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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:28 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 15 September
Friday September 15, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 859 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2088 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1794 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1755
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.


AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 14, 2006

Dow... 11,527.39 -15.93 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq... 2,228.73 +1.06 (+0.05%)
S&P 500... 1,316.28 -1.79 (-0.14%)
Gold future... 586.00 -10.30 (-1.73%)
30-Year Bond 4.92% +0.02 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.79% +0.03 (+0.59%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government






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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg
CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE GOLD BUG'S SOUL

The vicious correction in precious metals-related stocks has been especially disheartening for fundamentally minded gold bugs because it occurred concurrently with a rally in stocks. Not only was short term money lost by holding precious metals stocks, but short term opportunity was also lost by missing a rally in stocks. I’m figuring that about now, investor gold bugs need some chicken soup for their soul. (No such soothing is provided for short-term speculators – it is even rumored that they have no soul!) So look on the bright side, because the reasons to hang in there and stay long precious metals are many.

The Decoupling of Gold and Stocks

Remember last winter and early spring when you were doing well with all of your gold stocks and your account value was rising? Didn’t it bother you that your neighbors were making similar gains in the US stock market? As a contrarian, weren’t you a bit perturbed that while you did your homework which told you that paper currencies around the world were going to lose value, your next door neighbor was doing just as well by acting on stock tips from low brows on TV? Well, in recent weeks something positive happened in this regard. That is, the behavior of stocks and gold decoupled. Now they no longer act in the same manner, and precious metals are free to go in opposite directions as stocks. With your account balance hurting and your neighbor crowing louder than ever since stocks recently went up while precious metals went down, there is a bright side, and that is the recent decoupling of stocks from gold. When reality sets in (it always does), precious metals will rise while stocks will fall.

-cut-

Bonds and the Inverted Yield Curve

The rally in bonds and the inverted yield curve suggests that there are deflationary pressures in the economy, and an economic slow down is in progress. Even though it is not being emphasized in the normal business news channels, there is strong anecdotal evidence of an economic slowdown. AutoNation CEO, Mike Jackson articulated this clearly and concisely on CNBC’s Squawk Box Wednesday morning.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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orwell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
40. The problem with the coupling/decoupling observations...
...is that it can never be known if/when traditional relationships will be in effect or not. They are effectively useless as a forecasting tool.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Reports-a-plenty
8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM CPI Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Sep
Briefing Forecast 20.0
Market Expects 14.0
Prior 10.3

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug
Briefing Forecast 82.4%
Market Expects 82.5%
Prior 82.4%

9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep
Briefing Forecast 84.0
Market Expects 83.5
Prior 82.0
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. 8:30 reports tumble in:
8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 41.0 VS 44.3 AUG.

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 14.0 VS 19.8 IN AUG

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 13.8 VS REV 11.0 IN AUG.

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. FOOD PRICES UP 0.4%, MOST SINCE JAN.

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. AUG. REAL WEEKLY EARNINGS FALL 0.5%

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. MEDICAL CARE PRICES UP 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. OWNER EQUIVALENT RENT UP 0.3%

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. HOUSING PRICES UP 0.2%

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. ENERGY PRICES UP 0.3%

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. CPI UP 3.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR, MOST IN 5 YEARS

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. CORE CPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUG. CPI UP 0.2% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. U.S. Aug CPI, core CPI up 0.2% (see! there's NO inflation!)
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE3AE9CCA%2D0984%2D4BD2%2D87B3%2DEAC5B7D71404%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Consumer price inflation moderated in August as gasoline and home ownership costs rose at a slower pace, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2% in August after a 0.4% gain in July, while prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% for the second straight month. The 0.2% gain in the core CPI matched expectations on Wall Street. The headline CPI came in one tenth of a percentage point below expectations. The core CPI is now up 2.8% in the past year, the biggest gain since December 2001. Energy prices rose just 0.3% in August after rising 2.9% in July. Owners' equivalent rent - which accounts for 23.4% of the CPI - rose just 0.3% in August after three months at 0.4% and one at 0.6%.
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RawMaterials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #16
27. Bonds gain on inflation reading
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bond prices and the dollar rose Friday after a key inflation gauge offered no big surprises, soothing investors worried about next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

The 10-year Treasury note rose 4/32, or $1.25 on a $1,000 note, to yield 4.78 percent, down from 4.79 late Thursday.

The 30-year bond gained 7/32, or $2.18 on a $1,000 bond, to yield 4.90 percent, down from 4.92 the previous session. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The five-year note added two ticks to yield 4.73 percent, while the two-year note held steady, yielding 4.83 percent.

The Labor Department said its core consumer price index, a closely watched inflation measure that excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent in August, matching expectations. (Full story)

The report offered Treasury investors an encouraging sign that inflation may be easing after several months of troubling gains. Bond investors loathe inflation, which erodes the value of their fixed-interest paying investments.

The consumer price report also reinforced expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. At the Fed's last meeting, central bank policy makers left the target for a key interest rate unchanged after hiking rates 17 straight times since June 2004.

In currency trading, the euro bought $1.2668, down from $1.2719 late Thursday. The dollar rose to ¥117.59, up from ¥117.55 the previous session.


http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/15/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Sept New York factory activity at 13.8 vs 11.0 in August
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B69D76341%2DEB93%2D47C2%2D9595%2D8A67BAA99BF5%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing activity in the New York area held steady at a moderate rate in September, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday.
The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 13.8 in September. The index had fallen to 11.0 in August after hitting 29.0 in June.

