STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 25 August

[54anickel]

Friday August 25, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 880 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2071 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1771 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1732
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 23, 2006

Dow... 11,304.46 +6.56 (+0.067%)
Nasdaq... 2,137.11 +2.45 (+0.11%)
S&P 500... 1,296.06 +3.07 (+0.24%)
Gold future... 628.50 -4.50 (-0.71%)
30-Year Bond 4.939% -0.011 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.803% -0.01 (-0.21%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.31 Change +0.05 (+0.06%)

Bernanke Not Likely To Cause Ripples in the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Bernanke_Not_Likely_To_Cause_1156455040023.html

US Dollar

The US dollar has become practically immune to the continual disappointments in US economic data. We started the week off with a sharp drop in existing home sales and today, we saw another fall in the sales of new homes along with a weaker than expected durable goods report. The signs of a slowdown in the US economy are clear, but the extent of the slowdown is not. This is the main reason why the US dollar has remained strong. Traders are still holding out for the possibility of another rate increase this year by the Federal Reserve. However given the recent trend of economic data and oil prices, we doubt that there is enough evidence to convince Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to change his mind. His recent silence since the last monetary policy meeting has caused some of his critics to back off. To resurrect the talk of another rate hike in the near future would at the same time resurrect speculation about his credibility. The lower price of oil has helped to alleviate inflationary pressures while the deterioration in the housing market raises the risk of a housing market driven recession. Taking a closer look at today’s data, new home sales fell 4.3 percent, which is the second slowest increase in home sales this year. Like yesterday’s existing home sales report, inventories jumped significantly and in this case, hit a new record high. At this rate, prices are going to have to come down significantly. Although prices of existing homes have fallen, the average median price of a new home has increased from $229,200 last year to $230,000 this year. Durable goods also fell by 2.4 percent in July, which was far sharper than the -0.5 percent forecast. However, the details of the report were not as discouraging with orders excluding transportation increasing by a more than expected 0.5 percent. Overall, this is still indicative of decent, albeit slowing growth, which is the best way to characterize the current state of the US economy. The EUR/USD will probably continue to range trade until we see more evidence of how US consumers have been behaving. Once the consumer tips over, the dollar should follow as well.

...more...

[54anickel]

9. Good morning UIA and all. Sorry to keep you waiting today. My bad,

had a late night and kept hitting the snooze button this AM. :hangover:

Just put the coffee on, can't wait for that first cup.

[bahrbearian]

12. We're just glad your here.

[54anickel]

14. Thank you Bahrbearian, and welcome to the thread. I can't help but

feel a bit guilty, being late to the "office" to cover for Ozy on the 2 days he needed someone to cover his back. Yesterday the house was out of power, today I was.

Thank you again for your kind words. :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

[bahrbearian]

17. Yeah ,,I heard about the storms.. I'm on the west coast,, so a little

delay doesn't matter ,, hope things are all well and good.

[UpInArms]

13. good morning, 54anickel!

I had them all cued up - and have to take off in just a few minutes -

life has altered a bunch in this household - the only constant in life is change (at least that is what my grandmother told me)

:hi:

[54anickel]

15. Have a good one. Thanks for the updates. Hope to see you back

later in the day. :hi:

[54anickel]

49. New Home Sales Bite The Dust! - Today's Pfenning

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=911

snip>

First of all... New Home Sales in the U.S. for July printed yesterday following up July's Existing Home Sales debacle from the previous day. New Home Sales fell 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.072 million units. This reading comes below market expectations of a 1.100 million unit sales. And.... They fell 21.6% on a year-over-year basis. This falls under the category of... "Biting The Dust"! However... after this report printed... The dollar rallied...

I heard some pundits say that the dollar rallied because the median house price edged up 0.3%... But Holy Home Sales Batman, isn't this a significant slowing from the recent rapid pace of increase? Correct, Robin... In fact, the number of homes on the market at current selling rates (a measure of supply) rose relative to last month's level and currently stands at 6.5 months at the current sales rate. This level is the highest since November 1995.

This news should have been very negative for the dollar... Especially following up on the Existing Home Sales falling 4.1%... But NOOOOOO! To top off the awful looking data, Durable Goods for July fell more than was expected... Durables fell 2.4% in July... But once again the spin doctors placed their imprint on this report too, taking out the Transportation piece that fell 9.7%... They said that Durables gained during the month... What? Of course last month when the Durable Goods orders data printed, the spin doctors lauded the 7.1% increase in Transportations... But since it didn't suit them this month, they decided to take it out...

When is the American public going to put their foot down and say... They won't accept trumped up data any longer? Probably never... So... With each report I sit here and point out the discrepancies... But nobody cares... Or I should say, the markets don't care! So... To recap yesterday's events... We had an awful showing in Durable Goods, and New Home Sales, but the dollar rallied... Give me a break!

more...

[UpInArms]

2. Data points to slowing economy

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2006-08-24T182031Z_01_N24225310_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes and orders for durable goods both fell more than expected in July, providing further evidence of slowing U.S. economic growth.

U.S. stock prices slipped and Treasury debt prices gained as markets saw the data as supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next month.

"It suggests that the economy is cooling off," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons in St. Louis.

"The Fed will stay on the sidelines," Thayer said.

In another sign that markets anticipate cooling in the economy, yields for longer-dated Treasury securities were lower than for shorter-term securities.

<snip>

When defense orders were stripped out, durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 1.9 percent, as defense aircraft and parts orders rose 9 percent. Analysts were expecting a 0.5 percent rise in durable goods orders excluding defense.

...more...

[54anickel]

3. Market WrapUp for Thursday, August 24th - Martin Goldberg

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

The bull market in gold stocks which began in late 2000 is still in progress. There is no reason to believe that it will not continue its long term bull trend. While this analyst doesn’t “own” Elliott Wave (EW) theory, an interpretation of the theory leads to strong technical evidence to suggest that the HUI is nearing the completion of a correction against the secular bull trend that will resume in a relatively short amount of time, probably measured in weeks. I’ll make my case in tonight’s article.

snip>

However, for the long term, it is important for investors to not lose site of the big picture which is a long term and relatively straight decisive uptrend. This is a “trend” that has not shown any signs of abating and should serve as a reminder that as long as position sizes are appropriate, the most important yet difficult thing to do in a bull market is to hold your position.

Today’s Market

Although these ending days in August tend to be famous for low trading volume (today was no exception), and indecisive action (also true today), there was motivated selling in two important sectors – the transports and retailers. The transports were down over 1% and there were numerous retailers – J.C. Penney, Nordstrom, Target, Federated – that sold off in heavy to normal volume. The action in many of the retail stocks seems to confirm the suspicion that last week’s rally was nothing more than a short squeeze. Note the action in retailer, Urban Outfitters. The 5-day rally was decisively reversed and today, two key moving averages were taken out.

I suppose that the low volume market will be affected next week by the Jackson Hole, WY central bankers meeting this weekend. Rather than waste your time with tuning into cable business news for the rhetoric, let me save you some time:

more...

[UpInArms]

4. Ex-Comverse CEO is reported found in Sri Lanka

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/3c1mtH7ztcDrXZ273wFG2Sp?siteid=mktw&dist=TNMostRead

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Fugitive Jacob "Kobi" Alexander, the former chief executive of Comverse Technology Ltd., has reportedly been hiding in a village in Sri Lanka to avoid U.S. prosecution on fraud charges.

Alexander, who founded Comverse 22 years ago, was discovered by a private investigator, the Israeli daily Ma'ariv reported. The investigator said Alexander probably viewed the island of Sri Lanka as a good place to hide because of its remote location off the south coast of India and a decades-old civil war that has scared off many Westerners.

The investigator, identified as Moshe Buller, said he was retained by a U.S. venture-capital investment fund that wanted to stop the drop in Comverse's stock price. He traced Alexander after the high-tech veteran placed a phone call to Israel via the Skype Internet service.

"American companies are scared that the collapse of Comverse would cause them many losses. He caused irreversible damages to many companies," Buller told another publication, Ynet, the online edition of the Israeli newspaper Yediot Achronot.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Oil jumps $1 on U.S. Gulf storm threat (to $73.49 bbl)

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-08-25T100636Z_01_SP336261_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil leapt $1 on Friday as a storm brewing in the Caribbean threatened to sweep through the U.S. Gulf next week and menace oil supplies yet to recover from last year's hurricanes.

Support also came from Iran's nuclear row with the West that could prompt United Nations sanctions against the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, although Russia ruled out such punitive action for now.

U.S. crude was up $1.13 at $73.49 a barrel by 0948 GMT, after gaining 60 cents on Thursday. London Brent rose 93 cents to $73.61.

A spinning band of squalls in the Caribbean was on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Ernesto and was expected to head northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

It was a year ago that hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf and temporarily shut in a quarter of U.S. oil production.

"Everybody came in and saw the story about the potential of this storm," said Kevin Blemkin, a broker at Man Financial. "People get a little bit excited about these things and we go from strength to strength."

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. U.K. press: Oil companies hiding pipeline corrosion damage

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BFEE56F7E%2D8BBE%2D4509%2D9BA1%2DC1C77A0A6A9E%7D&symbol=

The oil industry is hushing up the extent to which corrosion is eating into pipelines and hitting production, the head of the Royal Society of Chemistry has told The Times.

