Melting ice 'will swamp capitals'

[IndianaGreen]

Melting ice 'will swamp capitals'
By Geoffrey Lean Environment Editor
07 December 2003

Measures to fight global warming will have to be at least four times stronger than the Kyoto Protocol if they are to avoid the melting of the polar ice caps, inundating central London and many of the world's biggest cities, concludes a new official report.

The report, by a German government body, says that even if it is fully implemented, the protocol will only have a "marginal attenuating effect" on the climate change. But last week even this was thrown into doubt amid contradictory signals from the Russian government as to whether it will allow the treaty to come into effect.

Global warming already kills 150,000 people a year worldwide and the rate of climate change is soon likely to exceed anything the planet has seen "in the last million years" says the report, produced by the German Advisory Council on Global Change for a meeting of the world's environment ministers to consider the future of the treaty in Milan this week.

It concludes that the protocol must urgently be brought into force, but only as a first step, insisting that "catastrophic" climate change "can now only be prevented if climate protection targets are set at substantially higher levels than those agreed internationally until now".

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=470838

[Raenelle]

1. Oh, I thought you said it would swamp capitalists

I like my version better. Well, never mind.

[david_vincent]

2. I'd kinda like to see

Katherine Harris's district submerged.

[midnight armadillo]

3. If the caps melt...

...and there's a 3-6 foot sea level rise, almost all of Florida will be underwater. Along with Louisiana. Coastal cities will be in big trouble. BIG trouble.

[david_vincent]

4. Hey, my alma mater will be under water!

I've pretty much reached the point where I just figure we've got it coming.
Maybe Plato was right about that whole Atlantis thing...

[TreasonousBastard]

12. Most of the East and Gulf coasts will disappear...

and rivers like the Hudson and Mississippi will rise over their banks, flooding inland areas.

The problems are not limited to the US, of course--Bangla Desh will disappear, the Amazon, Nile, and Rhine will flood, much of other parts of coastal Asia, Africa, and Europe will be under water. Coastal Central and South America will be under water, and islands will disappear. The Great Lakes and St. Lawrence will also rise, wiping out a large part of populated Canada.

Most of the world's seaports will be useless.

At least a quarter of the world's population will lose their homes and workplaces, probably more.

Glacial melt and the rise of sea temperatures are already causing a slight rise in sea levels, and glacial melt is causing severe flooding in some areas. The real problem is when the Antarctic ice shelves break up to where they can't hold back the hundreds of cubic miles of land ice. That amount of ice sliding into the ocean will cause an almost immediate sea rise.

Then, there's the probability of currents like Humboldt and Gulf Stream changing course, which has happened before, and the effects of that will be catastrophic.

Another interesting probablity is the release of incredible amounts of methane from melting northern permafrost. Siberia and Alaska have already noted a small amount of permafrost melting.

It doesn't look good no matter what we do.

"Head for the hills" takes on new meaning.

[HereSince1628]

16. Question re: Great Lakes water levels.

I can see how rising sea level would possibly effect the lower reaches of the St. Lawrence river. But I don't think I've ever seen anything suggesting the lakes above Niagra Falls rising.

I can't get my head around the concept of waterlevels of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, or Erie rising as a direct consequence of melting glaciers or the ice caps. I'm not aware of any rivers that run from glacier fields into the great lakes. Although I'll admit I don't know much about Canadian rivers.

I'm guessing you are aware of some computer projection that shows increased precipitation in the GL's catchment basin. Do you have a link to a source? That would be interesting because Lake Michigan water level has been falling over the past decade.

[htuttle]

23. I think you are correct about the Great Lakes

IIRC, the bottom of most of the Great Lakes is above sea level. The only one I'm not positive about is Superior, but at best I think the bottom of Superior is *near* sea level. I'm pretty sure it's still above it.

So a rise in mean ocean levels shouldn't directly cause the GL levels to rise (nor the Mississippi, except down at the Delta). At least not due to simple physics.

Much heavier rainfall could cause them to rise, but not the ice caps melting. At least I don't think so.