The increase was in line with economists forecasts according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it's seen as an early forecast of the national Institute for Supply Management factory survey due out in two weeks. In August, the ISM factory index inched lower to 54.5% from 54.7% in the previous month.

But the correlations between the regional surveys and the ISM have weakened over the past year.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #2
20. 9:15 Reports:
9:15 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES UNREVISED 0.4%

9:15 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUGUST UTILITY OUTPUT DROPS BY 0.8%

9:15 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUGUST CAPACITY UTILIZATION 82.4% VS. 82.5% EXPECTED

9:15 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. AUGUST INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -0.1% VS. 0.2% GAIN EXPECTED
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. U.S. August industrial output -0.1% vs. 0.2% gain expected
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8C1EC18D%2DB2E3%2D4EE7%2DBAD7%2D4CE82AA0B5D6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A drop in utilities' output caused by moderating temperatures helped push down industrial production in August, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Industrial output fell by 0.1%, following an unrevised 0.4% gain in July, the Fed said. The decline was led by a 0.8% drop in production at utilities. Utilities' output rose by a revised 1% in July. Capacity utilization at utilities fell back in August, to 88.5% from 89.3% in July. Overall, capacity utilization dropped slightly in August, to 82.4% from 82.7% in July.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #2
23. Sept UMich Consumer Sentiment at 84.4 vs 82.0 in Aug (We're HAPPY!)
9:48 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. SEPT. UMICH SENTIMENT ABOVE CONSENSUS 83.6

9:48 AM ET 9/15/06 U.S. SEPT. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 84.4 VS 82.0 IN AUG
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. U.S. Sept. UMich consumer sentiment 84.4 vs 82.0 in Aug.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2CAB7E38%2D330D%2D4FD4%2DB9A3%2DDEFBBD3F0D09%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment improved in September, according to researchers at the University of Michigan on Friday. The consumer sentiment index rose to 84.4 in September from 82.0 in August. The increase was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to rise to 83.6. The improvement all came from expectations of the economy six months ahead. The expectations index rose to 77.1 from 68.0 in the previous month. This is the highest since January. The current conditions index fell to 95.7 in September from 103.8 in August. This is the lowest level since October.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:43 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. Morning Marketeers,
Edited on Fri Sep-15-06 10:54 AM by AnneD
:donut: and lurkers. O.K. I'm going to have to call BS on this consumer sentiment report. I don't know WHAT mental ward they are surveying, but folks around here in Houston aren't happy at all. I wonder about their sample size, the questions, etc. There seems to be such a cognitive dissonance here. The MI. area is about to have even more layoffs across the board (but not in the board room of course). But what do I know...I'm just a consumer, a consumer that is a tad better of than some but very worried about our economic future.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.....
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:42 AM
Response to Original message
3. Oil holds near $63 on ample winter fuel stocks
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil hovered around $63 a barrel on Friday, near its lowest levels since March, as ample U.S. fuel stocks looked set to meet winter heating demand in the world's biggest consumer.

U.S. crude was unchanged at $63.22 a barrel at 0948 GMT after falling 64 cents on Thursday.

London Brent crude was down 4 cents to $63.50.

U.S. natural gas futures sank to a two-year low on Thursday after a surprise rise in stocks. Natural gas stocks are over 12 percent above the average for the last five years.

Distillate stocks, which include heating oil, also jumped more than expected and were well above the five-year average, according to the U.S. government.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:44 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. BP seeks OK to restart part of Prudhoe
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Oil giant BP PLC has asked permission from the U.S. Department of Transportation to resume production on the eastern half of Prudhoe Bay so it can perform pipeline tests.

BP submitted the application Wednesday, saying it wants production restarted on the field so it can conduct more thorough tests — using so-called cleaning and inspection "pig" devices — on the eastern transit line to determine if it can be used to move oil to the trans-Alaska oil pipeline. The eastern half of Prudhoe Bay was closed last month over fears of leaks and corrosion, cutting production from the nation's largest oil field by about half.

"This submission, we believe, helps them make an informed decision about whether or not we can proceed with maintenance pigging," BP spokesman Daren Beaudo said Thursday.

The application is being analyzed by engineers for its thoroughness and to see if it addresses safety concerns, a spokesman at the DOT's pipeline safety agency said Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060915/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_field_2
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:46 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Crude oil prices flat in Asia trading
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Crude oil prices were flat Friday after natural gas prices plunged to a two-year low overnight, and supply concerns eased after Nigerian oil workers prematurely ended a strike in Africa's largest producer.

Benchmark light, sweet crude for October on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 2 cents to $63.20 a barrel in Asian electronic trading hours Friday. The front-month contract fell 75 cents in New York floor trade, closing 1.2 percent down on increased selling.

The "selling was about natural gas prices," said analyst Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading Corp. "The Nigerian news was another reason to sell, it's hard to find anything to push prices higher at the moment."

On Thursday, October natural gas futures fell $0.557 to settle at $4.892 per 1,000 cubic feet on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The last time front-month natural gas futures settled below $5 was Sept. 16, 2004.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060915/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_53
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:49 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Bourses cautiously positive as oil slips
European bourses started cautiously on Friday, edging into positive territory as crude oil slid near to $63 a barrel and investors awaited inflation data for indications on the outlook for global growth.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.1 per cent to 1,369.91, with the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt 0.2 per cent higher at 5,921.22, the CAC-40 in Paris 0.3 per cent ahead at 5,136.91 and the FTSE 100 in London just negative at 5,876.1.