Richard Pike, who spent 25 years working for BP PLC (BP) before becoming a consultant to a number of global oil and gas companies, said that some of the world's largest oilfields had cut production or been shut down recently so that corroded pipelines could be fixed before they leaked, the newspaper says.

He declined to name the companies involved because of confidentiality agreements signed during his work as a consultant. But he said that major repair projects had been initiated in the Middle East, Russia and India, according to The Times.

Pike estimated that the cumulative effect of these closures could be equivalent to BP's recent shutdown at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, which has focused world attention on the issue of corroding oil equipment and its potential to cause an environmental catastrophe, The Times writes. According to the newspaper, Pike said: "People are keeping this quiet and just getting on with it because there is an awful risk that the outside world will overreact. They don't want to broadcast it because the reaction can get out of control."

...a bit more...

[Ghost Dog]

56. Gulf oil, gas trails pre-Katrina production

http://www.tbpetroleum.com.br/novosite/internas/noticias.asp?id=1308

Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production is still recovering from massive damage inflicted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year and the industry is nervously watching to see what this year holds in store.

A "blessedly quiet" storm season thus far has allowed exploration companies and refineries to continue repairs and bring damaged offshore rigs back into service, said Caryl Fagot, public affairs specialist with the Gulf of Mexico regional office of the US Minerals Management Service in New Orleans.

As the 2006 hurricane season enters what is typically the most active period, there has been no tropical weather threat to the Gulf of Mexico. The National Weather Service is still predicting an unusually busy hurricane season, but has downgraded its initial prediction of as many as six major hurricanes to three or four.

As of late June, offshore oil production was down 12 percent from last year and gas extraction was running nine percent below normal, Fagot said. The numbers were the most recent available, although Fagot noted that more storm-damaged drilling sites had come back into service in the last two months.

"I`m sure those numbers have gone down, but it got to the point where we didn`t feel it was necessary for the companies to continue reporting" their progress in repairing shut-in wells, she said.

<snip>

Many of the platforms damaged or destroyed last year, which are a fraction of the more than 4,000 offshore platforms in the gulf, will not come back into service, said Michael Kearns, a spokesperson for the National Ocean Industries Association.

Many were built before 1988, when the federal government introduced more stringent construction guidelines, or were located in low-producing tracts.

"We`re probably at a point where the things that could be fixed have been fixed," Kearns said, adding that any improvement in the numbers will likely come from new production.

Some large, deep-water platforms were shut down by the storms, however, most notably Shell Oil Co.`s Mars platform. Mars resumed partial service in May, and is now producing 145,000 barrels of oil and 155 million cubic feet of gas per day, a 10 percent increase above prior production rates, according to a company statement.

<snip>

Even though oil production has remained relatively stable for some time, several factors have converged to make the current market volatile, including the partial shutdown of BP Exploration Alaska, Inc.`s Prudhoe Bay production, continued violence in the Middle East and fresh memories of last year`s deadly hurricane season.

In such an environment, even a dip of one or two percentage points in production can have larger reverberations in the market, said Fadel Gheit, an oil and gas industry analyst at Oppenheim and Co.

"When you have a tight situation, everything counts," he said.

"It`s a very delicately balanced market," Gheit said. "If we have a two million-to-three million barrels per day shortage for any meaningful period of time, say 30 or 40 days, I guarantee we will see prices of a hundred bucks" per barrel.

A large stockpile in the nation`s strategic reserves has helped stabilize prices, he said. But the calm is tenuous: several weeks ago, a small disturbance in the gulf sparked fears that another tropical storm could develop.

"Everybody ran for the hills, and gas prices spiked by 20 percent in one day," Gheit said.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

57. Oil firms mull US Gulf evacuations ahead of storm

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2006-08-25T172551Z_01_N25211548_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ENERGY-BP-STORM-DC.XML&from=business

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Oil companies were considering evacuating workers from platforms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico on Friday ahead of Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane next week.

BP Plc (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) may start evacuating nonessential personnel from U.S. Gulf of Mexico drilling rigs on Friday, a company spokesman said.

BP's production in the Gulf would not be affected by any evacuations from drilling rigs, spokesman Hugh Depland said.

Only rigs with long shutdown times were considering evacuating nonessentials, Depland said. The rigs would continue operating until drilling equipment was shutdown and essential personnel removed.

U.S. oil and natural gas producer Apache Corp. (APA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it was closely monitoring the storm and its progress.

<snip>

U.S. oil major Chevron Corp. (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it was watching the storm carefully and has no immediate plans to evacuate workers.

<snip>

Leading U.S. refiner Valero Energy Corp. (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday it did not anticipate "significant effects" from Tropical Depression 5 on operations at its 275,000 barrel per day (bpd) Aruba refinery.

/more...

[UpInArms]

7. Spitzer urges rejecting Grasso bid to delay trial for excessive pay

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-25T012355Z_01_N242229_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-GRASSO-SPITZER.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has asked a state appeals court not to grant former New York Stock Exchange chairman Richard Grasso's bid to delay a trial over his $187.5 million pay package, according to documents obtained by Reuters on Thursday.

Spitzer was responding to Grasso's appeal of a decision by State Supreme Court Justice Charles Ramos to hold a nonjury trial on whether the compensation was reasonable under state nonprofit law, before considering other claims, according to the documents. Ramos also pushed back the trial's start date to Oct. 16 from Sept. 5.

Grasso asked the appeals court to delay the bench trial while he appeals, and also pending the resolution of his earlier appeal to dismiss Spitzer's excessive pay claim, according to the documents, dated Aug. 23.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Vice, necessity stocks pick up in housing slowdown

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2006-08-24T222104Z_01_N24428888_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-HOUSING-CONSUMER-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A fall in U.S. house prices would hurt spending across the board, but companies catering to Americans' necessities and vices would do better than others.

U.S. homeowners feeling poorer is bad news for the stocks of retailers and leisure companies, but consumers will always need to buy groceries, brush their teeth and feed their addictions, like cigarette smoking.

So companies selling consumer goods, food, health care, tobacco and alcohol are better placed to weather the impact of a slowing housing sector than others, analysts said.

"The interesting sectors are ... soaps, suds and cereal," said Don Gher of Bellevue, Washington-based Coldstream Capital Management. "Investors are looking for companies that will deliver even in an economic downturn. And typically those are companies that are aligned with selling the basic products or consumer staples."

The housing slowdown has been faster and steeper than expected. The market is flush with unsold homes, as real estate speculators try to unload properties they bought in hopes of a quick profit.

...more...

[stop the bleeding]

10. Good morning everyone :)

:donut:

Wars, Storms, and rising oil - oh my

[54anickel]

18. And Ben - U.S. stock futures flat; Bernanke in focus

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060825/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc_62

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures suggested a flat market open on Friday as investors focused on a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and higher oil prices due to severe weather threatening the Gulf of Mexico.

Stocks could receive support from Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD - news), the largest home-improvement retailer whose shares rose in Europe after it announced it was adding $3.5 billion to its stock buyback program. For details, see

In addition, Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC - news) will be eyed after Britain's Lloyds TSB (LLOY.L) and Barclays (BARC.L) rose on speculation that the U.S. bank might make a bid for a UK bank, traders said.

Investors will look for clues about the outlook for interest rates in Bernanke's speech. The Fed chairman is set to address an economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at 10 a.m. New York time (1400 GMT).

snip>

"Given where we are in the Fed cycle, people are looking for any kind of insight. Is this really a pause? Have we stopped?" said Barry Ritholtz, fund manager at Ritholtz Capital Partners. The speech "has become particularly important given the horrific data we've seen about housing this week," he added.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Bernanke, Back at Jackson Hole, Grapples With House-Boom Legacy

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a_6x8sRb89jY&refer=us

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The first time Ben S. Bernanke appeared at the Federal Reserve's annual mountain retreat seven years ago, the Princeton University economist's message urging a hands-off approach to asset prices sent his reputation soaring.

Bernanke, Fed chairman since February, takes the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, podium today after two days of reports showing home sales and prices retreating after a five-year boom spurred by the strategy he advocated.

The results of that policy are now complicating his task as he attempts to maintain growth while wrestling down prices. Given real estate's importance to the economy, the Fed may have to hold interest rates steady even as inflation exceeds Bernanke's comfort zone of 1 percent to 2 percent, excluding food and energy.

``Bernanke has maintained his academic view that asset prices are indicators and not something to target,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. At the same time, ``the Fed is taking into account the recent slowdown in housing prices and sales when it looks to set policy.''

snip>

Bernanke, 52, speaks today at 10 a.m. Washington time. His and other scholars' papers and remarks will deal with how emerging markets are affecting industrialized economies and their policies. The conference finishes tomorrow.

[54anickel]

29. Bernanke Extols Perks of Globalization

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4141122.html

JACKSON, Wyo. — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged policymakers Friday to resist pushing for protectionist measures that would crimp globalization and the increased trade and higher living standards it could spur.

"Further progress in global economic integration should not be taken for granted," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to an economics conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

"Geopolitical concerns, including international tensions and the risks of terrorism, already constrain the pace of worldwide economic integration and may do so even more in the future," he said.

Bernanke's remarks come as trade tensions have heightened between the United States and China and global trade talks have recently stalled. Americans have grown increasingly anxious about the potential to lose their jobs to competitors in China and India, two quickly emerging economic giants.

