STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 31 August

[ozymandius]

Thursday August 31, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 874 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2077 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1777 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1738
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 30, 2006

Dow... 11,382.91 +12.97 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,185.73 +13.43 (+0.62%)
S&P 500... 1,304.27 -0.01 (-0.00%)
Gold future... 626.10 +7.00 (+1.13%)
30-Year Bond 4.91% -0.02 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.76% -0.02 (-0.42%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

“Inflation Not a Problem”…But it’s NOT going Away!

The S&P 500 Index opened this morning at its highest level in three months at 1,303, but so far hasn’t gained enough traction to push through the 1,307 level. To capture a more bullish posture, traders are looking for an intra-day high above 1,308 with a close above 1,305. The release of second quarter GDP figures had little effect on stock futures ahead of the open on the NYSE. Bonds got an early bid on economic weakness pushing the yield of the 30-year T-bond down to 4.9%. The overall mantra on Wall Street is simple and consistent: We have a slowing economy led by housing and inflation is NOT a problem. This mantra is especially good to create added demand for bonds, and how incredibly convenient to happen while the U.S. Treasury is conducting bond sales with the auction of $22 billion 2-year notes yesterday and $14 billion 5-year notes today.

Right out of the gate Monday morning the energy complex was nailed lower with crude moving from a Friday close of $72.51 to close Monday at $70.61; yesterday we saw the follow-through to close below the psychological $70 level at $69.71. We just got more downside pressure a few minutes ago when the Energy Department said crude supplies unexpectedly increased by 2.4 million barrels when the market was expecting a decline of 1.3 million barrels. Crude is now 81 cents lower at $68.90. To add fuel to the argument that inflation is not a problem, wholesale unleaded gasoline stood at $2.35 a gallon on 8/3, but has fallen a whopping 25% in three weeks to $1.77. I believe we are headed for political elections very soon. Lower energy prices are good for the bond market, good for the stock market, good for the economy, good for the U.S. dollar, and overall very good for incumbent politicians to get re-elected in November.

Something to consider: Is it possible the government could have covertly released a few million barrels of oil from the largest inventory on the planet, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? There is a great deal of evidence that governments around the globe have dumped gold on the markets to temporarily suppress its price. As we navigate through these incredibly political times, would they use the SPR to help support the stock and bond markets, and at the same time reduce inflation expectations and increase funds for consumer discretionary spending?….like I said, it’s something to consider. Why don’t they just mail checks to all of us for around $700 like they did a few years ago to kick-off the holiday shopping season? Lower energy prices are expedient from here right through to the elections in November and into the shopping season! Don’t tip the retail apple cart, ‘cause everyone needs to make their nut in the fourth quarter!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

6. It's a Shame that Someone So Young Is Already So Cynical

including myself in that.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/26
Briefing Forecast 315K
Market Expects 315K
Prior 313K

8:30 AM Personal Income Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.6%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior 0.4%

10:00 AM Chicago PMI Aug
Briefing Forecast 56.5
Market Expects 57.0
Prior 57.9

10:00 AM Factory Orders Jul
Briefing Forecast -0.6%
Market Expects -0.8%
Prior 1.2%

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Jul
Briefing Forecast 33
Market Expects 33
Prior 33

[UpInArms]

13. 8:30 reports tumble in:

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY REAL CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.5%

8:30 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS AVERAGE HIGHEST SINCE FEB. 25

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY WAGES, SALARIES UP 0.6%

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. CORE INFLATION 2.4% Y-O-Y, MATCHING 11-YEAR HIGH

8:30 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 3,000 TO 2.49 MILLION

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE FALLS TO -0.9%

8:30 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. 4-WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS AVERAGE RISES 1,000 TO 317,500

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.8% VS. 0.7% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 2,000 TO 316,000

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY PERSONAL INCOMES UP 0.5% AS EXPECTED

8:29 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY CORE INFLATION UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

14. Initial claims @ 316,000 - last week rev'd up to 318,000 from 313,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2988D807%2DAFC8%2D47A5%2DBCA3%2D635CF0441E93%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The four-week moving average of continuing jobless claims rose to its highest level since the end of February during the week ending Aug. 19, the Labor Department said Thursday, even as weekly jobless claims dropped. The four-week average of continuing claims came in at 2.48 million, an increase of 13,500 from the previous week's revised average of 2.47 million, the government said. Meanwhile, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to 316,000. Claims for the week ending Aug. 19 were revised upward, to 318,000 from a previously estimated 313,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting jobless claims to rise to 315,000 in the latest week.

[UpInArms]

15. No core inflation with everything stripped away

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5682BCCC%2D9DE2%2D4798%2DBE8F%2DD3F0C9C98DA1%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Core consumer inflation moderated in July while inflation-adjusted consumer spending expanded at the fastest pace in 2006, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Core consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, the smallest gain since December. Economists were expecting a 0.2% gain. In the past year, core prices are up 2.4%, matching the biggest gain in 11 years. Nominal consumer spending rose 0.8% in July, the biggest gain since January and just ahead of the 0.7% expected on Wall Street. After adjusting for inflation, real spending rose 0.5%, the biggest gain since December. Personal incomes increased 0.5%, as expected. The personal savings rate fell to 0.9%, the lowest since August.

on edit - adding this piece:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCD6AB068%2DD7B3%2D4B49%2D86C0%2D84815BFF0F49%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Core consumer inflation moderated in July while inflation-adjusted consumer spending expanded at the fastest pace in 2006, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Core consumer prices, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% in July, the smallest gain since December. Economists were expecting a 0.2% gain. See Economic Calendar.

In the past year, core prices are up 2.4%, matching the biggest gain in 11 years and well above the Federal Reserve's implied comfort zone of 1% to 2% for core inflation.

Nominal consumer spending rose 0.8% in July, the biggest gain since January and just ahead of the 0.7% expected on Wall Street. After adjusting for inflation, real spending rose 0.5%, the biggest gain since December. Read the full government release.

With moderating inflation and a reinvigorated consumer, the report should cement expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady again at the Sept. 20 meeting.
Bond yields dipped further after the report. Stock futures inched higher. See Indications.

The report was "pretty Treasury-friendly," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, who noted that the three-month average for core prices fell to 2.2% from 2.7%

...more...

[54anickel]

50. Some Companies Passing on Higher Costs

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060830/inflation_companies.html?.v=1

Some examples of companies that have said this summer they are raising product prices, and why:

Black & Decker Corp. -- Maker of power tools and accessories plans price increases later this year, responding to accelerating commodity costs.