US stocks dipped slightly on Thursday after retail sales data rekindled inflationary fears and pulled the main indices away from four-month highs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060915/bs_ft/fto091520060513347317
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #3
35. Oct Crude @ $62.55 bbl - NatGas @ $4.95 mln btus
11:49 AM ET 9/15/06 OCT. CRUDE FELL 62 CENTS TO $62.55/BRL AFTER A $62.05 LOW

11:49 AM ET 9/15/06 OCT. NATURAL GAS UP 5.8 CENTS, OR 1.2%, AT $4.95/MLN BTUS

11:49 AM ET 9/15/06 OCT. UNLEADED GAS UP 0.5%; OCT. HEATING OIL FALLS 0.5%
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #3
42. Oct Crude closes @ $63.33 bbl - NatGas @ $4.982 mln btus
2:55 PM ET 9/15/06 OCT. CRUDE RECOVERS FROM ITS LOWEST LEVEL OF THE YEAR

2:55 PM ET 9/15/06 OCT. CRUDE UP 11 CENTS TO CLOSE AT $63.33/BRL

2:55 PM ET 9/15/06 OCT. CRUDE ENDS THE WEEK WITH A LOSS OF 4.4%

2:54 PM ET 9/15/06 OCT. NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT $4.982/MLN BTUS, UP 9 CENTS

2:54 PM ET 9/15/06 OCT. NATURAL GAS ENDS THE WEEK WITH A LOSS OF 12.2%
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:54 AM
Response to Original message
7. Ford offers buyouts to hourly workers
DETROIT — Ford Motor Co. will offer buyout and early retirement plans to all of its hourly U.S. employees — more than 75,000 of them — as part of a broad restructuring plan aimed at cutting its costs in light of slumping sales.

Ford confirmed the plans Thursday after union officials disclosed the company would make the buyout offers of up to $140,000 each to workers.

“There are great opportunities for any of the members who choose to accept them,” said Tim Donovan, president of UAW Local 2000 at the Ohio Assembly Plant in Avon Lake. “I think we’ll see quite a few people take the incentive packages.”

The automaker had about 82,000 workers represented by the United Auto Workers at the end of last year, but about 6,500 have taken previous buyout and early retirement offers made mainly at plants slated for closure, company spokeswoman Marcey Evans said. The new offer would cover the remaining unionized workers.
Nearly 800 local Ford workers accepted buyout packages that Ford offered following the December closing of the Lorain Assembly plant. Workers with 30 or more years of service were given retirement pensions, $35,000 and health benefits, Ford officials have said.

Donovan said Thursday he expected this latest buyout offer to be Ford’s last.

http://www.chroniclet.com/Daily%20Pages/091506head9.html
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:16 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. what will move the markets is it suspended its dividends to shareholders
Ford to cut $5 bln costs, third of salaried staff

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-15T112533Z_01_N15375323_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD-UPDATE-1.XML

DETROIT, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 2 U.S. automaker, said on Friday it would cut annual costs by about $5 billion by the end of 2008 and reduce salaried staff by one-third, or 14,000 jobs, as part of an accelerated restructuring.

The automaker said its troubled North American auto operations would not be profitable on a full-year basis before 2009, a year later than first projected.

Ford also said it will suspend its quarterly dividend, further reduce capacity, and ramp up new product introductions.

The new plan, Ford's third restructuring in five years, replaces the initial "Way Forward" plan, which was announced in January and called for cutting up to 30,000 jobs and closing 14 plants by 2012.

Following Ford's $1.4 billion loss in the first half of the year amid declining sales of its high-margin pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles, the automaker promised a more aggressive restructuring.

The company and the United Auto Workers union said Thursday Ford is offering buyout packages to all of its 75,000 U.S. factory workers.

...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #7
33. Ford to slash 14,000 salaried jobs, offer union buyouts
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B897099E0%2D66F6%2D4419%2D89AE%2DC016530C7903%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Ford Motor Co. said Friday it's cutting its salaried work force by one-third -- or 14,000 jobs -- and offering buyouts to all 75,000 union workers in a massive restructuring to cut $5 billion in costs.

In a dramatic acceleration of the auto giant's "Way Forward" program to combat declining market share and higher gasoline prices, Ford (F : 7.86, -1.23, -13.5% ) also said it will suspend its quarterly dividend payout and forecast a 26% cut in production by 2008.

"It is now clear we were too optimistic in January about our ability to stabilize our market share," said Mark Fields, president of Ford's America's division. "We believe these changes, which are massive, are enough to put us back on track.

Ford's shares fell more than 9% in early trading as some analysts said the latest steps weren't aggressive enough to deal with the company's vastly weaker standing in the automobile industry. Also see Market Snapshot.

General Motors Corp. (GM : 31.92, -1.04, -3.2% ) made a similar move to pare its work force earlier this year.

"The business model that sustained us in North America for decades no longer works. We are dealing with the world as it is, not as it was 10 years ago," Fields said.

...more...


10 years ago - hmmmm.... 1996 - 2 years after Newt's Contract on America .... :think:
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reprobate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #7
36. Is it at all possible that this is intended to kill the unions,


and that they will then rehire non-union workers?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 05:59 AM
Response to Original message
8. Gotta run folks.
:donut: :donut: :donut:
Have a wonderful Friday watching the Casino spin. Also wear some goggles when looking at those charts. They're really pointy. Could put an eye out.

