STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 21 August

[ozymandius]

Monday August 21, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 884 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2067 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1767DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1728
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 18, 2006

Dow... 11,381.47 +46.51 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq... 2,163.95 +6.34 (+0.29%)
S&P 500... 1,302.30 +4.82 (+0.37%)
Gold future... 621.70 -3.60 (-0.58%)
30-Year Bond 4.97% -0.03 (-0.52%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.84% -0.03 (-0.66%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Look at the Oil Sector Using the Cycle Turn and Trend Indicators

Earlier this week I had intermediate-term sell signals on crude oil. This came in the wake of an intermediate-term sell signal the week before in Unleaded Gasoline. Therefore, I decided to take this opportunity to tell you that we should now begin to see at least a little more relief at the gas pump and to apply my Cycle Turn and Trend Indicators to this sector.

I realize that when technical analysts begin to talk their mumbo jumbo on cycles, the average person begins to nod off to sleep. Well, for about two years now I have been working with my Trend Indicator and my Cycle Turn Indicator. These tools give us a graphical representation of the cycle and provide us with important turn points. These indicators work whether being applied to the stock market, oil, bonds, gold, the dollar or what ever. All we have to do is simply follow the lines.

I also apply these indicators on a layered approach. I use the monthly charts for the longer-term work, the weekly chart for the intermediate-term and the daily for the short-term. If the monthly indicators are in agreement with the intermediate and short-term, then all three trends are moving in the same direction. When a short-term degree is moving opposite to the larger degree, there is a counter trend move underway.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no Fed economic reports due today

[AnneD]

23. Morning Marketeers.

:donut: and lurkers. There may be no reports out today but Bush is scheduled to speak (and take questions too), so pie hole alert. It is so hard for me to listen to him. Yeah, it use to be funny catching his gaffs, but now I can't decide whether I want to spew, hurl objects, or die from acute embarrassment. If he looks too stupid, I guess we will be seeing more of the JonBenet confessed killer. I swear-the press is like a cat watching the wrong mouse hole.

We are starting to watch a wave that is from the Cape Verde out of Africa. Looks strong and might turn into a hurricane. Time will tell.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise in Asia trading

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Monday as traders awaited Iran's official response to a package of incentives on its nuclear program and rebounded from declines the week before.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose 77 cents to $71.91 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The October Brent contract on London's ICE Futures Exchange rose 40 cents to $72.70 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 2.49 cents to $2.0144 a gallon. Gasoline futures dropped marginally to $1.9690 a gallon, and natural gas futures fell 11.6 cents to $6.615 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Oil from sunken Philippine tanker threatens second island in Philippines

NUEVA VALENCIA, Philippines (AFP) - Oil from a sunken tanker is threatening a second island in the central Philippines, officials said, as a desperate battle went on to contain the country's worst oil spill.

Thousands of poor villagers scoured beaches and mangroves in a vain attempt to clean up the mess. Foreign contractors will arrive this week to survey the tanker.

Local coastguard commander Harold Jarder said oil had spread from the small island of Guimaras, which has borne the brunt of the disaster, towards the neighbouring large island of Panay.

Jarder said Monday the slick, covering some 15 nautical miles, has hardened after days in the water and under the sun resulting in a "chocolate mousse-like residue." It had been sighted off beaches in Iloilo, the island capital.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060821/sc_afp/philippinesenvironment_060821092936

[UpInArms]

48. Sept Crude @ $71.80 bbl - NatGas @ $6.72 mln btus

1:08 PM ET 8/21/06 SEPT. CRUDE CLIMBS 66 CENTS TO $71.80/BRL AFTER $71.90 HIGH

1:08 PM ET 8/21/06 SEPT. NATURAL GAS FALLS 1.1 CENTS TO $6.72/MLN BTUS

1:08 PM ET 8/21/06 SEPT. HEATING OIL UP 1.6%; SEPT. UNLEADED GAS DOWN 1.1%

[ozymandius]

5. London falls as mining bid talk fades

London equities gave up opening gains to trade lower on Monday as banking shares joined a wider European profit taking trend in the sector,

The FTSE 100 could not sustain initial rises, falling 0.3 per cent to 5,887.2. The mid-cap FTSE 250 was 0.5 per cent weaker at 9,470.5.

Mining stocks had propped up the senior index on reports in the Observer at the weekend that that Xstrata and Rio Tinto were considering launching a break-up bid for rival Anglo American.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060821/bs_ft/fto082120060507554638

[ozymandius]

6. May I ask for volunteers for Thursday and Friday?

We are moving these days and I will be out-of-touch while this takes place. If you are interested please PM me or respond here.

Thank you very much for the consideration.

Ozy :hi:

[raging moderate]

7. I'm not bored; I'm confused.

Please listen to my urgent plea. I suspect it is true of many people. Our eyes are NOT glazing out of boredom, but rather from recurrent disappointment over our failure to understand these things. I have a lot of trouble understanding numbers and graphs and statistics. I cannot even tell whether the stock market is doing well or not. This is a terrible confession, but I can't seem to help it. I gather stocks are gong up, and I read sometimes that this is a good thing. I am not sure what point you are making here. Is the stock market overheating? Are the big investors backing Bush because his policies are helping to line their pockets? I can understand how the economy is much more complex than just the volume of trading on the Stock Market. Could you pleae say more about how these cycles operate, and how the theory of cycles was derived?

[specimenfred1984]

31. Understandable

Market lingo is purposely confusing. Charts are just numbers ploted on a graph. Cycles are simply things that supposedly repeat themselves.

Financial pros are usually trying to sell something, even though it may not be clear what. They'll use cycles, charts, new or analysis of some sort to support their point of view while someone else will use the same info to bolster the exact opposite point.

As you know, most "news" today is propaganda, either corporate or gov't. We're all on our own as to what we believe or not believe. During my first few years of trading I learned that most "news" is crap, it's simply somebody trying to sell you something. I read all financial news with a huge dose of skepticism as most simply cannot be believed.

There's no easy way to understand liars, except to know that they are lying most of the time.

[AnneD]

45. One reason...

this thread is so valuable, there are many skeptic here that have expertise in different fields. It has been an invaluable source of second opinions and a healthy does of truth. I tend to take more seriously things I see here. I have done well using info gleaned here and folks are good about answering tech questions.

SpecimanFred is right-----someone is always trying to part you from yo money. Never forget that.

[54anickel]

8. Check out the Credit Bubble Bulletin for last week. Especially the

Financial Structure section at the end. It gives "excerpts from the Bond Market Association’s August 2006 Research Quarterly".

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

big snip>

“The outstanding volume of total money market instruments, including commercial paper (CP), large time deposits and bankers’ acceptances, totaled just over $3.7 trillion at June 30, a 6.0% increase from the…end of the first quarter … Elevated yields during the period of Fed tightening and the flat to inverted yield curve have attracted investors to the CP market.”

“The U.S. asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) markets have experienced significant growth over the past five years. ABS and CMBS issuance has increased at average annual rates of 25-35% from 2000 to 2005. ABS issuance set a record in 2005, surpassing $1 trillion, and accounted for about a fifth of total bond issuance.”