ON EDIT: I just went and looked it up. Lake Superior is 405m deep. Duluth is about 436m above sea level. So Superior is pretty much entirely above sea level, excepting local irregularities. The rest of the Great Lakes are quite a bit shallower.

[Code_Name_D]

35. Something is wrong with thoes numbers.

3 to 6 feet? I know a lot of land will disapire under that, but its not that much. I am six foot tall. I have to wonder if that number isn't a lot higher,

[stevedeshazer]

5. Well, at least

it will create jobs....gotta rebuild all those churches and stuff.

[NickB79]

6. Maybe I should go back to school for my dike-building degree

Big business building sea-walls around cities in the future, I bet.

[stevedeshazer]

7. Gondolas! Canals!

Could be the new plastics... :-)

[demconfive]

36. Ain't gonna happen.

There is no way the present administration is going to allow the funding of dykes.

[IndianaGreen]

8. Disappearing Ice Sends a Warning for Global Climate Systems (Greenpeace)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, DECEMBER 5, 2003. 5:28 AM
CONTACT: Greenpeace

Disappearing Ice Sends a Warning for Global Climate Systems

MILAN, ITALY - December 5 - Ice in the polar regions, Greenland and in glaciers around the world is melting at an alarming rate as global temperatures increase, and could have radical implications for the future global climate, according to an upcoming book edited by glaciologists Dr Jonathan Bamber and Dr Anthony Payne, of Bristol University.

The book "Mass Balance of the Cryosphere", written by a team of 23 scientists examines the state of the frozen water in the world, looking at the Arctic and Antarctic regions, Greenland, glaciers and sea ice. The cryosphere comprises all the frozen water and soil on the surface of the Earth, and is an important indicator of short- and long-term climate change.

"In the Arctic, Greenland, West Antarctic and in glaciers globally, ice and snow levels are generally in retreat, and the scientific consensus that average global temperatures will continue to increase over the next century means that the risk to these already climatically sensitive areas is increasing," said Dr Bamber, speaking at the Kyoto Protocol talks in Milan.

"Many people don't realise that there is much more at risk than simply a loss of pristine wilderness. For example the ocean currents that give Europe its relatively mild climate could be disrupted by fresh water influxes from melting ice in the Arctic and the Gulf Stream may slow down or even stop."

http://www.commondreams.org/news2003/1205-01.htm

[Eloriel]

9. I think that's called the Saline Cycle

(might be in the article --haven't read it yet).

Could bring in a new ice age, IIRC.

Eloriel

[Dogmudgeon]

14. Thermohaline Circulation

It's usually abbreviated THC but it's never mentioned in a pleasurable, altered-state kind of context.

Thermohaline Circulation depends on the ocean having a certain salinity to be ablt to sustain a complex of "currents". These currents "break down" when ice-melt water run-off from places like Greenland and the North Polar Ice Cap (now known as the North Polar Sea) dilute the salinity of the currents. Some of these important THC currents include the Gulf Stream and almost every Northern Atlantic "tributary" stream.

Several of the smaller ones have broken down already. Northern ice melt is happening much faster than was expected, not because of warming or CO2 levels, but for reasons nobody quite understands. Owing to this, and many other unexplainable things that have been happening to the climate, many earth scientists think that the current interstadial period is ending. Interstadial, in this context, means "between Ice Ages."

If/when the main North Atlantic THCs break down, Europe will be hit with a nasty cold snap within two weeks. The temperature in Europe will drop by about 20F, and the following winter will be ferocious. It will only take another year at the most for the cold weather to spread to North America, as temperatures here drop about 10F.

As this happens, crops will fail, huge numbers of people will migrate into warmer areas, and blizzards -- like the "1993 superstorm" that hit North America AND Europe -- will become weekly occurrences.

I've kept my eye on this process since the late 1970s when it was first discovered. It has become quite visible that we are "kindling" the environment into another ice age which may not have otherwise happened for a thousand years or more. And worse yet, once the ice starts to accumulate again, the neo-Cons are going to be yapping, "where's yer 'Global Warming' now, huh?", gloating even as the Quaternary Period comes to a frigid end.

--bkl
One good point: Excellent skiing conditions for 110,000 years!