See you Monday!

Ozy :hi:
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
9. daily dollar watch
Edited on Fri Sep-15-06 07:53 AM by UpInArms
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.93 Change +0.27 (+0.32%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US CPI Ahead Of Next Week's FOMC Meeting

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_CPI_1158271707916.html

US Consumer Price Index (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.2% 3.9%
Previous: 0.4% 4.1%

Outlook: Inflation in the world’s biggest economy is expected to have cooled in the month of August, which if true would provide the Federal Open Market Committee legitimate proof that its predictions of softer price growth with cooling consumer spending is working. The consensus amongst economists is for the commonly tracked CPI gauge to slow to 3.9 percent annual growth. These predictions are consistent with the slow down in the year-over-year measure of the import price index, the first of three inflationary reports released by the government. Cheaper prices for consumers in the month of August would likely rely on the marked drop in energy prices, specifically gasoline, in the latter half of the month. However, with many component import groups still rising their prices, some analysts expect the US business base to follow suit and try to pass their higher costs onto the consumer. If the CPI eases in the August reading, the Fed will have greater scope to stick to its plan to allow a slowing economy drag inflation down naturally.

Previous: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent over the month of July as energy prices reached record highs. For the month, petroleum based products as a group were driven higher by crude prices reaching a fresh record. While gasoline prices, the form of energy inflation that weighs on the consumer basket, was not setting its own records in most areas, it was still near such levels. The primary effects of this single product group were obvious when looking to the core figure, stripped of energy, which actually slowed its pace for the first month in five. Within the Labor Department’s statistics, the gasoline component, itself a part of the broader transportation group, grew 5.3 percent in July. While most of the remaining sub-gauges were all slightly higher, the most effectual decline came from apparel group, which fell 1.2 percent.


US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (SEP P) (15:45 GMT; 11:45 EST)

Consensus: 83.7
Previous: 82.0

Outlook: Consumers are expected to be more optimistic in their outlooks for September, according to economists’ predictions, with higher wages, falling gasoline prices and an improving foreign policy rapport paving the way. Risks towards a surprise contraction in this read looms large as the steady and sharp drop in the housing market is still a very real weight on American’s available wealth. However, the aforementioned bright spots could be the right combination to lift consumers’ spirits. Though employment has moderated from the strong hiring trends seen earlier this year and into last year, a jobless rate still near a five-year low and persistent wage growth will keep the fire going. In August, average hourly earnings rose 3.9 percent year-over-year, even as the more volatile monthly number slowed. Perhaps more immediately visible to most Americans though is the marked improvement in relations with the Middle East and its close tie to energy prices. With the Lebanon/Israel skirmish ending in a peaceful way and gasoline prices sinking off of near record highs, a shock to the global economy from extraordinary events seem to be less likely. All in all, a renewed confidence could put the desire to spend back in the consumers mind which would further facilitate the Fed’s predictions of a soft landing in the US growth slowdown and a cooling of inflation.

Previous: Consumer confidence eased to its lowest level lowest level in four months in August. Though the 82.0 print reported in the final report was much better than the 78.7 figure initially reported, the concerns of gasoline prices, inflation and Iraq were obviously taking their toll. Gasoline prices in the beginning of the month were still hovering near record highs, producing the large difference in the flash estimate and its later revision. Most Americans expected the price at the pump to remain high for at least the rest of the month as problems in the Middle East continued to buoy prices that were already facilitated by demand due to the remaining week’s of the driving season. Another load for the consumer to bear for the month are interest rates. Though the Fed had stopped its steady succession of quarter point hikes the month before, the steady 5.25 percent over night rate was no consolation to shoppers who were in the market for big ticket items or even housing.

...more at link...


(edited for typo)
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. Dollar loses strength after CPI
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBC8BAFE8%2D8CD9%2D4FEE%2D9A99%2D97B117324FEA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar gave up gains against the euro, and fell versus the yen early Friday after the Labor Department said consumer price inflation moderated in August as gasoline and home ownership costs rose at a slower pace. The consumer price index increased 0.2% in August, while prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% for the second straight month. The 0.2% gain in the core CPI matched expectations, while the headline CPI came in one tenth of a percentage point below expectations. Separately, manufacturing activity in the New York area held steady at a moderate rate in September, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 13.8 in September, in line with forecasts. The euro was last at $1.2692 vs. $1.2673 before data. The dollar traded at 117.4 yen vs. 117.6 yen.
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NC_Nurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
11. Great toon!
Thanks, Ozy!
Hope y'all have a good one - gotta run also! :hi:
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
12. Marsh & McLennan to cut 750 jobs, save $350 mln
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BEE782DB5%2D73E5%2D4DA3%2DAD9A%2D4309A77066BE%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Marsh & McLennan (MMC) said Friday it would cut 750 jobs out of its work force of about 55,000 as part of a move to save $350 million by the end of 2008. The company would take about $225 million in charges as part of the plan. Marsh & McLennan expects to record approximately 15% of the charges this year, about 55% in 2007, and 30% in 2008. The insurance and mutual fund company said it plans to cut costs on real estate, human resources and information technology. "While these savings include managed attrition and staff reductions...the majority of the savings will be achieved from more efficient processes," CEO Michael G. Cherkasky said in a statement.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:24 AM
Response to Original message
13. High Impact Layoffs
(scroll down just a small bit - the rest of the page is enough to make you weep as it recaps the past month)

http://www.totalbankruptcy.com/mass_layoffs_across_us.htm

The projected cuts at Intel Corp. have taken another leap, with the company now anticipating that it will eliminate a total of 10,500 jobs. Intel says that about 5,000 of the layoffs have already occurred or been announced specifically. The company estimates that an additional 2,500 employees will be laid off by the end of 2006, with the remaining layoffs taking place next year.