I read some bullish bond research this week that described real M2 as “one of the most reliable of all leading indicators,” and that it “has declined from a 9% growth rate in December of 2001 to a miniscule 1.1% expansion in the twelve months ending June, 2006.” The report continued: “To have a money/price/wage spiral develop and become entrenched in the economy, money growth must accelerate, be sustained, and lead to a speed-up of price increases across the board… This happened in the 1960s and 1970s… M2 growth averaged 7% in the 1960’s, and then accelerated to almost 10% in the 1970s… The current situation is extremely different. In the past two years, M2 growth has averaged just 4.2% per annum, a far cry from the pattern in the 1960s and 1970s, and well below the 6.6% average increase in M2 since 1900.”

I’ve proffered the view that the (narrow “money”) monetary aggregates have become one of the most deceptive of all indictors. Importantly, the U.S. Financial Structure has gone through a radical transformation over the past decade, a process that has only accelerated the past few years. M2 components (chiefly currency, bank demand & savings deposits, and retail money market fund assets) have been largely trivialized by financial evolution and simply no longer capture the essence of system Credit expansion. On many levels, “Wall Street finance” has taken full command of the financial apparatus, relegating traditional monetary indicators and analysis to the status of hopelessly obsolete.

From the Bond Market Association research noted above, we see that ABS issuance “increased at average annual rates of 25-35% from 2000 to 2005.” What’s more, the “outstanding volume of money market instruments, including commercial paper (CP), large time deposits and bankers’ acceptances” totaled $3.15 Trillion at the end of June. There was eye-opening 17.5% growth during the past year, with nominal “money market instrument” expansion of $550 billion significantly outpacing the $300 billion y-o-y increase in M2. During the past two years, outstanding “money market instruments” inflated by over $1 Trillion, or 40%, with CP posting a two-year expansion of 34% and Large Time Deposits surging 46%. Such historic monetary expansion is completely at odds with the bullish notion of persisting disinflation.

I’ve made the case repeatedly that when analyzing pricing trends and the nature of Inflationary Manifestations one must diligently concentrate on the expansion of the broadest range of “money” and Credit instruments. With such a perspective, one can recognize the current Financial Structure as a spectacular inflationary engine, although much of this inflation has of course manifested in higher asset and commodities prices.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Why Looming Stagflation (and Other Indicators) Reminds Me of 1973

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=57468

I spent much of last year, crying “Wolf” about a modern 1973. Then early this year, Jeff Cooper, a technical analyst pointed out that 2005 was (technically) a lot like 1972, implying that it would be 2006 that would be like 1973. Although this theory may now enjoy some technical support, more important is the fact that it is finally beginning to come about on a fundamental basis.

Oil prices are the single most important force in the market right now, as it was then, and even companies producing other commodities such as chemicals and metals that are inflation hedges are finding their profits squeezed by high fuel (and labor) costs. And people like Bill O’Connor weigh in on an almost daily basis with news of another decline in production from a major oilfield somewhere in the world. “Peak oil,” (a fall-off in oil production from its peak) was operative for the United States in the 1970s; now it is taking place on a global basis. This theory is supported by the fact that production has not been rising in the wake of price increases, unlike the past.

The supply of oil now appears to be “inelastic,” (unresponsive to the incentive of higher realizations). That’s because while the world spent much of the 1980s and 1990s consuming millions of barrels a day less oil than sources were capable of producing, there is now essentially no gap between world demand (fueled at the margin by China and India), and global supply. The Saudis are producing oil flat out, at the behest of the Western world, particularly its U.S. allies. It’s not hard to imagine what might happen if and when they start to drag their feet. A festering civil war in Iraq could curtail output from that source, as could any military action involving Iran. With Mexican supplies declining, other fuel producers in Latin America (e.g. Venezuela and Bolivia) have no incentive to take care of Uncle Sam.

In response to the resulting inflation, the Fed seems genuinely confused about whether to tighten or not. First the governors read a report that the economy is slowing down. So the Fed zigs in a policy statement. Then they read another report about another price spurt. Then the Fed zags. That’s because it’s supposed to be about one or the other but not both; these things aren’t aren’t supposed to happen in combination. Except that they did—as in 1973. This was marked by the fact that bonds fell for nine straight days, the first time since 1973, before stabilizing recently. So the recent non-event does not signal, “all clear,” but rather a movement along the path of least resistance.

This is all because the country finally seems tapped out while on the inflation roller coaster, after an unhealthy combination of guns and butter spending, as in the early 1970s. This was due to the Vietnam War and the Great Society in the earlier period, and the Iraq war and the housing-led consumer boom more recently. Both periods witnessed skyrocketing trade and budget deficits (with some backing and filling like we have seen recently). And productivity growth moderated just as price pressures (especially for wages) started to make their weight felt.

more...

[Roland99]

42. Commentary: They see similarities in 2006 to the '87 crash

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA6C3B0B0%2D3ACA%2D493D%2D8A66%2D64125E3D77D4%7D&siteid=

Mauldin's more-alarming afterthought: a chart argument made by Bill King in his daily King Report that the S&P 500 action after June has produced what King calls a "W pattern" with three forays up to 1,280-1,300 separated by two down to 1,220.

Ominously, King notes, that's just what happened before the 1987 Crash.
King wrote: "We are NOT suggesting that a 1987-like crash is imminent; but we are warning that 'W' formations can lead to dramatic market reversals. The current stock market is in a weaker technical position that it was in 1987 as evinced by its position to its quarterly and yearly moving averages. In 1987 interest rates were much higher, but the economy was stronger and the US trade deficit problem was in its embryonic stage."

King's conclusion: "The moral of the story is stocks need to rally sharply from here to negate the 'W' pattern, or on any decline stocks must NOT breach the base of the 'W' pattern." (i.e. 1,220). If a stock decline violates the base of the 'W' pattern, Big Mo, as in 'Momentum Players' will be unleashed by traders and investors and he will be hurling red tickets."

...

And, as it happens, from a very different perspective, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini last week also published a discussion on his Roubini Global Economic service on "The Scary Similarities between 2006 and 1987."

Among other factors, Roubini cites "trade protectionism and asset protectionism; hedgy and trigger-happy investors and rising geopolitical risks; the risk of a disorderly fall in the U.S. dollar; a slush of financial derivatives that are a black box that no-one understands... frothy markets where years of too easy money have created bubbles galore - the latest in housing - that are ready to burst; a bubble of thousands of new hedge funds with inexperienced managers...a housing market whose rout may trigger systemic effects ..."

[AnneD]

46. I don't have the facts...

but I have had a deja vu feeling about this market since late last year. I guess it was the RE market that has given me that feeling. The market is so overvalued and our fundamentals are weak. I don't know what will set it off, but things are just not right. I pulled out of the 87 market about 9 mos before it tanked. Boy was that great. All the stocks that I wanted were suddenly affordable. I have a shopping list ready but it will really have to be a good company-and even then, I may not buy. And I want dividend checks dammit-not this buy back shares crap.

[54anickel]

50. It's going to take years for the letter "W" to recoup from all the

negativity surrounding it these days. Chart patterns, Wingnuts, lies about missing "W" keys, and then there's Dimson himself. Maybe it should just drop out of the alphabet. If I were I a "W" I'd be walking around on my head and using the alias of "M".

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.53 Change -0.25 (-0.29%)

Dollar Down on Delayed Response to Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollar_Down_on_Delayed_Response_1156151374718.html

The EUR/USD cleared the 1.2900 hurdle in early European trade for the first time in 10 days, as currency traders having comeback from the summertime weekend sold the greenback in a delayed response to dour US economic data on Friday. The plunge in U of M consumer sentiment readings, which slid to 78.7 from 84.7 in July caused US bond yields to fall, subsequently putting pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, news from the Euro-zone was decidedly more positive with ECB’s Weber predicting that German GDP growth will approach 2% this year while German Finance Ministry reported that July Federal State Tax revenues rose 11.5% on a year over year basis. The growth in tax receipts suggests that the pace of business in Euro-zone largest economy has picked up markedly, but questions still remain whether this increase in economic activity is truly genuine or more a function of the one off demand spurred by the World Cup tournament. The next several months will tell if European recovery is sustainable.

