Democrats Now Favored to Take Over DeLay’s Old Seat

[deadparrot]

The Texas Republican Party establishment has rallied around a single candidate, Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, in their unusual write-in campaign to salvage the 22nd Congressional District seat vacated in June by Tom DeLay, the former House majority leader.

But the extreme rarity of successful write-in campaigns for Congress and the presence of a solid Democratic nominee on the ballot in former Rep. Nick Lampson has prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the 22nd District race to Leans Democratic from No Clear Favorite.

The GOP faces a world of trouble in this race because of a serious miscalculation on the part of DeLay and his party colleagues.

Party officials initially were encouraged by DeLay’s decisions to renounce the nomination he had won in the March 7 primary and to resign from Congress on June 9. Though long one of the most powerful figures in Texas and national politics, DeLay faced a still-pending trial for alleged state campaign finance violations and ethics controversies stemming from his past ties to now-convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/democratsnowfavoredtotakeoverdelaysoldseat

[babylonsister]

1. Rep. Nick Lampson ALL THE WAY to replace the bugman! nt

[saltpoint]

5. I second that. Go, Nick.

[longship]

2. Along with over two dozen other House seats.

We pretty much have a lock on the House at this time. Could be a tsunami, with upwards of fifty.

Senate is looking better every day. How about seven or eight?

[Ignacio Upton]

3. We have a chance of taking the House

But I doubt we'll take back the Senate. I have as many as five seats to defend on our side (MD, MN, NJ, WA, and possibly MI.) Still, in both cases, I won't start crowing until at least mid-October, if the in event that we're still doing as well with only 2-3 left.

[longship]

6. Do you think things are going to remain static?

There's something going on this year that's new. Almost everything ChimpCo does is having a negative effect for them. Events that would add ten or more points to their approval a year or two ago are having nil effect. It's all falling apart for them.

The Repukes have to be scared because they are realizing that they've already played all their political games and things aren't improving. They know that anything serious happens and things are likely to totally melt down for them. Another terror attack, another war, almost anything would mean political catastrophe beyond what is already happening. The only thing that they have left is hunker down and "Stay the Course" and hope that things will be close enough for them to weather the storm.

But that's not what's happening. In the House of Representatives, it is no longer close. Barring a Dem meltdown, there will be a clear Dem majority in January. Novakula predicted a 25 seat turnover. He cited a prominent Repuke vote counter as saying 26-30 seats. CNN and Bloomberg have chimed in with their House predictions--Dem takeover imminent.

All this is two weeks *before* the campaign kicks into high gear. That, in itself, is astounding.

The only way this doesn't happen is if the Dems f*ck it up. With Dean at the helm, I just don't see that happening. Now we all know why we supported him so strongly for DNC chair. His fifty state strategy is working far beyond what any of us could have imagined. It's going to guarantee the House for the Dems and give use very good shapes for six or seven new Dem Senators.

[sofa king]

7. I hope you're right.

But I'll be honest: I don't see it happening. You don't steal elections, steal two trillion dollars, murder your own citizens, and cover it all up just to turn it over to people who might prosecute you.

I say if Diebold can't hold back the tide, it's martial law by January.

[longship]

10. You can't steal fifty elections!

And not be detected.

Yes, you can game a couple of contests if they are spread out a little (OH, FL, NM). And you can target a couple of races here and there when you have prior knowledge of a narrow margin (E.G., GA Senate).

But this year is different than a presidential, winner-takes-all, event. There are so many competitive races now (and more happening every week) that many which are close are not going to be, and many which are being predicted as relatively safe will not be.

The thing about this year that's most different is that the polls aren't going to be able to predict the outcome very accurately. There is all sorts of anecdotal evidence of a turnover in public opinion that just isn't reaching the pollsters, pundits, and journalists. If you can't predict what's going to happen, you're not going to be able to fix the electoral machines before the fact. You don't want to be ham-fisted about it because then you'll end up in prison. It's a high risk venture so you take only the few close races which will make the difference.

That isn't going to work this year because there are too many races and nobody's going to be able to accurately predict which ones are going to be close.

The deficit is too great this time.

[Barrett808]

20. From your lips to the Goddess's ears. n/t

[IdaBriggs]

21. 12 Points was narrow lead? Wow!

"Accusations of fraud have been made in a Project Censored article, claiming that "On Nov. 3, 2002, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Democratic Sen. Max Cleland with a 49-to-44 point lead over Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss. The next day, Chambliss, despite trailing by 5 points, ended up winning by a margin of 53 to 46 percent. This was, in other words, an unbelievable 12-point turn around over the course of one day!" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Cleland )

[longship]

26. Okay, now do that same thing with 60 races.

Actually, by November it'll be more than 60, but for the sake of argument let's use 60.

This is nothing short of rampant and country-wide electoral shenanigans. Do you think that the populace would stand for that kind of flagrant law breaking on the part of a single political party? Especially one which the public now increasingly despises.

If the Repukes try what you suggest they will plunge the country into the most serious Constitutional crisis since the Civil War. Are you really predicting something like that? Or, are you actually wanting it to happen? I hope not.

I prefer to think that the Repukes realize that they can't game the system this time. They might target a couple of races here and there. But they will not be able to stop the now inevitable tsunami. It's just too big for them.

Note that I am not saying that Dems shouldn't protect against this very thing. We're going to have to document every single electoral violation.

on edit: Mea culpa on GA Senate gap.