The Ford Motor Co. cutbacks claim more victims as the Clarksville Robert Bosch Corp. eliminates 60 positions. The plant, which currently employs about 420 people, makes automotive braking systems, and Ford is one of the company's key customers. Cleveland-based Eaton Corp., which manufactures controls for auto transmissions and windows, announced that 53 workers-about 20% of the employees at the company's Three Rivers plant-would be laid off as of September 15.

Hewlett-Packard's latest round of layoffs will bring the total workforce reduction to 15,300 by October 31. That's slightly more than 10% of HP's workforce, which had already been reduced by about 35,000 employees between 2000 and 2005.

Eljer Manufacturing will lay off about 200 workers at its Ford City plant within the next year. Those jobs will be relocated to Mexico, China or South America. The layoffs will eliminate about 2/3 of Eljer's workforce in Ford City, and will occur in stages as the company outsources.

RadioShack laid off 400 employees from its Fort Worth, Texas headquarters during the last week of August-by email.

The Ford Motor Co. production cuts continue to send ripples through the manufacturing industry. In addition to cuts already announced at Ford and BorgWarner Automotive, Navistar International, which makes diesel engines for Ford's F-Series Super Duty pick-up trucks, announced the elimination of 380 positions. Meanwhile, Dana Corporation, a company that manufactures frames for Ford and Lincoln SUV's, announced that it would lay off 125 employees in its Elizabethtown plant. Dana is also laying off about 100 workers in Ontario, Canada, and earlier eliminated 60 positions at its Mitchell, Indiana plant.

DaimlerChrysler AG laid off 103 employees at its Kokomo, Indiana plants in August. The company plans to scale back production of large vehicles like the Ram, Durango, and Dakota due to rising gas prices and the resulting decreased demand for large vehicles.

...more...
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #13
43. Good site...
UIA. This is what I am talking about. There are so many layoffs from good paying jobs and not much to replace them. And they list the larger companies. What agbout the smaller ones that go out of business or scale down staff and don't have to report their layoffs. That's why I call BS on that consumer sentiment report.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #43
44. I just saw that unleaded gasoline was selling for $2.23 gal locally
hmmm...

Looks like the frightened GOPpiggies are getting their friends (that did not have to testify under oath) to help them out a bit.

:eyes:

and look at those markets just fly up, up and away - with all that enthusiasm, I can only guess that this past weekend out there attempting to do commerce was merely an aberration - that my sales were off 70% from last year - and last year was off 35% from the year before and the year before was off and the year before that -

pretty soon I will have to pay folks to cart my shit away :shrug:
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. I hear ya....
these economic numbers are not making ANY sense at all compared to what I see and what folks tell me. It's like the barn is on fire and the horse has a cover over it's head because it is easier to lead them around. The warning signs are every where-can't miss them but everything is calm, everything is great. Makes you want to climb to the top of a mountain scream at the top of your lungs for these people to wake up. I have the feeling things are being manipulated intentionally to keep folks from panicing. Eventually people will put it all togather and the gov won't be able to finesse it any more.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
14. DaimlerChrysler halting lines at two plants next week: Detroit News
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BF9241265%2D5DBC%2D42A2%2D86CC%2D4B31D7F9CB28%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Daimler Chrysler, (DCX), in a push to reach its goal of trimming SUV and truck production because of dampened sales, is halting lines next week at its Jefferson North plant in Detroit and its Warren truck plant, The Detroit News reported in its Friday editions.

There will be no production of the Jeep Commander and Grand Cherokee SUVs at Jefferson North for one month, while the Warren truck plant is slated to go down for two weeks.

Chrysler officials declined to comment.

Newspaper Web Site: http://detnews.com
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RawMaterials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 08:12 AM
Response to Original message
19. Copper dulls over 1.5%

Tokyo - Shanghai copper futures dropped more than 1.5% to a two-week low on Friday, pressured by weakness in London Metal Exchange prices amid growing concerns over the outlook for global economic growth.

Both Shanghai metals futures and LME prices edged down as falls in energy, gold and other commodities also hurt sentiment for industrial metals, with traders closely watching the outcome of a series of US economic data due later in the day.

snip..


"Funds are shifting out from commodities in general and base metals are no exception," said Naohiro Niimura, a vice president at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

Niimura said the market is focusing on US economic data, including consumer prices, to determine the outlook for copper and other base metals.

snip..

Weak energy prices also hurt sentiment for base metals.

Traders said investment funds are expected to be keen on lightening their positions in base metals and other commodities ahead of the end of the third quarter, with falls in energy accelerating sell-offs in commodities.

