Pew Poll: Democrats Hold Solid Lead: (50-39% Dem - Bush 37%)

[Mark E. Smith]

Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood

Released: September 14, 2006

As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 levels. Moreover, there are indications that voters are viewing the election through the prism of national issues and concerns. Many more voters see their vote as being against the president than at a comparable point in 1994, and a solid majority says party control of Congress will be a factor in their voting decision.

Voters are expressing strong and consistent anti-Republican attitudes. The GOP lags well behind the Democratic Party on nearly all major issues, including the economy, Iraq, education, health care, the environment and the budget deficit. And the Republicans have lost ground in recent years even on such traditional strengths as terrorism and improving the nation's morality.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=289

[bronxiteforever]

1. Its nice to see this after Tweety tonite

Gleefully invoking the power of the negative ad and how good the GOP are at it. I hope people realize that all they have is negative-this poll seems some tonic to that.

[samsingh]

17. and yet tweety every now and them rails against what bush is doing

the man is stupid.

[KeepItReal]

2. Polls and attitudes mean ZERO. Who votes, how they vote, and who's countin

...if you know *that*, then you know what's gonna happen in November.

[PerceptionManagement]

24. Yea, dont' worry, Diebold will set this right.

Freepers Rejoice!!

[Fluffdaddy]

30. After November 2004 I no longer Trust Polls

[senseandsensibility]

3. I like good news.

I like to take it at face value. It gives me energy for the fight ahead.

[Mark E. Smith]

4. Me too.

I just put in for vacation time this week so I can bang on doors all election week and poll watch on the big day.

I love being a Democrat.

[joefree1]

5. Repukes have jumped the shark

"you can fool some of the people some of the time but ..."

[whistle]

6. Very interesting that 73% of all respondents are very concerned

...that the GOP majority will over-extend U.S. military.

To me that is saying that nearly 3/4 of Americans are telling Cheney, Bush and the republicans to go fuck themselves with all these imperialistic military adventures.

[ECH1969]

7. hmmmm

This poll is from September 6-10, 2006. Bush's increase all happened according to Rassmussen and the NBC poll after the September 11 crap.

[bigdarryl]

8. Yep that poll is old

I want to see polls two weeks from now when all this 9/11 coverage is done.

[melody]

23. Yeah, gawd forbid we have a little hope n/t

[AX10]

9. We need to fight hard if we want to win.

[brentspeak]

10. Not in NJ

Kean Jr. is leading Menendez. It's up to us Democratic rank-and-file to keep Menendez in office.

[civildisoBDence]

11. "Many more voters see their vote as being against the president than at

a comparable point in 1994, and a solid majority says party control of Congress will be a factor in their voting decision."

Gives me hope and renews my faith in the American people.

Newsprism

[Spiffarino]

12. Absolutely and utterly irrelevant.

Polls don't win elections. People getting off their asses and going to the polls do. Get your boots on the ground and start calling, knocking and flyering.

[longship]

14. I agree and also I disagree.

I agree that polls are not going to be accurate this election, that there are things happening that are below the radar. And I agree that the way to win is to put shoes on pavement and get the real work done.

However, this is more than just a public opinion poll. Pew has done some substantial research here which tells us something important that we can use while we are exercising our shoe leather. It tells us how to maximize our efforts. That's good for us.

It also says some things which we didn't know for sure, although many of us have had healthy suspicions:

1. That the Tip O'Neill Principle is non-operative this year.
2. That support for the Democrats is much more firm, and support for the Repukes is much more soft than before.
3. That this election favors the Democrats on almost all substantive issues.
4. That the Repukes have basically only one strategy open to them--play the security card.

If I am a candidate or a campaign strategist, these things are very good to know. Furthermore, it doesn't matter that the Repukes know that I know. Because of the characteristics of the electoral dynamics this year, there's little else they can do. People are ultra pissed at them; they're going to find it difficult going to dig themselves out of the hole they've put themselves in.

It also tells me that the Democrats, if they play their cards right can sweep into power by a comfortable margin in the House, and can likely take the Senate, too.

By the way, skeptics should watch the latest Menendez ad. It was posted here earlier today. It is a clear example of how the Democrats are acting this election. It's a winning strategy. If Menendez keeps this up, he's going to reap the gains while his Repuke opponent reaps the whirlwind.

[Spiffarino]

18. Powerful stuff. All Dems should run Menendez-style.

That's a powerful ad. If all Dems take this tack, there's no way to lose except by election fraud.

Damn. I said it.

[longship]

20. I'd hate to be a Repuke this year.

Rigging 60-70 elections isn't easy. Especially when many, many of them are in places where there's no friendly Secy of State or election commissioner. Places like CT where they use the old machines are nearly untouchable.

The problem is worse than that. If the conclusions of this Pew research is backed by fact--they make a pretty damned strong case--Dems acting like Menendez' campaign are going to be able to basically nullify much the Repuke garbage. On top of that, the garbage is very likely to drive more votes out of their fold. In other words, if Dems play their cards right, Repukes absolutely cannot win.

[Spiffarino]

34. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes, especially where I live

Here in Republican-leaning Western NC the Democratic challenger, Heath Shuler, has taken the offensive and is using Charles Taylor's voting record against him. Taylor is well-known for unfairly smearing his opponents while saying little or nothing of substance.

The tables have turned, and now Shuler is doing the same job on him, with the exception that he's telling the truth. Taylor hasn't refuted anything Shuler has said because he can't. Instead Taylor's trying to tar him with the "Hollywood liberal" label. Shuler was raised in the 11th district, is a devout Christian and was a high school football hero. Good luck with that, Charlie.

[Erika]

13. The GOP have been in control for 6 years and its a mess

Earnings down, poverty up, rich get richer, war everywhere. People have had enough of W and his GOP.

[wake.up.america]

15. Gas prices down to 2 bucks a gallon in November will garner votes.

[Erika]

16. What were they last November?

Or when W and the GOP took over.

[0rganism]

33. short memory syndrome takes care of that

The GOP relies on the principle that the electorate will remember what the prices were in July and regard the $1.99/gallon as a Real Improvement, regardless.

[Spiffarino]

19. It's already raising poll numbers on the economy.

Heard it today on the news during Ed Schultz time. The oil companies owe the GOP big, and they're coming through for their enablers.

Watch out for December...Big Oil will have a lot of pent-up greed to satisfy.

[melody]

22. Good news doesn't make people lazy, it inspires them

Why we have this conglomeration of naysayers over here whenever good polls are posted, is beyond me. If you
genuinely think you're helping matters, imho, you aren't. One of the central tools of the right is discouragement
and promoting helplessness -- to make us surrender.

I'm not attacking you personally, just the trend. It's astonishing to me. Go over to Freeperland and they're all high-
fiving each other, whipping themselves into a frenzy. While certainly our strength is in our ability to critize ourselves,
we also need to learn a few mechanics of human emotions.

We've made great headway. Gasoline is down quite sharply here in my area of California, but Dubya's numbers are still in the
toilet. Everyone keeps saying low numbers = high gasoline cost, but I've seen no evidence that this is the case, and lots
of evidence its not.

I've stopped even reading DU lately because of the negativism.

[Mark E. Smith]

25. I believe some people feel it makes them sound wise and more aware

That it is repetitious and trite doesn't seem to occur to them.

[Spiffarino]

27. Umm, no

I'm not trying to sound wise. I'm not playing at being a naysayer. I'm fucking sick of losing.

The Democratic party has a nasty habit of behaving like the party in power rather than the opposition. They play it safe, they try to pull in conservatives, they think they can appeal to everyone. All the while, the repubs bring out their crazy-ass base by the millions and we FUCKING LOSE!

Fuck throwing a party. Fuck high-fives. And fuck thinly-veiled insults to fellow Democrats who would rather work for a win than throw a premature party. If we don't win this mid-term Bush will never be held to account for his crimes. And when we do win, I'll buy the fucking keg. But until then, I'm not high-fiving anybody. I'll be using both hands to make phone calls and hand out flyers.

[Cameron27]

28. I agree with you

This poll is very encouraging, we finally have some decent campaign ads out there, and we know our biggest weakness...a biased media. I'm going to email H. Dean today to start pressuring the networks for better Dem. commentators. Who knows if it'll work..but it's a start.

Focus on the positive and work on our weakness.

[Divine Discontent]

21. CHARLIE ROSE

the whole show blasted Democrats GOTV operations, skill at campaigning and doubtfulness that we'd win anything.

[Vidar]

26. Good to see a poll get it right.

[skip fox]

29. To keep the lead we need a good message . . .

While the White House and its minions (as on Fox News) push the War on Terror as a way of framing (i.e., "hiding") the Iraq issue for the election, we need people to bring it out of hiding.

Here's one basic approach (I'm sure there are many others):

"Republicans and the administration don't want to run on the mess they made in Iraq, so like a magician they try to distract our attention by covering it under the umbrella of 'A War on Terror,' thereby hiding their blunders from the conception to the execution of the war, from WMD's and Sadam-terrorist's links to the civil war which is now in full progress. It's a GIANT SHELL GAME dreamed up by Rove. We need solutions, not PR tricks or a magician's slight of hand."

Why can't we frame a message simply and compellingly in order to bounce these jokers. Almost all of the important facts are on our side, especially since the Republicians and the administration has been such an obvious failure by almost all standards?

[skip fox]

31. They dress up the pig and tell us to marry it!

Message dedicated to Ann Richards (RIP).

[GETPLANING]

32. Hannity keeps saying the Republicans are in a dead heat.

Every day at about 2:45, Sean Hannity starts his poll report, saying that the Republicans are catching up to the Democrats in the "who would you vote for" polls. There needs to be a phone blitz on his show to dispute him on that, one caller after another. A DU phone blitz!
Once the truth is hammered into his head, he will go back to saying polls don't mean anything.