One possible source of worry is the continued strength in the EUR/JPY cross which could impact export growth to Asia. The cross reached all time highs once again tonight breaking the 149.00 barrier. The pair has been propelled by diverging interest rate expectations, with most traders expecting the BOJ to remain pat for the rest for the year while the ECB is forecast to raise rates another 50 basis points by end of 2006. With the ECB, the only major bank committed to monetary tightening, the EUR/JPY pair has benefited from the relentless buying by carry traders hoping to harvest the yield differential during the last few weeks of quiet summer trading.

However, the further this moves goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a sharp sell off. Latest IMM positioning shows euro longs maintaining very high levels at 90.2K contracts, and while that position can certainly grow larger, it is clearly approaching extreme levels. Furthermore, Japanese inflation data due out this Friday may finally force the country’s monetary officials to abandon their ultra cautious approach and consider another rate hike before the year end. While the 150.00 EUR/JPY level looms large and may just be too tempting to a stop hunt, the up move could end quickly if the market perceives even the slightest change in interest rate policies. With Japanese government bonds yielding 1.800% - well below the key 2.00% psychological level – yen bulls no doubt have a tough road to travel, but as EUR/JPY inexorably makes its way to 150.00 the possibility of a sharp correction becomes greater each day.

...more...

Dollar at 11-week euro low; euro sets new high vs. yen

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B942391BA%2D6606%2D4ED0%2DBECE%2D9E8265150A79%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar slumped to an 11-week low versus the euro to start the week on growing expectations that the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and other economies in the world will narrow soon. "There does not appear to be fresh developments behind the dollar's push lower today, but rather a continuation of what was seen at the end of last week," said Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Market sentiment is decidedly dollar bearish as many players believe there is support for the Federal Reserve's claim that the moderation of the economy will ease price pressures." Meanwhile, the euro rose to a new all-time high versus the yen amid uncertainty over the interest-rate outlook in Japan. The euro was last up 0.6% at $1.2906, after rising to $1.2923, while the dollar was down 0.04% at 115.73 yen. The euro was at 149.38 yen, after touching 149.47 yen.

[54anickel]

11. Talk of global slowdown overdone

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/7050dbda-3044-11db-9156-0000779e2340.html

Interest rate rises in the US have led a marked tightening in global monetary conditions during the past two years.

Now, the subsequent economic slowdown and fears over the possibility of a recession next year are preoccupying markets. This is reflected in the sharp fall in the US 10-year bond yield since June. However, growth outside the US remains healthy and real global interest rates are still low by historic standards.

ABN Amro’s economists warn that markets are underestimating the potential for cyclical upward pressure on interest rates. As global growth remains robust, Robert Lind of ABN Amro says there is a risk that real short-term interest rates and bond yields will have to rise further before they have an impact on economic activity.

“With mounting evidence of intensifying inflationary pressures, markets will have to push up their estimate of the neutral real policy rate,” says Mr Lind.

Stephen Lewis of Insinger de Beaufort says the resilience shown by the leading bond and equity markets is probably the result of the persistence of surplus liquidity. Mr Lewis says policymakers have to think hard about the implications of the liquidity overhang and companies could be tempted into unwise spending decisions as a result of inflated asset prices.

more...

[54anickel]

12. For many, next year's raise could be a stinker

http://www.usatoday.com/money/workplace/2006-08-21-salaries-usat_x.htm

Employees can expect raises next year that are only slightly better than years past, and much of the gains will be eaten up by inflation.

Employers plan to grant average pay raises of 3.7% in 2006, just up from the 3.6% average in 2005, according to a study by benefits consultants Mercer Human Resource Consulting. Increases also are projected to be 3.7% in 2007.

Employers are trying to ease the financial pain with more one-time incentives, such as sign-on and spot bonuses, that don't add to fixed compensation costs.

"Employees are saying, 'My cost of living is going up, and the salary increase is barely covering that cost,' " says Steven Gross of Mercer. "In one sense, the economy is looking good, you think there would be higher salary (increases). But the economy is slowing down, and job creation just isn't that strong."

The last time raises were truly robust was 2001, with an average 4.4% increase.

more...

[RawMaterials]

13. Computer-based models to replace the investment advisor?

Analysis A number of recently published features and surveys evidence the continued growth in quantitative investment.

Quantitative investment is based on the deployment of computer generated investment decisions. It is reputed to be growing at 20 per cent per year. Major conventional fund managers as well as hedge funds are increasingly deploying computer-based models to make investment decisions rather than relying on human judgement - or is that a myth?

Quantitative investment managers use a model to identify sets of characteristics for their investments. Computing power is now relatively cheap. Obviously, computing power can access data almost instantaneously and simultaneously. Asset classes and financial instruments within those asset classes can then be screened and investments are selected. They reflect the manager's views.

These models normally determine the investment decisions and so replace the traditional portfolio manager's role. It is contended that this approach eliminates human emotion and personal bias, which can impede effective portfolio management.

More importantly, the models provide insight into market inefficiencies to be applied rapidly across asset classes and the vast number of financial instruments within those asset classes. Whole markets can be analysed daily for buy and sell indications at an individual instrument level. This enables portfolios to contain a larger number of instruments and reduce risk through greater diversification of the portfolio.

snip..

Quantitative management focuses on collection and analysis of historical data. In consequence it is alleged to have a selection tendency towards so-called "value-based" investment selections with a strong bias to selection of companies with strong cash flow and solid tangible assets. This ignores or places a lower rating on matters such as quality of management, products and services, and innovation not yet translated into cash flow such as intellectual property, for example brands and patents.

Successful quantitative managers must be innovative, "seeking to extract the best from man and machine" to produce a quantitative investment process that is fast, accurate and exceptional in execution. The process has to deliver consistent performance both of markets and competitors in the asset classes with an ability to adapt. In a fiercely competitive environment of financial markets, this is a continual and evolving challenge. An active quantitative investment approach must blend people's insight and creativity with the efficiency and speed that technology can supply.

Investment performance is ultimately dependent on the quality, innovation and insight of research. Quantitative managers should be interested in all opportunities to outperform the benchmark return. Ideas, which evolve and contribute to this achievement, will not come from a machine but from people.



http://www.theregister.com/2006/08/21/computer_generated_financial_markets/

[54anickel]

16. The Credit Bubble Bulletin posted earlier touches on the increased

spending on IT by the hedge funds.

snip>

Speculator Watch:

August 16 – Financial Times (Gillian Tett): “Hedge funds and banks are set to spend almost $500m on new information technology this year as they scramble to improve their credit derivatives trading systems…The extra spending on new systems…represents a six-fold leap from 2004, when data was first collected, according to Aite Group…”

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

[54anickel]

14. Consumers to feel squeeze as orange juice price hits 16-year high

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060820/ts_afp/worldcommoditiesfarm_060820212932

LONDON (AFP) - A carton of orange juice could be set for a steep price rise after wholesale prices of the tropical juice hit 16-year highs last week on fears for the harvest in the US state of Florida.