US crude oil futures were little changed above $63 a barrel on Friday, after falling for the eighth time in nine sessions a day earlier, as uncertainties over Iran's nuclear row offset the impact of ample US oil supplies


http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/markets/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=markets&ArticleID=1518-21_1999149
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
22. 9:44 EST happy numbers and blather
Dow 11,594.22 +66.83 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,240.00 +11.27 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,322.17 +5.89 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.765 -0.028 (-0.58%)


NYSE Volume 494,393,000
Nasdaq Volume 540,881,000

09:40 am : Stocks break out of yesterday's holding pattern in noticeable fashion as more tame inflation data provide further proof that the economy is on track for the much-desired soft landing. Earlier, the Labor Dept. reported that core CPI rose 0.2% in August for a second straight month after four straight 0.3% increases. Even though the core rate merely matched economists' forecasts and leaves a 2.8% annual rate -- the biggest gain since December 2001 which is well above the Fed's comfort zone of 1.75-2.00%, a steady dose of 0.2% gains confirms a moderating from the recent uptrend, assuaging the worst of inflation fears and providing a good chance that the trend will ease in the months ahead and keep the Fed on hold with its tightening efforts when it meets next week. DJ30 +66.19 NASDAQ +14.95 SP500 +6.50

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.2. The stage remains set for stocks to open sharply higher as investors sift another piece of economic news. August Industrial Production fell 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) while Capacity Utilization checked in at 82.4% (consensus 82.5%), but investors remain more focused on today's dovish core-CPI since it confirms an easing from the recent uptrend in inflationary pressures.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.2. Bullish bias persists in pre-market trading, and as such, expectations for a higher start for the cash market remain firmly intact. More optimism on the inflation front, providing further evidence that another rate hike may not be necessary, is restoring investor confidence in stocks across the board, except among the auto makers. The group is under pressure this morning after Ford Motor (F) said it won't see its North American auto unit return to profitability before 2009 while Daimler Chrysler (DCX) lowered its operating profit forecast for full-year 2006.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.8. The futures market, which was strengthening ahead of CPI data, has gotten an additional boost following another tame read on inflation and now suggests stocks will extend this week's winning streak. Total CPI rose 0.2% in August (consensus 0.2%) while the closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, also matching forecasts, reflective of an easing in consumer inflation which further strengthens the credibility of a Bernanke-led Fed that may again forgo a rate hike when policy makers reconvene next week. Separately, the NY Empire State Index checked in at 13.8 (consensus 14.0). Bonds, which were unchanged ahead of the data, have also caught a bid as the 10-yr note is now up 4 ticks to yield 4.77%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Early indications are pointing to a relatively flat start for stocks, which is not surprising considering the plethora of economic reports scheduled for this morning. First up at 8:30 ET will be August CPI, which is the day's most closely-watched report since it will provide a more telling signal as to the direction of Fed policy and has the potential to move stocks and bonds in noticeable fashion. If the core rate checks in at 0.2%, the market should be fine since another tame read on inflation at the consumer level supports the current belief that the Fed is not going to raise rates again this year. A reading of 0.3%, however, could rattle the market, given the more optimistic view on inflation that has been priced into the markets of late.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #22
25. 10:00 EST numbers and bye!
Dow 11,586.38 +58.99 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,237.66 +8.93 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,321.74 +5.46 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.773 -0.02 (-0.42%)


NYSE Volume 500,039,000
Nasdaq Volume 551,572,000

Gotta run!

:hi:
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RawMaterials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
26.  3-Gold steadies after 3-month lows, market nervous


LONDON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Gold eroded losses in Europe on Friday after dipping overnight to its lowest in nearly three months on weaker oil, but investors remained wary because of the metal's persistent decline this week.

Analysts saw prices touching further lows in the short term and trading in a range before resuming an upward path. The metal has shed 10.6 percent in just more than a week.

"This has been quite a shock to a number of people. It's the second big drop this year and it will take time for sentiment to recover," said Stephen Briggs, economist at SG Corporate and Investment Banking.

"The dollar is not declining despite what everybody is expecting, geopolitical tension is much less pronounced than it was and because oil has declined, there is slight disenchantment with commodities," he added.

snip..

Gold has lost more than 20 percent since hitting a 26-year high of $730 in mid-May, when investors poured money into the as a hedge against global tensions, including those over U.S.-Iran relations, high oil prices and dollar instability.

Oil hovered around $63 a barrel, weighed down by bulging natural gas and heating oil inventories in the United States and the suspension of an oil workers' strike in Nigeria.

"People are nervous. They throw gold away because they don't know what's going on. There's a panic liquidation. The next levels that people are looking at are $550, $545 and $530," said a dealer in Singapore.

"But I don't think metal players are that negative. I don't think we are going to hit $500 and below it. That kind of scenario is not present at the moment. People are just frightened by the speed of the fall in prices," he said.



http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=74ffb012-7ca2-4781-8a66-50a12fd3ed5e
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Sammy Pepys Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #26
32. This is what gold does....
And why you should have some but not too much invested in it.
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mojavekid Donating Member (993 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #26
37. Gold 'Correction'? Prudent Squirrel

Gold 'Correction'?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/laird/sep142006.html

snip...

Short term gold to November 1 2006

There has been quite some debate recently about a pending gold ‘correction’. Since last week, gold corrected about $50. For some weeks, I have been predicting a drop in price below $600, and have been writing that the main cause will be a weakening commodity complex that will spill into gold. I present a thesis here that gold is not ‘correcting’. Gold is reflecting an actual major macro economic change to recession in the US. The context of the term ‘correction’ in this present gold market is off base completely.

snip...

I am a long term gold bull!