Against that backdrop, U.S. policymakers _ as politicians have through the centuries _ may be tempted to enact protectionist measures that would seek to slow globalization. But that would be unwise, Bernanke said.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

36. Bernanke says globalization benefits face threats

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-08-25T141828Z_01_N25326133_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-UPDATE-1.XML

<snip>

His remarks, which offered a wide overview of the history of economic integration from the Roman Empire on, did not touch on the current outlook for the U.S. economy or Fed policy.

The Fed chief said it was "natural" for workers hurt by globalization to push back.

"The challenge for policy-makers is to ensure that the benefits of global economic integration are sufficiently widely shared -- for example, by helping displaced workers get the necessary training to take advantage of new opportunities," he said.

/more...

Full text of the address here: http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007060.shtml

[AnneD]

37. Every time I hear of a meeting such as these...

I think of that scene in Blazing Saddle where Mel Brooks as Gov Lepetomain yells "We gotta do something to protect our phoney baloney jobs...harrumphff". The location may have changed but the players are the same...don't care if is Davo, Jackson Hole, Versaille...etc it is still the same game. They want to keep their power and money and give us just enough to keep us from rising up in revolt.

[54anickel]

47. Heh, whenever I read their jawboning I think of the camp fire scene.

Nothing but flatulence coming from their pie-holes.

[Ghost Dog]

51. "keep us from rising up in revolt"

Yeah, that's certainly the subtext I'm reading in there... Maybe they're just a little more worried now than they'd like to let on.

[AnneD]

64. Hey Ghost Dog,

:hi: good to see you back. I have had that uneasy feeling every since this New World Oreder (say wasn't that Bush I) and all these free trade agreement and G 8 Summits. Seem to me that the workers in BOTH countries get screwed and the Corps rake in the buck and dodge the laws on both sides. I am all for trade but I think the low men on the totem pole are SOL as they say. I think there has been a lot of playing fast and loose among the banks and it is catching up with these putzes. And it will be the average joes that will be left holding the bag.

[54anickel]

16. Will credit market be up in ARMs?

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/082506dnbusdimartino.2cd19b8.html


If your adjustable-rate mortgage will reset next year – as $1 trillion worth of ARMs will – you're gritting your teeth. The interest rate that seemed so enticing four years ago is about to rise, along with your monthly payment.

That has the potential to affect consumer spending, since households will have less cash to spend. The question is, how much?

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius reported the answer recently: Not much.

"The maximum direct impact on cash flow from ARMs resetting over the next several years is fairly small in the context of total U.S. consumer spending," he wrote.

How small?

For the $1 trillion in ARMs that reset in 2007, rates will rise from about 3.4 percent to the current 5.8 percent. This increase implies an extra $24 billion in annual mortgage payments.

Worst-case scenario is that this $24 billion is sliced off from consumer spending in its entirety. Even then, this would amount to only about 0.3 percent of consumer spending, which is running at a 2.5 percent growth rate.

BUT....more.....

[54anickel]

19. Longtime 401(k) Savers Sit on Six-Figure Nest Eggs

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-401k25aug25,1,7112196.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Persistence pays.

The average nest egg for people who have been in 401(k) plans for at least six years topped $100,000 for the first time, according to a survey released Thursday.

Their account balances averaged $102,014, up 9.6% from $93,085 in last year's survey.

"The discipline of saving pays off," said Sarah Holden, senior economist with the Investment Company Institute, a mutual fund trade group that sponsored the study with the Employee Benefits Research Institute. "This data demonstrates the power of persistence."

The average account balance for all 401(k) participants — including people who have been saving just a year — was $58,328, up 2.5% from $56,878 in 2004. Huh? Isn't the maximum contribution $15,000 (not including the catch up allowed for us "old farts") :wtf: Reads like some damned advertising brochure.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Record Activity In Short Selling Hits the Nasdaq (Anyone subscribe to WSJ?

I don't have access anymore so can't get the full article.

http://online.wsj.com/google_login.html?url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB115647647629945348.html%3Fmod%3Dgooglenews_wsj

Short-selling activity hit a record on the Nasdaq Stock Market during the latest monthly period, despite a rally in the technology sector.

For the period ended Aug. 15 , the number of short-selling positions not yet closed out at the Nasdaq -- so-called short interest -- rose 1.8% ...

[54anickel]

21. Speaking of short selling, AnneD pointed this thread out to me last

night....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1976101

British intelligence knew about the liquid exlosives on airlines long before the actual raid - who traded the airline stocks before and after and with information from whom?

Airlines stocks traded in a strange pattern. For a few days it showed technical weakness then slowly moved down. Then came the news and the airlines indices collapsed. The money was ready on the sideline to jump in and buy the stocks.

British intelligence service agents secretly infiltrated a bomb factory and found liquid explosives and detonators weeks before they foiled the plot to blow up America-bound passenger jets flying from UK airports, media reported on Sunday.

Who knew about the terror plot and the timing of the announcement? Who did British intelligence reveal it to?

Covert raids on homes of key terror suspects were also made to plant bugs and gather crucial evidence against them, The Mail on Sunday claimed.

more... http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/12725.asp

[stop the bleeding]

23. another SS article here

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has earned a reputation for bashing NBA referees. Now the brash billionaire says he wants to shine a light on the mistakes of Corporate America.

He's launched a Web site, Sharesleuth.com, and hired a financial journalist with the goal of rooting out unsavory business practices and misleading accounting by public companies.

Good idea, right? After all, the existing financial media and Wall Street's best and brightest analysts were all duped by the likes of Enron and WorldCom.

Maybe not. The big problem: Cuban is tilting the game in his own favor in a way that some of his allegedly corrupt target companies would have to admire. "All Mark Cuban has done is figure out a way to screw people legally, and that is what Wall Street is all about," says Gary Weiss, author of "Wall Street Versus America: The Rampant Greed and Dishonesty That Imperil Your Investments."




http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/BillionaireGoesMuckrakingForProfit.aspx?GT1=8472


when in Rome.....

[54anickel]

26. I was just reading some blog entry about this guy but had no idea

what the author was rambling about. Now I get it....thanks.

edit to add the blog (since I just stumbled across it a second time)
http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/08/nasty_turn_in_sharesleuth_cont.html

Nasty Turn in Sharesleuth Controversy
Gary Weiss has been one of the most outspoken critics of Mark Cuban’s plan to trade stocks of companies that are targets of Sharesleuth in advance of the publication of critical articles on the site. Yesterday,things took a weird and nasty turn when Cuban posted an item to his blog claiming that Weiss was using a pseudonym to edit the ‘Mark Cuban’ wikipedia entry, inserting new language to make it more critical. Today Weiss is back, issuing a total denial of the charge, calling it a lie.

They are still battling it out in the comments section on GaryWeiss's blog even as we post this item. Hard to believe that these two used to be allies of sorts--both were loud critics the anti-naked short selling conspiracy crowd.

[54anickel]

27. State law on naked short selling is set aside

Remember Buttercup Mctoots posts regarding naked shorts and Overstock.com? It's in the "snews".
http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_4172401

Utah regulators are delaying enforcement of a new state law that requires stockbrokers to report any sign of an illegal trading practice known as naked short selling.

Faced with a federal court lawsuit by the Securities Industry Association that seeks to overturn the law, the state on Friday said it reached an agreement with the association to temporarily postpone enforcement until June 1. The law was scheduled to go into effect Oct. 1.

"What this does is give everyone time to sit down and talk and see if we can find some common ground and address everyone's concerns," said Travis Larson, spokesman for the association that represents the nation's stockbrokerages.

In its lawsuit the association contends the law will pre-empt federal regulations and place burdensome record-keeping requirements on brokerages. And it argues the authority to place such requirements on brokerages rests with the Securities and Exchange Commission, not the state.

The Utah law was pushed by Overstock.com Inc., an Internet-based closeout retailer that vocally complained naked short selling drove down the price of its shares by artificially creating more sellers than buyers.

more...

[54anickel]

28. NFL Stars, Charmed by Kirk Wright, Lose in Hedge Fund (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anDu6uyPjzjA&refer=home

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- When the FBI finally caught up with hedge fund manager Kirk Wright, he was lounging by the pool with his wife, Kilssis, at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Miami's South Beach neighborhood.

In his room, the Federal Bureau of Investigation agents discovered debit cards and an ID card with a different name -- one of three aliases Wright used while in Florida. They also found $28,000 in cash, a vestige of investors' funds estimated at $185 million, according to a sworn affidavit from FBI Special Agent William Cromer Jr.

Wright, 36, now faces 24 federal charges of mail and securities fraud, each carrying a maximum sentence of 20 years behind bars. He's pleaded not guilty.

He and the hedge fund company he founded, Marietta, Georgia-based International Management Associates LLC, also face a fraud lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and at least three separate lawsuits from investors and former business partners.

These include former pro football player Steve Atwater, who was so impressed with Wright and the returns he claimed to make on investments that he asked to join the firm as a client liaison.

snip>

The tale is all too familiar to the roughly 500 people who invested with Wright, from a Los Angeles real estate developer to a 74-year-old retired car salesman in Las Vegas, to Wright's own mother, who's not a plaintiff in the suits.

more...

[AnneD]

33. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and lurkers. Just dropped in to wish you a good morning. I am in the home stretch of the head checks


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

39. Good Morning AnneD. I hope your day of head checks goes well. It's

one thing that I've never (thankfully) had to deal with. Nasty little creatures. So has school already started where you are?

