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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-03-06 11:04 PM
Original message
Disease 'migrates' as world warms


Disease 'migrates' as world warms

Climate change is exacerbating the spread of infectious diseases, according to new research.

Warming temperatures are causing organisms to migrate, Professor Paul Hunter told a conference in the UK.

In Europe, ocean swimmers have been infected with illnesses normally associated with warmer waters.

And Professor Hunter warned not enough was being done to monitor the spread, due to the warming of the Earth, of big killers such as malaria in Africa......


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/5311196.stm

Published: 2006/09/04 01:56:33 GMT
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Harper_is_Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-03-06 11:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. More fodder for the EXXON PR machine to swiftboat.....
And I'll swallow my shirt if DU gives it more than 10 responses.

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robertarctor Donating Member (831 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. Got mayo? Start eating.
Of course tropical diseases (dengue, etc.) will migrate into formerly temperate zones. And it's a given that the GOP fear machine will use this as propaganda, with an added boost to their pals in Big Pharma.

But we don't have to buy into their fearmongering. Solutions should come from people who value science, not people who are afraid of it.
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #1
13. An mpeg of the event will satisfy verification for me.
O8)


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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-03-06 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. Boooga Boooga!
Shit, don't advertise this, Monkey boy in DC will use it to keep us penned in our homes! Don't go out, the WARM dizz-eeeez could kill ya!

When we get a Democratic environmentalist in the White House, then we can leap to work and fix this...

Prof Hunter said the spread of such organisms was probably due to milder winters rather than warmer summers.

But he emphasised that "the burden of climate change will fall on the poorest countries in the world, and the tropical countries. ....

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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-03-06 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
3. This makes perfect sense. Very worrisome. nt
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whatelseisnew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 12:55 AM
Response to Original message
4. The drug resistant strain of TB
Will it spread farther and faster because of this phenomenon?
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
25. ...
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wiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 01:11 AM
Response to Original message
5. Those who survive will eat jellyfish or algae
Blech!
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Sinti Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 01:22 AM
Response to Original message
6. The migration of people and germ carrying goods, combined with
the increase in temps will surely bring new, and more virulent strains of all kinds of diseases.

This has been an issue since Clinton's first term, though. They kept trying to say, hey, look, we need to take care of these disease while they're still in the Third World. Whether you care about those people or not, they're going to come here, then it's going to be you dying. IIRC the conservatives in Congress proceeded to have a hissy fit because the Surgeon General publicly stated that masturbation was natural for teenagers, and probably a good alternative to promiscuous sex... reaping... sowing... what do you think it will take for people to "get it"?

You should take care of that which afflicts your lesser-privileged brethren, in time it will also afflict you.
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pscot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
7. This deserves a kick
I've wondered why DUers don't respond to threads like this one. For such an "enlightened" group the apparent indiferrence/complacency is kind of surprising. Makes you wonder if it really is possible to do anything meaningful about global warming. If it's too awful to think about, just ignore it and maybe it will go away on its own.
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bleedingheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
8. Malaria was common in Italy as well as the American South
years ago...

I have a great book on Malaria and Quinine (the cure/preventative) and it was far more common everywhere than it is today...

Today people think of it as an African sickness but people in England got malaria too.
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GoddessOfGuinness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. But in recent years, drug-resistant forms of malaria have developed
Same with TB, though TB isn't associated with a particular climate.
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WhiteTara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
10. kicking for change
:kick: Knowledge is power
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 02:10 PM
Response to Original message
12. In addition to the "warming" factor; Oxygen depletion
is becoming a major factor in allowing diseases to mutate and flourish.
Oxygen is imbued with tremendous healing qualities as well as acting
as the Darth Vader to most bacteria and virulent micro-organisms.

Really a sad day when we have to beware of the food we grow and eat.
The air we breathe and the water we drink...

Are we better off than we were 10-20 years ago?

Hardly, but corporations are thriving at the expense of mankind.
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. I haven't read of any measurable decrease in O2 concentrations
Some have theorized that the death of plankton could induce a drop in O2 levels, but currently they are the same as they have for thousands of years.

If anything, MORE oxygen would INCREASE mutation rates, as more free radicals would be present to create genetic mutations.
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Not true..
It's CO2 thats the villain and the stuff bacteria thrives on.
Have you noticed the virulence of Poison Ivy, Sumac and Oak lately?
They are all thriving as if cultivated in a nursery atmosphere.

From a newly posted thread addressing a recent 30% increase in CO2.
An increase that ordinarily would take decades has occurred in a mere 17 yrs.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2493401
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. A link verifying O2 depletion
not the very best one I could find.
Commons sense dictates if CO2 has increased as much as they claim
and the level of O2 has been reduced; the balance of O2 and CO2 in the
atmosphere has been changed and this could be a contributing factor to
the viability of new organisms resistant to current antibiotic therapy.