[IdaBriggs]

32. I'm a programmer. It takes one or two lines of code, and I can

use "copy/paste" to make it work. Its not difficult, and has already been going on. Please go visit the "Election Reform" forum for more information on the topic.

[TankLV]

30. Eye yam sofa king wee tod did!

Couldn't resist!

[sofa king]

31. Heh.

I chose that name many moons ago exactly because I got burned by that little joke. And lots of times, I feel I've lived up to it.

[Gman]

4. Gee! Ya Think??

There's a friggin' WRITE-IN GOP candidate! Its safe to call that one for the Dems. I don't know if reluctancy to call that one for the Dems is because their heart is with the GOP or if they're scared Ol' Tom may reach up from his political grave and snatch a victory for the GOP.

[grizmaster]

12. nothing is ever "safe" in a Delay district

let's not forget the criminal lengths Delay and his cohorts will go to. I won't count that seat in the win column till I see a dem sworn in.

[midnight]

16. You have to be so careful with these folks.

Look at what is going on in the 50th congressional dist. of California. They swore the Republican in before the votes were certified. They have all kinds of bobbing and weaving of the constitution going on.

[lovuian]

8. Awesome!!!

Thanks Tom !!!

[Judi Lynn]

9. When does DeLay go to court, anyway? AFTER the election?

Don't say he has managed to get it put off until after November.

Texas could use some reminders before then of how far out of line the Texas DeLay Repblicans got, in case they're inclined to overlook it. They need to be reminded of how classless they really are.

[texpatriot2004]

11. Excellent nm

[warrens]

13. The House is over

Now, let's take the fucking Senate too.

[Beetwasher]

14. Pardon Me While I LAUGH MY ASS OFF FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR!!!!

:rofl:

[Toots]

15. When all the chicks are hatched I will start my counting....

Not before.. I have been too disappointed too many times to feel very optimistic now. I will continue to have hope though...

[Balderdash]

17. Poetic Justice

:kick:

[PassingFair]

18. Let's not forget to thank the man who shoved the Bugman

out of the floorboards,

Richard Morrison!

I was going through my old check book registers the other
night and found a check made out to him and couldn't remember
who he was!

He took 43% OF THE VOTE FROM THE BUGMAN
IN HIS OWN DISTRICT IN 04!

http://southpaw.goodshow.net/archives/001401.html

He should be running again, but you know how THAT goes.....

Oh well....

Good Luck Lampson!

[mkb]

19. Think About Things Carefully To Help Situation

     As far as I'm concerned, this is more good news.
     Many people may be confused, including myself about the
complicated world we live in, but I think everyone who
considers themselves a decent and fair-minded person should
think as hard as they can about what decisions to make to make
things work out the best way possible.
     There are many levels of understanding that exist, from
the simple, to the metaphorical or complex, and those that
wish to contribute to the best outcome possible have the
ability to impact life by understanding things the best that
they can and acting in the right manner based on that
understanding.
     The band Rush, who I think unfortunately made a positive
reference to Ayn Rand, coined the phrase "...if you
choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."
     Even though Rush may be on the wrong side politically,
those who are good people I think need to consider that
statement, because the world is full of activity, both good
and bad, and those that want a benign and happy existence for
as much of life as possible must have their activities
contribute more than those who would selfishly ruin the
greater good.
     Dick Cheney was making a speech on C-Span this morning,
and he mentioned the word "teamwork".  Now, I think
I've progressed enough in my learning to know that Cheney
represents the violent and selfish people of the world.  That
demonstrates that selfish and violent people, like the Nazi's
did, use teamwork too to accomplish their evil objectives. 
Fair minded and decent people need our "team" to
succeed in creating the best situation possible, realizing
that for now, evil is still a powerful force.
     I suggest you help things get better based on your level
of understanding, and you should probably try to keep learning
as much as possible to improve your ability to help.  I think
we can say there are many complexities to uncover, but the
basic reality that seems apparent is that the middle or
perhaps somewhat left of center approach to politics, with
individual freedom established as well, will be the best
choice at this time. 
     The ability of Democrats to achieve victories is our best
hope, even though there will be many problems to deal with no
matter who wins.  Thinking things through and finding the
right ways to get involved are what we need to do.  Life is
full of change, and making the right decisions, keeping in
mind that bad people are monitoring what you do, is very
important.   

[samsingh]

22. that would be a nice takeover

[yellowcanine]

23. Write in Shelley Sekula-Gibbs on a touch screen? Good luck with that.

[Dob Bole]

24. That's the ONLY reason I'm optimistic...

I'm very cautious with my political forecasting, but I'm usually right. TX-22 is 64% Republican...but Dems will definitely win this time. Not only is Shelley Sekula-Gibbs hard to spell (and I've won 3 spelling bees in my time on earth), but people voting a straight Republican ticket may not have the option to write in at all, as the choice for a GOP representative will be empty. And that's before you even factor in the Libertarian candidate, or several other people who might sieze the opportunity to mount a write-in campaign at the last minute.

In fact, DUers...if you live in TX-22, please run as a write-in candidate, for some right-wing reason. Please.

[Xenotime]

25. And now it begins...

I lookforward to more headlines like that.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[samsingh]

28. i so very hope so

[TankLV]

29. Ha Ha! Sweet!

This one's extremely delicious if/when it turns out to be true...