[cosmicdot]

69. too bad the thread was locked n/m

[54anickel]

22. Betting opens on hurricane damage

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0db82ea4-3393-11db-981f-0000779e2340.html

HedgeStreet, the online derivatives exchange, this week launched contracts allowing retail investors to bet on the amount of damage caused by hurricanes.

The instruments are binary, meaning the pay-off is all or nothing for investors, depending on whether or not insured damage for the entire season – which officially ends on November 30 – exceeds a certain level.

Contracts are available for damage levels at $100m, $1bn, $10bn and $25bn. Figures for seasons since 1991 have ranged from nothing to almost $60bn, with last year’s hurricanes, including Katrina, setting the record.

Trading so far has been light, but as of Thursday, investors’ positions predicted a 21 per cent chance of more than $25bn of losses, something that has only happened twice since 1991.

more...

[54anickel]

24. PricewaterhouseCoopers, Biggest Accountant, Faces IRS Audit

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTZBapi1TW8s&refer=us

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, the world's largest accounting firm, is being audited by the Internal Revenue Service for potential violations in reporting its own taxes, according to IRS and company documents.

The IRS is evaluating the timing of tax deductions, PricewaterhouseCoopers' pension plan, and how the firm moved profits between international units, said a person briefed on the audit. The review may be completed later this month and the IRS is expected to reach its conclusions by the end of the year, PricewaterhouseCoopers' tax partner Samuel Starr said in a June 15 letter to the New York-based firm's 2,000 U.S. partners, who could be liable for any back taxes.

Additional taxes or penalties could damage the reputations of the firm and the industry, which have been under increased scrutiny since the 2001 collapse of Houston-based energy trader Enron Corp. and the demise of its auditor, Arthur Andersen LLP.

The IRS review may cost partners at PricewaterhouseCoopers ``scores of millions'' of dollars, said Robert Willens, a tax and accounting analyst at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York.

``If the pension plan were to be disqualified, the results would be potentially nuclear,'' said Richard Susko, a pension attorney and partner at the New York law firm of Cleary, Gottleib, Steen & Hamilton. PricewaterhouseCoopers could lose deductions it took on contributions to the pension plan, though the IRS probably will ``work out something less draconian,'' he said.

more...

[54anickel]

25. 9:40 and starting in a sea of red

Dow 11,272.37 -32.09 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,130.71 -6.40 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,292.48 -3.58 (-0.28%)
10-yr Bond 4.809 +0.006 (+0.12%)
30-yr Bond 4.948 +0.009 (+0.18%)
NYSE Volume 89,649,000
Nasdaq Volume 71,288,000

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures indications are now near morning lows, suggesting even more apprehension on the part of buyers going into the weekend. A tropical depression in the Caribbean expected to form Tropical Storm Ernesto later today is keeping oil prices at lofty levels (above $73 a barrel) and has investors realizing that what has been a quiet hurricane season so far probably won't be silenced for long.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.8. Stage remains set for stocks to open in sluggish fashion as the extreme dearth of news continues to provide little enthusiasm to get back on the buying track, especially ahead of what Bernanke may or may not say later this morning. Add to that a Friday during the height of the August vacation period and another light volume day will probably leave investors struggling to move the major averages in either direction with any conviction.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.2. Still shaping up to be a modestly lower start for the indices as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures continue to trade below fair value. Meanwhile, Ford Motor (F) is making headlines again following Robert Rubin's resignation from its board and amid reports Ford has held talks to sell its Jaguar and Land Rover lines to a group headed by former CEO Jacques Nasser. That news, along with Home Depot (HD) adding $3.5 bln to its stock buyback program, will keep a Consumer Discretionary sector in the spotlight which continues to struggle amid further evidence of a housing slowdown and rising oil prices.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures versus fair value suggest stocks could be in for another lackluster day of trading as the dog days of summer continue. With nothing of note on either the earnings or economic calendars, investors are awaiting testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke to set the tone for the day. Unfortunately for participants, his speech at the Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming doesn't begin until 10:00 ET, leaving investors focused on oil prices surging 1.5% to their highest levels in more than a week.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5.

[54anickel]

30. Citigroup's Robert Rubin Resigns as Ford Director (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahWLlT9nacdY&refer=home

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Rubin, the former U.S. Treasury secretary who chairs Citigroup Inc.'s executive committee, resigned as a director at Ford Motor Co. to avoid conflicts that may arise as the automaker weighs asset sales or other options that would involve investment banks.

``Citigroup's multifaceted relationship with Ford could raise a question whether any relationship with Ford and Citigroup creates an appearance of conflict,'' Rubin, who joined the board in 2000, wrote yesterday in a letter to Ford Chairman William Clay Ford Jr. Rubin said he decided to resign even though no conflict ``currently exists.''

Rubin, lured to Citigroup in 1999 by former Chairman Sanford Weill, helps direct strategy at the biggest U.S. bank and advises both senior executives and their clients. His decision to leave Ford's board comes four months after the automaker's bigger rival, General Motors Corp., agreed to sell a majority stake in its finance unit to a group of investors that included Citigroup. Citigroup also advised on the deal and helped finance it.

``It's a big loss to have someone of Bob Rubin's talent leave the board,'' said John Casesa, managing partner at Casesa Strategic Advisors in New York. ``He's one of the most experienced financial executives in the world.''

more...

[amandabeech]

70. Does he know how to let the engineers design and motivate the

assembly workers to make a really first class fuel efficient cars and utility vehicles for those who need them? Something that we could even export?

If he can't do that, he can be replaced.

[54anickel]

31. Top legislator speaks highly of Sino-Venezuelan ties

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-08/25/content_5007837.htm

BEIJING,Aug. 25 (Xinhua)-- Wu Bangguo, China's top legislator, spoke highly of the development of Sino-Venezuelan relations when meeting with visiting Venezuelan President Chavez here Friday.

He said the Chinese side appreciates the Venezuelan side's support for China on such issues as Taiwan, Tibet and human rights.

China will make concerted efforts with Venezuela to turn bilateral relations into a model for equality, reciprocity and sincere cooperation among developing countries, noted Wu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC).

He said he hoped the two parliaments will maintain high-level contacts, expand exchanges and cooperation between different departments, learn from each other in building democracy and legal systems and governing, and strengthen coordination and cooperation in international and regional inter-parliament organizations.

Chavez said his current visit has been successful and it will push forward bilateral relations.

more...

[54anickel]

32. U.S. and Asean sign trade accord

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/25/business/asean.php

The United States signed a trade and investment framework agreement with Southeast Asian nations Friday to bolster economic ties with the region, a move that could lead to a free trade pact.

But the Malaysian trade minister, Rafidah Aziz, warned that the agreement must not be used as a tool to pressure the military-ruled Myanmar toward democracy.

The U.S. trade representative, Susan Schwab, signed the agreement, along with ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean. One of the signatories was Soe Tha, the national planning and economic development minister of Myanmar, a country that is under sanctions from Washington.

Schwab said that the agreement marked a U.S. commitment to have a more vigorous economic engagement with Asean, which as a bloc is America's fourth-largest trading partner, but that the accord would not change Washington's policy toward Myanmar.

more...

[54anickel]

34. Things can get ugly for private-equity deals

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003224226_privateequity25.html

NEW YORK — Next time a big private-equity deal is announced, don't assume it won't affect you. How those buyouts are being structured could reverberate across corporate America.

That's because the private-equity firms are piling debt on to the companies that they buy, and then often using the cash that the loans generate to enrich themselves rather than putting it toward improving the companies' financial health.

Things could get ugly should that debt grow too big for the companies to handle, not so much for the buyout firms themselves, but for everyone else — from workers to suppliers to banks with even the most remote ties to the companies.

snip>

Private-equity firms used to buy a company, overhaul its operations, and then use the cash flow from its improved business to start paying down its debt. The big profits would then come from taking the companies public.

But a slow market for initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2002 and 2003 caused the buyout firms to rethink how to guarantee themselves fat payouts. That's when many started to increasingly use something called a dividend recapitalization, which meant the companies borrowed money that they mostly wouldn't use to invest in the business but to pay themselves back for their initial investment with a dividend.

The lower tax hit also made the issuance of dividends attractive. In 2003, the government cut the dividend tax rate to 15 percent, well below the capital-gains tax on ordinary income of 35 percent.

more...