Kimberly Clark Corp. -- Raised prices on toilet tissue and paper towels by 6 percent to 7 percent earlier this year and is increasing facial tissue and feminine care products prices; citing higher costs for energy and raw materials.

Southwest Airlines Co. -- Raised some fares, including $10 on one-way flights of more than 1,000 miles, because of high fuel prices. Several competitors matched the increases.

Fuji Photo Film USA Inc. -- Increasing prices on color paper products and photographic chemicals, citing high costs of raw materials including silver and oil.

Franklin Electric Co. -- Maker of electric motors, drives and controls for use by original equipment manufacturers, raising prices for many of its products in the third quarter, after raw material cost increases, mostly in copper.

[UpInArms]

33. July Factory Orders and Help-Wanted Index Fall

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY NONDURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE 1.6%

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED TO -2.5%

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANS UP 1.1%

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY FACTORY INVENTORIES UP 0.6%

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 1.6%

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY FACTORY SHIPMENTS FLAT

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY FACTORY ORDERS FALL 0.6% VS. -0.9% EXPECTED

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY ONLINE HELP-WANTED ADS DECREASE 4% SINCE JUNE

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. JULY HELP-WANTED INDEX DECLINES TWO POINTS TO 32

[UpInArms]

35. U.S. July help-wanted index declines two points to 32

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B12E71D22%2D9483%2D48AC%2D878C%2D631C234C7534%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The volume of help-wanted advertising in major U.S. newspapers fell in July, the Conference Board said Thursday. The help wanted index now stands at 32, versus 39 a year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in eight of the country's nine regions. The sharpest declines were in the western half of the Midwest, including St. Louis, Kansas City and Minneapolis. Online help-wanted ads also declined, by 4% since June, to 2.3 million, the group said.

[UpInArms]

36. Factory orders tumble 0.6% in July

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD2690AD9%2DDE20%2D4FE7%2DB4A3%2D49DEEC1895C5%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Demand for U.S.-made factory goods fell 0.6% in July on a large drop in orders for transportation goods, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Excluding the 10.1% decline in transportation orders, factory orders rose 1.1% in July, the government said.

The 0.6% decline was slightly stronger than the 0.9% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. In addition, June's increase was revised higher to 1.5% from 1.2%.

Shipments of factory goods were unchanged in July. Shipments of durable goods fell 1.3%, led by the 6.7% drop in transportation goods.

Factory inventories increased 0.6%, the ninth increase in the past 10 months. The inventory-to-shipments ratio rose to 1.17 from 1.16.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Chicago August PMI falls to 57.1 from 57.9

10:00 AM ET 8/31/06 U.S. AUG. CHICAGO PMI 57.1 VS 57.0% EXPECTED

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise on concerns about Iran

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Thursday on concerns about possible supply disruptions as a U.N. deadline on Iran's nuclear program arrived.

Light sweet crude for October delivery increased 37 cents to $70.40 a barrel in afternoon Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude on London's ICE futures exchange rose 42 cents to $70.60 a barrel.

Thursday marked the United Nations' deadline for Iran, OPEC's No. 2 oil producer, to halt enrichment of uranium, which can be used in the production of nuclear weapons. If they don't comply, the U.N. could impose economic and diplomatic sanctions — and traders worry how Iran might respond to such a move.

-cut-

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.81 cent to $1.8200 a gallon and heating oil futures were up 0.99 cent to $1.9595 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 3 cents to $6.320 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060831/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_38

[ozymandius]

4. BP may resume pipeline production soon

PRUDHOE BAY, Alaska - BP officials are growing increasingly optimistic that Prudhoe Bay oil production may be returned to normal levels earlier than expected, believing a portion of the pipeline idled by corrosion concerns may be useable at least temporarily and that other sections can be bypassed.

The flow of oil from Prudhoe Bay has been cut in half to 200,000 barrels a day as BP prepares to replace 16 miles of pipeline after discovering extensive internal corrosion that resulted in spills in March and early August.

Oil deliveries resumed earlier this month through the western half of the pipeline system by bypassing the damaged sections of pipe. But the eastern section remains idled as BP conducts extensive tests to determine whether at least some of that pipe can be used.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060831/ap_on_bi_ge/alaska_oil_4

[ozymandius]

5. Gasoline prices could keep falling

Gasoline prices are falling fast and could keep dropping for months.

"The only place they have to go is down," says Fred Rozell, gasoline analyst at the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS). "We'll be closer to $2 than $3 come Thanksgiving."

Travel organization AAA foresees prices 10 cents a gallon lower by the end of next week. It reported a nationwide average of $2.84 Tuesday, the lowest since April 20.

-cut-

Behind the current drop:

•The end of summer. Driving slows, reducing demand for gasoline. And federal requirements for clean air, summer-blend gasoline end next month, making gasoline cheaper to refine and import.

•Sluggish demand. Gasoline use in the first eight months of the year is up 1% vs. a year ago, less than the 1.5% to 2% growth that's typical, says Michael Morris, analyst at the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Wholesalers are trying to get rid of product. The growth in demand for gasoline has really tapered off," he says.

more

[liberal N proud]

9. I think the gas prices will fall, regardless of Oil prices through Nov 7

Once the election is held, then they can take a sharp climb.

[Ghost Dog]

32. FACTBOX-Iran's major oil customers, foreign energy partners

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060831:MTFH13244_2006-08-31_09-27-21_L31160041&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Aug 31 (Reuters) - Oil rose above $70 on Thursday as Iran's expected defiance of a United Nations' deadline to suspend its atomic work raised the risk of sanctions on the world's fourth-biggest crude exporter. Dealers fear Tehran could retaliate by halting exports of 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to international markets. About 60 percent of Iran's crude is shipped to Asia, with the remainder moving mainly into Europe.

The Islamic Republic produces close to 4 million bpd of crude, its full capacity, with some 1.6 million bpd refined domestically and the rest exported.

The United States has the least to lose from any disruption in Iranian exports. It accuses Iran of seeking nuclear arms and funding armed anti-Israeli groups and since 1995 has barred U.S. firms from importing Iranian oil and investing there.

<snip>

The following have the most at stake (crude oil imports based on industry estimates):

* JAPAN: Biggest buyer of Iranian crude, cut second quarter imports by nearly 40 percent, or 240,000 bpd from previous quarter, to 385,000 bpd. Top refiner Nippon Oil (5001.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) said in March it would trim Iranian purchases due to geopolitical risks. Iran ranks as Japan's fifth largest crude supplier and Tokyo has cautioned world powers against including oil in sanctions they may impose on Iran for its refusal to suspend atomic work. Japan's INPEX (1605.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) has until Sept. 15 to finalise a $2 billion deal to develop Iran's Azadegan oilfield or Tehran may offer the giant field to Russian, Chinese or Iranian companies.