[HereSince1628]

18. It has also been discussed in Deep Ocean Conveyor lit.

[0007]

20. This will surely take a large toll on humanity and change many life styles

for sure. The Indians may get their country back.

[Beacho]

10. Man, I hate be a smartass

But why is this a BAD thing?

*sorry*

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[R Hickey]

13. What do you mean?

?

[Dogmudgeon]

15. Bad Things

Here's a partial list:

• Temperature drops of 20F in Europe, 10F in North America, with little or no cooling in equatorial areas -- increased global temperature gradient

• Increased global temperature gradient generates many more hurricanes and typhoons, flooding storms, snowstorms

• Rapid accumulation of ice in most latitudes higher than 45 degrees north and 60 degrees south

• Crop losses, Famines, mass starvation

• Desertification shifts northward into populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere

• Flu and infectious disease epidemics

• Dramatic die-off of 75-90% of all terrestrial species

• Loss of ionosphere, disrupting radio communication (from magnetic pole reversals that usually concide with global climate disruption)

• Loss of magnetosphere, allowing increased damage to environment and technology (see above)

• Birds and other migratory animals which depend on magnetic orientation lose the ability to survive winters in the north

• Increased earthquake activity probable due to two rapid changes in ice-cap mass in a short time

... and that's just off the top of my head.

By the way, if this changeover hits in the next 20-50 years, it will coincide with the end of cheap oil and natural gas, which will make coping with colder weather much more difficult.

Sorry to "harsh on your mellow", but even if it's not driven by human waste heat, a rapid return to ice-age conditions would be a disaster on an unimaginable scale.

--bkl

[SouthernDaisy]

17. I'm very concerned too, but....

Most people think that the earth's temperature is (or should be) pretty constant. But the truth is that the earth's albido, volcanic gases and sea currents all play a part in making the earths temperature swing wildly like a roller coaster. Check out the earth's mean temp. over the past several hundred thousand years and you'll see that ice ages come and go regularly.

The earth is still coming out of the last Ice Age that lasted about 60-70 million years..

The whole reason that man has been able to become as civilized and
successful as we have been is because of the warming period that we are in (and have been for the last 10,000 years).

Research these links:

http://museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/
http://www.geo.sunysb.edu/cei542/Workgroups/atmosphere/vaughn/between.htm

http://147.205.15.81/geology/work/VFT-so-far/glaciers/glacier1.html
http://encarta.msn.com/find/Concise.asp?ti=04874000
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ice/
http://WilliamCalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm

The last one listed above really gives one pause... It' claims that the earth is capable of really quick flip/flops in temperature. Like being able to go into an Ice Age in a matter of a couple of decades!

So... while I'm very worried about global warming, I believe that global icing would be worse. I think that as a species, we could survive global warming a WHOLE lot better !

:)

[jmcgowanjm]

19. My theory: humans used by GAIA to change/use Hydrocarbons

and get rid of all the old trees.

We've almost done it.

Next Dominating lifeform, Paging
Next Dominating Lifeform, white courtesy
phone,please

[RobinA]

21. Agree!

Warming isn't going to "hit," it will be gradual and humans will adjust. Climate change is inevitable.

[RainDog]

32. what did you agree with?

you said-

Warming isn't going to "hit," it will be gradual and humans will adjust. Climate change is inevitable.

--the poster you replied to did not say this at all.

the issue of global warming is the ensuing ice age which is seemingly coming...so I'm still trying to find out what it is you agree with from the other poster. Global warming, in other words, is just the beginning of the problems.

According to those who study these things, we are due for an ice age, whether humans accelerate the process or not.

Climate change is inevitable, but the lack of response to real issues concerning the real problems we face is simply dereliction of duty.

by saying, yes, all will be okay, let's go drill for more oil, doesn't make the probable future go away, as much as the chickenhawk littles would like to believe.

[NickB79]

31. Global warming, ironically, could initiate an Ice Age

See posts 8, 9, and 14, they covered it very well. Basically, the warming of the Earth causes ice to melt at the poles, and this influx of fresh water short-circuits the Gulf Stream and other ocean currents that moderate climate around the world.