[cosmicdot]

71. is this what the Carlyle Group is doing?

seems part of the BFEE M.O. is use, abuse, discard

[54anickel]

35. 10:50 and mixing it up a bit

Dow 11,290.14 -14.32 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,143.99 +6.88 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,296.03 -0.03 (-0.00%)
10-yr Bond 4.791 -0.012 (-0.25%)
30-yr Bond 4.932 -0.007 (-0.14%)
NYSE Volume 483,965,000
Nasdaq Volume 410,170,000

10:30 am : Stocks get a boost within the last 30 minutes, lifting all three major indices to session highs; but its remains unclear as to whether Bernanke's speech had anything to do with it since the indices have since pulled back. After all, Bernanke has not discussed the outlook for the economy or monetary policy in his prepared remarks. It could be argued that Bernanke discussing the benefits of global integration, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar -- a benefit to American high-tech companies since a stronger greenback drives the cost of their foreign-made parts lower -- could be behind further appreciation througout the Technology sector. However, with everything from semiconductors to communication equipment still negative on the year, recent momentum in the sector may be nothing more than bargain hunters returning to pick up beaten-down stocks. DJ30 -5.04 NASDAQ +9.11 SOX +0.3% SP500 +0.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 919/1628/366 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1040/1756/280 mln

10:00 am : Major averages now trade in split fashion but the bulk of sector leadership remains negative. A turnaround in Technology, led by relative strength in software and semiconductors, has helped the Nasdaq inch into the green. However, the absence of leadership from the more influential Financials sector, as investors consolidate some of the gains that lifted the Thrifts & Mortgage group to yesterday's second best performance (+2.1%), is so far preventing the blue chip indices from climbing above the flat line. Consolidation in another one of Thursday's strong performers -- HMOs -- is also removing some notable leadership from Health Care despite the sector's defensive characteristics. DJ30 -10.12 NASDAQ +3.12 SP500 -0.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1406/859/158 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1464/828/150 mln

09:40 am : As expected, buyers are absent at the onset of trading as a dearth of both economic and corporate news leaves little incentive to extend yesterday's unconvincing gains. While investors await possible clues from Fed Chairman Bernanke about the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, especially on the heels of recent data showing a slowdown in the latter, surging oil prices putting upward pressure on overall inflation is underpinning an early sense of nervousness. DJ30 -33.29 NASDAQ -6.40 SP500 -3.65 NASDAQ Vol 64 mln NYSE Vol 54 mln

[54anickel]

38. Home for Sale, by Anxious Owner

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/business/25home.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1156518471-fFhbzm9c/ruuP222EuE/ig

Home sales are falling rapidly, and the number of houses on the market is surging. Yet each new economic report offering evidence of a housing slowdown also shows that the national median home price has continued to rise over the last year.

To understand how this could be happening, consider a three-bedroom house surrounded by oak and redwood trees, not far from the Golden Gate Bridge, in San Rafael, Calif. Reluctant to cut the price from its current listing of $1.54 million, its owners are instead offering a weeklong vacation time-share, every year for life, worth about $10,000, or an equal amount toward lease of a car.

snip>

In California, the Northeast, South Florida and parts of the Southwest, deal sweeteners like these are playing an increasingly important role in supporting home prices. From large national home builders to individual homeowners, many sellers are offering thousands of dollars in perks, including straight cash, so they do not have to slice deeply into asking prices.

But these discounts are almost entirely missing from the statistics on new-home prices reported by the government and on existing-home prices reported by the National Association of Realtors. As a result, home prices may now be falling, despite what the official numbers show, many economists say.

The use of rebates helps home builders and individual sellers by making the real estate market look healthier than it may truly be and by preventing a snowballing decline in home prices. It also keeps commissions for real estate agents higher than they would otherwise be.

more...

[wordpix2]

41. I don't get it---where are the home sellers going? Don't they need homes

to move into?

I am considering selling in one town in the Northeast and buying in another town in the same state. On the buyer's side, I see many, many homes for sale but all asking prices are still absurdly high---$450K for a fixer upper small house that will take at least $100,000, maybe $200,000 to fix. On the selling side, I'm not going to price my condo too cheaply since I don't see asking prices going down in my area.

I just don't get why there's a glut of homes on the market when people selling have to move somewhere and therefore, they are also buyers.

[54anickel]

43. My guess would be that part of it is a result from the boom trend of

buying secondary homes in addition to ones primary residence. There are always houses on the market due to people want to up-size or down-size, divorce, death, job loss, job transfer - the usual reasons for houses going on the market.

Add to that those who bought secondary homes during the boom for investment, retirement, vacationing. With rising interest rates, rising retirements, a crappy economy (despite what the cheerleaders claim) and inflationary pressures happening within that group of owners, it's increased the odds against a sell one - buy another market.

[54anickel]

44. Say You Want a Revolution (Buyers market)

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2006/08/19/columnists/catherine_hockmuth/91hockmuthrevolt.txt

snip>

Take a look around your own neighborhood and you'll likely find numerous comparable homes listed at wildly disparate prices even after upgrades have been factored into the equation.

Why are prices so arbitrary? Because the real estate market is so uncertain that sellers have no idea what their property is worth.

So you tell them. At the end of the day, a house is worth only as much as someone is willing to pay for it.

If this is indeed a buyer's market why are buyers standing on the sidewalks anxiously hoping for a fire sale? Were investors passive about driving up prices in the first place? No, they were sharks who changed the market for everyone by marching up to the front doors of homes that weren't even for sale and throwing cash around.

So stop being passive. Be a shark. It's a buyer's market. If this bubble is going to burst, let us bring out the needles.

snip>

Or, figure out what the house was worth five years ago and tack on 25 percent -- 5 percent appreciation for each of the last five years, or what a normal market would have paid if investors and cheap money hadn't screwed everything up. If it was worth $300,000 five years ago. It's worth approximately $364,000 now. Offer that.

What's the worst that could happen? They say no and slam the door in your face? They get insulted? Your agent is embarrassed to be seen with you?

more...

[54anickel]

40. Anatomy of Jobs Fraud (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie082506.html

On the first Friday of every month, observers of the USEconomy, armchair critics of official policy, cheerleaders to the American dream, spin doctors on Wall Street, and an army of investors wait with baited breath for the mass of horse pucky, meadow muffins, and road apples that is the stuff of the JOBS REPORT, a surefire conjob if there ever was one. The particular fraud hides behind an exotic but valid statistical method, one used legitimately in many forecast settings, but not here in this setting. The Jobs Report has been the subject of much attention in the last few years, as the economic recovery has been scrutinized, criticized, and exaggerated. Population growth calls for 150 thousand new jobs to be created each month just to keep pace and stay neutral. Despite the political ballyhoo of strong job growth, this has been the weakest recovery in modern history. The central problem is that appropriate monetary policy cannot be decided upon in the midst of such colossal numeric drivel passed off as analytic estimation. The main job driver is a charade from a mysterious statistical model.



Some general background is essential on statistical fraud, lies, and distortions. They are the paraphernalia of lost and desperate banking leaders, the broken tools of a corrupted cadre of clueless captains of aberrant tuned financial engineering contraptions. Both men and machine have gone badly awry. It seems the only answers dealt and broadcasted are deeper debt, bolder lies, as well as constant justification for more foreign investment capital and for wider war abroad and a structurally defective domestic economy. The trouble with open societies is that the more keen observers can expose the trickery. The rest depends upon the public interest in paying enough attention, in thinking more than necessary for a dull re-run on television, in making sense of the patterned falsehoods, and lastly comprehending the motive to lie. In the table are major economic statistics, their instrument of lie, and apparent motive. Sadly, not a single major economic statistic is a truthful representation of the current condition.

My contention is that a recession has been in progress on & off & on for five years running. It explains many actual riddles and phony conundrums. If officials cannot explain a contradiction to their charade, give it a fancy name, to wit "conundrum" works well. After passage through "truth filters" to purify certain official statistics, much more sense can be made of the anomalous set of signals which have been flashing orange for so long that most people consider them part of the normal ambient environment. The USEconomy is in a stall, after recognition of the 4% to 5% exaggeration in the Gross Domestic Product. This is an ongoing theme of mine. The CPI is 4% too low, which necessarily means the GDP is 4% overstated at least, since these two measures work in tandem on the inherent distortions. We were in a stall all last year, and in a recession right now, as in NOW.

BACKGROUND OF JOBS FRAUD
Some background, a little history, and a scorecard puts the aggregate fraud into perspective. Valuable details help to establish, in legal parlance, a prima facie (first face) for fraud. Back in year 2000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics decided to enhance their primitive "bias factor" which bridged the gap between its employment surveys and the IRS tax data. What was once a simple fixed addition each month has become an elaborate model, one certain to rival the slick devices utilized in the other doctored statistics. The jobs estimate and its parent model have come of age. The Birth-Death (B-D) model was up to the job of creating an ever increasing number of jobs, in itemized categories no less, to aid the political charlatans seeking approval and re-election. It joined the other equally massive statistical lies which clutter the financial journals.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Another Post-Bubble Shakeout (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060825-fri.html#anchor0

Five and a half years ago the equity bubble popped. Within six months, the US economy went into mild recession, and the global economy was quick to follow. Today, America’s housing bubble is finally bursting. Is the die cast for another bubble-induced downturn in the US and global economy?

All asset bubbles are alike. Sure, there are obvious differences between equities -- a financial asset -- and homes -- a tangible asset. But to me, the Shiller definition says it all: A bubble is an outgrowth of powerful amplification mechanisms -- both real and psychological -- which create an unsustainable condition whereby “… price increases beget further price increases” (see Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance, second edition, Princeton University Press, 2005). The rise and fall of the US housing market fits the Shiller script to a tee. House price appreciation surged to a 27-year high in 2005, and as of the first quarter of 2006, prices were still rising by 20% or higher in 53 metropolitan areas across the United States. Both pricing and demand were feeding on each other through classic Shiller-like amplification mechanisms.