I wish to point out that I am a gold bull. There has been some controversy about my recent short term gold bearish articles, which clearly anticipated gold’s present $50 correction, in spite of the normally seasonal gold bullish forces that would be at hand at this time of year. However, just because I happened to have forecast every major gold drop this year (as I recall), that does not mean that I am not gold bullish. I simply see macroeconomic reasons for some gold weakness short and mid term. Longer term, over a year, I foresee gold to have to deal eventually with a longer term lack of confidence in the USD and in other fiat currencies such as the Yen.


more at link..

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RawMaterials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
28. 11:05 Numbers and Blather

Dow 11592.54 +65.15 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 2240.75 +12.02 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1322.57 +6.29 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 0.476% -0.03

NYSE Volume 1,171,190,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,093,478,000


11:00 am : Buyers remain in control of the early action as the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Of the eight sectors trading higher, Technology is pacing the way with the morning's biggest gain (+0.8%), fueled by strong follow-through in bellwether Microsoft (MSFT 26.89 +0.56) and an 11.5% surge in Adobe Systems (ADBE 37.50 +3.85), which topped analysts' expectations and offered reassuring guidance last night. The Financials sector (+0.7%), though, is providing even more notable leadership as rate-sensitive banks (+0.6%) and brokers (+1.2%) embrace a yield on the 10-year note (4.75%) that has fallen nearly 50 basis points since the bond market rally began at the end of June. DJ30 +63.31 NASDAQ +10.41 SP500 +5.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1107/1569/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 986/1995/1.0 bln

10:30 am : Indices regain their upward push as oil prices slipping below $63 a barrel for the first time since March provide further proof that total CPI could post some nice low numbers in the months ahead. Crude oil futures for October delivery, which expire today, are now down 1.1% at $62.50 a barrel amid signs that oil consumption will continue to ease going into the winter months with ample supplies of heating oil on hand. Oil is off 14% this month alone and down for the ninth time in ten days. DJ30 +78.02 NASDAQ +17.08 SP500 +8.01 XOI -0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1045/1513/912 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1016/1863/898 mln

http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:43 AM
Response to Original message
30. PIEHOLE ALERT: Dimson fears cell at Hague
11:23 AM ET 9/15/06 BUSH: CONGRESS MUST ACT QUICKLY TO AUTHORIZE INTEL PROGRAMS
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #30
34. Dimson begs for cell in mental institution
11:57 AM ET 9/15/06 BUSH: ECONOMY A 'DETERMINATIVE ISSUE' IN ELECTIONS

11:56 AM ET 9/15/06 BUSH: ECONOMY STRONG DUE TO TAX CUTS, FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #34
39. Dimson requires cell at a mental institution
witness erratic mood swing at Rose garden press conference (David Gregory and Helen Thomas questioning). Dancing like a spider on a hot skillet.:evilgrin: So satisfying, I had to have a cigarette afterwards:smoke:

http://www.cspan.org/
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
31. GOP Corruption: US Rep Ney (R-Ohio) to plead guilty in corruption case
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-15T142421Z_01_N15405406_RTRIDST_0_CRIME-ABRAMOFF-NEY.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - A Republican congressman has agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy and lying, the first U.S. lawmaker convicted in the political corruption scandal involving disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, court documents showed on Friday.

The plea deal represented a sharp reversal for Ohio Rep. Bob Ney, who had denied any wrongdoing. He was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994 and abandoned his race for re-election last month as the federal investigation intensified into his links to the convicted lobbyist.

According to the plea deal, U.S. Justice Department prosecutors will recommend the 52-year-old Ney be given a 27-month prison sentence. U.S. District Judge Ellen Segal Huvellle scheduled an Oct. 13 hearing for Ney to enter his guilty plea.

The Abramoff scandal and other corruption cases have hurt Republicans as they seek to keep control of the U.S. Congress in the November elections. Abramoff, a former top Washington lobbyist, had close ties to congressional leaders, especially Republicans.


Former Republican House leader Tom DeLay, once one of the most powerful politicians in Washington, resigned after becoming embroiled in the Abramoff scandal. Two of his former aides have pleaded guilty. DeLay has denied any wrongdoing.
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RawMaterials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
38. The bubble in derivatives

Twenty years ago, the total notional sum of derivatives in the entire world was close to zero. At least that is the impression you get from looking at a chart showing the growth of derivatives in the years since. From nothing, the global supply of derivatives has risen faster than the Nasdaq... faster than oil... faster even than prices of Mayfair apartments. Other market bubbles were soap bubbles compared to the Hindenburg of derivatives, which the latest estimates judge to be worth some $236 trillion ­ or about eight times the GDP of the entire planet.

In other words, derivatives make up a bubble larger than the old globe itself.

snip..

Why? Because behind the arcane complexity of derivative contracts are the simple-minded human beings who are at any moment in only one of two positions ­ either long or short. Every contract is a bet. And every bet can go either way.

You might think that this means the whole shebang is a zero-sum proposition. Let them blow up, you might say; the longs and the shorts will offset each other. For every winner there will be a loser... and for every half dozen fools separated from his money there will be a new billionaire with peculiar art in a monstrous mansion in Greenwich.