In New York, where the juice is traded, the price of orange juice for delivery in September reached 1.876 dollars a pound (450 grams) on Thursday, its highest level since July 1990.

"The last two years, the '04 and '05 crops in Florida were ravaged by three hurricanes that reduced production from anywhere between 35-45 percent from where it was running the previous years," said James Cordier, head trader at the Liberty Trading commodities brokerage in Tampa, Florida.

"A hurricane scare (now) would put us well above two dollars. Hurricane damage would send us to 2.20 or 2.30 dollars," he said.

snip>

The United States, which used to be the biggest producer of orange juice in the world, has now been overtaken by Brazil as a result of the loss of productivity in Florida, nicknamed the "Sunshine State".

more...

[UpInArms]

15. 10:00 EST PIEHOLE ALERT:

Bush to hold news conference at 10 am EDT/1400 GMT

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N21464201.htm

WASHINGTON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush will hold a news conference at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Monday, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.

Bush, who spent last week conferring with his foreign policy, national security and counterterrorism teams, is certain to face questions about the fragile truce between Israel and Hizbollah in southern Lebanon as well as the situation in Iraq.

thanks to sabra and this DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2466842

The only thing Dimson can say that has any interest for me is that he and his entire maladministration is resigning and offering themselves up to the mercy of the Internation Criminal Court for war crimes committed.

[54anickel]

18. I'm guessing he's got to try and make up for that pitiful performance

on Friday from Camp David. I don't think they took enough time to sober him up before he went on. Strange that Faux kept the camera rolling on him as he "swaggered" away.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCbNFvrgiaI

[UpInArms]

24. shit falls out

10:12 AM ET 8/21/06 BUSH: U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ WOULD BE 'HUGE MISTAKE'

10:11 AM ET 8/21/06 BUSH SAYS IRAQIS WANT UNIFIED COUNTRY, NOT CIVIL WAR

10:05 AM ET 8/21/06 BUSH: UN PEACEKEEPING FORCE MUST QUICKLY DEPLOY TO LEBANON

[UpInArms]

26. and some more

10:44 AM ET 8/21/06 BUSH SAYS SPOKE WITH CHINA'S HU ON MONDAY ABOUT NORTH KOREA

[UpInArms]

28. Dimson shows stupidity again

10:52 AM ET 8/21/06 BUSH SAYS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES SHOULD CAMPAIGN ON ECONOMY

[54anickel]

32. Bwahahaha! I was wondering if anything would come from his little

economic meeting on Friday. I'd bet the entire meeting revolved around Dimson demanding, "I don't care what you have to do to get it, just give me something good to say about the economy!"

[UpInArms]

33. Dimson ignores HUGE MISTAKE of invasion/occupation of Iraq

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6EBE89B6%2DFCA1%2D4361%2D92EF%2D8047952E102A%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq would be a terrible mistake, President Bush said Monday. "We're not leaving so long as I'm the president. That would be a huge mistake," Bush said during an hour-long press conference. Bush rejected the argument that Iraq has now devolved into civil war. "I've talked to a lot of people and what I've found from my talks is that the Iraqis want a unified country," he said.

[54anickel]

35. Who the hell is he talking to anyway?

"I've talked to a lot of people and what I've found from my talks is that the Iraqis want a unified country," he said.

[AnneD]

47. He talks to

the voices in his head-and they all agree that he is right.:eyes:

[54anickel]

55. President on a Mission

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2006/08/21/BL2006082100700.html

President Bush was on a mission this morning: Trying to stamp out a growing national consensus that things in the Middle East are going from bad to worse, and that it's past time to start bringing the troops home from Iraq.

"If you think it's bad now," Bush said bluntly, "imagine what Iraq would look like if the United States leaves before this government can defend itself and sustain itself. Chaos in Iraq would be very unsettling in the region. . . . Leaving before the job is done would be a disaster, and that's what we're saying."

And while Bush is opposed to any timetable for withdrawal, he clearly has some sense of a timetable for staying. "We're not leaving so long as I'm the president," Bush said. "That would be a huge mistake."

Bush held forth in a press conference called with less than two hours' notice this morning. And whether the topic was Iraq or Lebanon, Bush wasted no time on nuance or details that might have distracted from his central message. Here's the transcript .

Pretty much regardless of what he was asked, Bush had the same answer: That anything short of his policies is tantamount to surrendering to terrorists and would be disastrous.

snip>

Herman: "What did Iraq have to do with that?"

Bush: "What did Iraq have to do with what?"

Herman: "The attacks upon the World Trade Center?"

Bush: "Nothing. Except for it's part of -- and nobody's ever suggested in this administration that Saddam Hussein ordered the attack. Iraq was a -- Iraq -- the lesson of September the 11th is: Take threats before they fully materialize, Ken. . . .

more...

[UpInArms]

17. Treasurys modestly higher in early trade as equities dip

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC96F8A2B%2D0F18%2D42D6%2DB777%2DD8EBEB52D1DA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were trending slightly higher in the early going Monday, benefitting from indications that stocks could open at lower levels and worrisome developments in the Middle East. The Treasury market in recent sessions in general has moved higher on expectations that the current rate tightening cycle could end soon due to a weakening economy. Safe-haven interest in bonds was intensified Monday by a standoff between Iran and Western nations over Iran's nuclear program. In addition, there are disagreements between European nations over how to conduct the U.N. peace-keeping force in Lebanon. There are no scheduled economic reports to help drive price action Monday. The benchmark 10-year note last was up 1/32 at 100-10/32 with a yield ($TNX : 48.35, -0.02, 0.0% ) of 4.835%.

[UpInArms]

22. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds bank reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-21T133402Z_01_N21343493_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[54anickel]

19. Rents Are Rising Rapidly After Long Lull

Damn! Wonder when they'll juggle actual home prices for rental equivalents in the CPI calcs.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/19/business/19rents.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Mike Gain, the co-owner of a property management firm in Seattle, took a step this spring that he had avoided for years: he raised rents.

“We had been afraid to do that,” Mr. Gain said. “Over the years, we were actually reducing rents. But we increased rents by 3 to 5 percent and there were absolutely zero repercussions.”

This kind of shift is under way in many cities across the country, including Atlanta, where rents actually fell from 2003 through the first half of last year, as well as Cincinnati, Dallas and Phoenix. The only region of the country that is resisting the trend is the Midwest, where industrial job losses and other factors continue to hold rents down.

According to government data, in both June and July average rents across the country were 3.5 percent higher than a year earlier, the steepest gains in almost four years. And it is feeding into a broader rise in inflation.

The rise in apartment rents is in many ways a consequence of what has happened to home prices. As mortgage rates have begun to creep up and as home prices have soared out of reach of many Americans, many renters who a couple of years ago might have bought a home are staying put. This is tightening the rental market to the point where apartment owners now have more leverage to demand higher monthly payments.

more...

[Roland99]

43. I'm noticing a rise in rents *and* home prices here

For some reason, Louisville has always managed to escape a downside to housing prices and I'm seeing prices rise faster in the last 3 years than they did in the 5 years prior to that.

I'll be in the market for a house next year and the price range I was thinking would get me in the area(s) I want to be in with the type of house I want are about $40k too low.


:scared:

[54anickel]

20. Firms can't get enough of their own shares

Buybacks can reflect corporate confidence, but critics see dangers

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-buybacks_20bus.ART.State.Edition1.31ad140.html


U.S. corporations are slurping up their own shares like it's feeding time on a pig farm.