As always, the upside of a speculative bubble lasts for longer than you think. But when it finally goes, it invariably unwinds with greater force than widely expected. That seems to be the way the chips are now falling in the US housing market. Demand for homes is falling like a stone and inventories of unsold dwellings are ballooning -- up 40% for existing homes and 22% for new homes in the 12 months ending July. These are the classic quantity adjustments that set the stage for price destruction -- the endgame of any asset bubble. So far, home values just seem to be leveling off at still lofty price points. As the bid-offer gap widens in an excess inventory and rising interest rate climate, price declines will come as they always do. This bubble is not different.

snip>

Ironically, at just the moment when it has become evident that the US housing bubble has burst, the key architects of this sad state of affairs -- America's central bankers -- are cavorting at their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Denial has long been deep at this Fed love-fest. A year ago at this same conference, considerable adulation was heaped on the post-bubble legacy of the Greenspan Fed -- namely, that the US central bank was correct in dealing with the equity bubble after the fact (see Alan Blinder and Ricardo Reis, “Understanding the Greenspan Standard” available at www.kc.frb.org). This, of course, is consistent with Greenspan’s own self-professed verdict of vindication for the Fed’s post-bubble clean-up strategy (see his January 3, 2004 speech, “Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy”) as well as a similar argument presented at an earlier Jackson Hole gathering by then Princeton professor Ben Bernanke (see the 1999 paper by Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler, “Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility”). Missing in this self-serving depiction is an assessment of the consequences of aggressive post-bubble monetary easing tactics. The injection of excess liquidity is key in that regard -- sufficient in the current instance for one bubble to beget the next. In that important respect, the housing bubble was a direct outgrowth of the Fed's post-equity bubble defense strategy. And now the US, as well as a US-centric world economy, must come to grips with what its central bank has wrought -- yet another post-bubble shakeout.

more...

[54anickel]

45. NovaGold Files Lawsuit Claiming Barrick Has Violated U.S. Securities Laws

http://www.novagold.net/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=148386

• NovaGold alleges Barrick misstates ownership of Donlin Creek
• Seeks temporary suspension of hostile offer

August 25, 2006 - Vancouver, British Columbia - NovaGold Resources Inc. (TSX: NG, AMEX: NG) announced today that it has filed a lawsuit against Barrick Gold Corporation (TSX: ABX, NYSE: ABX) ("Barrick") in the United States District Court for the District of Alaska. The lawsuit alleges that Barrick has violated United States securities laws by making material misstatements with respect to Barrick's interest in NovaGold's Donlin Creek project in Alaska. NovaGold currently holds a 70% interest in the venture through its subsidiary NovaGold Alaska; Barrick holds a 30% interest through its subsidiary Placer Dome U.S. Inc.

Barrick has repeatedly stated that it will earn a 70% interest (reducing NovaGold's stake to 30%) by satisfying contractual back-in requirements on or before November 12, 2007. The lawsuit alleges that these statements are false and that Barrick cannot satisfy those requirements. The lawsuit seeks a temporary restraining order suspending Barrick's unsolicited tender offer to acquire NovaGold pending an accelerated judgment by the court regarding what actions are necessary for Barrick to satisfy those requirements. NovaGold is asking the court to order that the requirements include certain milestones (such as completion of an environmental impact statement, a bankable feasibility study and a construction decision by Placer Dome U.S.'s board) that NovaGold believes cannot be met by the contractual deadline of November 12, 2007.

"We believe it is critical that NovaGold's shareholders be provided with full and accurate information regarding Barrick's tender offer. We also believe that Barrick's hostile offer is an attempt to circumvent the outcome that NovaGold will retain its 70% interest in the Donlin Creek project when Barrick fails to meet its contractual milestones," said Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, NovaGold's President and CEO. "We are confident that the court will find in NovaGold's favour and that Barrick will be required to acknowledge NovaGold's 70% interest in Donlin Creek. We look forward to a prompt determination of the issue so that the tender offer can proceed on a fair basis."

[54anickel]

46. OT - The Best War Ever

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/082206G.shtml

Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber have a new book, which is always a good thing; but this one is especially good. It's called "The Best War Ever: Lies, Damned Lies, and the Mess in Iraq." It's 206 pages, and you'll read it in one sitting, because it's more entertaining than the corporate media whose infotainment is the book's focus. While this book is every bit as well researched as Congressman John Conyers's 350-page report, "The Constitution in Crisis," it's written as a compelling narrative rather than a list of evidence or a draft indictment. I recommend reading these two works together.

Rampton and Stauber present a case not only that Bush, Cheney, and gang lied us into a war, but that the lies fooled the liars themselves at least as much as anyone else, and that the lies impeded the planning. According to this analysis, the reason the occupation of Iraq was not planned was primarily that the undertaking of such planning, had it become known, would have conflicted with the lies about Americans being welcomed as liberators. The authors also make a case that the viciousness of the Bushies' attacks and retribution against whistleblowers significantly helped to expose the lies the administration had been telling.

Rampton and Stauber recount the twists and turns in this war's narrative from the point of view of careful consumers of media. Because the media has repeatedly erased old storylines and begun anew, a review of where we've actually been is helpful. One of the first major stops on this chronicle of media wonders is the effusive praise bestowed on Colin Powell's UN presentation by the US corporate media. Here was a list of blatant and in some cases quite obvious lies, lies that Powell's own staff had warned him would not even seem plausible. And yet, corporate US media outlets universally decreed that the case for war was made undeniable by this speech. Tellingly, however, US newspapers stated that Powell had told the truth because he couldn't possibly have done otherwise, not because the newspapers had checked out any of the claims.

Rampton and Stauber quote, to refresh our memories, what several newspapers and pundits had to say about Powell's performance, including these gems and others like them:

"It is hard to imagine how anyone could doubt that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction." - The Washington Post

"Powerful and irrefutable." - Democratic Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr.

By irrefutable, Biden may have meant simply that no refutation could be printed in US newspapers, because Powell's lies had been refuted almost as well before he made them as they have since. Powell cited descriptions of weapons by Hussein Kamel without adding that Kamel had said the weapons no longer existed. The CIA and Powell's own staff had refuted many of the claims. Many commentators (generally shunned by the corporate media) maintained that there were no weapons. Over half of the Democrats in Congress voted against the war. No war was needed to determine whether the scary weapons were really there (not that such an investigatory war, or even a war based on real weapons known to exist, would be legal or justifiable).

more...

[54anickel]

48. 12:15 lunchtime check in

Dow 11,282.21 -22.25 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,139.45 +2.34 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,294.97 -1.09 (-0.08%)
10-yr Bond 4.789 -0.014 (-0.29%)
30-yr Bond 4.931 -0.008 (-0.16%)
NYSE Volume 791,406,000
Nasdaq Volume 657,094,000

12:00 pm : Buyers are few and far between midday as the extreme dearth of news on either the economic and corporate front leaves little incentive to extend yesterday's unconvincing gains.

Add to that Fed Chairman Bernanke not discussing the economic outlook or monetary policy in his prepared speech in front of world central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming Fed symposium, and investors have had little other than oil prices hitting their highest levels in more than a week to merely add to this week's already cautious tone. Albeit off their highs, crude oil futures are up 1.0% (above $73 a barrel) amid increasing evidence that a tropical depression in the Caribbean may become a storm strong enough to threaten oil rigs in the Gulf.

From a sector standpoint, the absence of leadership from Financials -- today's worst performing sector, is acting as the biggest deterrent for the bulls struggling to mimic any of last week's heroics. Offsetting the benefits of falling bond yields has been weakness throughout the Thrifts & Mortgage group (e.g. CFC -2.4%, WM -1.3%) after H&R Block (HRB 20.80 -1.99), which is a component of the struggling Consumer Discretionary sector, warned of losses at its struggling mortgage unit.

Of the five sectors catching a bid, Energy is pacing the way higher in sympathy with the rise in crude and is helping to offset some of oil's inflationary characteristics. Relative strength in Technology has also offered some reprieve, but modest bargain hunting interest in beaten-down areas like software and networking, on a Friday during the height of the August vacation period and amid another light volume day no less, provide little conviction behind the day's sluggish performance thus far. BTK +0.8% DJ30 -24.25 DJTA -0.6% DJUA +0.2% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +1.08 NQ100 +0.1% R2K -0.2% SOX -0.1% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -1.55 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1488/1286/630 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1672/1340/484 mln

11:30 am : Indices continue to languish around the unchanged mark, still not showing a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as decliners on the NYSE hold a slim 16-to-13 advantage over advancers while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched. The ratio of up to down volumes also paints a similarly mixed picture at the Big Board and the Composite while limited participation suggests that today could become the lightest volume day of the year. DJ30 -20.97 NASDAQ -3.55 SP500 -0.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1376/1358/538 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1612/1345/416 mln

11:00 am : Market continues to retrace earlier lows as prices across the energy complex continue to trend higher. Crude oil futures are now up 1.6% (above $73.50 a barrel) and natural gas futures are up 6.0% amid increasing evidence that the tropical depression in the Caribbean may become a storm strong enough to threaten oil platforms in the Gulf. Fortunately for the bulls, Energy's subsequent 1.0% advance is helping to offset some of oil's inlfationary characteristics.DJ30 -24.25 NASDAQ +2.15 SP500 -0.79 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1186/1456/458 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1370/1534/346 mln

10:30 am : Stocks get a boost within the last 30 minutes, lifting all three major indices to session highs; but its remains unclear as to whether Bernanke's speech had anything to do with it since the indices have since pulled back. After all, Bernanke has not discussed the outlook for the economy or monetary policy in his prepared remarks. It could be argued that Bernanke discussing the benefits of global integration, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar -- a benefit to American high-tech companies since a stronger greenback drives the cost of their foreign-made parts lower -- could be behind further appreciation througout the Technology sector. :eyes: However, with everything from semiconductors to communication equipment still negative on the year, recent momentum in the sector may be nothing more than bargain hunters returning to pick up beaten-down stocks. DJ30 -5.04 NASDAQ +9.11 SOX +0.3% SP500 +0.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 919/1628/366 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1040/1756/280 mln

[54anickel]

50. Dang, gotta run for a while again...another storm brewing - this one could

be nasty....