Alas, that is not the whole story. Derivatives are not a zero-sum game... but a game in which the actual odds themselves follow long patterns of boom and bust. There are, for example, trillions of dollars worth of securities whose value is derived from the US housing market. Fast-talking lenders write adjustable-rate, payment optional mortgages (ARMs) for slow-witted homeowners. Then, they sell the contracts on... whence they are packaged with thousands of others into a mortgage-backed security (MBS). The mortgage backed security is backed by a mortgage. But who backs the mortgage? That would be those sad sacks you read about in the papers, who stretched too far to buy too much house with an ARM far too long and too complicated for them to grasp.

Most of the time, and especially during the long bull market in housing - roughly equal to the bull market in credit derivatives - the payers are ready and able to pay. Sometimes they are not. When they are not... the security of mortgage-backed securities disappears.

America's average homebuyer has not had a real wage increase in 34 years. Instead, he has become upwardly mobile by proxy... piggy-backing on the shiny surfaces of bubbles... in credit... in debt... in housing. But there must come a day when the bubbles take a bath... when the poor homeowner must find another money-tree or miss his mortgage payment.

And when he misses, what a hit he will take! And that will be the day all the bubbles blow up at once­ including the mother of them all... the bubble in derivatives.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner091506.html
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
41. 3:03 EST numbers and blather
Dow 11,579.50 +52.11 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,235.46 +6.73 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,320.89 +4.61 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.798 +0.005 (+0.10%)


NYSE Volume 2,355,696,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,972,843,000

2:30 pm : Market is holding steady at afternoon highs, even as volatile oil prices are now providing less influence on sentiment from an inflation standpoint. What is offering some support, however, is the Energy sector (+0.5%), which is near its best levels of the day as crude oil futures inch into positive territory just before the close of trading on the NYMEX. Schlumberger (SLB 56.40 +1.30) and Devon Energy (DVN 66.30 +1.57) are among the sector's biggest movers attracting the most bargain hunting interest. As of yesterday's close, both stocks were down 4.0% this week. ..OSX +0.7%. ..OIH +0.8%.DJ30 +60.48 NASDAQ +7.99 SP500 +5.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1427/1473/1.88 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1255/1936/2.1 bln

2:00 pm : Stocks regain some momentum since the last update, with spirited leadership coming largely from blue chips. On the Dow, 20 of 30 components are trading higher led by a 2.2% surge Microsoft (MSFT 26.91 +0.58), which is adding a 2.2% advance to yesterday's 1.3% gain and helping the Dow inch its way to within 139 points of record highs. United Technologies (UTX 64.38 +1.38), which raised its share buyback program to $2 bln from $1.5 bln and reaffirmed its full-year EPS outlook earlier ranks a close second among today's winners while General Motors (GM 31.88 -1.08), trading lower in sympathy with the bloodletting in rival Ford Motor (F 7.95 -1.14), is the Dow's biggest laggard.DJ30 +56.99 NASDAQ +6.28 SP500 +4.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1461/1415/1.78 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1282/1893/2.06 bln
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-15-06 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
45. closing numbers and no inflation blather
Dow 11,560.77 +33.38 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,235.59 +6.86 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,319.87 +3.59 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.798 +0.005 (+0.10%)


NYSE Volume 3,168,491,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,520,048,000

With inflation still the key variable in the stock market outlook, another tame reading at the consumer level lent further support for the Fed's much-desired soft landing and helped the major averages close modestly higher Friday.

Before the bell, the Labor Dept. showed that consumer prices rose just 0.2% in August, half the previous month's pace, as gasoline and home ownership costs rose at a slower rate. Providing even more relief on the inflation front and further proof the Fed may again forgo a rate hike at next Wednesday's FOMC meeting, though, was moderation in the more closely watched core rate. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose just 0.2% for a second straight month. That confirmed a moderation from the recent uptrend and assuaged the worst of inflation fears. In turn, it set a positive tone for stocks from start to finish.

Bonds also rallied on the news, initially pushing yields across the curve to multi-month lows. However, when Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig chimed in, as the afternoon session got underway, with an acknowledgment that today's inflation numbers are "good news" but that lower energy prices may support consumer spending and sustain economic growth, nervousness returned to Treasuries and removed some of the optimism tied to a potential rate cut early next year to close bonds relatively unchanged for the day.

The rate-sensitive Financials sector maintained decent momentum inspired by early declines in borrowing costs to pace the day higher among the nine sectors posting gains.

Also providing notable leadership was the Industrials sector, which got a boost from United Technologies (UTX 64.67 +1.67), which raised its share buyback program to $2 bln from $1.5 bln and reaffirmed its full-year EPS outlook. Technology was also in focus after Adobe Systems (ADBE 37.00 +3.35) topped analysts' expectations and offered reassuring guidance. Strong follow-through in Microsoft (MSFT 26.85 +0.52) provided additional sector support that helped investors look past a 12% drubbing in Ford Motor (F 8.02 -1.07).

The auto maker announced its accelerated "Way Forward" restructuring plan, which included the suspension of its dividend and an announcement that the North American unit will not become profitable before 2009. Merrill Lynch subsequently downgrading the stock to sell exacerbated the selling pressure which left it as the day's worst performing S&P 500 constituent.

Telecom (-0.5%) was the only sector failing to take part in today's advance. Aside from the temptation to lock in profits from this year's best performing sector (+21%), an analyst downgrade on Citizens Communications (CZN 13.55 -0.26) led to today's disinterest for Integrated Telecoms -- one of today's worst performing areas.DJ30 +33.38 NASDAQ +6.86 SP500 +3.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1439/1539/2.5 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1343/1929/1.9 bln


Have a great weekend :hi:
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