Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut (American Research Group)

[Pale Blue Dot]

Same exact pattern as the primary. Goodbye, Joe.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ctsenate/

Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.
Lieberman leads Lamont 57% to 18% among enrolled Republicans and 48% to 38% among unaffiliated (independent) voters. Lamont leads Lieberman 65% to 30% among enrolled Democrats.

A total of 56% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman. A total of 47% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont.

Overall, 9% of likely voters have favorable opinions of both Lieberman and Lamont. Of this group, Lieberman leads Lamont 68% to 32%. Of the remaining 91% of likely voters, Lieberman and Lamont are tied at 44% each. Also of the remaining 91% of likely voters, 46% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 51% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 42% have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont.

On edit: CNN link http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/situation.room/blog/2006/08/poll-lieberman-lamont-running-neck-and.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Rasmussen is showing the same thing, BTW

Here is the latest from behind the curtain of Rasmussen premium membership.Rasmussen did a poll monday and right now it is Lieberman 45, Lamont 43, the gambler 6.Not much information available, all he says is lieberman still has good favorables but is down.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/22/8364/21841

[okieinpain]

2. poor loserman, he's going to lose twice in the same election. has

that ever happen before.

[Tuttle]

3. Will Zell give up his seat after losing the election to Ned

and will some DLC weirdos here give up carrying Zell's water???

Tut-tut

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. k

[CreekDog]

5. Lieberman is under 50% --bad news for any incumbent

As Lieberman has been recast as the de facto Republican in the race, as Democrats learn of an accept that determination, they move away from Lieberman and support Lamont. With all the publicity in the race, nearly everyone is learning about the issues with Lieberman's rightward shift. Many centrist voters who weren't paying attention tuned it for the first time after the primary to hear Lieberman's trashing of the Democratic party and I think that hurt Lieberman with a good chunk of centrists.

Sure, the Republicans have responded to Lieberman, but he is exchanging one large base for a smaller base (Dems for Reps).

I think the conventional wisdom about the jeapardy of incumbents with sub 50% support applies to this race. The logic is that late deciders that are motivated enough to vote, often show up to vote against the incumbent. So, the incumbent often polls at his/her ceiling, while the race is often won with greater than 50% of the vote.

Also, the dynamics of this race mean that Lieberman is hemorraging votes from the left and impacted slightly (but decisively) from the right due to the other Republican in the race.

This race has been moving away from Lieberman since March and except for the ever so slight tightening before the primary, the trend is unmistakably against Lieberman.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. What's the CV on a candidate who has already lost?

[minnesota_liberal]

6. Heading over to Ned's site to gime him a boost... (nt)