There isn't much evidence that the Earth has even come out of the Ice Age cycle yet. There have been at least 5 glacial advances over the past 2 million yrs, between each were warm periods of 10,000-20,000 years. We could very well see another glacial advance in the next few thousand yrs. Maybe we'll just speed it up a bit?

[jus_the_facts]

22. the end is f'king nigh....and nobody really cares much either...

....this is THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE THERE IS...yet because we're ALL guilty of continuing the destruction by driving...flying...etc..and because the powers that be refuse to do anything at all about it as it's been known for decades the result of our gross negligence of the enviornment...ahh well just laugh and joke all you like while you still can I guess...won't be a whole helluva lot longer before the shit hits the fan I'm afraid. :evilfrown:

[Lorien]

34. I agree

sadly, many DUers turn into lockstep freepers on environmental issues. Limbaugh and company have triumphed with their "enviromentalists are bleeding heart fruitcakes" meme-if you care about the place where you live, and what to avoid extiction, well, then, you're just some tree hugging save-the-seals immature freak. Grow ups vote for economic growth and saving money and bigger McMansions and Hummers, if the other species of the world and our ecosystems pay the price, well hey, they get outta our fucking way because we NEED that Goddam mega mall, dammit! Working WITH the environment and preserving it takes thought and planning, and that kinda shit is for suckers! Live fast, consume more, die. It's our all Amercan way! YEEEHAWWW!

:evilfrown:

[kerouac]

24. GOP wants to get rid of CA & NY

Maybe the GOP thinks Global Warming will help them in future elections by submerging California and New York... they'll do anything to keep people from getting to the polls. Can you imagine what a Gondola ride to the polling place will cost in Manhattan?

[foo_bar]

25. New York will just build higher

but California is an archipelago waiting to happen

[AndyTiedye]

33. We've Got More Mountains Here in CA than in NY

and even the coastlines are usually high cliffs.

[demconfive]

37. maybe...

But Florida is going down first! Ahh, poetic justice.

[Prisoner_Number_Six]

26. At least the worldwide water shortage will disappear...

:shrug: :beer:

[amazona]

27. not so sure

My impression is that much of the world's water supply would be contaminated. I could be wrong though. I am naturally opposed to the lack of action because Louisiana is one of the states slated to end up underwater. Apparently the rest of the nation has no idea of how much of their seafood, and how much of the U.S. remaining wetlands, are in Louisiana. We won't be appreciated until we are lost.

There has to be a way for the nations and states affected, or the families of those who have already been killed or left homeless, to bring suit against the nations and corporations that are refusing to act. I thought I read some time ago that the Marshall Islands were going to try to bring a complaint because their entire nation will be underwater. Never heard any more about it though. Bringing a lawsuit may sound petty...but money is the only language the profiteers understand. The auto industry alone is a disgrace...we could have had much better average mileage years ago simply by refusing to promote or manufacture SUVs.

[Catherine Vincent]

28. Waterworld?

I think I need to go rent that movie again.

[truthisfreedom]

29. it was a bad movie, and it would make a bad reality.

personally, i think it's time to buy inexpensive property on high ground.

[Fovea]

30. Climate effects way far from the ocean will also cause problems

http://65.64.114.185/7leveesReport/7leveesMeetingPersonalResponse.htm

Here in the heartland is a major problem waiting to occur.

[Matilda]

38. This is an article by George Monbiot written a few months ago.

He explained what global warming means in a way that's easy for
non-scientific pepole like me to understand:

Climate change of this magnitude will devastate the Earth's productivity. New research in Australia suggests that the amount of water reaching the rivers will decline up to four times as fast as the percentage reduction of rainfall in dry areas. This, alongside the disappearance of the glaciers, spells the end of irrigated agriculture. Winter flooding and the evaporation of soil moisture in the summer will exert similar effects on rain fed farming. Like crops, humans will simply wilt in some of the hotter parts of the world: the 1,500 deaths in India through heat exhaustion this summer may prefigure the necessary evacuation, as temperatures rise, of many of the places currently considered habitable. There is no chance of continuity here; somehow we must persuade our dreamselves to confront the end of life as we know it.

Here's the link to the reprint in Common Dreams:

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0812-08.htm