Companies in the S&P 500 spent $349 billion repurchasing their shares last year, compared with $197 billion in 2004, and that figure is expected to move even higher this year.

Amid the stock market's meanderings, those buybacks have provided a source of optimism. Anytime big investors are buying – even if it's companies repurchasing their own shares – that's good news for the market.

But some analysts question whether stock buybacks are good for the companies that undertake them, particularly in the long run. For example, the companies may be tempted to use the shares for acquisitions, and companies that go on corporate shopping sprees often wind up with buyer's remorse.

What's not in dispute is that the volume of buybacks continues to set records.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.8. Bearish bias persists in pre-market action as sellers still look to have the upper hand at the onset of trading. So far, it looks like last week's best performing S&P sectors may be among today's worst. Technology led the way over the last five days surging nearly 7% and more than halving its year-to-date decline; but as evidenced by the tech-heavy Composite succumbing to the most pressure early on, everything from semiconductors to software are shaping up to open on a downbeat note. In contrast, laggards like oil and gold look to regain some momentum.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.5. Stage remains set for early profit taking to remove some of the momentum that lifted stocks to three month highs last week as futures continue to languish below fair value. The absence of market-moving economic data until Wednesday to perhaps lend further proof that the Fed will continue to stand pat with its current tightening cycle and oil prices up another 1.0% after Iran refused to suspend its uranium enrichment program and test-fired missiles are also leaving the door open for investors to lock in some recent gains.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.2. Early indications do not bode well for the bulls, as a negative disposition in the futures market suggests that the longest winning streak for stocks in five months may come to an end. With the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 2.6%, 2.8% and 5.2%, respectively, last week, a sense that the market may have gotten ahead of itself, coupled with this morning's only notable earnings report -- Lowe's (LOW) missing expectations and cutting its full-year outlook -- merely exacerbating concerns about the impact higher energy prices and a slowing housing market are having on corporate profit growth are prompting some early consolidation.

[UpInArms]

25. market statistics

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NYSE VOLUME 209.7M

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ VOLUME 271.6M

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 1,035 ADVANCERS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 1,790 DECLINERS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 167 ISSUES UNCHANGED

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 766 ADVANCERS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 1,826 DECLINERS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 118 ISSUES UNCHANGED

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 67 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 9 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 56 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

10:21 AM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 38 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

[UpInArms]

44. afternoon market statistics

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NYSE VOLUME 539.3M

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ VOLUME 685.4M

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 1,090 ADVANCERS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 2,009 DECLINERS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 155 ISSUES UNCHANGED

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 837 GAINERS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 2,045 LOSERS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 146 ISSUES UNCHANGED

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 69 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NYSE HAS 10 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 31 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

12:34 PM ET 8/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 30 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

[UpInArms]

27. 10:51 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,347.05 -34.42 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,148.02 -15.93 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,298.47 -3.83 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.827 -0.008 (-0.17%)

NYSE Volume 488,362,000
Nasdaq Volume 384,173,000

10:30 am : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. Industry leadership, however, is now evenly split with five of 10 sectors posting gains, as gold and copper prices hitting session highs as well as nickel prices touching record levels help Materials turn positive. To wit, Gold (+2.2%) and Diversified Metals (+2.0%) are now the day's best performing S&P industry groups. Be that as it may, a turnaround in an area that only accounts for 3.1% of the total weighting on the S&P 500 is so far having little impact on the broader market. DJ30 -35.94 NASDAQ -16.50 SP500 -4.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1798/816/316 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1776/1047/250 mln

10:00 am : Equities are still on the defensive as six out of 10 sectors are trading lower. Technology (-1.2%), last week's best performer (+6.96%), is pacing the way lower this morning, as investors consolidate gains in everything from semiconductors (-1.6%) to networking (-1.7%). Consumer Discretionary, a beneficiary of oil's more than 4% pullback last week, ranks second among today's biggest laggards amid a 1% rebound in the price of crude, the disappointing report from Lowe's and an analyst downgrade on Ford Motor (F 7.67 -0.33). Another notable leader to the downside and stalling some of the market's recent momentum is the Industrials sector (-0.8%), which was also among last week's top three performers (+4.16%). DJ30 -37.22 NASDAQ -16.70 SP500 -4.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1751/701/172 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1652/886/138 mln

[54anickel]

29. Sheesh, what's the deal with Treasuries? n/t

[54anickel]

30. Brazil's Road to Energy Independence

Alternative-Fuel Strategy, Rooted in Ethanol From Sugar Cane, Seen as Model

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/19/AR2006081900842.html

SAO PAULO, Brazil -- Record oil prices have made the world's energy landscape a darkly foreboding place this year, inhospitable to optimism and celebration. Except in Brazil.

It has been something of a banner year here, full of milestones. The government predicts that for the first time in its history, Brazil will achieve energy equilibrium, exporting as much oil as it imports. The production of sugar cane-based ethanol is expected to reach an all-time high. And just three years after the introduction here of flex-fuel vehicles -- cars that run on either ethanol or gasoline -- several major automakers predict that such vehicles will represent 100 percent of their production by the end of the year, eliminating gas-only models.

Pull up to most service stations in this country of 185 million people and you will find fuel pumps offering three choices: ethanol, gasoline or premium gasoline. The labels are slightly misleading: The gasoline varieties are blends that contain at least 20 percent ethanol. The pure ethanol is usually significantly cheaper -- 53 cents per liter (about $2 per gallon), compared with about 99 cents per liter for gasoline ($3.74 per gallon) in Sao Paulo this past week.

snip>

Since President Bush this year emphasized ethanol as one possible solution to U.S. oil dependence, Brazil has become a destination of choice for curious U.S. lawmakers and venture capitalists searching for a crystal ball in which to glimpse America's future. Ethanol is not solely responsible for Brazil's newfound energy independence -- domestic oil exploration has exploded in recent years -- but it has replaced about 40 percent of the country's gasoline consumption, according to Caio Carvalhal, an analyst with Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Rio de Janeiro.

snip>

Brazil's military dictatorship launched the national ethanol program in 1975, when about 90 percent of its fuel consumption depended on foreign oil. The government offered subsidies to sugar cane growers and forced service stations in every town of at least 1,500 people to install ethanol pumps. By the early 1980s, almost all new cars sold in Brazil ran on 100 percent ethanol.

But as the decade progressed and the military government was replaced by democracy, oil prices plummeted and the subsidies granted to ethanol producers were eliminated. Sugar processing plants turned from ethanol to edible sugar, creating a shortage of supplies at service stations. The auto industry, which had dedicated itself to ethanol-only cars, stopped producing them almost entirely.

more...

[54anickel]

36. Food, biofuels could worsen water shortages

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-08-21T102958Z_01_L18850725_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENVIRONMENT-WATER.xml&src=rss&rpc=22

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Surging demand for irrigation to produce food and biofuels is likely to aggravate scarcities of water but the world's supply is not running out, an international report said on Monday.

"One in three people is enduring one form or another of water scarcity," the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) said in a report compiled by 700 experts and backed by the United Nations and farm research groups.

The scarcity figures were higher than previous estimates.

"Conquering hunger and coping with an estimated 3 billion extra people by 2050 will result in an 80 percent increase in water use for agriculture on rainfed and irrigated lands," it added.

Demand for irrigation -- which absorbs about 74 percent of all water used by people against 18 percent for hydropower and other industrial uses and just 8 percent for households -- was likely to surge by 2050.

