition on Monday, a landmark for the country's financial sector and a day of reckoning for the country's mostly state-owned banks.
The world's biggest banks -- Citigroup Inc., HSBC and Bank of America among them -- have spent billions of dollars and devoted huge resources to positioning themselves for this moment.
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/12/10/china.banks.ap/China's banks are the Achilles heel of the global boom12/12/2006
...Bill McDonough, the ex-chief of New York Federal Reserve, let slip at a conference in Italy this week that China's rickety credit structure was the biggest single menace to the world economy.
...Investment is running at 43pc of GDP, leaving an oversupply of factories and office blocks, like Japan in the 1980s, but with even less market discipline. Ernst & Young calculated the bad debts at more than $900bn in a report this year but was forced to recant by Beijing.
Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China, said the regime had embarked on a suicidal course, living from one day to the next from fear that 140m footloose urban migrants could turn violent.
"China is just piling up more and more non-performing loans, and eventually it's going to come crashing down, because economically this doesn't make any sense," he said. "You can't blow up your balance sheet at 20pc to 25pc a year with a well-managed bank in a well-regulated society. How the devil can you do it in China? This is just ludicrous," he said.
...Mr Paulson's brief from the Smoot-Hawley protectionists on Capitol Hill is to scream so loudly at the Chinese over their $168bn trade surplus that they bend to demands for a stronger yuan. He knows this is the surest path to financial crisis for both countries: for America because China's central bank now holds more than $700bn in US bonds and dollar instruments, including $342bn in US Treasuries. China is now global lender of last resort.
...Less understood is that a sharp rise in the yuan could be the last straw for China's banks, sitting on a network of loss-making factories living off marginal exports.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/11/ccview11.xml