Tropical Storm Ernesto threatens Caribbean

[uppityperson]

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=scienceNews&storyID=2006-08-25T215502Z_01_N25201567_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-STORMS.xml&archived=False

The fifth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Ernesto, formed in the Caribbean on Friday and could become a hurricane threatening U.S. oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, forecasters said.

The governments of Haiti and Jamaica issued storm watches, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said residents of the wealthy Cayman Islands and of western Cuba should also be on guard.

Tropical storms do not have powerful winds, but they can bring heavy rains that pose a danger for undeveloped nations, like Haiti, with poor building standards.Energy traders also watched the storm because of the potential for it to strengthen as it neared the Gulf, where hurricanes temporarily knocked out much of U.S. crude oil and natural gas production last year. The Gulf provides about a quarter of U.S. oil and gas output.

The Miami-based hurricane center forecast that Ernesto would become a Category 1 hurricane, with 65-knot, or 74-mile-per-hour (119-km-per-hour), winds, by Monday, a day before the anniversary of Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and killed about 1,500 people...(bit more)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605.html

The models
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray a conflicting picture of what may happen. Three of the four major global models--UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS--dissipate or severely weaken the storm by Monday. The Canadian model, which has been the most aggressive in making Ernesto a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, now keeps the system a weak tropical storm all the way to landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. The European Center model has a similar forecast. Oddly, the large upper-level trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean is forecast by these models to move west away from Ernesto, and an upper level high pressure system to build on top of the storm. This situation should act to lower the shear and aid in intensification, and that it what the official NHC forecast is calling for. It is unusual for the models to forecast a favorable shear environment, yet dissipate a storm, and serves to show the limitations of these models in making hurricane intensity forecasts. I have very little confidence in any of the Ernesto intensity forecasts--including the official NHC forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. High wind shear could still destroy this storm on Sunday. Ernesto should slowly intensify through Saturday, but beyond that, I have no idea. It's best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. All portions the U.S. coast from the Florida Keys to Brownsville, Texas are at risk from this storm...(more@link) http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=481&tstamp=200608

[uppityperson]

1. Historical tracking from wunderground.

[yankeeinlouisiana]

2. Well, this sucks!

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/image.ssf?/hurricane/alerts/watch2.html

This link shows it heading towards NO. Sorry, Florida, but it has to turn east.

Not again, we can't take it.

:cry:

[TheWatcher]

3. y God I was just going to comment on that

One of the tracking models has it going directly through New Orleans.

How could this possibly happen again?

My prayers go out to the Big Easy.

Please not again.

Please.

[gorbal]

4. GW will HELP florida

And at least Cuba will be prepared and properly evacuated. (Interesting that the name is "Ernesto"

[Dr.Phool]

5. Hurricane "Che"!!!

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

6. Just in the right place and time for a 1-year

suprise party for New Orleans.

How sick would that be?

[Roland99]

7. Lookout, NOLA!

[aaronbees]

8. I hope Ernesto peters out....

Best, safe wishes to all in its path. TY for the Weather Underground link; I always enjoy Jeff Masters' blog posts on such events.

[uppityperson]

9. you are welcome, it looks like Ernesto could go anywhere

I like wunderground for decent hurricane info.

[bigluckyfeet]

13. Here is another Good Site for weather

http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

[HeeBGBz]

10. I think we may be screwed.

I may be premature, however.

Does lightning strike twice???

[Jacobin]

20. Yes.

Pensacola got hit by two hurricanes within about two weeks a few years back. They weren't Cat 5's but they were bad enough to cause a lot of problems.

I certainly hope this one fizzles out or hits a lightly populated area.

[barb162]

11. My favorite local meteorologist just said on TV that one model

said this would be a cat 4. He seemed worried about this one.

[Odin2005]

12. Oh Fuck.

If it turns a little to the right of it's projected path it will be Katrina 2.0

[freedomburn]

14. First big hurricane of the season scheduled to hit Jamaica tomorrow

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20060826T000000-0500_111990_OBS_JAMAICA_ON_STORM_WATCH.asp

Jamaica on storm watch
Ernesto forecast to pass over island tomorrow morning
ALICIA DUNKLEY, Observer staff reporter
Saturday, August 26, 2006


JAMAICA was yesterday placed on storm watch as the nation braced itself for Tropical Storm Ernesto, which was forecast to pass over the island by Sunday morning.

Ernesto, at 8:00 last night, had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. The fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, it was centred 285 miles (460 kilometres) south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and 600 miles (965 kilometres) east-southeast of the Jamaican capital, Kingston.

The storm was moving west-northwest at nearly 15 mph (24 kph) and was also expected to bring rain to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Netherlands Antilles.

Jamaican fishermen and other marine interests on the cays and banks, especially those on the Morant and Pedro Cays, were told to evacuate immediately and return to the mainland.


...


It COULD be another Katrina. It seems to be headed that direction anyway. How much does God hate New Orleans?

[uppityperson]

15. here is some from an earlier link, with other links

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2475775&mesg_id=2475775

[OwnedByFerrets]

16. Please, lets dont spread fear.

Lets wait for more information before we declare another Katrina. :)

[HeeBGBz]

18. No, lets spread preparedness

Because Ernesto is coming to the northern gulf coast and there is nothing standing in the way except more fuel.

We have about a week to get ready.

[longship]

17. Not yet a hurricane.

It likely will become one, but let's not jump the gun, the shark, or to conclusions.

[w4rma]

19. Are the levies fixed and reinforced yet? (nt)

[alfredo]

21. Remember, there are tons upon tons of loose debris

piled up around NO. Imagine what a 100 mph wind would do to all that.

[uppityperson]

22. Remeber, there are tons os loose debris around Mississippi coast

This morning it looks like there are 3 possibilities predicted. Ernesto peters out (so to speak), Ernesto hangs out in the gulf for a week and who knows then, Ernesto heads towards Florida panhandle, or something else. Guess that is 4. Anyway, keep watching and be prepared. No, no need to panic or spread fear, Yes, is need to be prepared and watchful though.

Edited to add graphic of model forecasts.

[alfredo]

23. I was pointing out that because we have not cleaned up

the mess from Katrina and Rita, the rubble remaining will become projectiles when the next storm arrives.

Looks like the projections from you maps shows "good news" for the regions hit last year. Of course that gives little comfort for those who could be in the crosshairs.

[uppityperson]

24. I know, I was adding in Mississippi since most of focus is NOLA

Then there are the places south of NOLA that are barely above sealevel, still don't have power, water, groceries, community kitchens and a lot of mess still. Mississippi coast is still not cleaned up, and while NOLA gets a lot of media and popular coverage, is still greatly in need. Just adding in Mississippi. Reading about Ernesto, still could be anywhere in gulf.

[alfredo]

25. I was hoping we could get through this season without the

constant dread. Until this week, we have been lucky. Up here in Ky we don't really need the rain a hurricane can bring. At least we want it to hold off until the crops are in.

[tammywammy]

26. Current Forecast Models

[uppityperson]

27. updated, Haiti to get slammed, then head into gulf, LA-Key West (?)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=483&tstamp=200608
at least, that is the latest update. Continue to moniter.