Many nations are also shifting to produce biofuels -- from sugarcane, corn or wood -- as a less polluting alternative to fossil fuels. Oil prices at $75 a barrel and worries about global warming are driving the shift.

more...

[54anickel]

34. Big Cooperative Push in Venezuela

Incentives are helping to spur the wealth-sharing business model. Some question its viability.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-coops21aug21,1,3609004.story?coll=la-headlines-business

MARGARITA ISLAND, Venezuela — For 20 years, Eustacio Aguilera's family owned the Hotel Residencia Guaiqueri in this tourist destination and free-trade zone.

He hired the cooks, the maintenance men and the cleaning women. But now when he asks them to prepare a meal or tidy a room, he is careful to treat them collegially. The staff may do menial work, but they are also co-owners.

"Before we had a boss. Now we are the bosses," said Hermogenes Garcia, a longtime maintenance man at the Guaiqueri.

The hotel is among 100,000 cooperatives formed in Venezuela in the last two years that are the centerpiece of President Hugo Chavez's new socialist model to create jobs and redistribute this oil-rich country's wealth. They now employ 7% of the country's workforce, a number that could grow to 30% in a few years, government officials say.

Chavez is spending hundreds of millions of dollars in oil and tax revenue on the cooperatives. Although there have been allegations of gross inefficiency and graft, cooperatives have become a powerful part of the economy and society.

more...

[54anickel]

37. The terror behind the economic numbers

http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/aug2006/082106/article.mgi

snip>

One thing economists rarely make reference to in the ongoing discussion of the global economic boom is the effect that mass psychology has on the economy. Although consumer sentiment indexes do exist they are interpreted with a rather straight-forward conventional approach instead of from the contrarian psychological standpoint. Bombings, and equally significant ­ the fear of bombs ­ has been the X-factor of the global economy and U.S. stock market this year. This will be the focus of the second half of our commentary.

By my count there have been at least 700 terrorist bombings (not counting military bombings) since the beginning of this year through August 18 on a global scale and mostly in the Middle East. This number doesn't include the number of bombing attempts that failed or bombs that were diffused, nor does it contain the growing number of bomb threats (which can have the same psychological impact as an actual bombing). The total death toll this year from all non-military bombings is just over 3,200. Most of the deaths occurred in the Mid-East region. The number wounded from terrorist bombings so far this year is well over 10,000. If we combine the number of deaths from all forms of (mostly) Mid-East violence this year, military and terrorist, the number killed is in the tens of thousands. (In a future commentary we'll discuss the population reduction motive behind bombing campaigns but for now our focus is on the psychological/economic effects of bombings).

That strategically timed bombing campaigns, both terrorist and military, can provided an added support beneath the major stock markets as well as bolster the global economy, was a profitable discovery made by the global financial controllers. This is because both the market and the economy are buoyed and to a large extent driven by the base human emotion of fear. The more fear is generated through bombings and other forms of orchestrated terror, and the more this fear is emphasized by the media, it serves as an economic shock absorber and can prevent severe stock price declines from occurring. This was the formula used to halt the stock market slide of 2001 and also has been used to great effect ever since.

To see how "bombing support" has worked this year take a look at the graph provided below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year to date. Notice how major terrorist bombings strategically bolstered the Dow at a number of points along the way and in some cases seemed to provide the market with some extra impetus:

more... :freak:

[Tace]

49. This One Really Got To Me Yesterday

My first reaction was "bullshit," but then I realized he making sense.

[54anickel]

54. Yeah, had the same reaction - hence the smilie at the end. Sure gets

you thinking. :freak:

[54anickel]

38. The Bond Market Has it Wrong

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff081806.html

Perhaps Abraham Lincoln would never have devised his famous adage about fooling all the people all the time if he had a chance to observe the current bond market's complete obedience to Fed propaganda. In an exercise in mass hypnosis that would have made Orson Wells jealous, the Fed has managed to convinced bond investors that inflation no longer matters. This is like convincing major league managers that batting average no longer matters. It was a long process, but for now at least, the Fed should celebrate their communications victory, at least until the actual carnage becomes too heavy to ignore.

In an article earlier this week in the Wall Street Journal, as in many other recent media reports, a professional bond investor says that he is no longer focusing very intently on CPI reports. After all, says the bond trader, the Fed has said that growth is the thing to watch now and that any current signs of rising inflation are backward looking. As a result, at a time when even the most watered down data reveal that inflation is running at its fastest pace since the early 1980's, Treasury yields have remained significantly below the current 5.25% Fed funds rate. How could this have happened? How could professional bond investors speed through these stop signs at 75 mph? It happened step by step.

The first step was convincing the markets that hedonic adjustments were okay. Next came the legitimization of substitution bias. Then the Fed convinced everybody to ignore monthly increases in food and energy. When that wasn't enough, it got everybody to ignore yearly increases in food and energy. Finally, when even all these tricks were not enough to conceal the growth of inflation, the Fed finally played its trump card by telling the markets that inflation is the poor step-child of its much more import parent, GDP growth.

This week, when the government reported better then expected PPI and CPI, data, the bond market went ballistic, as traders took the government's bait hook, line and sinker. Equities went along for the ride, and a good time was had by all. Lost in the shuffle was the renewed weakness in dollar, which has lost about 2% of its value relative to other currencies over the past month. The Fed pause has given currency traders the "all clear" to sell the dollar. Combine that with a poor technical outlook and I look for the dollar to meet with some intense seller pressure in the coming months.

more...

[54anickel]

39. The next big pension crunch

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheNextBigPensionCrunch.aspx

Many cities, counties and states have underfunded pension plans for years, betting the stock market would bail them out. With the economy softening, the bill is coming due.

By Bill Fleckenstein
Initially last Wednesday, Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs) CEO John Chambers was able to convince folks that his company's results were wonderful -- and "specific" to the entire galaxy (or at least all tech stocks). What results precipitated that, you might ask? In essence, Cisco was able to win at beat-the-number for this quarter, and next year's guidance was basically as had been expected (though the acquisition of Scientific-Atlanta caused its revenues to be projected slightly higher for 2007 than had been previously thought).

Of course, dead fish being what they are, nobody asked: If everything is so wonderful, how come in the last year -- when revenues rose $1.4 billion -- receivables rose $1.1 billion? (Stated differently, revenues were up 21% year-over-year, but receivables were up 50%.) Sequentially, receivables grew only 10.7%, versus a 9% increase in revenues. Thus, making the number is a joke when laid against those receivables. Nevertheless, the bulls' verdict was: Buy everything in tech (though the vote turned by day's end).

Neither a borrower nor a lender be
Meanwhile on Wednesday, the financing mechanism of the housing ATM food chain saw some holes blown in it. Specifically, Accredited Home Lenders (LEND, news, msgs) was down over 20% on a poor quarter. Accredited Home (like New Century Financial (NEW, news, msgs) a week earlier) was forced to keep the loans that it was unable to sell.

No prisoners were taken last Wednesday -- witness the pummeling not just of Accredited Home but also New Century and Countrywide Financial (CFC, news, msgs). (CFC's monthly comps were horrific.) Adding to the angst: Toll Brothers (TOL, news, msgs) and WCI Communities (WCI, news, msgs) -- "building" blocks in the housing ATM itself -- reported poor results that day, which saw the homebuilders under pressure. Ditto all those members of the financial-dark-matter group that I mentioned in last week's Contrarian.