[Ghost Dog]

52. European banks lifted by merger speculation

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38954.4927083333-880829851&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European equities were largely flat on Friday, but merger speculation enlivened the banking sector. Italian banking mergers remained in the spotlight after Credit Agricole, the biggest shareholder in Italy’s Banca Intesa, gave its approval to the possible merger between Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI. The board members of both banks were scheduled to meet on Saturday to discuss the merger. Shares in Intesa closed up 0.8 per cent to €5.066, while Sanpaolo gained 3.5 per cent to €16.10. Domestic rivals were also higher as the prospect of further consolidation in the sector heightened. Capitalia climbed 3.2 per cent to €6.98 but Mediobanca fell 0.2 per cent to €17.035.

By the close of trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 0.1 per cent at 1,359.64, while Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax was flat at 5,811.47. In Paris, the CAC 40 was also flat at 5,111.13 while London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.2 per cent to 5,878.6.

[Ghost Dog]

53. Sterling hits 10-day high vs euro after GDP estimate

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=ukPoundRpt&storyid=2006-08-25T143510Z_01_L25884315_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STERLING-CLOSE.XML&WTmodLoc=NewsArt-C2-AlsoToday-7

LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a 10-day high against the euro on Friday after data showed British economic growth reached its fastest rate in two years in the second quarter.

The second estimate, unrevised from the previous and in line with forecasts, showed growth rose 0.8 percent on the quarter and 2.6 percent on the year. Consumer spending jumped by one percent on the quarter as the World Cup soccer tournament increased demand for flat-screen TVs, food and drink.

"The strength in consumer spending in Q2 will probably be largely reversed in Q3, because it was World Cup-driven and won't be maintained to the same extent so we expect a little bit of a slowdown.. but the numbers were pretty much in line," said Adrian Schmidt, strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

By 1418 GMT, sterling was up 0.16 percent versus the euro at 67.51 pence after earlier reaching a 10-day high of 67.44 pence <EURGBP=>. It also reached an eight-year high against the yen, hitting 221.65 yen <GBPJPY=R>, and matched one-week highs against the Bank of England's trade-weighted index <=GBP>.

The pound was 0.12 percent lower against the dollar at $1.8851 <GBP=> after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not comment on the U.S. economy or give any insight into the interest rate outlook in a speech on Friday.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

54. Yen slides on weak inflation data

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38954.476712963-880828597&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

The yen plunged to a fresh record low against the euro and a near-eight-year nadir against sterling in European morning trade on Friday as Japanese inflation data came in well below expectations.

Japan’s consumer price index rose just 0.2 per cent in July, comfortably below expectations for a rise of 0.5 per cent, calling into question the likely pace of monetary tightening in Japan.

When the Bank of Japan finally ended its five-year-old zero interest rate policy in July, the expectation was that there would be at least one more quarter-point rate rise this calendar year. However a succession of soft economic reports have called this assumption into question, weighing on the yen, with Friday’s inflation data adding to this trend. “The market had been pricing in another Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of the year, but expectations for another hike are now likely to be pushed back to next year,” said Hans Redeker, head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas.

As a result, the yen fell Y0.9 to Y149.66 against the euro, an all-time low, Y1.65 to Y221.53 against sterling, its lowest level since October 1998, Y0.7 to Y117.19 against the US dollar and Y0.3 to Y89.00 against the Australian dollar.

[Ghost Dog]

58. Dollar Mostly Up, Gold Down in Europe

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060825/ap/d8jnhisg3.html

The U.S. dollar was mostly higher against other major currencies in European trading late Friday. Gold prices fell.

The euro traded at $1.2745, down from $1.2801 late Thursday in New York. Later, in midday trading in New York, the euro fetched $1.2775.

Other dollar rates in Europe, compared with late Thursday, included 117.30 Japanese yen, up from 116.47; 1.2407 Swiss francs, up from 1.2393; and 1.1080 Canadian dollars, down from 1.1104.

The British pound traded at $1.8858, down from $1.8939.

In midday New York trading, the dollar bought 117.10 yen and 1.2360 Swiss francs, while the pound was worth $1.8899.

Gold closed in London at $621.70, down from $622.00 late Thursday.

In Zurich, gold traded at $622.15, down from $622.95.

Gold fell $1.75 in Hong Kong to $622.25.

Silver traded in London at $12.31 per troy ounce, down from $12.48.

/...

[TrogL]

55. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2006-07-25 Tuesday, July 25 0.87604 USD
2006-07-26 Wednesday, July 26 0.879121 USD
2006-07-27 Thursday, July 27 0.881368 USD
2006-07-28 Friday, July 28 0.885191 USD
2006-07-31 Monday, July 31 0.884251 USD
2006-08-01 Tuesday, August 1 0.884017 USD
2006-08-02 Wednesday, August 2 0.888257 USD
2006-08-03 Thursday, August 3 0.887942 USD
2006-08-04 Friday, August 4 0.88739 USD
2006-08-07 Monday, August 7 0.894294 USD
2006-08-08 Tuesday, August 8 0.892618 USD
2006-08-09 Wednesday, August 9 0.893096 USD
2006-08-10 Thursday, August 10 0.887942 USD
2006-08-11 Friday, August 11 0.892379 USD
2006-08-14 Monday, August 14 0.88968 USD
2006-08-15 Tuesday, August 15 0.890869 USD
2006-08-16 Wednesday, August 16 0.896057 USD
2006-08-17 Thursday, August 17 0.896057 USD
2006-08-18 Friday, August 18 0.890155 USD
2006-08-21 Monday, August 21 0.894214 USD
2006-08-22 Tuesday, August 22 0.89662 USD
2006-08-23 Wednesday, August 23 0.900901 USD
2006-08-24 Thursday, August 24 0.90009 USD
2006-08-25 Friday, August 25 0.90269 USD

Current values

Last trade 0.9016 Change +0.0010 (+0.11%)
Previous Close 0.9006 Open 0.9042
Low 0.9016 High 0.9044


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday’s breakout above this summer’s downtrend line. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at .9076 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8955 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.


Analysis

Nothing much on the news except increasing concern about the collapse of the housing bubble in the US and problems with oil pipelines in Alaska.

[54anickel]

59. 2:08 numbers and yada

Dow 11,285.97 -18.49 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,140.61 +3.50 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,295.49 -0.57 (-0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.789 -0.014 (-0.29%)
30-yr Bond 4.931 -0.008 (-0.16%)
NYSE Volume 1,094,185,000
Nasdaq Volume 883,581,000

2:00 pm : Indices continue to drift around aimlessly as investors still lack any catalysts to push stocks more aggressively in either direction. Volatility in oil futures, which are retracing earlier highs after recently consolidating somewhat, continue to lend support to the Energy sector. However, higher energy prices, which in addition to high levels of resource utilization "have the potential to sustain inflation pressures," prevent the specter of further Fed tightening from completely disappearing and thus continue to act as an overhang on today's trading.DJ30 -19.45 NASDAQ +3.12 SP500 -0.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1496/1368/864 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1615/1506/688 mln

1:30 pm : Stocks have barely budged over the last 2 1/2 hours as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The blue chip indices are still trading just below the flat line, largely due to weakness across the influential Financials sector as well as a lack of desire to own economically sensitive stocks, which have been out of favor all week following disappointing economic data. Notable laggards include Costco Wholesale (COST 48.50 -1.11), which is down 7.7% this week, and Circuit City (CC 22.50 -0.28), which is off 12.2% over the last five days. DJ30 -23.61 NASDAQ +1.95 SP500 -1.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1456/1407/806 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1598/1514/640 mln

1:00 pm : Range-bound trading persists as split industry leadership continues to dictate the day's action. Specialty Consulting Services, already one of this year's worst performing S&P industry groups (-16.2%), is today's biggest disappointment (-8.7%) while IT Consulting Services, also among this year's ten worst (-15%), stands at the opposite end of the spectrum today as the session's best performer (+3.2%). Another area garnering some bargain hunting interest is Tires & Rubber (+3.0%); but the bulk of today's buying efforts continue to side with this year's winners (e.g. Drillers +1.8%, Explorers +1.3%, Diversified Metals +1.2%). DJ30 -27.29 NASDAQ +1.36 SP500 -1.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1471/1367/748 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1613/1440/586 mln

[Ghost Dog]

61. Stocks meander after Bernanke speech

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060825/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

NEW YORK - Wall Street drifted without a direction Friday after a speech by
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke failed to give investors any hints about interest rate policy despite their concerns that the economy might be slowing too fast.

Further exasperating investors was a rally in oil and natural gas prices, which helped push blue chips lower and reinforced concerns that consumer spending will weaken. Stocks have retreated this week on questions about whether the economy is heading for a soft landing.

With little to guide them in slow summer trading, investors dwelled on this week's sluggish housing and durable goods data. Traders had been hoping Bernanke might sound a more dovish tone after another Fed official said interest rate hikes might still be in store this year.

"Without anything from Bernanke, the theme of the week is that there's now a negative shift in opinion about the economy due to housing data," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. "Don't forget volume is light, there's not that many buyers and sellers out there, and that will push the market in one direction without much effort."

<snip>

Analysts said investors were waiting to see if stocks could latch on to a direction next week, when a batch of economic data including consumer confidence, job growth and manufacturing readings will be released. Many on Wall Street won't get back from vacation until after the Labor Day holiday, and could begin to digest and trade on these numbers then.

"There's still a coin toss to how people will respond, but we believe the focus on rates is going to diminish and people will look more at the economic data to see how severe the downturn is going to be," said Warren West, head trader at Greentree Brokerage Services in Philadelphia. "We're to stop celebrating a downturn, and start to worry it will be more than just a soft landing."

/more...

[54anickel]

63. Yep, been another day of watchin' the paint dry. Still can't quite

understand the resiliency in the buck these days. Seems nothing fazes it.

[Tace]

66. My Unexpert Take Is That "They" are Propping Up The Dollar

That the dollar is their highest priority. They're willing to let just about everything else go... because when the dollar goes, that's it for U.S. global hegemony, and hellacious inflation will follow.

[54anickel]

60. Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Hurricane Katrina Contracts

http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_41131.shtml

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration turned to private contractors to provide relief and recovery services worth billions of dollars. Now, one year later, it is apparent that taxpayers and the residents of the Gulf Coast are paying a steep price for the failure to stop waste, fraud, and abuse in federal contracting.

At the request of Reps. Waxman, Cardoza, Obey, Tanner, Norton, and Tierney, this report examines procurement spending in response to Hurricane Katrina. The report identifies 19 Katrina contracts, collectively worth $8.75 billion, that have experienced significant overcharges, wasteful spending, or mismanagement.

There are indications that federal officials may repeat many of the same mistakes in responding to future disasters. Earlier this month, the Federal Emergency Management Agency awarded new contracts worth over $1 billion to several of the same companies implicated in the wasteful Hurricane Katrina response.

Key findings in the report include the following:

more...

[54anickel]

62. OT - McCarthyism: From 1946 to 2006

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20060824/cm_thenation/1115714

Primary elections always matter. But some primary elections matter more than others; indeed, some primary elections define the character not just of a particular official's term, or even of a legislative or congressional session, but of the nation's politics for years to come.

Residents of the state of Wisconsin, where my family has resided for seven generations, know this better than the citizens of most states. Sixty years ago this month, Republican primary voters turned out one of the greatest senators in the history of the United States, Robert M. La Follette Jr., and replaced him with one of the lousiest excuses for an elected leader this country has ever produced, Joe McCarthy.

The Wisconsin Republican Senate primary of 1946 set the wheels in motion for the Red Scare of the 1950s, to which McCarthy lent his name and his sordid tactics. It is true that Richard Nixon and others would have ginned up some sort of anti-communist propaganda campaign, but it is doubtful that it would ever have done the damage to civil liberties and public life that McCarthy achieved with his unparalleled lies and cruelty.

That Republican primary also began the long descent of the Grand Old Party, which had once laid a far stronger claim than the Democratic Party to the progressive mantle, into the pit of petty bigotry, reaction and neoconservative fantasy that now defines it.

La Follette lost by only 5,000 votes in August, 1946, but the margin did not matter. With the defeat of the maverick senator, who had supported extension of Roosevelt's New Deal at home while wisely questioning schemes for post-World War II military adventures abroad, the era of the old-school Midwestern progressivism came to a close. And American politics entered a dramatically uglier and more irrational period from which it has yet to fully emerge.

more...

[54anickel]

65. Heading into the home stretch at 3:19

Dow 11,292.30 -12.16 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,144.05 +6.94 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,296.96 +0.90 (+0.07%)
10-yr Bond 4.791 -0.012 (-0.25%)
30-yr Bond 4.932 -0.007 (-0.14%)
NYSE Volume 1,343,313,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,072,973,000

3:00 pm : Still not much has changed as stocks remain in the same narrow range they've been in since Monday. To further reflect just how sluggish this entire week has been, one should look no further than the Top and Bottom 10 S&P industry groups. For the week, Gold, Tires & Rubber, Explorers, Broadcast & Cable TV and Aluminum have been among the best performers; those same five are among today's top ten as well. Even on the flip side, half (e.g. Specialty Consulting Services, Home Furnishings, Consumer Electronics, Trucking and Homebuilding) of this week's biggest laggards are also pacing the way lower today. DJ30 -14.12 NASDAQ +4.35 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1459/1473/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1542/1634/816 mln

2:30 pm : The market continues to tread water, even as investors digest the first policy commentary out of Jackson Hole. At the top of the hour, Fed Governor Donald Kohn said monetary policy is not very effective when financial sectors are weak. While the market has barely blinked at what seems obvious, it is worth noting that ever since the Fed began its tightening activity in June 2004, the Financials sector hasn't outperformed the broader market. Currently, though, Financials are up 5.0% for the year, largely as a result of the Fed standing pat at its last meeting, compared to a 3.8% advance on the S&P 500. DJ30 -21.13 NASDAQ -2.47 SP500 -0.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1484/1418/940 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1580/1555/750 mln

[54anickel]

67. Closing time - just waiting on the blather again

Dow 11,284.05 -20.41 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,140.29 +3.18 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,295.09 -0.97 (-0.07%)
10-yr Bond 4.791 -0.012 (-0.25%)
30-yr Bond 4.932 -0.007 (-0.14%)
NYSE Volume 1,618,649,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,270,709,000

3:30 pm : Market remains mixed going into the close but what few buyers remain appear to be trying to help the indices retrace morning highs. The Nasdaq is faring the best, but that's largely because it has been the worst among the majors this year. To wit, beaten down chip makers (e.g. INTC +2.0%, LVLT +2.5%), networking names (e.g. TLAB +4.5%, JNPR +2.1%), software stocks (e.g. CKFR +5.2%) and biotech issues (e.g. BIIB +1.6%) are providing the bulk of support as bargain hunters continue to scour for discounts. DJ30 -5.28 NASDAQ +7.52 SP500 +1.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1402/1570/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1482/1704/904 mln

3:00 pm : Still not much has changed as stocks remain in the same narrow range they've been in since Monday. To further reflect just how sluggish this entire week has been, one should look no further than the Top and Bottom 10 S&P industry groups. For the week, Gold, Tires & Rubber, Explorers, Broadcast & Cable TV and Aluminum have been among the best performers; those same five are among today's top ten as well. Even on the flip side, half (e.g. Specialty Consulting Services, Home Furnishings, Consumer Electronics, Trucking and Homebuilding) of this week's biggest laggards are also pacing the way lower today. DJ30 -14.12 NASDAQ +4.35 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1459/1473/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1542/1634/816 mln

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1707 (50%) 1578 (50%)
Declines 1507 (44%) 1419 (45%)
Unchanged 174 (5%) 145 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 761 (50%) 763 (61%)
Down Vol* 732 (48%) 457 (36%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (1%) 22 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 70 54
New Lo's 41 58



Have a great weekend everyone! :hi:

[54anickel]

68. The yada....

4:20 pm : With more minds on weekend activities than owning equities, a limited number of investors armed with virtually no market-moving ammunition to reignite last week's rally left the major averages struggling to find their footing Friday.

Since nothing of note was scheduled on the earnings or economic calendars, investors awaited testimony from Bernanke to set the tone for the day. In fact, stocks hit their best levels just before 10:00 ET in anticipation that the Fed Chairman might actually drop some hints about the health of the economy in his speech before world central bankers at the annual Fed symposium Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, no mention about the economic outlook or monetary policy in his prepared remarks left an already cautious market even more fatigued, closing out a week plagued by below average trading volumes that were among the lightest all year in lackluster fashion.

Volatile oil prices were also a focal point Friday, surging as much as 1.9% to $73.75 a barrel intraday amid increasing evidence that a tropical depression in the Caribbean may become a storm strong enough to threaten oil rigs in the Gulf. Fortunately for the bulls, strong subsequent leadership from the earnings-rich Energy sector helped to offset some of oil's inflationary characteristics before the commodity eventually closed nearly unchanged on the session.

From a sector standpoint, the absence of leadership from Financials -- today's worst performing sector, acted as the biggest deterrent for the bulls struggling to mimic any of last week's heroics. Offsetting the benefits of falling bond yields was weakness throughout the Thrifts & Mortgage group (e.g. CFC -2.4%, WM -1.9%) after H&R Block (HRB 20.80 -1.99), which is actually a component of the Consumer Discretionary sector which also struggled, warned of losses on subprime home loans that took a toll on other housing lenders.

Aside from Energy's leadership acting as somewhat of a counterweight, more bargain hunting throughout the beaten-down Technology sector also provided some support, as evidenced by the Nasdaq finishing out the session as the only major average in the green. BTK +1.2% DJ30 -20.41 DJTA +0.2% DJUA +0.1% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +3.18 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.1% SOX -0.2% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -0.97 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1409/1584/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1506/1705/1.06 bln