* CHINA: Imported 339,000 bpd of Iranian oil in second quarter. Aiming to develop Iran's $2 billion Yadavaran oilfield.

* INDIA: Buys 230,000 bpd of Iranian oil, mostly to Reliance (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research). From late 2009, Iran to supply with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 25 years in $22 billion deal. Eyeing stake in Iran's Yadavaran oilfield and involved in proposed $7 billion project to pipe Iran gas via Pakistan to India.

* KOREA: Refined 214,000 bpd of Iranian crude in second quarter. Involved in $1.6 billion stake of South Pars gas field.

* ITALY: Buys just under 200,000 bpd of Iranian oil.

* FRANCE: Imports 140,000 bpd from Iran.

* NETHERLANDS: Iranian crude liftings of 139,000 bpd.

* TURKEY: Consumes 130,000 bpd of Iranian crude.

* Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) (UK/Netherlands) -- Buys 100,000 bpd of Iranian oil. Developed $1 billion Soroush/Nowruz oilfields. Looking to invest in Iranian LNG plant with Spain's Repsol (REP.MC: Quote, Profile, Research), which lifts 80,000 bpd of Iranian crude.

* Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) (France) -- Imports 80,000 bpd of Iranian oil. Invested heavily in Iran's oil and gas sector. Involved in Sirri, Doroud and Balal oilfields. Invested in South Pars gas field with Malaysia's Petronas and Russia's Gazprom. Hoping to invest in Iranian LNG plant.

* ENI (ENI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) (Italy) -- Lifts 30,000 bpd of Iranian oil. Invested in $1 billion Darkhovin oilfield project. Involved with Total in $1 billion Doroud oilfield and smaller Balal oilfield. Invested in South Pars gas field stake worth nearly $2 billion.

[ozymandius]

7. Economy slows; GDP up 2.9%

WASHINGTON -- The economy lost momentum in the spring, the government reported yesterday, and somewhat sluggish growth lies ahead, according to some analysts' projections.

The Commerce Department's latest snapshot of the economy showed the gross domestic product grew at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the April-to-June quarter.

Although that was a slight improvement over the agency's July estimate of a 2.5 percent growth rate, the figure provided evidence of how much momentum the economy has lost since last winter.

In the January-to-March quarter, the economy grew at a brisk 5.6 percent pace, the fastest spurt in 21/2 years.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060831/BUSINESS/608310348

[Ghost Dog]

38. Canada's economy slams on the brakes in 2nd quarter

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-08-31T131249Z_01_N3179574_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CANADA-TRADE-UPDATE-2.XML

OTTAWA, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Canada's economy lost momentum in the second quarter, posting 2.0 percent growth, down sharply from 3.6 percent in the previous quarter, as weaker exports took their toll along with a slower pace of consumer and business spending.

Statistics Canada also reported on Thursday that gross domestic product did not grow at all in June from May, after inching up just 0.1 percent in May. Statscan revised lower the first-quarter growth figure from 3.8 percent previously. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast, on average, a slowdown in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.2 percent and month-on-month growth of 0.2 percent in June.

The domestic side of the economy continues to fuel most of the growth in Canada's trade-reliant economy, with weaker exports offsetting those gains, the report said. "The weak spot was really on the export side and this shows us that once again the export sector of the Canadian economy is still struggling with the impact of the stronger Canadian dollar," said Marc Levesque, chief strategist at TD Securities.

<snip>

Exports fell 0.3 percent as the manufacturing sector was hit by a strong Canadian dollar and slumping foreign demand.

The Canadian dollar <CAD=> dropped following the report to to C$1.1086 to the U.S. dollar, or 90.20 U.S. cents, down from C$1.1079 to the U.S. dollar, or 90.26 U.S. cents, ahead of the data. Bonds pushed higher.

<snip>

The Bank has held interest rates steady at 4.25 percent since May on the expectation growth would cool and inflation would remain within its target range of between 1 percent and 3 percent.

The inflation measure favored by the Bank, which excludes eight volatile items and the effects of a July 1 cut in the sales tax, was right on target in the year to July, at 1.5 percent.

[ozymandius]

8. Gotta go folks.

I'll check back this evening. Have a great day everyone!

:hi:

Ozy

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.85 Change -0.16 (-0.19%)

The Fed's Concern But Not The Dollar's

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/The_Fed_s_Concern_But_Not_1156954040400.html

In the last 24 hours, dollar traders have taken in a FOMC minutes that requires some degree of interpretation and subsequent reports of economic growth and inflation. After all of the economic pieces fell into place to offer a complete view of where policy may go for the remainder of the year, the path remained muddled with analysts firmly divided between a hike and a firm halt.

In spot action today, the majors were little put off of their previous trends after the release of US data. The euro held its range against the greenback between a solid resistance of 1.2855 and a still new support of 1.2810. The same congestion pattern was dominating the USDCHF. A 45-point spread was held in place by multiple tests of 1.2310 and 1.2265. In the GBPUSD, cross currency bidding was moving the pair above resistance in place around 1.9020. From the low set in the early Asian session, GBPUSD steadily rose 90 points to 1.9060. Finally, Japanese yen selling benefited the USDJPY pair, which advanced 65 points from yesterday’s low to 117.15.

When Asian and European traders joined the market in the overnight session, the FOMC meeting minutes was still burning its imprint in the dollar. The first official release accompanying the decision to stay rates after 17 consecutive hikes, the wording of the document was eagerly awaited for interpretation. Many expected the shift in rate policy to be reflected in the wording of the report by taking a less aggressive stance on inflation and putting a spotlight on economic growth concerns. While slowing growth was given greater importance, concerns over price growth were definitely not played down. The text showed the voting board members felt “the decision was a close call……additional firming could well be needed.” The threat of price growth beyond what the central bank would tolerate seems so great that all members of the committee agreed the minutes should make clear that “inflation risks remained dominate” and the August decision to pass on a rate shift did not necessarily negate future tightening. Moving on to the data that hit the newswires this morning, revisions of second quarter GDP and the inflation figures derived from it offered little. Annualized GDP grew more than the initially reported by 2.9%. However, this rate of expansion was still far short of the previous three months 5.6% performance and was even short of the 3.0% market expectations for the revision. Within the data, one noticeably worse component was home construction, which dropped a faster than expected 9.8% for the biggest decline in 11 years. This is especially distressing for the US economy given the poor performance of last week’s new and existing home sales for July. However, countering somewhat the degradation of the main source of consumer wealth, aggregate income over the same three months received a $100 billion upward revision. This will further add to speculation of if and when the steady decline in housing will begin to distinctly constrict consumer spending. For the inflation hawks, the revisions offered little to shift expectations. Core personal consumption expenditure, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, ticked slightly lower to 2.8%. On the other hand, the adjusted figure was still considerably faster than the 2.1% rate in the opening months. Finally, released in the background, the ADP employment change indicator reported 107,000 new hires for the month of August. ADP’s indicator has been inconsistent with the NFPs over the past few months, coming in way too high in June and then too low in July. More reliably, an auction of derivatives tied to the Friday NFP release on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange weighed in with an implied 120,300 figure.

Equities were mixed by midi-session even as crude prices drop below $69 per barrel and a report showed the economy grew faster than originally expected in the second quarter. The Nasdaq Composite was the only index trading solidly in the green by 15:45 GMT with a 0.4% advance to 2,179.92. The Dow Composite was only marginally higher at 11,373.70 while the SP 500 Index gave its early advance to trek 0.1% down at 1,303.47. Stealing the headlines today, Costco Wholesale, the bulk retailer, lowered its earnings forecast citing higher gasoline prices and stronger competition. Shares were down $2.44 or 5.0% to $46.81. Another company moving on the news was Altria Group Inc. which announced a 7.5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.86 per share. Shares lost the 0.7% advance earlier in the session to remain unchanged from yesterday close at $83.53.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Labor Day or Layoff Day?

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2006/20060830170655.aspx

How’s the American worker doing on this Labor Day weekend?

According to network news, he’s either about to get laid off or he’s just languishing at his current job.

Recent coverage of work has leaned heavily toward the negative, whether it’s lamenting the failure of a minimum wage increase or scrutinizing workaholic technology use. And ABC News has warned that after Labor Day, “thousands of jobs are expected to be cut.”

But the news is bad, according to ABC, even if you’re securely employed. You’re probably being overworked and raising your blood pressure, as ABC’s “Good Morning America” reported, or you need counseling for your technology addiction, as ABC’s “World News” asserted.

Of course, that’s not the end of work news. Unemployment is low, and many employers are actually searching for workers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Man found dead at his foreclosed home by buyer of foreclosed home

http://www2.townonline.com/billerica/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=564017

Police are investigating the death of a man whose body was found at his home last week along with large amounts of ammunition that prompted a call to the state police bomb squad.

The cause of Paul Kennedy’s death remains unclear but police don’t believe foul play is involved, although they are awaiting a report from the medical examiner.

Police Sgt. Roy Frost said police believe Kennedy had been dead for a couple weeks before he was found Aug. 23. Kennedy’s next of kin, who do not live in the immediate area, were notified, Frost said.

Kennedy, 56, was found when Gary Litchfield, who had bought the 8 Fawn Lane house at a foreclosure sale, sent Kennedy an order to vacate the premises. When the order wasn’t acknowledge, Litchfield called police.

Frost said police had to force their way into the home, where they found Kennedy’s body at around 4:30 p.m.

Also in the house were several semi-automatic rifles, ammunition and what appeared to be a cluster bomb weighing about 100 pounds. The device was later determined to be inactive.

...more...

[Robbien]

46. Oh dear lord

I wonder how many similar situations are playing out across the nation.

[UpInArms]

16. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds bank reserves via 14-day system repos

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-31T122315Z_01_N31301359_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.313 percent, above the Fed's 5.25 percent target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

17. Treasuries rise after lower than expected core PCE

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-31T123738Z_01_NYG000331_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices briefly rose on Thursday after data showed a gauge of inflation that the Federal Reserve watches closely was more muted than expected.

The July core PCE reading rose 0.1 percent, below economists' median forecast for a rise of 0.2 percent.

The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> price rose as much as 2/32 for a yield of 4.747 percent, versus 4.753 percent just before the data and versus 4.75 percent late on Wednesday, a five-month low. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

[UpInArms]

22. Printing Press Clacking: Fed adds bank reserves via overnight system RPS

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-31T133232Z_01_N31342934_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Earlier, the Fed added $7.0 billion in temporary reserves to the system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.313 percent, above the Fed's 5.25 percent target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

47. Chopper Ben dons skirt and pom-poms

12:25 PM ET 8/31/06 BERNANKE DOES NOT ADDRESS ECONOMY, RATES IN SPEECH

12:25 PM ET 8/31/06 BERNANKE: 'INTANGIBLE' CAPITAL KEY TO PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE

12:25 PM ET 8/31/06 BERNANKE: STRONG POST-''95 PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH TO CONTINUE

[54anickel]

49. I just had to find out what "intangible" he was talking about

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-31T165427Z_01_N31440605_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-UPDATE-1.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage2

snip>

While investment in new technologies had slowed from its breakneck 1990s pace, businesses had been making "intangible investments" -- such as in worker training -- that allowed them to become more efficient, he said.

"The concept of intangible capital may shed light on the puzzle of why productivity growth has remained strong despite the deceleration in (information technology) investment," Bernanke said.

He added that investing in U.S. labor force skills would be "particularly important" in coming years, and said the way intangible investments were treated in official data meant U.S. saving and investment may be "significantly understated." :spit:

[UpInArms]

52. I'll see your :spit: and raise to a

:spray:

:hi:

[UpInArms]

18. Georgia: Layoffs occurring at three local plants

http://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=32&url_article_id=18874&url_subchannel_id=&change_well_id=2

LAWRENCEVILLE - By the end of this month, more than 200 locals will be without a job.

According to a Web site from the Georgia Department of Labor announcing layoffs, three manufacturing facilities in the area are letting some of their work force go.

A total of 178 employees are facing a lay-off by Johnson Controls Team Atlanta.
The employees work at facilities in Norcross and Suwanee, according to paperwork filed with the Department of Labor.

The company makes car seats for General Motors and wrote in a letter to the mayors of the cities that the decision to downsize was based on GM's decision to only work one shift at its Doraville plant.

The workers, who mostly live in DeKalb and Gwinnett counties, are available for recall until August 2008.

A third manufacturing facility - The R&R Manufacturing Co. in Auburn - is laying off 30 workers.

Auburn's mayor, Harold Money, said the company that makes men's trousers has had a hard time competing against manufacturing plants in China and Mexico.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures indications are holding their own above fair value, still pointing to a modestly higher open for the indices. Oil prices pulling back from their morning highs and now nearly flat as well as the bulk of notable monthly comps (e.g. ANF, AEOS, BJ, DG, GYMB, KSS, LTD, JWN, SKS and TJX) so far checking in better than expected are providing a floor of support as investors await even more economic data.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Personal income and spending for July were up 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, in line with expectations. The more closely watched core-PCE deflator, meanwhile, was up just 0.1%, below an expected 0.2% rise and keeping the year-over-year rate at 2.4%. Futures indications have improved following the report and now suggest a slightly higher open for equities. Bonds have also improved a bit, with the yield on the 10-yr note falling 1 basis point to 4.74%. Initial claims fell 2K to 316K (consensus 315K); however, the data have had little impact on trading as investors remain more focused on tomorrow's influential August jobs report.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures versus fair value are signaling a relatively flat start for stocks as investors cautiously weigh a 1% jump in oil prices against a plethora of August same-store that continue to pour in ahead of some key economic data. Most notably will be the upcoming release of the Personal Income & Spending report at 8:30 ET, with special emphasis being placed on the core-PCE index -- the Fed's favored inflation measure -- and the impact it could have on the outlook for Fed policy.

[Ghost Dog]

20. Japanese Stocks Advance

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060831/ap/d8jrbag00.html

Japanese stocks rose Thursday, lifted by broad gains in technology and blue-chip stocks like Toshiba and Canon. The dollar rose to a six-week high against the yen.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index added 268.74 points, or 1.69 percent, to finish at 16,140.76 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, finishing above the psychologically key 16,000 mark for the first time since Aug. 23.

Still, the index's upward momentum will likely be only temporary, as Thursday's gains were mainly due to buying from hedge funds and other short-term players, said Yuji Nakagawa, the head of derivative dealing division at Tokyo Securities. "The market was driven only by moves in the futures market amid very thin volume trading," Nakagawa said.

Toshiba Corp. rose 3.21 percent to 836 yen ($7.15). Canon Inc. added 2.28 percent to 5,840 yen ($49.91) and Sony Corp. posted a 1.80 percent gain to 5,080 yen ($43.42).

<snip>

The broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the exchange's first section, rose 21.80 points, or 1.35 percent, to 1,634.46 points.

First-section volume rose to 1.658 billion shares, from Wednesday's 1.472 billion shares. Advances beat decliners 1,308 to 293, with 85 issues unchanged.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

24. Japan did not intervene in forex market in Aug

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060831:MTFH14400_2006-08-31_10-25-56_T370062&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Japan did not conduct any currency intervention between July 28 and Aug. 29, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.

It was the 29th straight month in which Japan has stayed out of the market, the longest stretch since the MOF began keeping such records in 1991.

The last time Japanese authorities sold yen to stem the currency's rise was on March 16, 2004, when it was trading at about 108.60 to the dollar <JPY=>.

Japan sold 35 trillion yen ($298.3 billion) in the 15 months to March 2004 to weaken the yen due to concerns that excessive yen strength could weaken overseas demand for Japanese exports and hurt the nation's economic recovery.

But the economy has since been improving gradually and Japan is showing signs of breaking free from a near decade-long bout of deflation.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

40. Yen hits fresh lows on weak data

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38960.4013310185-881042089&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

The yen hit yet another record low against the euro in European morning trade on Thursday as weak Japanese data eased the way for carry trade investors to continue shorting the Japanese currency. Soft Japanese inflation data, released on Friday, persuaded many commentators that the Bank of Japan will not follow-up July’s initial quarter-point interest rate rise this calendar year, or even this fiscal year. This dovish view gained further traction on Thursday when the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said industrial production fell 0.9 per cent in July, bucking consensus expectations for a rise of 0.7 per cent. Data for construction orders and housing starts also showed worse-than-expected month-on-month declines in July.

<snip>

All this conspired to send the yen to a fresh all-time low of Y150.78 to the euro, from Y150.29 overnight, The yen also hit fresh near eight-year lows of Y223.83 against sterling and Y95.64 to the Swiss franc, falls of Y1 and Y0.25 respectively, as well as slipping Y0.4 to Y117.47 against the US dollar, before recovering to Y117.13.

[Ghost Dog]

26. Japan OK with oil reserves in event of Iran sanctions

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060831/kyodo/d8jrdgd00.html

(Kyodo) _ Japan can manage with its oil reserves in the event economic sanctions are imposed on Iran and oil shipments from the country are suspended, a senior Japanese trade official suggested Thursday.

"Unlike in the past two oil crises, we now have ample oil reserves and I believe we can deal with (emergencies) without a hitch," Vice Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Takao Kitabata said at a news conference.

"We have developed alternative resources and our country is most advanced in the world in energy conservation," he said. "We have a thoroughgoing system in terms of oil."

Japan depends on Iran for about 15 percent of its total oil imports. Tokyo maintains oil stockpiles able to meet demand for about 170 days.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

30. Iran and Japan speak for continuation of nuclear negotiations

http://www.regnum.ru/english/697368.html

Iranian nuclear issue has to be resolved by diplomatic means. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and head of Japan’s foreign ministry Taro Aso highlighted this position at a meeting in Tokyo late Aug 30. The sides supported prolongation of talks between Iran and the “5+1” group (Russia, US, China, Great Britain, France, and Germany).

/...

[Ghost Dog]

31. China pursuing 'diplomacy' with Iran

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3781595a12,00.html

BEIJING: Iran and oil-famished China have agreed on favouring a diplomatic solution to international confrontation over Tehran's nuclear plans at a meeting, the Chinese foreign ministry said.

Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing met Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Beijing, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a brief statement on its Web site (www.fmprc.gov.cn).

"Both sides exchanged views on developments in the Iranian nuclear issue, and stressed that it should be appropriately resolved through diplomatic negotiations," the statement said.

<snip>

In the first seven months of 2006, Chinese trade with Iran reached $7.9 billion, a jump of 43.9 per cent on the same period last year, driven by rising Iranian oil exports, according to Chinese Customs statistics. China's imports of Iranian crude reached 9.7 million tonnes in the first seven months, a rise of 10.4 per cent in volume compared to the same time last year. With rocketing oil prices, the value of those Iranian crude imports leapt 45.7 per cent to $4.4 billion.

A spokesman for the Iranian embassy in Beijing confirmed Araghchi had visited for two days of talks with Chinese diplomats and said there would be no news briefing.

[Ghost Dog]

27. HK shares at 2-wk closing high as properties gain

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060831:MTFH11835_2006-08-31_08-15-00_HFB077641&type=comktNews&rpc=44

HONG KONG, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks advanced for a third straight day on Thursday, gaining 0.62 percent as the latest U.S. inflation data supported the view that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady in the near-term, boosting property shares like Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd (0001.HK: Quote, Profile, Research).

The benchmark Hang Seng index <.HSI> ended at 17,392.27, the highest closing level since Aug. 16.

The Hang Seng properties sub-index <.HSNP> gained 0.95 percent to 20,867.46

/...

[Ghost Dog]

28. Japanese auto exports up 20.5% in July on year

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060831/kyodo/d8jrb4ho0.html

Japanese auto exports in July increased 20.5 percent from the same month a year ago to 513,626 units as fuel-efficient Japanese cars grew more popular on rising gasoline prices, an industry body said Thursday.

It was the 12th straight year-on-year rise, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said. In July, exports were the highest in 18 years.

Exports to North America scored a steep rise of 35.1 percent. Those to Europe increased 8.2 percent.

Passenger car exports increased 24.8 percent to 453,914 units. Bus exports rose 13.3 percent to 8,110 units, but truck exports declined 7.0 percent to 51,602 units.

Backed by the robust exports, Japanese auto output in the month rose 8.2 percent to 977,856 units.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

21. Euro extends gains after Trichet comments

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060831:MTFH19784_2006-08-31_13-16-23_N31304104&type=comktNews&rpc=44

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The euro extended gains against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank Jean Claude-Trichet signalled that the bank may have to raise interest rates soon to stem inflation in the euro zone.

In contrast, U.S. government data showed benign inflationary pressures in July, which had little impact on the dollar as it reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to hike rates.

"Trichet sounds hawkish to me and therefore all systems go for an ECB rate hike in October," said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets in New York.

Trichet, in comments after the bank held interest rates steady at 3.00 percent, said "strong vigilance" on inflation was needed, an indication the bank will likely raise rates soon.

"His comments are weighing on the dollar. They're really as expected but the fact that he is reaffirming his hawkishness exacerbates the chances of a rate increase," Schlossberg said.

The euro rose to session highs around $1.2880 after Trichet's comments, before trading back down to $1.2874 <EUR=>, up 0.3 percent on the day.

Analysts said the weaker-than-expected rise in the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, a key measure of U.S. inflationary pressures, would likely weigh on the dollar. The index rose just 0.1 percent last month, below market forecasts for an increase of 0.2 percent.


<snip>

The Japanese currency again hit a record low against the euro at 150.73. The pair last traded at 150.59 <EURJPY=>, up 0.2 percent from late on Wednesday.

The yen also hit a new trough against sterling at 223.83 yen <GBPJPY=>.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

23. Bourses dragged lower midday as oil rises

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38960.3443055556-881035716&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Europe’s bourses retreated on Thursday as the price of oil climbed back above $70 a barrel on uncertainty ahead of today’s deadline for Iran to cease uranium enrichment. “Oil prices have edged back above the key $70 a barrel line despite far better than expected inventory data out of the US, largely on the back of uncertainty over supplies as the UN deadline for Iran to suspend nuclear activities has now been reached,” Matt Buckland, trader at CMC Markets said.

<snip>

The European Central Bank as expected kept rates unchanged at 3 per cent, but the market will be looking for indications on whether rates will rise in October. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 slipped 0.2 per cent to 1,373.06 with the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt down 0.1 per cent to 5,863.62, the CAC-40 in Paris 0.2 per cent off at 5,170.74 and the FTSE 100 in London down 0.1 per cent at 5,923.8.

[Ghost Dog]

39. FTSE drifts down, hit by consumer confidence data

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=londonMktRpt&storyID=2006-08-31T112233Z_01_IRE140958_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS-UPDATE-2-20060831.XML

LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Britain's largest shares drifted down on low volumes led by Diageo (DGE.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and with sentiment hit by a survey showing a sharp decline in British consumer confidence and by buoyant sterling following strong house price data.

"UK equities are already falling off ahead of taking an extended weekend in the U.S., and the market is taking any excuse to take a profit, overreacting to any release of bad news," a trader said.

<snip>

The market's mood was dented by GfK NOP's monthly consumer confidence barometer which fell to its lowest reading since December 2005, traders said.

Adding to the downside was the sharp rise in British house prices shown by the Nationwide Building Society, which raised expectations for an interest rate hike this year and sent sterling to its highest since August 2004.

By 1057 GMT, the FTSE 100 (.FTSE: Quote, Profile, Research) index had reached 5,918, down 11.3 points, or 0.2 percent.

<snip>

Miners were among the largest gainers, helped by a Lehman Brothers research note saying that they had increased their forecasts for nickel and zinc prices in 2007 and, as a result, the miners most exposed to them will benefit. Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 2.3 percent, followed by Vedanta, (VED.L: Quote, Profile, Research) up 0.9 percent. Copper edged higher in London with all eyes on the world's largest copper mine Escondida, where a breakthrough in talks between the union and management could lead to an end of a 25-day long strike later on Thursday.

<snip>

BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 0.8 percent and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was steady as U.S. oil prices rose 37 cents to $70.55 a barrel.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

41. Europe’s economic outlook clouds up after hot H1

http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/business/2006/August/business_August830.xml§ion=business&col=

PARIS - Europe’s economic outlook looked less sure-footed on Thursday after its first-half spurt as some good, and much bad, news came in on how the big economies fared in July and August.

German unemployment rose slightly in August despite signs of continued job creation, and German retail sales fell sharply. Italian business confidence slid. France shone with news of another dip in unemployment in July, to a four-year low.

EU statistics office Eurostat issued a preliminary estimate that eurozone inflation eased to 2.3 percent from 2.4 in August. And the European Commission said August surveys showed a deterioration in economic sentiment.

The mixed reports will not simplify the task of the European Central Bank, which left interest rates on hold at 3 percent on Thursday but is expected to hike to 3.5 percent by year-end to head off inflation.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet reinforced speculation about further rate hikes at his news conference on Thursday when he said :”Strong vigilance remains of the essence so as to ensure upside risks to price stability are contained.”

Earlier, Germany’s Federal Labour Office announced a rise of 5,000 in the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in August, halting the downward trend of recent months, and leaving the jobless rate at 10.6 percent.

That contrasted with a report by the statistics office that employment rose by 31,000 in July.

France’s Labour Ministry reported overnight that the French unemployment rate slid to 8.9 percent in July from 9.0 percent in June and was 10 percent lower than in July 2005.

Italy, the third-largest euro zone economy after Germany and France, showed signs of faltering business confidence.

/...

[UpInArms]

25. California bills target huge stores over GOPpiggies objections

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060831/ap_on_bi_ge/california_wal_mart

SACRAMENTO, Calif. - Bills that would give California's local governments more power to fight Wal-Mart and other huge stores are heading to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, over the objections of the giant retailer, business groups and Republican lawmakers.

The latest bill, approved 23-16 Wednesday by the Senate, would require local governments to consider an economic impact report before approving any "big box" store larger than 100,000 square feet.

On Tuesday, a 24-13 vote sent Schwarzenegger a bill requiring retailers to pay communities' legal fees if the local governments prevail in lawsuits that challenge zoning ordinances or regulations aimed at restricting mega-stores.

<snip>

The state has an interest, he said, because "Wal-Mart is the most egregious offender when it comes to having employees use public assistance — in fact, training them to apply."

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. 9:47 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,388.99 +6.08 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,187.82 +2.09 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,304.06 -0.21 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.759 -0.004 (-0.08%)

NYSE Volume 139,778,000
Nasdaq Volume 172,801,000

09:40 am : Market opens slightly higher after this morning's data show low inflation and steady economic growth. Earlier, July core-PCE rose just 0.1% -- the smallest gain this year, mirroring the good July core-CPI data and lending further support for the Fed to remain on hold at its next meeting on September 20. Also, July personal spending jumping 0.8%, the most since January, is also comforting for investors as it shows that economic growth has not weakened nearly as much as often assumed. Be that as it may, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.8%, 2.3% and 4.5%, respectively, during what is historically one of the worst months (August) of the year for stocks, according to the Stock Traders Almanac, the temptation to lock in some of those gains heading into the long holiday weekend is keeping this morning's advance minimal. DJ30 +13.69 NASDAQ +5.98 SP500 +0.82 NASDAQ Vol 113 mln NYSE Vol 56 mln

[UpInArms]

37. 10:06 EST numbers, blather and bye!

Dow 11,399.24 +16.33 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,192.42 +6.69 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,304.93 +0.66 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.747 -0.016 (-0.34%)

NYSE Volume 260,003,000
Nasdaq Volume 311,726,000

10:00 am : Major averages now trade in split fashion as mixed sector leadership continues to dictate early action. While a reversal in oil prices bodes well for consumers, the subsequent loss of leadership in the Energy sector (-0.6%) is acting as a counterweight to lessened inflation concerns as oil slips back under $70 a barrel. Also providing little enthusiasm during what is expected to be another thinly-traded session is the fact the most of the leadership is coming from the three economic sectors that carry the least amount of weight on the S&P 500 -- Materials (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.2%) and Utilities (+0.6%). They combine to account for only 9.8% of the influence on the broader market. DJ30 +2.24 NASDAQ +1.57 SP500 -0.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 853/1533/268 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 915/1705/134 mln

gotta run!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

42. U.S. economy could be in recession -report

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-31T142309Z_01_NYH000247_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHICAGO-RECESSSION-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy may be in recession, based on Midwest manufacturing data, a report said on Thursday.

According to Kingsbury International, a partner of NAPM Chicago which puts out The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer, "the U.S. economy could be in a recession at this time."

"In four of the last five recessions, the slowing of the Chicago business barometer signaled a recession either one or two years later", the report said.

:shrug:

[Ghost Dog]

43. Gold up

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B810EF1F2%2D11CA%2D4E0E%2DAEBA%2DF8E587C9CE35%7D&link=&keyword=gold

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures headed higher Thursday morning and Glamis Gold shares climbed as much as 24% on news that Goldcorp will acquire the miner for $8.6 billion in stock.

The precious metal also gained strength from Iran's continued refusal to bow to U.N. demands that Tehran cease enriching uranium. The crisis has boosted safe-haven demand for gold. "Today's rally is taking place amid (still) thin trading conditions and price gyrations are exaggerated by the absence of a good portion of the trading crowd," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at Kitco.com. "Nonetheless, the bias is clearly to the upside for the moment as safe-haven buyers are manifesting their (nervous) presence," he said.

Gold for December delivery was up $5.40 at $631.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed higher for the first time in three days Wednesday, gaining $7 with support coming from dollar weakness and Iran concerns.

Tracking the metals equities as a whole, indexes moved higher, ready to mark a third day of gains. The CBOE Gold Index was at 150.20 points, up 2.4%, and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Exchange Index was up 1.3% at 146.58 points. The Amex Gold Bugs climbed 2% at 346.88 points.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

45. Expectation of US recession a hand over gold market

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/laird/laird083106.html

In most of the gold analysis I see now, it appears that most of the bullish assessments are based on the world economic growth of recent years, but little regard is given to a coming severe US economic contraction. That is to begin in earnest by about Jan 2007.

The US and West are going to find a world hostile to their intent, and become enmeshed in a deconstruction of the great World War 2 Western Prosperity Bubble. The world will have to reorganize economically, in great pain, to replace this prosperity bubble.

The US will lead the heavily indebted west, the EU and Japan into a deep recession. The rest of the world, even gangbusters China and India, will follow soon after.

But, continuing on the economic front, the US is fast about to begin a depression. The housing bubble will lead to a once in a century depression like the 1930's. Japan and China and India might not take it as bad, but they might also grind down with us too. I expect they will follow us into Depression.

Europe is stagnating, hopelessly socialistic. :eyes:

In short, we are about to witness the 'post prosperity' world in the West.

<snip>

The entire world is balancing between gangbuster growth in the East and an actual depression about to emerge in the US. It is the last gasp of the finance bubble worldwide that seems to be centered in the US now, but actually started in Japan in the 1980's. I'm going to cut that part of the discussion short so I can get to the point.

The big gold story right now is the impending economic recession or depression coming right now upon the US, and the end of the post WW2 prosperity boom in the West.

I don't feel that it is a large jump for me to say the US is just about to enter a depression. Not a recession but a depression. Whether the rest of the world follows is another issue. To give you an idea of what a depression is, look at the recession of the early '90s. That was quite severe, but in no way a real depression. Or look at the micro recession post 911 - severe and deep world wide but short. The depression I foresee for the US, commencing about Jan 2007, is a long deep contraction that will ultimately be called the greatest US downturn since the 1930's. It might even exceed that in severity.

Gold is reflecting this sentiment in the horizontal prices of the last month or two. The US housing bubble is clearly collapsing fast. The news out now about it is not sporadic bad news, its just very bad all around. If the US was showing better economic health, gold right now would be about $50 higher at least and probably $100 higher. I think gold first, and the commodity market in general, is going to reflect declining world economic demand that will become more clear by Jan 2007. Gold is by far the most forward looking 'commodity'. My previous articles on coming stock drops coming and gold anticipating this also speak to the same issue.

If the US were to fall into the recession and depression that I foresee will start about Jan 2007, about 70% of US economic activity will pull back greatly- the US consumer. Considering the fact that the US accounts for about 30% of the entire world GDP. That US consumer retraction will spell doom for the world economy as well.

Gold is reflecting this expectation. The fact is, if economic activity- in the world's largest economy by far- collapses, as I suspect it will beginning in 2007, gold will find that inflation vanishes, industrial production drops precipitously, and all those expensive commodities now are going to tank starting in 2007.

/continues...

[ozone_man]

48. January 2007.

In other words, right after the 2006 election they'll let it drop. It's certainly been taking a long time, but the bubble will eventually burst.

[markam]

51. Silver up too

Looks like it will top $13 tomorrow.

Come on $20.

[ret5hd]

54. $20 hell...methinks you've set your sights too low.

[markam]

55. $20 is my short-term goal

Long-term at least $150.

[Ghost Dog]

44. Vulnerabilities

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_083106.html

...Contrary to popular opinion, October is not the worst month of the year. September is. Since 1950, September has seen 19 ups and 36 downs. No other month comes close. There were particularly nasty Septembers in 2002 and 2003, as the market lost more than 10 percent each time. (Note: statistics here are based on the Dow Jones Industrials.) The market also lost more than 10 percent in September 1974. Indeed, those three Septembers rank amongst the worst months ever since 1950. There are no Septembers amongst the best months.

September also saw a few sharp market losses before 1950. One memorable one was in 1946, when the market fell nearly 10 percent. The master 60-year cycle from 1946 remains a real possibility this year as well. The alternative might be from the 30-year cycle; 1976 saw a pretty flat September, and it generally maintained that through the rest of the year. That was followed by a rather nasty 1977. The same thing happened 100 years ago, where the market held in for the last quarter of 1906, followed by a financial panic in 1907.

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All this tension, coupled with what could be a nasty fall in the housing market, should make the next two months interesting as the US heads into the mid-term elections. History does not favour the President's party particularly if the economy is showing signs of weakening. Over the last 21 mid-terms there are only three recorded gains for the President's party - although one of them was in 2002, under Bush. The other two were in 1934 under Roosevelt and 1998 under Clinton. The record of the market is quite mixed: leading up to the mid-terms, the market experienced 10 ups and 11 downs. After the mid-terms to the end of the year, the market fell seven times and was up 14 times. (Source: Stock Trader's Almanac 2006).

Given the threat of the US falling into recession in 2007 as the housing market unravels, the thought that war could break out at the same time would only add to the problems. The US is already running a major budget deficit in the $300-$400 billion range, largely as a result of its defence budget, which is the world's largest, indeed larger than virtually every other defence budget in the world. The cost of the war in Iraq has already surpassed $300 billion. Another war would add billions more to these costs.

At the same time, the US faces huge infrastructure costs. In the public sector the US faces estimated infrastructure costs exceeding $1.6 trillion over five years. This was highlighted by the failures seen when Katrina broke the levees of New Orleans, creating the biggest natural disaster in US history. The levees of New Orleans were long cited as being a potential major problem and highly vulnerable in the event of a severe hurricane. Pleas to fix the problem were ignored as funds were diverted elsewhere, primarily to defence and Homeland Security.

None of this would be positive for the US$. Just as the housing market was overvalued, the US$ remains overvalued. Our chart highlights the potential huge head and shoulders topping pattern. A collapse of the US$ would of course be positive for gold and would start it on its trek to $1,000 and higher. Irrespective of any strength seen in the US$ or weakness in gold in the short term the long term trend for both the US$ and gold remains down and up.

This overvaluation of the US$ cannot be underestimated, irrespective of short-term considerations. A falling US$ would force the Federal Reserve to re-examine its interest rate policy and may force the Fed to hike rates to protect the US$, even as the economy starts sliding. If the Fed instead decided to flood the system with liquidity to counter the threat of recession, that could still be negative for the US$ and could touch off a bout of hyperinflation as the financial system is flooded with funds. Not having the old measurement of M3 around any more, it will be difficult to ascertain just how much the Fed is providing.

We are moving into dangerous times. As we have often noted, we are at the crossroads of several long term cycles including the well known four-year cycle in stocks, an 18-year cycle in stocks, the Kondratieff cycle for the economy and as well for stocks, and what may be a 72-year cycle that is characterized by major depressions such as we saw in the 1930s which was the possible last occurrence of the cycle. The next two months will begin to give us some sense of just how vulnerable we are. We are looking for a drop of roughly 20% in the major indices from today's levels for a low sometime into late October or early November.

- charts -

/...

[UpInArms]

53. interesting red finish with blather

hmmmm.... I was listening to NPR and they said that the DOW gained 8+ pts today to finish at 11,389... :wtf:

Dow 11,381.15 -1.76 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,183.75 -1.98 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,303.81 -0.46 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.732 -0.031 (-0.65%)

NYSE Volume 1,980,099,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,749,058,000

Stocks struggled to get any traction all session after a surprisingly strong month underpinned a sense of nervousness that carried into the close of trading on the last "dog" day of August. With September earmarked as the worst month of the year for all three of the major averages, according to The Stock Traders Almanac, coupled with another light volume day and heading into Friday's influential jobs data before a holiday weekend, buyers weren't exactly jumping at the chance to extend August's impressive gains ahead of such historically seasonal weakness.

Before the bell, the July core-PCE deflator -- known as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- rose just 0.1%, the smallest gain this year, mirroring the good July core-CPI data and lending further support for the Fed to remain on hold at its next meeting on September 20. July personal spending jumping 0.8%, the most since January, was also comforting for investors as it showed that economic growth has not weakened nearly as much as is often assumed.

Further, retailers posted a generally solid performance in August with shoppers scooping up back-to-school fashions. While Target (TGT 48.50 -0.08) was among the biggest names to miss analysts' expectations, teen retailers like American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS 38.60 +1.42) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 64.58 +1.23), as well as department stores like Federated (FD 38.06 +0.59) and Nordstrom (JWN 37.41 +2.13), were among today's standouts with strong results.

Nonetheless, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq turning in their its best August performances since 2000, as well as the Dow closing at a three-month high, the temptation to lock in some of those gains ahead of Friday's influential jobs data and a long holiday weekend underpinned a sense of nervousness throughout the session.

From a sector standpoint, Technology, the best performing sector in August (+8.4%), was among Thursday's worst performers. Only Energy fared worse as volatile oil prices ahead of the U.N. deadline for Iran to stop enriching uranium prompted investors to keep consolidating gains in one of this year's best performing sectors (+14.4%). Utilities was the only sector providing any notable upside leadership (+1.2%); but investors flocking to dividend-paying stocks, which typically provide protection in a falling market, spoke to the market's defensive mindset.BTK -0.7% DJ30 -1.76 DJTA +0.3% DJUA +1.2% NASDAQ -1.98 NQ100 -0.1% SOX -1.0% SP400 +0.4% SP500 -0.45 XOI -1.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1440/1570/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1231/2002/1.32 bln