Indeed, the early stock-market action on Wednesday was quite a dichotomy to behold. Chambers, one of the biggest cheerleaders from the tech bubble, was able to excite the tech tape, at least initially, amidst the damage to the housing-ATM structure that's powered our economy through and past the original bubble's aftermath.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Dow theorist says recession may be unavoidable

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-08-16T195710Z_01_N16436439_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-MARKETS-RUSSELL.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Richard Russell is feeling like less of a loner these days.

The founder and scribe of the Dow Theory Letters, which examine stock-market trends, has been warning in recent years that U.S. economic growth would slow far more than anyone could imagine. Many investors and analysts are now coming around to his view, sounding alarm bells about the growing risk of recession in 2007.

Still, Russell differs -- again -- with the masses.

The U.S. economy can hardly avoid such a slump, he said, as it grapples with elevated energy prices and a housing market slowdown in the face of an already indebted consumer.

"We are in for a major recession," Russell said in an interview with Reuters. "I don't think we will get a soft landing in housing. There is just too much debt as far as the consumer goes -- and there have been tons of speculators in the housing market."

more...

[54anickel]

41. The Long-Term Consequences of The Long-Term Bailout

http://www.fallstreet.com/aug1606.php

After the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) the regulatory bodies had a window of opportunity to enact substantial change. To be sure, as LTCM’s massive positions put the fear of God into counterparties and volatility in the financial markets erupted, all the regulatory bodies needed to do was watch LTCM burn and then utter the word ‘regulation’. Almost everyone would have signed-on, and those that tried not to would have been looked at as if they had something to hide.

Unfortunately, instead of exacting change the powers that be opted to gather the relevant parties into a room and help orchestrate a bailout. It may be unsettling to think that the world’s most sophisticated financial apparatus is, from time to time, held together by a bunch of bankers sitting in a room arguing about what to do about defaulted trades. But in 1998 this is exactly what happened.

On the surface, calls for the regulation of private investment might seem rather draconian. After all, if rich people want to privately pool their money and make leveraged bets on a roulette wheel, so be it. However, when these leveraged and largely secretive bets cause ripples throughout the entire public financial system, regulatory oversight might be required to ensure that market integrity is not at risk. For that matter, regulation appears all the more necessary the more the net consequence of these “private” gambles threatens to spill outside the symbolic casino. Where the casino can threaten to bust the real economy rather than just one of its players, it would be negligent to advocate otherwise.

In sum, given the knowledge that hedge fund assets are growing rapidly, and that the typical investor exposed to hedge funds is less and less well-heeled, the need for hedge fund regulation would appear to be greater today than ever before. Unfortunately no significant new regulatory efforts are in the pipeline. Rather, and to put it bluntly, the hedge funds - whose performance is arguably no better than the average mutual fund (See Malkiel & Saha) and whose managers are paid dramatically more than others - have won the fight versus regulators. If only the Federal Reserve Board had watched LTCM burn…

more...

[54anickel]

51. 3:43 - has the paint dried yet?

Dow 11,347.05 -34.42 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,151.46 -12.49 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,298.56 -3.74 (-0.29%)
10-yr Bond 4.819 -0.016 (-0.33%)
30-yr Bond 4.964 -0.009 (-0.18%)
NYSE Volume 1,576,140,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,181,471,000

3:30 pm : Stocks are regaining some momentum going into the close as the Technology sector paring some of its losses lifts the Nasdaq to its best level of the day. However, sellers continue to have the upper hand as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Sure, five economic sectors are now in the green, but all five -- Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Telecom and Materials -- are also the least influential areas that make up the S&P 500 and their gains remain modest at best.DJ30 -32.85 NASDAQ -13.21 SP500 -3.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2004/978/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1960/1287/940 mln

3:00 pm : Indices continue to sport broad-based losses as a negative bias remains intact with only an hour left in the trading day. Be that as it may, the lack of participation, as the Big Board runs the risk of barely seeing 1 bln shares exchange hands today, lends little conviction behind the bears' lackluster efforts to consolidate gains after such an impressive run last week that lifted the Dow and S&P 500 to three-month highs and left the Nasdaq with its best weekly gain in more than three years.DJ30 -45.27 NASDAQ -17.37 SP500 -4.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2025/945/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1951/1275/828 mln

2:30 pm : Sellers remain in control of the action as rising oil prices continue to offer an excuse to consolidate recent market gains. Reports that a BP Texas refinery now expects to reach 300,000 barrels per day, 100,000 barrels short of forecasts, has pushed the commodity to its highest level of the day and back above $72.50 a barrel (+1.9%). Fortunately for the bulls, oil's recent spike higher has also been reflected in stronger leadership from the Energy sector (+0.8%), which is helping to offset the potential inflation ramifications of higher energy prices. DJ30 -45.89 NASDAQ -17.12 SP500 -4.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2012/937/956 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1968/1237/772 mln

2:00 pm : Stocks settle back into their intraday trading range but continue to trade in negative territory. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as decliners on the NYSE still hold a 19-to-12 advantage over advancers. Losses are even more pronounced on the Nasdaq, though, where declining issues hold a more than 2-to-1 edge over advancing issues while a 3-to-1 ratio of down to up volume paints even more of a bearish picture for the likes of tech stocks following such a huge run-up in the group last week. DJ30 -41.47 NASDAQ -18.22 SP500 -4.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2023/914/862 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1955/1215/700 mln

1:30 pm : Recent recovery efforts are short-lived as crude oil retracing session highs continues to act as a headwind. With policy makers recently citing higher energy prices as putting upward pressure on overall inflation and Lowe's (LOW 28.27 -1.25) confirming as much after trimming its full-year profit outlook, renewed concerns about more broad-based earnings deceleration continues to weigh on the proceedings. Crude for September delivery (+1.1%) has been in positive territory all day as Iran's nuclear ambitions heighten possible supply disruptions but the commodity has also been somewhat volatile since the contract expires tomorrow. DJ30 -41.03 NASDAQ -18.33 SP500 -4.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1989/924/806 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1900/1259/648 mln

1:00 pm : Market bounces off its worst levels of the day but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. Consumer Staples recently turning positive has been the most noticeable reason behind the broader market paring some of its losses. However, the sector's defensive characteristics as well as its top performing industry group -- Agricultural Products (+1.1%) -- trading in sympathy with rising oil prices (i.e. ethanol as an alternative energy source), offer little confidence that the underlying bias is improving all that much. DJ30 -33.78 NASDAQ -18.15 SP500 -4.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2040/868/742 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1988/1129/596 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as investors begin to work their way through the New York lunch hour. The Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the downside (-1.0%), which is no big surprise since the tech-heavy Composite turned in twice as good a performance as the Dow (-0.4%) last week. With the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index up 10% last week, acting as the Nasdaq's largest source of support over the last few days, it's also no shocker to see chip stocks receiving the brunt off selling pressure today. DJ30 -48.27 NASDAQ -21.10 SOX -2.5% SP500 -5.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2050/828/678 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2027/1098/538 mln

12:00 pm : On the heels of the longest winning streak in five months, stocks opened lower and remain in consolidation mode midday.

With the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 2.6%, 2.8% and 5.2%, respectively, last week, concerns that the bullish reaction to last week's tame inflation data was overdone have questioned the sustainability of the biggest stock rally in five months, especially with wages still on the rise and knowing that "high levels of resource utilization" that the Fed likes to refer to have not eased.

Couple overbought conditions with a Q2 earnings miss from Lowe's Companies (LOW 28.19 -1.33) and higher energy prices, which the home improvement retailer cited as a reason behind cutting its full-year earnings outlook (again), and buyers have found little incentive to extend the recent rally.