O2 is a very ticklish subject on the net.
But did finaly come across a pertinent reference.

"Scientists were stunned to discover that atmospheric O2 content in ancient times measured twice as high as that of today: It was 38 percent 10,000 years ago, compared to the 21 percent of today, and it is much lover in industrial estates like in Japan it is only 12%, getting lower and lower due to pollution and industrialization. We are simply NOT getting as much oxygen as our human bodies were designed for."

http://www.fewint.com/files/atmosphere.html

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petronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. I would take that website with a very large grain of salt...
12% O2 concentration in Japan!? :rofl:
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Sure, when you produce "YOUR" grain of salt!
:rofl:
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petronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Here are a few grains to help your digestion...
"As fossil fuels burn, they generate carbon dioxide, using up oxygen in the process," explains Mr Ray Langenfelds from CSIRO Atmospheric Research. "About half of the carbon dioxide from fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere."

"The changes we are measuring represent just a tiny fraction of the total amount of oxygen in our air (20.95 per cent by volume). The oxygen reduction is just 0.03 per cent in the past 20 years..."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/07/990719033405.htm


Many good reasons exist for placing deforestation near the top of our list of environmental sins, but fortunately the fate of the Earth's O2 supply does not hang in the balance. Simply put, our atmosphere is endowed with such an enormous reserve of this gas that even if we were to burn all our fossil fuel reserves, all our trees, and all the organic matter stored in soils, we would use up only a few percent of the available O2. No matter how foolishly we treat our environmental heritage, we simply don't have the capacity to put more than a small dent in our O2 supply.

While no danger exists that our O2 reserve will be depleted, nevertheless the O2 content of our atmosphere is slowly declining--so slowly that a sufficiently accurate technique to measure this change wasn't developed until the late 1980s. Ralph Keeling, its developer, showed that between 1989 and 1994 the O2 content of the atmosphere decreased at an average annual rate of 2 parts per million. Considering that the atmosphere contains 210,000 parts per million, one can see why this measurement proved so difficult.

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/21stC/issue-2.1/broecker.htm

As for that 38% claim, this article has a rather generalized figure of O2 concentrations over millions of years - there is no spike at the end of the record...
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. I see you were hard pressed in linking any current findings...
The studies and observations (which were descent btw) you linked are compilations
from 1994 and 1999. The Australian study, reported by Science Daily, is inconclusive imo-
Langenfeld reached his own conclusions based on remnant facts assimilated from Keely's raw data.

Langenfeld's conclusions are based on this supposition :

"However the oxygen measurements shed new light on the extent to which the world's forests and oceans share the task of absorbing half the carbon dioxide generated by burning of fossil fuels. "While the oceans emerge as the slightly larger long-term sink, plants are clearly soaking up more carbon dioxide with time."

"If they weren't, levels of carbon dioxide would be far higher," says Mr Langenfelds.

Almost 10 yrs later, it's common knowledge our oceans are sick and dying. The ph level is rapidly changing to a more acidic level
because of the oxygen depletion in the water compounded with waste dumping, oil spills, the dumping of nuclear waste runoff. Langenfeld felt hopeful our O2 depletion was not a concern because the research he had access to was based on the reliance of our oceans as the largest receptor of CO2 gases. He also factored in the photosynthesis process of plants and forests absorbing CO2 and emitting O2 as balancing factors to support his conclusions. At best, I would say his article is well intentioned. At worst, we know the scale of damage done to the environment over the last 10 yrs is unprecedented.

This from Keeling's link: (1998)

"At present, several research programs are engaged in measuring the O/O ratio of atmospheric CO. These measurements will be useful for validating global-scale numerical models including physiologically based exchanges of HO and CO with leaves and soils. The O/O measurements can be expected to provide information on rates of gross primary production and stomatal conductance integrated over large spatial scales and in variations in these quantities in response to climate change, increasing atmospheric CO, or other global variables."

The above is the latest research available. The research is based on studies done from 1988 to 1994

There is currently NO available information relating to the O2 factor to bring us up to date on the status of the Oxygen ratio/depletion to CO2. Odd isn't it?

The Columbia information contained a little more detailed explanation. However:

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/21stC/issue-2.1/broecker.htm

from your link:

" At first glance, this finding appeared to be good news to those worried about the climatic effects of the ongoing buildup of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, for it suggested that during this five-year period an amount of carbon equal to one-third of that burned for energy production had taken up residence in the biosphere. As another third was taken up by the ocean, this meant that between 1989 and 1994 only one-third of the CO2 we produced by burning fossil fuels accumulated in the atmosphere. However, this enormous bio-spheric storage is likely an anomaly reflecting an unusual climate, perhaps related to persistent El Niño conditions or emissions by the volcano Pinatubo. A burst of plant growth during this period allowed carbon storage to exceed respiratory losses temporarily, but once climate conditions return to normal the products of this burst will be eaten up, releasing this carbon stored in organic matter back into the atmosphere as CO2 gas. Thus, we can't use Keeling's observation as evidence that the biosphere will serve as a major sink for the CO2 we generate. But through Keeling's O2 measurements we now have a reliable means to monitor the ongoing changes in global biomass."

And this:

"The question naturally arises as to whether the Earth has ever experienced an oxygen emergency. Unfortunately, no one has come up with a reliable paleo-O2 proxy. A decade ago, the claim that bubbles trapped in amber preserved 60 million-year-old air generated excitement in the geochemical community, but this claim quickly faded with the discovery that the gas in these bubbles exchanges with that in the surroundings once each thousand years or so. In the absence of a valid proxy, our knowledge of possible fluctuations in the Earth's O2 reserves is based on inferences made from isotope ratio measurements conducted on the element carbon contained in ancient limestones (calcium carbonate) and on the element sulfur contained in ancient evaporites (calcium sulfate). While not telling us even the sense of the O2 content changes, let alone their magnitude, this approach allows a strong argument that variations in O2 have surely occurred.

The underlined section of this paragraph is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard, based on what we know..

"The basis for these inferences is that the O2 in our atmosphere polices the flow of oxidized and reduced matter from the ocean atmosphere system to sediments. If for some reason the combined oxidation state of the carbon and sulfur leaving this system does not match that of the material supplied by erosion and volcanism, then atmospheric O2 takes up the slack. If for example too much carbon is being buried as organic residues, the O2 coproduced during photosynthesis accumulates in the atmosphere. This buildup would eventually allow O2 to invade those anaerobic nooks and crannies where the extra organic matter is being buried and thus restore a balance between the oxidation state of the output and input material.

But thanks anyway. I just think it's odd based on the information you provided where scientist have developed (Keeling) a system of measuring O2 in the atmosphere, strangely there is no current research available on the net for review. And of course, I do believe O2 depletion is going to become a problem. Broecher had to truck in liquid O2 for his biosphere experiment within a year, because his plants had a growth explosion due to the ripe environment he provided for them. However the poor biospherians needed to breathe, the plants could not or would not support his theory, of the CO2, O2 exchange being sufficient to support human life in a bubble without a supply of axillary oxygen. (IOW, his experiment, no matter how you look at it failed to prove his theory as sustainable)

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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #20
28. So, are all the people in Japan dead or not?
12% O2 concentration is positively lethal for humans in a matter of minutes.

On the other extreme, imagine forest fires in a 38% O2 atmosphere. Lightning strikes would have ignited fires that raged for thousands of sq. miles at multiple points across the globe. This massive global ash layer would have been easily discerned in soil samples as distinct from a local forest fires, yet none have been found.
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #17
26. LOL!!!!!!!!!! 38% 10,000 years ago? That is a load of BS.
And if the oxygen concentration was only 12% in Japan everyone there would be dead. O2 levels have been in the mid to low 20's % for the last 50 million years.
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #15
29. Poison ivy is not a bacteria
Increased plant growth is an obvious reaction to a longer growing season as global warming accelerates.

I have grown bacteria in anaerobic (no O2, plenty of CO2) conditions in microbiology class. Most species DIE without oxygen; only certain species such as botulism survive without O2. You boost CO2 and bacteria generally slow their rate of reproduction. Comparing these to photosynthetic plants such as poison ivy that actually metabolize CO2 makes no sense.

"From a newly posted thread addressing a recent 30% increase in CO2."

CO2 constitues ~0.03% of the gases found in the Earth's atmosphere. If CO2 doubled to 0.06% through fossil fuel use, we would only lose 0.06% of the atmospheric O2 through bonding to the carbon atoms released from fossil fuel burning. Hardly the huge drops you believe are occurring.
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. So, ennyway...NickB79 and Odin2005
I've been having this conversation with petronius.

would you all be able to stand down a bit and allow petronius
and I the opportunity to continue to converse? Seeing he went
through all the trouble of providing links to his post?

thanks, your patience is appreciated.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
16. Expect to see a higher incidence of Dengue fever
Edited on Mon Sep-04-06 03:37 PM by depakid
As its vector spreads north from Texas and the South East

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kineneb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
18. Out here in California, we have West Nile Virus
which will not go away, and will only get worse if it gets warmer. Just lovely, all the disease-carrying insects that a somewhat temperate climate has kept out will now come to afflict us, too.
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Nikki Stone 1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-04-06 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #18
22. kick
:kick:
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. kick
:kick:
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hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
27. This sounds like more of that SCIENCE stuff ...
... science, schmience. God will save the pure. The rest of y'all just hate Amerika.


:sarcasm:
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
31. Dude, we don't care until it is too late!
Humans live in perpetual doom.
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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Or until it becomes profitable...
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Anakin Skywalker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-05-06 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
33. West Nile Virus becoming a problem
here in the Western states.
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