Among the seven economic sectors losing ground, Technology (-1.2%) -- last week's best performer -- is pacing the way lower, as investors consolidate gains in everything from semiconductors to communication equipment, two of the sector's biggest drivers last week. Consumer Discretionary, a beneficiary of oil's more than 4% decline last week, is a close second among today's biggest laggards amid a 1% rebound in the price of crude, the disappointing report from Lowe's and an analyst downgrade on Ford Motor (F 7.55 -0.45). Another notable leader to the downside and stalling some of the market's recent momentum is the Industrials sector (-0.8%), which was also among last week's top three performers.

Energy, however, is taking advantage of oil's second advance in as many days, but the sector's modest 0.4% gain has hardly been enough to offset an underlying market tone that remains bearish for the time being. DJ30 -48.11 DJTA -1.9% DJUA +0.3% DOT -1.5% NASDAQ -20.83 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.1% SOX -2.3% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -5.62 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1938/871/608 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1888/1162/482 mln

11:30 am : Stocks remain mired in a tight trading range, as investors find few catalysts to spur any follow-through buying interest. In fact, with recent economic data, especially tame core-inflation figures (e.g. PPI, CPI), fueling much of last week's rally, the absence of any reports on the economic calendar until existing home sales hits the wires on Wednesday has also left the door open for sellers to jump back in an express their concerns about overbought conditions amid signs of slowing economic growth. DJ30 -36.32 NASDAQ -17.30 SP500 -4.04 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1924/849/512 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1877/1116/404 mln

11:00 am : More of the same for the indices as stocks continue to languish near session lows. Bonds, however, are trading near their best levels of the morning, extending their biggest rally in three months and pushing the yield on the 10-year note to its lowest since March (4.82%) as continued geopolitical uncertainty (i.e. Iran refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment program) keeps a flight-to-quality bid intact. Nonetheless, with the rate-sensitive Financials sector up a 2.7% last week, paced by a 4.6% surge on the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (-1.6%), the continued decline in borrowing costs has merely minimized consolidation efforts throughout the S&P 500's most influential sector. DJ30 -37.66 NASDAQ -16.69 SP500 -4.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1839/897/430 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1759/1199/336 mln

[54anickel]

52. Show & tell your kids about debt

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-08-19T133051Z_01_N152539_RTRUKOC_0_US-COLUMN-FINANCE.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage2

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It's not your fault. Mind games you learned as a child might be to blame for that rising MasterCard balance.

"We make decisions about money and debt and spending from what we saw as children," says Stephanie Jaeger, a consultant whose "Mind Over Money" business counsels everyone from currency traders to cash-crunched young adults. "Most people have experiences ... (as children) that they spend the rest of their lives recreating."

Jaeger's theory is that people overspend and get into trouble with debt because they are using their adults powers to soothe their childhood hurts. Someone who heard "no!" all the time as a child might like to go shopping and say "yes!" to himself, for example.

People are taught, in very subtle ways, that money is laden with messages that they need to address. One person might think money is dirty or tainted, and need to get rid of it as soon as possible... by spending, of course. Another might think they have to spend profligately to feel good about themselves.

There are myriad other emotional reasons why people get into debt. Some people just feel stressed out from too many responsibilities and too little time; they tell themselves they "deserve" some new reward. Others shop because they get an emotional rush from the excitement of it, or spend excessively on family members because they feel guilty about other attention not paid, or to prove to themselves or others that they are worthy.

Of course, not every debt problem is caused by bad attitudes or psychological troubles. Sometimes health problems, job problems, or just the high cost of living can leave you with big balances. But to the extent that attitudes and past family patterns contribute to big debts, you can attack the debts by fixing those attitudes and using some tricks of the psychologist's trade.

more...

[54anickel]

53. Can taxation curb obesity?

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9787-can-taxation-curb-obesity.html

Food and drinks high in sugar should be taxed just like cigarettes, say economists who believe it is the only way to combat the global crisis in obesity.

"When two-thirds of the population of countries like Australia or the US are obese or overweight, you can't handle the problem with simple solutions like education," Barry Popkin of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, told a meeting of agricultural economists on Queensland's Gold Coast this week. Instead, he says, governments need to impose tariffs to replicate the success of tobacco taxes in reducing smoking.

snip>

He proposes a series of tailor-made pricing incentives. Wealthy countries such as the US and Australia would tax sugar added to drinks, while China should target cheap, widely consumed high-calorie oils such as soybean.

"The impact of taxes, subsidies and trade restrictions on consumption needs to be carefully looked at," agrees Boyd Swinburn of Deakin University in Melbourne, Australia. This week he and colleagues argue in the International Journal of Pediatric Obesity (vol 1, p 133) that the economic drive towards eating more and exercising less represents a failure of the free market that governments must act to reverse.

more...

What a bunch of BS. The food industry has been getting away with murder, the government entities that were suppose to regulate them for "the public good" were bought out long ago. They use sugars to make up for the flavor lost in the "fat-free healthy" choices. They constantly fight against honestly labeling foods (trans fat being the latest battle). The damned food companies would be selling arsenic laden beverages if there was a market for them - as long as they can turn a profit and didn't have to put it on the label....free markets baby! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

56. sweeping the floor and closing the door

Dow 11,345.05 -36.42 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,147.75 -16.20 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,297.52 -4.78 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.819 -0.016 (-0.33%)

NYSE Volume 1,820,991,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,366,929,000

Stocks snapped a five-day winning streak Monday as concerns that rising oil prices may crimp corporate profitability invited some modest profit taking that left last week's top performers among the day's biggest laggards.

On the heels of its best weekly performance in five months and a rally that lifted the broader market to three-month highs, it wasn't a huge surprise to see at least some sellers express their concerns about overbought conditions amid signs of slowing economic growth. To wit, a second quarter earnings shortfall from Lowe's Companies (LOW 28.35 -1.17) and higher energy prices, which the home improvement retailer cited as a reason behind cutting its full-year earnings outlook for the second time this year, left investors wondering if the bullish reaction to last week's tame inflation data was overdone. Crude oil surged 1.9% to $72.50 a barrel after Iran said it will defy a U.N resolution and keep enriching uranium.

As a result, Consumer Discretionary, a beneficiary of oil's more than 4% decline last week, turned in the day's worst performance following oil's second advance in as many days, the disappointing report from Lowe's and an analyst downgrade on Ford Motor (F 7.47 -0.53). An even more influential sector losing ground was Technology, as evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue chip counterparts to the downside. With the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index up 10% last week, acting as the tech-heavy Composite's largest source of support, it was understandable to see chip stocks receive the brunt of selling pressure today.

Another notable leader to the downside that stalled some of the market's upward bias was Industrials, which was also among last week's top three performers, while Energy, last week's only sector to post a loss, regained some momentum but not nearly enough to offset higher energy prices which the Fed recently cited as putting upward pressure on overall inflation.

On a positive note, Monday marked the lowest volume day of the year for the NYSE, lending little conviction behind the bears' lackluster efforts to consolidate gains after such an impressive run-up last week. BTK -0.7% DJ30 -36.42 DJTA -2.1% DJUA +0.1% DOT -1.4% NASDAQ -16.20 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -0.9% SOX -2.1% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -4.78 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2004/1027/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1901/1350/1.11 bln

[54anickel]

57. Thanks UIA, meant to swing by and clean up but got distracted by

life again. I'll catch the lights. :hi: